PAKISTAN DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE 4

DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE

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Climate Change:The reality of our times


PAKISTAN


PAKISTAN

Development Advocate Pakistan provides a platformfor the exchange of ideas on key development issuesand challenges in Pakistan. Focusing on a speci�cdevelopment theme in each edition, this quarterlypublication fosters public discourse and presentsvarying perspectives from civil society, academia,government and development partners. Thepublication makes an explicit effort to include thevoices of women and youth in the ongoing discourse.A combination of analysis and public opinion articlespromote and inform debate on development ideaswhile presenting up-to-date information.

Editorial Board

Mr. Marc-André FrancheUNDP Country Director

Mr. Aadil MansoorAssistant Country Director/ChiefCrisis Prevention and Recovery Unit

Mr. Amir GorayaAssistant Country Director/ChiefDemocratic Governance Unit

Mr. Shakeel AhmadAssistant Country Director/ChiefDevelopment Policy Unit

Mr. James LittletonChief Technical AdvisorStrengthening Electoral and Legislative Processes

Ms. Fatimah InayetCommunications Analyst

DisclaimerThe views expressed here by external contributors or the members ofthe editorial board do not necessarily re�ect the official views of theorganizations they work for and that of UNDP’s.

EditorMaheen Hassan

Design and LayoutSyed Asfar Hussain Shah

Printed by: Agha Jee printers, Islamabad

United Nations Development Programme Pakistan4th Floor, Serena Business Complex,Khayaban-e-Suharwardy, Sector G-5/1,P. O. Box 1051,Islamabad, Pakistan

For contributions and feedback, please write to us at:[email protected]

ISBN: 978-969-8736-13-2

Shafqat KakakhelMember Board of Governors, Sustainable DevelopmentPolicy InstituteFormer Assistant Secretary General of UN

Arif Ahmed KhanSecretary,

Ministry of Climate Change

Pervez KhattakChief Minster,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Opinion

CONTENTSDecember 2015

Analysis

Saleem MandviwallaProvincial nominee for NFC - Sindh

www.twitter.com/undp_pakistan

www www.pk.undp.org

/undppakistan

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Interviews

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The National Climate Change PolicyFrameworkAly Zaman Ahsan Ranaand

Disaster Risk Reduction in Pakistan: CurrentStatus, Challenges and Ways ForwardAhmed Kamal

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Climate Change:

Re�ections on Issues, Challenges

and the Way Forward02

18Sustainable Development, Equity andViolenceDr. Akmal Hussain

21Climate Change: Perspective of aCivil Society OrganizationAisha Khan

23Climate Public Expenditure and InstitutionalReview (CPEIR): An Analysis of Key FindingsDr. Sajjad Akhtar

26 Pakistan's INDC: Where Did We Go WrongSohaib Jamali

Dr. Ghulam RasulDirector General,Pakistan Meteorological Department

Ambassador (Retd.) Shahid KamalFounder and Head of the Centre for Climate Research andDevelopment (CCRD),COMSATS Institute of Information Technology

Youth Voices

36 Youth voices from Balochistan

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Youth voices from Sindh

Youth voices from Punjab

Youth voices from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa39

2015 will be remembered for two landmark global agreements. InSeptember, UN member states endorsed the 2030 DevelopmentAgenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. Later in the year,196 parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Changeadopted the Paris Agreement at the conclusion of the UN ClimateChange Conference (COP21) in France.

2015 will also be remembered as the warmest on record withtemperature rises breaking the °1 C milestone above pre-industrialera average. A heat wave swept the globe including Sindh, where2,000 perished, reminding us of the increased intensity andfrequency of climatic events and its growing impact ondevelopment, particularly the poor and vulnerable.

It has now been �rmly established that climate change is theconsequence of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) and is caused byhuman activities.The severity of climate change and its effects are onthe rise. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SynthesisReport of 2014 pointed to an increase in global temperatures of 4°Ccontrary to initial estimates of about 3.5°C till 2100. Developingcountries are more vulnerable because of their dependence onagriculture and socioeconomic dynamics including their weakcapacities to cope with climate change challenges. It is alreadyevident. In 2008, more than 100 million people fell below thepoverty line largely due to food price hikes and low agricultureyields.

The world community is cognizant of the challenges of climatechange (CC). At the COP21, participating countries adopted the �rst-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The ambitiousagreement promises a global action plan to save the world from thecatastrophic effects of CC by limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

The COP21 agreement is indeed a great diplomatic success.However, the intentions in the Paris Agreement and actualcommitments in the form of Intended Nationally DeterminedContributions (INDCs) by governments do not connect with eachother. Estimates suggest that the combined impact of all the INDCs,if fully implemented, will account for 86 percent of GHG emissionsand will still result in global average temperature hikes above the 2°Cthreshold. Similarly, the intention of developed countries tomobilize 100 billion USD per year until 2025 is not only insufficientfor mitigation and adaptation measures, but also uncertain to berealized.

Pakistan is the eighth most vulnerable country to CC although itcontributes less than 0.5 percent to global GHG emissions. Eventslike the 2010 �oods resulted in the loss of 2000 human lives andeconomic losses equivalent to seven percent of the GDP recon�rmthat climate change is the most pressing and immediatedevelopment threat faced by this country. There is a clear and visibleshift in summer monsoon trends from north-east to north-west by arange of 80-100 km, threatening the agriculture sector. Increasingfrequency of other extreme weather events like cyclones, droughtsand glacial lake outburst �oods show that Pakistan is becomingincreasingly vulnerable to climate change.

Pakistan is conscious to the threats posed by climate change. TheNational Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2012 outlines themitigation and adaptation actions for combating the effects ofCC. Pakistan is one of the few countries to have undertaken aClimate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPIER) andhas established public expenditure and institutional benchmarks.Post the 18th amendment, climate change has largely become aprovincial subject and provinces must now take the lead. It isencouraging to note that some of the provinces have alreadystarted initiatives such as the“BillionTree Plantation Drive”.

The de�cit of engagement and action remains widespread,however. The INDC put forward by Pakistan for COP21 wasconsidered limited and devoid of any quantitative commitmentsand investment requirements for adaptation and mitigation. This,despite the many on-going adaptation measures already in place.Using the CPEIR, Pakistan could have spelled out in detail itsvulnerability to CC the way India, Indonesia and Zimbabwe did.This would have afforded Pakistan an opportunity to plead its CCrelated needs and priorities in front of lobbyists, donors andnegotiators across the globe. Pakistan can still revise its INDCs andshould do so.

Pakistan needs strong institutions to implement its NCCP. Theseverity of the CC threat and its cross cutting nature require a“whole of government” approach including parliament, �nance,planning and sectoral departments at all levels. The Medium TermBudgetary Frameworks of ministries should take into account CCeffects. The �nance and planning institutions at the federal andprovincial level should track CC related expenditure and progress.Provinces must integrate CC issues in their growth strategiesgiven its impact on poverty and social development.

Pakistan incurred six billion USD CC related losses in 2012. It needsto invest 5.5 percent of GDP annually for mitigation and 1.5-3percent for adaptation to address the effects of CC. For a 15percent reduction in GHG reduction, an annual investment ofaround eight billion USD is needed. Given the substantial globalshortfall in �nancing, Pakistan requires an overarching CC�nancing framework which can help streamline budgetallocations and ensure holistic response to CC challenges in thecountry.

The so far evidence on CC affirms that no will remain untouched ofits consequences. Developing countries will be most affected. It istime to act together. As UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon said,“there is no plan B, because there is no planet B”.

Editorial

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Climate hange:CT R O The eality of ur imes

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Analysis

Climate Change:Re�ections on Issues, Challengesand the Way Forward

IntroductionClimate change and associated emergentrisks are threatening the very existence ofm o d e r n c i v i l i z a t i o n w i t h a l l i t smagnanimous advances. Environment, ifinterpreted as a complex system, iscomposed of biotic and abiotic factors thatremain in constant need of adjustmentwith each other. It stretches to consensusthat current climate changes are notnatural and over t ly endanger thesustainable existence and sustenance oflife on Earth.

Despite some dissenting voices, climatechange has earned the consensus as anexistential threat to the world. Thanks tosophisticated advances in computingtechnologies, cl imate exper ts andscientists are recording and projectingunprecedented damages caused byclimate change the world over with thehighest fall on developing countries.Within the developing part of the world,the distribution of damages is skewedtowards the most deprived and vulnerablealready. Of the sectors of economy,agriculture stomachs the heaviest of theburden and stays most vulnerable to risingtemperatures, erratic rains and to extremeheat and cold waves. This exposure andvulnerability of the agriculture sector,consequently, affects the associatedsections of livestock and livelihoodsleaving bottom poor the most affected byclimate change.

Increase in temperatures, melting of ice atpoles, rising sea levels and overalldegradation of the ecosystem have badlyhurt the natural balance and exposed theglobe to a global crisis of climate. Given thehigher exposure coupled with lowera d a p t i v e c a p a c i t y , t h e h i g h e s tvulnerability is documented for poor livingin the developing part of the world. Otherthan the scale of damages, the rangethereof has emerged as a matter of seriousconcern also. In addition to health effectsand extreme weather generated disasters,the dependence of masses on agricultureand allied occupations in developingcountries is worsening the situation bythreatening the very source of earning

livelihood.

Pakistan is one of the most vulnerableco u n t r i e s to c l i m a te c h a n g e. Th eimportance of climate change for Pakistanis multifold amidst its prime reliance onagriculture, poor level of human andphysical capital, higher unemploymentrates, lower political will, poor researchcapacity and persistent massive poverty .�

Emergence of the Climate ChangeDiscourseGiven the realization of the severity of theissue and likely implications, three majorstrands of inquest emerge in discussionand debates on climate changes. First,what drives climate change? Second, andmore importantly, how to �ght thechanging climate? And third, how muchand from where is the �nance to come forthe battle against climate change. Theevidence unequivocally endorses that thedriving factors of climate change areanthropogenic. Greenhouse gases (GHG)are seen as the main culprit behind theincrease in temperature, sea rise andmelting of ice at poles in Greenland andHimalaya. Interestingly, developedcountries are held to be the largestcontributors to global warming throughhigher GHG emissions .�

The answer to the second question, basedon drivers of climate change, provides twooptions to combat the changing climate,namely mitigation and adaptation, wherethe former primarily falls in the hands ofthe developed world, while the latter isrelated to the developing countries.Mitigation involves a cut in GHG emissionsthrough applying environment friendlym e a n s o f p r o d u c t i o n , i n c l u d i n gtechnologies adopted and fuels used. Theuse of fossil fuel such as coal to produceenergy, has earned a great concern in thec o n t e x t o f G H G e m i s s i o n s f r o mdeveloping countries and renewableenergy production is considered to be aprimary mitigation tool with thesecountries. The innovation and distributionof green technology is to come from thedeveloped part of the world, primarilybecause of their ability to do so, so as to

enhance and strengthen mitigationefforts. The efforts seem ineffective so farfor multiple reasons including reluctanceon transferring green technology on partof the advanced nations, poor capacity ofdeveloping countries to adopt renewableenergy and limited �nancial supportavailable from the developed world.

It must, however, be realized that GHGemissions, even if cut down to the requiredlevel, guarantees no immediate reductionin the frequency and intensity of naturaldisasters. The momentum of changingclimate is expected to go long in time.G i v e n t h i s m o m e n t u m a n d t h econsiderably low option for effectivemitigation, adaptation came out as the keyto success for developing countries in thisr u n a g a i n s t c l i m a t e c h a n g e . T h edeveloping world has to adjust tochanging climate through continuouslyupdating their modes of business.A d a p t a t i o n s g r a b b e d s e r i o u sconsideration in the agriculture sector ofdeveloping economies. A plausible reasonm i g h t b e t h e p r i m a r y re l i a n ce o fdeveloping countries on the agriculturesector, in terms of its contribution toe m p l o y m e n t , i n c o m e a n d e x p o r tearnings. It is further argued, that alladaptations are not necessarily anintentional response to climate change.Some may be a product of a naturalprocess ongoing in time and space. Adivide, therefore, emerged betweenautonomous and planned adaptationswherein the former needs no specialefforts in terms of advocacy or �nance, buteffectiveness thereof remains a seriousconcern. The unanimous voicing forplanned adaptation, therefore, acted asthe pr imar y tool ava i lable to thedeveloping countries.

Planned adaptation, though a successfultool, is hard to come by and an organizedeffort connected at the local, national andglobal level appeared to be most crucial.The organization of this effort gave birth tothe third question- who will be �nancingthis organized effort and how shall this bedone. It is in this context that climate�nance became the major point of debate

Note: Major analysis has been conducted by UNDP consultant, Research Fellow, Head Policy Solutions Lab, Sustainable DevelopmentDr. Sajid Amin Javed,Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad

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in policy realms with special focus on thesupply of �nance. Developed countries,being the major contributor of GHG, wereheld responsible for accumulating andpooling cl imate �nance while thebene�ciaries of this fund are primarily thedeveloping countries. Despite their lowershare in GHG emissions, they share theh i g h e s t b u r d e n i n o r d e r t o g e tcompensated, in the form of negativeimpact of climate change on theirenviornments.

The diversi�cation of causes, scale andnature of damages as a result of climatechange, as well as the centrality of effortsrequired against risks associated with thechanging climate, brought into actiondiverse organizations and entities. Theseincluded national, global and regionalorganizations working on the issue ofclimate change, think-tanks and researchorganizations as well as the private sector.

Needless to say, that despite all efforts, therun is going out of hands. The frequency,scale and range of damages are allincreasing. Those who are at the bottomare being pushed further deep. Consensusemerging in meetings sees no translationon ground. World Bank recently publisheda report on climate change and itsimposing risk to already vulnerablesections: various estimates concluded thatdue to the growing climate changeburden, the modest gains in povertyreduction could be lost and possibly onebillion people will fall into povertybecause of extreme weather events .�Climate experts and scientists are inagreement that effectual mitigation ofclimate changes hinges on switching torenewable energy by 2050 and theintroduction of technologies loweringGHG emissions. The divide between GHGcontribution, distribution of environmentfriendly technologies and supply ofclimate �nance continues to increase. Thedivide within developed countries on thepooling ratio of climate �nance is ofserious concern as it is affecting theoutcomes very badly through decreasedadaptation in developing countries. Also,t h e r e l u c t a n c e o n s h a r i n g g r e e ntechnologies is creating new GHGemitters. Developing countries are of theview that since they are not signi�cantcontributors towards GHG emissions,hence they should not be part of thepooling ratio for climate �nance. Inaddit ion , poor research capaci t y,distributed focus on the issue and lack ofpolitical will/commitment in developingcountries is adding to the pre-existinghurdles against climate change. The call isvery tough, but it is now or never.The call isfor both the developed and developingworld. The call is for policy realms and forcreating research arms at the local,

national and global level. The call is foreveryone.

Global Drivers of Climate Change andEnvironmental DegradationThe primary role in destabilizing theclimate is rendered to GHG emissions,largely emitted by industrialized countriessuch as United States, Canada, Russia andrecently China . The share of developing⁴countries in GHG emissions is marginal,but these countries are paying the highestprice for lagging behind in the race ofindustrialization.

An unceasing problem in reaching to anagreement on curtailing carbon emissionsis to curb them without compromising

growth rates in countries such as China,

India, Brazil and the Russian Federation.Similarly, the outsourcing of emissionsfrom industrialized nations to China andIndia (which is the reason behind theirs u d d e n i n c r e a s e i n e m i s s i o n scontribution) is another point of concern.Foreign investment �nds shores ofdeveloping countries in search of cheapraw materials and labour including little orno binding environmental protectionlaws. The use of coal and fossil fuels tomeet energy demands increased as thepurpose was to maximize corporatepro�ts, not social surplus. This processincreases the share of developingc o u n t r i e s i n G H G e m i s s i o n s a n dproblematizes mitigation efforts at theglobal level.

Source: Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change.Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/�gure-1-4.html

Figure 1: Distribution of regional per capita GHG emissions

Annex-I Parties include the industrializedcountries that were members of the OECD(Organization for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment) in 1992, plus countries witheconomies in transition (the EIT Parties), includingthe Russian Federation, the Baltic States, andseveral Central and Eastern European States. Thefull list is available athttp://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/annex_i/items/2774.phpNon-Annex I Parties are mostly developingcountries.The full list is available athttp://unfccc.int/parties_and_observers/parties/non_annex_i/items/2833.php

The countries in each of the regional groupingsinclude:� EIT Annex I: Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech

Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania,Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

� Europe Annex II & M&T: Austria, Belgium,Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein,Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal,Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom;Monaco and Turkey

� JANZ: Japan, Australia, New Zealand.� Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of

Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman,Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United ArabEmirates, Yemen

� Latin America & the Caribbean: Antigua &Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados,

Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba,Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras,Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,Saint Lucia, St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, St. Vincent-Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay,Venezuela

� Non-Annex I East Asia: Cambodia, China, Korea (DPR),Laos (PDR), Mongolia, Republic of Korea, Viet Nam.

� South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,Comoros, Cook Islands, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Kiribati,Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Micronesia,(Federated States of ), Myanmar, Nauru, Niue, Nepal,Pakistan, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Philippine, Samoa,Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu

� North America: Canada, United States of America.� Other non-Annex I: Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan,

Bosnia Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Malta, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia,Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Republic ofMacedonia

� Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso,Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central AfricanRepublic, Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo,Côte d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea,Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea,Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Libya,Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius,Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria,Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Seychelles,Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sudan, Swaziland, Togo,Tunisia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia,Zimbabwe

In the same way, developing countries alsocontribute in depleting the ecosystem butthrough different channels. Of thesechannels, the population factor is of crucialimportance. A higher population growthu n l e a s h e s d e m a n d s c a u s i n gdeforestation, land deserti�cation and anincreased use of fertilizers and pesticidesthat eventually disturb the naturalequilibrium of the ecosystem. The share ofn o n - a n n e x - 1 c o u n t r i e s i n w o r l dpopulation is 80.3 percent, while theirshare in emissions is 28 percent (Fig-1).And of more concern is the fact, that whilstthe South Asian region alone contributesone fourth of the population, its totalcontribution in emissions is just 13percent. But the burden is heaviest on theregion in terms of cl imate relateddamages.

Global Reasons of ConcernsDespite all efforts, both the severity of andconcerns for climate change are on therise. Contrary to initial estimates of theincrease in global temperature at about3.5°C till 2100, new evidence suggests arise of around 4°C, hence demanding morestrenuous and organized global effortsranging from production to social andpolitical spheres of economies/countries .⁵Other emergent hazards of climate changethat were not particularly studied earlierhave received special attention recently.Five Integrative Reasons of Concerns(FIRC) framework presents the concernscategorized into two sub-themes namely,a) Frequency of variation in environmentalvariables and, b) Vulnerabil ity andexposure of social and ecological system at

the global/national level.

