Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics

Brian Smith

Lab Program Manager, Wind & Water Power Technologies

[email protected]

May 18, 2010

National Rural Electric Cooperative Association

Visit to NWTC

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy FutureNational Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

National Wind Technology Center Overview

NPS 1.5MW Direct Drive Generator

• Turbine testing since 1977• Leader in development of

design and analysis codes• Pioneers in component testing• Unique test facilities

• Blade Testing• Dynamometer• CART turbines

• Modern utility-scale turbines• Approx. 130 staff on-site• Budget approx. $40M• Many CRADAs with industry• Leadership roles for

international standards• Lead Lab for DOE Marine

Hydrokinetic Technology Development

Blade Test Facility

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Global Wind Energy Boom Continues – Up 31%

Source: GWEC and EWEA websites

Global Facts

• 37.5 GW added in 2009• 158 GW total• China added 13 GW, double 2008• Wind now ~1.7% of world electricity production• European offshore wind grew 54%

– 2,056 MW total– 38 offshore wind farms– 828 wind turbines

• 158 GW– Produces ~340 TWh of clean electricity/year– Saves ~240 million tons of CO2 /year


U.S. Wind Industry Breaks Records – over 10 GW

Source: AWEA US Wind Industry Annual Market Report – Year Ending 2009

US Facts• 35.1 GW total, 1.8% of US power in 2009• World leader in installed capacity• 39% capacity growth in 2009• 14 states over 1 GW, 36 states utility-scale

wind project• 39 manufacturing facilities new,

announced or expanded, 85,000 jobs in all 50 states

• 35.2 GW– Saves ~62 million tons of CO2 /year– Equivalent to ~10.5 million cars off the road– Conserve ~20 billion gallons of water/year

U.S. Annual and Cumulative Wind Power Installations

Cumulative Wind Capacity by State


1 GW of New Wind Yields…

1.8 M metric tons of carbon avoided annually

1.2 M tons of coal / 20.9 Bcf natural gas saved annually

3.2 M MWh of electricity generated annually

1000 construction jobs, 200 long-term

operations & supply chain jobs

$3 M in land-lease payments, $7.2 M in property taxes annually

1.3 B gallons of water saved

annually

Deployment of wind power yields substantial benefits in renewable electricity generation, carbon reduction, and jobs creation

Source: NREL Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) model.


20% Wind Report Guides NREL Wind Strategy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity (G

W)

OffshoreLand-based

Actual

20% Wind Scenario


Critical Elements for 20% Scenario Improved Performance

– 10% reduction in capital cost– 15% increase in capacity factor– Address Wind Farm underperformance

Mitigate Risk– Reduce O&M costs by 35%– Foster the confidence to support continued

20% per year growth in installation rates from now until 2018

Enhanced Transmission System (AEP)– $60 billion cost estimate over 20 yrs– 19,000 mi of line– Supports 200-400 GW addition

Policy, Communication & OutreachInfrastructure Development


New NREL - AWS Truepower map estimates land-based wind resource potential

NREL validation of 200-m resolution wind resource estimates fromAWS Truepower Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) model

• Mapped new wind resource estimates for 80-m & 100-m hub-heights

• Provided new estimates of Wind Land and Wind Energy Potential by State in Areas >= 30%

• National and State-Level Maps Available

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/wind_maps.asp

http://www.awstruewind.com/windpotential.cfm






Technology Evolution


• 2.5 MW - typical commercial turbine Installation

• 5.0 MW prototypes being installed for testing in Europe

• Many manufacturers have a 10 MW machine in design

• Large turbine development programs targeting offshore markets

• Hardware development outpacing test & validation capability

Technology Development Today

Boeing 747-400


Increasing Installed Costs (Land-based)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009(e)

6 27 13 26 11 28 23 31 61 28

49 1,653 401 1,533 227 1,795 1,820 3,597 6,125 3,682

Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

Individual Project Cost

Polynomial Trend Line

Vintage:

Projects:

MW:

Inst

alle

d P

roje

ct C

ost (

2008

$/k

W)

Sample includes 226 online projects totaling 17.2 GWand 28 projects in development totaling 3.7 GW

Project costs appear to have bottomed out in 2001-2004, and have risen by $630/kW through 2008 ($825/kW through 2009)

Source: Wiser / LBNL


Increasing Wind Power Prices (Land-based)

Wind power prices bottomed out with projects built in 2002-03Sample built in 2008 is ~$15-20/MWh higher on average

Source: Wiser / LBNL


Capacity Factor vs. Wind Resource Classification

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Wind Resource Class, 50m

Wei

ghte

d A

vera

ge C

apac

ity F

acto

r

2005-20072002-20041998-2001Log. (2002-2004)Log. (2005-2007)Log. (1998-2001)

Capacity Factor Improvements

Capacity Factor Increases Within Fixed Wind Resource Regimes at 50mSource: Wiser / LBNL


Multi-MW Turbines installed at NWT

Siemens 2.3 MW

DOE 1.5 MWDOE 1.5 MW GE Turbine• Model: GE 1.5SLE• Tower Height: 80 m• Rotor Diameter: 77 m• DOE owned; to be used for research and education• Turbine Completion Certificate: 28 Sep 09• Continuous Operation Permission: 21 Dec 09

