Outlook for Energy A View to 2030

Outlook for EnergyA View to 2030

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Table of Contents

Transition to modern energy/technology 2

Our key energy challenges 6

Growing global demand 13

Global transportation demand 15

A single-cell oil well? 16

Improving today’s vehicle 18

Thinking outside the tank 20

Global industrial demand 21

Managing emissions 22

Global energy demand and supply 25

The importance of natural gas 27

Options for carbon policy 31

CO2 emissions 32

Integrated energy solutions 34

Key findings 36

Glossary 37

This publication includes forward-looking statements. Actual future

conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and

energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology,

the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic

changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of

ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be

reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.

The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 1

The Outlook for Energy:

A View to 2030


In our Outlook for Energy – A View to 2030, we see many

hopeful things – economic recovery and growth, improved

living standards and a reduction in poverty, and promising

new energy technologies.

But we also see a tremendous challenge: how to meet the

world’s growing energy needs while also reducing the impact

of energy use on the environment.

As the Outlook shows, ExxonMobil expects that global energy

demand in 2030 will be almost 35 percent higher than in

2005, even accounting for the recession that dampened

energy demand in 2009. Other key findings include:

• Growthwillbeledbyrapidexpansioninnon-OECD

countries such as China and India, where energy usage will

rise by about 65 percent.

• Demandwillbeparticularlyintenseforelectricpower

generation, which will comprise 40 percent of global energy

demand by 2030.

• Oilandnaturalgaswillremainessential,butothersources

including nuclear and renewables (e.g., wind, solar and

biofuels) will play an expanded role.

The future of energy is directly linked to the future well-being

and prosperity of the world’s people.

Today, about 1.5 billion people – a quarter of the world’s

population – lack access to electricity. Even more lack modern

cooking and heating fuels. Expanding access to energy – and

the opportunities it affords – should be a shared global goal.

Our energy and environmental challenges are intertwined and

their scale is enormous. Today, energy use per person around

the world varies dramatically but equates to an average of

200,000 British thermal units (BTUs) a day. Globally, that

translates to 15 billion BTUs every second.

ExxonMobil believes that meeting future energy needs while

also reducing environmental risk will require an integrated set

of solutions that includes:

• Acceleratingenergyefficiency,whichtempersdemandand

saves emissions

• Expandingall economic energy sources, including oil and

natural gas

• Mitigatingemissionsthroughtheuseofnewtechnologies

and cleaner-burning fuels such as natural gas, nuclear and

other renewable sources.

This multidimensional approach will need trillions of dollars

in investment, and an unwavering commitment to innovation

and technology that evolves over years and decades. It will

require sound, stable government policies that enable access

to resources and encourage long-term investments and

technological development. And it will require the global

energy industry to operate on a scale even larger than today.

Updated each year, The Outlook for Energy is a comprehensive

look at long-term trends in energy demand, supply, emissions

and technology. The report is built upon detailed analysis of

data from about 100 countries, incorporating publicly available

information as well as in-house expertise.

ExxonMobil uses the Outlook to guide its long-term investment

decisions. We share it publicly to encourage a better

understanding of our company, our industry and the global

energy challenges that we all have a vested interest in meeting.

1869 Golden spike set in Transcontinental Railroad

1936 Hoover Dam completed

1992 U.S. “Energy Star” program introduced

1991 First commercial lithium battery

1916 First radio tuner

1933Philo Farnsworth develops electronic television

1927 Charles Lindbergh flies across Atlantic

1947 First offshore well out of sight of land

1896 Niagara Falls hydroelectric plant opens

1901 First gasoline-powered automobile mass-produced

1907 First drive-in gas station opened

1879 First commercial incandescent light bulb

1884 First steam turbine1859 First oil

well drilled in Titusville, PA

1979 First commercial citywide cellular network launched in Japan

1980 First U.S. windfarm consisting of 20 turbines built in NewHampshire

1981 IBM introduces personal computer

1954 Modern silicon solar cell invented

1952 First commercial jet service

1956 Interstate Highway Bill signed

1969 First flight of the Concorde supersonic jet

1969 Man walks on the moon

1975 Vehicle fuel economy standards (CAFE) enacted by Congress

2005 U.S. mandate for ethanol blending into gasoline

2009 U.S. natural gas resources now cover about 100 years at current demand due to unconventional gas drilling technology advances (Source: Colorado School of Mines)

2001 Human genome sequenced

2003 First ultra-deepwater well depth greater than 3,000 meters

Source: Energy Information AdministrationWood Modern RenewablesHydro NuclearCoal GasOil

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

100

75

50

25

0

U.S. Energy DemandPercent

Transition to modern energy/technology

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1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

100

75

50

25

0



Energy sources and technology evolve

over time – and each influences the

other. By understanding the history of

energy and technology, we can better

understand the future course of the

energy challenge.

