PACE - Finance Presentation

Economic and Market Outlook

October 2013

Niladri “Neel” MukherjeeSenior Investment StrategistInvestment Management & Guidance (IMG)

2FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

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This material was prepared by the Investment Management & Guidance Group (IMG) and is not a publication of BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. The views expressed are those of IMG only and are subject to change. This information should not be construed as investment advice. It is presented for information purposes only and is not intended to be either a specific offer by any Merrill Lynch entity to sell or provide, or a specific invitation for a consumer to apply for, any particular retail financial product or service that may be available.

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Macroeconomic themes 2013 and beyond: normalcy returns

• Slowly, return to the Fundamentals

• Global growth will be slow, but steady

• Central Banks around the world continue easing but becoming wary of excesses

• Inflation risks remain subdued for now


Global growth likely modest in 2013 reaccelerating in 2014; eurozone still pressured but emerging markets to rebound …

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of September 10, 2013.


Global manufacturing PMIs have started to rebound, led by developed markets; trend looks set to continue in 2H 2013…

Source: Markit, Haver Analytics, BofA ML Global Research and ML Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of Aug-2013.


Central bank liquidity remains accommodative for now …

Source: Bloomberg and Merrill Lynch IMG. Data as of 1/31/2013.

The financial

crisis hits


Peaking of The Liquidity Era Means Volatility and Opportunities

USQE tapering will be slow and gradual

CHINAReforms for a higher quality growth

Policy

JAPANVery accommodative monetary policy

EUROPEVigilant with ‘unlimited’ bond buying program

Implications

• Higher interest rates

• Higher volatility in rates

and equity markets

• US dollar bullish

• Risk of a policy mistake


Global CPI Inflation will remain low at a global level

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Haver Analytics

Global CPI inflation has eased this year (%yoy)


Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013, Core Logic

U.S. housing recovery is significant because of multiplier effects …

Home prices have appreciated but are starting to moderate a bit


Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013, Census Bureau

U.S. housing recovery is significant because of multiplier effects …

Housing starts and new home sales recovery are still in the early innings(thousands of homes)


Source: (Top left) Bureau of Labor Statistics, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research – “A speed bump” by Michelle Meyer 8/19/2013. (Top Right) Census Bureau, Haver Analytics, IMG. (Bottom Right) Autodata, Haver Analytics, IMG

Household formation and consumer confidence is critical …

Employment-to-population ratio for 24-35 year olds

Retail Sales Stabilize (YoY%) Despite Higher Payroll Taxes

Motor vehicle sales improving


ENERGY COSTS AS % OF TOTAL OPERATING COSTS (2010)

US energy independence is a transformative theme …

1980

1981

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1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

15171921232527293133

100

150

200

250

300

350Oil (billion barrels) Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)

MexicoNorway

UKRussia

IndiaColumbiaBiofuelsCanada

BrazilUnited States

-1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20164.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

23.0

24.0

Total US Oil Supplies Total US Oil Demand

Sup

ply

(bill

ions

of B

arre

ls)

Dem

and

(bill

ions

of b

arre

ls)…While U.S. demand is expected

to decline by 3%

Advancement in technology has boosted US energy production over the past 5 years

TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT BOOSTS US PROVED RESERVESUS TO SUPPLY A LARGE PORTION OF NON-OPEC SUPPLY GROWTH BETWEEN 2011-2016

US OIL SUPPLIES FORECASTED TO RISE ~15% BY 2016…

Source: BofA-ML Global Research, IMG. As of Jan. 2013.


Dec-93 Dec-95 Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

New Orders: Non-defense capital goods ex. Aircraft, YoY%

1998

1998

1999

2000

2000

2001

2002

2002

2003

2004

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2008

2008

2009

2010

2010

2011

2012

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160$180

$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

$27

$29

$31

Share Buybacks (in $billions, LHS) Dividends per Share (12 Months, RHS)

Corporate balance sheets hold the key: pent up demand is significant

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

M&A Transactions (in $bilions)

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 20123%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

Average

RecessionCorporate Profits as % of GDP

Source: BofA-ML Global Research, IMG. As of Jan. 2013.

