OverpopulationOverpopulation

Estimates of Most Populous Countries Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025in 2025

Twelve most populous countries in 2025 (estimated populations in millions)Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*India 358 976 1533 4.3China 555 1255 1516 2.7Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2United States 159 274 347 2.2Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0Brazil 54 165 243 4.5Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8Iran 17 73 170 10.0Mexico 28 96 154 5.5Russia 102 147 114 1.1_______________________________________________________________________Source: Data from World Resources 1996-97, World Resources Institute.

*Ratio 2025 to 1950Ratio* = 2025:1950Ratio* = 2025:1950

Regional Regional Population Population

Distribution for Distribution for People Under People Under

Age 15Age 15

Fertility Rates USAFertility Rates USA

The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life

USASource

www.populationconnection.org/Communications/demfacts.PDF

World

284.5 million Population, Mid 2001 6.1 billion

77 Population per square mile 118

15 Births per 1,000 people 22

9 Deaths per 1,000 people 9

2.1 Total fertility rate 2.8

21 % of pop under age 15 30

13 % of pop over age 65 7

The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life

USA World

49 Births per 1,000 women aged 15-19

50

7.1 Infant deaths per 1,000 live births

56

$29,240 GNP per capita (PPP) $6,300

995 kCal Avg daily per capita calories from animal products

441 kCal

66 Grains fed to livestock as % total grain consumption

3

The Demographics of LifeThe Demographics of Life

USA World

19,674 kg Annual per capita carbon emissions

4,157 kg

5 % energy consumption from renewable sources

14

1 % female labor force in agriculture

52

4 % male labor force in agriculture

46

1,484 Tractor per 1,000 agricultural workers

20

Estimates of Most Populous Countries Estimates of Most Populous Countries in 2025in 2025

Twelve most populous countries in 2025 (estimated populations in millions)Country 1950 1995 2025 Ratio*India 358 976 1533 4.3China 555 1255 1516 2.7Pakistan 39 148 357 9.2United States 159 274 347 2.2Nigeria 33 122 338 10.2Indonesia 80 207 318 4.0Brazil 54 165 243 4.5Bangladesh 42 124 218 5.2Ethiopia 18 62 212 11.8Iran 17 73 170 10.0Mexico 28 96 154 5.5Russia 102 147 114 1.1_______________________________________________________________________Source: Data from World Resources 1996-97, World Resources Institute.

*Ratio 2025 to 1950Ratio* = 2025:1950Ratio* = 2025:1950

World PopulationWorld PopulationWhile demographic transition is occurring in many places, the world population keeps increasing at a rate of about 1.5% to 2% per year.

Doubling times at various compound interest ratesAnnual % Increase Doubling Time (years) 0.1 700 0.5 140 1.0 70 2.0 35 5.0 14 7.5 9 10.0 7 100.0 0.7

So the doubling rate So the doubling rate is between 35 and 46 is between 35 and 46 years!years!

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

What will this mean for the planet?What will this mean for the planet?

Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our Will we alter the human carrying capacity by our impact? impact?

What What cancan we do to help stabilize the world’s we do to help stabilize the world’s population? population?

What What shouldshould we do? we do?

Consumption ComparisonsConsumption Comparisons

One quarter of the global population living in developed countries consumes for 80% of the world’s total energy.

USA alone accounts for 6% of the global population , but consumes 30% of its resources.

20% of the global population consumes 70% of its material resources and possesses 80% of the wealth. The majority of this 20% in centered in Canada, USA, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Japan.

Consumption ComparisonsConsumption Comparisons

A child born today in the United States will by the age of A child born today in the United States will by the age of 75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million 75 years produce 52 tons of garbage, consume 10 million gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born gallons of water and use 5 times the energy of a child born in the developing world. in the developing world.

The United States uses approximately one quarter of the The United States uses approximately one quarter of the world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon world's fossil fuels and is the largest contributor of carbon dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and dioxide, undesirable combustion products, and chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to chlorofluorocarbons, chemicals that contribute to greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield. greenhouse warming and attack the Earth's ozone shield.

Consumption ComparisonsConsumption Comparisons

Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save Increasing the fuel mileage of cars by just 3 mpg would save the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic the same amount of oil that could be tapped from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.National Wildlife Refuge over 10 years.

Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives Every 20 minutes, the world adds another 3,500 human lives but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at but loses one or more entire species of animal or plant life - at least 27,000 species per year. least 27,000 species per year.

Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105 Population is growing faster than food supplies in 64 of 105 developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to developing countries. Overcultivation, primarily due to population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of population pressures, has degraded some 2 billion hectares of arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States arable land - an area the size of Canada and the United States combinedcombined

Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the Globally, the demand for fresh water exceeds the supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the supply by 17 percent already. Two-thirds of the world's population will experience some form of a world's population will experience some form of a severe water shortage in the next 25 years.severe water shortage in the next 25 years.

By 2025, when world population is projected to By 2025, when world population is projected to reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population reach 8 billion, 48 countries with a total population of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25 of 3 billion will face chronic water shortages. In 25 years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of years, humankind could be using over 90 percent of all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for all available freshwater, leaving just 10 percent for the rest of the world's plants and animals.the rest of the world's plants and animals.

Consumption ComparisonsConsumption Comparisons

What is the Carry Capacity of the What is the Carry Capacity of the Planet for Humans?Planet for Humans?

Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2 Paul Erlich – Population Bomb, 1968 – predicted 2 billion. Now at 6 billion.billion. Now at 6 billion.

Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people Julian Simon – there is no problem, more people means more potential technology solutions.means more potential technology solutions.

Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this Some estimate 20 billion will be maximum (at this rate, in your lifetime!!!)rate, in your lifetime!!!)

Solution = balance of population controls and Solution = balance of population controls and consumption controls.consumption controls.

What Should We Do?What Should We Do?