As an example, the history of energy

use in the United States over the last

150 years illustrates the way energy use

and technologies develop over time.

In the United States in 1850, wood

was the biggest energy source. But by

1900, coal had become predominant.

Technology played a role in this trend, as

mining evolved and coal fed the newly

industrialized nation. America’s access to

energy enabled its growth as an industrial

economy; in turn, industrial growth and

the wealth it created expanded U.S.

energy demand. It is important to note

that it took about 40 years for coal to

achieve its substantial share.

By 1950, oil was overtaking coal, as

more Americans owned cars and rail

transport shifted from coal to diesel.

The growth of cars and trucks, as

well as the birth of the commercial

airline industry, meant a new need for

transportation fuels. Improvements in

oil-exploration technologies helped keep

pace with this growing fuel demand.

Also by 1950, hydroelectric power came

into use. And natural gas, considered

nearly worthless a generation earlier, grew

as a fuel to meet the growing heating and

industrial needs of an increasingly wealthy

nation. Coal remained significant and

helped meet growing electricity demand.

From 1950 to 2000, we saw the

introduction and growth of nuclear energy

and the first meaningful appearance of

modern renewable fuels. Natural gas also

continued to grow and was now fueling

power generators as well.

Looking out to 2030, we see gradual

shifts in energy and technology

continuing. Both the U.S. and world

energy mix continue to grow more

diverse, which strengthens energy

security by reducing the risk from

disruption to any single supply source.

We will need to expand all these

sources – and develop new ones –

to meet future demand. New energy

technologies will open up new energy

sources, and new end-use technologies

will reshape demand patterns, just

as they have for the last 150 years. It

is important to remember, however,

that these shifts happen slowly, over

the course of decades. Free markets,

open trade, and stable legal, regulatory

and tax frameworks will facilitate these

positive transformations.

Change in energy use and technology

development is an evolutionary

process, but one that often has

revolutionary impacts.

Evolution of energy and technology


Importance of energy

Before considering the many energy demand, supply and

emissions trends that constitute the world’s energy outlook

through 2030, it is worth reflecting on the importance of

energy to all aspects of our lives.

Fundamentally, the energy outlook is about people – billions

of people and their families using energy to improve their

daily lives.

At a national and international level, it is the lifeblood

of modern economies. For developed nations, reliable

energy fuels the technologies and services that enrich and

extend life. Energy powers advanced computers, improved

transportation, expanded communications, cutting-edge

medical equipment and procedures, and much more.

For developing nations, expanding reliable and affordable

supplies of energy supports and even accelerates changes

that improve and save lives. Reliable energy means

expanded industry, modern agriculture, increased trade

and improved transportation. These are building blocks

of economic growth that create the jobs that help people

escape poverty and create better lives for their children.

For these reasons and more, energy issues are vitally

important and demand our understanding.

4 exxonmobil.com

The benefits of energy reach far beyond

what we may see in our day-to-day lives.

The energy that people use every day – to run

their households and drive their cars – is what

we can categorize as personal, or direct,

consumption of energy, and it includes the

fuel used to make electricity for the home.

To complete the picture, we also need

to count the energy that powers private

enterprise, public services and other

important needs across society.

This indirect consumption includes energy

required to run buildings (schools, hospitals,

retail shops), commercial transportation

(trucking, air and rail travel) and industry

(manufacturing, chemicals, steel). Every

member of society benefits from this

indirect energy usage – through job

opportunities, higher living standards and

overall economic growth.

On a global, per-capita basis, indirect

energy consumption is about two-thirds

of the total. In other words, when direct

and indirect energy consumption are

counted, each of us has on average an

energy “footprint” that is about twice the

size of what we might typically consider

our personal energy consumption.

In 2005, the average person in North America

had a daily energy footprint equivalent to

nearly 740,000 BTUs of energy.

The pattern of direct and indirect energy

use holds true in every region of the

world. While the absolute level of energy

use differs, indirect use is larger in every

region.

As we look at different ways to solve our

energy challenges, we must consider not

only the energy we use in our daily lives,

but also the tremendous energy being

used behind the scenes that makes our

modern lives possible.

Your energy footprint

North America

Latin America

Europe

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Africa

Russia/Caspian

Your energy footprint

740,000BTUs per Day

Direct Energy UseHousehold

Indirect Energy Use

Personal Vehicle

daily energy useBTUs per Person

200,000 300,000 500,000 600,000 700,000400,000 800,0000 100,000

Households Personal Car Public Buildings Commercial Tran IndustryNA 146542 129057 117161 80377 262391R/C 96721 7707 29261 28943 238901Europe 92112 35434 45103 52179 159466ME 73984 14388 26748 62898 161355LA 21908 9398 8081 25550 65901AP 30218 5442 10042 10873 66677Africa 35406 1882 2788 8025 32390


6 exxonmobil.com

As we survey the global energy landscape to

2030, we see several interlocking challenges.

