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Climate change and energy: from short-term matters to

long-term challenges –and back

Dr Fabian WagnerInternational Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Kongres ILMU Pengetahuan Nasional XJakarta, 8-9 November 2011

Overview

• Part I (c. 10’)An overview of IIASA

• Part II (c. 20’)Research on Energy and Climate at IIASA

• Challenges, Objectives and Research Themes• Energy Access and Health• Linkages between Climate Change and Air Pollution

• Conclusions

Part I: IIASA

IIASA’s identityFounded in 1972, the International Institute for Applied

Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international research organization that conducts policy-oriented research into problems that are too large or too complex to be solved by a single country or academic discipline:

1. problems like climate change that have a global reach and can be resolved only by international cooperative action, or

2. problems of common concern to many countries that need to be addressed at the national level, such as energy security, population aging, and sustainable development.

IIASA’S MEMBERS: NATIONAL

ACADEMIES

INTERNATIONAL

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INTERDISCIPLINARY

INTERDISCIPLINARY

35%

37%

28% Natural Scientists & EngineersSocial Scientists

Mathematicians and others

Location of IIASALocation of IIASA

Vienna-Schwechat

Airport

HOME OF IIASA SINCE 1972 ……and Nobel prize winnersand Nobel prize winners

Building the next generation of scientistsBuilding the next generation of scientists

Advanced students June – August Work with IIASA

scientists Funded by NMO &

other sources Publication Peccei & Mikhalevich

awards

Many return to IIASA to pursue a research career

Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSPYoung Scientists Summer Program (YSSP))

IIASA postdoctoral Program: Several IIASA funded scholarships per year IIASA postdoctoral Program: Several IIASA funded scholarships per year

RESEARCH FUNDERS & PARTNERS

FUNDING• 50/50 membership

fees and external funds

• EUR 17 million budget• In 2011: 19 national

members and 50+ organizations sponsored IIASA research

PARTNERS• IIASA collaborates

with almost 300 institutions from nearly 40 countries

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Humanity’s major challenges are inextricably linked

Energy & Climate Change

Poverty & Equity

Food & Water

IIASA’s Approach inRESEARCHING GLOBAL CHALLENGES

• Integrated• Interdisciplinary• International • Independent• Solution-oriented• Long term• Trade offs

} = Systems Analysis

RESEARCH FOR A CHANGING WORLD

Energy & Climate Change

Poverty & Equity

Food & Water

Part II:Energy and Climate Change Research at IIASA

Energy & Climate Change

Poverty & Equity

Food & Water

Energy & Climate: Some Challenges

Energy:• Provision of energy to an increasing and wealthier world

population will face multiple serious constraints: – resource availability, energy security, local and regional air pollution, water

demand, capital resources, climate impacts

• Problem is exacerbated by current lack of access to affordable, modern, and clean energy services to 3 billion people

• Investments and energy R&D have declined

Climate:• Stabilization requires global action to be taken soon, while climate

benefits will be felt in the long-run, somewhere on the globe• Fundamental changes in behavior and consumption patterns

would be required for stabilization

Research Objectives

1. Distill near-term characteristics of transformation paths that are necessary for the achievement of long-term targets

2. Identify transformation strategies that are robust against a wide range of development futures

3. Develop tools for the analysis of transition strategies at regional, national, and local scales consistent with the required global transformation

4. Identify solutions and policy instruments that integrate all important economic sectors and consider interactions and feedbacks among these sectors

5. Explore how to overcome institutional obstacles caused by divergent goals and objectives, misaligned economic incentives, and other barriers to innovation and diffusion

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Some Research Themes

• Energy poverty, access and health• Transformation of the Global Energy System to Achieve a Low

Carbon World– Focus: Integrated assessment (bridging of temporal and spatial scales)

• Investing in Energy and R&D– Focus: How to mobilize the required resources for technology diffusion,

adoption, and capacity building (policy mechanisms and financing)?

