Overview UNFCCC negotiations - Tamale - Doolan
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Transcript of Overview UNFCCC negotiations - Tamale - Doolan
Climate Change Negotiations From Bali to Copenhagen via Accra & Tamale– Ghana has a stake & influence
Sean Doolan
NL Embassy, DFID Ghana
Voice & Vision on Climate ChangeSEND Ghana, Tamale27-28 August 2009
What does “climate change” mean?
… for “poverty”, “development”… & Ghana?
Climate & human development
Reaching tipping points – Productivity & food/water security– Humanitarian & disaster risk reduction– GDP impacts, energy– Health implications
Not just extreme shocks– Eroding coping capacity – Protecting past & current progress on human development & growth – Preventing reversal in positive trajectory– Vulnerable groups & regions
Climate change negotiations ongoing
Post-2012 framework negotiations - UNFCCC• Bali 2007 to Copenhagen 2009• Fast-moving, fragmented, overload
Implications of CC for development• Adaptation (how cope & reduce risk?)• Mitigation (how prevent? adapt energy? link to carbon markets)• Action at country & regional levels
Low income countries?
Views differ
Perceptions matter
High income countries?
Climate change & disaster risk responses
Significant governance challenges• Who is involved - top-down, bottom-up?• National & sector levels, Institutional structure?• How strategies are crafted – what content?
Multiple stakeholders• MDAs, MoFEP, Castle• Different sector groups, local government• Civil society, academia, industry
Barriers
• Financial downturn – political & economic distraction
• Too much pressure on developing countries• Too many meetings• Strategic interests• Uncertainty on best strategies• Institutional patchwork• Fragmentation
Prospects for Copenhagen
• Need political momentum & equity• Need mandate for country negotiators &
politicians• Quantified targets by industrialised countries• General framings of key issues: technology,
REDD, adaptation, financing→ Framework deal→ Discussions on modalities over next 3 years
Big picture 1?
Sub-national
National
Sub-regional
Regional
Global
Community
Household
UNFCCC
African Group & negot’ns
Adaptation Fund Board
Technology transfer
REDD
Forest Carbon Facility
Disaster risk reduction
UNDP – GEF
Africa Adapt ProgEconomics of AdaptationUNFCCC NEEDS study
Carbon finance
Gas flaring
CARE Adapt Learning
Food & agriculture
Public
Big picture 2?
Health
Private Civil society
Finance & Economic Planning
Environment, Science &
Technology
Nat CC committee
Env & NR Council
Technical officials, civil society
Ministers, VP
EnergyForestry
EPA
Civil society
Nat Dev Planning Comm’sn
Met Agency
Foreign Affairs
REDD committee
Informed ability to engage
• How attract interest of politicians?– Need informed ability to engage– Economics (what value, costs?)– Scale (extent, number of voters)
• Towards wider “programmatic approaches”?– Financing mechanisms & country systems -
scale– Allocations & trade-offs across sectors– How integrate into sectoral & national plans &
response?– Carbon markets
• Institutional frameworks & dynamics• Capacity & training
Bali Roadmap
Two negotiation tracks• UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change• Kyoto Protocol
Bali Action Plan 2007
• Shared vision, including long term goal • Mitigation- developed & developing
countries• Adaptation• Technology to support Mitigation &
Adaptation• Finance to support Mitigation & Adaptation
13
International climate change negotiations
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
G8: Germany Japan Italy Canada
Major Economies Meeting
UNFCCC: COP 12 COP 13 COP 14 COP 15 Nairobi Indonesia Poland Denmark
Convention Dialogue
New Kyoto targets for developed Countries –Ad hoc Working Group KP
BALI ROADMAP
Accelerated work plan:
•Convention Negotiations: AWG Long-term Coop Action
•New Kyoto targets for developed countries: AWG Kyoto Protocol
Deal on global &
comprehensive post-2012 framework
UN GA4th AR IPCC UN GA
Other “near-negotiations”: UN HLE, AU, AMCEN, Fin4Dev, APF, V10, APEC, G20, OECD, WTO, IEA …
Major Economies
Forum
EU: Portugal Slovenia France Czech Sweden Spain Belgium
Current status & Parties’ positions
Critical fault lines • Who does what? Who wants what?• All text options now on negotiations table
Key questions• Legal form (binding or not)• Annex I targets• Developing country actions (& support)• Rules & methodologies on how targets/actions are
achieved e.g. role of market-mechanisms (carbon markets),
REDD, financing, technology transfer, Clean Development Mechanism …
Post-2012 deal - five development tests