One of the biggest jobs through 2030 will be

to reduce poverty and raise living standards

around the world. An important factor in

achieving this goal will be to continue meeting

the world’s energy needs safely, reliably and

affordably, even as population and economic

growth – particularly in developing countries –

pushes global demand higher by almost 35

percent compared to 2005.

By providing reliable and affordable energy,

we will also help revitalize economies and

enable broad economic gains around the

world. Meeting this demand will not be

easy, especially considering that the world’s

energy resources are increasingly found in

difficult or hard-to-reach places. And it will

require the global energy industry to operate

on a scale even larger than it does today.

At the same time, because we want to

ensure that today’s progress does not come

at the expense of future generations, we

need to manage the risks to our climate

and environment. That includes taking

meaningful steps to curb carbon dioxide

(CO2) emissions, while at the same time

utilizing local resources to help maintain

secure supplies.

We can meet these interlocking

challenges. To do it, we will need an

integrated set of solutions that includes

expanding all economic energy sources,

improving efficiency and mitigating

emissions through the use of cleaner-

burning fuels such as natural gas.

These solutions must be supported

by trillions of dollars in new energy

investment, a long-term focus and constant

technological innovation.

ExxonMobil is committed to pursuing each

of these integrated solutions.

Our key energy challenges

Globally, about 2.5 billion people rely

on traditional fuels such as wood and

dung for heating and cooking.

Over the past 150 years, the evolution of

modern energy and technology has enabled

people in developed countries to achieve

a lifestyle in which access to energy – at

home, at work and on the road – is largely

taken for granted. In many of these places,

the challenge today is largely one of securing

enough reliable, affordable energy to

continue meeting these existing needs.

But in some parts of the world, the challenge

is far more basic. Today, globally, about

1.5 billion people lack access to electricity.

Even more live without modern fuels for

cooking and heating. Instead, these

2.5 billion people – nearly 40 percent of the

world’s population – rely on burning wood,

dung or other traditional biomass fuels,

which can be dangerous to people’s health

and harmful to air quality.

Gaining access to energy represents

hope and opportunity. It means improved

transportation, increased commerce,

expanded industry and greater access to

health care and other social services – all of

which create jobs that help people escape

poverty. For nations with widespread

poverty, affordable and reliable energy also

is vital to building homes, schools, hospitals

and sanitation systems that can improve

and save lives.

As we consider the energy outlook to 2030,

it is important to keep in mind this “energy

gap,” and energy’s potential to lift lives and

improve communities in developed and

developing nations alike.

Challenge: meeting basic needsGlobally,

about

1.5billion people

lack access

to electricity.

A satellite image of the Earth

at night shows electricity

usage by region.

Photo courtesy of NASA

electricity modern cooking and heating fuels

Challenge: meeting basic needs

Available Available

About1.5 Billion Peoplewith No Electricity

About2.5 Billion Peoplewith No Modern

Cooking or Heating Fuels


8 exxonmobil.com


On average, a city of 1 million people in the OECD:

Needs 6 million BTUs of energy every second

Consumes over 1,000 gallons of oil per minute

Uses 150 tons of coal each hour

Requires two world-scale power plants

Drives 500,000 cars that use over 500,000 gallons of petroleum every day

Naples, Italy, population 1,004,500

10 exxonmobil.com

When ExxonMobil prepares its Outlook for

Energy each year, we start with the world’s

economic outlook, because economic

activity – along with population growth – is

a fundamental driver of energy demand.

The economic trend, globally, is the same,

and it’s encouraging.

While the recession is expected to produce a

2percentcontractioninglobalGDPin2009,

economic growth will return, and return

to a pre-recession rate. In fact, from 2005

through2030,weseeglobalGDPexpanding

at an average annual rate of 2.7 percent.

At the same time, the world’s population

is expected to rise from 6.7 billion today to

almost 8 billion. As we noted earlier, rising

populations not only create new demands for

energy for personal needs such as fuels for

cars and electricity for homes, but also energy

that is consumed “indirectly” – the energy that

serves the broader society and economy.

Together, population and economic growth

through 2030 will continue to drive global

energy demand higher.

ExxonMobil expects that global energy

demand will rise by an average annual

rate of 1.2 percent a year through 2030,

when the world will be using almost 35

percent more energy than it did in 2005.

The composition of the world’s energy will

continue to evolve through 2030, as we

will discuss later in the Outlook.