While US GDP growth remains tepid, US corporate profits have soared leading companies to build cash on their balance sheets

CORPORATE PROFITS SOAR CAPEX SPENDING HAS NOT KEPT PACE

M&A ACTIVITY LOWEST SINCE 2002USE OF CASH: SHARE BUYBACKS AND DIVIDENDS AMONG S&P 500 COMPANIES


EM-driven global GDP growth continues to outpace developed markets…

Pe

rce

nt

(%)

GD

P G

row

th %

Source: IMF, BofA ML Global Research and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. October 2012.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

Gross Debt to GDP: Advanced economies Gross Debt to GDP: Emerging market and developing economies

GDP Growth: Advanced economies (RHS) GDP Growth: Emerging market and developing economies (RHS)


A rising middle class in China will continue to drive consumption growth

Middle class (household income RMB25-100k/year) increased from 55% to 77% of the population from 2005 to 2010

0

2

4

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162005 2010%

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Lower income group declined

Higher income group sharply rose

China urban household annual income (RMB)

Consumption will be backed by fast rate of wealth accumulation

Source: CEIC. September 2012.


Geopolitics a key part of the investment landscape – U.S. fiscal policy next up for markets to digest

Source: BofA ML Global Research and ML Investment Management & Guidance.


However our fiscal situation has improved …

Source: Strategas Research Partners.


Despite political gridlock in Washington, consumers show resilience

Source: University of Michigan, www.policyuncertainty.com, Haver Analytics, IMG. Policy Uncertainty Index measures policy-related economic uncertainty constructed from three types of underlying components: newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years, and disagreement among economic forecasters as a proxy for uncertainty using the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. For more information on the index methodology, please visit www.policyuncertainty.com.


Key investment themes …

Over the next 2-3 years, Equities do better than Bonds

Diversify Equity Holdings

Equities for growth: overweight cyclicals

Don’t write off Small Caps

European equities compelling valuation

Japanese equities for a tactical trade

Change approach to EMs: overweight domestically focused names, go beyond BRICs

Bonds for income and protection and actively position for rising rates

Refocus liquidity budget:

Refocus hedge fund portfolios to strategies that are less correlated with markets

Spend more of liquidity budget on Private Equity


US Equities remain a compelling asset class …

Source: BofaML Global Research. FactSet and ML Investment Management & Guidance. Data as of June 28, 2013.

S&P 500 EPS forecasted to growPlenty of cash on corporate balance sheets (as a % of total assets of S&P 500 co.


Investor Flows into equities have only just begun to reverse…

Source: BofA ML Global Research, EPFR, IMG. Data as of August 2013.


Rotate from expensive Defensives to cheap Cyclicals

Source: BofA ML Global Research, IMG.

Cyclicals are leading equities higher Sector’s sensitivity to US GDP Growth


European equities offer long term growth potential

Source: ML Investment Management & Guidance.; BofA ML Global Equity Research

European equities price to book valuation exceptionally cheap compared to the U.S.


Emerging Markets: go beyond the BRICs …

Source: FactSet. Bloomberg, IMG.

Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) 2013GDP expectations persistently downgraded

As of June 26, 2013

BRIC markets have lagged smaller non – BRICs since 2008

As of May 31, 2013


Government bond yields have been driven down …

*Source: Bloomberg, Investment Management & Guidance

Yields for 10 Yr Bonds for US, UK, Japan, Germany (1990 to 9/20/2013)

US: 2.72%UK: 2.92%Japan: 0.695%Germany: 1.94%


When Stocks Fell Sharply, Bonds Were Up …

U.S. Stocks U.S. Bonds

Jan 77–Feb 78 (9.7%) 5.1%

Dec 80–Jul 82 (14.2%) 17.8%

Sep 87–Nov 87 (27.9%) 4.7%

Jun 90–Oct 90 (14.1%) 2.4%

May 98–Aug 98 (11.9%) 2.7%

Mar 00–Dec 02 (39.0%) 30.6%

Sep 07-Dec 08 (39.1%) 9.5%

Average (22.3)% 10.4%

Source: Lipper, Inc., Bloomberg, BlackRock. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The information shown is for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to represent the performance of any particular investment. Returns reflect total cumulative return for the time periods specified. Time periods span the first day of the initial month through the last day of the final month. U.S. stocks are represented by the S&P 500® Index. U.S. bonds are represented by the Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate & Government Master Index. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of The McGraw-Hill Companies. See glossary for index definitions.


