Page 1 January, 2006 Introduction of WiMAX - Looking for business opportunity- Ian Yeon Strategic...

January, 2006

Introduction of WiMAX- Looking for business opportunity-

Ian Yeon Strategic Planning

Copyright © 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.

Value chain and players2.

Market Status and Forecast3.

WiMAX Description1.

Introduction of WiMAX – Looking for business opportunity

What is WiMAX and its timeline?

What strategic dilemma are vertically

integrated carriers facing?

Issues4.

What are the structural and organizational

consequences?

Summary5.

What is challenging the materialization of

WiMAX?

What action points can be derived?

Content

Copyright © 2006 Ian Yeon All Rights Reserved.Page 4

IEEE 802.16 Broadband Wireless Access - Standard and Standardization

1. WiMAX Description1.1 WiMAX Outline

802.16.2-REVa

MAC

PHY

Conformance

Coexistance

SOFDMA2048 / 1024 / 512 /128

802.16-2004(802.16REVd)

802.16aSCa

OFDM-256OFDMA-2048

802.16-2001TDMA

FDD/TDD

Single Carrier

802.16c

System Profiles

Conf.-01: PICS ProFo.

802.16.2-2001Coexistance

Conf.-02: Test Suites

Conf.-03: Radio Tests

802.16eMobility

Enhance-ments

(scalability)

NetMan802.16f: MIB for 802.16-2004

802.16g: Mgmt. Plane Procedures and Services

2 to 6 GHz < 11 GHz 10 - 66 GHz

NLOS (Mobile) NLOS (Fixed) LOS (Fixed)

15 Mbps < 75 Mbps < 134 Mbps

1.75 to 20 MHz 1.75 to 20 MHz 20 / 25 / 28 MHz


Comparing 802.16e with other Technologies


WiMAX

IEEE 802.16d+e

(standard)

Flarion Flash-OFDM

3GPP

WCDMA/HSDPA

3GPP

TD-SCDMA- LCR

3GPP

TDD HCR

(PS Domain only)

TechnologyOFDM, FDD or

TDD TDMA / OFDMA

OFDM, FDD

OFDMA

CDM, FDD

CDMA

CDM, TDD

TD-SCDMA

CDM, TDD

TD-CDMA

EnvironmentFixed / nomadic

accessCellular Cellular Cellular Cellular

Mobility Support

Limited, with

802.16e: < 120 km/h

Global

< 250 km/h

Global

< 250 km/h

Global

< 120 km/h

Global

< 120 km/h

Frequency spectrum

Licensed & exempt < 6 GHz NLOS

(2.5, 3.5, 5.8 GHz)

Licensed band < 3,5 GHz

Licensed band ~ 2 GHz



Peak aggregate

Cell throughput

~ 17-70 Mbps DL @ 5-20 MHz (bandwidth scalable)

3 Mbps DL800 kbps UL@ 1,25 MHz

~ 11 Mbps DL

~ 1.5 Mbps UL@ 5 MHz

~ 2 Mbps DL

@ 1.6 MHz (with 8PSK)

~ 3.4 Mbps DL

@ 5 MHz


WiMAX Positioning re. Alternate Technologies


WiFi

012345

Spectral eff iciency

Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach

N.of simultaneoussubs/cell

Spectrum w idth

WiMAX

012345


Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach


Spectrum w idth

HSDPA

012345


Global cost

CPE cost

Mobility

Security

Reach


Spectrum w idth

cc

Data Broadband access Long reach Robust High power Nomadic

Voice access + enhanced data Full mobility Low power

LAN Low cost Limited coverage Low security Lacks media access control (MAC)

Note: Comparative ranking with other technologies in performance per cell. Global cost per end user including spectrum fee.


