Overview of Transport Sector &

Barriers and Opportunities

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Hediye TÜYDEŞ YAMAN, Senior Transport ExpertDoç. Dr. Hediye Tüydeş Yaman, Ulaştırma Uzmanı

Res. Asst. Gülçin DALKIÇ, Junior Transport ExpertArş. Gör., Ulaştırma Uzmanı

Technical Assistance for Developed Analytical Basis for

Formulating Strategies and Actions towards

Low Carbon Development

15 Kasım 2018, Holiday Inn Hotel, Ankara

Total Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions by Sector

Sources: EEA, Turkey Energy Report, 2016

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Modal shares and CO2 emissions by transport systems

Passenger and Freight Transportation Modal Shares (2010)

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Modal shares and CO2 emissions by transport systems

Changes of the CO2 Emissions in the sub-sectors in the Transportation Sector (1990-2013)

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Turkey: Freight and Passenger Transportation Modal Shares

Sources: Climate Change National Action Plan, 2011-2020

Freight Transportation Modal Ton-km for 1990-2008 Passenger Transportation Volumes Shares for 1990-2005

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Plans/ Documents Covered in Component I

• Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Stratejisi (2010-2023)

• İklim Değişikliği Ulusal Eylem Planı (2011-2023)

• Türkiye İklim Değişikliği 6. Ulusal Bildirimi

• Türkiye’nin İklim Değişikliği Uyum Stratejisi ve Eylem Planı

• UDHB Stratejik Plan 2017-2021

• Enerji Verimliliği Strateji Dokümanı 2012-2023

• Ulaşımda Enerji Verimliliğinin Artırılmasına İlişkin Yönetmelik

• Ulusal Akıllı Ulaşım Sistemleri Strateji Belgesi (2014-2023) ve Eylem Planı (2014-2016)

• Enerji Sektöründe Sera Gazı Azaltımı Çalışma Grubu Raporu

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Future Expectations and Targets

Sources: EEA, Energy Policies, 2016; Republic of Turkey, 2015.

Total GHG Emissions, 2010-2030Toplam Sera Gazı Emisyonları, 2010-2030

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Future Expectations and Targets related to Carbon Emissions

Road Transport Sector

• Reaching a total of 37000 km divided roads including 8000 kmmotorway length.

• Connecting Black Sea region with South East and Mediterranean regions with high quality roads.

Railway Transport Sector

• Reaching a total of 25000 km rail length.

• Renovation of 4400 km railway track

• Completion of liberalization process.

1. OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR IN TURKEY

Airway Sector

• Increasing the passenger capacity of airports to 450 million passengers/year.

Maritime Sector

• Harmonizing the Transport Coastal Structures Master Plan and Integrated Coastal Zone Planning

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Legislative

Barriers

• Lack of specific targets especially quantitative measures in policy documents

• Existence of controversial objectives

• Lack of budget planning in documents

Opportunities

Availability of adopted EU policy documents

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Political

Barriers

• Insufficient alignment of numerous policy documents

• Very vague definition of objectives, targets, and actions/ measures

• Lack of measurable, reportable and verifiable indicators.

• Lack of ex-ante evaluation of the eventual environmental effect of the identified policies, measures and actions.

Opportunities

Gradual harmonization with relevant EU legal base

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Institutional:

Barriers

• Coordination problems among institutions

• Lack of efficient data collection and management systems about emissions from

transport

Opportunities

Harmonization and improvement of data management procedures including data

collection, processing, registration and storing.

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Human Capacity:

Barriers

• Low skills in the institutional bodies

Opportunities

Development of awareness raising actions and projects

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Economic:

Barriers

• The growing Turkish economy

• Structure of Turkey’s economy

• Airway intensive tourism sector

Opportunities

Alternative low carbon modes for freight transportation

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Financial:

Barriers

• Taxation policy

• Liberalization of railway sector

Opportunities

Potential change in the heavy dependence on the imported energy resources

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Social:

Barriers

• Increase in population

• Migration from rural areas to cities and fast urbanization:

• Mentality behind private car preference

• Public perception on airway transportation

Opportunities

Opportunity to shift from cars to public transport

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Technological:

Barriers

• Current inefficient road and rail infrastructure

Opportunities

Reorganizing railway sector and infrastructure

Developing intermodal and combined transportation

Deployment of Intelligent Transportation Systems(ITS)

Potential for developing vehicle and fuel technologies

Big data applications

2. BARRIERS AND OPPORTUNITIES (B&O‘s) IN TRANSPORT SECTOR

Conclusions:

• Technological innovations, building institutional capacity and raising awareness of the society most effective and efficient tools to start practical works for decarbonisation

• In short to medium term actions will pave the path towards challenging changes.

