PACD Investor Relations Slides - Pareto v5s24.q4cdn.com/232570774/.../PACD-Investor-Relations... ·...

18
Pacific Drilling Pareto Conference September 2019

Transcript of PACD Investor Relations Slides - Pareto v5s24.q4cdn.com/232570774/.../PACD-Investor-Relations... ·...

Page 1: PACD Investor Relations Slides - Pareto v5s24.q4cdn.com/232570774/.../PACD-Investor-Relations... · 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 Billion USD Offshore projects are providing healthy cash flows

Pacific Drilling Pareto ConferenceSeptember 2019

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THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO BUY OR SELL SECURITIES IN ANY JURISDICTION.

Forward‐Looking Statements 

Certain statements and information contained in this Presentation constitute “forward‐looking statements” within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, and are generally identifiable by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “intend,” “our ability to,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “projected,” “should,” “will,” “would,” or other similar words, which are generally not historical in nature. The forward‐looking statements speak only as of August 30th, 2019, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. 

Our forward‐looking statements express our current expectations or forecasts of possible future results or events, including future financial and operational performance and cash balances; revenue efficiency levels; market outlook; forecasts of trends; future client contract opportunities; future contract dayrates; our business strategies and plans or objectives of management; estimated duration of client contracts; backlog; expected capital expenditures; projected costs and savings; and the potential impact of our completed Chapter 11 proceedings on our future operations and ability to finance our business.

Our forward‐looking statements are not guarantees, and actual future results may differ materially due to a variety of factors. These statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and are based on a number of judgments and assumptions as of the date such statements are made about future events, many of which are beyond our control. Actual events and results may differ materially from those anticipated, estimated, projected or implied by us in such statements due to a variety of factors, including if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect. 

Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations include: the global oil and gas market and its impact on demand for our services; the offshore drilling market, including reduced capital expenditures by our clients; changes in worldwide oil and gas supply and demand; rig availability and supply and demand for high‐specification drillships and other drilling rigs competing with our fleet; costs related to stacking of rigs; our ability to enter into and negotiate favorable terms for new drilling contracts or extensions; our ability to successfully negotiate and consummate definitive contracts and satisfy other customary conditions with respect to letters of intent and letters of award that we receive for our drillships; possible cancellation, renegotiation, termination or suspension of drilling contracts as a result of mechanical difficulties, performance, market changes or other reasons; our ability to execute our business plans; the effects of our completed Chapter 11 proceedings on our future operations; and the other risk factors under the heading “Risk Factors” in our 2018 Annual Report on Form 20‐F and our Reports on Form 6‐K. These documents are available through our website at www.pacificdrilling.com or through the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

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Disclaimer

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Top Tier  Clients

“With our best‐in‐class drillships andhighly experienced team, Pacific Drilling

is committed to be the preferreddeepwater drilling contractor”

4.0 yearsAvg LTI‐free duration per rig

7High‐Specification Drillships

~$456mMarket cap

~$337mCash Balance

~62%Net Debt/Enterprise Value

98%Revenue Efficiency

since 2018

>8 yearsIndustry‐leading 

Operational Experience

$0Debt Maturities Until 

2023

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Pacific Drilling at a glance

3

$750m

$299m

Industry’s Youngest Rig Fleet

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The only pure‐play high‐specification deepwater driller

7 drillship fleet with premium technical capabilities

Good liquidity provides for financial flexibility

Leadership team and new shareholder base committed to creating value

Consistently delivering on safety, revenue efficiency and cost management

Rising utilization of high‐spec, ultra‐deepwater drillships due to increasing oil demand, declining reserves, and significantly lower offshore breakeven prices

Recent backlog additions with leading customers and readiness of available units position Pacific to capitalize on market upside

Investment proposition

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7th Generation Drillships

Pacific Sharav ‐ 2014Working for Chevron in US Gulf of Mexico

2 BOPs

6th Generation Drillships

Pacific Bora ‐ 2010Fully Crewed on Standby in Ghana

2 BOPs

Pacific Scirocco ‐ 2011Smart Stacked in Las Palmas

Pacific Mistral ‐ 2011Smart Stacked in Las Palmas

Pacific Santa Ana ‐ 2011Working for Total in MauritaniaRiser Gas Handling equipped

