own the future iShares megatrends · Facebook Berkshire Hathaway ICRMH0720U-1254309-28/44....
Transcript of own the future iShares megatrends · Facebook Berkshire Hathaway ICRMH0720U-1254309-28/44....
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MEGATRENDS OWN THE FUTURE
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The modern world is changing at the speed of innovation
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1 billion……hours ago
humanity emerged…seconds ago
IBM released the first PC…Google searches occurred this morning1
1 Source: All 3 “billion” stats: (2013) Hal Varian, “Beyond Big Data”.
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For illustrative purposes only.
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Structural themes are long-term opportunities driven by powerful transformations in our economy and society
Structural > cyclical
Time
Cyclical themes
Gro
wth
Structural themes
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Structural theme:
horses
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vs. cars
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From 1905-1930, the number of horse-drawn carriages fell
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93%
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) Riding the Energy Transition, May 2017.
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https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2017/05/22/Riding-the-Energy-Transition-Oil-Beyond-2040-44932
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Televisions in U.S. households
0.01%
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1 "1920s-1960s Television", Elon University School of Communications .
19461
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http://www.elon.edu/e-web/predictions/150/1930.xhtml
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Televisions in U.S. households
83%
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1 "Number of TV Households in America", Buffalo History Museum.
19581
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http://www.buffalohistory.org/explore/exhibits/virtual_exhibits/wheels_of_power/educ_materials/television_handout.pdf
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Years new technology takes to reach 1/4 of American population1
4 years
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2004 –Facebook
1 Source: Pew Research Chart of the Week: The ever-accelerating rate of technology adoption; Yahoo Finance for number of active users at Facebook over the years. References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for the iShares funds, please visit www.iShares.com.
1876Telephone
35 years
1975PC
16 years
1991The Web
7 years
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The Goldilocks problem
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F – A – A – N - G
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Source: Pew Research Chart of the Week: The ever-accelerating rate of technology adoption; Yahoo Finance for number of active users at Facebook over the years. References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes onl y and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for t he iShares funds, please visit www.iShares.com.
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Company B
up 22%
Company A
up 213%
5/99 6/99 7/99 8/99 9/99 10/99 11/99
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Can you spot the FAANG?Two “pure-play” e-commerce names had very different charts in 1999
May 19, 1999 to November 30, 1999
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, December 2019.
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5/99 5/03 5/07 5/11 5/15 5/19
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Can you spot the FAANG?
Growth from May 19, 1999 to May 30, 2020
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg, May 2020 1 Amazon total return was 3,400% between 05/19/1999 and 05/31/2020. Includes dividends. 2 eToys filed for bankruptcy in February, 2001.References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for the iShares funds, please visit www.iShares.com.
They’re even more different 20+ years later
Amazon gave investors a
34x return1
eToys filed for
bankruptcy2
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May-99 May-03 May-07 May-11 May-15 May-19
Nasdaq
NASDAQ Composite Index
3x returns1
Broad Tech Index
Too broadBroad indexes may be too
diversified to offer targeted
thematic exposure.
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What about a tech focused index?
For illustrative purposes only. Source: Bloomberg., May 2020 .1 Nasdaq returned 309% between 05/19/1999 and 05/31/2020.Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transaction cost s or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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MSCI ACWI Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Index
Targeted Index
23xreturns1
Megatrend Index
Focused Exposure
??returns1
Single stocksIncreased risk
Lack diversification
The Goldilocks scenario
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1 Reflects total returns, including dividends, from 09/15/99 through 05/31/20. Data from Bloomberg as of May 2020. The MSCI ACWI Internet & Direct Marketing Retail Index has returned 2,342% and the Nasdaq Composite Index has returned 326% over this time period. Index performance is for illustrative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect any management fees, transactions costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Broad IndexLack targeted exposure
3xreturns1
Nasdaq Composite IndexBroad Tech Index
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T – R – E – N - D
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It’s on the tip of your tongue
Are self driving cars cool?
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And the top of your Twitter
Will there be more of them on the road in 10 years?
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At a tipping pointRegulatory, societal and economic forces are tailwinds for long-term, secular trends
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Regulatory
Societal
Economic
forces
For illustrative purposes only.
