I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

-P~-~~7--t+~ 4 I 5 '-( ,k:,

SECOND REPORT:

DEMOCRATIC VALUES OF THE

GUATEMALA PEACE SCHOLARSHIP

AND CENTRO ESTNA SAMPLES

DRAWN FROM THE DEMOCRATIC

INITIATIVES MONITORING SYSTEM

prepared by Malcolm B. Young, Ph.D. and Joel M. Jutkowitz, Ph.D.

DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATES INC. presented to

USAID/GUATEMALA/ODDT under contract

520-0398-C-00-2293-00 May 1996

Development Associates, Inc. 1730 North Lynn Street

Arlington, Virginia 22209

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Introduction

SECOND REPORT ON DEMOCRATIC VALUES OF THE GUATEMALA

PEACE SCHOLARSHIP AND CENTRO ESTNA SAMPLES DRAWN FROM THE DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES MONITORING SYSTEM

This report summarizes the findings of three surveys of participants in the Guatemalan Peace Scholarship Program (GPS) and the CENTRO ESTNA (ESTNA) program undertaken as part of the Democratic Initiatives Monitoring System (DIMS). The report's first section describes the methodology followed, the second section describes the key variables that define democratic values for the GPS and ESTNA samples, and the third section relates the study findings to USAID/GUATEMALA/ODDT's strategic objective tree.

SECTION I: METHODOLOGY

The design of the DIMS called for three surveys of GPS and ESTNA program participants: an initial survey at the start of the program, a follow-on shortly after completion of the program, and a second follow-on over a year later. The initial survey provided measures of participants' values prior to entering the USAID sponsored programs, and measured the degree to which the groups selected are representative of the general populace or have, as was assumed likely, certain characteristics which set them apart from other Guatemalans. The first follow-on served to measure the short-term impact of the GPS and CENTRO ESTNA programs on the democratic values of program participants. The purpose of the second follow-on, which occurred in January 1996, was to gauge the extent to which participant's values changed after they had returned to their jobs. Results of the first two surveys were reported in January 19951

• This report presents results from all three surveys.

The data collection instrument used in all three surveys was the same as the one used in the national DIMS survey, facilitating comparisons with the national survey.2

For the GPS, the surveys were of the participants in the first three Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) training groups. 3 The three groups received training between October 1993 and March 1994. The participants in each of the GPS

, Joel Jutkowitz and Malcolm Young. Democratic Values of the Guatemala Peace Scholarship and Centro ESTNA Samples Drawn from the Democratic Initiatives Monitoring System. Development Associates. January 1995.

2 See Appendix Two of Mitchell Seligson and Joel M. Jutkowitz, Guatemalan Values and the Prospects for Democratic Development, (Arlington: Development Associates, 1994) for a copy of that instrument.

3 Although data from other GPS groups were obtained as part of the DIMS study, data from these groups are not included in the analyses for this report because they are not comparable or complete across all three time periods. ·

1

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

groups were selected because they were field officers of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral located in rural parts of Guatemala, and thus in advantageous positions to develop and strengthen citizen participation in the democratic process in communities throughout Guatemala. The training for each GPS group was conducted in the United States over a six week period. The training, which was conducted in Spanish, included workshops, classes, case studies, demonstrations, discussions and exercises focused on strengthening participants' technical job knowledge related to the electoral process and their ability to develop and implement civic education programs in their departmental and municipal areas. Field experiences were designed to demonstrate various aspects of democratic governance and civic education in actual settings.

Following the six week training in the US, the GPS groups participated in a follow-up cycle of three seminar-workshop training events and periodic regional and national conventions of former GPS participants. In addition, the TSE initiated, in coordination with the GPS Program staff, a special effort designed to support the election of 1995, wherein the GPS participants participated in Training of Trainer (TOT) events, and were then required by the TSE to implement local training events for persons involved in the national elections.

The initial surveys of the GPS participants took place before the groups left for the United States at the hotel where the participants assembled prior to departure {in advance of the orientation briefing). The first follow-on survey took place several months after the groups returned. The second follow-on took place about 18 months later, after the cycle of follow-on activities. Both follow-on surveys were conducted throughout Guatemala in the homes of participants.