When looked through this framework,some ecological and cultural systems arein acute danger of deformation or evenextinction i.e. arctic areas and coral reefs.Developing nations are more vulnerablecourtesy their structure of economy andsocioeconomic dynamics that are differentfrom developed ones. The centrality of theagriculture sector has increased theirvulnerability to climatic hazards. Reducedagricultural productivity because ofextreme weather events, could elevatefood insecurity, poverty and socio-politicalinstability to new levels. Furthermore,population in developing countries, onaverage, is growing by two percent perannum. This increasing populationrequires food, c lothing and othersubsistence needs in order to avoid anysocial con�icts leading to politicalvolatility. The increase in productivitythrough green revolution technologieshas touched the ceiling and in the wake ofscarce land available for cultivation, itbecomes important for these (developing)countries to look for Climate ResistantGreen R&D to maintain food security.Pleasantly, it has recently been realizedthat some sections of population (such aswomen, poor, minorities etc) and somegeographical regions are more susceptibleto damages caused by climate changebecause of their nature of exposure tohazards.

The world stands at a consensus thatdifferent manifestations of climate changeand its appended non-climatic factors are

increasing the social, institutional,�nancial and political vulnerabilities ofsociet ies, communit ies and socio -ecological systems. World Bank report(2015), “Shock Waves: Managing theImpacts of Climate Change on Poverty”,expresses grave concerns about thecumulative effect of climate change onagriculture production, food insecurity,incidence of disease and pover ty.Important to note, however, is its assertionthat net impacts of climate change wouldbe transmitted through socioeconomictrends like inequality, demography andgrowth.

Recent research also states the possibilitythat if effective mitigation and adaptationstrategies to combat climate change donot come up to the task, rate of povertywould increase manifold. Increasedtemperatures and reduced availability ofwater for irrigation directly, but negativelyaffects the availability of food throughreducing productivity. Increased foodprices mean large food bills for poorhouseholds, which could absorb up to 60percent of their income, rendering themextremely vulnerable to falling below thepoverty line in case of any minor or majorsubsequent shock. In 2008, 100 millionpeople fell below the poverty line while in2010-11, an additional 44 million price hikein edible commodities with accentuatedclimate change, magni�ed the risk further.Put simply, repercussions are serious forthe most vulnerable part of the world:South Asia.

Figure 2: Most Vulnerable Regions to Climate Change

Source: German watch, Munich ReNatCatService. Available at https://germanwatch.org/en/download/13503.pdf

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Note: According to the , Pakistan ranks at no. 8 in terms of climate vulnerability.Global Climate Risk Index 2016

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Owing to its dependence on water foragricultural purposes in order to ensurefood security, South Asia remains mostvulnerable to climate change impacts (Fig-2). It is also one of the most populous andpoverty ridden regions in the worldbearing different social cleavages,geopolitical tensions and low per capitaincome.The rate of urbanization is also oneof the highest which again lends supportto the aggravation of environmentproblems. According to Maple Croft'sClimate Change Index 2015, South Asiaremains at the top in terms of climatevulnerability . A prime reliance on⁶agriculture for livelihood, lower humancapital productivity, higher dependencyr a t i o , a l r e a d y c r i p p l i n g p h y s i c a linfrastructure and higher incidence ofpoverty, render Pakistan one of the mostvulnerable countries to climate change.

Poor adaptive capacity adds further fuel tothe �re.

Climate Challenge and Progress on theMitigation and Adaptation Agenda:A Brief ChronologyGiven the nature, drivers, scale and rangeof the threat, the verdict is simple; thedeveloped world has to take the lead onmitigation whereas the developing worldrequires strong adaptation measures. Thebiggest problem regarding climatechange management is the hierarchy ofthe world system divided into nationstates. Different sets of priorities, agendas,n e e d s , l e ve l o f d e ve l o p m e n t a n drealization about subjective vulnerabilityto climate change problematize thedirection and intensity of global efforts.

Hurdles in combating climate change atthe global level:

� Developing mitigation and adaptionstrategies that would not hurteconomic growth.

� Generation of requisite climate�nance for the development ofclimate friendly R&D.

� Developing a consensus amongdifferent parties regarding theirrespective levels of emissions, localdemands and vulnerabilities.

� Developing a climate changemechanism that would ensure andenforce effective implementation ofinternational covenants at bothnational and global levels.

Tracing 50 years of Climate Change

1972

1979

1985

1987

1992

1994

1995

1997

2005

2011

2012

2015

The Stockholmconference “consideredthe need for a commonoutlook and forcommon principles toinspire and guide thepeople of the world inthe preservation andenhancement of thehuman environment.”

The �rst WorldClimate Conference(WCC) took place inGeneva.

The Vienna Conventionfor the Protection ofthe Ozone Layer wasadopted in 1985 andentered into force on22 Sep 1988. In 2009,the Vienna Conventionbecame the �rstConvention of any kindto achieve universalrati�cation.

Following the ViennaConvention for theProtection of the OzoneLayer, the MontrealProtocol on Substancesthat Deplete the OzoneLayer was designed toreduce the productionand consumption ofozone depletingsubstances in order topreserve the layer. Theoriginal MontrealProtocol was agreed on16th September 1987and entered into forceon 1st January, 1989.

During the 1st Earth Summitwhich took place in Rio deJaneiro, the United NationsConference on Environmentand Development (UNCED),several frameworkdocuments were issuedincluding the Rio Declarationon Environment andDevelopment and importantlegally binding agreementswere opened for signature.These included theConvention on BiologicalDiversity, the United NationsFramework Convention onClimate Change and theUnited Nations Convention toCombat Deserti�cation.

The COP1, the �rstConference of parties ofthe UNFCCC, took placein Berlin aiming toimplement the UNFCCCand to set up itsgovernance.

Entry into force of theKyoto Protocol tookplace in Montreal.

The Doha COP18reached an agreementto extend the life of theKyoto Protocol, whichhad to expire at theend of 2012, until 2020,and that a successor tothe Protocol was set tobe developed by 2015and implemented by2020.

UNFCCC entered intoforce on 21 March1994 and took effect: itbound member statesto act in the interestsof human safety evenin the face of scienti�cuncertainty.

The COP3 in Kyoto, Japan,adopted the KyotoProtocol on 11 December1997. Due to a complexrati�cation process, itentered into force on 16February 2005. In short,the Kyoto Protocol is what“operationalizes” theConvention. It commitsindustrialized countries tostabilize greenhouse gasemissions based on theprinciples of theConvention. TheConvention itself onlyencourages countries todo so.

COP17 took place inDurban (South Africa),the main outcomewas to adopt auniversal legalagreement on climatechange as soon aspossible, and no laterthan 2015.

Dubai hosted the 27thMeeting of the Parties tothe Montreal Protocol, themain goal of which was tolink Montreal Protocol withKyoto Protocol consideringHFC (hydro�uorocarbon)substitute to HCFC(Hydrochloro�uorocarbon).

France hosted the COP21 inan effort to achieve a newinternational agreement onclimate change.

Source: A history of Climate Change conferences and agreements.Available at http://www.unep.org/climatechange/ClimateChangeConferences/tabid/55125/Default.aspx

Climate Change and EnvironmentalDegradation in PakistanOwing to its continuous exposure toextreme weather events for the last fewyears, Pakistan now ranks at 6th position(at high risk) in terms of its vulnerability toc l i m a t e c h a n g e . Pa k i s t a n h a s a nabundance of natural resources with aneconomy predominantly dependent onagriculture, which constitutes for 21percent of GDP, accounts for half of theemployed labour and for the largest shareo f fo re i g n e a r n i n g s . T h e e x t re m edependence of agriculture on climate is astylized fact and associated events such as�oods, delayed and erratic rains, extrememaximum and minimum temperaturesand heat and cool waves hurt the economysternly through deceased agriculture andlivestock produce keeping it con�nedbetween a middle-to-low economicgrowth rate.

B e s i d e s c l i m a t e c h a n g e , o v e r a l lenvironmental degradation has causesemanating from changing demographicsand the social structure of the country. Theincreasing hunger, food insecurity anddegradation of arable land, are theoutcomes of urbanization, populationgrowth and environment unfriendlyindustrialization. These impendinghazards made Pakistan vulnerable to a risein global temperatures within a mediumspan of time.

Increasing temperature interrupts theregular average �ow of water in the Indusled irrigation system in Pakistan, whichcould have serious implications for foodsecurity in particular, and economicdevelopment and growth in general.According to meteorological experts,m o n s o o n w e a t h e r p a t t e r n s h a v eundergone gradual transformations overthe past few years, with decreasing rainfrequencies but increasing intensities. As aresult, crop harvests are affected. Expertsargue that this pattern will sustain itself fora few years and then become very acute.Tomeet this challenge, there is a need toincrease the water storage capacity, whichis currently on the decline due to silting.The coming future holds a precarioussituation for Pakistan as far as per-capitawater availability is concerned. Waterconser vation and storage requiresmeeting the challenges of climate changeand must be the single most importantgoal for Pakistan presently.

Likewise, the livestock sector in Pakistanprovides a 65 percent value addition to theagriculture sector through its supply ofmilk, meat and leather. Pakistan is thefourth largest milk producer, secondlargest buffalo meat producer andeleventh largest chicken (broiler) producer

in the world. It is a potential sector thatcould create employment, enhance foodsecurity and export earnings. Changes inclimate directly impact upon livestockproduction mechanisms and increaseproduction costs. Availability of fodder iscritically important for milking animalsand changes in rain cycles, with anincreased var iat ion in the rate ofprecipitation, negatively affect foddercrops. Hence, these factors limit thepotential of livestock growth, an area thatneeds further exploration in Pakistan.

The impact of climate change on theproduction and consumption of energy(electricity) is also of vital concern inPakistan. British petroleum's recentforecast for energy consumption hasshown a tremendous global increase of 40percent by 2020. Most of this increase is byvirtue of emerging Asian economies. Amidfossil fuels produced energy, this increasein energy demand is at odds withenvironmental concerns proposed by theFifth Assessment Report of IPCC . Climate⁷change, the report forcefully argued, alsoderived changes in energy demand. InPakistan, altering patterns of energydemand are easily discernable with theincrease in the demand of cooling andheating devices. Increased intensity ofheat waves creates a human crisis that isdealt only through a provision of cheapenergy sources. Also, coal based powerplants in Pakistan lead to an increase inGHG emissions considerably, henceadding fuel to the �re.

Underlying Factors of Exposure toClimate Change Risks in PakistanBeing an agricultural driven economy, thed e p e n d e n c e o f P a k i s t a n o n t h eenvironment becomes extremely crucialfor an in-time availability of primary inputs,especially water. Importance increasesmultifold for the rain-fed regions of thecountry. River Indus and its tributaries arethe primary sources of water. An upsurgein temperatures causes an intense meltingof glaciers. This results in an increased �owof water in rivers (�oods) coupled with areduced storage capacity of waterreservoirs because of silting.This increased�ow of water in the short run will bring areduced �ow in the long run, therebyputting the whole human system ofPakistan at stake.

According to the Global Food PolicyReport by the International Food PolicyResearch Institute (IFPRI) , every 4th⁸(exactly equal to Ethiopia) Pakistani faceshunger, whilst per-capita availability ofwater is pushing it towards becoming awater scarce country. Urbanization,deforestation, over pumping of water fordomestic and agriculture use, land

deserti�cation and loss of bio-diversity areall negative outcomes of uncontrolledpopulat ion growth and lop -s idedgovernance regimes. Pakistan, as beingpart of temperate climatic zones, carriedforest cover far less than global average.Growing population and the requirementfor t imber a long with homesteadsettlements is eating away this alreadymeagre resource, including the loss of �oraand fauna dependent on these forestsystems.

Land deserti�cation is another issue thatdemands careful attention of policymakers and academia. 68 million hectareso f l a n d l y i n g i n r a i n - fe d a r e a s i scontinuously and swiftly losing landproductivity because of changing patternsof rainfall. The meteorological data in thelast decade represents a discernable trendof infrequent rainfall in Pakistan that hasexposed the population in such areas toclimate related risks. Another majorsource of land deserti�cation is wind,which is wearing away the top fertile coverof soil, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwaand Balochistan. The shrinking of forestcover (about 9000 hectares taken awayannually) leaves the soil open andvulnerable to the effect of strong winds inhilly areas.

Simultaneously in Sindh, about 20 millionhectares are affected by water logging andsalinity, an outcome of sea intrusion as adirect result of rising sea levels caused by amelting of ice. In 2015, rice cultivation wasbanned in a few districts of Sindh forconcerns of increasing salinity that spreadthrough an overuse of underground water.Underground water tables close to deltaareas are increasingly becoming unusablerapidly, which demands intervention ofthe state department in favour of farmersto halt and reverse this process. Climatechange and socioeconomic dynamics ofPakistan, coupled with traditional worldviews and institutional structures, isproving to be ver y host i le to thec o m p r e h e n s i o n , m i t i g a t i o n a n dadaptation of climate induced changes .⁹

Governance of Climate Change andEnvironment Protection in PakistanPakistan has remained historically proneto hydro-meteorological and geologicalrisks and hazards. Crop failures because ofdrought, torrential rains and �oods havekept impacting the already beleagueredeconomic foundation and managerialstate struc tures. Never theless, noattention was given to such issues assecurity was perceived only in jargons ofnational security and considered hazardswere political and social dissent.

06

07

It is pertinent to note, that Pakistan haspreviously dealt with disaster in anarbitrary and response oriented manner.The sole objective of the �rst environmentrelated legal instrument, Calamity Act1958, was to guide central bureaucracy forstreamlining any relief efforts guided bythe Emergency Relief Cell (ERC) in theCabinet Secretariat.

Environment literacy has remained in ebb,at global levels too, and concernsregarding sustainability were never on theagenda of post-colonial governments andt h e i r f o r e i g n e c o n o m i c a d v i s e r s .Agriculture was considered as thefoundation that could help in movingtowards an industrialized socioeconomicf o r m a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , i n c r e a s i n gproductivity, capital accumulation, foreign

reserve ratios and maintaining balance ofpayment, remained at the fore front ofgovernments, donors and multi-laterallenders. The governance regimes, whetherauthoritarian or democratic, followingimpor t substitution strategies andprotectionist ideology or free marketstrategies and neo liberal ideology,remained almost the same and treatmentof environment received little attention.

Convention onBiologicalDiversity

1994 To preservebiodiversity andecosystem andequitable sharing ofthe bene�ts fromgenetic resources.

38.6 million USDworth of projectsimplemented atvarious stages.

� Developed Biodiversity Action Plan.� Established Biodiversity Directorate in Ministry of Environment

(now Ministry of Climate Change).� Establishment of Protected Area System (National Park, Wild life

Sanctuaries, Game reserves).� The conservation of biodiversity in the mountain areas supported

by community based organizations in conservancies, through adiverse range of interventions.

� Protection and management of 'chilghoza' (a type of dry fruit)forests in Balochistan.

NameYear ofRati�c-

ation

Key ObjectiveFunding

OpportunitiesImplementation Status

Environmental Conventions rati�ed by Pakistan

CartagenaProtocol onBio-safety (CPB)

2009 Addresses safe transfer,handling and use ofLiving Modi�edOrganisms (LMOs) thatmay have an adverseeffect on biodiversitywith a speci�c focus ontrans-boundarymovements.

Funding availablethrough GEF andbilateral projects.

� The implementation mechanism for the regulation of activitiesrelated to GMOs and their projects developed.

� Pakistan Bio-safety Rules 2005 developed.� National Bio-Safety Guidelines 2005 developed.� National Biosafety Centre established in Pakistan Environmental

Protection Agency (Pak-EPA), Ministry of Environment (defunct) inApril 2006 to meet the obligations of CPB. The centre hasprocessed more than 200 cases of GMOs and their products relatedto Laboratory Genetic Manipulation Work, Field Trials for Researchand Development (R&D), Import and Export andCommercialization (Sale and Purchase). The Centre has beenregulating the R&D and commercialization of Genetically Modi�edCotton, Corn and other crops (Sugarcane, Chili, Tobacco, andWheat etc).

Convention onInternationalTrade inEndangeredSpecies of WildFauna and Flora(CITES)

1976 To controlinternational trade inendangered species ofwild animals andplants so that theirsurvival is notthreatened.

Possibility offunding of projectsthrough GEF Fund,UNEP and CITESConventionSecretariat.

� The import and export of listed species is regularized by theNational Council for Conservation of Wildlife (NCCW) through asystem of permits/NOCs.

� Developed Pakistan Trade Council of Fauna and Flora Act 2010.� NCCW acts as CITES management and scienti�c authority.� Pakistan's trade policy covers all provisions of CITES trade

obligations.� CITES bill 2010 to implement CITES in Pakistan was passed by the

National Assembly post the 18th Amendment.

Convention onWetlands ofInternationalImportance (orthe RamsarConvention onWetlands)

1976 To stem the loss ofwetlands and toensure theirconservation and wiseuse.

Funding of 12million USDongoing throughPakistan WetlandProgram-part ofthese funds includethe UNDP/GEF fundwhich has beenconcluded already.

� 19 sites have been declared as Ramsar sites (Coverage: 1,343,627hectares).

� Developed National Wetlands Policy (under approval process) witha new water policy being developed.

� Wetland Action Plan and National Rangeland Policy 2010, draftdeveloped.

� Awareness raising and capacity building of key stakeholders anddevelopment of management plans for wetlands through PakistanWetlands Project.

Convention ontheConservation ofMigratorySpecies of WildAnimals (CMS)

1987 It aims to conserveterrestrial, marine andavian migratoryspecies over the wholeof their migratoryrange.

Possibility offunding projectsthrough GEF TrustFund, UNEP andCMS ConventionSecretariat.

� All migratory species under the convention (endangered) areprotected under Provincial Wildlife Acts.

� Developed Pakistan trade control of Fauna and Flora Act 2010.� Pakistan is signatory to Convention MOU's on Siberian Crane, Birds

of Prey and Marine Turtles.� Mandatory reports are regularly being sent to CMS Secretariat

about the measures that are being taken to implement theprovisions of this Convention.

Biodiversity-related Conventions


ation



United NationsFrameworkConvention onClimate Change(UNFCCC)

1994 Efforts for globalstabilization ofgreenhouse gasconcentrations in theatmosphere, to ensurethat food, water,energy security andeconomicdevelopment are notthreatened.

Green Climate Fundto provide fundingof 100 billion USDper year till 2020,additionalpossibility offunding throughGEF and bilateralprojects.

� Developed comprehensive inventory of greenhouse gasesemission sources and sinks.

� Submitted initial national communication (GHG emission report) toUNFCC.

� Established Global Change Impact Studies Center.� Second National Communication under process.� National Climate Change Policy developed and approved in 2012.� National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) for Industrial

Gaseous Emission 2000, developed.� NEQS for Motor Vehicle Exhaust and Noise (Amended) 2010,

developed.� INDC developed for Pakistan, yet to be �nalized.

Kyoto Protocolto UNFCCC

2005 Binds developedcountries to ful�ll theirassigned targets and tovoluntarily contribute toachieve an averagereduction of 5.2 percentof GHG emissions from1990 levels by 2012,under the 1stcommitment period,and agree in the targetsfor further reduction ofGHG emissions underthe 2nd commitmentperiod beyond 2012.

� Under the CleanDevelopmentMechanism Cell(CDM), there is anexpected 770.67million USDinvestment from 30approved projects� From theAdaptation Fund, sofar 216.15 millionUSD are expected,besides the fourmillion USD alreadyapproved.