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At a tipping pointRegulatory, societal and economic forces are tailwinds for long-term, secular trends
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Regulatory
Societal
Economic
4xfrom 2019 to 20251
In China, the number of all-electric vehicle sales is expected to grow
25%less CO2 per km driven2
Beginning January 1, 2021 new vehicles sold in the EU must emit
For illustrative purposes only. Forecasts may not come to pass. Source: 1 Los Angeles Times, "China EV Makers", September 2019. 2 January 2018, WSJ, June 2019, William Boston.
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https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2019-09-25/chinas-ev-makers-plunge-on-fears-that-a-government-backed-bubble-is-burstinghttps://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/China_NEV_mandate_PolicyUpdate%20_20180525.pdfhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-auto-makers-have-to-sell-more-electric-cars-as-new-emission-targets-loom-11561139522
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At a tipping pointRegulatory, societal and economic forces are tailwinds for long-term, secular trends
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Regulatory
Societal
Economic
80%of U.S. consumers age 18-34 are willing to pay more for EVs/Hybrids1
For illustrative purposes only. Forecasts may not come to pass. Source: 1 WardsAuto, February 2019, Steven Finlay.
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https://www.wardsauto.com/technology/survey-most-consumers-willing-pay-more-alt-propulsion
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At a tipping pointRegulatory, societal and economic forces are tailwinds for long-term, secular trends
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Regulatory
Societal
Economic
Forecasts may not come to pass. Source: BloombergNEF. For illustrative purposes only.
Cost of EV batteries continues to decline
2010
$1,160 2018
$176
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https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/
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Megatrends are driving changeMegatrends are the long-term, transformational forces driving our global economy & society.
Technological breakthrough
Demographics & social change
Rapid urbanizationClimate change & resource scarcity
Emerging global wealth
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Technological breakthrough
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What would you rather sacrifice for one week?
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OR
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49%willing to give up dessert
74%willing to give up alcohol
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Source: Delvv, Digital Habits 2016 Survey Findings, June 2016.
Drumroll please…
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2015 15bn
2017 20bn
2019 28bn
2021 35bn
2023 50bn
2025 75bn
Source: Statista, Internet of Things (IoT) Connected Devices Installed Base Worldwide from 2015 to 2025. For illustrative purposes only.
Internet-connected devices
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# of Cybercriminals on the FBI’s most wanted list(in millions)
1in 2014
71in 2020
Source: ITRC, 2017 ITR Annual Data Breach Year-End Review, as of February 2018. For illustrative purposes only.
More data more problems
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The top 5 companies in the S&P 500 has changed over time, with only Microsoft retaining its spot. What will the next 20 years look like?
2000 2020 2040
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MegaRule #1: Weight for tomorrow
S&P 500 Weight S&P 500 Weight
Microsoft
General Electric
Cisco
Microsoft
Apple
Amazon
Source: Bloomberg, data as of 01/01/2000 and 01/01/2020. References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for the iShares funds, please visit www.iShares.com.
Walmart
Intel
Facebook
Berkshire Hathaway
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Demographics & social change
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U.S. healthcare spending continues to rise
Longer, healthier lives
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The 60+ demographic is rapidly increasing
1BIn 2015
Over 602BIn 2025
Over 604TIn 2017
Spent on national healthcare in the U.S.
6TIn 2027
Spent on national healthcare in the U.S.
Sources: Left side: United Nations World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision. Right side: Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services..
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https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2017_DataBooklet.pdfhttps://www.cms.gov/Research-Statistics-Data-and-Systems/Statistics-Trends-and-Reports/NationalHealthExpendData/Downloads/ForecastSummary.pdf
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Seek to do well & do good
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GenomicsUsing an individual’s DNA to tailor medical treatment
Did you know? The first whole human genome sequencing cost
~2.7B in 2003. Today it costs $699.1
Novartis Moderna, Inc.Sangamo
Therapeutics, Inc.
ZIOPHARM Oncology, Inc.
ImmunologyUsing the body’s immune system to fight disease
Did you know? With over 32 FDA approvals and rising,
immunotherapy is already boosting lung, renal, brain and skin cancer survival rates.2
Sources: 1 Dante Labs, March 2018, Andrea Riposati.2 https://www.cancerresearch.org.
References to specific companies are strictly for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or recommendations regarding those companies. For holdings information for the iShares funds, please visit www.iShares.com.
