OUTLOOK OF GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY Outlook of...petrochemicals industries star 2017...

download OUTLOOK OF GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY Outlook of...petrochemicals industries star 2017 rotomoulding conference - ph.montagne - total petrochemicals 2 . ... iran petrochemical industry

of 29

  • date post

    10-Feb-2018
  • Category

    Documents

  • view

    216
  • download

    2

Embed Size (px)

Transcript of OUTLOOK OF GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY Outlook of...petrochemicals industries star 2017...

  • OUTLOOK OF GLOBAL PETROCHEMICAL

    INDUSTRY CHALLENGES AND

    OPPORTUNITIES

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE

    January 29, 2017 Jaipur, India

    Philippe Montagne

    VP PolyOlefin Orient @ TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

  • GLOBAL SCENARIO OF

    PETROCHEMICALS INDUSTRIES

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 2

  • OIL, ETHANE & COAL COMPETE AS POLYMERS FEEDSTOCK

    LPG or

    Light Naphtha

    Production

    Steam-cracker

    Ethane cracker

    Gas

    CrudeOil

    Polypropylene

    Polyethylene

    Polystyrene

    Benzene

    Styrene

    Toluene

    Paraxylene

    Xylenes

    Ethylene

    Pyrolysis Gasolines

    Heavy

    Naphtha

    Butadiene

    Propylene

    FCC

    Refinery

    Aromatic

    extraction

    REFORMER

    Coal

    Methanol

    MTO CTM

    POLYMERS

    3 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

  • CRUDE OIL IS BACK TO 50 $/BL

    the world consumption increases by about 1%/y (2016 ~ 96 Mb/d)

    the USA have become the #1 Oil Producer in the world because of Shale Oil

    Investment by Oil Industry have been cut by 50% since 2014 (700 Bn$)

    IRAN sanctions have been lifted

    US financial crisis

    OPEC agreement

  • NATURAL GAS STAYS ABUNDANT AND CHEAP

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vs the Henry Hub Natural Gas spot price

    $/MMBTU $/BL

  • COAL IS VERY CHEAP BUT EMITS 2 X CO2 VS NG

    $/MT

    MTPA 2016 2020

    PE 2.5 6.5

    PP 4 8.5

    CTO Production Capacity in China

    5 Mt Coal 1 Mt Polyolefin

  • 7 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    IN A CONTEXT OF CRUDE OIL @ 70$/BL, ETHANE-BASED

    POLYOLEFINS ARE THE MOST PROFITABLE

    Source: IHS

  • IRAN PETROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY IS ABOUT TO BOOM

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 8

    Iran currently produces 60 million tons of petrochemicals a year. This capacity will increase by 8.5 million tons in 2017 when a number of

    new projects become operational

    The petrochemical industry is the biggest source of foreign earnings for Iran after oil. In 2015, Iranian companies exported about $13

    billion of petrochemical products.

    Iran needs $55 billion for 60 projects in the petrochemicals sector over a period of 10 years

    Non US IOC have tabled serious proposals for building petrochemical plants in Iran

  • GROWTH DRIVERS

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 9

  • STAR

    2017

    ROTO

    MOUL

    DING

    CONFE

    RENCE

    -

    Ph.Mon

    10

    URBANIZATION: KEY DRIVER FOR THE POLYMER DEMAND

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    2022

    kg/cap

    PE - Domestic demand per capita

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    2022

    kg/cap

    PP - Domestic demand per capita

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    2022

    kg/cap

    PS - Domestic demand per capita

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    1990

    1992

    1994

    1996

    1998

    2000

    2002

    2004

    2006

    2008

    2010

    2012

    2014

    2016

    2018

    2020

    2022

    kg/cap

    PE+PP+PS - Domestic demand per capita

    Above ratio = Demand from convertors divided by population (exports of plastic finished goods are included but imports are not)

  • WORLD DEMAND KEEPS BEING PULLED BY ASIA

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 11

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    20

    20

    20

    21

    20

    22

    20

    23

    20

    24

    20

    25

    20

    26

    scenario 2 MS

    World oil products demand by region (low Brent)

