Overcapacity in 2010 Reprot

8/3/2019 Overcapacity in 2010 Reprot

1/12

[email protected] NCSC DRYMARKETOVERCAPACITYREPORT (JAN10 DEC10)

WORLDMERCHANTFLEET

73,841 ACTIVESHIPSOF 1.43 BILLIONTONSCARRYINGCAPACITY

7,142 SHIPSONORDER 421.50 MILLIONDWT

10% OFACTIVEFLEET 29% OFTOTALACTIVECARRYINGCAPACITY

969

SHIPSCANCELLED 65.20 MILLION

DWT

14% OFORDERBOOK 15% OFTOTALORDERBOOKCARRYINGCAPACITY

1,880 FRESHNBORDERS 132.00 MILLIONDWT

2,775 SHIPSSCRAPPED/TL 43.30 MILLIONDWT

NCSC(N.COTZIASSHIPPINGCONSULTANTS) PIRAEUS TEL:+302104222660 PAGE1of12


2/12


TheWorldFleetinservicehasgrownby10.1%intermsofcarryingcapacity,andamounts1.39biltonescomparedto1.26biltonesin2009.

ThelargestyearonyearincreasewasevidencedIntheDryBulksectorwitha15.6%increasethathaspushedtheDrybulkcarryingcapyto

623miltonscomparedto539miltonsin2009.TheTankersectorincreasedby6%andhas514miltonscomparedto484miltonsin2009.The

Containersectorincreasedby7.4%&sums186mildwt,160milGT, 14.2milTEU,comparedto174mildwt,148milGT&13.3milTEUin2009.

TheNewbuildingorderbookhasdecreasedoverallin2010.Thereare5771ships/unitsonorderandthesearescheduledtobedeliveredby

2014.Theseshipsonordercomparedtothe6727shipsthatconstruedtheorderbookoneyearago,are 14.2%intermsofshipsand 7%in

temsofcarryingcapcitydwt.Thetotalcarryingcapacityoftheorderbookamountsto416miltons,andthatis32miltonlessthanlastyear's

totalthatexceeded448miltons.

ThenewbuildingorderbookintheBulkersectordecreasedby7%intermsofshipsor4.6%intermsofdwt,&wehaveatotalof255miltons

ofextracarryingcapacitythatwilljointheactivefleetfromtodayuntil2014.TheTankershipsonorderhavedecreasedby24.8%intermsof

unitsand9%intermsofcarryingcapacity.Thereare1208shipsof113miltonsscheduledtobedelivereduntil2014comparedto16000ships

and124miltonsin2009.TheContainersonorderdecreasedby29.3%intermsofships/unitsand16%Intermsofcarryingcapacity.Theships

onorderamountto560units&thesetotal42milDWT,38milGT,3.65milTEUcomparedto792shipsof50.3milDWT,47.5milGT,4.2milTEU.

Thenewbuildsthatweredeliveredin2010wereintotal3900shipsof149.5miltonsdwt,whilein2009wehadmoreships,4100oflessdwt

119miltonsdwt.The3900shipsdeliveredthisyearonlywere,940Bulkersof73miltons,340GeneralCargoshipsof4mildwtand15Ore

Carriersof4miltonsdwt.690Tankersof43.5miltonsweredeliveredthisyear,while,85LNG/LPGshipsof3.2miltonswerealsodelivered

in2010.260Containersof16.3mildwt14.5milGTand1.4milTEUwerealsodeliveredduring2010.

Shipsscrapped

in

2010

are

as

follows.

1256

ships

of

all

types

totalling

31.3mil

tones

of

dwt.

Of

these

404

are

Bulkers

&

General

Cargo

Ships

of8.4mildwt,338tankersand23GasCarriersof17mildwt,165Containershipsof3miltonsdwt&290,000TEU.Continuingwealsohad43

VehicleCarriersof0.5mildwt,48Reefersof0.4mildwt,and120Roro/Pax/Cruisesships,115Trawlers/Tugs&allothershiptypescrapped

in2010.Comparingthesefigureswith2009,wehad1372shipsofalltypestotalling35miltonsdwt.Ofthese440wereBulkers&GenCargo

of13mildwt,192tankersand29GasCarriersof10.2mildwt,213Containershipsof8miltonsdwt&710,000TEU.Continuingwealsohad103

VehicleCarriersof1.4mildwt,42Reefersof0.4mildwt,and72Roro/Pax/Cruisesships,161Trawlers/Tugs&allothershiptypescrapped

in2009.

BULKERS / SDTANK/

OBO/GAS

CONT/

TWEEN/MPPREEFER

RORO PAX

CRUISE, OTHERVEHICLES CARRIERS TRAWLER TUG OTHER TOTAL YEAR

32.1 Years 28.0 Years 29.3 Years 29.3 Years 35.7 Years 27.3 Years 32.0 Years 30.5 Years 2009

32.5 Years 26.9 Years 29.3 Years 28.5 Years 32.8 Years 28.7 Years 34.6 Years 30.5 Years 2010

WhatisalsoworthnotingisthefactthattheaverageageofallTankersscrappedin2010was26.9yearswhenin2009itwas18years.The

phaseout

period

that

expired

in

2010,

dictated

that

any

single

skin

ship

had

to

be

removed

from

the

active

fleet.

In

the

Bulkers

the

av

age

increasedbynealyhalfayearastheratesenabledoldershipstocontinuetobeemployedandmakerespectabledailyearnings.

NBOrdercancellationshaveincreasedoverallin2010,andwehaverecorded929unitscancelledtotalling68.6miltonsdwt,whilein2009

werecorded482units/shipscancelledof32.5miltonsdwt.Thesecancellations for2010weresplitasfollows:529DryCargoShipsof39.7mil

and184Tankersof14.6miltonsdwt,10GasCarriersof0.5miltonsdwt,&56Containershipsof2.7milDWT,2.56milGTand240,000TEU.

ACTIVEFLEETINSERVICE/MILTONSDWT 2009 2010 NBORDERBOOK 2009 2010

WORLD FLEET 1.3 bi l dw t 1.4 bil dwt 10.1% WORLD FLEET 448 mil dwt 416 mil dwt 7.1%

DRY SECTOR 539 mi l dwt 623 mi l dwt 15.6% DRY SECTOR 267 mil dwt 255 mil dwt 4.5%

TANKER SECTOR 484 mil dwt 514 mil dwt 6.2% TANKER SECTOR 124 mil dwt 113 mil dwt 8.9%

CONTAINER SECTOR 173 mil dwt 186 mil dwt 7.4% CONT SECTOR 50 mil dwt 42 mil dwt 16.1%

NEWBUILDINGDELIVERIES 2009 2010 SCRAPPEDDWT 2009 2010

WORLD FLEET 119 mil dwt 150 mil dwt 25.6% WORLD FLEET 35.0 mil dwt 31.3 mil dwt 10.6%

DRY SECTOR 44 mil dwt 73 mil dwt 65.2% DRY SECTOR 13.0 mil dwt 8.4 mil dwt35.4%

TANKER SECTOR 50 mil dwt 44 mi l dw t 12.1% TANKER SECTOR 10.2 mil dwt 17.0 mil dwt 66.7%

CONTAINER SECTOR 14 mil dwt 16 mil dwt 20.7% CONT SECTOR 8.0 mil dwt 3.0 mil dwt 62.5%

Thenumbersshowedabovethestackedcategorylines,representonthechartonthelefttheexistingactivefleetinshipsandtheoneontherightintotalcarryingcapacityindwt.