� Developed National Operational Strategy for Clean DevelopmentMechanism.

� Established a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Cell forapproving and facilitation of CDM projects.

� Established a task force on climate change.� Pakistan Energy Conservation Bill 2010, developed and approved.

ViennaConvention forthe Protectionof the OzoneLayerAnd1987 MontrealProtocol onSubstances thatdeplete theOzone Layer

1992 The production andconsumption ofcompounds to deletethe ozone in thestratosphere are to bephased out as thesecompounds couldsigni�cally deplete thestratospheric ozonelayer that shields theplanet from damagingUltraviolet-B radiation.

� Funding isthrough theMultilateral Fund ofthe MontrealProtocol.� 20 million USDhave been receivedso far in differentprojects; 30 millionUSD projects inpipeline.

� First generation of ozone depleting substances have beencompletely phased out (Chloro-�uorocarbons, carbon-tetrachloride) as of 1st January 2010 and there is a complete banon their import.

� Ban imposed on import of Methyl Chloroform.� Hydro-Chloro�uorocarbon (2nd generation of ozone depleting

substances) Phase-out Management Plan (HPMP) to be completedby 2030.

UnitedNationsConvention toCombatDeserti�cation(UNCCD)

1997 To combatdeserti�cation andmitigate the effects ofdrought in countriesexperiencing seriousdrought and/ordeserti�cationthrough effectiveaction supported byinternationalcooperation.

Worth of 6.357million USDprojects undervarious stages.

� National Action Plan (NAP) to combat deserti�cation prepared.� Four biannual National Implementation reports submitted to

Convention Secretariat.� A comprehensive sustainable Land Management Project launched.� Policy documents such as Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) have

integrated NAP's programme areas of sustainable use of naturalresources as a means towards poverty alleviation.

Atmosphere / Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Land Convention / Environmental Cooperation Conventions

RotterdamConvention onPrior InformedConsent (PIC)for certainHazardousChemicals andPesticides inInternationalTrade

2005 Promote sharedresponsibility andcooperation amongparties in internationaltrade of hazardouschemicals through aglobal informationexchange mechanism.

Possibility offunding of projectsthrough GEF TrustFund, UNEP andRotterdamConventionSecretariat, as wellas bilateral projects.

� All pesticides and chemicals under Rotterdam Convention, subjectto Prior Informed Consent (PIC), are either banned, deregistered orrestricted in Pakistan.

� No import/export possible without explicit import/exportresponse from Designated National Authorities of two countries.

� National Advisory Committees established for advice on pesticidesand chemicals.

� National system for issuance of NOC for import/export of restrictedchemicals in place.

Chemicals and Hazardous Wastes Conventions

08


ation



BaselConvention onthe Control ofTrans-boundaryMovements ofHazardousWastes and theirDisposal

1994 To minimizegeneration and trans-boundary movementof hazardous waste.The convention alsoaims at preventingillegal trafficking ofhazardous wastes.

Possibility offunding of projectsthrough GEF TrustFund, UNEP andBasel ConventionSecretariat, as wellas bilateral projects.

Regional Seas Conventions and related Agreements

StockholmConvention onPersistentOrganicpollutants(POPs)

2008 To protect humanhealth and theenvironment fromharmful impacts ofPersistent OrganicPollutants (POPs).

Possibility offunding of projectsthrough GEF, UNEPand StockholmConventionSecretariat, as wellas bilateral projects.

� All the POPs pesticides are either banned or deregistered inPakistan.

� National Implementation Plan (NIP) prepared and submitted toStockholm Convention Secretariat.

� NEQS for Ambient Air 2010, developed.

United NationsConvention onthe Law of theSea (UNCLOS)

1997 Peaceful use of theseas and oceans,equitable and efficientutilization of itsresources,conservation of itsliving resource, andpreservation of themarine environment.

Possibility offunding fortechnical assistanceand training.

� Development of National Institute of Oceanography.� Extension of continental shelf from 200 nautical miles to 350

nautical miles.� Maritime boundary lines with Iran and Oman were each

determined and signed.

ConventionConcerning theProtection ofthe WorldCultural andNatural Heritage

1976 To identify potentialsites, natural orcultural, which can beconsidered forinscription on theWorld Heritage Listand to ensure theirprotection andpreservation.

Funding throughUNESCO.

� Six sites have been identi�ed as cultural heritage sites, with 18properties submitted on the Tentative List which is an inventory ofthose properties intended to be considered for nomination.

� UNESCO works on the restoration and preservation of all theidenti�ed heritage sites.

Source: Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan

Outlook for Climate Finance in PakistanThe center of gravity is climate �nance. Fordeveloping countries, this poses adilemma: the scale and frequency ofenvi ronmental hazards demand acontinuous supply of �nancial resources insubstantial amounts that developingcountries cannot afford given the tradeoffbetween climate change and other issuesof immediate concerns . To facilitate the�⁰process, UNFCCC has developed aninternational architecture of climate�nance (Fig-3).

This architecture is very similar to otherbusiness and economic developmentm o d e l s e n d o r s i n g p u b l i c - p r i v a t epartnerships. Financial markets in Pakistanare not much developed and due to aninformalization in the economy, theirspread is limited. Thus, the role of the statein steering �nance towards this cause,w h i c h , a s a r g u e d a b o v e , h a s n oconstituency of its own, becomes criticallyimportant.

� Certi�cation of Environmental Laboratories Regulations, 2000developed.

� Restrictions imposed on export/transit and import for �nal disposal andrecovery under the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act 1997.

� Hazardous Substance Rules drafted in 1997, updated in 2007 and 2009,but have not been adopted as yet.

� Guidelines for Hospital Waste Management (1998) prepared by theEnvironment Health Unit of the Ministry of Health.

09

Figure 3: Global Climate Finance Architect

Source: Inter Governmental Panel on Climate

Governmentbudgets

Capitalmarkets

Developmentcooperation

agencies

BilateralFinance

Institions

MultilateralFinance

InstitutionsUNFCCC

Privatesector

Domesticbudgets

OfficialDevelopment

Assistance

“New andAdditional”

climate �nance

Carbonmarkets

CDM Levyfunding theAdaptionfund

ForeignDirectInvestment

Industrializedcountriesemissionreductionobligations

Industrializedcountriescommitmentsto “new andadditional”�nance forclimatechange

Industrializedcountries ODAcommitments

Total �nance available for climate change mitigation and adaption initiatives

It is a revealing fact that the situation ofclimate �nance is very bleak in Pakistan. Inthe �scal year 2015-16, only 936 millionPKR were allocated for environmentprotection, in which the share for climatechange related issues was only 25 million.It was slashed by a staggering 73 percentfrom last year and does not seemjusti�able in the increasing incidence ofextreme weather events. Similarly Punjab,Sindh and Balochistan allocated 102, 101and 210 million PKR respectively for theirenvironment protection agencies anddepartments. In such a dismal �nancialsituation, the only option left is toaccumulate resources through climaterelated international funds. Unfortunately,Pakistan did not do well in this ventureeither, as approaching and accessingclimate �nance requires good diplomacy,comprehensive planning and up-to-dateknowledge in order to meet the eligibilitycriteria set by the Standing Committee onFinance. Moreover, the external climate�nance availability is also limited, owing tothe unwillingness of Annex-II (developed)countries to provide public �nance andstress on the role of private �nance to meetthe challenge of climate . Hence, Pakistan��has remained ineffective (to date) incashing on both external and internalopportunities.

In order to combat climate changedemands, Pakistan requires 7-14 billionUSD while only a fraction of it, 500 millionUSD, �ows into Pakistan. Of most urgencyis the need for Pakistan to develop a �rmstrategy to tap forthcoming �nancialopportunities rati�ed by the COP21 Parissession in December last year. For thispurpose, different options are availableincluding developing a National Climate

Fund (NCF) that could coordinate withinternational donors and streamline fundsto required areas. Unfortunately, Pakistanfailed to submit the Intended NationallyDetermined Contribution (INDC) goalstimely. Also the INDCs were submittedwithout any measurable target to beachieved, which may impact upon futureclimate �nance �ows towards the countryfurther. An example to learn from isBangladesh's climate �nance architecture:The country took pioneering steps in 2008to initiate national climate funds whichhave led to the development of two TrustFunds (the BCCTF and the BangladeshClimate Change Resilience Fund/BCCRF).Climate �nance in Pakistan is one of thetwo biggest problems impacting climatechange mitigation and adaptation efforts.The implications for not arranging asufficient amount of climate �nance wouldbe apocalyptic. The ensuing human andecological crises have the potential ofthreatening the very existence of the state.

ConclusionsTo meet the challenges of climate change,a multi-pronged strategy is required.Climate associated risks must become ofhigh priority and for this polit icalwill/commitment is the most importantingredient. Politicizing climate change hasreaped dividends in developed countrieswhile examples of environment relatedactivism have also gained reputablepresence in several countries, for exampleIndia . Such a political constituency is��missing in Pakistan. The following areasrequire attention:

GHG Emissions: Being a low pro�leemitter of GHGs, mitigation might be of alower returns policy option at the initial

stage for Pakistan. Nevertheless, aconcerted effort is required to graduallyshift towards environment friendly 'GreenTechnology' (and other alternate energysources with a lower emission rate) with alow rate of carbon emissions. For thispurpose, it is critically important that asde�ned in COP21, the Annex-I countriesunanimously accept emission ceilings andstart materializing their pledges forclimate �nance, as the need of time isurgency.

Industrial Waste: Developing adaptationmechanisms targeting the managementof industrial waste, are one of the few areasthat require high priority. Appropriatepolicy for land use in Pakistan and itsrigorous implementation is also requiredto protect fertile land from several abuses,such as building housing societies, with ar e v i e w o f p r e v i o u s c o n s t r u c t i o nm e c h a n i s m s , e n s u r i n g e ff e c t i v eimplementation of zoning laws andenvironment friendly architecture. Microlevel resistance against brick kilns,discharging waste materials into freshwater reservoirs and other health relatedhazards require advocacy. This can only bem a d e p o s s i b l e b y m a k i n g t h eenvironment protection's legal architectmore responsive to the changing needs ofcommunities.

Agricultural and Food Security:

Adaptations to changing weather patternsare of utmost importance for keeping foodsecurity and poverty in control. The targetpopulation, in this regard, is farmers and inPakistan, about 80 percent farmers ownland 12 acres or below, hence limiting theircapacity for effectual adaptation. Then,there are serious issues related to

References:

1. These factors jointly shape the adaptive capacity of households to �ght changing climate effectively.

2 . The contribution of developing countries, though very small as compared to their share in bearing the losses, comes primarily from rapidly vanishing forests along with over use of fertilizers and

pesticides.

3. Hallegatte, Stephane; Bangalore, Mook; Bonzanigo, Laura; Fay, Marianne; Kane,Tamaro; Narloch, Ulf; Rozenberg, Julie;Treguer, David;Vogt-Schilb, Adrien. 2016.“ShockWaves: Managing the Impacts

of Climate Change on Poverty”.Washington, DC:World Bank. ©World Bank. Available at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22787 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.

4. China has overtaken United States in 2006 as the largest emitter.These countries are included in Annex-1 of United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change.

5. IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core WritingTeam,

R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp. Available at http://epic.awi.de/37530/1/IPCC_AR5_SYR_Final.pdf

6. Maple Croft's Climate Change Index 2015. Available at http://maplecroft.com/portfolio/new-analysis/2014/10/29/climate-change-and-lack-food-security-multiply-risks-con�ict-and-civil-unrest-

32-countries-maplecroft/

7. Ibid

8. International Food Policy Research Institute. 2015. 2014–2015 Global Food Policy Report. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Available at

http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/129072

9. The sources of exposure to climate change are too large in number and diverse in effects to cover in this brief section. This note provides a brief on a couple of major factors in the context of the

agricultural sector purposefully, as those who are most vulnerable are deployed in one way or the other in the agricultural sector. The list can be extended to factors shaping the adaptive capacity of

the households which then shape the overall �ght of regions/countries to climate change.

10. It becomes more of a political economy of resource allocation by the government. It is also worth noting that policies in Pakistan are generally politically motivated putting politically less bene�cial

issues (in short run) on second priority.

11. The required amount of �nance for adaptation and mitigation measures amounts to one trillion USD per year .

12. Narmda Bachao Andholan has received very high pro�le reception in India; a movement of indigenous people who were not happy about construction of a dam.

10

11

a g r i c u l t u r a l c re d i t , i n fo r m a t i o n a linequalities, farm size and access to qualityfarm inputs that negatively in�uences theadaptive capacity of farmers further. Theneed of the hour is to a) Invest in R&D forclimate resistant seed varieties, b)Provision of �nance to small (less than 12acres in Punjab and Sindh, with a higherceiling in Balochistan) farmers who aremost vulnerable to the vagaries of bothclimate and market, and, c) Ensure theuninterrupted availability of water foragriculture, especially at critical stages ofcrop growth.

F i n a n c e : To m e e t a l l t h e s e e n d s ,availability of �nance is mandatory.Positive signals from Annex-1 countriesabout pledging climate �nance throughthe Global Environment Facility (GEF) andGreen Climate Fund (GCF) could helpPakistan in meeting the climate challenge.One of the internal options to meet�nancial needs can be to form a nationalconsortium, consisting of civil society,political parties and public and privateresearch institutions. This consortiummust design local �nance architecture forc l imate �nance, state i ts sec tora lexpenditures ratios and de�ne channels ofgeneration.

Climate Literacy: Awareness is a key issueif any of the challenges are to beaddressed. A focus on 'climate literacy' atboth the macro and micro levels, throught r a i n i n g s , a w a r e n e s s c a m p a i g n s ,education modules etc. is required. Thegap in research and implementation alsoneeds to be covered, with a de�ned focuson research and its translation into thepolicy narrative.

Additional sources consulted:

1. Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M., & Bonzanigo, L. (2015). ShockWaves: Managing the impacts of climate change on Poverty.Washington, DC.

2. Hussain, A., & Gillani, Z. (2014). Ful�lling environment related international commitments through implementation of multilateral environmental agreements (meas) in Pakistan. Retrieved from

http://www.sciencevision.org.pk/BackIssues/Vol18/02_Vol18_Ful�lling_Environment_AhmadHussain.pdf

3. Iqbal, M., Ahmad, M., Khan, A., Samad, G., & Gill, A. (2015). Review of Environmental Policy and Institutions (No. 4). Islamabad.

4. Javed S.A, Shabana Kishwar & Muhamad Iqbal (2015). From Perceptions to Adaptation to Climate Change: Farm Level Evidence from Pakistan. IDRC-PIDE working paper No. 7

5. Justice, C. (2014). Q and A Primer on Climate Finance. Manila. Retrieved from http://climatejustice.ph/main/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Climate-Finance-Primer.pdf

6. Khan, R. S. (2014). Devolving Environment; Centralizing Climate Change. In J. Institute (Ed.), Devolution, Provincial Autonomy and 18th Amendment (pp. 79–87). Lahore: Jinnah Institute. Pachauri, R.,

Allen, M., & Barros, V. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Retrieved from http://epic.awi.de/37530/

7. UNFCCC. (2015). Adoption of the Paris agreement. Paris. Retrieved from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

COP21-The Paris Agreement:A Summary of the main highlights

� To keep global temperatures "well below" 2.0 C (3.6 F) above pre-º º

industrial times and "endeavour to limit" them even more, to 1.5 C.º

� To limit the amount of greenhouse gases emitted by human activityto the same levels that trees, soil and oceans can absorb naturally,beginning at some point between 2050 and 2100.

� Common binding agreements for all parties, including theestablishment of a global emissions inventory, to be updated by allcountries and will include information on emissions and carbon sinks,adaptation, funding, technology transfer and capacity building.

� Developed countries must contribute funds (100 billion USD per yearcommitted from 2020), with the aim to increase fund mobilizationafter 2025.

� All countries must submit new NDCs every �ve years: Collectiveachievements will be reviewed in a global stock take every �ve years,commencing in 2023.

� Establishment of an adaptation committee to analyze and facilitateimplementation and compliance.

� Developed countries may offer assistance to climate-threateneddeveloping countries in several areas as outlined in Article 8 (4).

� Emission reductions will be tradeable between countries and will addto the respective country NDCs.

� Focus on improved technology development and transfer in order toimprove resilience to climate change.

� Improved efforts towards enhancing climate change education,training, public awareness, public participation and public access toinformation.

Source: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. “Adoption of the ParisAgreement”, Annex: Paris Agreement (2015).Available at https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

Opinion

Pakistan �nds itself confronting acruel irony when it comes to climatechange. Being one of the world's

lowest per capita emitters of greenhousegases, its own contribution to globalwarming-the leading catalyst of climatechange -is negligible. However, thecountry itself is widely regarded asamongst the world's most vulnerable tothe impact of climatic vagaries, especiallyon energy, food and water security.A c c o r d i n g t o t h e m o s t r e c e n tGermanwatch Global Climate Risk Index,Pakistan was amongst the ten countriesmost affected by climate change between1994 and 2013 . Of particular concern are�the inimical effects of variable weatherpatterns and extreme conditions such as�oods and droughts on Pak istan'sagricultural sector.

Pakistan's policymakers are not whollyoblivious to the gravity of the challengeposed by climate change. In 2012, thegovernment approved a National ClimateChange Policy (NCCP) with the goal of'mainstreaming' climate change in thosesectors of the economy most at risk ofbeing impacted by it and leading Pakistantowards 'climate resilient development .’�Launched formally in 2013, the NCCP laiddown a number of policy objectivesincluding the following: adequatelyaddressing climate change challenges;integrating climate change policy with

other relevant national policies; devisingpro-poor and gender-sensitive adaptationprocedures as well as cost-efficientmitigation strategies; ensuring water, foodand energy security; mitigating risksarising from the onset of extreme weatherconditions; strengthening relevantgovernmental decision-making andcoordinating mechanisms; harnessingdomestic and international opportunitiesto promote the cause of climate changeadaptation; incentivising public andprivate investment in the development ofadaptive techniques; enhancing theinstitutional capacity and know-how ofrelevant stakeholders; and promotingenvironmental conservation.