Technology is maturing slowly but substantially

1. WiMAX Description1.2 WiMAX Forum 802.16e Expected Certification Timeline

First profile selections approved by WF

802.16E Standard Completed and approved

Silicon Sampling

Labs open for Certification testing

Systems Vendors Begin Certification Testing

Portable/Mobile Carrier Trials

Portable/Mobile Carrier Commercial Trials

Portable/Mobile Commercial Networks Deployed

Q4’05

Q4’05

Q2’06

Q3’06

Q4’06

Q1’07

Q2’07

Q3’07

Source: WiMAX Forum


Technology is maturing slowly but substantially

1. WiMAX Description1.2 Wimax Forum 802.16e Expected Certification Timeline

Indoor/Outdoor modems Residential Gateways

OFDM-256802.16-2004, 802.16e

Indoor / Outdoor DSL like service Service limited to installed area Device authentication and authorization only VoIP application supported

Laptops

User authentication Stationary or limited mobility Break-before-make BS handovers QoS degradation during handovers (no VoIP) Multi-operator roaming Interworking w/o seamless handovers VoIP application

Scalable OFDMA802.16e

Portable Indoor/Outdoor modems

DSL like service from different ‘points of attachment’ Stationary usage: no BS handovers User Authentication Multi-operator roaming

LaptopsPDAs

Optimized Make-before-break handovers(latency, QoS, data loss) Interworking w/ seamless handovers (session continuity) Optimized low-power operation VoIP service, IMS

Fixed Access Nomadicity Portability Full Mobility


Contents

Value Chain and Players2.

2.1 Value Chain2.2 Players


2. Value Chain and Players 2.1 Value Chain

an innovation and differentiation strategy for the service provisioning part of the value chain.

Uniqueness perceived by the customer

Service innovation & differentiation (brand, sales, products, customer care)

a cost leadership strategy for the network specific part of the value chain

Low cost position

Overall Cost Leadership (Efficient scale facilities, cost reduction, cost control)

Communication Applications

Customer Centric Processes

Content & Applications

Device and CRM

Operating System

Network CentricProcesses

Platform Strategy

Cost Leadership

Service Strategy

DifferentiationService Layer

Physical andTransport Layer

Control Layer

Network Layer

Net

wo

rk O

per

atio

ns

Middleware

Sales Layer

Ser

vice

Pro

vis

ion

ing

Transport

Access

Operators have to concentrate both on:

The big integrated network operators today have to focus on cost leadership and differentiation strategies at the same time.


Telcos will come under pressure by new service providers and the backward and forward integration of manufacturers and Content&Application Providers.

Content / ApplicationPlatforms & Provider

BSS / OSS – Supplier,IT-Service Provider

Telco Supplier

Operator / Carrier

Media Companys

Operator / Carrier

Device Manufacturer

Legend: future Migration Components / Resources

Bu

sin

ess

La

yer

– V

alu

e C

hai

n

Build Deliver

CRM / Marketing Companies

AccessNetworks

TransportNetworks

Basic Applications

Customer Care / Billing

Value-added Services

Content

Devices

CRM / PoS-Management

SK Telecom launches full scale mobile ASP Business (NATE ASP), 2002.

Cisco VoIP - DevicesCisco VoIP - Devices

Austrian GSMOperator outsources Network operations to

Market Entry of brandCompany as MVNO in Sweden



We expect that Carriers will finally face competition on three different levels and only focused players on each level will be successful.

Operator / Carrier

Media Companies

BSS / OSS – Supplier,IT-Service Provider

SalesCo

NetCo

ServCo

Telco SupplierBu

sin

ess

La

yer

– V

alu

e C

hai

n

AccessNetworks

TransportNetworks

Basic Applications

Customer Care / Billing

Value-added Services

Content

Devices

CRM / PoS-Management

Content / ApplicationPlatforms & Provider

Operator / Carrier

Device Manufacturer

Components / Resources

Build Deliver

CRM / Marketing Companies



Chip makers & System vendors

2. Value Chain and Players 2.2 Vendors

Vendor Product Carrier Freq. (GHz)

Bandwidth (MHz)

ModulationOTA

Throughput Features Interface

Airspan PrimeMax 3.5, 5.8 7/10/14/20 OFDM 256 < 50 MbpsE1 + IP

(Backhaul)100bT/E1/T1

HiperMax 3.5/2.5 1.75/3/5/7/10OFDM256/

SOFDMOpt. for 802.16e

AAS/MIMO/Full

QoS10/100bT

Alvarion BreezeMax3.5, 2.3, 2.5-

2.71.75/3.5 OFDM 256 10 Mbps Full QoS

10/100bT, RJ11 (CPE)