It’s important to note that while economic

growth drives energy demand, because

of expected gains in energy efficiency, our

projected rate of energy-demand growth

(1.2 percent) is less than half the rate

ofglobalGDPgrowth(2.7percent)

through 2030.

Energy demand to grow significantly

In the United States and other OECD

countries, energy demand will be

essentially flat and CO2 emissions

will decline through 2030 even as

economies and populations grow.

Energy efficiency will play a key role.

1980 20302005

0.9% Average Growth per Year

2005 – 2030

1980 20302005


2005 – 2030

1980 20302005


2005 – 2030

Energy demand to grow sharply

Quadrillion BTUs

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

energy demandTrillions in 2005 Dollars

100

80

60

40

20

0

GDPBillions

10

8

6

4

2

0

population

Data as of 11/19/2009

Data forEnergy Demandchart lifted fromcharts on 17A

1/1/80 44091/1/81 44861/1/82 45641/1/83 46421/1/84 47201/1/85 47991/1/86 48821/1/87 49671/1/88 50531/1/89 51401/1/90 52251/1/91 53101/1/92 53921/1/93 54711/1/94 55521/1/95 56251/1/96 57161/1/97 57891/1/98 58681/1/99 59451/1/00 60261/1/01 60981/1/02 61691/1/03 62411/1/04 63131/1/05 63851/1/06 64531/1/07 65221/1/08 65901/1/09 66581/1/10 67271/1/11 67931/1/12 68591/1/13 69251/1/14 69911/1/15 70561/1/16 71211/1/17 71851/1/18 72491/1/19 73131/1/20 73771/1/25 76761/1/30 7945

World1/1/80 202591/1/81 205731/1/82 206351/1/83 211891/1/84 221491/1/85 229201/1/86 236871/1/87 245521/1/88 256621/1/89 265951/1/90 273041/1/91 277701/1/92 283011/1/93 287591/1/94 297021/1/95 305571/1/96 315741/1/97 327451/1/98 335011/1/99 345641/1/00 359981/1/01 365401/1/02 372431/1/03 382361/1/04 397861/1/05 411741/1/06 428341/1/07 444401/1/08 453231/1/09 444181/1/10 453061/1/11 464551/1/12 478741/1/13 493391/1/14 508201/1/15 523501/1/16 539221/1/17 555481/1/18 572301/1/19 589721/1/20 607671/1/21 625521/1/22 643901/1/23 662811/1/24 682281/1/25 702331/1/26 722141/1/27 742511/1/28 763451/1/29 784991/1/30 80713


Economic growth drives energy demand

The world uses 15 billion BTUs

of energy every second. As more

countries move up the economic

ladder, more energy will be required.

Economic growth drives energy demand

GDP

1980 20302005

Trillions in 2005 Dollars

OECD

OECD

Non-OECD

Non-OECD60

50

40

30

20

10

0

energy demand

1980 20302005

Quadrillion BTUs

400

300

200

100

0

Global

energy demand

will be almost

35%higher in 2030

than it was

in 2005.

While global energy demand is expected

to rise by almost 35 percent through 2030,

to fully understand the energy outlook in

coming decades, we need to examine what’s

going on in developed Organization for

EconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

(OECD)countries(liketheUnitedStatesand

Europeannations)andnon-OECDnations

(such as China and India), because the trends

in these two groups can be starkly different.

Through2030,theeconomiesofnon-OECD

countries, while still relatively smaller, will grow

atamuchfasterratethanthoseoftheOECD.

By 2030, these developing economies will

havereachedcloseto60percentofOECD

economic output.

Innon-OECDcountries,rapideconomic

growth is expected to produce a steep climb

in energy demand. In fact, we expect

that between 2005 and 2030, non-OECD

energy demand will grow by about

65 percent. However, even with this rapid

growth, per-capita energy demand in non-

OECDcountriesstillwillbemuchsmaller

thaninOECDcountries.

By contrast, in OECD countries, energy

demand is expected to actually be

slightly lower in 2030 versus 2005, even

though their economies will be more

than 50 percent larger on average.

How is this possible? The main reason is

efficiency. ExxonMobil continues to project

substantialimprovementsinefficiencyinOECD

countries.Innon-OECDcountries,wealsosee

efficiencyimproving,butfastergrowthinGDP

and personal incomes will continue to drive

demand higher there.

12 exxonmobil.com

Our world continues to become more energy

efficient. From 1980 to 2000, the energy it

tooktoproduceoneunitofGDPfellbyan

average 1.2 percent a year. This occurred

for a number of reasons, including the use

of new, energy-saving technologies.

We expect efficiency gains to accelerate

between 2005 and 2030 versus historical

trends,withenergy-per-GDPfallingatan

average global rate of 1.5 percent a year.

This faster pace will be driven by higher energy

costs, government mandates and regulations,

technology advances and expected CO2

emissionscostsinOECDcountries.