AVERAGEAGEOFALLSHIPSSCRAPPED20092010

N.COTZIASSHIPPINGCONSULTANTS WORLDFLEETANALYSIS JAN2010 DEC2010

REPORTSUMMARY OUTLINE

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

VLOC Capesize PostPanamax

Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize SmallBulkers

EXISTINGDRYBULKFLEET+FORECASTEDNBDELIVERIES(ships/units)

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

V LO C Ca pe siz e Po stPanamax

Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize SmallBulkers

EXISTINGDRYBULKFLEET+FORECASTEDNBDELIVERIES

(totaldwtinMilTons)

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

2569

128

183

22

4344

8687

12641739

1046

217

4700

985

3013



3/12


Jan10 Dec10 Jan10 Dec10WORLDACTIVEFLEET UNITS UNITS +/ % DWT DWT +/ %

BULKER 23,448 23,784 336 1.4% 539,103,568 623,160,202 84,056,634 15.6%

TANKER 11,927 12,253 326 2.7% 484,928,053 514,218,643 29,290,590 6.0%

CAR 756 780 24 3.2% 11,212,624 11,896,921 684,297 6.1%

CONTAINER 4,734 4,924 190 4.0% 174,011,523 186,828,354 12,816,831 7.4%

GAS 1,525 1,555 30 2.0% 42,252,157 43,455,516 1,203,359 2.8%REEF 1,112 1,051 61 5.5% 6,110,283 5,937,225 173,058 2.8%

RORO 791 745 46 5.8% 5,702,439 5,338,841 363,598 6.4%TOTAL 44,293 45,092 799 1.8% 1,263,320,647 1,390,835,702 127,515,055 10.1%

BULKERS 15.6%TANKERS 6.0%

CONTAINERS 7.4%

Jan10 Dec10 Jan10 Dec10

WORLDORDERBOOK UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

BULKER 3,973 3,694 279 7.0% 267,177,063 255,010,411 12,166,652 4.6%

TANKER 1,607 1,208 399 24.8% 124,369,230 113,203,152 11,166,078 9.0%

CAR 153 11142

27.5% 2,572,043 1,973,695

598,348

23.3%

CONTAINER 792 560 232 29.3% 50,354,359 42,173,385 8,180,974 16.2%

GAS 136 143 7 5.1% 3,638,830 3,750,531 111,701 3.1%

REEF 12 4 8 66.7% 162,600 37,450 125,150 77.0%

RORO 54 51 3 5.6% 680,191 620,490 59,701 8.8%

TOTAL 6,727 5,771 956 14.2% 448,954,316 416,769,114 32,185,202 7.2%

15.4%

46.6%

WORLDFLEET(Allshiptypes) 5.4%

Active 43,846 1,239,488,425 44,784 1,354,639,545 31.9%

NB Cancellations 482 32,524,361 929 68,616,337 1.2%

NB Orders 7,717 517,703,863 6,007 424,377,430 6.1%

Removals/Scrap/TL/Layups 1,298 34,047,234 1,884 45,170,271 0.7%

TheWorldBulkCarrierFleethasincreaseditscarryingcapacityonayeartoyearcomparisonbyastrong15.6%percentandhasin

December2010atotalaccumulateddwtcapacityof623milliontonscomparedto539oflastJanuary2010.

TheWorldTankerFleethasincreaseditscarryingcapacityonayeartoyearcomparisonby6%percentandhasinDecember2010

totalaccumulateddwtcapacityof514milliontonscomparedto485oflastJanuary2010.

TheWorldContainerFleethasincreaseditstotalcarryingcapacityonayeartoyearcomparisonby7.4%percentandhasinDecembe

2010atotalaccumulateddwtcapacityof187milliontonscomparedto174oflastJanuary2010.

INCREASEINFLEETDWT

Jan10 Dec10

TheNBOrderbookhasbeenreducedby1710vesselswhilethereare929cancellations.Intotaltherehavebeen2800newshipsthathavebeenaddedtotheactive

fleet.Cancellations

of

NB

orders

were

apositive

move,

and

assisted

in

looking

at

asmaller

Order

book.

In

addition

more

orders

for

"fresh"

"newbuilds"

are

placed

andjustwhenwethoughtitwassafetogoout...moretroubleishere...!!!Howevernotallsizesegmentsareposinganalarmingsituation.ForexampletheHandyma

sectoristhesectorwiththemostpotentialforinvestmentasthefleetismainlyold,hasnearlynonewbuildingswaitingtoovercapacitatethesectorandhasan

ageingfleetwithmorethan49%being15yearsandoldersoayoungshiphaslessatstakeinamarketdownfallastheelderunitswillbeaffectedfirst.

TheNewbuildingshipsonorder,underconstructionandProjectedacrossallmajorsectors,consistasatDEC2010of5,771ships,dividedinBulkers,Tankers,

Containers,GasCarriers,RoRo,ReefersandCarCarriers.AtthesametimethesamegroupofNBvesselsinJAN2010 amountedtoslightlymore6,727units,and

therewereatotalof deliveriesofnewships,fromthevastOrderbook,minussomeseriousscrapping,andthephaseoutprocessoftankers,haveincreasedthe

worldactivefleetby799shipsor127milliontons.

CapesincreasedtheirDWTby:

PostPanamaxincreasedtheirDWTby:

PanamaxesincreasedtheirDWTby:

SupramaxesincreasedtheirDWTby:

HandymaxesincreasedtheirDWTby:

HandiesincreasedtheirDWTby:

BulkersdecreasedtheirDWTby:

ThisisaseriousannualincreaseinthesupplyofshipsthatwillaffecttheSupplyandDeman

equilibrium.

N.COTZIASSHIPPINGCONSULTANTS WORLDFLEETANALYSIS JAN2010 DEC2010

WORLDACTIVEFLEET

eact vean nserv ce or pp ng eeto a ma orsectors,asaten o ,cons stso , s ps, v e n u ers, an ers, onta ners, as arr ers,

RoRo,ReefersandCarCarriers.AtthesametimethesamegroupofvesselsinJan2010amountedtoslightlylesstotalof44,293units,andthedeliveriesofnewship

fromthevastOrderbook,minussomeseriousscrapping,andthephaseoutprocessoftankers,haveincreasedtheworldactivefleetby799shipsor127.5million

tons.Theworldactivefleetinallshiptypeshasincreasedbynearly10.1%intermsofcarryingcapacity.Thisisaseriousannualincreaseinthesupplyofships,always

consideringthatdespiteavastnumberofdeliveriestheorderbookhasremainedpracticallyunchanged!!!