The NCCP proposed a series of measuresaimed at putting in place an effectiveinstitutional architecture at both federaland provincial levels to achieve the abovementioned policy objectives. Thesemeasures included the establishment ofClimate Change Cells within relevantfederal and provincial ministries and thesetting up of a National Climate ChangeCommission to coordinate domesticclimate change activities as well as tof a s h i o n a p p ro p r i a te re s p o n s e s tointernational developments. It was alsop ro p o s e d t h a t t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i vestructures of federal and provincialEnvironmental Protection Agencies (EPAs)be redesigned in order to integrate climate

c h a n g e c o n c e r n s i n t o I n i t i a lE n v i r o n m e n t a l A s s e s s m e n t ( E I A )processes, and that national and provincialimplementing entities be instituted tomanage adaptation and mitigationprojects at the federal and provincial levelsrespectively .�

T h e N C C P c a l l e d o n t h e f e d e r a lgovernment to develop an 'Action Plan' forimplementation of its policy directives andalso required provincial governments tocome up with their own implementationstrategies . To oversee progress in that⁴regard, the NCCP proposed the creation offederal and provincial Climate ChangePolicy Implementation Committees,which would meet on a biannual basis,with the provincial committees reportingo n t h e s t a t u s o f t h e N C C P ' si m p l e m e n t a t i o n t o t h e n a t i o n a lcommittee. In November 2013, the currentgovernment followed up the NCCP thathad been launched by its predecessor withthe publication of a Framework forImplementation of Climate Change Policy(FICCP) aimed at reinforcing and furtherstreamlining coordination at the federaland provincial levels in order to ensuregreater integration of climate changeconcerns into national planning anddevelopment. Under the FICCP, theimplementation of each proposedinitiative has been set according to speci�ctimeframes, with priority actions to becompleted within two years, short-termactions within �ve years, medium-termactions within 10 years and long-termactions within 20 years . Notwithstanding⁵t h e p r o v i s i o n o f s u c h e l a b o r a t emechanisms for implementation, theactual execution of the strategies outlinedin the NCCP and the FICCP has beeni n a d e q u a t e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h einstitutionalization of climate change atthe federal and provincial levels, anagenda item emphasi ed in both policyzdocuments, has yet to be meaningfullyaddressed. This failure stems primarilyfrom the inability of both federal andprovincial governments to adapt moreeffectively to the major overhaul ofgovernance structures brought about in2 0 1 0 b y t h e p a s s a g e o f t h e 1 8 t hAmendment to the Constitution ofPakistan, which devolved 47 legislative

The National Climate ChangePolicy Framework

12

South Asia Senior Analyst for theInternational Crisis Group (ICG),

PhD candidate in Political Science andInternational Relations

Aly Zaman

Associate ProfessorDirector, Centre for Governance and

Public ManagementLUMS

Ahsan Rana

1713

subjec ts, including environmentalpollution and ecology, from the federalparliament to the provincial legislatures.

In practice, however, the lines of authoritywhen it comes to the environment andclimate change remain blurred betweenthe federal Ministry of Climate Change(MCC) and its provincial counterparts.While the 18th Amendment has made theprovinces responsible for environmentallaw making and climate change servicedelivery, it has retained the authority of thefe d e r a l g ove r n m e n t to d i re c t t h eimplementation of relevant internationalobligations as well as set the direction ofnational policy on climate change . This⁶imprecise division of responsibilitiesbetween the centre and the provinces hasinhibited inst i tut ional c lar i t y andprevented the establishment of clear ande ff e c t i v e w o r k i n g a r r a n g e m e n t s .Moreover, federally devised policyinstruments like the NCCP have yet togenerate signi�cant buy-in from theprovinces.

The federal government itself has sentmixed signals about its long-termcommitment to dealing with the effects ofclimate change. The decision to set up theMCC in 2012 was a step in the rightdirection, placing Pakistan amongst a verysmall group of countries around the worldw i t h a f u l l - � e d g e m i n i s t e r i a lestablishment to tackle climate change.MCC was subsequently downgraded in2013 to the status of a division under thefederal cabinet and had its budget slashedby more than 60 percent . In 2014,⁷spending on the environment markedlydeclined once again from 58 millionPKR(around USD 580,000) the previous year, tojust 25 million (around USD 250,000) .PKR ⁸It was only in January 2015, that theclimate change division was againupgraded to a dedicated ministry butwithout any accompanying increases inbudgetary allocation or the provision ofnew projects.

Such �uctuations in the approach of thefederal government towards the MCC hasweakened the latter's functioning andrestricted it to the pursuit of a narrowlyde�ned environment-centric approach toclimate change instead of a more holisticone that seeks to fully incorporate climatechange into core budgetary and planningprocedures across a range of relevantsectors. Effective policy delivery on climatec h a n g e i s c o n t i n g e n t u p o n t h eestablishment of �rm linkages betweenthe MCC as the lead federal agency dealingwith the environment and sectoralministries such as agriculture, energy,�nance, planning and development,transport, urban planning and water.

Those linkages have yet to be fullyi n s t i t u t i o n a l i s e d . M o r e o v e r, t h eperformance of the MCC in raisingsufficient awareness about the impact ofclimate change amongst line ministriesremains patchy. As a result, one of the keyobjectives of the NCCP-the mainstreamingof climate change into core budgetary andplanning procedures across differentsectors-remains largely unful�lled.

While the MCC is the primary nationalcoordinating agency with respect toimplementation of the NCCP, the actualdelivery of outcomes enshrined in theNCCP rests with the provinces, to whichthe 18th Amendment has devolvedrelevant sectors such as environment andforestry. Yet, devolution has not beencomplemented with a correspondingincrease in the capacity of the provinces toe ff e c t i v e l y s h o u l d e r t h e n e wresponsibilities allocated to them. A lack ofinstitutional clarity about the part playedb y v a r i o u s g o ve r n m e n t a l t i e r s i nlegislation, regulation and enforcementhas prevented the framing of an effectiveprovincial response both to the challengesas well as the opportunities presented bythe devolution process.

The continuing confusion and lack ofcomprehension regarding institutionalfunctions, obligations and powers hasbeen a major obstacle to the consolidationof a long-term process directed at a fulleralignment of federal and provincialclimate change policies. A case in point isthe uncertainty surrounding jurisdictionalauthority over the commercial cultivationof genetically modi�ed organisms (GMOs),which are accused by their detractors ofc a r r y i n g a d ve r s e i m p l i c a t i o n s fo ragriculture as well as the environment,both subjects that lie within the legislativepurview of the provinces. In May 2014, theLahore High Cour t suspended theissuance of licences for the commercialcultivation of GMOs until the concernedlicensing authority–the National Bio SafetyCommittee (NBC)–had its legal statusc l a r i �e d i n t h e l i g h t o f t h e 1 8 t hAmendment . Although environmental⁹pollution and ecology was a devolvedsubject, the provinces had failed to put inplace a regulatory mechanism for GMOs,with the result that the NBC, a federalentity, ended up �lling the legal vacuumby vetting applications for commercialcultivation of GMOs.

Institutional structures dealing with theenvironment can be found at both thefederal and provincial level but thereappears to be an absence of protocols thatcan facilitate increased collaborationtowards the pursuit of a common climatechange agenda. All four provinces have

their own EPAs which also attend toadaptation and mitigation activities but allof which are organised under varyingadministrative arrangements that make itharder to coordinate federal and provincialclimate change responses. A ClimatePublic Expenditure and InstitutionalReview (CPEIR) conducted by the UNDPunder the federal government's auspicesand published in 2015, also identi�edMaythe continuing absence of any linkagebetween the Pakistan EnvironmentalProtection Act (PEPA) of 1997-a federallaw-and provincial EPAs. The CPEIRemphasised the pressing need for aneffec t ive coordinat ion mechanismbetween federal and provincial EPAs toensure effective implementation ofdomestic policy instruments as well asinternational treaty undertakings .�⁰

The delegation of cl imate changeresponsibility to the provinces has takenplace in a 'historical vacuum' in that therewas no provincial policy on the subjectp r i o r t o t h e p a s s a g e o f t h e 1 8 t hAmendment . Without �lling the void in��terms of policy-setting and deliverycapacity, devolution has placed on theprovinces the onerous task not only ofpolicy formulation and execution onclimate change but, also of determiningclimate change expenditure priorities andtargeting 'interventions with the mostcost-effective outcomes Since the 18th’ .��Amendment came into force, all fourprovinces have passed amended versionsof the PEPA-Balochistan and Punjab in2012 and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindhi n 2 0 1 4 - t h a t s e e k t o b r i n g t h eenvironmental legislation in line with theshift in environmental powers andresponsibilities from the federal to theprovincial level. The new environmentallaws in the provinces each provide for thecreation of a provincial environmentalprotec t ion counci l headed by therespective chief minister of the provinceand tasked with approving environmentalpolicies and provincial environmentalquality standards .��

Although such legislation is an essential�rst step towards identifying coreprovincial issues and subsequentlydirecting resources towards them, theprocedures for provincial policy deliveryare not clearly articulated and could varyconsiderably between provinces, therebyexacerbating the problem of weak policycoordination. This underscores the needfor establishing �rm linkages betweenprovincial climate change policy andfederal policy instruments like the NCCPand the FICCP. To that end, the role of inter-governmental bodies such as the Councilof Common Interests (CCI)-the primaryfo r u m fo r d i s p u te re s o l u t i o n a n d

1714

participatory federalism-will be critical.Historically a moribund entity, the CCI hasb e e n r e s u s c i t a t e d b y t h e 1 8 t hAmendment and can provide a keyplatform for climate change concerns tobe voiced and priorities to be determinedat the highest policy-making level. TheMinistry of Inter Provincial Coordination,which serves as the secretariat for the CCIand whose primary functions include'promoting uniformity of approach informulation of policy and implementationamong the provinces and the federalgovernment in all �elds of commonconcern,' can also play an important role inharmoni ing federal and provincialzclimate change policies .�⁴

Instead of simplifying the response to analready complex and multi-facetedsubject like climate change that cutsacross a range of sectoral boundaries, thedevolution process instigated by the 18thA m e n d m e n t h a s t h r o w n u p n e wchallenges of institutional developmentthat have proved difficult to overcome. Atthe same time, the post-devolutionorgani ational arrangements also presentzopportunities for meaningful progress onclimate change. Given the eventualattainment of greater institutional clarityby the provinces, they can then utili e theirzincreased discretionary resources to strikea gradual balance between budgetarycosts and local requirements. In the form ofthe NCCP, the provinces have a solidreference point for the framing of policygermane to their respective climatechange concerns. Federal and provincialgovernments must expeditiously developappropriate responses both to the,challenges as well as the opportunities,that have arisen in the wake of the 18thAmendment if Pakistan is to reduce its,v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o t h e p o t e n t i a l l ycatastrophic long-term effects of climatechange.

References:

S. Kreft, D. Eckstein, L. Junghans, C. Kerestan and U. Hagen, 'Global Climate Risk Index 2015,' November 2014, https://germanwatch.org/en/download/10333.pdf1.

National Climate Change Policy, Ministry of Climate Change, Government of Pakistan, September 2012, p. 1.2.

3. Ibid. pp. 30-31.

4. Ibid., pp. 46-47.

5. Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy, Climate Change Division, Government of Pakistan, November 2013, p. 9.

6. Under entry no. 32 of the Federal Legislative List Part I, international treaties, conventions and agreements fall within the exclusive legislative purview of the Parliament and, by extension, the federal

government. Entry 58 stipulates that matters relating to the federation as a whole (in this case the development of a national climate change policy) are to be dealt with by Parliament. Article 142 of

the Constitution gives Parliament the exclusive power to make laws with respect to any matter in the Federal List.

7. ZofeenT. Ebrahim, 'Pakistan's new climate change ministry merely 'cosmetic,' Dawn, 6 February 2015.

8. Jamil Shahid, 'Funding for environmental projects reduced to Rs. 25 million,' Dawn, 4 June 2014.

'Negating devolution: LHC issues stay on GMO licensing,'The ExpressTribune, 14 May 2014.9.

10. 'Pakistan: Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR),' United Nations Development Programme in Pakistan, April 2015, p. 37..

11. Ibid., 39.

12. Ibid., 40.

13. The new laws are the Balochistan Environmental Protection Act 2012; the Punjab Environmental Protection (Amendment) Act 2012; the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Environmental Protection Act 2014;

and the Sindh Environmental Protection Act 2014.

14. Rules of Business 1973 (as amended up to 29th October 2014), Inter Provincial Coordination Division, Government of Pakistan, www.ipc.gov.pk

Opinion

BackgroundPakistan, owing to its diverse topographic,demographic and geopolitical placement,is vulnerable to a variety of environmentalhazards. The country has experienced 23major �oods since 1947, in addition to anumber of sporadic �ash �ood incidentsthat have resulted in massive devastationst o p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y ,infrastructure, economic losses and mostimportantly, the loss of over 12,150 humanlives .�

In recent times, the unprecedented July2 0 0 1 u r b a n �o o d s o f I s l a m a b a d -Rawalpindi, followed by torrential rainfall,led to 74 casualties and loss of billions ofrupees worth of assets of Small & MediumEnterprises (SME). In addition, the 2010�oods alone in�icted a massive blow to thecountry's economy through an economicloss of 15.5 billion USD, equivalent to sevenpercent of the national GDP and 40percent of the annual federal budget forthe same year .�

Records show that the South Asian region,and Pakistan in particular, has been highlyprone to major seismic activities over thelast century during which (including theOctober 26, 2015 earthquake) over 12,890earthquake shocks ranging between 4 to8.1 on Richter Scale were experienced; 42shocks with an intensity of more than

seven were recorded .�

A very prominent progression in cyclonicactivity at the southern coastline ofPakistan has been observed since 2007.The coastal communities and industrieshave faced the risk of Cyclones Yemyin(2007), Phet (2010), Nelofer (2014) andAshobba (2015). Successive droughts inthe years of 1998-2002 and 2014-2015,have exposed Pakistan's vulnerability to aconsiderable extent .⁴

Less known extreme events (heat waves,hail storms, sand storms, dust storms,tornadoes, fog, landslides, Glacial LakeOutburst Floods (GLOFs) and wild �res) arebecoming increasingly vulnerable in thecontext of Pakistan. Just this year, the cityo f P e s h a w a r w i t n e s s e d s e v e r ed e v a s t a t i o n s o w i n g t o m i n icyclone/tornadoes, killing heat waves inKarachi and Sindh, GLOF events duringm o n s o o n i n C h i t r a l a n d o n g o i n gvulnerabilities and risks as a consequenceto the 2010 Attabad landslide.

In parallel, man-made disasters such asterrorism incidents, accidents at variousindustrial hubs, �re hazards in urbancentres and forests etc, have also addedfurther complications.

Climate ChangeCredible research results and assessmentsindicate a clear and visible shift in thesummer monsoon trend that has nowshifted from north-east to north-west by arange of 80-100 km with an additionalvulnerability to an approximate 25 districtsof Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Punjab .⁵The mean temperature rise since the 1950sover Pakistan, is twice as high as change inthe global mean temperature. Darkeningof glaciers owing to black carbondeposition, is resulting in a decrease inalbedo or re�exivity, and hence, anincrease in heat absorption and the rate oftheir melting. Snow maxima is shiftingfrom January towards February resultingin a shrinking of snow residency periods. Acomparison of the last 15 years betweenthe Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) of theBay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea indicatehigher SST values for the latter; this ablyshows the progressively increasing

frequency of tropical storms in the ArabianSea and the growing vulnerability of thecoastal areas.

Proactive Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)ApproachInstitutional response to the challenges ofdisasters and development has beenevolving in Pakistan since the 2005earthquake. Among the most notableachievements are the development of theN a t i o n a l D i s a s t e r M a n a g e m e n tFramework in 2007 as well as the NationalDisaster Management Plan and theNational DRR Policy in 2013. These threekey frameworks suggest the adoption oftop-down and bottom-up approaches inD i s a s te r R i s k M a n a g e m e n t ( D R M )involving key decision makers andc o m m u n i t y m e m b e r s i n p o l i c ydevelopment and community-based DRMapproach. Nonetheless, it should be notedthat until fairly recently, DRM in Pakistanhas heavily focused on emergencyresponse and recovery . There is an⁶ongoing, non-trivial gap of discourse andpractice in Pakistan; recent research�ndings and new insights from the HyogoFramework for Action (HFA) and the SendaiFramework for Disaster Risk Reduction(SFDRR) have limited in�uence on thep o l i c y m a k i n g p r o c e s s a n d i t simplementation for different reasons.

At the same time, the establishment of theNational Climate Change Policy in 2012provides a framework for addressingvarious issues mentioned above, thatPakistan may face in the future owing tochanging climate. The National ClimateChange Policy focuses on mitigation andadaptation efforts; the latter having morefocus on community preparedness. Thepromotion of the Community BasedDisaster Risk Management (CBDRM) andClimate Change Adaptation (CCA) arecentral to those national strategies in DRRand DRM. The government of Pakistan hasbeen actively seeking cooperation withthe international community for theirimplementation.

At the broader level, the challenge on DRRin Pakistan is the cooperation andcollaboration between different epistemiccommunities, international organizations

Disaster Risk Reduction in Pakistan:Current Status, Challenges and Ways Forward

15

MemberNational Disaster Management

Authority (NDMA)

Ahmed Kamal

17

and sectors to address CCA and DRR in amore integrated manner.

C u r r e n t I s s u e s i n D i s a s t e r R i s kManagement

Limited Capability – Meteorological

Early Warning System: Obsolete weatherforecasting radars-present capabilitystands at an accurate forecast of only up to24 to 48 hours in advance; critical shortageof automatic weather stations and rainfallgauging stat ions- only 65 percentcoverage of Pakistan by Weather Radars,80 percent area of Balochistan and 100percent NAs (Gilgit Baltistan) not covered;limited coverage of meteorologicalnetwork at district/tehsil level; limitedrainfall measuring stations (KP, GB,Balochistan, AJ&K); prediction of mediumto long range forecasting stands betweena minimum of seven to 15 days, lack inQuantitative Forecast of Extreme Events(2010 and 2014 �oods); accuracy inseasonal weather prediction-50 to 60percent; de�cient upper air weather datafor storm tracking; and no urban �oodforecasting system except for Islamabad-Rawalpindi.

Weak Trans Border Rain and Flood In�ow

Mechanism: No mechanism to obtain realtime in�ow/out �ow data sets for a moreprecise forecast for lower riparian areas.

Huge Quantum of Flood Protection

Measures Required: Strengthening of theexisting �ood protection network; �ooddiversion/dispersion works across hilltorrents; construction of mega dams;enhancement of �ood passing capacity ofbarrages and bridges; construction ofsmall dams in all provinces; model studiesfor major railway bridges; measures forGLOFs and land sliding in hilly areas;c o a s t a l � o o d p r o t e c t i o n w o r k s ;comprehensive studies for all existingbreaching sections; River Act; watershedmanagement policy for re-forestation;revision of Mangla & Tarbela Dam SOPs;capacity building of relevant stakeholdersand institutional reforms.

Building Codes exist but no Legislation

for Enforcement: Pakistan EngineeringCouncil Bye-laws noti�ed in August 1986;Seismic provisions 2007 incorporated inSeptember 2008 and Energy provisions2011 incorporated in March 2013. RevisedBuilding Codes is a necessity but yet to beframed.

National Fire Safety Codes do not exist:Fire Safety Codes of DevelopmentAuthorities, Municipalities, CantonmentBoards, Defence and other private housingauthorities are inadequate to meet the

challenges of the increasing number of �reincidents.

Duplication of Responsibilities amongst

O r g a n i z a t i o n s : I n l i n e w i t h t h eE a r t h q u a k e R e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n dRehabilitation Authority (ERRA) Act,e a r t h q u a k e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n a n dr e c o n s t r u c t i o n r e s t s w i t h E R R A .Simultaneously, the National DisasterManagement Act 2010 assigns NDMA theentire spectrum of disaster managementas its mandate and function, which alsoincludes rehabilitation and reconstruction.

Capacity Issues of NDMA, PDMAs and

DDMAs: Non-availability of disastermanagement specialists, non-availabilityo f p e r m a n e n t s t a ff ; f r e q u e n ttransfers/movements of human resources,lack of institutional memory; inadequatebudget/funding and no dedicated staff atDDMAs.