ApertoPacketwave

10002.5, 3.5, 5.3,

5.82-6 MHz SC TDMA 20 Full QoS 100bT

Nex-G Horizon 5.8 10 OFDM 256 50 < 16 sector 1000bT

Redline RedMax 3.4-3.8/5.4-5.8 3.5, 5, 7, 10 OFDM 25650@10 MHz

chanFull

QoS/BCMCT1/100bT

Wavesat Evolutive WiMAX

3.5, 5.81.75, 3.5,

7, 10OFDM 256 37.5 Mbps

Best effort QoS

NA

Rosedale System on a Chip: 802.16-2004 MAC + OFDM PHY + Integrated 10/100 MAC + Inline security processing + TDM controller I/F

April 18, 2005 – Intel announced the first WiMAX product

Source: Maravedis


Chip makers 1/2


Vendor PHY MAC RF IF & IO Processor Options Foundry

Beecem OFDMA OFDMA Confidential Confidential confidential NA Confidential

Cygnus Multimedia

PHY & MAC in the chipset,

OFDM/OFDMA

PHY & MAC in the chipset

NA Both0.13 micro

transitioning to 0.09

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti, FEC:required variants at a minimum,

Encryption; DES, 3DES, AES

Confidential

FujitsuPHY & MAC in the chipset by

Fujitsu

PHY & MAC in the chipset by

FujitsuPartner Both

ARM9 and another

undisclosed

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti,

FEC(RS,Turbo,TPC…), Encryption; DES, 3DES, AES

Fujitsu foundry in

Japan

IntelPHY & MAC in

the chipsetPHY & MAC in

the chipsetPartner Both NA

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti NOT Disclosed,

FEC(RS,Turbo,TPC…) NOT Disclosed,

Encryption; same as 802.11

NA

PicochipOFDM256(16d)

OFDMA1024(Wibro), Sofdma(16e)

Lower MAC integrated. Partners

(Airspan and others) for upper

MAC

Partner Both

Upper MACX Supported on

ARM, PowerPC, and intel IXP2800

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti(stc) optional,

Advanced FEC ,RS+CC, scope for AAS, lower MAC,

integrated

0.13 (moving to 0.09) TSMC

Source: Maravedis

Samsung Ventures America invested 20M US$ in December 2005


Chip makers 2/2


Vendor PHY MAC RF IF & IO Processor Options Foundry

Runcom

PHY & MAC mainly (RF as a

service) 2KOFDMA

solution

PHY & MAC mainly (RF as a service)

2KOFDMA solutionPartner Both

MIPS0.18 micron

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti,

FEC(RS,Turbo,TPC…), Encryption; DES

UMC (Taiwan)

SequansFixed 802.16-2004 OFDM

Mobile; SOFDMA

Fixed 802.16-2004 OFDM Mobile;

SOFDMANA Both ARM9

64 QAM, Subchannel. Alamouti, RS-CC

Encryption; DES, AESConfidential

SI-Wave PHY right now MAC later in 2005 NA NA Confidential NA Confidential

Telecis

SoC ASICS and refe. Designs, Fixed 802.16-2004 OFDM-

TCW1620

SoC ASICS and ref. Designs, Fixed 802.16-2004

OFDM-TCW1620

NA Both Confidential64 QAM, Subchannel.

Alamouti, FEC, AES, Smart Antennas built-in

Confidential

Wavesat

802.16-2004 OFDM256FFT-

Mobile; OFDM or OFDMA

Partners (Zarlink)

Agere (5.8 GHz)/

RF Magic (3.5GHz)

Both ARM964 QAM, Subchannel.