23,784,53%

12,253,27% 780,2%

4,924,11%

1,555,3%

1,051,2%

745,2%

ActiveFleetbreakdownperShiptype(UNITS)

BULKER

TANKER

CAR

CONTAINER

GAS

REEF

RORO

623,160,202,

45%

514,218,643,

37%

11,896,921,1%

186,828,354,

14%

43,455,516,3%

5,937,225,0%

5,338,841,0%

ActiveFleetbreakdownperShiptype(DWT)

BULKER

TANKER

CAR

CONTAINER

GAS

REEF

RORO

3,694,64%

1,208,21% 111,2%

560,10%

143,2%

4,0%

51,1%

NewbuildingbreakdownperShiptype(UNITS)

BULKER

TANKER

CAR

CONTAINER

GAS

REEF

RORO

255,010,411,

61%

113,203,152,

27%1,973,695,1%

42,173,385,

10%

3,750,531,1%

37,450,0%

620,490,0%

NewbuildingbreakdownperShiptype(DWT)

BULKER

TANKER

CAR

CONTAINER

GAS

REEF

RORO



4/12


Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/ACTIVEFLEETW OUT

NB'S

ACTIVEFLEET+ALL

VSLSONORDER

VLOC 64 87 36% 11.5 3.0

CAPESIZE 917 1,046 14% 5.4 3.0

POSTPANAMAX 146 217 49% 8.5 3.1

PANAMAX 1,663 1,739 5% 11.8 8.4

SUPRAMAX 969 1,264 30% 4.1 2.5

HANDYMAX 972 985 1% 17.5 17.0

HANDIES 2,870 3,013 5% 16.5 13.7BULKERS 4,633 4,700 1% 18.2 16.1

Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/

VLOC 18,423,866 25,099,791 36%

CAPESIZE 158,766,992 183,244,044 15%

POSTPANAMAX 14,945,798 21,911,114 47%

PANAMAX 121,743,796 128,351,400 5%

SUPRAMAX 52,476,663 69,238,375 32%HANDYMAX 43,869,228 44,413,697 1%

HANDIES 81,203,917 86,183,008 6%

BULKERS 42,486,176 42,788,911 1%

UNITS/SHIPS

Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/ Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/

VLOC 84 85 1% 131% 98% 26%

CAPESIZE 578 415 28% 63% 40% 37%

POSTPANAMAX 265 226 15% 182% 104% 43%

PANAMAX 492 709 44% 30% 41% 38%

SUPRAMAX 860 668 22% 89% 53% 40%

HANDYMAX 16 68 325% 2% 7% 319%

HANDIES 877 78111% 31% 26%

15%

BULKERS 665 50125% 14% 11% 26%

TOTAL 3,837 3,45310%

DWT

Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/ Jan10 Dec10 y2y+/

VLOC 27,502,800 28,527,500 4% 149% 114% 24%

CAPESIZE 105,022,446 76,640,689 27% 66% 42% 37%

POSTPANAMAX 26,864,850 22,942,460 15% 180% 105% 42%

PANAMAX 37,615,946 55,230,338 47% 31% 43% 39%

SUPRAMAX 48,572,569 37,860,700 22% 93% 55% 41%

HANDYMAX 742 ,73 0 3 ,18 0,200 328% 2% 7% 323%

HANDIES 27,363,599 25,029,968 9% 34% 29% 14%

BULKERS 6,479,980 4,796,49626% 15% 11%

27%

TOTAL 280,164,920 254,208,3519%

abovefiguresshowactivefleetpersizesegmentintermsofships/units

DRYBULKFLEETANALYSIS YEARCOMPARISONFROMJAN2010TODEC2010

SUMMARYOFALLDRYBULKSECTORS

ACTIVEFLEETONAYEARONYEARCOMPARISON(SHIPS)

ORDERBOOKONAYEARONYEARCOMPARISON(SHIPS)

ORDERBOOKONAYEARONYEARCOMPARISON(DWT)

ACTIVEFLEETONAYEARONYEARCOMPARISON(DWT)

ACTIVEF

LEETCOMPARISONYEARonYEAR2009

2010

NBORDERBOOKCO

MPARISONYEARonYEAR20092010

NBORDERSAS%OFACTIVEFLEET

NBORDERSAS%OFACTIVEFLEET

AVERAGEAGE(INYEARS)

OrderBookforJAN2010 intotalDWTexpected

AverageAgeRank(inyears)

abovefiguresshowactivefleetpersizesegmentintermsoftotalcarryingcapacity(dwt)

abovefiguresshowallnewvesselsonorderpersizesegmentintermsofcarryingcapacity(dwt)

abovefiguresshowallnewvesselsonorderpersizesegmentintermsofships/units

ActivefleetYeartoYearchange JAN2010 DEC2010intermsoftotaldwtpersizesegment.

OrderBookforDEC2010 intotalDWTexpected

TheDryBulkNewbuildingorderbookhasreleasedmorethan1000vesselsduringthe12monthperiodofouranalysis,meaningallof2010thathaslapsed.Duringthe

sametime

frame,

929

cancellations

have

been

REMOVED

from

the

existing

orderbook

that

contained

amassive

number

of

nearly

4000

Dry

Bulk

Carriers

(3873

units).

Presentlythereare3453drybulkvesselsthatarescheduledtobedelivereduntil2014andthenumberwouldhavebeenseriouslylowerhadtherenotbeenjust

about350newordersplacedduringthesepast12months.Obviouslythepicturelooksslightlybetterthanoneyearagobutstilltheovercapacityissueishauntingthe

industry'sfuture,andmore2011isunderchallengewhenthemassisexpectedtobedelivered(morethan1800unitsof125miltons).2011pendingandscheduled

27,502,800

105,022,446

26,864,850

37,615,946

48,572,569

742,730

27,363,599

6,479,980

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

36%

15%

47%

5%

32%

1%

6%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

28,527,500

76,640,689

22,942,460

55,230,338

37,860,700

3,180,200

25,029,968

4,796,496

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

Handies16.5

Handymax17.5

Bulkers18.2

Panamax11.8

VLOC11.5

PostPanamax8.4

Capesize5.4

Supramax4.1



5/12


Jan10 Dec10

36.2% 149.3% 113.7%

35.9% 131.3% 97.7%

120,000 300,000dwt Jan10 Dec10 Jan10 Dec10

VLOC'S UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 64 87 23 35.9% 18,423,866 25,099,791 6,675,925 36.2%

NB CANCELLATIONS 5 9 4 80.0% 1,576,055 2,802,045 1,225,990 77.8%

NB ORDERS 84 85 1 1.2% 27,502,800 28,527,500 1,024,700 3.7%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 1 0 1 100.0% 267,889 0 267,889 100.0%

TOTAL 154 181 27 17.5% 47,770,610 56,429,336 8,658,726 18.1%

2011 33ships

11.4mtns

2012 34ships

12milts

2013 12ships

3.7milts

2014 2ships

0.58milts

VLOC'sAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 37 11,163,191 22%

1624

48

13,380,013

28%

2529 1 259,587 1%

30+ 0%

TOTALACTIVE+NB 172 53,627,291

AVERAGE

AGEOF

VLOC's

SECTOR

5.1YEARS

Weseethegradualinflowofnewfreshunitsfrom2008onwardsandhavedrasticallybeenacceleratedin2010withfurthervastdeliveries thatwillspikein2012,

willcauseatremendousadditionofextradwt/carryingcapacity.ThisexcesstonnagewillmostlikelyaffecttheimmediatelysmallersizetheCapes.