For ESTNA, the survey's universe is all those enrolled in the 1993/94 CENTRO ESTNA course. The course was designed to improve communication and understanding between military officers and civilian public officials, with an emphasis on issues surrounding public order and human rights. About half the participants were military and half civilian. The program took place in Guatemala City over a period of several months, with participants attending course sessions in addition to continuing their regular jobs. The duration of the ESTNA course was longer than the GPS six week US training programs, but there were no structured follow-on activities for members of the ESTNA group.

The initial survey of ESTNA participants was undertaken at the start of the course (during the first weeks). The first follow-on took place directly after the completion of the course. As with GPS, the second follow-on took place about 18 months after the first. The initial survey took place in Guatemala City and the follow-on surveys took place in the residences of participants. Initially, the ESTNA participants lived in or near Guatemala City, but by the time of the second follow-on survey many had been reassigned to other locations.

2

I I I I I I I I 1· I I I I I I I I I I

The number of persons interviewed in each round is shown in Table 1. The response rate for the GPS pretest survey was 100%; it was 99% for the 1st follow-up, and 100% for the 2nd follow-up. The response rate for the ESTNA pretest survey was 94%; it was 95% for the 1st follow-up, and 87% for the 2nd follow-up As the table shows, there was little attrition from one survey round to another. The loss of 6 females from the ESTNA sample is largely the result of being unable to locate the respondents, rather than their refusal to participate in the survey.

Table 1 Number of Persons Interviewed

Initial Survey 1st Follow-on 2nd Follow-on GPS 68 67 68

Male 42 41 42 Female 26 26 26

Centro ESTNA 59 60 55 Male 49 53 51 Female 10 7 4

Table 2 presents the characteristics of the GPS and ESTNA samples. The GPS sample has about 25% more men than women. The great majority of GPS participants (96%) have completed high school or at least attended university. The GPS group is overwhelmingly Ladino in terms of their self identification (88%). Only a small percentage indicate that they speak an indigenous language (10%). Compared to the national sample, the GPS group is somewhat better educated and much less likely to self-identify as indigenous, which is not surprising since the GPS group is largely made up of employees of the Tribunal Supremo Electoral who sit within the "Ladino" world in positions that require a certain measure of education.

The ESTNA participants are overwhelmingly male. They are also better educated than the GPS group (87% have at least some university level education, with over half having graduated and 14% having post graduate training). At the same time, the ESTNA participants are more likely to identify themselves as indigenous than are the GPS participants, and slightly less likely to speak only Spanish. The ESTNA sample has a far higher average monthly income (more than three times) than the GPS sample, with more than a third of the sample having incomes of 5,000 quetzales a month or more. But both samples report a far higher monthly income than the sample of the national population. 4

4 Of the national sample, only 7% reported a monthly income greater than the mean monthly income for the GPS sample and only 1 % reported an income higher than that of the ESTNA participants. However, it should be noted that a far greater proportion of the GPS and ESTNA interviewees answered questions about income than did interviewees in the national sample (93% of GPS and 96% of ESTNA as compared with 57% for the national sample).

3

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

In brief, the EST NA group is better educated and more economically well-off than the GPS participants, and both groups are considerably better educated and more affluent than the national population as a whole. The ESTNA group is also more likely to self-identify as indigenous than the GPS respondents, with both groups being more Ladino than the entire population.5

Table 2 Characteristics of Elite Survey Sample (Pre-test)

GPS ESTNA (N=68) (N=59)

Gender Male 62% 83% Female 38% 17%

· Ethnic Self Identification Ladino 88% 75% Indian 12% 25% Language Group Queche Speakers 1% 2% Speakers other Indian 9% 14% Language Only Speaking Spanish 90% 84% Age Mean Age 34.3 41.9 Range 24-62 21-70 Education Mean Grade Level Completed Completed Some University

Secondary School Range 5th grade to 2nd grade to Post

University University Completion

Monthly Income (Participant) Mean Monthly Income Q 1779 05565 Range on Income Q 1,000-7,500 Q 400-20,000

s On the national survey, 36 % of the respondents self-identified as Indian. 4

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

SECTION II: KEY ATTITUDINAL VARIABLES

Central to the DIMS is assessing the extent of support for the Guatemalan political system, the support for democratic norms (especially civil liberties and political tolerance), and the relationship between the two. This section presents findings for the GPS and ESTNA surveys with respect to these variables. The conceptual and technical bases for the analyses are discussed in the reports summarizing the DIMS national surveys, and they will be only touched on briefly in the discussion below.