Potential benefits of a diversified Fixed Income portfolio

Source: IMG.*As of May 31, 2013; BofA ML Bond Indexes used to represent the various sectors of the Bond Market**Assuming a parallel shift in the yield curve. Note that changes in price return are approximate based on the investment’s duration.


6 Asset Mix

Stocks

Bonds

Cash

Hedge Funds

Real Assets

Private Equity

Portfolios benefit from diversification across a broader range of assets

For illustrative purposes only. Source: ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance . Asset allocation and diversification does not protect against losses in a declining market. Efficient frontier is based on ML capital market assumptions (CMA). See appendix for more details. Geo. Avg. Return (Annl.) is the geometric average of the portfolio models annualized returns. Conditional-Drawdown-At-Risk (CDAR) is the average of the worst (1-x)% of monthly drawdowns over the given time period; for example, CDaR(80) is the average of the worst 20% (or bottom quintile) of monthly drawdowns. The "efficient frontier" tracks the relationship of rate of return and performance volatility (as measured by standard deviation). While performance volatility is one widely-accepted indicator of risk in traditional investment strategies, in the case of alternative investment strategies, performance volatility is an indicator of only one dimension of the risk to which these actively-managed, skill-based strategies are subject. There is a "risk of ruin" in these strategies that has historically had a material effect on long-term performance but which is not reflected in performance volatility. From time to time, extremely low volatility alternative investments have incurred sudden and material losses. Consequently, any comparison of the "efficient frontiers" of traditional and alternative investments is inherently limited.


Hedge Funds: Refocus hedge fund allocation; add to strategies that are less correlated with equity markets

Sources: Centralized Investment Analytics and ML GWM Investment Management & Guidance. As of September 2012.

Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

S&P 500 Total Return 60-40 MSCI AC World-BarCap Global Agg (TR)DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund DJ Credit Suisse Managed FuturesDJ Credit Suisse Global Macro

His

tori

cal

Dra

wd

ow

n (

%)


Appendix: Important Information

This document is provided for information only and is not intended as a solicitation for any particular investment. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any client and does not represent investment advice or a personal recommendation to any person. Exchange rate fluctuations may adversely affect the value of and income from investments. The value of investments and their income can go down as well as up and could rise or fall dramatically. Investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Past performance should not be seen as an indication of future performance and no projection, representation or warranty is made regarding future performance.

Information included herein was obtained from sources we believe are reliable, but we have not verified and cannot ensure its accuracy. This document is only for your use and must not be given or shown to anyone else without our consent. Some of the products and services referred to in this presentation may not be suitable for all investors. Investors with any questions regarding the suitability of any of the products or services referenced in this presentation should consult their financial advisor. Some products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all clients.

Definitions:

Volatility: Measured by standard deviation, volatility is the amount that returns devotion from their mean.

Sharpe Ratio: Measure of an investment’s risk-return tradeoff, calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate from the rate of return of the investment and dividing the result by the standard deviation returns.

Capital Market Assumptions:

Merrill Lynch Capital Market Assumptions (return, volatility and correlation) include the following assets: Equity, Fixed Income, Cash, Hedge Funds, Private Equity and Real Assets. The assumptions continue to reflect conservative outlook that future market returns are more likely to be lower than their historical averages.

Index proxies for asset classes are as follows: Equities, S&P 500 Total Return; Fixed Income, 60% Ibbotson’s US Long Term Government Bond Index and 40% Ibbotson’s US Long Term Corporate Bond Index; Cash, Ibbotson's 30-Day T-Bill Total Return Index; Hedge Funds, CS Tremont Hedge Fund Total Return Index; Private Equity, 50% Thomson US All Private Equity; 50% Thomson Europe All Private Equity; Real Assets: (3/1997 to 12/2009): 55% FTSE-NAREIT Global Total Return Index; 35% DJ UBS Commodity Total Return Index; 10% ML US Treasury Inflation-Linked Total Return Index.; (1/2010 to 12/2010): 46% FTSE-NAREIT Global Total Return Index; 36% DJ AIG Commodity Total Return Index; 18% ML US Treasury Inflation-Linked Total Return Index. See additional appendix pages for index definitions.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. You cannot invest directly in an index.

As part of our ongoing process, we consider the current market environment, industry and competitive outlooks, and historical data. We review these assumptions periodically and make adjustments as appropriate.

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