GEWEX GEWEX Kevin Trenberth: Chair SSG

Peter van Oevelen: Director IGPOD. Lettenmaeir, J. Polcher (GHP)

C. Kummerrow (GRP)B. van den Hurk, M. Best (GLASS)

J. Petch, C Bretherton (GCSS) B. Holtslag, G. Svensson (GABLS)

1Pan-GEWEX Meeting Seattle, Washington, 23-28 August 2010

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Summary

MOST IMPORTANT ACCOMPLISHMENTS by GEWEX in 2010-11

• “GEWEX Imperatives: Plans for 2013 and Beyond” living document: drafted, reviewed and available in response to JSC guidelines for the future. This outlines the future directions of GEWEX.

• The GEWEX Newsletter has been published quarterly to keep all interested parties informed about the process and activities.

• The Pan-GEWEX meeting: successful in late August 2010 (Seattle, Washington); provided a vibrant interactive forum for different GEWEX Panels to interact with each other and with many program managers and representatives from other parts of WCRP, GWSP, and so on.

• A major workshop on climate extremes: led by GEWEX on behalf of the WCRP at UNESCO in September 2010. A full report is now available and an article has appeared in Eos.

• Special session on WCRP projects at Jan 2011 AMS meeting.3

The Tools

GEWEX achieves its goals through data set development andanalysis, process studies and model improvement

Domains

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J. Polcher

GMPP GCSS/GABLS=GASS, GLASS

- Model Parameterization and development from land surface process to atmospheric processes- Cloud process descriptions, parameterizations and model, data sets and tools, intercomparisons- Atmospheric Boundary layer studies, descriptions and intercomparison studies (diurnal cycle)- Strong cooperation with Numerical Prediction Centers and weather forecasting “through” WGNE - Land surface feed back/coupling studies- http://www.gewex.org/gcss_gabls_panel.html- http://www.gewex.org/glass_panel.html

GRP

- Radiative processes and understanding- Global Data sets on radiative and turbulent fluxes- Global In-situ observational networks, development and standardization (radiation, soil moisture)- Development and improvement of radiative transfer codes- Intercomparison studies and assessment-http://www.gewex.org/projects-GRP.htm

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CEOP GHP

-Globally distributed extensive regional data sets covering water and energy cycle observations (in situ and space borne and modeling data)- Data management system / GEO Prototype for Water Cycle Observations- Regional Climate Modeling and Process Descriptions (Monsoons, Extremes, etc)- Hydrological Applications and Forecasting (Drought monitoring, Hydrological Ensemble Predictions…)- Coupling with Global Modeling and Global Data sets -http://www.gewex.org/projects-CEOP.htm

GEWEXGEWEX

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GEWEX Radiation PanelGEWEX Radiation Panel

Global Land-Atmospheric System Study Land Surface Processes GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel

Global Land-Atmospheric System Study Land Surface Processes GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel

GEWEX Cloud System StudyGEWEX Cloud System Study Atmospheric ProcessesAtmospheric ProcessesGEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer PanelGEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Panel

Some Key Issues for GEWEX

• The new GEWEX has adopted the mission of “land-atmosphere”

However GEWEX has also decided to be much more:

• GEWEX will continue to embrace the global energy and water cycles

• GEWEX also embraces activities spanning Earth system domains and other integrating themes o monsoonso extremes …

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GEWEX : post 2013

New name*: GEWEXGEWEX

Global and regional Global and regional

Energy and Water Energy and Water

ExchangesExchanges

9* To be approved

GEWEX: post 2013

Vision statement

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Water and energy are fundamental for life on Earth.  Fresh water is a major pressure point for society owing to increasing demand and vagaries of climate.

Extremes of droughts, heat waves and wild fires wild fires as well as floods, heavy rains and intense storms increasingly threaten to cause havoc as the climate changes. Other challenges exist on how clouds affect energy and climate.   Better observations and analysis of these phenomena, and improving our ability to model and predict them, will contribute to increasing information needed by society and decision makers for future planning.

GEWEX: post 2013

Mission statement

To measure and predict global and regional energy and water variations, trends, and extremes (such as heat waves, floods and droughts), through improved observations and modeling of land, atmosphere and their interactions; thereby providing the scientific underpinnings of climate services.

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To measure and predict global and regional energy and water variations, trends, and extremes (such as heat waves, floods and droughts), through improved observations and modeling of land, atmosphere and their interactions; thereby providing the scientific underpinnings of climate services.

Imperatives: HeadlinesDatasets: Foster development of climate data records of atmosphere, water,

land, and energy-related quantities, including metadata and uncertainty estimates.