Improving efficiency at this rate will save a

significant amount of energy.

Through 2030, ExxonMobil expects global

energy demand to grow by an average

1.2 percent. To see how energy efficiency

works to curb energy-demand growth,

imagine if the world’s economies grew as

projected through 2030, but efficiency

was held flat at 2005 levels. In that case,

global energy demand in 2030 would not

be almost 35 percent higher than in 2005,

as we currently project; it would be about

95percenthigher.Putanotherway,gains

in energy efficiency through 2030 will curb

energy-demand growth through 2030 by

about 65 percent.

In this respect, the greatest source of energy

in the future is finding ways to use energy

more efficiently.

Efficiency: reducing demand growth

energy per GDP

Efficiency: reducing demand growth

energy demand

1980 2030

Millions of BTUs per Thousand of Dollarsof Gross Domestic Product (2005 Dollars)

Quadrillion BTUs

1.2%Average Growth per Year

2005 – 2030

1.2% Average Efficiency Gain

per Year1980 – 2000

1.5% Average Efficiency Gain

per Year2005 – 2030

15

10

5

01980 2030

1000

600

500

400

300

800

700

900

200

100

02005

What demand would bewithout efficiency gains

Constant 2005 Level

2005

~300Quads

Through 2030, the amount of

energy saved through improved

efficiency will be greater than the

energy consumed from any single

supply source.

Taking sensible steps to improve

energy efficiency is a “triple win” –

it saves money, reduces energy

demand and curbs CO2 emissions.

Gains in energy

efficiency through

2030 will

reduce global

energy-demand

growth by

approximately

65%


Broken down by the four main end-use

sectors, the biggest demand for energy

comes from electric power generation – a

fact that might surprise some people, who

may think that transportation is the largest.

Transportation is, in fact, in third place

behind industrial demand, which represents

the energy used for manufacturing,

steelmaking and other industrial purposes.

Residential/commercial demand is the

smallest sector.

Powergenerationisnotonlythelargest

energy-demand sector, but also the

fastest-growing. Through 2030, this sector

represents 55 percent of the total growth

in energy demand.

The story behind the remarkable increase

in demand for energy for power generation

is not just the high-tech demands of

the developed world, but also the more

basic needs and economic growth of the

developingworld.Non-OECDelectricity

demand more than doubles through 2030

and accounts for 80 percent of total growth

in electricity demand through 2030.

Anyone asking how the world will meet

its energy and environmental goals must

consider electric power generation; by

2030, this sector alone will account for

about 40 percent of total primary energy

demand, and its largest energy source

will continue to be coal, the fuel with the

highest carbon intensity.

In each sector, demand would be growing

much faster without improvements in

efficiency. Efficiency improvements in each

sector will add up to significant energy

savings each year – reaching 300 quadrillion

BTUs in 2030.

Growing global demand

2005 2030

Transportation

2005 2030

PowerGeneration

2005 2030

Residential/Commercial

2005 2030

Industrial

Growing global demand

2030 Energy Savings

Quadrillion BTUs

energy demand in each sector will increase . . . . . . but increasing efficiencieswill help mitigate growth

300

200

100

0

Transportation

PowerGeneration


Industrial

Rising living standards in non-OECD

countries will create new demands

for energy through 2030.

By 2030,

power generation

will account for

40% of all energy

demand.

14 exxonmobil.com

In the residential/commercial sector –

the energy we use in our homes and

businesses – residential demand dominates,

at about three times bigger than commercial.

This trend continues as demand in this

sector grows through 2030.

Residential energy demand is tied closely

to the total number of households in the

world. Through 2030, we see the number of

households rising by 900 million, with nearly

90 percent of that growth occurring

innon-OECDcountries.

OECDcountriestodayusesubstantially

moreenergyperhouseholdthannon-OECD

countries. While that remains true in 2030,

all around the world, households are growing

more efficient in their use of energy. Through

2030, the steepest decline in energy-per-

householdwillcomefromOECDcountries,

with more modest rates of improvement in

non-OECDnations.

A diverse mix of energy is used to meet

residential/commercial demand. Natural

gas and electricity account for most of the

growth in this sector through 2030. But

biomass – fuels like wood and dung – will

retain a substantial share of supply, mainly in

thenon-OECD.

Note: In each sector, we have included

“electricity” in the breakdown of demand by

fuel. Electricity, of course, is not a fuel in itself –

it must be generated by other energy sources

such as coal and natural gas. But it is important

to recognize the share of total electricity that is

consumed by each end-use sector.

