Packaged Water in the EU - Key Trends · Poland, Romania and Hungary have shown the highest growth...
Transcript of Packaged Water in the EU - Key Trends · Poland, Romania and Hungary have shown the highest growth...
Kevin Baker
12th June 2013
1
Packaged Water in the EU - Key Trends
Agenda
• Global and European Trends
• Market Roundup
• Strategic Challenges for Developed Water Markets
2
3
Global & EU
Packaged Water
Market Trends
Global Packaged Water continues to grow
4
Global Packaged Water Volume 2002-2012, ML
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Volume
Growth rate
With Growth picking up over past 2 years
In the EU*, this growth has plateaued
5 * EU as defined by EFBW as 24 markets in scope
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Volume
Growth rate
EU Packaged Water Volume 2002-2012, ML
However Water has out-performed the rest of Soft
6 * EU as defined by EFBW as 24 markets in scope
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU Packaged Water Growth vs. Other Soft 2002-2012, ML Growth Rate Comparison EU Markets
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
-0.1%
-1.3%
-1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
CAGR 07-12
CAGR 09-12
YOY 11-12
Packaged Water Other Soft
7 * EU as defined by EFBW as 24 markets in scope
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EU Packaged Water Growth vs. Other Soft 2002-2012, ML
0.2%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
-0.1%
-1.3%
-1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0%
CAGR 07-12
CAGR 09-12
YOY 11-12
Packaged Water Other Soft
Growth Rate Comparison EU Markets
However Water has out-performed the rest of Soft
Packaged Water also has a much higher share of soft drink
consumption in the EU than the rest of the world
Packaged Water Share of Soft, EU Markets
Packaged
Water Litres
per Capita 16 111 87 30 44 41 25 24
44% 44% 44%
56% 56% 56%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012
Other Soft
Packaged Water
26% 27% 28%
74% 73% 72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012
Rest of
World
Asia West
Europe North
America Latin
America East
Europe MENA Africa Australasia
Decreasing Regional Volume
8
In the EU Markets Still water has a 58% share
9
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012
Low
Regular
Still
Packaged Water Segmentation EU, ML
-1.3% -1.3% -0.5%
0.5% 0.9% 1.1%
CAGR 07-12 CAGR 09-12 YOY 11-12
1.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Sp
ark
ling
With sparkling suffering poor performance relative to still
10
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012
Low
Regular
Still
Packaged Water Segmentation EU, ML
-1.3% -1.3% -0.5%
0.5% 0.9% 1.1%
CAGR 07-12 CAGR 09-12 YOY 11-12
1.4% 1.1% 0.1%
Sp
ark
ling
The top 5 markets in the EU make up 78% of Packaged Water
Volume
11
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Germany Italy France Spain Poland Other
Top 5 Volume Water Markets, EU, ML
78%
They have a mixed performance compared to total EFBW
markets, with Poland showing the strongest growth
12
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
EFBW Markets
France
Germany
Italy
Poland
Spain
Growth Rates of Top 5 Markets, Indexed to 2007
Poland, Romania and Hungary have shown the highest
growth
13
Germany
Italy France
Spain
Poland
United Kingdom
Romania
Belgium
Portugal
Greece
Austria
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Netherlands
Sweden
Republic of Ireland
Latvia
Bulgaria Slovak Republic
Hungary
Denmark
Slovenia
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Gro
wth
Ra
te 0
7-1
2
Litres per Capita
Romania and Poland have relatively low litres per capita, suggesting potential for
further positive growth
Overview of Packaged Water growth and Consumption in EU Markets
* Bubble size = volume Packaged Water 2012
And with the addition of Bulgaria are expected to continue
to out-pace the growth of the rest of soft drinks
14
Forecast growth of Packaged Water and other categories in EU Markets 2013-2018
* Bubble size = volume forecast Packaged Water 2018
Economic instability in some Southern European markets…
Central Athens
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Y on Y % change in GDP
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Greece
Spain
Unemployment rate
