Overview of Kingdon Model

Introduction

Kingdon initially did an analysis of four policies at the federal level to identify a model or framework to explain and ultimately predict what will happen. His unstated conclusion is that you cannot predict.

  He used four case studies that although not recent are

still relevant for analysis and noteworthy for how varied are the subjects:

HMO National Health Insurance under Carter Deregulation of transportation (aviation, trucking and

railroads) Waterway user changes

Two Interacting Components Actors Processes or Streams

They are not independent entities but interact with each other

Actors

Executive branch of government

Legislative branch of government

Interest Groups

Executive Branch

There is visibility to many actions

They have Organizational cohesion Resources Access to the public

Executive Branch: Cues

Repitition of the “on point” message To media outlets To legislature From a variety of executive branch

actors/employees

Look for repeated phrases

Staff (part of executive branch) If you ever saw the TV program West Wing

that is a fairly accurate model for staff. Or in the US in 2009-10 think about reaction to the President’s point person: Raul Emmanuel

Staff role not always visible. Many administrations work to keep meetings and activities out of the public eye.

Staff involved in many things such as liaison to capitol hill and legislators

Cabinet (part of executive branch)

Different degrees of power depending first on the cabinet office and then on the person.

Seldom last the full four year term. Influence can be tremendous – think

about the Secretary of Defense being very strong or the Secretary of Health and Human Services not being strong or influential.

Civil Servants/BureaucratsDo not directly influence policy but

have three valuable characteristics:LongevityExpertiseRelationships with many sources such as scientists in the case of healthcare

Iron Triangle

More subtle in terms of visibility but powerful

Operate effectively in conflict situations: Think policy discussions on oil drilling or health care reform

Who is in the Iron Triangle Bureaucrats Committee and committee chairman Interest groups

Legislative Branch - Visible They look for consensus and reaction

of constituents Legal authority Publicity in many forms – think

“sound bites” Blended information from many

sources Friends and constituents Summary documents from their staffers Oral information and documents from

interest groups

Legislative Committee Staffers Expertise (one staffer recently said

she had spent one year on just the healthcare bill)

Invisible except at committee hearing where sit behind the chairman

Hired by the committee chairman Offer information and alternatives to

a particular bill or topic being discussed

Senator or House representative cannot have expertise on every bill that comes up

Committee Chairman

Chairman is a member of the party in power

Selection based on longevity

Some committees more powerful and sought after than others

Chairman can be a significant power broker in legislative decisions

Interest Groups

They are everywhere and often effective

Visibility varies Tag team with others groups

depending on the issue or legislation leading to “strange bedfellows” at times: But it is all about influence

Methods vary: Negative blocking one method

Academics among this group with varying levels of influence depending on the issue

Media

Includes: newsprint, TV and Internet sources

How much influence: some reports suggest limited

People tend to select media outlets that confirm their attitudes or opinions – not seeking new information

Can magnify issues Can communicate issues

Other Interest Groups

One issue groups for example a particular disease such as autism

Professional experts across the political spectrum (examples only) Conservative: American Enterprise Institute,

American Family Association Liberal: Brookings Institute, Commonweal

Institute Centrist: Rand Corporations, Pew Research

Center

Processes or Streams of ActivityAgenda Setting

Problem Recognition

Need to recognize there is a problem which is open to interpretation: see next slide

Multiple sources and forces

Medicine less visible but that has changed with healthcare reform on the front burner

Problem Interpretation

Infant mortalityPoor prenatal careMultiple birthsAge of womenPoverty

ObesityPoor healthcare habitsFood resources such as schools and neighborhoods offer poor nutritional valueLack of exerciseParental oversight limitedLack of knowledge about healthcare and good eating habits

Problem Interpretation

Complexity theory tells us that most problems are not simple

Complexity makes policy difficulty to identify and sell (e.g.the public) and change

Values and interests change

Policy FormulationLegislation

Kingdon writes that “solutions wait for problems.”

Nursing wanted reimbursement – but the connection and legislation was “tagged on”.

Networks made up of a few to many groups may try to soften up an issue or to increase the pressure about problems that will occur if a particular bill is passed or not passed

Survival Criteria

Tolerable cost Value acceptability Anticipated public agreement Technically feasible Reasonable chance for the elected

official to be receptive to the policy

POLITICS

Electoral makeup Pressure groups Bargaining Persuasion Public mood Organization of political forces

It is a Mystery

Well not quite a mystery – there may be more than one stream in operation to move a policy in a particular direction.

The key is their coming together . But often brief and not always predictable.

A Window

Kingdon’s theory is that a window of opportunity suddenly and briefly occurs with a “joining of streams”

Not always predictable

Often random

Unpredictable

A midterm election that changes the majority in the Senate by one seat

The death of an influential member such as Senator Kennedy

A major public event

Citation

Adapted and added to from

Kingdon, J.W. (1995). Agendas, alternatives, and public policies. 2nd ed. NY: Harper Collins College publishers.