System Support

System support is the legitimacy accorded by the populace to the political system in general and to its component institutions. The indicator of support used in this study is based on responses to a series of questions regarding confidence in the government currently in office and other questions relating to the political system in general. Prior political science research has shown that more generalized, or diffuse, support for the political system is a better indicator of democratic values than potentially transitory support for the current regime. Thus, the analyzes reported here are based on the more general of these items.

To assess underlying support for the political system, we used a six item scale assessing public trust in the courts, Congress, the Electoral Tribunal, public offices, the protection of human rights, and political parties. This was the same scale used in the analysis of the national level data. Tables 3 and 4 present the results for each of the six items for each time period. Table 3 presents results for GPS and table 4 for ESTNA. To facilitate comparisons, the responses from each item have been converted to a scale with a range from 0 to 100, and the numbers reported are the average scale score for each respondent group.

In general, and looking over all three points of time, the data show a significant increase in support for both of the groups, with almost all of the change occurring between the second and third data collection points. Highlights from tables 3 and 4 include:

For both groups confidence was highest for the Electoral Tribunal at each of the three data points. GPS participants, who were all employed by the Tribunal, expressed such high levels of confidence in their institution when they began training that there was no room for their scores to rise. For ESTNA participants, it is interesting to note that although there was no change between the first two points, there was a significant increase by the third. The Presidential election occurred between the second and third data collection periods, so this increase suggests that ESTNA participants perceived the activities of the Tribunal during the election period in a positive way.

5

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

•

•

100

80

60

40

20

0 Courts

Exhibit 3 System Support Components

Guatemala Peace Scholarship (GPS) Sample (Values are Means)

Public Officials Protection of Rights Electoral Tribunal

D Initial Survey l'l!I 1st Followup • 2nd Followup *There Is a significant change in the data between the 1st and 2nd Followup for

the Congress item (<.000) and the Parties item (<.05}.

Congress• Parties•

Confidence in the courts increased over the three points in time for both groups . When training began, the ESTNA group registered a slightly lower level of

confidence than did the GPS group. Following training the confidence of both groups had risen slightly, with a significant increase occurring between the second and third data collection points.

The confidence in Congress for both groups followed a pattern similar to that of the courts, except that the increase was much more dramatic. There was little or no change between the first two points, but significant change between time 2 and 3. Confidence in the Congress increased 96 percent among the GPS participants and 75 percent among the ESTNA participants following the elections of 1995.

6

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

100

80

60

40

20

0 Courts Public Officials

Exhibit4 System Support Components

Centro ESTNA Sample (Values are Means)

85

Human Rights Electoral ltlbunal

CJ Initial Survey El 1st Follow up • 2nd Follow up

•There Is a significant (<.000) change In the data tor the Congress llem between the 1st and 2nd Followup. The Parties Item data show a significant (<.05) change between the lnltlal Survey and the 1st Followup.

Congress• ParHes•

• For the GPS group the level of confidence in political parties rose significantly (42 percent) between the second and third data collection points, but changed very little between time 1 and time 2. The confidence in parties among the ESTNA participants also grew substantially, but for them the significant rise from the first to the second data point.

• The perception that the human rights of Guatemalans are well protected did not change for the ESTNA participants but did among the GPS group. Again, the change occurred between the second and the third point in time.

Table 5 presents the summary scale scores for the GPS and ESTNA groups for each of the three data collection points. Again we see a significant change from the start of training through the third data collection point, and again we see that the significant change occurred between points two and three.

7

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

100

80

GPS*

Exhibit 5 System Support

(Values are Means)

The national average for all Guatemalans, based on the1995 DIMS household

Centro ESTNA *

llJ.l Initial Survey tll 1st Followup • 2nd Followup *There is a significant change (<.001) in the GPS data between the 1st and 2nd

Followup. The ESTNA data also show a significant change (<.05) between the 1st and 2nd Followup.

There are several possible explanations for this pattern of results. One obvious explanation is that neither type of training had any meaningful effect on system support, but that a change in general conditions in Guatemala, and particularly the successful execution of the national elections in 1995, account entirely for the positive change. Since changing the perceptions of Guatemalan reality in ways that are directly tapped by survey questions related to systems support was not among the short term objectives of the GPS and ESTNA programs, there is no reason to have expected a significant change over the short run in the level of system support as a result of participation in either the GPS or the ESTNA programs.

