Pandemic Workshop

Influenza PandemicInfluenza Pandemic WorkshoppKen SimpsonKen Simpson

The VR Group Pty LtdSeptember 2006

http://www blog vrg net au© 2005, The VR Group Pty Ltd, All Rights reserved

http://www.blog.vrg.net.au

AgendaAgenda

© 2005, The VR Group Pty Ltd, All Rights reserved

Briefing on Pandemic InfluenzaBriefing on Pandemic Influenza

• What is it?• How does it spread?p• Likely impacts• Challenges• Challenges


Some definitionsSome definitions• Influenza• Influenza

– Influenza (the flu) is a very infectious illness caused by a virus. It is much more serious than a common cold and can leave you ill for up to 10 days.

– Symptoms of the flu include: a high fever, headache, muscle aches and pains, fatigue cough sore throat or a runny nose It may take up to three days to feelfatigue, cough, sore throat, or a runny nose. It may take up to three days to feel symptoms after you catch the flu (the incubation period).

– Anyone can get the flu – being fit, active and healthy does not protect you from getting this virus.

• Avian Influenza– Avian influenza refers to a large group of different influenza viruses that primarily

affect birds. – On rare occasions, these bird viruses can infect other species, including pigs and

humans. The vast majority of avian influenza viruses do not infect humans. – We are not planning for Avian Influenza

• H5N1– Is a specific influenza subtype– Avian H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt

i t t i th t i t i h


into a strain that is contagious among humans

Pandemic InfluenzaPandemic Influenzai h t l i f• … is what we are planning for

• Pandemic is an Epidemic occurring simultaneously in g ymultiple countries

• Pandemic requires 3 conditionsconditions– A new virus emerges which has

not previously infected humans therefore nobody has antibodiestherefore nobody has antibodies to fight it (Avian H5N1 strain)

– The virus makes humans seriously illy

– The virus is capable of efficient human to human transmission


Pandemics are not newPandemics are not new

• They are (rare but) recurring events• There were 3 in the 20th CenturyThere were 3 in the 20 Century

– 1918, Spanish FluE ti t d 40 50 illi d d• Estimated 40-50 million dead

– 1957, Asian Influenza• Estimated 2 million deaths

– 1968, Hong Kong Flu• Estimated 1 million deaths


Pandemic and Business ContinuityPandemic and Business Continuity

B i C ti it i d ith IMPACT• Business Continuity is concerned with IMPACT not LIKELIHOOD

• Pandemic influenza will leverage existing BC capabilitiescapabilities– Incident Management– Mission Critical Activities– Minimum operating requirements

• Specific threat, may not match previous planningGl b l i t– Global impact

– Longer-term


More definitionsMore definitions

• WHO Phases– Adapted by Dept of Health for Australia

• Vaccine• Anti-viralsAnti virals


More definitionsMore definitions

• WHO Phases• Vaccine

– Not currently available– Not expected until approx 6 p pp

months after the outbreak• Anti-Virals

– Medication that may reduce the impact of the symptoms

– Seen in some quarters as having potential for use to prevent illness (prophylaxis)


– Are in very short supply

Spreading the virusSpreading the virusD l• Droplet

– occurs when large (greater than or equal to five micrometre diameter) droplets are generated, propelled a distance of up to one metre and deposited on the mouth, nose or eyes of another person.

i l t t th d l t d t i d d i th– requires close contact as the droplets do not remain suspended in the air and generally only travel short distances (usually a metre or less).

• Contact– occurs when skin to skin contact results in the physical transfer of micro-occu s e s to s co tact esu ts t e p ys ca t a s e o c o

organisms. – can also occur when a virus contaminates a person’s hand and then that

person touches his or her mouth, nose or eyes. – Indirect transmission occurs when the virus is transferred to a person’s

eyes mouth or nose after coming into contact with a contaminatedeyes, mouth or nose after coming into contact with a contaminated object or surface.

– Influenza A and B viruses have been shown to survive on hard, non-porous surfaces for 24–48 hours, on cloth, paper and tissue for less than 8–12 hours and on hands for 5 minutes.

• Airborne– When smaller (less than five micrometres diameter) droplets or dust

particles containing the infectious agent are produced (e.g. from the evaporation of water from larger droplets) which remain suspended in


evaporation of water from larger droplets) which remain suspended in the air, are dispersed by air currents, and may be inhaled by a person who is some distance from the source patient.

Basic mitigation strategiesBasic mitigation strategiesP l P t ti• Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

M k– Masks– Gloves

Protective eyewear– Protective eyewear• Hand Hygiene

Washing– Washing– Alcohol-gel

• Cough/Sneeze

• Social Distancing– Isolation• Cough/Sneeze

etiquette – Quarantine– Avoiding crowds


Comparison to SARSComparison to SARS

• 1918 Spanish Flu– 6 months to spread

• SARS– Within weeks had

around the world– Travelled around the

ld th ti i

spread to 8 countries

world three times in two years

• In an era when a plane

– Possible that modern influenza pandemic

ld d d• In an era when a plane couldn’t fly across the Atlantic

could spread around the world in 30-60 daysdays


Spreading the virus 747 styleSpreading the virus – 747 style


Likely impactsLikely impacts• Primarily a people impact• Not a single incident

– Pandemic “waves” (approx 8-12 weeks in duration)

– Can expect 3 waves, perhaps Ca e pect 3 a es, pe apsover 2 year period

• Disrupt global supply chains• Can be expected to have a

significant economic impact


Random thoughtsRandom thoughts

• WHO Phases do not always translate well to Corporate planningp p g

• Need to monitor for Trigger eventsTh t l bl t t th b i• The most valuable asset to the business will be a staff member who has had influenza and recovered

• De-escalation from WHO 6 is as important• De-escalation from WHO 6 is as important to manage as the escalation


Standard Business Continuity Phases

P ti• Prevention– Things we do to reduce the likelihood or impact

P d• Preparedness– Being prepared to execute the Response/Recovery

phasesphases• Response

To various trigger points– To various trigger points– Also includes business resumption activities

• Recovery• Recovery– Will include the de-escalation between “waves”


Challenges for usChallenges for us

• Support essential business processes/service delivery

• Support for remote working• Increased focus on Service DeskIncreased focus on Service Desk

process– Increase in number of staff workingIncrease in number of staff working

in unfamiliar jobs with unfamiliar systems


Action PlanAction Plan

• Model impact on business• Determine Trigger Pointsgg• Action Plans

– People issuesPeople issues– Operational issues– Consider reactions byConsider reactions by

government• Borders• Schools


Impact ModellingImpact Modelling600

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5% 12% 15% 25% 40% 50% 55% 50% 40% 30% 25% 10%


Absenteeism Remote Access

Impact ModellingImpact Modelling1000

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Min Staffing Absenteeism

Trigger PointsTrigger Points

WHO d t Ph 4• WHO upgrade to Phase 4• WHO upgrade to Phase 5 in any countrypg y y• Australian DOHA declaration of Phase 6

AUSAUS• First case in our company

S• Schools closed• Borders closed• De-escalation from AUS 6c


Identification of critical Process/ Services

Wh t th ?• What are they?• What are the essential

t f thcomponents of the service?

P l– People– Process

Technology– Technology• Are there any critical

suppliers that thissuppliers that this service relies on?


Any Questions?


Pandemic Workshop

Health & Medicine

Transcript of Pandemic Workshop