1. Ambitious goal with credible near-term targets2. A way of sharing greenhouse gas emissions
that is fair & equitable3. Support for technology development &
transfer to benefit developing countries4. Reformed carbon market to increase reach &
impact of carbon finance for poor countries5. Support for developing countries to build
resilience & adapt to climate change
Actors
Major country coalitions– European Union– Umbrella Group– G-77 & China
• AOSIS (small island states)• LDCs• African Group• OPEC members
Non-governmental: over 600 observers– Environmental & development NGOs– Business NGOs– Research NGOs– Local & municipal authorities– Indigenous peoples & organisations
Actors
Env NGOs– Coordinator: Climate Action Network
Business INGOs– Coordinator: International Chamber of
Commerce– Major alliance: World Business Council for
Sustainable Development
Major issues & bloc positions
Mitigation– New emissions targets by developed
countries– Actions by developing countries– Forests: REDD; sustainable forest
management– Emissions trading– Sectoral approaches– Emissions from aviation and ships
Response to climate change must be rooted in development
Development
Mitigation Adaptation
Climate-compatible
development
Climate-proofed
abatement
Climate-resilient
Low-carbon
… but aligned with mitigation & adaptation objectives
South Africa’s vision on climate change
Source: Dept of Environment and Tourism, South Africa
• Transition to climate resilient and low-carbon economy • Our climate response policy, built on six pillars, will be
informed by what is required by science – to limit global temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels
• Continue to pro-actively build the knowledge base and our capacity to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change
• GHG emissions must peak, plateau and decline - stop growing at the latest by 2020-2025, stabilise for up to ten years, then decline in absolute terms
• Long term: redefine our competitive advantage and structurally transform the economy by shifting from an energy-intensive to a climate-friendly path as part of a pro-growth, pro-development and pro-jobs strategy
Adaptation
• Methodology / Assessment: vulnerability, financial needs, capacity-building
• Impact focus: Risk management and risk reduction strategies; Disaster reduction strategies
• Vulnerability focus: poverty eradication; building response capacity; economic diversification
• Integration into national planning• Financing: UNFCCC as facilitator; damage costs?
Technology
• Support of deployment & transfer• Removal of barriers (e.g. subsidies)• Creating favourable investment climates• R&D cooperation• Sectoral focus• Clean Development Mechanism reform• Funding
Finance
• New & additional resources• Positive incentives for developing countries
to mitigate & adapt• Mobilization of public- & private sector
funding• One funding mechanism for mitigation &
adaptation?
Stabilisation & change in temperature – limit to 2oC average global rise
1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C
400 ppm CO2e
450 ppm CO2e
550 ppm CO2e
650ppm CO2e
750ppm CO2e
5% 95%
Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
0°C
Emissions need to be cut from several sources – not just power generation
Four ways to cut:• demand
• efficiency
• lower-carbon technologies
• non-energy emissions
Ghana capacity as carbon sink
1996, Ghana a net GHG sink but… 1996, not 2009
12,388 12,267
12,673
14,004 13,99914,265
14,878
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
CO
2 EQ
UIV
ALE
NT
EMIS
SIO
NS
(Gg)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
YEAR
Without LUCF
-20,417 -21,191
-15,585
-8,806
-5,411 -5,971-4,082
-26,000
-21,000
-16,000
-11,000
-6,000
-1,000
NET
CO
2 EQ
UIV
ALE
NT
EMIS
SIO
NS
(Gg)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
YEAR
Net, with Land Use Change & Forestry (LUCF)
Development & adaptation: a continuum
Vulnerability ImpactsFocus
Addressing drivers of
vulnerability
Building response capacity
Climate risk management
Confronting climate change
Development assistance UNFCCC
International funding
Uncertainty, lack of awareness RiskKnowledge of climate change
Approach Discrete adaptation Climate resilient development
Major UNFCCC provisions
Chief objectiveArt. 2:
• stabilize greenhouse gas emissions• prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climate system
Principles– Art. 3(1):
• Equity; ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and capbilities’
– Art. 3(3)• Precautionary principle
– Art. 3(4)• Sustainable development