Alamouti, FEC, AES, Smart Antennas built-in

Atmel

Zarlink TDM over WiMAX (Circuit Emulation Service over Processor)

Source: MaravedisMulti Million $ partnership with SKT to develop WiBro SoC in January 2006

Wavesat, Delta Networks (Taiwan) develop low cost WiMAX equipment


System vendors Infrastructure Suppliers


Adaptix Air Broadband ( 삼성과 시스코 출신들이 만든 회사 ) Airspan Networks Alvarion Ltd Aperto Arracomm Inc Arris Axxcelera (formerly, Adaptive Broadband) Cambridge Broadband Flarion (acquired by Qualcomm) Infininet Wireless IP Wireless L3 Communications Navini Networks Nextnet Wireless Next-G Systems Proxim Corporation Redline Communications Solectek Soma Networks SR Telecom Trango Broadband Vcom Inc Vyyo Waverider Wi-LAN

Alcatel Mobile Group Marconi Motorola Canopy Nortel Networks/LG Samsung Siemens Mobile Group ZTE-ZiMax


Contents

Market Status and Forecast3.

3.1 WiMAX WW Subscribers by Region3.2 Whose doing what and where3.3 WiMAX Regulations in Asia


3. Market Status and Forecast3.1 WiMAX WW Subscribers by Region

Asia Pacific region fastest growth with Europe next

Source: ABI Research, Nov 2004

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2006 2007 2008 2009

Asia Pacific North America Latin America Europe Rest of World

India and China present the largest global opportunity for growth.

Developed regions such as Korea and Japan are interested in prospects for mobile WiMAX.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cumulative Rural K Subs Cumulative Developing K Subs

Cumulative Nomadic K Subs

Limited early roll-out expected for fixed BB access Urban and suburban expected to migrate to nomadic Nomadic market driven by the availability of WiMAX

capable laptop, PDA, or Handheld device Source: Alcatel, Sep 2005


3. Market Status and Forecast 3.1 WiMAX WW Subscribers by Region

Asia Pacific region fastest growth with Europe next

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Asia Pacific

MEA

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America

0

600

1,200

1,800

2,400

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Asia Pacific

MEA

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

Latin America

North America

mill

. Eu

ro

WiMAX equipment incl. CPE (per region)

Optimistic Case

(pure nomadic and mixed

BWA/nomadic)

Note: no PCMCIA card is included

WiMAX equipment incl. CPE (per region)

Target Case



Nomadic market driven by the availability of WiMAX capable handheld device

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fixed W Nomadic

Nomadic Market driven at start by

Availability of WiMAX capable laptop and PDA

Significant growth expected

Limited early roll_out expected for Fixed Broadband Wireless

Limited growth perspectives

WiMAX Market in M€

Source: Alcatel, Sep 2005



Vendor shipment in 2004

Wireless Infrastructure Players in the World

8%

26%

3%31%

5%

9%

9%5% 4%

Airspan

Alvarion

Redline

Others

Proxim

Motorola

IP Wireless

SR Telecom

Aperto

Source: Maravedis, March 2005


3. Market Status and Forecast 3.2 Whose doing what and where

Current Trials and Deployments

NexGenTel, Norway (October 2005)

Field trials in Oslo and Bergen Alcatel will supply WiMax end-to-end solution 3.5 MHz frequency, Up to 20 km

Taiwan Government (October 2005)

Pact with Intel

Many operators, Italy (October 2005)

11 Pilot systems trials in Milan, Rome, Arezzo, Piedmont, Val d’Aosta, Sardinia, Abruzzo, Sicily and Parma Alvarion supplied BreezeMax 3500

T-Com, Germany (September 2005)

T-Com, fixed line unit of DT, field trial Alvarion supplied BreezeMax 3500 DSL replacement

Telabria, PIPEX, UK (September 2005)

Telabria launched up-to 10Mbps wireless broadband service “Skylink” PIPEX Communication launched 802.16-2004 WiMax service Airspan supplied PIPEX with last mile solution


Contents

Issues4

4.1 Handover4.2 Applications


4. Issues4.1 Handover

WiMAX standard include ‘make-before-break’ handover technology

AP 802.y

AP 802.x

AP 802.x

AP 802.x

AP 802.y

Mobile Device

802.x

L3 network

802.y

AR AR AR

Potential Links

One or more802 interfaces



Another IEEE standard is gaining momentum; 802.21 MIH (Media Independent Handover)

Upper Layers (L3 and above)

MIH Function

Lower Layers (L2 and below)

