PARTNERSHIP IN STATISTICS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY

The Challenges Facing Statistical Capacity Development in the ARAB REGION

Mohamed-El-Heyba Berrou

We all know that…

Decisions based on fact might be more expensive than those based on ignorance,

but they last a lot longer

If you cannot measure it, you cannot manage it

Statistics are a lifeblood of policy making and resource allocation

The importance of evidence for development effectiveness

But not everyone agrees …

Not relevant to people’s lives

Statistics are often perceived as boring

Out of date

Or even as facts that can “get in the way of policy making”

Statistics Need to Fight for their Place in Society

Public debate focuses on health, the economy, law and order…. Not on the quality of the national statistical system

The Main Challenges …

Official Statistics face challenges around the world

The Arab region is no different

Statistical Capacity in the Arab Region

Since 2004, the World Bank has calculated an annual composite indicator of the statistical capacity of developing countries. It has 3 component indicators:

1. Methodology: conformity with international statistical standards

2. Source Data: capacity to collect relevant timely data at appropriate intervals and whether administrative data are available and reliable.

3. Periodicity and timeliness of key macroeconomic and socio-demographic indicators and data availability based on international databases

All countries (*)of which:

Arab Countries (**)1999 2010 1999 2010

Overall 54 62 45 53 Methodology 46 54 38 43Source Data 54 59 40 47

Periodicity 61 74 56 69

Source: Development Data Group, World Bank(*) Data are for 154 developing countries (**) League of Arab States for which data are available: Algeria, Comoros, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia and Yemen

World Bank Statistical Capacity Indicator (on a scale of 0-100)

Statistical Capacity in the Arab Region

These results suggest

Although things have improved, Arab countries perform below average in every component

Tracking the MDGsNumbers of Developing countries by number of MDGS with at least 2 data points 1990 - 2008

Number of Indicators with at least 2 data points

All Countries

Arab Countries

No. % No. %

0 – 15 14 9 0 0

16 – 25 20 12 1 5

26 – 35 44 27 10 45

36 – 45 61 37 12 50

46 – 55 24 15 0 0

Total 163 100 18 100

Source: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/doc09/BG-MDGTables.xls

Tracking the MDGs

The Millennium Declaration in 2000 and the subsequent MDGs initiated a considerable amount of work among statisticians to measure the progress towards achieving the goals.

The Arab countries are monitoring the MDGs more actively than their peers, though none are in the top group.

How to break the Vicious Cycle….

Weak demand

Low funding

Weak statistics

by creating a Virtuous Cycle

Better Statistics

Increased demand

Better coordination

Increased and better spent resources

The 5 Main Challenges …

1. Improve dialogue between users & producers

2. Strengthen use of evidence in decision-making

3. More progress on statistical capacity development

4. Better use of resources for statistical development

5. Integrating statistics into national policy and budgetary frameworks – like the PRSPs

The Main Challenges … Number 1

How to improve the dialogue between users and producers?

Statistics are worthless unless they are used!

• An NSO’s job does not end when the statistics are released.

• Statisticians need to work to ensure that the information is used and used appropriately.

• And that requires working with users.

The Main Challenges … Number 2

How to strengthen the use of evidence in decision-making?

Statistics do not sell themselves!

AdvocacyWe all need to advocate for better statistics and better strategic planning for the statisticssystem

The Main Challenges … Number 3

How to make more progress on statistical capacity development?

N SDS

Focussing on the next 4 or 5 years

Brings together decision makers to have a coherent conversation about statistical priorities

NSDSFacilitates the production of better statistics and better statistical analysis,

Identifies – and responds to – the priorities of national decision makers.

The Qatar Example

• Launched in 2007• To strengthen statistical capacity

across entire Qatari NSS• Builds on previous work

NSDS vision is to achieve a coherent, integrated system of national statistics that responds to national and international user needs for high-quality statistical information to support evidence-based decision making and to monitor social and economic development.

Qatar’s NSDS

The Main Challenges … Number 4

Making better use of resources for statistical development

PARIS21 works to strengthen the coordination of all the actors working to develop National Statistical Systems

At the National level :

Supporting the creation of national partnerships for statistics comprising national players and those giving technical and financial support

At the Regional level :

Supporting the creation of regional strategies for the development of statistics (RSDS) .. Similar to the NSDSs

The Arab States and the Gulf Countries are working on regional strategies.

At the Global level:

The Partner Report on the Support to Statistics (PRESS)

Meetings of the PARIS21 Consortium

Following up on the implementation of the Dakar Declaration on the Development of Statistics according to development effectiveness principles

The Main Challenges … Number 5

Integrating statistics into national policy and budgetary frameworks

The priorities for data collection expressed in the NSDS should align with the needs of a country’s strategic development plan…

…Not always as easy as it sounds

International partnership of users and producers of statistics for development

From both developing and developed countries and multilaterals

Who Are PARIS21?

Develop capacity within NSS in developing countries to :

Reduce poverty and contribute to the achievement of the MDG’s

Improve governance and policy decisions

We aim to

Facilitation

Mobilisation of resources

Country level groups

Partnership

Co-ordination

Advocacy materials

Peer reviewsGuidance and documentation

Technical assistance

Conclusions

1. We need to use statistics better both in policy design and monitoring.

2. Strategic planning – through an NSDS – is essential for a mature statistical system.

3. Investment for statistics is vital – but we have to make the case.

Conclusions

4. Producers need to become much better at talking to users – they are the other half of an NSS.

5. Too few partners provide support. Those that do need to place their support within an NSDS so as not to distort national priorities and apply development effectiveness principles.

Next step

The 5th Forum on Statistical Capacity Development in the Arab Region, Beirut, Lebanon, May 2011

PARTNERSHIP IN STATISTICS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21ST CENTURY

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