U n r e g u l a t e d I n t e r v e n t i o n s o f

Development Partners: Nonexistence ofa n i n s t i t u t i o n a l i z e d s y s t e m o fidenti�cation, need/demand, planning,monitoring; coordination and acceptanceof inter ventions, inter ventions arenoncompliant to the National DisasterManagement Plan and are sometimesundertaken in isolation without theknowledge/involvement/approval ofNDMA, PDMAs and DDMAs; duplication ofefforts and hence wastage of funds/timei.e. different organizations carrying outs i m i l a r i n t e r v e n t i o n s e i t h e rsimultaneously or at different times in thesame area/communit y/ inst i tut ion;interventions are supply driven and notneed based/demand driven; lack ofuniformity with respect to requisiteparameters such as mapping protocols,resource coding and documentationp ro ce d u re s ; n o s ys te m o f q u a l i t yassurance acceptance from the user i.e.DDMA, PDMA and NDMA; piecemealinterventions focusing only on a part of thecommunity and not leading it to the wholecommunity for a logical conclusion;misplaced priority vis-à-vis vulnerabilitymatrix/priority de�ned by user/NationalDisaster Management Plan; attendanti s s u e s o f N G O s w i t h r e s p e c t t otransparency, �nancial management,quality control and tangible output;absence of monitoring mechanism atNDMA, PDMA and DDMA level and directinteraction at lower tier without thek n o w l e d g e o f t h e h i g h e r t i e r o fgovernment.

Tangible SolutionsThe global climate change phenomenonpresents a real threat which will escalateunless preemptive measures and changes

are undertaken. Accordingly, there is animmediate need to implement theNational Climate Change Policy (NCCP)that can inform greater internationalcooperation: for example, presentingPakistan's view point of climate change atthe strategic climate change conferencesand securing funding from the GreenClimate Fund (GCF). In addition, the NCCPwill help to undertake short, medium andlong term measures for adapting tocl imate change: reforestat ion andenactment of forest and environmentallaws, effective awareness of climatechange risk, proactive approach to DRR,implementation of the NDMP and furtherinvestment in DRR, allocation of at leastt w o p e r c e n t o f P u b l i c S e c t o rDevelopment Programme (PSDP) from thenational and provincial budget to DRRinterventions, transferring donors' budgetline from reactive to proactive DRR,implementation of the National FloodProtection Plan, carrying out micro levelrisk assessment of the entire country,modernization of weather and �oodf o r e c a s t i n g s y s t e m , e n h a n c e dimplementation of building and �re safetycodes, promoting advocacy, awarenessa n d a n i n c r e a s e d r e s i l i e n c e o fcommunities and community-based DRRinterventions.

Climate change risk, as an additional threatto the existing risk of environmentalhazards, requires immediate and timelyimplementation of DRR measures inPakistan. There is a compelling need toenhance the overall capacity of NDMA,PDMAs and DDMAs, as well as cognateinstitutes such as Rescue 1122 and CivilDefense at a district level. Existing anomalya n d d i s c o n n e c t i n t h e D i s a s t e rManagement Act should be addressedforthwith to ensure smooth working in theentire spectrum of disaster management,both top-down and bottom-up. It is alsoimportant to set up a smart NationalDisaster Response Force by up-scalingRescue 1122, revamping Civil Defence andraising volunteers. Equally important is toenhance operational worthiness andupgradation of rescue and responseequipment, regular review and update ofContingency Plans at all levels, strengthenlocal government response mechanism atthe tier of districts, integration of theYouth, Boy Scouts and Girl Guides indisaster management, devise a NationalVolunteer Network, involve communitiesin DRM, regulate efforts of NGOs to �ll thegaps, as well as continuous and concerteddisaster awareness campaigns.

With a view to improve real time crossborder data dissemination in order toensure precise and effective �oodfo re c a s t i n g fo r t h e p ro t e c t i o n o f

16

1717

References:

1. 'Annual Flood Report 2014.' Ministry ofWater and Power, Government of Pakistan. Available at http://ffc.gov.pk/download/Annual%20Flood%20Report%202014.pdf

2. ‘Fiscal Risk Assessment Options for Consideration.’ A Study by World Bank and GFDRR, 2015. Available at http://www-

wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2015/04/17/000442464_20150417121557/Rendered/PDF/944740WP0P13260ter0Risk0Assessment.pdf

3. Pakistan Meteorological Department, 2015

4. "Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan." Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: An Asian perspective 5 (2010), 1976-215.Khan, Amir Nawaz, et al.

5. Pakistan Meteorological Department, 2015

6. Ibid

d ow n s t re a m r i p a r i a n a re a s , s t r i c tadherence to the implementation ofexisting treaties pertaining to upperriparian, is a pre-requisite, both in letterand in spirit, ensuring provision of in�owsinto reservoirs upstream, reservoir levels,existing live storage as well as reservoir�lling criteria under emergencies andnormal conditions.

Economic rati�cation of disasters is aserious issue to be tackled within theagenda of DRR. Their impact on GDP/PSDPwarrants serious consideration of theadoption of disaster risk insurance inPak istan. Equal ly impor tant to beconsidered is the involvement of theprivate sector in DRR and the adoption ofpro-poor disaster-resistant constructionguidelines and applications.

Flood protection wall being constructed in Kotky Shahi Khel, Lower Dir

© CPRU, UNDP Pakistan

Opinion

IntroductionIn Paris, the recent terrorist killings (on13th November, 2015) and the ClimateSummit (from 30th November to 12thDecember, 2015), one of horror the otherof hope, signify the two principal globalchallenges of our time: violent extremismand the environmental crisis. The formerthreatens the fabric of society while thelatter endangers the physical life supportsystems of the planet. It can be argued thateach of these phenomena is rooted,although in different ways, in the exclusionof humanness in the systems of power andforms of production and distribution thathave characterized capitalism over the lastthree centuries.

Within the capitalist mode of productionthere is a systematic tendency for anincrease in the volume and range ofcommodities . The structural imperative�for continuous expansion of production isassociated with the development of a'consumerist ' culture in which theindividual is driven by an insatiable desiret o i n c r e a s e t h e a c q u i s i t i o n o fcommodities. It is not surprising that for along time within the capitalist forms ofproduction and social life, nature was seenas an 'exploitable resource': The impact onthe ecosystem was not adequately takeni n t o a c c o u n t i n t h e p r o c e s s o ftechnological change and economicgrowth.

The evidence shows that the process ofeconomic growth within this frameworkhas involved an increase in economicinequality at the inter personal as well asinter country levels . This has resulted in�the exclusion of a large proportion of thepopulation in a globalized economy fromthe fruits of economic growth. Forexample, while the richest one percent ofthe world's population lives in luxury, thebottom 39 percent live in poverty de�nedin terms of an income of USD 2, per personp e r d ay. E co n o m i c d e p r i v a t i o n i saccompanied by political exclusion oflarge sections of society from the systemsof power and governance which shapetheir social, cultural and environmentalconditions.

In this article, I will �rst indicate that thelatest scienti�c evidence suggests that lifeon earth is threatened as a consequence ofhuman intervention since the industrialrevolution, into the ecosystem. Therefore,the countries of the world need toundertake an urgent reduction in carbonemissions to mitigate that threat. I willthen argue on the basis of social scienceand an ancient though vitally relevantknowledge tradition, that the currentenvironmental crisis is the result of aparticular inhuman relationship betweenhumans, commodit ies and nature.Therefore the crisis of the environment isnot merely a technological problem, but isessentially, a crisis of human civilization.

The Challenge of Reducing GreenhouseGas EmissionsSince the industrial revolution, the stresson the world's ecosystem has beenbuilding up and may now have reached acritical point. At each stage in the processof production, extraction of raw materialsfrom the earth, fabrication of these rawmaterials to produce products, theconsumption of products and the disposalof waste involves, in most cases, thegeneration of heat through fossil fuels.Consequently, greenhouse gases such ascarbon dioxide, methane and nitrousoxide, are emitted into the atmosphere.This has resulted in the phenomenon ofglobal warming. The UN Report of theInter-governmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) 2013 reiterates the �ndings

of the earlier 2007 IPCC Report , that⁴global warming is indeed occurring. It canbe argued that this has been caused by theimpact of the forms and levels ofproduction and consumption on theplanet's eco system: The IPCC Report 2013warns that, “Warming of the climatesystem is unequivocal, and since the1950s, many of the observed changes areunprecedented over decades to millennia.T h e a t m o s p h e r e a n d o c e a n h a v ewarmed...” ⁵

Climate change, associated with globalwarming, has caused an increase in theintensity and frequency of extremeclimatic events such as droughts, �oods,hurricanes and extreme cold in someplaces whereas extreme heat in others.These phenomena have caused large scaledestruction with loss of life and livelihoodand associated human suffering. Not onlyhuman beings, but other living creaturesand plants will also be adversely affectedby climate change over the next fourdecades. If average temperatures exceed1.5 °C, then approximately 20 to 30 percentof plant and animal species are likely tobecome extinct .⁶

The current consensus amongst scientistsi s t h a t i f t h e i n c re a s e i n ave r a g etemperatures goes beyond 2 °C by the endof this century, we will enter unchartedterritory and the consequences for the lifesupport systems of the planet could becatastrophic. In view of this, the recentParis Climate Summit (COP 21) aimed toaddress the fact that under current globalemissions trends of 2.2 percent increaseper year, the rise in average globaltemperatures is projected to reachbetween 3.7° to 4.8 °C by the year 2100.Accordingly, to avoid a catastrophe andkeep the end of the century temperatureincrease below 2°C, the world communitywill need to agree to achieve a 40 to 70percent reduction in global greenhousegas emissions by 2050, as compared to the2010 levels.

Humans, Commodities and NatureBeyond the mitigation measures, the longterm effort to restore the life supportsystems of the planet (fresh air, adequatefresh water, fertile soils), can only be

Sustainable Development, Equityand Violence

18

Distinguished Professor of EconomicsForman Christian College University

Dr. Akmal Hussain

�

1719

u n d e r t a k e n t h r o u g h a c h a n g e i nc o n s c i o u s n e s s . T h i s w i l l i n v o l v ed e v e l o p i n g f o r m s o f e c o n o m i corganization and political decision makingthat are based on the human sensibility ofempathy and compassion towards othersand towards nature.

The consciousness that emerged from thesocial and economic life under capitalism ischaracterized by a particular relationshipbetween humans, commodities andnature. I ndiv iduals and economicorganizations within the market systemare pitted in aggressive competition in thepursuit of the accumulation of pro�ts andcommodities. Interaction with the 'other' isseen not as a mode of enhancing the selfbut rather as a means to achieving materialends.

The individual is driven by an insatiabled e s i re to a cq u i re m o re a n d m o recommodities, which are seen as theemblem of one's worth. The productionsystem through its sales efforts hasengendered a consumerist culturewhereby commodities are perceived notmerely in terms of their functions asobjects of convenience but as ther e c e p t a c l e s o f t h e q u a l i t i e s o fattractiveness, efficacy and power. Thus,⁷qualities which are inherent to humanbeings are alienated from them andtransposed into commodities. We are theninvited by the advertisement industry tonot simply acquire commodities butessentially to repossess ourselves .⁸

Capitalism has engendered a culture andconstructed a psyche which impels theindividual to strive to acquire more andmore products. I t is not surprisingt h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e h i s t o r i c a l l yunprecedented increase in the volume andrange of commodities may now beapproaching the maximum loadingcapacity of the eco system. Nor is itsurprising that within such a mode ofproduction and forms of consciousness,nature is regarded as an “exploitableresource”. There is a tendency therefore toobjectify nature as if it were divorced fromthe spiritual experience of knowingourselves as human beings connected toGod and His creation.

The contemporary preeminence given tocommodities can be counterposed by theClassical Greek tradition. Aristotle in hisNicomachean Ethics in 4th century BC,when analyzing the concept of value,suggests that goods cannot be of valuesince they are merely useful. What is ofvalue is the functioning of human beingsaccording to the principles of virtue. Heargues, “If … we state the function of manto be a certain kind of life, and this to be an

activity … of the soul implying a rationalprinciple … human good turns out to beactivity of soul in accordance with virtue…”⁹

Amartya Sen 2,400 years later, in taking upAristotle's insight on human functioningwhile ignoring his emphasis on a life ofvirtue, has presented a new perspective on'Development as Freedom' . Dr. Mahbub�⁰ul Haq had earlier pioneered the conceptof human development, broadened theconcern of development from merely percapita incomes to two additional vitalaspects of human well being: health andeducation. He made a lasting impact onpubl ic pol ic y across the world byquantifying these three elements (percapita income, health and education) intoa Human Development Index. AmartyaSen takes the idea of development furtherby suggesting that not only is it necessaryto provide the material requirements ofhuman functioning such as health,education, income, but at the same time, awhole range of entitlements related withfreedoms that human beings consider tobe of value .��

A P e r s p e c t i v e o n S u s t a i n a b l eDevelopmentThe idea of Sustainable Developmentwhich is now exercising the minds ofpublic policy makers in view of theenvironmental crisis, was originallypropounded by Mrs. Brundtland and herteam that produced the Report of theWorld Commission on Environment andDevelopment (WCED) in the mid-1980s .��I t was de�ned in the WCED as “…development that meets the needs of thepresent without compromising the abilityof future generations to meet their ownn e e d s” . T h i s d e �n i t i o n h a s t w o��conceptual underpinnings which haveprofound implications for economics andeconomic policy.

First, sustainable development so de�nedinvolves a sense of responsibility for futuregenerations in terms of pursuing theindividual and collective welfare of thepresent generation so that the life supportsystems of the planet (fresh water, fresh air,fertile soils) are maintained for futuregenerations to ful�ll their needs. Thisimplies a shift away from the centralproposition of conventional Neo ClassicalEconomics, that the optimum outcome ofthe market mechanism requires that thelife time income of the individual bemaximized . The above de�nition of�⁴sustainable development suggests thatthe individual must act today out of a senseo f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o w a r d s f u t u r eg e n e r a t i o n s . T h e r e i s t h e r e f o r e ,recognition that the individual is part of acommunity that lives in history from

generation to generation.

Second, it can be argued that since theconcept of sustainable developmentinvolves a sense of responsibility towardsfuture generations yet unborn, it surelyimplies responsibility towards othermembers of the human community livingin the present generation, who may bedeprived of the ability to ful�ll their needs.This again goes against the grain of NeoClassical Economics which propounds thepursuit of individual welfare maximizationr e g a r d l e s s o f i n t e r p e r s o n a lconsiderations. Thus, it can be suggested,that contrary to conventional economictheory but inherent to the idea ofsustainable development, is a concern fore q u i t y . T h e r e f o r e , i f s u s t a i n a b l edevelopment is to be meaningful, equalityof opportunity for all members of societymust be bui l t into the process ofdevelopment. I have presented elsewherea framework for such an inclusivedevelopment in Pakistan . Furthermore, I�⁵have argued that inclusive development isn o t o n l y n e c e s s a r y f o r h u m a ndevelopment but, in so far as it creates abroad base for savings, investment andinnovation, it leads to higher long termgrowth. Inclusive development would alsocontribute to greater social cohesion andthereby help control violence in society.

One can suggest that an importantdimension of human functioning whichh a s n o t y e t b e e n r e c o g n i z e d i nd e ve l o p m e n t l i te r a t u re i s t h a t o fdeveloping our sense of beauty andexperiencing our humanness through arelationship of care and compassion witheach other and with nature. It meansexperiencing the other as a means ofknowing oneself. It also involves a re-awareness that the mountains, the rivers,the trees, the soil and all living creatures onearth are part of a sacred unity thatsustains our physical and spiritual life. Thisconsciousness is common to many of thewisdom traditions of the world particularlySouth Asia .�⁶

ConclusionThere must be the recognition thatprotecting the life support systems of theplanet is rooted in a rediscovery of theexperience of being human: loving caretowards all creatures and the physicalenvironment. This means conducting theprocess of development such that it ismarked by equity, justice and is in harmonywith nature. This is the narrative that canbecome the basis of a new trajectory ofsustainable development.

Additional sources consulted:

1. Aristotle, The Nicomachean Ethics, Book I, Section 5, W.D. Ross (ed), Oxford

U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s , 1 9 8 0 , P D F V e r s i o n , P a g e 7 .

http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.1.i.html

2. Atkinson, Anthony B. 2015. Inequality, What Can Be Done? Harvard University Press,

Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.

3. Bator, Francis M. 1957. The Simple Analytics of Welfare Maximization,The American

Economic Review,Vol. 47, No. 1 (Mar., 1957).

4. Brundtland. 1987. Our Common Future, Report of the World Commission on

Environment and Development, Oxford University Press, Delhi.

5. Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers,

Working Group-I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-

governmental Panel on Climate Change, [Stocker,T.F., D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M.Tignor,

S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and NewYork, NY, USA.

6. Heilbroner, Robert. 1994. 21st Century Capitalism, Norton Paperback, NewYork, NY.

7. Hussain, Akmal. 2002. Commodities and the Displacement of Desire, Daily Times,

Lahore, 28 November 2002.

8. Hussain, Akmal. 2004. Imperialism,The Encyclopaedia of Capitalism, Golson Books,

Ltd. NewYork.

9. Hussain, Akmal. 2014. Strengthening Democracy through Inclusive Growth,

chapter in, Akmal Hussain and Muchkund Dubey (ed.), Democracy, Sustainable

Development and Peace: New Perspectives on South Asia, Oxford University Press,

New Delhi.

10. Hussain, Akmal. 2014. The Eternal in the Ephemeral, Photographs and Poems,

Topical Printers, Lahore.

11. Hussain, Akmal. 2015.The Planet in Peril and A Civilization in Crisis: Reviving a Sense

of the Sacred, Chapter 1, in Christian W. Troll and Liam O'Callaghan (ed.), The

Sacredness of Creation, Multimedia Affairs, Lahore.

12. IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers in, Climate Change 2007: Impacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group-II to the Fourth

Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry,

O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge

University Press, Cambridge, UK.

13. Lings, Martin. 2010.What is Su�sm?,The IslamicTexts Society, Cambridge.

14. Marx, Karl. 1971. Capital,Volume I, Progress Publishers, Moscow.

15. Nasr, Seyyed Hossein. 1992. Islam and the Environmental Crisis, chapter 5, in Steven

C. Rockefeller and John C. Elder (eds.), Spirit and Nature, Why the Environment Is a

Religious Issue, Beacon Press, Boston, Massachusetts.

16. Piketty, Thomas. 2014. Capital in the Twenty First Century, Translated by Arthur

Goldhammer, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London,

England.

17. Sen, Amartya. 1999. Development as Freedom, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

18. Sweezy, Paul M. 1968.TheTheory of Capitalist Development, Monthly Review Press,

NewYork, NY.

19. Vatsyayan, Kapila. 2014. Pluralism and Diversity in South Asia, chapter in, Akmal

Hussain and Muchkund Dubey (ed.), Democracy, Sustainable Development and

Peace: New Perspectives on South Asia, Oxford University Press, New Delhi.