Pacific Khamsin ‐ 2013Ramping up for Equinor in US GoM/Mexico

2 BOPs, MPD equipped

Pacific Meltem ‐ 2014Smart Stacked in Las Palmas

2 BOPs

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Premium fleet of high‐specification drillships

Standardized rig fleet with common equipment packagesBuilt at Samsung Heavy Industries between 2010 –2014  

10,000 –12,000 ft water depth capability

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1. Floater market includes competitive and marketed semi‐submersible rigs and drillships.2. Dual derrick with offline stand‐building capability

Industry leading technical specifications

Sharav Meltem Khamsin Bora Scirocco Mistral Santa Ana

Sharav Meltem Khamsin Bora (2) ‐Scirocco Mistral (2) ‐Santa Ana

Sharav Meltem Khamsin Bora Scirocco ‐Mistral ‐Santa Ana ‐

Sharav Meltem Khamsin Bora ‐Scirocco ‐Mistral ‐Santa Ana ‐

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Share of floater fleet1 with key features

Water depth rating10,000ft or more Dual activity Dual BOP Main max hook load

2.5m lbs or more

Source: RigLogix and public information on rig specifications

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Existing contract coverage with exposure to market recovery

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~$337mcash balance1

~$456mmarket capitalization2

~$744min net debt3

(or ~$106m per rig)

Debt maturities

No debt maturities prior to Oct‐23

No debt amortization

No financial covenants

$750m

$299m

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

1st lien notes (2023) 2nd lien notes (2024)

1. Cash balance includes unrestricted cash & cash equivalents as of 8/30/20192. Market Capitalization based on share prices as of 8/30/20193. Net Debt = Debt – Cash & cash equivalents as of 6/30/2019. 4. 2nd lien note value includes PIK interest as of 6/30/20195. Enterprise Value = Net Debt + Market Capitalization

Strong balance sheet

4

Capitalization

Market Cap2

Equity and Debt as a % of Enterprise Value

Source:  Bloomberg

5

Net Debt3

Market Capitalization2

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Global oil reserves need to grow to keep pace with demand

6.5 4.2 11.4 2.9 4.5 5.1 4.1 3.9 7.0 3.7 10.0 2.3 6.2 5.4 3.9 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.9

190%

119%

314%

81%

122%135%

104%100%

172%

89%

238%

55%

141%128%

92%

32% 27% 26%9%

24%41%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Discovered ba

rrels as % of p

rodu

ction

Discovered ba

rrels  (b

illions)

Discovery Discovery rr%

Major E&Ps’ reserve replacement ratios have been at historic lows for the last 6 years 

Source: Rystad Energy, Clarksons Platou Sec. AS

Discovered barrels (lhs) % Reserve replacement (rhs)

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Offshore will be the largest contributor to reserve replacement

27.3 30.0

26.7 28.1

10.9 10.4

25.3 24.1

8.718.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

mmbb

ls/d

Offshore OPEC onshore Russia Other onshore Shale/Tight oil

Forecast  →

Global liquids production by source

Offshore supply is critically important . . . 

27.3

28.128.4 28.4

27.927.6

27.0

26.3

25.7

25.124.4

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

mmbb

l/d

Offshore production peaks in 2020 at 

“status quo” levels of investment

Offshore Production at 25% reserve replacement1

but new investments are needed to maintain production 

1. Average reserve replacement as a percentage of discovered offshore barrels is ~25% for 2013‐2018 period

Source: Clarksons Platou Sec. AS

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(125)

(75)

(25)

25

75

125

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Q42017

Billion

 USD

Offshore projects are providing healthy cash flows for E&P’s

11

(125)

(75)

(25)

25

75

125

Q42010

Q42011

Q42012

Q42013

Q42014

Q42015

Q42016

Q42017

Billion

 USD

Offshore focused companies1 Shale focused companies1

Last 8 Quarters

Q4 2018

Q4 2018

Source: Clarksons Platou Sec. AS, Bloomberg, public filings

1. Company group is comprised of 30 comparable E&P’s; charts reflect trailing 12‐month free cash flows & dividends

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Oil prices & break‐even economics make offshore attractive