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https://us.dantelabs.com/https://www.cancerresearch.org/
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Rapid urbanization
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Rise of the megacities
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Population growth of the world’s megacities through 2030
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, The World’s Cities in 2018.
Shanghai+7 million (28%)
Sao Paulo+2 million (10%)
Cairo+5 million (27%)
Dhaka+9 million (43%)
Delhi+9 million (37%)
New York+1 million (6%)
Los Angeles+1 million (6%)
13M 20M
24M
26M
39M
33M
28M
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ONE Megacity, FIVE Megatrends
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Technological breakthrough
Demographics& social change
Rapidurbanization
Climate change & resource scarcity
Emergingglobal wealth
Cities will invest $41 trillion through 2036 to leverage the internet of things1
Eight in ten U.S. residents 65 and older live in metropolitan
areas.2
MTA is spending $22b more on infrastructure upgrades
over the next five years.3
Over 100 cities worldwide are now powered primarily
by renewable energy.4
440 EM cities will make up half of GDP growth between
2010 and 2025.5
For illustrative purposes only. 1 CNBC, "Spending on smart cities around the world", October 2016 . 2 MarketWatch, "What these age forward cities are doing for older residents", October 2019. 3 WSJ, "MTA wants to spend $55B to improve your commute", September 2019. 4 Inside Climate News "More than 100 cities worldwide now powered primarily by renewable energy", February 2018. 5 McKinsey, "Unlocking the potential of emerging market cities", September 2012.
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https://api.ctia.org/docs/default-source/default-document-library/how-5g-can-help-municipalities-become-vibrant-smart-cities-accenture.pdfhttps://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/25/spending-on-smart-cities-around-the-world-could-reach-41-trillion.htmlhttps://api.ctia.org/docs/default-source/default-document-library/how-5g-can-help-municipalities-become-vibrant-smart-cities-accenture.pdfhttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-these-age-forward-cities-are-doing-for-older-residents-2019-10-28https://www.wsj.com/articles/mta-wants-to-spend-55-billion-to-improve-your-commute-11568667582https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27022018/renewable-energy-cities-clean-power-technology-cdp-report-global-warming-solutionshttps://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/urbanization/unlocking-the-potential-of-emerging-market-cities
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Climate change & resource scarcity
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$2T gap to meet gov’t renewable targets
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total investment needed by 2030 for the implementation of renewable energy targets.
U.S.
$16B
Latin America
$218B
Africa
$225BAsia
$1.1T
Middle East
$30B
Others
$151B
2TAlmost
Source: International Renewable Energy Agency, Untapped potential for climate action: Renewable energy in Nationally Determin ed Contributions, November 2017.
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F or illustrative purposes only.The specific companies identified and described above do not represent all of the companies purchased or sold, and no assumptions should be made that the companies identified and discussed were or will be profitable. For top 10 holdings please see back of presentation.
MegaRule #2: Connect the value chain
For illustrative purposes only.
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Emerging global wealth
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A billion people here, a billion people there…
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Source: 1 Yahoo Finance, “Billionaires Insight” report from UBS and PWC. 2 Bank of America Merrill Lynch “10 things for the next 10 years.” 3 Washington Post, “India is no longer home to the largest number of poor people in the world. Nigeria is.”
China mints billionaires per week.12
150M people enter the global middle class every year, of which
90% are from Asia.2people escape extreme poverty in India every minute.344
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Online Population: 292M 772M
Offline Population: 35M 628M
MegaRule #3: Think beyond borders
China’s vast digital potentialOnline vs. offline population in China compared to the United States in 2018
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Source: Circle ID, July 2018.
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http://www.circleid.com/posts/20180710_china_has_nearly_3_times_the_number_of_internet_users_as_the_us/
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Owning the future
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Technological breakthrough
Robotics & A.I.CybersecurityFinTech
Demographics & social change
GenomicsImmunotherapyAgeing
Climate change & resource scarcity
Clean energyElectric vehiclesSelf-driving
Emerging global wealth
China & IndiaNew consumersDigital economy
Rapid urbanization
InfrastructureMegacitiesSmart cities
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MegaRules of the road
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1 Weight for tomorrow
2 Connect the value chain
3 Think beyond borders
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Put your money where your mind is…
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Important Information
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