References:

1. Parts of this paper are drawn from the latest publication of the author: Akmal Hussain, The Planet in Peril and A Civilization in Crisis: Reviving a Sense of the Sacred, Chapter 1, in Christian W. Troll and

Liam O'Callaghan (eds.),The Sacredness of Creation, Multimedia Affairs, Lahore, 2015.

See:2.

(i) Karl Marx, Capital,Volume I, Progress Publishers, Moscow, 1971, Chapters 23, 24 and 25.

(ii) Paul M. Sweezy,TheTheory of Capitalist Development, Monthly Review Press, 1968, Chapter-5.

(iii) Robert Heilbroner, 21st Century Capitalism, Norton Paperback, NewYork, NY, 1994, Chapters 3 and 5.

(iv) Akmal Hussain: Imperialism, paper in the Encyclopaedia of Capitalism, Golson Books, Ltd. NewYork, June 2004.

3. For a more detailed discussion see:

(i) Akmal Hussain, Imperialism, op.cit.

(ii) Thomas Piketty, Capital in theTwenty First Century,Translated by Arthur Goldhammer, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England, 2014.

(iii) Anthony B. Atkinson, Inequality,What Can Be Done? Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England, 2015.

4. IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers in, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability, Contribution ofWorking Group-II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental

Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, Page 11.

5. Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers, Working Group-I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change,

[Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,

Page 2.

6. IPCC Report 2007, op.cit.

Akmal Hussain, Commodities and the Displacement of Desire, DailyTimes, Lahore, 28 November 2002.7.

Akmal Hussain, A Planet in Peril and a Civilization in Crisis: Reviving a Sense of the Sacred, op.cit.8.

9. age 7. http://classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.1.i.htmlAristotle,The Nicomachean Ethics, Book I, Section 5,W.D. Ross (ed), Oxford University Press, 1980, PDFVersion, P

Amartya Sen, Development as Freedom, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1999.10.

Ibid11.

Brundtland, Our Common Future, Report of theWorld Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford University Press, Delhi, 1987.12.

Brundtland, Our Common Future, Report of theWorld Commission on Environment and Development, op.cit. Page 43.13.

Francis M. Bator, The Simple Analytics ofWelfare Maximization,The American Economic Review,Vol. 47, No. 1 (Mar., 1957), pp. 22-59.14.

15. Akmal Hussain, Strengthening Democracy through Inclusive Growth, chapter in, Akmal Hussain and Muchkund Dubey (ed.), Democracy, Sustainable Development and Peace: New Perspectives on

South Asia, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 2014.

16. For a more detailed discussion of this point, see: KapilaVatsyayan, Pluralism and Diversity in South Asia, chapter in, Akmal Hussain and Muchkund Dubey (ed.), Democracy, Sustainable Development

and Peace: New Perspectives on South Asia, Oxford University Press, New Delhi, 2014.

20

Opinion

In the face of obligation to tackle climatechange, many states either remaininsensitive or resort to subterfuge byputting forth the argument that climatechange is global and is caused by richstates who should fund all national efforts.This argument hurts Pakistan because ittends to dismiss the concern of climatechange as “not ours” ignoring clearlyobservable activity inimical to climate liked e f o r e s t a t i o n , d e g r a d a t i o n a n dfragmentation of natural and builtenvironment, construction in hazardouszones and weak water regulation. How cancivil society play a role in in�uencing theNational Climate Change Policy andensure its effective implementation?These are important questions that needto be addressed if civil society wishes toplay a de�ning role in demanding“Climatejustice” with local action and internationalsupport.

Climate Change is a relatively newthematic area for most people and its crosscutting impacts are not easily understoodby developing countries, diminishing itsimportance in local politics and rural andurban social agendas. Pakistani civilsociety is by and large, unaware of climatechange causes and effects or nationalc o n t r i b u t i o n a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a lresponsibility. The Intended NationallyDetermined Contr ibutions ( INDC ) ,Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions(NAMA) or National Adaptation Plan for

Action (NAPA) are all alien terms for mostpeople. Pakistan failed to submit its INDCbefore the 1st October 2015 deadline andhas not registered in the V20 Forum (Aforum set up by �nance ministers ofvulnerable countries) to access fundingfrom the one billion dollar annual GreenClimate Fund, despite the fact thatPakistan is the tenth most vulnerablecountry to climate change in the world .�This re�ects the non-serious approach ofthe government and lack of interest fromcivil society towards an issue that has beendeclared a “de�ning challenge of our timeand a fundamental right of the citizens ofPakistan”by Judge Syed Mansoor Ali Shah,in a landmark judgement in Lahore on 31August 2015 .�

The power of civil society lies in its ability tomake a difference when it stands behind acause motivated by conviction. It can alsochallenge the government and use itsvoice for accountabil ity. Generallyspeaking, Pakistani civil society does notlink issues like food, water, energy anddisasters with climate change. Thisawareness needs to be disseminated tothe masses by Civil Society Organizations(CSOs) and the media to create the criticalmass that can demand climate compatibledevelopment policies to safeguard itssocio-economic wellbeing. Civil society inPakistan is resilient and vibrant, but comesinto effective play for only limitedengagement to achieve short-term goalsmostly in response to humanitarian reliefwork. The role of civil society during the2005 earthquake is an example of thepower of collective action and its success.But apathy among Pakistani civil societytowards climate change is largely due to itspreoccupation with immediate issuesrelated to poor governance, burgeoningpopulation, low levels of literacy, poorcommunity infrastructure, low quality ofhealth and education service delivery, andextended power outages leaving littletime for thought on distant goals.

However, climate change is now fast�nding resonance with rural communitieswho rely on agriculture for sustenance.Therecurrent changes in precipitationpatterns and hydrological imbalances arecreating awareness at the grass root level,

linking food, energy and water withclimate change. The Lahore High Courtjudgement on a public interest litigationcase brought by a farmer againstgovernment failure to develop therequired resilience to climate change as setout in the 2012 National Climate ChangePolicy, is a landmark judgement that willopen new pathways for civil society to usejudicial activism to demand a NationalClimate Change Policy that secures thewellbeing of the masses .�

Civil Society is the "aggregate of non-g o v e r n m e n t a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s a n dinstitutions that manifest interests and willof citizens; individuals and organizationsin a society which are independent of thegovernment.” It has a role to play inshaping social values and critical thinkingthat can in�uence state policy and itssubsequent implementation.

Public awareness about climate changecomes late in the life of a citizen in Pakistan.The reason is either absence of the subjectin school textbooks or incompetent andnon-specialized treatment of the subject.The school textbook which forms the mindof the citizen often carries a heavyideological overlay. The absence orthematic weak ness of non-secularsubjects forms a mind closed to such'distant' topics as climate change, therebya ffe c t i n g t h e c i t i ze n ' s i m m e d i a t eenvironment.

How can the subject of climate change berescued from a sense of 'distance'? Alayman often separates it from change ofenvironment. How can the link betweenenvironment (domestic) and climate(global) be explained to the citizens? Ourtextbooks have mostly covered issues ofenvironmental degradation, air pollutionand poisoning of underground water but,they have not effectively covered climatein such a way as to create a sense ofawareness and responsibility among thegeneral public towards climate changeand its negative consequences. Increasedactivism by civil society to in�uencecurriculum and initiatives to introduceissues of c l imate change throughinteractive events would play a positiverole in sensitizing people and mobilizing

Climate Change: Perspective of aCivil Society Organization

21

Founder and CEOMountain and Glacier Protection

Organization (MGPO)

Aisha Khan

support.

The academia and centres of highereducation also do not address climatechange with the required seriousness. Onereason for this could be the con�ictingo p i n i o n s a m o n g s t t h e s c i e n t i � ccommunity on the interpretation of data,thereby creating controversies that leavepeople confused and uncertain about theconnection between human activity andclimate change.

The print and electronic media can play apivotal role in in�uencing the publicmindset and mobilizing opinion. There arevery few journalists who comment onclimate change in the English print mediaand close to none in the Urdu media, whichhas a larger circulation. Similarly, despitethe proliferation of TV channels, there areno regular programs either to attract theyounger audience, or to engage civilsociety in meaningful dialogue on thesubject.

Government and civil society coordinationand cooperation in multiple ways areessential for promoting awareness andaddressing cl imate change issues.Governments can frame policy but requirethe support of civil society for effectiveimplementation. Similarly, civil societyvoices cannot bring change withoutregulatory support from the government.Civil society can play an effective role ina d o p t i n g c o l l a b o r a t i v e a n d n o n -confrontational approaches to buildco n s e n s u s o n c l i m a te co m p a t i b l edevelopment policies and removingdisconnects that exist between the stateand non-state actors in the broaderunderstanding of climate change and itsshort and long term effects.

Persuading civil society will be a long-termprogram starting with a patient campaignat the grassroots level; persuading thestate will take longer, but sustained voicesfrom civil society can ultimately achievethis goal.

However, to be truly effective, civil societyi n Pa k i s t a n m u s t l e a r n to m a k e adistinction between the impact of poorgovernance at home and the effects ofglobal warming on Pakistan as a result ofactions by developed countries. Once itdevelops this understanding, it will be in abetter position to demand local action andinternational commitments in in�uencingthe National Climate Change Policy in waysthat are fair and equitable for all.

References:

1. Global Climate Risk Index 2016. Available at https://germanwatch.org/en/download/13503.pdf

2. Public interest litigation case, Asghar Leghari versus the government. Available at http://www.dawn.com/news/1209256

3. Ibid

22

Opinion

IntroductionAdapting to and mitigating climatechange is a multi-sectoral and a multi-dimensional challenge. It is not onlysufficient to address it theoretically andconceptually at a policy level, butimplementation and monitoring ofrelevant interventions need to be backedby public �nancing, allocation andexpenditures. Underscoring the role ofp u b l i c e x p e n d i t u re s n e ce s s a r y toimplement the climate change agenda,UNDP supported the Ministry of ClimateChange for a study on 'Climate PublicExpenditure and Institutional Review(CPEIR)' to establish policy, institutionaland public expenditures benchmarks,guidelines and recommendations .�

Similar to the World Bank work on PublicExpenditure Reviews (PERs), PublicExpenditure and Institutional Reviews( P E I R s ) a n d P u b l i c E x p e n d i t u r eEnvironment Reviews (PEERs), the CPEIRobjective is to aggregate spending acrossthe area of climate change, to provideinformation on spending and allocationand to link this to policy objectives.However, the CPEIR approach is madem o re c h a l l e n gi n g b e c a u s e o f t h e

disaggregation of expenditure acrossmany governmental bodies as well as theclimate bene�cial responses sitting withinbusiness-as-usual activities in thosesectors.

Methodology and Data SourcesIn methodological terms, the climatebudget is made through an aggregation ofseparate climate related elements. In thisstudy, as well as with many otherimplemented CPEIRs, data is collected bybudget line within key line ministries andthen aggregated to form an overallgovernmental climate budget for thetargeted institutions. For each budget linewithin the selected governmental bodies,a three phase process is undertaken:

I d e n t i � c a t i o n o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e

expenditures: Budget lines which have anadaptation or mitigation component areselected as a sub-set of the overall data forfurther analysis.

Classifying climate change expenditure:Budget lines are classi�ed into oneintervention type from a pre-determinedlist of intervention types linked to climatechange policy objectives.

A s s e s s i n g c l i m a t e r e l e v a n c e :

Determining the proportion of theexpenditure of the budget line which isrelated to climate change outcomes. Asthe context of this discussion is the publicexpenditure pro�le of climate change, it isuseful to dilate on this phase:

Similar to the methodology followed inprevious CPEIRs, a number of categoriesrelated to expenditure were created, fromhighly relevant (75 percent+) down tomarginal relevance (<25 percent). Arationale for the high, medium low andmarginal categories were established andpossible examples of the types ofexpenditures were placed into eachcategory to aid categorization.

The federal level estimates of climatechange relevant public expenditure basedon the above methodology are derivedfrom four years data (2010/11, 2011/12,2012/13 and 2013/14) available from

various government budget and publicsector investment publications .�

How much is the federal government ofPakistan investing currently?In-depth analysis of the federal budget ofthe four years (2010-14) under study havethe following implications for climatechange response: From an investmentangle, the growth in developmentexpenditures is fairly respectable andnearly three times the growth in thecurrent budget. Slowly increasing share ofclimate response is embedded ratherexplicitly through investment in projectsrelated to energy, agriculture andcommunications. However, the increasingshare of investment spending outside thePublic Sector Development Programme(PSDP) versus PSDP budgeted investmentindicates that short-term prioritiesoverride the planned policy aligned-allocations, undermining the formalprocess of PSDP formulation with theprobable consequential fall out forincreasing explicit investment in climaterelated projects.

In terms of budgeting higher currentexpenditure for climate response, thetrends indicate that the current budget isover-stretched with only 8-9 percentallocated to the running of the federalgovernment and a large part committed tonon-discretionary expenditures. Effectiveclimate response in future will requireincreasing technical and professionalcapacities of existing human resources aswell as increasing the pool of human talentand allied supporting infrastructure. Thus,the challenge for planning and �nanceofficials is to mainstream climate changeinto the current budget.

Table 1 presents summary results ofclimate change-related expenditures atthe federal level for four years. During thistime, climate change related expendituresby the federal government moved in aclose of 5.8-7.4 percent of the total budget.These trends for Pakistan comparefavourably with Bangladesh as it spent 6-7percent of its annual combined

Climate Public Expenditure andInstitutional Review (CPEIR):An Analysis of Key Findings

23

Former Director of Centre for Researchon Poverty Reduction and IncomeDistribution and Former Director

(Research and Policy), Pakistan Instituteof Trade and Development

Ex-Principle Economist, Social Policyand Development Centre

Dr. Sajjad Akhtar

1724

(development and non-development)budget on climate sensitivity activityduring 2010-12 . As a ratio of GDP, the�estimated climate change expenditureswere in the range of 1.1 percent during theperiod. In Nepal, although the expenditureon climate change related activitiesconstituted six percent of governmentexpenditure, they were two percent of theGDP . In contrast, in Cambodia, the share⁴of climate relevant expenditure in totalpublic expenditure increased from 14percent in 2009 to nearly 17 percent in2011 .⁵

The pressing need for more energy and themitigation of growing greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions in Pakistan both require asubstantial investment of over �ve percentof GDP . Investment requirements for⁶mitigation to de-link economic growthfrom the corresponding GHG emissionsincrease have been estimated to be theorder of eight billion USD, annually for a 15

percent GHG reduc t ion. There aresigni�cant mitigation possibilities on boththe supply and demand side, with energyconservation measures being moste ffi c i e n t . N a t i o n a l a d a p t a t i o nrequirements have been estimated to bebetween 1.5 and 3.0 percent of GDP andthere is presently a substantial globalshortfall of �nances. Although estimatesare difficult, the average costs for annualadaptation to climate change for Pakistanwere estimated to range annually from sixbillion USD to14 billion USD in 2050, or anaverage 10.7 billion USD per annum (2010�gures). A comparison of the global costestimates with the current level ofadaptat ion funding indicates thatprojected global adaptation needs to bes i gn i �c a n t l y gre a te r t h a n c u r re n ti nve s t m e n t l e ve l s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i nvulnerable developing countries likePakistan.

Climate relevance weight assigned to

interventions in various ministries is animportant building block of the abovesummary expenditure ratios. Figure 1 givesthe mean climate relevance weight by fewselected federal institutions. Generalizingthe above four year trend, water and powersector exhibits' strong relevance, followedby environment/climate change division.The average climate relevance of projectsunder Science and Technology Researchand Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan Divisionsshow variability across the four years andpossess strong to moderate relevance.Some other �ndings from the analysis are:

a) The relative proportion of the climate-relevant budget spent on adaptation andmitigation varied signi�cantly acrossstudied years; adaptation varied between25 and 60 percent and mitigation between30 and 71 percent (combined adaptationand mitigation bene�ts were a maximumof 11 percent) . While the �scal headroom⁷f o r c l i m a t e - r e l a t e d d e v e l o p m e n texpenditures is tight, it is nonethelessgrowing. Bangladesh and Nepal spend 97and 75 percent respectively, of theirclimate relevant budget on adaptationactivities.

b) The number of climate -relevantdevelopment projects and the proportionof climate-relevant projects within eachgovernment institution vary widely across

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

Cabinet Secretariat/ Atomic Energy Commission Division

Communication/ NHA Division

Defense Division and SUPARCO

Federal Education and Professional Training

Environment /Climate Change Division

Finance, Rev, Stat & Privatization

Interior and Narcotics control/Ministry of Population welfare

Kashmir Affairs & Gilgit Baltistan Division

Science & Technological Research Division

Water and Power Div (Water &Power Sector)

Railways Division

Housing & Work Division

Higher Education Commission

Figure 1: Mean Relevance Weight

2013-14

2012-13

2011-12

2010-11

Table 1: Federal Government summary results

(Million Rs.) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Total CC Weighted Actual Expenditures- (a)

Total Revise Budgetary Expenditure- (b)

Total CC weighted expenditure as apercentage of total budgetary expenditure

192048.26

2537438.00

7.57%

199330.07

3057334.00

6.52%

196733.42

3402848.00

5.78%

243400.49

3912945.00

6.22%

1725

References:

1. Similar reviews have been conducted for Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Samoa,Thailand andVietnam.

2. For further details of the methodology, sources of data and challenges faced in estimation, see chapter 4 and 5 of the CPEIR, UNDP, May 2015.

3. Bangladesh Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR), May, 2012.

4. Nepal Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR), December 2011.

5. Cambodia Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review, July 2012.

6. Pending more accurate estimation of CC expenditures in the province of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan, the aggregate CC expenditures by the Federal and KP Governments and three regions

(GB,FATA and AJK) constituted 1.1 percent of national GDP in 2013-14. In a back of the envelope exercise, if we add another 125 billion PKR, a combined estimate of the other 3 provinces, it will raise

the ratio in the range of 1.5-1.75 percent of national GDP.

7. For the year 2013-14, see Figure 2.

the studied years, suggesting rather erraticresource allocation and policy delivery.Thehighest percentage of climate-relevantprojects tended to be in the Ministry ofClimate Change (MCC), the Water andPower Division and the Kashmir Affairs andGilgit-Baltistan Division.

c) In terms of absolute expenditure,between 60 and 80 percent of the totalc l imate -re lated ac tual investmentexpenditure during the four years is splitbetween two ministries; the Ministry ofWater and Power (MoWP) (including theWater and Power Development Authority[ WAPDA]) and the Cabinet Division(including the Atomic Energy Commission[AEC]). These erratic patterns of CC-relatedexpenditures highlight the need for anoverarching CC �nancing frameworkwhich can help streamline budgetallocations and ensure a holistic responseto CC challenges in the country.

What Pakistan needs to do from a �scalperspectivea) The National Climate Change Policy andFramework for Implementation are inplace, but challenges remain in prioritizingactions and converting them into budget-p r i o r i t i z a t i o n a g e n d a s a n dimplementation plans.

b) Planning and budgeting still remain twod i s p a r a t e d o m a i n s b e c a u s e t h einstitutional arrangement remains dividedin different agencies. This weak linkagebecomes further fragmented when itcomes to crosscutting issues like climatechange.

c) Mainstreaming climate change issomewhat limited and may well remain sountil there is a clearer working agreementon post-18th Amendment mandatesacross the MCC, MoF and MPDR.

