Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals
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Transcript of Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals
Overview of Drug Discovery and Pharmaceuticals
Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O
Global Pharma Sales growth in single digits through to 2009
Constrained by payers and providers as they grapple with ageing population
Supported by more cautious/sceptical regulators With increasing patient acceptance of generics Except in areas of specific unmet medical need
supported by evidence based medicine More scrutiny of products pre and post launch US is critical to the success but increasingly
susceptible to cost containment with Medicare
World Pharma Market
10 major markets support growth above 6%
US will continue to dominate but with lower growth
Major driver for growth still volume
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Drug Discovery
Fewer NCEs launched to market!
2004 (30) 2007 (<20) Approx 8000 active products in preclinical to phase IV 1600 oncology products in registration in US 2006,
Phases I-IV GSK (~130) and Sanofi Aventis (~110) hold the largest
number of molecules under R&D Biotechnology accounts for over 25% of the product
pipeline Few blockbusters across therapeutic segments Markets changing towards technological improvements Acquisition of smaller specialist companies Manufacturing forced to tailor their capabilities
*adapted from IMS data 2005
Biological Industry ripe for attack!
Global Biotech Market tops $45billion
Fastest Growing sector Makes up 25% of pharma
R&D portfolio Launch of first EPO
biosimilar June 2007 Pathway to approve
biosimilars launched in the US in June 2007
*Based on 8 Generics Markets(IMS) 0
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Generic Injectable Market, an opportunity
Overall Hospital sector main growth driver from 2005 Generics in Europe capture 60% of branded sales in 6months
for off patent molecules Global Generic Market $45billion European Market expected to boom to $35.9billion by 2013 Western European Injectable Market, €3billion
5 Major Markets - UK 24%, FR 23%, GE 17%, IT & SP11% Largest therapeutic areas, Oncology 29%, infection 26%,
Cardiology 11% Pain 9% Generic Sales will rise at least at 10% per year 80% Rx written generically in the UK Overall generic growth rising at 15% at least twice that of the
branded market Improved regulation speeds product to market and allows
development whilst the patent is still enforced
Major pending Patent Expiry, examples
Oncologics Irinotecan (2009),Gemcitabine (2009), Docetaxol (2009
Biologics EPO (launched 2007), G-CSF (2008/9), Copegus (2009),
Humira (2013), Enbrel (2015) Anti-infectives
Meropenem (May 2009), Moxifloxacin (2014) Anaesthetics
Desflurane (2009), Ropivacaine (2010) Others
Tacrolimus (2009), Quetiapine (2012)
Investment Opportunities
Small molecules Re-Formulation/Re-Packaging Niche Products Hospital Products New proven Technologies Bioequivalence reduced patient numbers Time to market shorter Improved Regulation New line extensions Products withdrawn from the market More flexible Manufacturing available
Types of investments and Listed Successes
Most recent acquisitions in the generics industry… Matrix invested in Focus pharmaceuticals, mainly tablet
generic pharma company for £3.2m, debt & equity(~11%)
Generic Trade sales made by Indian Companies for Distribution routes into Europe and UK
Typical Generic pharma P/E ratios are 20-30x, Hikma plc (LSE) trades at 29x, Teva (NYSE) 20x
Larger pharma acquiring technology and more specialist niche R&D companies
2009 and on….
China moves into top 10 markets Blockbuster numbers growing for niche markets that do
not require mass marketing efforts Expansion of Medicare will bring cost benefit to centre
stage Parallel import trade has slowed in Europe and the USA
but whilst price variation exists there is a possibility of renewed growth, providing there is efficient supply chain management.
Major generics start to cannibalise other brands in class in Europe so all products in class at risk ?
Elegant Science, is it enough?
Payers want clear directional evidence that links cost:benefit to appropriate targets
Providers want clarity and simplicity as well as player endorsement
Patients will want proof that polypharmacy is safe Pharma needs to improve its credibility and tolerate
generics Communication amongst all players will take a
quantum leap of faith!
Overview of Drug Discovery & Pharmaceuticals
Yasmin Crawford, C.E.O