Residential /commercial demand

2005 2030 2005 20302005 2030 2005 2030

by sector

Residential/commercial demand

Residential

Non-OECD

OECD

Commercial

Quadrillion BTUs

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

residential

1980 20302005

Billion Households

3.0

2.5

0

2.0

1.5

0.5

1.0

residential energy use

Non-OECD

OECD

Millions of BTUs per Household

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

There will be 900 million more households

in the world by 2030 – and they will need

energy for heating, cooking and appliances.


Transportation is one of the fastest-

growing energy demand sectors. It is also

the one associated most closely with oil. While,

for example, we can use many different fuels

to make electricity, the same is not true right

now for transportation; globally, 98 percent of

transportation runs on fuel made from oil.

Historically, light-duty vehicles – cars, SUVs

and light pickup trucks – have been the

largest sub-sector, but that is changing.

Through 2030, light-duty demand flattens

as more efficient vehicles enter the market.

Heavy-duty vehicles (trucks and buses) grow

the most, the result of a number of factors,

including economic growth and the increased

shipment of goods across and between

nations, and within local communities.

By 2030, heavy-duty vehicles will have

become the largest transportation

demand segment; aviation and marine

transport also grow significantly, reflecting

global economic links.

We can classify transportation into two basic

categories – personal and commercial. In both,

but especially in personal vehicles, energy

demandishigherinOECDcountriestoday.

But through 2030, we see a significant

shift.IntheOECD,personaltransportation

demand is expected to drop by 25 percent

through2030,whilenon-OECDdemand

more than doubles. Why is this? First,

vehicle ownership is closely tied to personal

income,andinOECDeconomies,vehicles-

per-capita is already high. So, better fuel

economy over time – enabled by greater

penetration of conventional and advanced

technologies across the fleet – will more

than offset additional demand created by

an increase in vehicles per capita. But in

non-OECDcountries,economicprogresswill

be accompanied by rapid growth in vehicle

ownership through 2030.

Commercial transportation demand will

grow in all regions, but far more rapidly in

non-OECDcountries.By2030,thesefast-

developing nations will have overtaken the

OECDasthelargestsourceofcommercial

transportation demand.

Global transportation demand

2005 20052030 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030Personal Commercial

PersonalLight-DutyVehicles

Heavy-DutyVehicles

Aviation

Marine

Rail

Commercial

OECD

Non-OECD

OECD

Non-OECD

by sector

Global transportation demand

personal vs. commercial

1980 2030

Millions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day Millions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

25

20

15

10

5

02005

Heavy-duty vehicles such as commercial trucks

will soon overtake personal vehicles as the largest

source of transportation-related energy demand.

16 exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil believes that biofuels from photosynthetic

algae could someday play an important role in meeting the

world’s growing need for transportation fuels, while also

reducing CO2 emissions.

In July 2009, we announced a significant new project to research

and develop algae biofuels. Our partner is Synthetic Genomics

Inc (SGI), a California-based biotech firm founded by genome

researchpioneerDr.J.CraigVenter.Thegoaloftheprogram:to

produce a commercially scalable, renewable algae-based

fuel compatible with today’s gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

• Why algae? Scientists already know that certain algae

naturally produce oils similar to the petroleum products we

use today. If commercial quantities of these algae-based oils

could be developed, they could avoid the need to build the

extensive new delivery infrastructure that some other alternative

transportation fuels might require.

• Algae-based biofuels have potential environmental

advantages. Through photosynthesis, algae absorb CO2 –

the main greenhouse gas – and convert it to useful products,

like oils and oxygen. As a result, fuels made from algae could

reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

• Algae-based biofuels likely would not impact the global

food supply. While biofuels made from plants like corn and

sugar cane are an expanding energy source, they require

fertile land and fresh water; algae can be grown using land

and water unsuitable for plant or food production. Algae also

could yield between three and eight times more biofuel per

acre compared to other biofuel sources.

Getting these algae fuels from the lab to broad, commercial

scale at the local gas station will be a tremendous

undertaking – and could require decades of work.

It is an exciting project that brings together SGI’s expertise in

genomics, synthetic biology, microbiology and biochemistry;

and ExxonMobil’s expertise in transportation fuels and the

development of technologies and systems needed to increase

scale from concept phase to large-scale manufacturing.

ExxonMobil expects to spend more than $600 million on

this project if research and development milestones are met.

ExxonMobil’s investment in algae-based fuels is just one part

of our commitment to the breakthrough technologies and

integrated solutions that will be needed to address rising

demand for transportation fuels and other long-term challenges

illustrated in our Outlook for Energy.

A single-cell

oil well?


To accurately estimate future demand for

light-duty transportation fuels, we need

to project the number of vehicles that

will be on the world’s roads in 2030, and

thetypesoffuelstheywilluse.Personal

transportation demand is very sensitive to

vehicle fleet size, which we forecast from

income levels and vehicle penetration.