Figure 2: Allocation of expenditures to climaterelevant themes in the PSDP of 2013-2014

54%

26%

18%

2%

Mi�ga�on

Suppor�ng ac�vi�es

A/M

Adaptation

Source: CPEIR Pakistan, UNDP, May 2015.

Opinion

“In Paris, we will need to respond withcommon but differentiated responsibilityto the threat posed by climate change.Partisan interests must not stand in theway of an ambitious and collectivecommitment to halt and reverse thedamage done to our planet,” Pakistan'sPrime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif told theUnited Nations General Assembly inSeptember 2015.

About a month later, he-along with USPresident Barrack Obama-expressed thecountry's commitment to press for anambitious agreement on climate changeat the Paris cl imate conference inDecember 2015.

In the backdrop of these remarks, oneexpected Pakistan to have efficiently andtransparent ly developed its INDC( I n t e n d e d N a t i o n a l l y D e t e r m i n e dContribution) and really showcased itscommitment to the cause. Yet, whatfollowed was quite the contrary. Pakistan'smuch delayed INDC was only a page long-350 words to be precise-and failed to makea n y q u a n t i t a t i v e o r q u a l i t a t i v ecommitments to mitigate and/or adapt toclimate change.

For the uninitiated, an INDC is a documentthat sets out a country's non-bindingintentions to reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions and the steps or �nancingneeded to take such mitigation or

adaptation measures.

According to the UNFCCC convention, anINDC is expected to share quanti�ableinformation about GHG mitigation, thereference point or a base year, time framesfor implementation, scope and coverage,planning processes, assumptions andmethodological approaches.

Thanks to a lack of clarity on part ofU N F C C C , t h e r e i s n o c l e a r c u tunderstanding or any standard pro-formaof what an INDC should be comprised of orhow it should be structured. The generalunderstanding however, is that the INDCof a developed country should be morefocused on mitigation measures, whereasthat of a developing country is focusedmore on adaptation and the �nances,capacity building and technology transferneeded for mitigation and adaptation.

These unsaid and unwritten rules arerooted in two key articles of the UNFCCCconvention, namely Article 3.1 and Article4.7. The former refers to the principle ofequity and common but differentiatedresponsibility, as well as the need fordeveloped countries to take the lead incombating climate change.

The latter says that “the extent to whichdeveloping countries will effectivelyimplement their commitments under theconvention will depend on the effectiveimplementation by developed countriesof their commitments related to �nancialresources and transfer of technology andwill take fully into account the fact thateconomic and social development andpoverty-eradication are the �rst andoverriding priorities of developingcountries.”

The Development Of Pakistan's INDCThe INDC in its current proposed form wasconceptualized at the COP20 held inDecember 2014, albeit the general ideahad been agreed upon at COP19 inNovember 2013. Switzerland was the �rstcountry to submit its INDC in February2015, whereas Pakistan, which is one of thelast countries to submit its INDC, startedworking on it in mid-March 2015.

In order to get a more holistic view andperhaps to speed up the process,Pakistan's Ministry of Climate Change(MoCC) decided to form two groups for thepurpose of preparing the country's INDC.The �rst of these was an internal groupcomprising of the ministry's officials,whereas the second was an external groupcomprising of technical experts who werefunded by international donors.

The draft INDC proposed by the former isnow known as 'Zero Draft', which was�nalized mid-August 2015, whereas thedraft proposed by the latter is known as'Con�dential Draft', �nalized on August 28,2015.

Before we evaluate the early drafts, it ispertinent to note that both the drafts saidthat “four consultat ive workshopscovering all stakeholders were organizedbefore, and after the commencement ofthe task of preparation of INDC-Pakistan”.Sources say, however, that in reality, onlyone full-�edged three day consultationworkshop was held between March 30thand April 1st. That workshop was mainlyrepresented by stakeholders in the federalgovernment, with limited participation ofp r o v i n c i a l g o v e r n m e n t s . L o c a lgovernments could not be represented forwant of it , whereas private sectorbusinesses did not participate.

Commenting on this subject, Dr VaqarAhmed, Deputy Executive Director atSustainable Development Policy Institute,points out that the main reduction inemissions is expected from the changedb e h a v i o u r o f p r i v a t e s e c t o r a n dhouseholds. “While the former were noton-board the government consultations,the latter really require a level of outreachnot envisaged at the government level,”hesaid.

In contrast, Vietnam's INDC has beendeveloped with the participation andc o n t r i b u t i o n s f r o m d i ff e r e n t l i n em i n i s t r i e s , n o n - g o v e r n m e n t a lorganizations, research institutions,business sector representatives as well asinternational development partners.Likewise, Kenya's INDC is built on theparticipatory multi-stakeholder and cross-

Pakistan's INDC: Where Did We GoWrong?

26

Research EditorBusiness Recorder

Sohaib Jamali �

1727

sectoral consultative processes during thedevelopment of their national climatechange response strategy and plans at thenational levels.

An Evaluation Of Pakistan's INDCBoth the 'Zero Draft' and the 'Con�dentialDraft' prepared by Pakistan conveyed asense of commitment to the cause of

combating climate change. Both madecertain quantitative commitments basedon business-as-usual (BAU) estimates andalso speci�ed the policy measures that thecountry could take in terms of mitigationand adaptation across the sectorsidenti�ed in the respective drafts (see table1).

However, just before the submission of theINDC to the UNFCCC, a third and �nal draftemerged-one that was devoid of anyquantitative commitments or qualitativepolic y measures. This was a majordisappointment, particularly consideringthat almost all INDCs from developed anddeveloping countries have economy-wide,or near economy-wide sectoral coverage.

GDP/capital($)

Country BaseLevel

ReductionTarget

TargetYear

SectorsSector-wise

measures

Vulnerab-ility

International�nancing

needs

Table 1: COMPARISON OF INDC

USA54,629.50 2005 26% - 28% (unconditional) 2025 Energy,industrialprocesses andproduct use,agriculture,waste

Not speci�ed Nonementioned

Nonementioned

Japan36,194.40 2013 26% (unconditional) 2030 Same as above Speci�ed withGHG butwithout USDamounts

Nonementioned

Nonementioned

EU34,300 1990 40% (unconditional) 2030 Same as above Not speci�ed Nonementioned

Nonementioned

South Korea27,971 37% (BAU) 2030 Same as above Not speci�ed Nonementioned

Nonementioned

Russia12,736 1990 25% - 30% 2030 Same as above Not speci�ed Nonementioned

Nonementioned

Brazil11,385 2005 37% - 43% (unconditional) 2025 -2030

Not speci�ed Speci�edwithout GHG orUSD amounts

Passingreference

Nonementioned

China7,594 2005 60% - 65% 2030 Not speci�ed Not speci�ed Passingreference

Nonementioned

Sri Lanka3,631 2010 7% (unconditional) (BAU)(4% energy, 3% othersectors), 23%(conditional) (16% energy,7% other sectors)

2030 Energy,transportation,industry, wasteand forestry.

Speci�edwithout GHG orUSD amounts

Briefmention

USD amount notmentioned butconditionalreductions aresubjectto external�nancial support,technologytransfer andcapacity building

Indonesia3,492 N/A 29% (BAU)(unconditional),additional 12%(conditional oninternational support)

2030 Energy,industrialprocesses andproduct use,agriculture,waste

Not speci�ed Detailedmention

USD amount notmentioned; but12% BAUreductionis subject to techtransfer, capacitybuilding, access to�nance

Viet Nam2,052 2010 8% (BAU) (unconditional),additional 17%(conditional oninternational support)

2030 Energy,transportation,agriculture,forestry andother land use,waste


Detailedmention

USD amount notmentioned butsays that stateresources can onlymeet30% of adaptationneeds

1728

GDP/capital($)

Country BaseLevel

ReductionTarget

TargetYear

SectorsSector-wise

measures

Vulnerab-ility

International�nancing

needs

COMPARISON OF INDC

India1,596 2005 33% - 35% (contingent onArticle 3.1 & 4.7)

2030 Not Speci�ed Speci�edwithout GHG orUSD amounts

Detailedmention,justi�esdevelopment

International�nance needs tobe �nalized later,preliminaryestimates equal$2.5 trillion

Ghana1,443 2010 15% (BAU)(unconditional),additional 30%(conditional oninternational support)

2025-2030

Energy,industrialprocesses andproduct use,agriculture,waste

Speci�ed withUSD amountsbut withoutGHG

Passingreference

$16 billion

Kenya1,358 N/A 30% (BAU) 2030 Same as above Speci�edwithout GHG orUSD amounts

Passingreference

$40 billion formitigation andadaptation acrosssectors

Pakistan -Submitted draft

1,334 None None None Potentially allsectors

Not speci�ed Nonementioned

None mentioned

Pakistan - Zerodraft

1,334 N/A 37% on energy supply,22% energy demand, 8%transportation, 5.5% agriand forestry (BAU)

2030 Energydemand/supply, agricultureand forestry,transport


Detailedmention

None mentioned.No explicitmention ofconditionality butimplicitly basedon Article 4.1

Pakistan -Con�dential draft

1,334 2012 Option 1: 10% (5%unconditional, 5%conditional)Option 2: 18% (5%unconditional, 13%conditional)Option 3: 18%(conditional)

2030 Energy(includingtransportation)and agriculture


Detailedmention


Bangladesh1,093 N/A 5% (BAU) (unconditional),15% (conditional oninternational support)

2030 Power,transport,industry


Detailedmention


Zimbabwe896 N/A 33%(BAU) (conditional)

2030 Energy Speci�ed withUSD amountsbut withoutGHG

Detailedmention

$26.175 billionrequired foradaptingmeasures inagricultural sector

Afghanistan659 2005 13.6%(BAU) (conditional)

2030 Energy, naturalresourcemanagement,agriculture,wastemanagementand mining

Speci�ed withUSD amountsbut withoutGHG

Detailedmention

Detailed �nancingneeds mentioned.Total: $17.4 billion,of which $10.7billion is foradaptation and$6.6 billion is formitigation

Source: UNFCC INDC Submissions: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx (World Bank for per capita GDP)BAU=Business as Usual scenario

1729

References:

1. The writer's views do not necessarily represent that of the newspaper he is engaged with.

2. Pakistan is the tenth most affected country in the world according to Global Climate Risk Index 2015.

Table 1 shows how even countries from thelow middle income group-such as Kenyaand Bangladesh-as well as low incomeg r o u p - s u c h a s Z i m b a b w e a n dAfghanistan-have made some quantitativecommitments to reduce emissions, even ifthey are conditional pledges.

Moreover, the investment requirement foradaptation and mitigation has really notb e e n e s t i m a te d by Pa k i s t a n . “ Th egovernment was informed regardingpractices in other countries, which link theemissions with macro-level forecasts ofsectors such as LSM and transport. Thebasic macro modeling that should havegone into estimating the investmentrequirement was not undertaken. This wasnot a matter of expertise as the FinanceDivision could have done this if ministriesof climate change and of �nance hadcoordinated with each other,” says Dr.Vaqar.

Pakistan's INDC submitted to UNFCCC isalso factually incorrect. It states that thedocument is “also aligned with thecountry's continued commitment to theissue of climate change as re�ected in theNational Climate Change Policy as well asnational policies on agriculture, power,energy, energy efficiency, water and othersectors.” The reality, however, is thatP a k i s t a n d o e s n o t h a v e a n ycomprehensive agriculture policy; nordoes it have a fully developed andapproved water policy as yet.

Government sources give two reasons forPakistan's weak INDC. First, certain foreignpolicy experts advised the governmentthat they should not quantify any intentionfor mitigation because they fear that thesewould be made legally binding. Second,Pakistan lacks the data to be able todetermine its voluntary mitigation.However, both these arguments are ratherwanting, and an official reason for a weakINDC is still anybody's guess.

Pakistan's 'Zero Draft' had clearly statedthat the statement of contribution is 'anintention only', subject to what would beagreed at COP21. “INDC-Pakistan would,therefore, not constitute an internationalobl igat ion of the countr y, and itsimplementation will be based on domesticand external resources. It is also based onthe current socio-economic conditions,and provides projections for the period2020-2030. It shall be periodically updated,based on national circumstances,”the Zero

Draft said. The statement of this caveatcould have accompanied an officialsubmission of any of the earlier drafts, once�ne-tuned.

The Sri Lankan INDC also clearly states thatthe country “reserves the right to revise itsintended national contributions andtargets at any point of time and consider itsINDCs to be a living document that shouldbe integrated with changed/modi�ednational development goals and targets.”Likewise, Bangladesh states that it“reserves the right to revise its intendednational target and contribution at anypoint of time and considers its INDC to be aliving document that should be integratedw i t h c h a n g e d / m o d i � e d n a t i o n a ldevelopment goals and targets.”

Similarly, the absence of data has notprevented many other countries fromsubmitting their INDC. Bangladesh, forinstance, clearly stated that their “dataquality and availability is an issue inBangladesh. If new and more robust datacomes to l ight in the future, or i fassumptions change, the government willu p d a t e i t s a n a l y s i s a c c o r d i n g l y ”.Afghanistan had also faced the challengesof “lack of reliable historical climate data”,whereas Zimbabwe admitted that it hadused “prox y data” in places whereinformation gaps existed.

You Snooze,You LoseThe unfortunate reality is that the worlddoes not wait for laggards: you snooze, youlose. And Pakistan has done just that.

If Pakistan really feared that the INDCwould become legally binding, it couldhave made an entirely conditionalcontribution to GHG mitigation, such asoption three of the 'Con�dential Draft'. Andif it did not want to put out officialnumbers, it should have at least spelled outthe policy measures needed for mitigationand adaptation.

The latter would have been a’ la SaudiArabia, which did not give a quantitativeGHG reduction target, but at least spelledout policy measures it plans to take-such asenergy efficiency, methane recovery,marine protection, water managementetc.

Pa k i s t a n ' s f a i l u re t o s p e l l o u t i t svulnerability to climate change in detailalso means that it has lost the opportunityto make a case in front of the lobbyists,

donors, and negotiators from across theworld. Other countries, such as India,Indonesia and Zimbabwe, have detailedtheir vulnerabilities in their INDC eventhough they are not as vulnerable toclimate change as Pakistan . Pakistan too�needed to explain how vulnerability inspeci�c sectors or for speci�c communitiesshapes its needs and priorities.

On a related note, Dr.Vaqar aptly points outthat Pakistan has not been imaginativeenough to coin a regional solution to risingemissions. “In the �rst consultation, a keypoint was raised regarding role of Chinaand India in increasing the incidence ofenvironmental deterioration in Pakistan,”he added. How should we pursue both ourneighbours and compel them to reducethe black carbon leading to faster meltingof Pakistani glaciers? This is one of the keyelements missing from Pakistan's INDC.

By submitting what is arguably the world'sshortest INDC, Pakistan has given itself theshort end of the stick. But losing a fewwickets at the start of a cricket match doesnot necessarily mean that you have lost thematch; it means you got a weak start andthe test lies in making up for the losses. Canthe Pakistani team win?

say that again

Interview

Pervez KhattakChief Minister,Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

Is there sufficient awareness regarding climate change and itsimpacts in Pakistan, especially Khyber Pakhtukhwa, amongkey policy makers? What should be done to further enhanceawareness and create and sustain the commitment of policymakers in this important area?

The government of Pakistan is working at a national and sub-national level to address climate change issues and its impacts onthe country. To create awareness on climate change and to draft aprovincial policy, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)has established a Climate Change Cell for MultilateralEnvironmental Agreements (MEAs) under the supervision of theEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA), which has beenfunctional since June 2014 under an Annual DevelopmentProgramme Scheme. The Cell houses representatives from allprovincial line departments and the issue is being tackled on adivisional basis throughout the province.

In order to create awareness, a total of five training workshops andone seminar have been held so far in different educationalinstitutes across the province in the previous year. The ClimateChange Cell of EPA will also address the issue in other parts of KP, asper available budget for the fiscal year 2015-16.

The government of KP, under its Green Growth Initiative, launcheda massive afforestation/re-afforestation project entitled 'BillionTrees Plantation' from 2014, under which one billion trees are tobe planted in the province within four years.

In order to combat the global crisis of climate change, all partiesmust work together in achieving results. This includes receivingsupport from developed countries and international donors suchas UNDP, GIZ etc, to assist in the field of Climate FriendlyTechnology Transfer such as hydro and solar technology, capacitybuilding on MEAs and its implementation, as well as financial helpto address the issue of climate change and the importance ofMEAs on district to district, and village to village levels in KP.

Is climate mitigation and adaptation a priority of KhyberPakhtukhwa’s overall policy framework and publicexpenditure? What policy, legal or administrative changesand measures are needed in this regard?

The National Climate Change Policy 2012 clearly definesmitigation and adaptation. KP's provincial policy is also in processand will propose recommendations for both mitigation andadaptation in various sectors including, but not limited to, waterresources, agriculture, forestry, wildlife and biodiversity, energyconservation, transport, industries and town planning.

The province is currently spending more than seven percent of itstotal budget on combating climate change (CPEIR Report 2015).Once the provincial policy is finalized by 2016, the ProvincialClimate Change Implementation Committee (PCCIC) willundertake the task of implementation, under the chairmanship ofKP's Provincial Minster for Environment.

What are the implementation issues with regard to climatechange adaptation and mitigation, especially at theprovincial, district and community levels? What should bedone to improve the situation?

As of present, the Provincial Climate Change Policy is still underprocess-a draft of the policy was reviewed by the AdvisoryCommittee and changes are underway, as per the discrepancieshighlighted by the committee.

In order to improve the situation, sufficient budgetary allocationsare required for conducting trainings and seminars for sensitizingpolicy makers and government line departments, at utmostpriority.

“...sufficient budgetary allocations are

required for conducting trainings and

seminars for sensitizing policy makers

and government line departments.”

30

Interview

Arif Ahmed KhanSecretary,Ministry of Climate Change

say that again

“...climate change framework needs

continuous flow of money, access to

subsidized technology and development

of capacities.”

31

Is there sufficient awareness regarding climate change and itsimpacts in Pakistan, especially among key policy makers?What should be done to further enhance awareness andcreate and sustain the commitment of policy makers in thisimportant area?

Yes there is sufficient awareness among policy makers andofficials who are involved in making decisions that have direct oreven indirect relevance to climate change. When policy makersmake their decisions in committees, or task forces, or ministries,they also take advice from consultants and advisors and otherpeople who are experts on the subject. In any major decision orproject, specialists are always sought to improve the decisionmaking process.

Climate change, being of pivotal importance, is always kept in dueconsideration whenever a major project is being planned. Ofcourse, there is always a need for additional knowledge and betterunderstanding, as the subject is also evolving. This is a continuousprocess. At the policy level, we expect our offices to keep abreastof the latest developments and data regarding climate changefrom around the world.

Is climate mitigation and adaptation a priority of Pakistan'soverall policy framework and public expenditure? Whatpolicy, legal or administrative changes and measures areneeded in this regard?

