Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource...

Overview of the CAPRI-RD projectOctober 2010

Wolfgang BritzInstitute for Food and Resource Economics

University Bonn

Kaley Hart

Institute for European Environmental Policy London

The CAPRI-RD project, an Overview – W. Britz and K. Hart

Presentation Overview

Project overview

Introduction to CAPRI

Aims and objectives of CAPRI-RD

The CAPRI-RD model

Promotion and Training

Example applications

Audience

Current status


Purpose of Study

Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised ImpactRural Development

To maintain and develop the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact model as an important tool for agricultural

policy impact analysis.

To extend and apply the model to cover the wider impacts of rural development policy

The project

Seventh Framework Programme (FPVII) Project Project spans 4 years, from March 2009 to March 2013 €2.3 million in EU contributions 11 Partners – combining economic modelling and policy

experts Scientific officer: Hans-Jörg Lutzeyer (DG RTD) Co-ordinator: Wolfgang Britz (University of Bonn)


Project partners

Country Organisation

GermanyUniversity of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics (UBO), and;Von Thuenen Institute, Braunschweig (VTI)

Italy Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra (JRC-IES)

The Netherlands Landbouw-Economisch Instituut, The Hague (LEI)

Turkey Middle East Technical University, Ankara (METU)

Spain Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville (JRC-IPTS)

Finland University of Helsinki, Ruralia Institute (RURALIA)

Slovenia University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical faculty, Chair for Agricultural Economics, Policy and Law (UL)

United KingdomInstitute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP), and; Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of Gloucestershire (CCRI)

Sweden Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

What is CAPRI?

Developed since 1997 with EU support Allows analysis of: market policies; premium systems; quotas;

set-aside regimes; environmental policies; etc. Regarding: global scale supply, demand and trade; EU farm

income and management; environmental indicators; prices; budgets …

Has been applied:• to a range of different CAP reform scenarios (Agenda 2000, MTR, Sugar

Market, Dairy, Health Check)• to other policy questions (WTO, bi-lateral trade agreements, standards

or tradable permits for GHG emissions, …)

“Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact” a “multi-purpose” economic modelling system for EU’s agriculture

Aims of CAPRI-RD

“To allow forward looking (ex-ante) impact assessment of CAP Pillars I and II and other policies targeting agriculture in rural regions.”

To extend CAPRI to allow for analysis of rural development (Pillar II) measures for agricultural and non-agricultural activities

Integration of databases on Pillar II expenditure and modelling impact assessment in rural areas

Compiling results through indicators aligned as far as possible with the CMEF and fully integrated into the model



Objectives of CAPRI-RD project

To build an open source harmonised impact assessment tool for CAP pillars and II• By extending CAPRI• For EU, candidate and potential candidate countries, at

NUTS 2 regional resolution • Focussing on agriculture and related economic activities• Complementing other approaches for evaluating CAP

measuresTo apply the tool on real world policy questions

• Annual market outlook• Annual policy impact assessment of scenarios defined by

stakeholders, e.g. CAP post 2013 scenarios


The CAPRI-RD tool

Pillar II also targets the non-agricultural sector:=> CAPRI-RD requires economic models for other sectors

=> BioEconomic modelling chain within CAPRI-RD:


The CAPRI-RD project

The CAPRI-RD project thus includes the:Development of a layer of regional CGEs

sequentially linked to regional supply models of CAPRI:• Social Accounting Matrices at national/regional level• Development of a suitable CGE template model

Development of indicators for impact assessment:• Drawing wherever possible on the CMEF indicators• Based on results simulated with the CAPRI-RD tool• Calculated at an appropriate scale, with the ability to

upscale to a higher level


Spatial downscaling

This allows spatially explicit investigation of environmental impacts

1km2 grid cells can be upscaled to show the effect of policy scenarios on target indicators

Indicator calculators are aligned with the CMEF

CAPRI-RD generates outputs that are can be exploited through the GUI, including graphs, tables and maps

Results generated at the farm type, NUTS 2, Country and global regions including EU level

CAPRI-RD can break down land use, yields and input use results to clusters of 1km2 grid cells


CAPRI-RD Tool Overview


Maintenance and Review

Regular database updates(current 2003-2005, 2005-2007 in preparation)

Regular integration of recent market outlooks(DG-AGRI, AGLINK, FAPRI) into CAPRI baseline (current 2020)

Maintenance and improvement of code base, Graphical User Interface and other software infrastructure

Data quality work (outlier control etc.) Integration of changes in decided / upcoming regulations Review and update of modelling the SFP

Promotion and Training

Annual training sessions for (potential) users CAPRI as an open source product can be downloaded for free Web-site where all deliverables are available and project

progress is documented Conference contributions and publications in scientific journals New GUI to enable ease of use Gathering of feedback to improve usability



Study triggered by a proposal of the German Scientific Board to the Department for Environment(“Sachverständigenrat für Umweltfragen”)

Problem: • Bio-diversity should be promoted everywhere and habitats should be

interconnected • Agri-Environment measures (AEMs) are taken up more in marginal

areas and are struggling to penetrate high-yielding intensive regions Key question: How might biodiversity be promoted across all

farm types in Europe? CAPRI-RD analysed two scenarios to explore how this problem

might be dealt with:1) 10% of land not in HNV/N2K should be devoted to set-aside, or;2) 20% of Pillar I is modulated and transferred to existing AEMs to

increase uptake



Study proposed by the Department for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (Defra) in the UK.

Scenario• To inform the UK position on CAP post 2013• The UK is one of the EU Member States asking for reforms which include

significant shifts in CAP money from Pillar 1 to Pillar II Key question: What are possible consequences of large

reductions in the Single Farm Payment or a WTO compromise? CAPRI-RD modelled three scenarios:

1) Pillar I support completely dismantled(no SFP, no SAPS, no market policy support)

2) A reduction in tariffs, increase in market access tariff rate quotas, no export subsidies

3) Combination of the two


Audience

Stakeholders at the European and national/regional level • e.g. DG-AGRI, DG-ENV, DG-REGIO, the European Environmental Agency, industry, farming groups, environmental stakeholders.

Analysts applying the tool for policy impact work • e.g. DG-JRC, or other research institutions.

New users• researchers / institutions not yet working with CAPRI

Current status

CAPRI-RD tool operational(constant updating and development)• Integration of the most financially significant Pillar II measures into the

CAPRI regional supply models (agri-environment and LFA measures) Already three training sessions (Germany, Finland, UK) – open also to

non-project team members Turkey and Western Balkans integrated in CAPRI Work on regional CGEs ahead of schedule:

• National SAMs available• Data for regional SAMs prepared• Methodology for regional SAM generation approved• Prototype link with CAPRI working

Review of indicators underway First scenario impact analysis sent to DG-AGRI

Thank you for your attention

For more information please see

www.ilr1.uni-bonn.de/Agpo/rsrch/capri-rd/caprird_e.htmor

www.capri-model.org

or [email protected]

Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource...

Documents

Transcript of Overview of the CAPRI-RD project October 2010 Wolfgang Britz Institute for Food and Resource...