A more sophisticated, and we believe more credible, explanation rests on the assumption that although there was little reason to have expected a change over the short run, the courses were expected to lead to some changes in the attitudes and skills of the participants that would effect the way they performed their public jobs. Because of the cycle of follow-on activities, this was particularly true for the GPS participants. Assuming that work related behavioral changes did occur, it is reasonable to assume that GPS participants, who were all directly employed by the Tribuno Supremo Electoral, were positively reinforced by their employer (the TSE) and the public in ways that contributed to their more positive level of system support, and that the conduct of the TSE throughout the election period contributed to the more positive views of the ESTNA group.

8

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

Support for Democratic Liberties

Support for democratic liberties is the set of values that focus on the acceptance of democracy within the context of a democratic order. The democratic liberties index is composed of two sub-indices, with the second, values related to a tolerance for political dissent, being of particular importance.

Extensive Participation Index -- This reflects the degree to which respondents are in favor of various forms of political participation. Interviewees were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the public taking part in the following actions in order to accomplish their objectives:

• participating in legal demonstrations • participating in groups or associations that try to resolve community problems • working for a party or candidate during an electoral campaign

Tolerance of the Right to Dissent-- This reflects the degree to which respondents tolerate the political expression of views to which they are opposed. Interviewees were asked to respond to the following statement: There are people that always speak badly of the government, or are against what the government does, be it the current, previous, or future government. Tell me if you agree or disagree that these people should be allowed to:

• vote • participate in non-violent demonstrations • hold government offices (e.g. be deputies) • use the radio or television to publicize their beliefs

Given the nature and purposes of the GPS and ESTNA programs, it is reasonable to expect that they might result in a positive change in the values of participants on the index of democratic liberties.

Tables 6 and 7 show the results of the seven items related to democratic liberties, with table 6 summarizing the results for GPS and table 7 for ESTNA. Highlights of the two tables include:

• Acceptance of legal demonstrations increased significantly for both groups. For GPS, the significant increase was between the first and the second data point, while for ESTNA the major increase was between times 2 and 3.

• The level of acceptance of people participating in community groups or associations was quite high even at the start of the training programs. The GPS group scored over 90 on a 100 point scale at all three points in time, and the ESTNA group scored above a 90 at last two.

9

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

10

80

60

40

20

0

Exhibit 6 Components of Democratic Liberties

Guatemala Peace Scholarship (GPS) Sample (Values are Means)

Demonstrations• Communal Groups Election Campaigns Right to Vo1e* Right Demonstrate• Right to Run* Right to Free Speech

Ell Initial Survey El 1st Followup Ill 2nd Followup

• There is a significant change in the Demonstration item between 1he Initial survey and the 1st Followup (<.05), and between the Initial Survey and the 2nd Followup (<.005). The Right to Vote item shows a significant change (<.005) between the Initial Survey and the 2nd followup. Right to Demonstrate shows a significant change (<.05) between the Initial Survey and the 1st Followup. There is a significant change between the Initial Survey and the 2nd Followup for the Aightto Aun item (<.05).

• For the ESTNA group there was no significant change from prior to training through the follow-on period on any of the four items making up the Tolerance scale.

• For GPS, there was a significant increase in tolerance for the right of others to demonstrate between the first and second data point, and a significant increase between the pre-training score and the third data collection point in tolerance for all types of persons to vote, and even to run for office.

The average composite scores for the GPS and ESTNA groups on the Tolerance index are presented in table 8. As the table shows, the level of tolerance for political dissent from both groups is substantially higher than the level for the population as a whole. With respect to changes in that level, there was a statistically significant increase in the level of tolerance among the GPS group between their pre-training

10

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

level and the point of the second follow-on. The trend for this group was also steadily in the direction of increased tolerance.

10

80

60

40

20

0

Exhibit 7

Components of Democratic Liberties Centro ESTNA Participants

(Values are Means)

98

Demonstrations.. Communal Groups• Election Campaigns Right to Vote Right to Demonstrate Right to Run Right to Free Speech

[)Initial Survey Ell 1st Followup B 2nd Followup

• There are significant changes in the Demonstration item between the 1st and 2nd Followup (<.05), and between the Initial Survey and the 2nd Followup ( <.005). There is a significant change in the data for Communal Groups, between the Initial Survey and the 2nd Followup (<.05).