• Regional air pollution and global climate change– The GAINS co-benefits approach

• Renewable Energy• Vulnerability and Adaptation to climate change• and more…

Energy poverty, access and health

Socio-Economic & Wellbeing Dimensions of Energy PovertyIndia 2005: Who has access to clean energy?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1000 2000 3000 4000

Percentage of users

Mean expenditure by deciles in 2000 PPP $ per capita

Rural LPG Rural electricity Urban LPG Urban electricity

Socio-Economic & Wellbeing Dimensions of Energy PovertyIndia 2030: Health benefits from energy access policies

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

Base 2005 No new policies 2030

20% Fuel Subsidy 2030

50% Fuel Subsidy 2030

Microfinance @15% only

2030

Microfinance @15% + 20% Fuel Subsidy

2030

Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy

2030

Population in Billions Dependent on Solid Fuels

Impact of Alternative Policies on Dependence on Solid Fuels

Fuel subsidies coupled with grants or microfinance schemes that make cheap credit available for the purchase of new stoves are most effective

2030

People gaining access to

modern energy carriers

An additional 200 million without access by 2030

Subsidies alone less than half dependence

Microfinance alone not very effective

Strategies for Universal Energy Access by 2030Present Situation - Investments and Benefits to 2030

Regional TotalRegional Total

LegendLegend

Map (2010)Map (2010)Future investments and health benefits by 2030Future investments and health benefits by 2030

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Links between Climate Change and Air Pollution:

The co-benefits approach

PM (BC, OC)

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Health impacts:PM (Loss in life expectancy)

O3 (Premature mortality)

Vegetation damage:O3 (AOT40/fluxes)

Acidification(Excess of critical loads)

Eutrophication(Excess of critical loads)

Climate impacts:Long-term (GWP100)

() () () () () ()

Near-term forcing () () ()

Carbon depositionto the Arctic and glaciers

The GAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework to assess co-benefits of GHG mitigation

1. Interactions seen from a climate change perspective

IPCC AR4: Focus on the mitigation of long-lived GHGs:

“There are significant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation on human health, crops and ecosystems through lower emissions of air pollutants.”

Results for Annex I parties of UNFCCC, 2020Source: IIASA GAINShttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

2. Interactions seen from an air quality perspective:Well-designed air pollution control strategies can also reduce GHG emissions

Emission control costs for reducing PM health impacts in China by 50%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

Using only airpollution control

measures

Using air pollutioncontrol measures

and GHG measuressimultaneously

Em

issi

on c

ontr

ol c

osts

(%

of G

DP

(PPP

) in

203

0)

PM controls,households

PM end-of-pipe measures

NOx end-of-pipe measures

SO2 end-of-pipe measures

Co-generation

Energy efficiency, industry

Energy efficiency, households

Electricity savings

-8% CO2

Source: GAINS-Asiahttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

Least-cost portfolio of conventional air pollution

control measures

Source: UNEP Black Carbon Assessment, forthcoming 2011

Reference scenario: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

CO2 measures: IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009

Temperature increase in the near-term is determined by:

• CO2 in the atmosphere as a result of historic emissions of CO2

• Change in emissions of short-lived substances, esp. co-control of SO2

(leads to warming)

However, control of long-lived GHGs is unlikely to reduce

temperature increase in the near-term

Global temperature 1900-2070

Source: UNEP Black Carbon Assessment, 2011

Reference scenario IEA World Energy Outlook 2009

CO2 measures IEA 450 ppm scenario 2009

Near-term measuresIIASA set of 16 measures for CH4 and black carbon

CO2 + Near-term measures

Together with aggressive CO2 strategies, they increase chances to stay below the 2º targetGlobal temperature 1900-2070

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Concentrated solar power

2009 EU feed-in tariffs2009 global fossil fuel subsidies

€ 15 billion subsidy€ 425 billion subsidy

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

Annual subsidy (billion

€) € 61 billion total subsidy

15% return on capital

4910%

247%

225%

Williges et al., Energy Policy, 2010

Subsidies required to make Concentrated Solar Power competitive in Northern Africa are relatively small

Damerau et al., Energy Policy, 2011

Renewable technology choices also affect water consumption Conclusions

• IIASA is a top international research institute– Top researchers from all over the world– Broad international membership (academies) on 5 continents– Interdisciplinary– Focussed on global and universal problems:

• Climate and Energy• Food and Water• Poverty and Equity• AND: Drivers, Governance, Methods of Systems Analysis

• Energy and climate research– Integrated modelling approaches– Focus on technologies and consumers – GHG mitigation and co-benefits health, and relation to energy

access, water, etc

www.iiasa.ac.at