Althoughthe300kplusand400kDrycargoOrecarrierisafairlynewdesign,largebulkersinexcessof250kexistsince1985andtheagedistributionhasnovessels

over24years.Onlyoneshipisbuiltin1985andthatwillbetheonlypossiblescrapcandidate,Only17shipsof5mildwttonsarebuiltprior(1990).

VLOC'S250,000DWT 400,000DWT

ACTUALDWTOVERCAPACITYY2Y POTENTIALDWTOVERCAPACITY

ACTUALUNITSOVERCAPACITYY2Y POTENTIALUNITSOVERCAPACITY

TheVeryLargeOreCarriers(VLOC's)sectorhasincreaseditstotalshipsby23units.InDEC2010itnowamountsto87unitscomparedto964inJAN2010.This

increaseis36%onayearlycomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheCapeshaveaslightlylargerannualincreaseof36.2%asthesectorsumsupto25.1mil

dwttonscomparedto18.4miltonsinJAN2010.

T eVL s,NBor ersst amounta urt er 5s pswa t ngto econstructe .InJAN 1 t erewere 4un tso w c 5wereactua y e vere ur ngt ese

past12months.Inadditioncancellationshaveslightlyincreasedwith9unitsintotalwhichmakeupfor2.8miltonsofdwtcarryingcapcitythatwillnotenterintothte

activefleet,andthishashelpedtheovercapacityissuetofallto113.7%asitwasstandingatastaggering149.3%some12monthsagoalwaysintermsofdwt

carryingcapacity.

IngeneralwefeelthattheVLOC'ssectorisaheavilyovercapacitatedone,onayearlycomparisonbymorethan36%andhasthegreatestpotentialthreatofexisting

activefleetvsneworderspendingof113.7%whichisratheralarming.Thisratiointermsofunits/shipsisslightlylessat97.7%.ThesectorhadnearlytwoNBvessels

deliveredevery1monthanditisworthmentioning thatfurtherorderswerebeinginkedduring2010.

DELIVERIES

In2011theVLOC'sfleetwill

beincreasedby33shipsof

11.4miltonsextradwt.Thisis

a38%increasebasedonthe

currentactiveshipsand45%

basedoncurrentcarrying

capacity(dwt).Ifweaddto

theseratheralarmingfigures

theoutstandingdeliveriesof

2010(3units)wewillhavea

41%increaseinunitsanda

49%indwt.

VLOC's

87,48%

9,5%

85,47%

0,0%

VLOC's Status(UNITS)DEC2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

VLOC's YearofBuilt

VLOC'sUNITS

SumofDwt

64,42%

5,3%

84,54%

1,1%

VLOC's Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

75%

19%

5%

0%

015

1624

2529

30+

25,099,791

,44%

2,802,045,

5%

28,527,500

,51%

0,0%

VLOC's

Status(DWT)

DEC

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

18,423,866,

39%

1,576,055,

3%

27,502,800,

58%

267,889, 0%

VLOC's

Status(DWT)

JAN

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



6/12


Jan10 Dec10

15.4% 66.1% 41.8%

14.1% 63.0% 39.7%


CAPES UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 917 1,046 129 14.1% 158,766,992 183,244,044 24,477,052 15.4%

NB CANCELLATIONS 93 93 0 0.0% 16,416,515 16,860,998 444,483 2.7%

NB ORDERS 578 415 163 28.2% 105,022,446 76,640,689 28,381,757 27.0%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 10 14 4 40.0% 1,650,718 2,310,508 659,790 40.0%

TOTAL 1,598 1,568 30 1.9% 281,856,671 279,056,239 2,800,432 1.0%

2011 257ships

46.8mtns

2012 119ships

22.2milts

2013 36ships

6.9milts

2014 3ships

0.6milts

CAPESAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 783 139,217,836 75%

1624 195 32,723,312 19%

2529 52 8,464,739 5%

30+ 0%

TOTALACTIVE+NB 1,046 183,259,047

AVERAGE

AGEOF

CAPES

SECTOR

8.8YEARS

CAPESIZE

DELIVERIES

In

2011

the

Capesize

fleet

will

beincreasedby257shipsof






thesealarmingfiguresthe

outstandingdeliveriesof

2010wewillhavea26%

increaseinunitsanda27%in

dwt.

TheCapesizesectorhasincreaseditstotalshipsby129units.InDEC2010itnowamountsto1046unitscomparedto917inJAN2010.Thisincreaseis14.1%ona

yearlycomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheCapeshaveaslightlylargerannualincreaseof15.4%asthesectorsumsupto183.2mildwttonscompared

to158.7miltonsinJAN2010.

POTENTIALDWTOVERCAPACITYACTUALDWTOVERCAPACITYY2Y

ElsewisetheagedistributionoftheCapesectorisquiteevenlydistributed,withtheeldestCapebeingbuiltin1981andthereisnounitsbuiltexceeding30yearsof

age.Since2004,49Capesizevesselshavebeenscrapped.Atotalof7.6miltonsofcarryingcapacityhasbeenwithdrawnduringthis6yearperiodfromtheactive

fleet.Theaverageageofthese41Capesscrappedis28.6yearswiththeeldestbeingbuiltin1975andtheyoungestin1997.

T e apes ze,NBor ersst amounta urt er415s pswa t ngto econstructe .InJAN 1 t erewere57 un tso w c 15 wereactua y e vere ur ng

thesepast12months.Inadditioncancellationshaveremainedunchangedwith93unitswhicharestillimportantandcanseriouslyhelpthesectorbreathe.Itisworth

mentioning thatcancellationsamounttonearly17miliontonesandthisasmentionedabovehashelpedtheovercapacityissuetofallbelow42%asitwasstandingat

astaggering83%some16monthsago.

Weseethegreatinflowofnewfreshunitsfromlate2005onwardsthatstartedacceleratingduring2009andhasdrasticallyincreasedin2010andthedeliveriesare

expectedtospikein2011whenmostNBdeliveriesareactuallypushed/delayed, asaresultofslippageandrenegotiationsofcontracts.

IngeneralwefeelthattheCapesizesectorisovercapacitatedonayearlycomparisonby15.4%andhasthepotentialthreatofexistingactivefleetvsneworders

pendingof

41.8%

which

is

rather

alarming.

This

ratio

in

terms

of

units/ships

is

slightly

less

39.7%.

The

sector

had

nearly

one

NB

vessel

delivered

every

2days

and

it

is

worthmentioning thatdeliveriesacceleratedduring2Halfoftheyearlyanalysiswithfurtherordersbeinginked.