It is interesting to note that although there was no change in the level of political tolerance among the ESTNA group, these participants began training at a level significantly above the participants in the GPS program. Intriguingly, this suggests that the level of tolerance for dissent from the military officers who participated in the ESTNA program was greater than the level of the GPS participants who worked for the TSE. Most likely, this is explained by the differences in the socio-demographic characteristics of the two groups. That is, overall the ESTNA group was somewhat better educated, somewhat older, and contained a higher proportion of Indians than the GPS participant group. That by the end of the study period the two groups were now essentially at the same level suggests that the GPS training and follow-on activities may have significantly contributed to the increase in political tolerance of the TSE groups.

11

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

SECTION Ill: THE STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE TREE

There are three strategic performance indicators contained within the ODDT Strategic Objective tree: due process under law, individual free expression and participation, and public confidence in key democratic institutions and processes. The DIMS provides a set of measures for each of these strategic performance indicators.

• Public Confidence in Key Democratic Institutions and Processes--The DIMS measures for this strategic performance indicator are contained in the System Support Index which tracks the degree to which respondents have confidence in the basic institutions and processes of the democratic order. The index covers confidence in the courts, the congress, electoral tribunal, public offices, human rights and political parties.

Exhibit 8 Tolerance for the Right to Dissent

(Values are Means)

100

80

60

40

20

GPS* Centro ESTNA

El Initial Survey Iii 1st Followup• 2nd Followup * The GPS data show a significant (<.01) increase

between the Initial Survey and the 2nd Followup.

86.1

The national average of all Guatemalans, based on the 1995 DIMS household survey.

• Individual Free Expression and Participation--The best measure from the DIMS of the individual free expression and participation indicator is the index of support for democratic liberties. The Democratic Liberties Index provides an overall measure of the degree to which Guatemalans accept widespread participation by their fellow citizens and believe in the right to dissent of those in the political minority. As we described in the previous section, there can be

12

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

•

important differences between the two components. Thus, there is a need to track both the overall index and its major components: the Extensive Participation index (EP) and the Right to Dissent index (RD}.

Due Process of Law--With respect to due process of law, the emphasis in the ODDT program is on assuring greater access to a more equitable criminal justice system. The DIMS provides measures of broad perspectives on this system as a whole and on certain specific qualities that contribute to access and equity in the administration of justice. The first item to be included is a broad measure of equity within the system. It deals with a question of human rights by examining the degree to which judges "respect and defend the right to life of the country's inhabitants". The second item looks at the way respondents perceive the treatment they receive from judges and judicial employees. The third item asks whether judges and the judicial institution contributes to resolving the country's problems. The fourth item explores whether the courts are perceived as favoring the rich and powerful, another definition of the equitable nature of the institution. The last item explores whether or not the courts are perceived as working rapidly.

Table 9 summarizes the results across the three data collection points for the GPS and ESTNA groups for each of these indicators.

Table 9 GPS and ESTNA Groups and Strategic Indicators

Indicator GPS Centro ESTNA 1994 1994 1996 1994 1994 1996

System Support Index 42 44 51 38 42 48 Democratic Liberties Index A. Extensive Participation 81 91 89 85 89 95 B. Right to Dissent 66 77 82 80 80 86 Due Process Under Law 1. Defense of human rights by judges; 58.9% 55.2% 69.1% 64.4% 68.4% 63.7% 039(% positive) 2 .Treatment of public by judges and 42.6% 40.3% 47.1% 22.0% 18.3% 25.4% judicial employees; 034 (%positive) 3. Judicial institution helps resolve the 5.9% 3.0% 2.9% 8.5% 8.3% 7.3% country's problems; 019 (%positive) 4. Courts favor rich and powerful; 1.5% 0 1.5% 8.5% 1.7% 5.5% 087(% saying no) 5. Courts works rapidly; 088 4.4% 3.0% 5.9% 3.4% 3.3% 0 (%positive)

13

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

With regard to due process, it should be noted that there is positive movement for the first two indicators for the GPS groups between the first and third measurements, although there was a dip in both cases in the second measurement. Thus, it is likely the shift may reflect a perception of events rather than a product of training. On measurement 3 Uudiciary assists in solving national problems), there is a slight decline for both GPS and ESTNA groups. The cells have very few cases, but the indication is that the judiciary in Guatemala are not seen as increasingly more involved in the country's development.

14