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2008 2009 2010 2011
Greece Spain Greece YOY Spain YOY
Y on Y % change in NARTD Consumption
15
…..is driving producers to look at value options from developing
markets
Unilever see “return to poverty” in Europe:
“If a consumer in Spain only spends €17 when they go shopping, then I’m not
going to be able to sell them washing powder for half of their budget”
In Spain, the company sells Surf
detergent in packages for as few
as five washes
“In Indonesia, we sell individual packs of shampoo for 2 or 3 cents and still
make decent money. We know how to do that, but in Europe we have
forgotten in the years before the crisis”
Jan Zijderveld, Head of Unilever’s European business
16
Across EU markets price per litre packaged water is
declining relative to other soft categories
17
Average Price Per Litre (EUR)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PPL PW
PPL Other Soft
Eastern EU markets have shown the best price per litre
growth, with the UK and Germany declining
18
Packaged Water Price per litre % Change per Market 2007- 2012
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2007 PPL 2012 PPL
% C
ha
ng
e
Pri
ce
Pe
r L
itre
(E
UR
)
19
Market
Roundup
Austria
Stable Consumption with sharp increase
in on-premise prices
Trend to lower carbonation and still water
Availability of free tap water in
restaurants could impact future growth
Growth 2011/12
+ 1.9%
Per Capita
85.3
Belgium
Flat growth in a mature market with
relatively little innovation
Local government promoting benefits of
tap water
Sparkling water growing at expense of
Still
Growth 2011/12
- 0.2%
Per Capita
123.5
Bulgaria
Leading brand volumes boosted by
marketing investment
Competitor advertising and government
policy put pressure on mineral water
Discount brands also expected to
continue to grow volume and share
Growth 2011/12
+ 2.9%
Per Capita
66.3
Czech Republic
Water market continues to be impacted
by low consumer confidence
Private Label table waters suffer the
sharpest setback as consumers switch to
tap water
Consumer switch to lower carbonation
products
Growth 2011/12
- 9.4%
Per Capita
50.1
Denmark
Poor weather and tax on flavoured water
hits volumes
Self-Carbonation machines could hurt
sparkling segment which also has a poor
image
Demise of convenience channel will
impact still water growth
Growth 2011/12
- 4.4%
Per Capita
22.2
Estonia
Water sales declined hit by inflation and
poor weather
Decline expected to be halted in 2013,
but price sensitivity and improving image
of tap water will keep any increase low
Sparkling volumes growing as
substitution by tap water not an issue
Growth 2011/12
- 3.5%
Per Capita
30.8
Finland
Poor summer weather impacted sales, with
the decline being magnified by exceptionally
good performance in the previous year
Packaged Water viewed as a luxury and
therefore very dependent on the economy
Spring water accounts for nearly 90% of the
market
Growth 2011/12
- 5.6%
Per Capita
17.2
France
Low pricing helped boost water sales
Category also benefited from concerns over
health risks of sweetened drinks and efforts
by water producers to negate the
environmental impact of packaged water
Still water accounts for 80% of the market
and continues to grow fastest
Growth 2011/12
+1.7%
Per Capita
113.8
Germany
Poor summer weather saw virtually no
growth in a very mature market
Mineral water accounts for 98% of the
market
Trend away from medicinal water
(Heilwasser) and from higher to lower
carbonation
Growth 2011/12
- 0.1%
Per Capita
171.1
Greece
Market hit by rising unemployment, salary
and pension cuts, and tax increases
Category expected to return to low growth
when the economy recovers
Horeca particularly hit as consumers spend
more time at home
Growth 2011/12
- 9.0%
Per Capita
98.2
Hungary
A long hot summer boosted consumption
which is already high
The category benefits from relatively low
prices
Consumers don’t tend to differentiate
between Mineral and Spring water
Growth 2011/12
+ 4.7%
Per Capita
117.8
Italy
Growth boosted by hot summer, but limited
by poor Autumn weather
Private Label volumes grow whilst on-
premise consumption has declined
Category faces competition from initiatives to
promote tap water
Growth 2011/12
+ 1.2%
Per Capita
180.5
Ireland
The water category recovered in 2012