CAPESIZE120,000DWT 250,000DWT

1,046,

67%

93,6%415,26%

14,1%

Capes Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Capes YearofBuilt

CAPEUNITS

SumofDwt

917,57%93,6%

578,36%

10,1%

Capes Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

75%

19%

5%

0%

015

1624

2529

30+

183,244,044,

66%

16,860,998,

6%

76,640,689,

27%

2,310,508,

Capes Status(DWT)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

158,766,992,

56%16,416,515,

6%

105,022,446,

37%

1,650,718,1%

Capes

Status(DWT)

JAN

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



7/12


Jan10 Dec10

46.6% 179.7% 104.7%

48.6% 181.5% 104.1%


CAPES UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 146 217 71 48.6% 14,945,798 21,911,114 6,965,316 46.6%

NB CANCELLATIONS 38 39 1 2.6% 3,819,582 3,949,618 130,036 3.4%

NB ORDERS 265 226 39 14.7% 26,864,850 22,942,460 3,922,390 14.6%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 2 10 8 400.0% 240,563 1,253,270 1,012,707 421.0%

TOTAL 451 492 41 9.1% 45,870,793 50,056,462 4,185,669 9.1%

2011 158ships

15.8mtns

2012 60ships

6.2milts

2013 11ships

1.2milts

2014 2ships

0.2milts

PPMAX

AGE

PROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 155 15,207,094 75%

1624 40 4,321,074 19%

2529 9 1,078,110 4%

30+ 2 218,836 1%

TOTALACTIVE+NB 206 20,825,114

AVERAGE

AGEOF

POSTPMAX

SECTOR

7.6YEARS

POSTPANAMAX

Inreality

anew

size

segment

has

emerged

over

the

past

3years,

larger

than

the

Panamax

and

smaller

and

more

flexible

than

aCape,

aPost

Panamax

or

ababy

Cape

whicheverywayyouwanttoseeit.Firstordersweredeliveredin2007,andthenasmallersurgein2008,followedbymoreunitsin2009,withalargenumber

deliveredin2010.2011hasthepeakoftheNBdeliveries,while2012and2013showingacooloff.

POSTPANAMAX89,000DWT 120,000DWT

DELIVERIES

In2011theBabyCapesizeor

PostPanamaxfleetwillbe

increasedby159shipsof






thesealarmingfiguresthe


2010wewillhavea76%


POTENTIALUNITSOVERCAPACITY

ThePostPanamaxand/orBabyCapesector,hasincreaseditstotalshipsby71units.InDEC2010thesectoramountsto217unitscomparedto146inJAN2010.This

increaseis48.6%onayeartoyearcomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheSectorhasaslightlyLOWERy2yincreaseof46.6%asthesectorsumsupto

22mildwttonescomparedto15miltonesinJAN2010

ThePostPanamax,NBorderspresentlyamountto226outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructed.InJAN2010therewere265unitsofwhich81wereactually

deliveredduringthesepast12months.Inadditioncancellationshaveincreasedbyonly1unittotaling39cancelledorderswhichare21%ofthetotalpendingorders.

Itisworthmentioning thatthesecancellationsamountto3.9milliontonsthatmayhelptheovercapacityissuetofallbelow105%asitwasstandingatastaggering

180%thistimelastyear.

IngeneralwefeelthatthePostPanamaxand/orBabyCapesectorintermsofunitsisheavilyovercapacitatedonayearlycomparisonby104%andhasthepotential

threatofexistingactivefleetvsneworderspendingof105%whichisratheralarming.Thisratiointermsofunits/shipsisslightlylessat104%.Thesectorhadnearly

oneNBvesseldeliveredevery41/2days.


ACTUALUNITSOVERCAPACITYY2Y

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

16000000

18000000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180PostPanamax YearofBuilt

POSTPANAMAXUNITS

SumofDwt

75%

19%

4%

1%

015

1624

2529

30+

217,44%

39,8%

226,46%

10,2%

PostPanamax Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

146,32%

38,8%

265,59%

2,1%

PostPanamax Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap

/TL

21,911,114

,44%

3,949,618,

8%

22,942,460

,46%

1,253,270,

2%

PostPanamax Status(DWT)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

14,945,798,

33%3,819,582,

8%

26,864,850,

59%

240,563,

0%

PostPanamax Status(DWT)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



8/12


Jan10 Dec10

5.4% 30.9% 43.0%

4.6% 29.6% 40.8%


PANAMAX UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 1,663 1,739 76 4.6% 121,743,796 128,351,400 6,607,604 5.4%

NB

CANCELLATIONS 38 46 8 21.1% 2,946,417 3,550,714 604,297 20.5%NB ORDERS 492 709 217 44.1% 37,615,946 55,230,338 17,614,392 46.8%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 52 11 41 78.8% 3,550,736 788,270 2,762,466 77.8%

TOTAL 2,245 2,505 260 11.6% 165,856,895 187,920,722 22,063,827 13.3%

2011 292ships

22.7mtns2012 326ships

25.5milts

2013 91ships

7milts

2014 15ships

1.2milts

015 1,177 89,656,604 68%

1624 261 18,256,411 15%

2529 254 17,114,330 15%

30+

29

1,907,828

2%TOTALACTIVE+NB 1,724 127,143,473

AVERAGE

AGEOF

PANAMAX

SECTOR

12.1YEARS

Since2004,ina7yearperiodwehavereported83panamaxvesselsof5.7mildwttones,thathavebeenscrapped.Only8ofthese80shipswerescrappedduringthe

past12months.TheaverageageofthescrappedPanamaxesis29.8yearswiththeeldestbeingbuiltin1971andtheyoungestin1986.

ElsewisetheagedistributionofthePanamaxsectorisquiteevenlydistributed,withtheoddspikehereandthereandtheeldestactivePanamaxstillinoperationis

built

in

1975.

All

scrapped

panamaxes

during

the

past

6

years

amount

to

78

units

5.8mil

dwt

of

29.8years

average

the

eldest

scrapped

was

built

in

1971

and

the

most

modernwasbuiltin1986.

ThePanamaxsectoractivefleethasincreaseditstotalshipsby76units.InDEC2010thesectoramountsto1739unitscomparedto1663thatwereinJAN2010.This

increaseis4.6%onayeartoyearcomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitythePanamaxeshaveaslightlylargery2yincreaseof5.4.%asthesectorsumsupto

128.4mil dwttonescomparedto121.7miltonesinJAN2010

ThePanamax,NBorderspresentlyamounttoanalarming709outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructed.InJAN2010therewere492unitsofwhich125were

actuallydeliveredduringthesepast12months.InadditioncancellationshaveincreasedbyONLY8moreunitstotalingonly46cancelledorderswhichareoncemore

liketheCapesectorequallyimportantandcanseriouslyhelpthesectorbreathe.

IngeneralwefeelthatthePanamaxsizesectorisnotheavilyovercapacitatedonayearlycomparisonastheincreaseisanacceptable4.6%.Howeverweneedto

stressoftheconstantnewordersplacedbyownerswhohaveextendedthe orderbookfurtherandnowhasthepotentialthreatofexistingactivefleetvsneworders

pendingof43%whichisratheralarming.Thisratiointermsofunits/shipsisslightlyless,calculatedat41%.ThesectorhadnearlyoneNBvesseldeliveredevery3

days

rather

similar

to

the

Cape

size

sector.