Mitigation and adaptation are both a priority, adaptation more sothan mitigation. We are tiny emitters so mitigation is our secondpreference. Nonetheless, it is an important part because we do notwant to fall out of sync with what the UNFCCC (United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change) wants the wholeworld to do. And we also do not want to be in a situation where wereach a level of emissions that is undesirable for our ownenvironment, let alone international standards.

Frankly, if you look at our policy document, it practically takes careof all these issues. There are legal instruments available with allenvironment protection agencies in the country, at both theprovincial and federal levels. The real question is aboutimplementation. We have the laws, policies and direction. Theimplementation needs some serious thought.


Implementation has a lot of issues and they are essentially thesame limitations which exist in all developing countries. First, isthe limitation of finance. All developing countries, constantlystrained for resources, find it very hard to spare enough money forthis issue in our resource allocation. Second, a lot of technology isrequired to handle this issue in the long run, and this technology isnot manufactured or available in the developing countries. It isavailable in the developed world at a very high cost. The federalgovernments of most developing nations find it very hard toacquire the technology without paying an exorbitant cost. Finally,the third issue is capacity, both in terms of human resources andthe institutional setup. Comprehensively and in order to besustainable, climate change framework needs continuous flow ofmoney, access to subsidized technology and development ofcapacities.

© Photo by UNIDO

Interview

Shafqat KakakhelMember Board of Governors, Sustainable Development Policy InstituteFormer Assistant Secretary General of UN

32


I think there is sufficient awareness among the general public,especially the educated people, which has been fostered by aspurt of articles and analysis in our English language newspapers.But this is not the case among policy-makers. The people who arerunning the government appear to be somewhat frightened ofthe subject of climate change.They think it is too technical and it issomehow not relevant, or perhaps, beyond their comprehension.

What can be done is to conduct seminars and workshops andprepare user-friendly policy briefs to enable our ministers, seniorofficials and parliamentarians to understand that climate changeis about water security, food security, energy security, healthsecurity, livelihood and about protecting our people from morefrequent and more devastating disasters. I do not think this hashappened so far and there will be an increasing need for this.


Both mitigation and adaptation should be accepted as ournational priorities. Mitigation of course should be a greaterpriority for developed countries, because they need to drasticallyslash their greenhouse gas emissions which are, in the first place,responsible for creating the problem of climate change. Butdeveloping countries such as Pakistan should also acceptresponsibility to both mitigate as well as adapt. It is possible to doso for a number of reasons. The most important of these reasons isthe nexus between energy and mitigation. All developingcountries need additional quantities of energy for their industry,for their agriculture, for their transport sector, for betterfunctioning hospitals, schools and market places and for makingoffices and homes more comfortable to work in and to live in.

If developing countries are enabled to develop clean, renewablesources of energy, they will be doing both mitigation andadaptation. Mitigation in the sense that clean energy sources,such as wind, hydro and solar cause negligible amounts ofgreenhouse emissions compared to those resulting from the useof fossil fuels for producing electricity and other sources of energy.At the same time, renewable energy will boost the resilience of thedeveloping countries to cope with the negative impacts of

climate change, which is adaptation. Such policies and practicesare meant to protect people, communities, economies andecosystems from the negative effects of climate change. So, I donot think the distinction between mitigation and adaptation is assignificant, so as to make us prefer one over the other. In the caseof Pakistan especially, it is so.

Using fossil fuels has led to incredible pollution all over the world,especially in emerging economies and we need to learn fromthese examples. If places like Beijing and New Delhi had cleanersources of energy, they would not be afflicted by smog and haze asthey currently are. So developing countries should considermitigation and adaptation as two sides of the same coin. In thecoming years, adaptation will need to be of a higher prioritybecause of a range of natural disasters, such as hurricanes, storms,floods and heat waves, are becoming increasingly common andare directly hurting the public. You have to protect your peoplefrom the effects of climate change on a war footing. It is especiallyurgent to plan for coping with a reduction in fresh water resourcescaused by climate change.


Implementation of policies is the central challenge. We have acomprehensive framework policy called the National ClimateChange Policy approved in 2012, which is based on the report of atask force under the Planning Commission, which was set up in2008. I used the word framework, because it calls for policyinterventions for mitigation, for adaptation, for capacity buildingconcerning vulnerable sectors such as water, energy, agriculture,food, transport, coastal areas, and the public at large. There areabout 120 policy interventions which are mentioned in theframework. What is now needed is to develop national mitigationplans and adaptation plans. In fact, multiple action plans arerequired, for example, one on technology, another on financing,yet another on capacity building etc., particularly at the locallevels. So far that has not happened, and it is a serious gap in ourefforts and also in our bid to garner external financial,technological and capacity building assistance.

Meanwhile, and this is a very important point, Pakistan is doing a

say that again

“...if developing countries are enabled to

develop clean, renewable sources of

energy, they will be doing both mitigation

and adaptation.”

Interview

33

lot of things which can be brought under the rubric of climatechange. The Water and Power Development Authority has veryambitious plans for hydro power, represented by mega projectson the Indus. There are also efforts to develop renewable sourcesof energy, and to promote energy efficiency. These are beingviewed as energy-related activities, but fundamentally they areabout climate change. If you have cleaner, renewable energy,then you are helping mitigate climate change.

Hence, if you change your narrative and bring energy into theframework of climate change, you can convince the internationalcommunity of your seriousness about the issue and prove thatPakistan is willing to manage its climate change challenges. Thiswill greatly help in securing support from the windows that havealready been established in the framework of the UN ClimateChange Convention to help developing countries mitigate andadapt. These include, the Green Climate Fund which has alreadystarted disbursing, the Adaptation Fund, the TechnologyMechanism etc. Pakistan has to strengthen its institutionalmechanisms in order to receive the much needed doses of capital,technology and capacity building, which are desperately neededin this country.

The question of capacity in provinces and local communities,including districts, towns and villages, is fundamental. Agovernance revolution is what is urgently needed in this country.What you have in Pakistan is an increasingly dysfunctional systemof governance, and I do not speak of the “government” alone butof all the organs of the state. I sincerely hope that governanceundergoes a revolution and a new era can be ushered in toaddress all our challenges, including climate change.

Dr. Ghulam RasulDirector General,

Pakistan Meteorological Department


Awareness is increasing gradually at the public level because offrequent disasters in the form of floods, drought, tropical cyclones,heat waves, glacial lake outburst floods and heavy downpour in ashort span of time. Vision 2025 has also given due consideration inpolicy but the implementation process is rather slow.


Mitigation is of least priority because Pakistan has contributed analmost negligible amount of GHG emissions to the atmosphere.However, adaptation to changing climate must be emphasized."Too much water and too little water" is the basic challenge forPakistan that can be addressed through increased storage, asmost countries have done and are doing. Heavy monsoon rains inKhyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab generate devastating floodswhich destroy crops and infrastructure; therefore storage duringthe monsoon zone will reduce the onset of floods and droughtrisk, hence ensuring energy security.


Deforestation punished Pakistan; the country must now growforests to safeguard its future generations. At the governmentlevel, a mass transit system should be promoted and individualcars use be discouraged through legislation. Solid waste shouldbe used in power generation and making by-products instead ofits burial underground. Water must now be a charged utility, andlegislation on ground water use must come into force in waterdepletion zones. In glaciated zones, tree cutting must be bannedand gas provision for cooking and heating should be ensured.

Interview

34

Ambassador (Retd.) Shahid KamalFounder and Head of the Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD),COMSATS Institute of Information Technology


In Pakistan, the level of awareness regarding climate change andits impact is not adequate, especially in comparison to the globallevel of awareness. However, the good news is that there is a lot ofadvocacy work going on as demonstrated by the increasinglyactive role being played by NGOs, universities and media inspreading awareness regarding climate change and its impact.CCRD at COMSATS is one such example, as the institute wasestablished with the core objective to conduct research on issuesrelated to climate change.

Media has a responsibility to play an active role in spreadingawareness about climate change. Although print media can alsobe used, but radio can be a more effective tool, especially inreaching out to rural communities that get affected most severelyfrom variations in climate.

At the government level, the Ministry of Climate Change has alsoaccelerated its work in addressing climate change issues and isnow more actively involved in taking initiatives. The Ministryrequires more support, commitment and resources from policymakers to allow it to operate effectively. The threat to Pakistanfrom climate change will be more severe in the coming years andhence, policy makers should ensure that the commitment,preparation and resources commensurate with the scale of threatand vulnerability that Pakistan will face.

On a sub-national level, with the 18th Constitutional Amendment,the provincial authorities have been given greater authority andresponsibility in managing issues related to climate change andenvironment. There needs to be greater coordination betweenfederal and provincial level authorities. Although coordinationmechanisms are improving, but they need to be further improved,especially through regular consultations on climate change issues.Few provinces have already developed climate change units andthat is a commendable move.

The real work needs to be done at the district level, where the realimpact of climate change lies. Some good examples can be foundfrom South Asian and Latin American countries wherecommunities have been empowered through information andresources to build resilience against climate change issues. Forinstance, they have been informed on measures to take in order tomitigate effects of droughts and floods and varying patterns ofrainfall. Empowering communities through such initiatives at the

district level can be an effective tool for policy makers to betterprepare them against the adverse effects of climate change.

As Pakistan's governance structure is being devolved, it is alsoimportant to first spread awareness amongst local councils thatare being set up and then to link them to provincial plans in orderto develop a better coordinated system of implementingmeasures against climate change.


Currently, Pakistan is ranked very low on the global scale of GHGemitting countries. However, simultaneously, its population,transport sector and rate of urbanization is growing at a rapid pacecausing a huge negative impact on the quality of air in our country.So with respect to the question of mitigation alone, the climatechange debate will become increasingly important in the comingyears.

The level of pollution is growing in our cities. According to onereport by WHO and the World Bank, the level of pollution in ourmajor cities like Karachi, Rawalpindi and Peshawar is reachinglevels considered to be unhealthy in terms of air quality and itsgeneral impact on health. Air quality may not be a huge problemat the moment but it will become a major issue in the next 15 to 20years considering forecasted population growth rates and theconsequent high rate of urbanization that will follow. Therefore,climate change mitigation must become central to our policyframeworks.

Similarly, the transport sector and rapid construction of buildingsare also playing a major role in contributing to increasingly highlevels of pollution in the country and hence, must be considered inhigh priority by policy makers to mitigate climate change impact.

Hence, climate change mitigation and adaptation must beintegrated in urban planning by municipal authorities. They mustintegrate sustainability and the environmental aspect of buildingsduring construction and make green lands and/or parksmandatory in urban planning. Similarly with transport, policymakers must place checks on emissions. Even though it will be amajor challenge, but if the air quality becomes increasingly worse,it will have dire effects on health, especially of children, causingwide spread diseases like asthma.

Policy makers should take lessons from initiatives taken by Chinato aggressively address air pollution and the negative

Interview

35

say that again

“...climate change mitigation and

adaptation must be integrated in urban

planning by municipal authorities.”

consequences of heavy air pollution on health being faced byIndia. There are many worldwide lessons to be learnt and bestpractices to be followed and they should all be integrated in ourpolicy frameworks.

Legislations will also be required to address climate change issuesthrough the setting of targets. However, it must be ensured thatthe targets are not extremely ambitious to make themunachievable. They should be incremental so that we slowlyachieve the desired results. Zero emissions target in publictransport, checks on emissions of cars and making it mandatoryfor all cars to undergo emission testing after two years, are allgood examples for target setting to begin with.


In terms of implementation, there needs to be a betterunderstanding of the 18th Amendment and how it can be mademore effective by delegating responsibilities and resources.Second, our governance system needs to address the question ofintegrating local councils with provincial authorities. Theplanning and implementation of climate change policies can bemuch more effective if local councils get involved in theimplementation aspect of climate change activities.

The third aspect relates to the federal government and the broadguidelines it can give to provincial authorities about theinternational commitments that Pakistan has made and theinternational support mechanisms that are available for them togain benefit from. This will be useful for provincial authorities toformulate and successfully operationalize climate change policiesby helping them in understanding the kind of possibilities andopportunities that exist in the national and international sphere.

Even though the level of awareness regarding climate change isnot as widespread in Pakistan as it should be, the recent trendsshow that communities are increasingly becoming aware of thechanges in climate from their own personal experiences. To buildup on this awareness, initiatives need to be taken to informcommunities of the consequences of climate change and howthey can better prepare themselves to face the challenges. Forinstance, through changing crop patterns, building betterresilience in desserts, conserving water and reducing wastage ofwater in irrigation practices, many communities can mitigate thenegative impacts of climate change. However, to successfullyimplement such measures, provincial climate change and

environmental departments need to work more closely with localcouncils.

At the local level, community groups could be brought togetherby local councils with the support of provincial authorities. Thesecommunity groups could first be informed and then maderesponsible for spreading further awareness and implementingclimate change initiatives.

However, this process will need to be followed by a system thatallows resources to be trickled down to the community level.Although distribution of resources to the lowest level will be achallenge for provincial authorities, but it will deliver betterresults by empowering communities and making themresponsible for their own initiatives.

For implementation, capacity building is also necessary, not justin terms of resources but also by equipping local institutions andauthorities with basic technology. However, empoweringcommunities and local institutions with just basic know-how andtechnology can also be extremely effective and sufficient. Forknowledge on specific measures that can be taken to mitigate theimpact of climate change, we can learn from the experiences,projects and best practices of other countries while using onlybasic technology that is already available in our society.

To understand the change that is taking place due to climate andthen be able to adapt to it with the appropriate strategies andmobilization of people, will be critical in building the resiliencethat we need for the future. It is doable provided we start workingwith greater connectivity, greater communication and greatercooperation within the national level and also at the internationallevel. This is a global issue and a global challenge and this will alsobe a test for global solidarity for saving our beautiful planet andsaving the lives and livelihood of billions of people that have achance of a much better future.

Youth Voices

Is the youth aware of climate change issues?How can it contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Pakistan?

BALOCHISTAN

36

Hina Naseem

The educated youth is de�nitely aware of this phenomenathat has become a challenge for the world, and can play apositive role in raising awareness and exerting pressure onthe government to tackle the issue.

Abida Baloch

There is little awareness regarding climate change as far asthe youth is concerned. The situation needs to change; theyouth need to become more proactive in the cause ofclimate mitigation and urge the government to pay muchneeded attention to this otherwise sidelined issue.

Tanveer Ahmad

The situation in Balochistan has compelled the youth tomake themselves more aware of the issue of climatechange: with decreasing water table levels resulting in asigni�cant decrease in agricultural productivity, paucity ofrain and a rise in global warming, this region has severelybeen affected by climate change. The only solution to thislies in the government becoming more active andinitiating projects such as construction of dams, plantationdrives, prohibition on the chopping of trees etc.

Fareed Ahmad

The youth is somewhat aware of climate change. Globalwarming is resulting in rapid glacial melts that may causean imbalance of rain and dryness, resulting in �oods.Political youth representatives need to tackle this issue byexerting pressure on the government in initiatingmeasures to combat deforestation, air pollution and otherconsequences of climate change.

Youth VoicesSINDH

37


Sarfarz Ahmad Sheikh

Ali Hyder Shah

Ujala Ahmed

Recent events have emphatically demonstrated ourgrowing vulnerability to climate change. Our youth is notfully aware of this issue but will be in the next few years.Young people who are adept at spreading new habits andtechnologies are well placed to contribute to the �ghtagainst climate change. Moreover, their contributions areeven more signi�cant now, when climate change hasbecome an unavoidable reality for Pakistan and isbeginning to manifest itself through increasing intensity.

According to my grandfather, the 1960s saw timelyproduction and occurrence of rain, seasonal fruits andseasons. Now the situation has completely inverted withlesser rain, soaring temperatures and irregular seasonalfrequencies. Creating awareness is how the youth can help.Pollution needs to be curtailed. More plantation needs tobe initiated and vehicles emitting smoke need to beproperly monitored. Proper policies by the governmentshould be initiated in order to save trees, prohibit carbonemissions and restrict pollution practices of thecommercial industry.

Ata Rehman Zaki

A more de�ned role should be given to the youth toprevent the impact of climate change. It is essential toconduct major studies among youth regarding awarenessabout climate change as well as role of youth in combatingclimate change. While the climate change policy expressesthe commitment of the government of Pakistan to achieveclimate-resilient development, these priority actions willassist Pakistan in moving towards the development of animproved evidence base of the impacts of climate changethat the country is facing.

Most youth know about climate change issues, reasonsand causes, and can contribute through their physical andmoral efforts in mitigation and adaption. We must plant atree at homes and holy places, and at academic centers.Weshould save water and take measures to reducegreenhouse gas emissions.

Youth Voices


PUNJAB

38

Mahfooz ur Rehman

Human activities such as pollution through traffic, cuttingof trees for new projects and mills/plants/factories are thereal problem, resulting in an increase in greenhouse gases.Our youth is so energetic about new issues. If we givepresentations about the disadvantages of tree-cutting, forexample, then we can help mitigate climate change andprotect ourselves and our country from its eventualdestructible consequences.

Marva Anter

There is growing global consensus that climate change ishumankind's greatest threat in modern times and is likelyto have profound consequences for socioeconomicsectors such as health, food production, energyconsumption, security and natural resource management.

Majid Qureshi

Pakistan is very high on the vulnerability scale due toweather changes, changes in precipitation patterns,dependence on agriculture, limited capacity and resourceconstraint. Climate change can be mitigated by using newtechnologies and renewable energies, making olderequipment more energy efficient and changingmanagement practices or consumer behavior in Pakistan.

Sonia Ahmad

According to my limited research and knowledge, changesin weather patterns, seasonal variations and naturaldisasters are due to climate change. If Pakistan is unable toaddress this issue in a timely manner, there will certainly beconsequences.

Youth VoicesKHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

39


Abdul Mehmood

Climate change is an issue of global concern and needs tobe tackled in communion with leaders all over the world.With a rise in monsoon �ooding, increasing deforestationto make way for the construction of roads, and expandingheatwaves, Pakistan has severely been affected. We needto save our forests, clean our environment and constitutelaws for industries. A clean and green Pakistan is the onlysolution to this menace.

Saiqa Khan

Neither civil society, nor the government or any politicalparty is focusing on this issue. Pollution is on the rise inPakistan and unless the NGOs, social activists and thegovernment launch nationwide campaigns to combat thisissue, it will gradually eat away the environment.

Sonia Batool

Owing to a lack of political will on the issue, climate changecontinues to remain one of the most under-addressedissues, with the majority completely clueless to itsexistence. In such a scenario, the responsibility to informand educate relies on the shoulders of the youth. A clearpolicy needs to be created and implemented. Problems ofgarbage management, uncontrolled traffic, air pollutionfrom industries and excessive use of plastic shopping bagsare examples of a few issues that require immediateattention.The change needs to begin from within and thenextended towards families and communities.

Sajid Hasan

There is no widespread awareness regarding climatechange in Pakistan. Whilst national media convenientlyfocuses on issues of extremism and celebrities, it fails to dojustice to the much needed attention that climate changerequires. The impact is not just limited to land, in fact, evenaquatic life is being affected. Extensive use of chemicalsneeds to be abolished, old vehicles should be banned frombeing run on the streets and proper environmental laws forfactories and vehicles need to be implemented.


PAKISTAN

PAKISTAN DEVELOPMENT ADVOCATE 4

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