despite poor weather and the economy,
partially driven by strong promotional activity
The carbonated segment outperformed the
overall market
Spring water is most popular source for both
the still and sparkling segments
Growth 2011/12
+ 0.5%
Per Capita
27.0
Latvia
Category benefits from perception as a
healthy alternative to other soft drinks
The launch of publicly funded “Riga Water”
will impact the category performance
Mineral water growing at expense of Spring
and Table water
Growth 2011/12
+ 2.0%
Per Capita
47.6
Lithuania
Main drivers behind the fall in consumption were
poor summer weather, a declining population,
and a large increase in tap water consumption
Consumers switch to lower carbonation
products which are perceived as healthier
Spring water volumes are very low and almost
entirely comprised of imported brands
Growth 2011/12
- 2.0%
Per Capita
36.8
Netherlands
Economic situation has seen consumers increasingly
turn to tap water, especially in On-Premise
Carbonated water volumes expected to remain stable
whilst still water declines
The market is almost entirely comprised of mineral
water although consumers don’t tend to differentiate,
basing purchase decisions mainly on price
Growth 2011/12
- 0.8%
Per Capita
21.2
Poland
Good summer reversed decline of 2011 (which
was a poor summer in Poland)
Still and low carbonation grow at expense of
carbonated brands
Growing awareness of positive impact of water
on health
Growth 2011/12
+ 5.4%
Per Capita
81.5
Portugal
Reduced purchasing power combined with a
big increase in VAT led to a fall in consumption
Multipacks have proliferated to offer better
value
Sparkling water expected to remain a niche
Spring water is taking some share from mineral
water
Growth 2011/12
- 6.4%
Per Capita
113.3
Romania
Good summer weather and packaging upsizing
led to a solid performance for the category
The share of sparkling water is being eroded
by still water
The abundance of mineral water sources
means that this category continues to
dominate
Growth 2011/12
+ 3.4%
Per Capita
69.5
Slovakia
Packaged Water was one of the few categories
to experience growth driven by a hot summer,
heath concerns and affordability
Growth driven by Private Labels which grew by
13% while branded products declined by 1%
Traditional sparkling water is slowly giving way
to still water
Growth 2011/12
+ 1.4%
Per Capita
67.1
Slovenia
Water volumes grew despite the unfavourable
economic climate helped by the hot summer
Both still and sparkling grew, with still water
experiencing slightly higher growth
Low priced imports are expected to drive
consumption, especially in discounters
Growth 2011/12
+ 3.5%
Per Capita
57.7
Spain
The category contracted by almost 1% due to
an increase in VAT and government austerity
measures
Consumption benefitted from hot weather and
drought in many parts of the country
Shift from on-premise to off-premise
consumption
Growth 2011/12
- 0.8%
Per Capita
116.9
Sweden
Home carbonation (Sodastream) remains an
issue with over a million machines present in
the market
High quality tap water remains a barrier to still
water development with “on the go”
consumption being the only real opportunity
Growth 2011/12
+ 0.4%
Per Capita
24.2
UK
The London Olympics and Diamond Jubilee
celebrations helped drive consumption despite
poor weather
Sparkling water is growing faster than still, but
from a smaller base
Private Label continues to grow although the
major brands were the biggest winners
Growth 2011/12
+ 2.7%
Per Capita
26.0
44
Strategic
Challenges for
Developed Water
Markets
Many water brands are competing on price – creating a
commoditised product
45
Companies are looking for distinct Value Added
positionings to drive growth and value
46
As well as added functional benefits and blurring with other
categories
Is this part of water’s competitive set?
47
Lots of water brands are also talking about sustainability
Sustainable
Messaging
Sustainable
Packaging
Plant Based Bottles
San Pellegrino’s
elementary-school
education initiative in
Italy
Less Plastic
48
Addressing these strategic challenges is the key to
maintaining growth in developed water markets of the EU
Just drink tap
water
Sustainability
agenda
Commoditised
water Value added water
Bottled water Competing with
other categories
49
Any Questions?
50