Analysis: Describe and analyze observed variations, trends and extremes (such as heat waves, floods and droughts) in water and energy-related quantities.

Processes: Develop approaches to improve process-level understanding of energy and water cycles in support of improved land and atmosphere models.

Modeling: Improve global and regional simulations and predictions of precipitation, clouds, and land hydrology, and thus the entire climate system, through accelerated development of models of the land and atmosphere.

Applications: Attribute causes of variability, trends and extremes, and determine the predictability of energy and water cycles on global and regional bases in collaboration with the wider WCRP community.

Technology transfer: Develop diagnostic tools and methods, new observations, models, data management, and other research products for multiple uses and transition to operational applications in partnership with climate and hydro-meteorological service providers.

Capacity building: Promote and foster capacity building through training of scientists and outreach to the user community.

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Example: Imperatives: 1DATASETS: Foster development of climate data records of

atmosphere, water, land, and energy-related quantities, including metadata and uncertainty estimates.

Lead: GRP, GHP; Partners: SCOPE-CM, CEOS, WOAP, GCOSActions: • Reprocess GEWEX datasets, provide advice on other efforts and lead

evaluations.• Continue evaluation and refinement of sensor algorithms, influencing next

generation space-born platforms and reprocessing.• Development of appropriate calibration/validation/evaluation datasets to

confront models.• Devise robust ways of dealing with the more diverse, complex, higher spatial

and temporal resolution, and much greater volumes of data.• Build on CEOP (GHP) experience in data management, archival and access.

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Reinvigoration of GEWEX Panels

• GRP is focused on reprocessing the GEWEX datasets and a major workshop took place in April at ESRIN in Frascati, Italy;

• GMPP no longer exists and a new framework has been set in place to organize the modeling within GEWEX and some reorganization has taken place;

• CEOP has been substantially revamped and is now called the GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP), with new leadership and new directions. – A new Regional Hydroclimate Project (HYMEX) focused

on the Mediterranean region is now included and– Plans are underway for a new RHP in North America

(TRACE).

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CEOP GHP

18Regional water

cycles

Terrestrial Regional North American Hydroclimate Experiment (TRACE)

CEOP GHP

There has been considerable modeling within CEOP of 2 kinds:1.Regional Hydroclimate Project modeling, which can

range from detailed hydrologic models over catchments or river basins, to regional climate modeling such as now given by CORDEX

2.Global and intercontinental transferability• The MAC: Multi-model Analysis for CEOP (Bosilovich et al 2009)

Global models in GCSS/GABLS and GLASS should enable interactions with RHPs which provide local expertise and datasets for validation etc, in context of global processes.

• How to do this remains a challenge?

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Revitalizing GHP

• CEOP reference sites vs flux towers• 10 year data set; mission creep => WOAP• Archive for regional projectsNew Phase• Need to reinvigorate RHPs

– Type I (core; criteria) and type II (affiliated)

• Stronger hydrological activities: foster the next generation of hydrologically realistic land surface schemes (cf home for PILPS)

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GEWEX ModelingGMPP removed

GCSS and GABLS to be combined: now GASS (GEWEX Atmospheric System Study)

Replace the GCSS working groups and their chairs by an SSC that oversees projects (about 8?)

Projects proposed to SSC by any member of community

There will be a small set of criteria a project has to fulfill (e.g., leadership, timeline, plan)

GABLS will be integrated into this structure and its participants will propose projects

GLASS and GASS represent the SSG in WGNE

GHP hydrological modeling is largely separate

GHP has agreed to consider hosting CORDEX

GEWEXGEWEX

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paleoCLIVAR

• TOGA, WOCE => CLIVAR• Co-chairs Trenberth, Allyn Clarke (CA)• Dir (Mike Coughlan => Lydia Dumenil (Gates) (Temp)

=> John Gould (joint WOCE)• Workshops: scoping: Initial Implementation Plan

– Role of oceans– Climate variability and predictability: all time scales

• JSC

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How do GEWEX activities fit into a new WCRP structure?

• Core projects retained but with revised responsibilities to facilitate climate system research at the interface of the physical Earth system components:

o Ocean-atmosphere (think CLIVAR)o Land-atmosphere (think GEWEX)o Cryosphere (think CliC)o Stratosphere-troposphere (think SPARC)

• Within each core project there is a common set of basic “themes”:

o Observations and analysiso Model development, evaluation and experimentso Processes and understandingo Applications and serviceso Capacity building

Main proposals from JSC-31Where is the atmosphere?Everywhere, yet nowhere!What are the implications

for GEWEX?

Where is the atmosphere?Everywhere, yet nowhere!What are the implications

for GEWEX?