In the United States, vehicle penetration –

the number of vehicles relative to population –

is quite high, at nearly 80 percent, reflecting

the strong correlation between income and

vehicle ownership.

Europe has a larger population than the

United States but a similar fleet size,

reflecting a much lower number of vehicles

per capita.

The picture in other areas can be very

different. For example, in China, rising

incomes will result in rapid growth in that

country’s personal-vehicle fleet through

2030. Yet even in 2030, China’s vehicles-

per-capita will be almost 10 times lower than

the United States’, with about eight vehicles

for every 100 people.

At the same time, the composition of the

global vehicle fleet is expected to change

through 2030. Conventional gasoline

vehicles will continue to be the majority,

followed by diesel. Hybrids and other

advanced vehicles will grow rapidly; we

estimate that by 2030 they will constitute

approximately 15 percent of the total

personal-vehicle fleet, compared to less

than 1 percent today.

The expanding market share of hybrids and

other advanced vehicles, combined with

ongoing improvements to the fuel efficiency

of conventional vehicles, will combine

to curb growth in energy demand for

transportation through 2030.

Personalvehiclefleetisgrowing

2005 2030

United States

CarsCars

PopulationPopulation

2005 2030

CarsCars

Population Population

EuropeOECD

2005 2030

Cars

Cars

Population

Personal vehicle fleet is growing

vehicle penetrationIn Millions

1500

1200

900

600

300

0

fleet by car typeMillion Cars

Gasoline

Diesel

Advanced

1250

1000

750

500

250

02000 20302015 2020 20252005 2010

PopulationChina

China today has only about 27 vehicles

per 1,000 people, compared to 780 per

1,000 in the United States. Rising incomes

in China and other developing countries

will produce strong growth in the number

of global vehicles through 2030.


18 exxonmobil.com

Making vehicles more efficient is a goal of

automakers, governments and consumers

around the world. Many technologies already

have been developed to substantially improve

the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles.

These are not far-off innovations; they are

available today, and there is a lot of positive

news in this area.

• Improvedengine-basedtechnologies

can increase miles per gallon by about

15 percent versus today’s conventional

gasoline vehicles. For example, engines

can be made more efficient via

turbocharging, cylinder deactivation

and camless valves.

• Fortransmissions,increasingtoa6-speed

or higher transmission, or to a continuously

variable transmission, could increase miles

per gallon by another 5 percent to 10 percent.

• Potentialimprovementstothecarbody

and accessories include improving vehicle

aerodynamics and reducing vehicle weight

through lightweight materials such as

plastics. They also include tires that stay

inflated longer and higher-efficiency air-

conditioner compressors. Together, these

technologies could produce a 10 percent to

15 percent improvement in fuel efficiency.

Improving today’s vehicle

0 10 20155 3025 35

improvement in mileage


Engine

Transmission

Body andAccessories

Total

Percent Improvement in Miles per Gallon Aerodynamics

Turbocharging

LightweightMaterials

CylinderDeactivation

CamlessValves

Air ConditioningEfficiency

6 Speedand

7 Speed

ContinuouslyVariable

Transmission

Improved Tires


When we combine all these improvements

to conventional vehicles, we see an overall

potential increase in miles per gallon of

about 35 percent.

While these technologies are available today,

some have not yet been widely utilized

because of cost or other issues. We expect,

however, that this will change as automakers

seek to ramp up fleet efficiencies to meet

mandates.

Our view is that compared to hybrids, plug-

in hybrids or electric vehicles, improvements

to conventional vehicles will likely be a more

cost-effective approach for improving light-

duty vehicle efficiency through 2030. It’s a

matter of affordability and scale – making

incremental and economical improvements

to the millions of conventional cars that

make up the vast majority of new-car sales

is expected to have a greater overall impact

than revolutionary and costly changes in

new cars with technologies that as of yet

have not proven capable of significantly

penetrating the market.

0 10 20155 3025 35

improvement in mileage


Engine

Transmission

Body andAccessories

Total

Percent Improvement in Miles per Gallon Aerodynamics

Turbocharging

LightweightMaterials

CylinderDeactivation

CamlessValves

Air ConditioningEfficiency

6 Speedand

7 Speed

ContinuouslyVariable

Transmission

Improved Tires

20 exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil’s interest in cars and trucks goes far beyond the

fuel tank. Using our expertise not only in fuels and lubricants,

but also in chemicals and plastics, we are advancing new

technologies to make vehicles more fuel efficient.

Conventional vehicle efficiency improvements will be a key in

reducing the demand for personal transportation fuel demand

intheOECDby2030.

Some of our technologies are already on the road. For example:

• Workingwithmajortiremanufacturers,ExxonMobil

developed a new tire-lining technology that uses up to 80

percent less material in the manufacturing process, making tires

lighter and keeping them properly inflated. A car with under-

inflated tires burns up to an extra tank of gasoline every year.

