Overview of the Orbital Debris Problem - NASALEO Env Projection – the Best Case Scenario (No New...

National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Aeronautics and Space Administration

Overview of the Orbital Debris Problem

J.-C. Liou, PhD

Chief ScientistNASA Orbital Debris Program Office

Small Satellite Conference, Logan, Utah, 10 August 2015

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150019428 2020-02-25T15:33:44+00:00Z

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

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Outline

• An Overview of the Orbital Debris Environment– Historical and current environment– Mitigation and remediation

• The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office and Highlights of Its Recent Activities– Roles and responsibilities– Recent activities


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What is Orbital Debris?

• Orbital debris is any human-made object in orbit about the Earth that no longer serves any useful purpose

10 m 100 m 10 cm 1 m 10 m1 mm 1 cmSize (diameter)

R/Bs, S/C

Breakup Fragments

Mission-related Debris

Al2O3 (slag)Al2O3

Meteoroids

NaK

Paint Flakes MLI Pieces

Orb

ital D

ebris

Objects in the Near-Earth Environment


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How Much Junk is Currently up There?

• Due to high impact speeds in space (~10 km/s in LEO), even sub-millimeter debris pose a realistic threat to human spaceflight and robotic missions 7 km/sec = 25,200 km/hr; 10 km/sec = 36,000 km/hr 1-cm Al sphere @ 10 km/s = 200 kg safe @ 90 mph 5-mm Al sphere @ 7 km/sec could penetrate a 2.54 cm thick Al wall

• Total mass: ~6300 tons LEO-to-GEO (~2700 tons in LEO)

Softball size or larger (≥10 cm): ~23,000(tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, SSN)

Marble size or larger (≥1 cm): ~500,000

Dot or larger (≥1 mm): >100,000,000(a grain of salt)


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The Near-Earth Environment (1957-2014)

• Only objects in the U.S. satellite catalog (~10 cm and larger) are shown• Sizes of the dots are not to scale


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Growth of the Cataloged Populations

FY-1C ASAT Test

Iridium-Cosmos

~1100 are operational

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

100001100012000130001400015000160001700018000

1957

1959

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1971

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1975

1977

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1981

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1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

Num

ber o

f Obj

ects

Year

Monthly Effective Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type

Total Objects

Fragmentation Debris

Spacecraft


Rocket Bodies


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Mass in Space

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1957

1959

1961

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1969

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1977

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2003

2005

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2009

2011

2013

Mas

s in

Orb

it (m

illio

ns o

f kg)

Year

Monthly Mass of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type

Total Objects

Spacecraft

Rocket Bodies

Fragmentation Debris


No sign of slowing down!


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Threat from Orbital Debris

• The threat from orbital debris is real– The gravity-gradient boom of an operational French satellite (CERISE)

was cut in half by a tracked debris in 1996.– The fully operational Iridium 33 was destroyed by a retired Russian

satellite Cosmos 2251 in 2009.– Near the end of the Space Shuttle Program, the Loss of Crew and

Vehicle risks from MMOD impact damage were in the range of 1 in 250 to 1 in 300 per mission (OD to MM ~ 2:1 at ISS altitude).

– The ISS conducted 5 collision avoidance maneuvers (DAMs) against tracked debris in 2014; 3 DAMs and 1 shelter-in-Soyuz so far in 2015.

– Impacts by small, untracked debris could be responsible for many satellite anomalies.• A 17-cm Russian retro reflector, Ball Lens In The Space (BLITS), was damaged

and shed a piece of trackable debris in January 2013.

BLITS CERISE


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LEO Env Projection – the Best Case Scenario(No New Launches Beyond 1/1/2006)

• Collision fragments replace other decaying debris through the next 50 years, keeping the total population approximately constant

• Beyond 2055, the rate of decaying debris decreases, leading to a net increase in the overall satellite population due to collisions

0

2000

4000

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8000

10000

12000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210

Year

Effe

ctiv

e N

umbe

r of O

bjec

ts (>

10cm

, LEO

)

Total

Intacts + mission related debris

Explosion fragments

Collision fragments

(Liou and Johnson, Science, 2006)


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A Realistic Assessment of LEO Environment

• In reality, the situation will be worse than the “no new launches” scenario because global space activities will continue.

• Post-mission disposal (such as a 25-year decay rule) will help, but will be insufficient to prevent the self-generating phenomenon from happening.

• To preserve the near-Earth space for future generations, remediation measures, such as Active Debris Removal (ADR), must be considered.