SIP MIPv4 MIPv6 HIP …

802.3 802.11 802.16 3GPP 3GPP2

MIH Events

MIH Commands

Information

Service

Link Events

Link Commands

Information

Service



Another IEEE standard is gaining momentum; 802.21 MIH Architecture for 802.16

Layer 3 or higherMobility Protcol(L3MP)

PLME

MSME

Convergence SublayerManagement Entity

(CSME)

MAC Security Sublayer

Convergence Sublayer (CS)

Media Independent Handover Layer (MIH) MIH Event Service

MIH information Service

MIH MAC SAP CS SAP

MAC Common Part Sublayer

PHY

MIH CSME SAP

MAC SAP

PHY SAP MLME PLME SAP

Security Mgmt

PL

ME

_SA

PM

LM

E_

SA

PC

SM

E_

SA

PM

IHM

E_

SA

P

802.21 Scope MIH_L3_SAP

L2.5

SME

or

NMS


What will be the Killer Application?

4. Issues4.2 Applications

Interactive Gaming

VoIP

Video Phone

Music/Speech

Video Clips

Movies Streaming

Instant Messaging

Web Browsing

Email (w/ attachment)

Bulk Data, Movie D/L

Peer-to-Peer

50 – 85 kbps

4-64 kbps

32-384 kbps

5-128 kbps

20-384 kbps

> 2 Mbps

< 250 byte messages

> 500 kbps

> 500 kbps

> 1 Mbps

> 500 kbps

Class Description Real Time Application Type Bandwidth

YesInteractive Gaming

YesVoIP, Video Conference

YesStreaming Media

NoInformation Technology

NoMedia Content D/L

(Store and Forward)


Consequent

4. Issues4.4 Applications

INFOR-

MATION

NEWS

General Headlines Financial & Business Politics Tabloids Culture &

Entertainment Sports Lottery

BANKING & FINAN-CIAL SERVICES

Stock indexes Stock prices Metal prices Stock alert Currency rates Interest rates Account balance Credit/debit balance Cheque balance Money transfers Bill payments Automatic call Account status flash Stock purchase Financial products

purchase

LOCAL SERVICES (CITY GUIDE)

Taxi Restaurants Cinema Theatres Concerts Exhibitions Night Clubs Emergency services Pharmacies Household

assistance Weather Time Directory services ATM Locator

BUY & SELL

Classifieds Cars Properties Jobs

Auctions Shopping

Small daily items

Specific promotions

Tickets

TRAVEL

Traffic (traffic jams, radar, control,…)

Public transportation Navigation services Train schedules Flight schedules Hotels Holiday packages

SpecialInterest

Mobile telephones Internet sites and

services Computers and

hardware Automobile

SMS

Send/receive SMS messages SMS to postcard

E-MAIL

Send/receive e-mails E-mail to voice (IVR)

FAX

Send/receive fax Special features (delivery and receipt

report, storage for later delivery)

ORGANIZERS

To do lists Calendar Address book Agenda

PERSONAL ASSISTANT

Call management Correspondence management Voice to SMS, E-mail and fax Translation services

TOOLS

Calculator Dictionary Translator Currency converter

MISCELLANEOUS

Activating domesticappliances

Paying at vending machines Identity verification

MUSIC

Ringtones Short clips

(e.g. MP3)

TV

Program-me schedules

Highlights

LIFESTYLE

Gastronomy Hobbies Fashion Parties

FUN

Jokes Sayings Dream

analysis

CHATS

Topic specific

Private

PICTURES

Icons Logos Photos Postcards

GAMES

Puzzles Quizzes “Tamagotchi” Games Gambling/Betting

ASTROLO-GY

Horoscopes Astrolove Biorhythm Specific

Horoscopes

DATING

Chats Dating

services

COMMU-

NICATION

PRODUC-

TIVITY

ENTER-

TAINTMENT

Reminders

FAMILY

BULLETIN BOARDS

Groups with common interest

Messages, News, etc

Family VPN Synchronised


Be prepared for handover issues

Problems like SBC will happen again

WiMAX QoS is almost like that of DOCSIS

In 2007, WiMAX will emerge the main issue of FMC

WiMAX and HSDPA will be adopted in IMS network

Implications for Xener

Implications

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