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Key issues joint with CLIVAR

What will CLIVAR become post 2013?• Ocean-atmosphere plus what? O’CLIVAR?• Presumably: Ocean in all respects• Surface fluxes over ocean• Atmosphere? Over ocean? Global? How high above the

ocean (SPARC?)JSC Action item 5: CLIVAR to re-examine the Project substructure

at upcoming SSG, including whether elements of CLIVAR may have a better home elsewhere in WCRP, and address the issue of a name change via consultation with early career scientists in CLIVAR.

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Key issues joint with CLIVAR

GEWEX:• Global atmosphere: GRP• Modeling atmosphere: GASS, MJO TF etc…• Monsoons (AMMA, VACS, CORDEX; etc)

– AAMP, VAMOS, RHPs

• Extremes (where should ETCCDI be?)• Drought (occurs on land; forced by SSTs etc) • Surface fluxes

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JSC Action items

12: CLIVAR and GEWEX Projects to use CORDEX as a framework to develop a strategy on monsoons for Africa.

14: The Projects to present restructuring ideas at the JSC meeting following the OSC.

16: JPS and core projects to firm up membership information before presenting to the JSC (i.e. full names, gender, nationality, initial start date, area of expertise).

• JSC to receive membership information in advance of the JSC meeting.• For membership, JSC requests, once again, that projects nominate at least

two names for consideration for each open slot.

24/30: Is there a “grand challenge” for CLIVAR?

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Framework for Atmospheric Model

Enhancement (FAME)Mission: Improving the representation of physical and dynamical processes in the troposphere in models for all purposes and especially weather and climate services

IngredientsPBL (GABLS)Clouds and Convection (GCSS)Radiation (shared with GRP and SPARC)Coupling to dynamical processesCoupling to numerics

FAMEResides within GEWEX: endorsed by SSG

maintains links to GLASSpotentially good links to LAMs and RHPsnatural focus on energy and water cycledeals with “fast processes”Will raise visibility of atmospheric model developmentNeeds to integrate with regional modeling (such as CORDEX)Should this be broadened to replace GMPP and include RHP modeling?

FAME: post 2013

We need a better way to organize modeling within GEWEX

Could become a working group or panel within GEWEX but serving all of WCRP: CLIVAR, CliC, SPARC and feeding into other modeling WGs.

WG on Atmospheric Processes and model development for climate (WGAP)?

Involve all projects: operate similarly to WGSIP in CLIVAR on behalf of WCRP

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Pan-WCRP & WMO

Cross-cutting studies:

MonsoonsExtremes

Monsoons

Monsoon crosscuts Concern that, once again, because monsoons cut

across land and ocean domains, they may not be adequately addressed in new WCRP structure

Models do not simulate monsoons well How much is resolution (e.g. of topography, land-sea

divide)? Can models simulate the floods in Pakistan, China,

India in summer 2010, and in Australia in their summer 2010-11?

Are there major themes that can focus coordination?

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WCRP extremes workshop

Workshop on metrics and methodologies of estimation of extreme climate events: WCRP-UNESCO (GEWEX/CLIVAR/IHP)

• UNESCO, Paris: 27-30 Sept 2010• Chair: Olga Zolina• 132 from 32 countries• Oral, poster, discussion sessions; 3 Breakout

Groups• Community white paper, Eos and BAMS(?) article• http://www.extremeworkshop.org/Goal: To provide much improved observational datasets

and model capabilities on variability and extremes, especially those that have high impacts on society and the environment; and develop a climate information system that include predictions and assessments of future changes in risk from extremes. 33

Extremes in models Evaluate and develop models wrt replication of extremes:

Methods for comparing model grid point values with observations. Establish extreme-related measures for evaluation of models.

Archives must include high frequency data. Hourly data: pdfs

Assess ability and utility of models wrt extremes (not good) Resolution; parameterizations (e.g. convection) Phenomena, confidence in physics

Set up CMIP5 analysis projects focused on extremes Derive certain mandatory statistics

What do these mean for impacts: downscaling? Improvements of models (intensity, frequency of precip etc) Improvements in resolution

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Key issues joint with CLIVAR

• Global atmosphere??– Observations: space, in situ– Process studies and field programs: GASS, MJO TF – Modeling– Regional climate working group: GEWEX and CLIVAR

regional panels(?), interface with services

• Extremes: Grand challenge?– (where should ETCCDI be?)

• Monsoons: mainly rains? Land and ocean– Africa: AMMA, VACS, CORDEX; etc– AAMP, VAMOS, RHPs– Themes for coordination?

• Drought (occurs on land; forced by SSTs etc) 37