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Projected LEO Population Growth

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210

Effe

ctiv

e N

umbe

r of O

bjec

ts (≥

10 c

m) i

n LE

O

Year

Reg launches + 0% PMD





LEGEND Simulations* (averages of 100 Monte Carlo runs per scenario)

(*assuming no future explosion)

Historical environment: 1957-2011

Future projection: 2012-2212


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Orbital Debris Environment Management

• “Prevention is better than cure”– (Prov.) It is better to try to keep a bad thing from happening than it is to

fix the bad thing once it has happened

• “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure”– (Prov.) It is better/cheaper to stop something bad happening than it is

to deal with it after it has happened

• Orbital Debris Mitigation = Prevention• Orbital Debris Remediation = Cure

• The global space community must comply with existing mitigation guidelines/requirements and develop long-term remediation strategies to preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations


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The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office


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NASA’s Orbital Debris Research Program

• The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) is the only organization in the US Government conducting a full range of research on orbital debris

– This unique NASA capability was established at JSC in 1979 (D. Kessler, B. Cour-Palais, H. Zook, etc.)

– ODPO’s roles and responsibilities are defined in NPD8700.1 and NPR 8715.6A

– ODPO is currently funded through HQ/OSMA

• Provide technical and policy level support to NASA HQ, OSTP, other U.S. Government agencies and the commercial sector

• ODPO represents the U.S. Government in international fora, including the United Nations and the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC)

• Recognized as world leader in environment definition and modeling and in mitigation policy development


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End-to-End Orbital Debris Activities at ODPO

MeasurementsRadar

OpticalIn-situ

Laboratory

ModelingBreakup

EngineeringEvolutionary

Reentry

Environment ManagementMitigation

RemediationPolicy

Mission Compliance

Risk AssessmentSpace assets

(ISS, Orion, etc)Reentry

CoordinationU.S. Government

IADCUnited Nations

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12000

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150 2170 2190 2210

Year

Effe

ctiv

e N

umbe

r of O

bjec

ts (>

10cm

, LEO

)

TotalIntacts + mission related debris

Explosion fragmentsCollision fragments


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NASA Mission Requirements on Orbital Debris

• NASA was the first organization to lead the development of orbital debris mitigation measures in the 1990s.

• NASA and DoD led the effort to establish the 2001 U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices.– The U.S. National Space Policy of 2006 and 2010 directs agencies

and departments to implement the Standard Practices.

• U.S. has endorsed the United Nations’ Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines.

• In compliance with the above, NASA has establishedNPR 8715.6A, NASA Procedural Requirements for Limiting Orbital Debris, and NS 8719.14, Process for Limiting Orbital Debris for NASA missions.– Formal Orbital Debris Assessment Reports (ODARs) are due to

NASA HQ in conjunction with the PDR and CDR milestones.


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Lab-based Satellite Impact Experiments

• The “DebriSat” project is a collaboration among NASA, the U.S. Air Force, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida for laboratory-based hypervelocity impact experiments on a representative, modern LEO satellite and an upper stage mockup.

• The objective is to characterize the physical properties of impact fragments to improve satellite breakup models and space situational awareness.

X-band Antenna

50 cm

30 cm

Spectrometer

S-band Antenna

UHF/VHF Antenna

Divert Thruster

Optical Imager

Sun Sensor

Multi-Layer Insulation

Composite Body Panels

Deployable Solar Panels

Al alloy strap-on tanks (one on each side)

Stainless steel fuel lines

Al alloy tank

Delta-II Ti roll control thruster assembly


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Hypervelocity Impact Sequences

598 g projectile @ 6.9 km/sec

• Hypervelocity impacts of the two targets were successfully carried out at the Arnold Engineering Development Complex in April 2014.

• Fragment processing and measurements are currently underway.

570 g projectile @ 6.8 km/sec


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Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT)

• NASA, the U.S. Air Force, and the Air Force Research Laboratory are building a new 1.3-m debris telescope to be deployed on Ascension Island.– Completed construction and

acquired first light in June 2015.

– Full operations will start in 2016.

– Telescope autonomously collects data; remotely managed from NASA JSC.

• The low latitude of the site will permit observations of low inclination debris at all altitudes.– Debris as small as 13 cm (0.175

albedo) in GEO should be detectable.

AscensionIsland


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In-Situ Measurements of Small Debris

• NASA, the U.S. Naval Academy, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Virginia Tech, and the University of Kent (Great Britain) are developing new technologies for in-situ measurements of small debris from space.

• A new system, Debris Resistive/Acoustic Grid Orbital Navy-NASA Sensor (DRAGONS), has been approved by the International Space Station (ISS) Program for a February 2017 deployment on the ISS.

• DRAGONS combines several particle impact detection principles to measure time, location, speed, direction, energy, and the size of each impacting particle to improve the environment definition for the millimeter and smaller debris population..

Planned locationfor DRAGONS


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