Ozone production and its Ozone production and its

sensitivity to emissionssensitivity to emissions

An overview of the work conducted at LISA

Isabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

Analysis of the factors influencing OAnalysis of the factors influencing O33 production productionIsabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA)

o Constitution of an optimized model configuration through– The simulation of episodes with various chemical and dynamical inputs

– The generation of validation indices of model-measurement comparison

– A detailed analysis of the simulation results

o The observation of ozone formation on the ESCOMPTE domain trough– The identification of the location of destruction and production areas

– The simulation of specific dynamical periods : which effect on ozone formation ?

o Following ozone production along the VOC decomposition pathways (prospective : to be conducted)– Where and when do VOC species and families produce ozone?

– Which VOCs are most involved in fast ozone production rates? in ozone peaks?

– Which VOCs most participate in regional ozone export?

– Which link with ozone control policies?

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

At ground level on ESCOMPTE IOPs– Ozone production rates up to 45ppbv/h– Identification of photochemically active air masses and inert ozone plumes

Possible to identify geographical/quantitative trends in the ozone – ozone formation relationship ?

– Large variability of the PO3 plume shape, extent and intensity from one day to another => “statistical analysis” from one period to another => effect of dynamics or effect of emissions ?

07/08 12/08<

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

Identification of ozone chemical regimes– Greater consistency

– Problem of the intermediate zone

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

Following POFollowing PO33 along VOC degradation along VOC degradation

o Idea : to bring information on the participation of each VOC species/family to ozone production by marking primary and secondary species evolution

SPECIES + OH PRODUCTS … O3 ?

o Tracers of VOC degradation => information on – Number of VOC molecules degraded at each location

– Transport and degradation of secondary species

BENZENE

ALKANES

C3H8

Statistic analysis of their participation in high PO3The results expected from these studies should bring a better understanding of the development of regional ozone episodes in relation with precursor emissions.

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA), S. Fayet (AIRMARAIX)

J.L. Ponche (LPCA), S. Cautenet, J. Arteta (LaMP), R. Vautard (LMD)

o The project PRIMEQUAL 2 – PREDIT Scenarios– influence of realistic strategies and arbitrary scenarios of reduction of the

emissions, over various durations, in order to constitute a tool for the evaluation of environmental policies

– questions are centered around the combination of actions to be conducted in order to respect current and future european ozone thresholds

How to avoid ozone pollution peaks ? Which realistic emission modifications can be proposed to reduce ozone background

pollution ?

Traffic modulationsEvolutions of the road networkEmergency actions

Modifications pf NMVOC emission specificationsRéduction of punctual NOx emissions

Consequence of the new European legislationLocal decisions to reduce air pollution

Sc 0 ARéférence

(2001 et 2003) hors MU

Scénario de référence (hors MU) . Projections 2001 et 2003 . Validation modèle + Référence

Sc 0 BRéférence 2003

avec MUScénario de référence (avec MU) - Projection 2003 en

tenant compte restrictions prises suite MU. Validation modèle + Référence

Sc 1 Tendanciel 2010Scénario tendanciel 2010 : Projection 2010 "au fil de

l'eau" (prolongement des évolutions en cours).Que se passerait-il en 2010 si aucune

mesure n'était prise ?

Sc 2 A "OPTINEC" 2010Scénario OPTINEC 2010 (CITEPA, MàJ Oct.2004) : il

s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réaliste" calculé par le CITEPA

Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la

réglementation engagée (situation nationale probable)?

Sc 2 B NEC 2010Scénario NEC 2010 : Respect de la directive NEC. Il

s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réglementaire".Que se passerait-il en 2010 si la France respecte la

directive NEC?

Sc 3 Réaliste 2010 Scénario 2 A + particularités régionales

Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la

réglementation engagée(situation nationale probable + situation

régionale probable)?

Sc 4 AMU

opérationnelles 2010

2010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été 2004Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 > projection

2010?

Sc 5 AMU

complémentaires2010

2010 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentairesEffet de MU complémentaires > projection

2010?

Sc 4 BMU opérationnelles

2001-20032001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été

2004Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 sur les

épisodes de pollution 2001-2003?

Sc 5 BMU

complémentaires 2001-2003

2001-2003 / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentaires Effet des MU complémentaires sur les épisodes de pollution 2001-2003?

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

o Scientific objectives– To establish a link between ozone and its chemical precusors

in order to identify and quantify the chemical factors most involved in the development of photochemical pollution

What are the responses of ozone to the emissions of its precursors (NOx, the globallity of the VOCs, each VOC individually)? How to quantify it?

Is there a variability of the ozone responses to emissions according to the type of meteorological situation? How to determine it?

Which category(ies) of emitter(s) do(es) mostly participate in ozone production?

– To establish a map of these relationships this will allow the geographical analysis of the efficiency of emission reduction

scenarios

– To quantify the impact of ozone control policies on several time scales What is the efficiency of the legislations for the year 2010? On ozone episodes /

long term efficiency ? Impacy on ozone peaks, 8h-mean ozone concentrations, background pollution

The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE contributionCHIMERE contribution

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

Realistic scenarios

Definition: Simulations with emissions projected for the year 2010

Objectives: Qualification of the efficiency of measures engaged for the year 2010

Results: evaluation of the impacts on ozone concentrations

Theoretical scenariosDefinition: Simulations with reductions of the emissions of ozone precursors (VOCs, NOx, combined reductions, and reductions on each VOC) Objectives: Analysis of the ozone-precursors relation on the siteEvaluation of the pertinence of the realistic scenarios

Results: Sensitivity to the main categories of emitter Ozone sensitivity to emissions of its precursors

Simulations conducted on ~30 days on the ESCOMPTE domain representative of various and contrasted pollution events - IOP2, 3, 4 and 1-16 august 2003

The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE strategyCHIMERE strategy

Precursors to play on ? Expected effects ?

NOxVOC_40

VOC_40

NOx_40

Necessary to combine efforts on NOx and VOCs

Significative impacts expected - 20 to - 40 µg/m3

Maxima of ozone

Difference with the reference

Location of the impacts of anthropogenic activities

GSP_40

TRAFIC_40

TOT_40

Difference with the reference

Effect of ozone threshold exceedances : Road traffic and industrial emission = - 40%

Ozone max

10/08/03

Ozone max

12/08/03

No more threshold exceedance

Increase of ozone :

Threshold exceedance

No effect on exceedance

Regulation seems to be efficient Necessary to test it over a long period First guess : persistence of measures over several days

Noxcov_40 Situation 2010

Ozone maximum

o Emission scenarios : projection to year 2010

Anyway => necessary to add supplementary measures

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05

o Spatial analysis of VOC influence– Geographical scale of impact of emission reduction– Influence on the redistribution of urban and regional ozone maxima and means

o Study of the evolution of pollutants in the urban and industrial plumes

o Evaluation and proposal of efficient emission reduction policies

o Study of the influence of emission reductions on background pollution (long term study) – Statistical evaluation of the impact of new regulations on air quality

The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project Expected results Expected results