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Break‐evens of undeveloped offshore liquids5‐year forward oil price

1. When the range of uncertainty of recoverable and/or potentially recoverable volumes are represented by a probability distribution, P50 means there should be at least a 50% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

< $2

0

$20‐25

$25‐30

$30‐35

$35‐40

$40‐45

$45‐50

 $50

‐55

$55‐60

$60‐65

$65‐70

$70‐75

$75‐80

Cumulative % of total P50

 resources

Resources P5

0 (billion bb

ls)

Resources Cumulative %

~90% of P501resources breakeven ator below $60/bbl

Source: Clarksons Platou Sec. AS

55

60

65

70

Mar‐18

Apr‐18

May‐18

Jun‐18

Jul‐1

8

Aug‐18

Sep‐18

Oct‐18

Nov

‐18

Dec‐18

Jan‐19

Feb‐19

Mar‐19

$/bb

l

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Floater Supply/Demand and Fleet Utilization

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Offshore Capex & Floater demand continue to increase

160 153

140

139

159167 171 178 186

194204

235253

257

222

163

130

127

141159 183

183

280

201

221

77%

90%

63%

83%

‐9%

1%

11%

21%

31%

41%

51%

61%

71%

81%

91%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

E

2020

E

2021

E

# of floa

ters

Total floater demand Marketed supply Adjusted Utilization

Offshore Capex by FID year

201 202

237

86

73

38

87 91

158

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

E

Source: Clarksons Platou Securities AS, Clarksons Research Services Limited, RigLogix

Marketed Utilization

$ Bn

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Customer enquiries are up and competitive supply is thinning out

Competitive Supply Universe

Historical Customer Enquiries

1. as of 9th September 20192. Of all 6th/7th Gen drillships, PACD considers 92 to have availability within the next two years  

1

Source: PACD, Fearnley Offshore

Source: PACD

2

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

EBITDA margin

Utilization

Historical EBITDA margin2 vs utilization

162 171 184205

242

315

369

526

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 87% 90%

Dayrate, $

k

Utilization

Dayrates based on historical1 utilization

Source: Clarksons Research Services, Clarksons Platou Sec. AS

High utilization leads to premium dayrates

69%

84%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Apr 2018 Apr 2019

Num

ber o

f rigs

committed available utilization

High‐spec 6th/7th Gen floater availability

1. “Historical” reflects all floaters rated 7,500+ ft water depth through 2000‐2018 time period2. EBITDA margin is on a per rig basis 

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Potential Upside if Enterprise Value per Rig on par with Peers 

1. Current Value is based on share price as of Sept 6, 2019 and face value of debt2. Zonda reference represents an arbitration claim receivable of $205m as reported in PACD’s most recent 6‐K.  While we believe in 

the strength of our claim, the receivable is a litigation matter as to which there can be no assurances of a positive outcome. 3. Source: SpareBank 1 Markets; Peer group is comprised of DO, VAL, NE, RIG, SDRL4. Illustrative mid‐cycle EV/Rig of $375m represents a view based on historical perspective5. EV/Rig illustrates enterprise value per 6th generation‐equivalent floater

3, 5 4, 5

CurrentValue1

@ Mid‐Cycle EV/Rig4, 5

Equity prices should increase towards mid‐cycle valuations as utilization pushes higher and dayrates rebalance

@ Current Peer Average 

EV/Rig3, 5

Illustrative PACD Share Values

Zonda

Zonda

2

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PACD is stronger than ever• Renewed leadership team• Strong balance sheet with extended liquidity runway• Lower net debt per rig as compared to peers• Exceptional operational & safety performance• Standardized fleet of high‐spec UDW drillships• Equity trading at significant discount to most peers on EV/Rig basis

Zonda arbitration award represents potential upside catalyst• Book value of claim receivable is $205m

Significant backlog upside and potential for improved fleet utilization• Priced options on recent awards could convert to backlog• PACD’s fleet is well positioned to take advantage of the developing market recovery• Proven low cost to ramp‐up rigs through smart stack program• Top‐tier client base and strong operating track record

Improving market conditions could yield mid‐cycle rates by 2021/2022

Key Takeaways from Pacific Drilling

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Q&A