• Modal shift– from road and aviation to rail, maritime and intermodal

– significant reduction in transport emissions

• In urban areas– promotion and persistent development of public transport services on the

account of individual modes

3. FUTURE POTENTIALS

• Transport Priority Areas for a Low Carbon Development in TurkeyTable 6. Transport Priority Areas for a Low Carbon Development in Turkey

Transport system Passenger (Pax) Freight (F)

Urban Intercity Int’l Urban Intercity Int’l

Highway (H) (?) (?)

Rail (R) (?)

Air(A) (?) (?)

Sea/Maritime(M) (?) (?) (?)

3. FUTURE POTENTIALS

• Considering share in emissions and data availability, potential action areasTable 6. Transport Priority Areas for a Low Carbon Development in Turkey

Transport system Passenger (Pax) Freight (F)

Urban Intercity Int’l Urban Intercity Int’l

Highway (H) (?) (?)

Rail (R) (?)

Air(A) (?) (?)

Sea/Maritime(M) (?) (?) (?)

3. FUTURE POTENTIALS

In passenger transportation (intercity)

• Support for “shared ride” modes

– rail (conventional or HSR) and intercity bus services,

– Modernization/integration to increase their shares

• HSR services, to increase emission reduction performance

– if new HSR lines can create a network effect

– Energy source for electricity can be from low-carbon solutions

– Supplementary policies to increase demand (different pricing, combined transportation bus-rail-bus, etc.)

• Maritime transport may not provide enough time savings (and have competitive power against other modes) !!

3. FUTURE POTENTIALS

In freight transportation (intercity)

Difficult to change truck dominancy, but possible actions:

• Efficiency in truck loading can be increased by introducing load sharing initiatives, consolidation centres, etc.

– logistic master plan

• Minimization of the use of old trucks

– introduction of financial incentives for new environmentally friendly trucks.

• Encouraging intermodal transportation between road-rail, rail-maritime, etc.

4. COMPONENT 3- POTENTIAL ACTIONS IN TRANSPORT

Suggested actions for Transport Sector

Selection Criteria

Including in

National Climate

Change Action

Plan (NCCAP)

Cost

Effectiveness

(EUR/tCO2)

Mitigation

Potential

(MtCO2)

Combine transport at intercity transportation ? ?

Increasing share of the electric vehicles especially at public

transport ? ?

At intra city transportation, modal shift from private; to public

transport for trip>2km and to biking or walking for trip <2 km ? ?

ITS for intermodalism demand management

Vehicle fuel efficiency (increasing rates of the Hybrid and LPG and

electrical vehicles) -246* 13.3*

Increasing the use of alternative fuels (bioethanol, biogasoline,

biodiesel) ? ?

Shifting freight transport from road to rail, maritime, domestic

navigation ? ?

* Abatement cost and potential values are taken from, “The Demand for GHG emissions Reductions: An investors’ MACC for Turkey, prepared for EBRD” report.

4. COMPONENT 3- POTENTIAL ACTIONS IN THE MODEL

* Abatement cost and potential values are taken from, “The Demand for GHG emissions Reductions: An investors’ MACC for Turkey, prepared for EBRD” report.

Suggested actions for Transport Sector

Selection Criteria

Including in

National Climate

Change Action

Plan (NCCAP)

Cost Effectiveness

(EUR/tCO2)

Mitigation Potential

(MtCO2)

Combined transport at intercity transportation ? ?

Vehicle fuel efficiency (increasing rates of the Hybrid and LPG and

electrical vehicles) -246* 13.3*

Increasing the use of alternative fuels (bioethanol, biogasoline,

biodiesel) ? ?

Shifting freight transport from road to rail, maritime, domestic

navigation ? ?

????

4. COMPONENT 3- POTENTIAL ACTIONS IN THE MODEL

Modeling and Data Needs

• Intercity Passenger Statistics by Mode (or surveys for profiling)

– Passenger-km; Train-km; Vehicle-km …

– O-D matrices

– Modal Split

– Future HSR network plan and investment cost

– Intercity Bus Transportation plans

– Combined Transportation Goals/Plans

– ….

4. COMPONENT 3- POTENTIAL ACTIONS IN THE MODEL

Modeling and Data Needs

• Intercity Freight Statistics by Mode (or surveys for profiling)

– Truck-km; Ton-km; Train-km;….

– O-D matrices

– Modal Split

– Future rail network plan and investment cost

– Logistic Villages and Master Plan

– Plans for ports

– …

4. COMPONENT 3- POTENTIAL ACTIONS IN THE MODEL

Modeling and Data Needs

• Expert Opinion on…

– Future Scenarios and Plans (regarding timeline of development)

– Missing Data

– Investment Costs

– Operating Costs

– …

Thanks….

Any Questions/Comment ??