Siemens 2.3 MW Turbine• Model: SWT-2.3-101• Tower Height: 80 m• Rotor Diameter: 101 m• Siemens owned and operated• Multi-year R&D CRADA; aerodynamics and rotor performance• Turbine Commissioning and Ceremony Completed in Oct 09

RES Americas:• Partnered on turbine foundations, installation & erection of 1.5 MW

turbine, and R&D on turbine foundation loads measurement & optimization


Siemens Wind Turbine Installation Time Lapse


Dynamometer Testing

Dynamometer Upgrade

• Power up to 5 MW• Shaft Loads• Complete 2012


Advanced Drivetrain R&D

Today

Tomorrow

GEC

NPS


Blade Testing Facilities

New Large Blade Test Facility:• Boston, MA with Massachusetts

Technology Collaborative • Static and Fatigue tests of blades up to

90 m• NREL staff to operate facility

• NREL has developed and patented advanced blade testing

• NREL supports R&D blade testing for DOE and industry

• Supporting development of new blade test facilities worldwide


Small Wind Independent Testing

Tests Completed• Mariah Windspire: Testing terminated due to turbine problems. Power performance, duration,

safety and function reports completed.• ARE 442: Testing completed December 2009. Power performance, duration, safety and function,

and acoustic noise tests completed.

Testing In Progress• Gaia 11-kW – Field testing completed in March 2010, post duration test inspection underway • Entegrity EW50 – Unusually low wind speeds at site prevented completion of duration testing (50%

complete)• Ventera VT10 – Turbine installation in January 2010; testing to begin in April

Progress and results are publicly available on the NREL website including test reports: http://www.nrel.gov/wind/smallwind/independent_testing.html

Independent Testing Project increases consumer confidence through standards and certification


Marine Renewable Energy Sources

Offshore Wind in Shallow Water Offshore Wind Energy in Deepwater

Tidal Currents River CurrentsWave Energy


Many Coastal Load Centers Cannot Be Served by Land-based Renewable Resources

Graphic Credit: Bruce Bailey AWS Truewind

Why Marine Renewables?

US Population Concentration U.S. Wind Resource

28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity in U.S.

Renewable Energy Goals Cannot be Achieved Without Offshore Contributions


Constrained land use Better wind resources

Reduced turbulence – steadier wind Higher wind = better energy production Higher capacity factors – load matching

Minimize visual impacts with greater distances. Proximity to load centers

Lower transmission constraints Serve high cost regions Exploits indigenous energy

Avoids size limits Shipping – Land-based roadway limits Erection – crane limits Larger machines are more economical.

Rationale for Offshore Wind


Shallow water 0-30m depth2 – 5 MW upwind rotor configurations70+ meter tower height on monopoles and gravity basesMature submarine power cableExisting oil and gas experience is essentialReliability problems and turbine shortages discouraged early development. Costs are not established in US

Offshore Wind Turbine Technology



1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 $-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

Estim

ated

Cap

ital C

ost (

2008

Dol

lars

per

kW

)

Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

Announced Cost for Proposed European Project*

Announced Cost for Proposed U.S. Project*

Installed Cost for Operating European Project*

Offshore Wind Project Costs Over Time


Shallow Water

Transitional Depth

Deepwater Floating

0m-30m430-GW

30m-60m541-GW 60m-900m

1533-GW

Land-based

No exclusions assumed for resource estimates

CommerciallyProven

TechnologyEstimated US Resource

DemonstrationPhase

Offshore Wind Turbine Foundations



Image Credit: www.greenlaunches.com

• R&D Project developed by StatoilHydro, and Siemens

• 12 km southeast of Karmøy in Norway

• SWT - 2.3 MW architecture 82 meter diameter 65 meter tower

• Spar buoy technology 100 meter draft 202 meter water depth

Reference: w1.siemens.com

World’s First Floating Wind TurbineSiemens SWT-2.3 MW Hywind

http://www.greenlaunches.com/


Two Basic Forms of Marine Hydrokinetic Energy

CURRENTS• Activating force flows in same

direction for at least a few hours• Tidal ranges are larger in northern

latitudes• Tidal, river, and ocean variants• Conversion technology is some sort

of submerged turbine

WAVES• Activating force reverses direction

every 5 to 20 seconds• Waves are larger in the northern

latitudes and west coasts.• Conversion technology can be

floating or submerged, with a wide variety of devices


Tidal Current Turbine ExamplesMarine Current Turbines (axial flow, open rotor)

GCK (cross flow, Gorlov helical rotor)

Open Hydro (axial flow, open rotor, rim-drive)

Lunar Energy (axial flow, shrouded single-rotor)

SeaPower (cross flow, Savonius rotor)

SMD Hydrovision (axial flow, open rotor)

UEK (axial flow, shrouded twin-rotor)

Verdant Power (axial flow, open rotor)

Ocean Renewable Power Company (cross flow)

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

Brian SmithLab Program ManagerWind & Water Power TechnologiesNational Wind Technology Center

Contact Information:Phone: 303-384-6911Email: [email protected]

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Overview of Wind Technology Status and Economics

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