We

can

say

that

many

cancellations,

slippage

and

new

orders

have

just

deferred

the

problem

for

the

future...

it's

a

bit

like

sweepingthedustunderthecarpet!!!

PANAMAX60,000DWT 89,000DWT



PANAMAX

DELIVERIES

In2011thePanamaxfleet

willbeincreasedby292ships

of22.7miltonsextradwt.

Thisisa17%increasebased

onthecurrentactiveships

and18%basedoncurrent

carryingcapacity(dwt).Ifwe

addtothesefiguresthevery

fewoutstandingdeliveriesof

2010wehavenochangein

ourpercentages.

Weseeasmallconcentrationofsomeolderladiesinthe2629yearsageprofile,andthenPanamaxvesselsaccumulateevenlyinthe19932000periodofbuilt.There

onweseeaspikeofyear2001builtships,thatcooledoffpartlyin2003,onlytoincreasesteadilyuntil2006,whilemanyordersplacedin2007,2008,fordeliveryin

2010andamuchgreaternumberofshipsdeliveredin2010morein2011,2012whenthepeakstops.Theovercapacityproblemisquitevisibleinthischart.

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Panamax YearofBuiltPANAMAXUNITS

SumofDwt

68%

15%

15%

2%

015

1624

2529

30+

1,739,

69%

46,2%

709,28%

11,1%

Panamax Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL 1,663,

74%

38,2%

492,22%

52,

2%

Panamax Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

128,351,400,

68%

3,550,714,

55,230,338,

29%

788,270, 1%

Panamax Status(DWT)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

121,743,796

,73%

2,946,417,

37,615,946,

23%

3,550,736,2%

Panamax Status(DWT)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



9/12


Jan10 Dec10

31.9% 54.7% 92.6%

30.4% 52.8% 88.8%


SUPRAMAX UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 969 1,264 295 30.4% 52,476,663 69,238,375 16,761,712 31.9%

NB

CANCELLATIONS 66 115 49 74.2% 3,721,300 6,529,280 2,807,980 75.5%NB ORDERS 860 668 192 22.3% 48,572,569 37,860,700 10,711,869 22.1%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 15 10 5 33.3% 804,124 533,377 270,747 33.7%

TOTAL 1,910 2,057 147 7.7% 105,574,656 114,161,732 8,587,076 8.1%

2011 383ships

21.7mtns

2012 214ships

12.1milts

2013 60ships

3.4milts

2014 1ship

0.06milts

SUPRAMAXAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 1,165 63,805,614 91%

1624

32

1,689,670

3%

2529 17 940,077 1%

30+ 12 655,814 1%


AVERAGE

AGEOF

SUPRAMAX

SECTOR

4.2YEARS

Itgoeswithoutsayingthatasthisisamodernpost2000shipdesign,therearenoscrappedvesselsinthiscomparison.

TheSupramaxisanewtypeofgearedvesselandassuchonlystartedemergingaftertheyear2000.Ordersweregiveninearly1999fordelyverylate2000andearly

2001.Whatvesselsyouseeintheagechart,arenotactuallytrueSupramaxes,howevertheyfitthebulker/DWTsizeprofile.Asmoothdistributionwithanoverall

increasingtrenduntilthefirstfloodingin2009,whichwasfollowedbyevenmoreduring2010whenthepeakwillbereachedin2011andthengraduallycoolingoff

in2012

and

the

last

of

the

know

orders

delivered

in

2013.

Asmentionedalreadyandasanoteofcorrectnessforourreaders,therearesomedrybulkvesselsthatexistbuiltpriorto2000,thatmaywellfittheSupramax

definitionintermsofcarryingcapacityareincludedinourstatisticalanalysisalthoughtheyarenotwhatwecancalla100%Supramax.

TheSupramaxsectorhasincreaseditstotalshipsbyanalarming295units.InDEC2010thesectoramountstoastaggering1264unitscomparedto969thatwere

activeinJAN2010.Thisincreaseinshipsis30.4%onayeartoyearcomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheSupramaxeshaveaslightlylargery2yincrease

ofnearly32%asthesectorsums69mildwttonescomparedto52.5miltonesinJAN2010.

TheSupramax,NBorderspresentlyamounttoanalarming668outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructedanumberverysimilartothePanamaxorders.InJAN2010

therewere860unitsofwhich300wereactuallydeliveredduringthesepast12months.Inadditioncancellationshaveincreasedby49moreunitstotalingto115

cancelledorderswhichareablessingforthesectortobreathe.YestheOrderbookisreducedbuttheNB'sdeliveredin2010aremassive.

IngeneralwefeelthattheSupramaxsizesectoristhemostheavilyovercapacitatedonayearlycomparisonastheincreaseincarryingcapacityisveryheavyat32%.

Howeverinthissectortoo,weseethatconstantlyplaced newordershaveextendedthependingorderbookandthatposesamassivepotentialthreatofexisting

activefleetVsNBordersof93%whichisseriouslyalarming.Thisratiointermsofunits/shipsisslightlyless89%.AswementionedthesectorhadnearlyoneNB

vesseldelivered

every

1days

with

approximately

300

units

in

total.


POTENTIALUNITSOVERCAPACITY

SUPRAMAX50,000DWT 60,000DWT

ACTUALUNITSOVERCAPACITYY2Y

SUPRAMAX

DELIVERIES

In2011theSupramaxfleet

willbeincreasedby383ships

of21.7miltonsextradwt.

Thisisa31%increasebased

onthecurrentactiveships

and32%basedoncurrent

carryingcapacity(dwt).Ifwe

addtothesealarmingfigures

theoutstandingdeliveriesof

2010wewillhavea34%


dwt.

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Supramax YearofBuilt

SUPRAMAXUNITS

SumofDwt

91%

3%

1%1%

015

1624

2529

30+

1,264,

61%

115,6%

668,32%

10,1%

Supramax Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

969,51%

66,3%

860,45%

15,1%

Supramax Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

69,238,375,

61%

6,529,280,

37,860,700,

33%

533,377, 0%Supramax

Status

(DWT)

DEC

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

52,476,663,

50%

3,721,300,

3%48,572,569,

46%

804,124,

1%

Supramax

Status(DWT)

JAN

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



10/12


Dec10 Jan10

1.2% 1.7% 7.2%

1.3% 1.6% 6.9%


HANDYMAX UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 972 985 13 1.3% 43,869,228 44,413,697 544,469 1.2%

NB

CANCELLATIONS 1 01

100.0% 41,535 0

41,535

100.0%

NB ORDERS 16 68 52 325.0% 742,730 3,180,200 2,437,470 328.2%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 18 14 4 22.2% 785,201 615,434 169,767 21.6%

TOTAL 1,007 1,067 60 6.0% 45,438,694 48,209,331 2,770,637 6.1%

2011 26ships

1.2mtns

2012 24ships

1.1milts

2013 14ships

0.7milts

2014 1ship

0.05milts

HANDYMXAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 483 22,368,589 49%

1624 238 10,545,872 24%

2529 225 9,794,637 23%

30+ 38 1,656,599 4%

TOTALACTIVE 988 44,547,387

AVERAGE

AGEOF

HANDYMAX

SECTOR

17.6YEARS

HANDYMAXDELIVERIES

In2011theHandymaxwillbe

increasedbyonly26shipsof

1.2miltons

extra

dwt.

