PRESENTER Khadija tahir MPA Roll no 02

ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN 21st CENTURY

IS PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY ON THE VERGE OF COLLAPSE

Facts firstEconomic indicators GDP (purchasing power

parity)$514.6 billion (2012 est.) $496.3 billion (2011 est.) $481.7 billion (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars

GDP (official exchange rate) $230.5 billion (2012 est.)

GDP - real growth rate 3.7% (2012 est.) 3% (2011 est.) 3.1% (2010 est.)

GDP - per capita (PPP) $2,900 (2012 est.) $2,800 (2011 est.) $2,800 (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars

Continued…GDP - composition by sector agriculture: 20.1% 

industry: 25.5% services: 54.4% (2012 est.)

Population below poverty line 22.3% (FY05/06 est.)

Labor force 60.36 million note: extensive export of labor, mostly to the Middle East, and use of child labor (2012 est.)

Labor force - by occupation agriculture: 45.1% industry: 20.7% services: 34.2% (2010 est.)

Unemployment rate 5.6% (2012 est.) 5.6% (2011 est.) note: substantial underemployment exists

Unemployment, youth ages 15-24

total: 7.7% male: 7% female: 10.5% (2008)

Household income or consumption by percentage share

lowest 10%: 9.9% highest 10%: 39.3% (FY07/08)

Distribution of family income - Gini index

30.6 (FY07/08) 41 (FY98/99)

Investment (gross fixed) 10.9% of GDP (2012 est.)

Budget revenues: $29.51 billion expenditures: $44.19 billion (2012 est.)

Taxes and other revenues 12.8% of GDP (2012 est.)

Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-) -6.4% of GDP (2012 est.)

Public debt 50.4% of GDP (2012 est.) 60.1% of GDP (2011 est.)

Inflation rate (consumer prices) 11.3% (2012 est.) 11.9% (2011 est.)

Agriculture - products cotton, wheat, rice, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables; milk, beef, mutton, eggs

Industries textiles and apparel, food processing, pharmaceuticals, construction materials, paper products, fertilizer, shrimp

Industrial production growth rate 3% (2011 est.)

Current Account Balance -$4.632 billion (2012 est.) $268 million (2011 est.)

Exports $24.66 billion (2012 est.) $26.3 billion (2011 est.)

Exports - partners US 15%, UAE 9.7%, Afghanistan 9.5%, China 9.2%, UK 5%, Germany 4.5% (2012 est.)

Imports $40.82 billion (2012 est.) $38.93 billion (2011 est.)

Imports - partners UAE 17.2%, China 15%, Saudi Arabia 11.2%, Kuwait 8.9%, Malaysia 5.4%, Japan 4.3% (2012 est.)

Reserves of foreign exchange and gold

$13.5 billion (30 November 2012 est.) $18.09 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Debt - external $55.98 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $58.27 billion (31 December 2011 est.)

Exchange rates Pakistani rupees (PKR) per US dollar 95.1 (2012 est.) 86.3434 (2011 est.) 85.194 (2010 est.) 81.71 (2009) 70.64 (2008)

History, shows that Pakistan's economic trajectory, since 1947, has been erratic and

inconsistent, and yet it has escaped the fate of a failed state. 

History at Glance Immediately after Independence Pakistan inherited one of the largest irrigation

systems a well-connected road and railway system did not take advantage of existing provisions de-capitalisation of resources. only two textile mills and one cement plant by

the British.

Ayub Khan's era witnessed an average growth rate of 5.4 per cent

'Golden Age' the 'role model' food prices stabilised increase in public and private investments seven families 91.6 per cent of private domestic deposits and 84.4 per cent of assets widespread protests downfall of the Ayub regime.

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto's (1972-77) socialist policies large scale nationalization Popular belief is that nationalization harmed the

economy drastically consequences similar to the previous government expulsion of the Bhutto Government.

Zia ul-Haq's regime (1977-1988) inflow of US aid Soviet invasion of Afghanistan $0.5 billion in 1978 to $3.2 billion in loans remittances of close to $25 billion increase in fixed investments from 15.5 to 16.77

per cent of the GDP  Investments in textiles increased from 17.9 in

1977 to 37.4 in 1988 Average export growth rate also rose from 10.32

(1973-78) to 14.33 per cent (1978-88)

Both democratic regimes of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were burdened with multi-faceted pressures that included debt servicing, reduced aid after the end of cold war, fall in remittances after the Gulf boom of the 80's fizzled out, restrictions after nuclear testing and serious law and order crisis. 

General Pervez Musharraf's regime (1999-2008) return of capital flow and workers' remittances that were earlier absorbed into the black market 9/11 people preferred to go through the official line The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan war led to huge inflow of foreign assistance the exchange reserves hit $4 billion thereby stabilising the

economy The growth rate hit close to 8 per cent in 2005 moment of rejoicing was short-lived consumption and imports (leading to 'overheat' of the economy

PPP led government (2008-2012) inherited an economy in shambles bad policy decisions of the past and the global financial

crisis.  Spending on development fixed investment took a back seat The investment rate was 13.4 percent in 2011 supposedly the lowest the country had witnessed in 37

years The Foreign Direct Investment also declined fear of an 'imminent collapse' highly unstable political environment The 2010 floods

Conclusion The present economic scenario Fire-fighting measures Tide over the energy crisis

THANK YOU ….