    Europe

    Mb/d

    Annual Growth 2008-2015: +1.3%

    +1.9%

    +1.4%

    +1.6%

    +2.1%

    -0.2%

    +0.3 %

    -0.4%

    Annual Growth 2016-2026: +1.0%

    NAM

    Asia OCDE

    China

    Rest of Asia

    Middle East

    Rest of the world

    outlook

    -0.1%

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    20

    09

    20

    10

    20

    11

    20

    12

    20

    13

    20

    14

    20

    15

    20

    16

    20

    17

    20

    18

    20

    19

    20

    20

    20

    21

    20

    22

    20

    23

    20

    24

    20

    25

    ICIS gross demand

    World polymers* demand by region

    Mt/year

    NAM

    China

    Rest of Asia

    ME

    RoW

    Europe

    Annual Growth 2005-2015: +4.5%

    +4.4%

    +4.1%

    +4.8%

    +4.5%

    +3.5 %

    +2.8%

    Annual Growth 2016-2025: +4.2%

    Soft growth of refining

    Tonic growth of Polymers driven by GDP and Urbanization

    * : PE, PP, (E)PS, PVC, Polyester (incl. PET)

  • BY 2020 MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AMERICA WILL BOTH

    EXPORT POLYETHYLENE TO EUROPE AND ASIA

    12

    North America

    Europe

    Middle East Asia

    PE exports rising

    from US to Europe

    Polyethylene (PE) at 100 $/b

    PE 2020 regional balances at 100 $/b

    PE tradeflow (14/100$/60 $)

    Asia

    Existing PE exports

    from Middle East to

    Europe

    Europe 14 20

    100$

    20

    60$

    Demand 12.7 12.6 12.6

    Capacity 16.1 15.8 15.8

    Op. rate 78% 65% 81%

    (0.8/2.3/2.5)

    +/- x

    Polyethylene market

    Mta

    ( +/- x)

    US 14 20

    100$

    20

    60$

    Demand 15.9 18.0 18.0

    Capacity 20.1 28.2 27.2

    Op. rate 90% 87% 88%

    China 14 20

    100$

    20

    60$

    Demand 21.8 28.9 28.9

    Capacity 14.7 22.4 21.6

    Op. rate 84% 84% 84%

    +6

    +12

    -10

    (1.1/2.5/3.0)

    (0.2/1.5/1.0)

    (1.5/2.0/2.0) (7.0/8.3/8.5)

    Middle

    East

    14 20

    100$

    20

    60$

    Demand 5.6 7.4 7.4

    Capacity 19.1 22.9 22.6

    Op. rate 80% 86% 86%

    China will represent 65% of ME PE export

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

  • PETROCHEMICALS KEYS DRIVERS OF THE FUTURE

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 13

    CTO will produce cheap PolyOlefins in China and will represent 25-30% of the Chinese capacity. Their future development will depend on Oil Price.

    Middle-East and USA will export competitive PolyOlefins based on Ethane (NG and Shale Gas).

    Within 5 to 10 years, China will be self-sufficient in PP. There will be peak period with heavy Chinese PP exports.

    Urbanization will continue in China, India, Indonesia, and will pull more PolyOlefin consumption.

    Oil price should increase (less investment oil field not replaced in a still growing demand) and so doing, should cause rationalization of Naphtha-based cracking capacities

  • FOCUS ON INDIA

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 14

  • 15 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    INDIA LLDPE DEMAND OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY STRONG

    Source: IHS

  • 16 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    INDIA HDPE DEMAND OUTLOOK REMAINS ROBUST

    Source: IHS

  • 17 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    INDIA LDPE DEMAND OUTLOOK IN LINE WITH THE PAST

    Source: IHS

  • 18 STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    INDIA PP DEMAND OUTLOOK REMAINS STRONG

    Source: IHS

  • SPECIALTY PRODUCTS TO MAKE THE

    WORLD BETTER

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS 19

  • LDPE

    Linear PE

    Cr, Z-N

    Gas phase

    Metallocene

    Bimodal

    1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

    20

    Bimodal

    Metallocene

    1933

    ICI, UK

    STAR 2017 ROTOMOULDING CONFERENCE - Ph.Montagne - TOTAL PETROCHEMICALS

    1st autoclave process commercialized by ICI in 1938

    1st tubular process commercialized by BASF in 1953

    MDPE/HDPE development

    LLDPE development

    Dual reactor

    Boosted PE properties

    THE METALLOCENE PE = BREAK-THROUGH IN PE

    Te

    ch

    no

    log

    ica

    l p

    rog

    ress