This

is

amere3%increasebasedon

thecurrentactiveshipsand

3%basedoncurrentcarrying


thesefigurestheveryfew


2010wehavenochangein

ourpercentages.

Only40handymaxvesselsof1.4miltonesdwt,havebeenscrappedsince2004.Thenumberofshipsisverylow,alwaysconsideringthatthissizesegmenthasmore

than27%ofitsfleetbeingover25yearsinage.Theaverageageofallthescrappedvesselsis30years,andtheeldestwasbuiltin1972whiletheyoungestin1989.

Outofthese40vesselsscrapped8werescrappedduringthepast12monthperiodofouranalysis,in2010.

owevert ereare ene tso t e an ymax es gnan aregenera purpose nnature. eyo ergreatport an ngan ca ng ex tyan mo ern an ymaxes

offergoodgearandmoreversatileareasoftrading.Theywillbemuchinneedinportsofdeveloping countrieswithgrowingexpansionandlowportinfrastructure.

Alsoconstruction

of

these

units

allow

greater

simplicity

and

that

is

converted

in

lowere

costs

per

ship's

units.

HANDYMAX40,000DWT 50,000DWT



TheHandymaxsectorhasincreaseditstotalshipsbyonly13units.InDEC2010thesectorcounts985unitscomparedtoaslightlylessnumberof972unitsinJAN

2010.Thisincreaseisnegligible1.3%onayeartoyearcomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheHandymaxeshaveaslightlylowery2yincreaseof1.2%as

thesectorsumsupto44.4mildwttonescomparedto43.9miltonesinJAN2010.

IngeneralwefeelthattheHandymaxsectorisslightlyoveraged,hasmorethan70%ofthevesselsbuiltbefore2000,andassuchanyyoungerunitlessthan10years

old,hasanadvantageinthissizesegment.Thenewbuildingordersifalldeliveredwillonlyincreasethetotalsizeofthesectorby3.2milliontones,andwillpushthe

totalcarryingcapacityfrom44.4to47.6milliontones.

TheHandymaxsizesegmenthastwospikes,oneconcentratedaroundthe1985builtrange,andtheotheraround1996builtdate.After2000itseemsthatmore

owners/investorshaveoptedtoreplacetheirHandymaxeswithSupramaxsizedships.AlogicalmoveastheSupramaxhastheextracarryingcapcitybenefit,good

gearandmodernshipdesign.EconomiesofscalearealsotheextraadvantageofSuprasize.

TheHandymax,NBordersamounttoalowishnumberof68outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructed.InJAN2010therewereonly16unitsofwhich15were

deliveredduringthesepast12months.Inadditioncancellationstotal0units.Itisworthmentioning thatthesectorhasnoovercapacitythreatandhasnorealthreat

fromaminuteorderbookdespitetheinflowofnewordersthatcamein2ndQof2010onwards.

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Handymax YearofBuilt

HANDYMAXUNITS

SumofDwt

49%

24%

23%

4%

015

1624

2529

30+

985,92%

0,0%

68,7%14,1%

Handymax Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

972,96%

1,0%

16,2%

18,2%

Handymax Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

44,413,697

,92%

0,0%

3,180,200,

7%

615,434,

1%

Handymax Status(DWT)DEC2010Active

NB

CancellationsNB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL 43,869,228,

96%

41,535,0%

742,730, 2%

785,201,2%

Handymax Status(DWT)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



11/12


Dec10 Jan10

6.1% 29.0% 33.7%

5.0% 25.9% 30.6%


HANDIES UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 2,870 3,013 143 5.0% 81,203,917 86,183,008 4,979,091 6.1%

NB

CANCELLATIONS 134 177 43 32.1% 4,387,606 5,599,977 1,212,371 27.6%NB ORDERS 877 781 96 10.9% 27,363,599 25,029,968 2,333,631 8.5%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 291 142 149 51.2% 8,102,378 3,856,899 4,245,479 52.4%

TOTAL 4,172 4,113 59 1.4% 121,057,500 120,669,852 387,648 0.3%

2011 413ships

12.9mtns

2012 222ships

7.3milts

2013 74ships

2.5milts

2014 11ships

0.3milts

HANDIESAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 1,432 41,312,787 47%

1624

340

9,580,577

11%

2529 770 22,755,258 25%

30+ 449 11,922,818 15%

TOTALACTIVE 3,074 88,126,354

AVERAGE

AGEOF

HANDIES

SECTOR

16.8YEARS

HANDYSIZE

DELIVERIES

In2011

the

Handysize

will

be







thesefiguresallthe


2010wewewillhavea16%

increaseinunitsanda18%

increaseindwt.

IngeneralweareoftheopinionthattheHandiessectorisovercapacitatedonayearlycomparisonby6.1%andhasthepotentialthreatofexistingactivefleetvsnew

orderspendingof29%whichismodestlyspeaking,alarming.Thisratiointermsofunits/shipsisslightlyless25.9%.ThesectorhadnearlyoneNBvesseldelivered

every1dayanditisworthmentioning thatpendingordersarestillverylarge,butscrappingalsohasseriouslyhelpedtocontainthethreatandreducethepossible

overcapacityflooding,howeverthenumberofshipsscrappedin2010werereducedcomparedto2009.

HANDIES25,000DWT 40,000DWT



Handiessectorseemsinteresting.OKtherearesomeolderladiesthereasemiretiredgrannyof1942builtthatfitsthedwtprofileoftheHandies,butdespitethat

themassoftheolderunitssome40%areconcentratedin19761985rangeandthenonwardsasmootheragedistributionexists.Manyordersthatstartedtobe

deliveredfrom

2008

onwards,

even

more

in

2010

when

we

see

the

peak

of

the

units

count,

and

then

an

equally

similar

large

number

in

2011

awaits

us,

while

2012

and2013thedeliveriesseemtocooloff.From2004untiltoday282Handieshavebeenscrappedofatotalof8.9miltonesofcarryingcapacitywithanaverageageof

32.5yearsandtheeldestbuiltin1963andtheyoungestin1988.Inthissectorweseeanaccelerationinthescrappingofvessels,as70shipsscrappedoutofthetotal

ofthe7yearperiodof282vesselshavebeenremovedduringthepast12monthperiodin2010.

TheHandiessector,hasincreaseditstotalshipsby143units.InDEC 2010thefleetamountsto3013unitscomparedto2870inJAN2010.Thisincreaseis5%ona

yearlycomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitytheHandieshaveaslightlylargeryearonincreaseof6.1%asthesectorsumsupto86.2mildwttones

comparedto81.2miltonesinJAN2010.

TheHandies,NBordersamount781outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructed.InJAN2010therewere877unitsofwhich290wereactuallydeliveredduringthese

past12months.Inadditioncancellationshaveincreasedby43moreunitstotalling177cancelledorderswhichareimportantandcanseriouslyhelpthesectorwhich

hassomesortofovercapacitythreat,tobreathe.Itisworthmentioning thatcancellationsofnearly6miliontoneshavehelpedtheovercapacityissuetofallbelow

30%asitwasstandingatahigh34%thistimelastyear.

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

14000000

0

100

200

300

400

500Handies YearofBuilt

HANDIESUNITS

SumofDwt

47%

11%25%

15%

015

1624

2529

30+

3,013,

73%

177,4%781,19%

142,4%

Handysize Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

2,870,

69%

134,3%

877,21%291,7%

Handysize Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

86,183,008

,71%

5,599,977,

5%25,029,968

,21%3,856,899,

3%

Handysize

Status(DWT)

DEC

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

81,203,917,

67%

4,387,606,

4%27,363,599,

22%

8,102,378,

7%

Handysize

Status(DWT)

JAN

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL



12/12


Dec10 Jan10

0.7% 11.2% 15.3%1.4% 10.7% 14.4%

10,000 25,000dwt Jan10 Dec10 Jan10 Dec10BULKERS UNITS UNITS Y2Y+/ Y2Y% DWT DWT Y2Y+/ Y2Y%

ACTIVE 4,633 4,700 67 1.4% 42,486,176 42,788,911 302,735 0.7%

NB CANCELLATIONS 56 50 6 10.7% 439,590 412,491 27,099 6.2%

NB

ORDERS 665 501164

24.7% 6,479,980 4,796,496

1,683,484

26.0%

REMOVALS/SCRAP/TL 250 255 5 2.0% 2,872,745 2,708,975 163,770 5.7%

TOTAL 5,604 5,506 98 1.7% 52,278,491 50,706,873 1,571,618 3.0%

2011 328ships

3.2mtns

2012 83ships

0.8milts

2013 25ships

0.25milts

2014 3ships

0.02milts

BULKERSAGEPROFILE UNITS DWT %

015 2,203 20,052,023 46%

1624 644 5,765,956 14%

25

29

612

5,526,530

13%30+ 1,189 11,011,257 25%


AVERAGE

AGEOF

BULKERS

SECTOR

17.6YEARS

DISCLAIMER:Allinformation&datacontainedinthisreport,hasbeencarefullyobtainedfromavarietyofsources,asreportedfreelyinthemarket.Allnecessarycarehasbeentakeninthecollection,validation,productionandeditingofthisreport,however,N.

CotziasShippingGroupand/oranyofit'ssubsidiarycompaniesmakesnoguaranteeforaccuracy&shallnotbeheldliableforanylossincurredinanywaywhatsoeverbyanyperson,individualorcompanythatreliesontheinformationcontainedherein. Alldata,

info,charts,viewsandnewscontainedinthisreportarepropertyofNCSGroup,butcanbefreelyreproducedbyanythirdpartyinanymedia,press,tv,radio,internetprovidedthatthesourcebeingNCSisclearlyidentified,labelledandrespected.

BULKERSDELIVERIES

In2011theBulkerswillbe







thesefiguresallthe


2010wewewillhavea9%

increaseinunitsanda10%

Ingenera weareo t eop n ont att esma Bu erssector snotovercapac tate ata as t as ncrease onayear ycompar son yon y .7 an asnorea

potentialthreatofbecomingfloodedwithmoreshipsastheratioofexistingactivefleetvsneworderspendingof11.2%isquitecomforting.Thisratiointermsof

units/shipsisslightlyless10.7%.Whatisalarmingthoughisthe25%ofshipsover30yearsold.Thisislarge,butsmallershipsengageincoastaltradingwhichallows

speciallegislations

of

overage

to

be

acceptable.

The

sector

had

nearly

one

NB

vessel

delivered

every

1day

and

it

is

worth

mentioning

that

pending

orders

are

consideredasmanageable.Duringthis12monthcomparisonperiodmostscrappingactivityandshipswithdrawalsoccuredinthissizesegmentwithasimilar

numberaslastyear,of250unitsbeingwithdrawnfromtheactivefleet..

InthesmallBulkersizesegmentcoveringshipsof10,000dwtupto25,000dwt,NBordersamountto501outstandingshipswaitingtobeconstructed.InJAN2010

therewere665unitsofwhich300wereactuallydeliveredduringthesepast12months.Inadditioncancellationshavedecreasedandpresentlytotall50cancelled

orderswhichareasmallpercentageofthetotalordersonly10%.Thissizesegmentisasectorthatdoesnotseriouslyhaveanyrealimmediateovercapacitythreat.

Thedeliveredvesselstogetherwith50cancellationsofnearly0.4miliontoneshavemadethesectorposealowovercapacityissueinthissizesegmentandallowed

theratiotofallto11.2%asitwasstandingat15.3%thistimelastyear.

GeneralBulkersectoralsolooksattractive.OKtherearesomeevenolderladiesheretooaretiredgrannyof1906built,butthistypeofvesselsmayremainin

serviceassomeareengagedinlocalcoastalservicewithspecialmaritimelegislationallowingtheiroveragetoexist.ThemassoftheBulkcarrierunitsstartfromthe

19741986rangeandthenonwardsalowerconcentrationwithsmoothdistributionexists.Manyordersstartedtobedeliveredin2005,withagradualincreaseto

reachthepeakin2010.2011looksbetterand20122013haspracticallyveryfewnewunitstodeliver.

Inaperiodof7yearsfromJAN2004untilDEC2010therehavebeen472shipsofatotalof8.2mildwtthathavebeenscrappedandremovedfromtheactivefleet.

Theaverageageofthescrappedshipsis33.2yearsandtheeldestscrappedwasbuiltin1945whiletheyoungestin1992.Itisworthsayingthat136ofthese437

shipshavebeenscrappedduringthepast12monthperiodin2010.

BULKERS10,000DWT 25,000DWT


ThesmallerBulkerssector,hasincreaseditsshipsbyonly67units.InDEC2010thesectorcounts4700unitscomparedtoaslightlylower4633unitsinJAN2010.This

increaseisa1.4%onayearlycomparison.IntermsoftotalcarryingcapacitythesmallerBulkersgainedveryfewoncarryingcapacitywithaYearlyincreaseof0.7%

asthesectorsums42.8mildwttonescomparedto42.5miltonescarryingcapacitywehadrecordedinJAN2010.


0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

0

100

200

300

400

500

Bulkers YearofBuilt

BULKERSUNITS

SumofDwt

46%

14%13%

25%

015

1624

2529

30+

4,700,

85%

50,1%

501,

9%

255,5%

Bulkers Status(UNITS)DEC2010Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

4,633,

83%

56,1%

665,12%

250,4%

Bulkers Status(UNITS)JAN2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

42,788,911

,84%

412,491,

1%4,796,496,

10%

2,708,975,

5%

Bulkers

Status(DWT)

DEC

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

42,486,176,

81%

439,590, 1%6,479,980,

12%2,872,745,

6%

Bulkers

Status(DWT)

JAN

2010

Active

NB Cancellations

NB Orders

Removals/Scrap/TL

NCSC (N COTZIAS SHIPPING CONSULTANTS) PIRAEUS TEL: +30 210 4222660 PAGE 12 of 12

Overcapacity in 2010 Reprot

Documents

Transcript of Overcapacity in 2010 Reprot