• ExxonMobilhasdevelopedlightweight plastics for car

parts such as bumpers and fuel tanks. Lighter vehicles use

less fuel; for every 10 percent drop in vehicle weight, fuel

economy improves by 7 percent. ExxonMobil is a leading

supplier of polyolefinic polymers used in the manufacture of

plastic car parts.

• WeintroducedMobil 1 Advanced Fuel Economy, a

lower-viscosity synthetic motor oil. Lower viscosity means less

energy is required to circulate the oil in the engine. Mobil AFE

can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent versus motor oils

most commonly used.

These ExxonMobil technologies may not get much notice from

drivers, but they can add up to significant fuel savings. For

example, if all vehicle tires on the road in the United States retained

air pressure as well as tires made with our new technology, it

would save more than 700 million gallons of fuel annually.

By enabling cars and trucks to travel farther on a gallon of fuel,

drivers not only spend less money per mile, they also emit

less CO2 per mile.

Reducing emissions associated with transportation is one of the

key long-term challenges outlined in The Outlook for Energy. In

the United States, transportation accounted for 33 percent of all

energy-related CO2 emissions in 2008, second only to electric

powergeneration,accordingtotheDepartmentofEnergy.

In addition to technologies available today, ExxonMobil

also is researching advanced engine technologies that

could make the internal-combustion engine more efficient,

and developing innovations that could advance hybrid and

hydrogen-powered vehicles.

Thinking outside

the tank


The industrial sector is the second-largest

demand sector, behind power generation. In

2005, it accounted for nearly 30 percent of

global energy usage.

Heavy industry and chemicals make up the

majority of industrial demand. These two

sub-sectors will account for 90 percent of the

growth in industrial demand through 2030,

which is the result of economic expansion,

concentratedinnon-OECDcountries.

The next largest sub-sector is the energy

industry. Here, energy usage stays about

flat through 2030, even as demand for

the industry’s products is projected to

grow substantially. This achievement is the

result of ongoing efficiency improvements

throughout the industry and a reduction in

natural gas “flaring.”

Broken down by country group, industrial

energy demand increases by nearly

60percentinnon-OECDcountriesfrom

2005 to 2030, with China making up

about 35 percent of that increase. This is

consistent with the robust economic growth

and continued industrialization of the

developing world.

Meanwhile,OECDindustrialenergydemand

is projected to be down slightly from 2005

to 2030, despite a near-term recovery in

demand following the recession. This decline

will be driven by several factors: relatively

mature economies, ongoing efficiency gains

and a decline in heavy manufacturing as a

percentageofOECDeconomies.

Broken down by energy type, oil remains the

largest industrial fuel through 2030 due to

growingnon-OECDdemand.Weseenatural

gas and electricity gaining share while coal

declines, reflecting the shift to less-carbon-

intensive energy sources.

Global industrial demand

2005 2030

HeavyIndustry

2005 2030

Chemical

2005 2030

EnergyIndustry

2005 2030

Other

by sector

Global industrial demand

Quadrillion BTUs

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biomass

Electricity/Heat

by fuelQuadrillion BTUs

250

200

150

100

50

01980 20302005

OECD

Non-OECD

by regionQuadrillion BTUs

250

200

150

100

50

01980 20302005

Oil Gas Coal Bio 2ndry1/1/80 46.8 30 26.5 6.8 17.11/1/81 43.9 29.2 26.3 7 17.41/1/82 42.7 28 25.7 7.2 17.21/1/83 41.9 27.9 26 7.6 17.81/1/84 42.5 29.8 27.7 8.2 18.91/1/85 42.4 30.3 27.8 8.2 19.41/1/86 43.5 30.8 27.6 8.4 20.51/1/87 44.5 32 28.8 8.8 20.81/1/88 45.9 33.1 30 8.9 21.71/1/89 46.4 34 30.2 8.3 22.21/1/90 44.8 31 29.3 7.9 25.81/1/91 45.1 31.3 28.3 7.9 26.31/1/92 45.3 30.9 27.1 8.2 26.41/1/93 44 31 27 7.9 26.11/1/94 45.1 31.2 27.5 8.2 25.41/1/95 46.4 33.1 29.3 8.5 25.51/1/96 47.8 34.3 28.7 8.7 25.11/1/97 49.2 35.3 28.2 8.9 25.11/1/98 48.3 35.4 28 8.9 251/1/99 49.6 35.7 25.7 9 25.51/1/00 49.9 37.7 25 9.2 26.71/1/01 51 36.7 24.3 9 26.81/1/02 51.4 37.1 24.9 9.1 27.61/1/03 52.6 38.6 27 9.4 28.81/1/04 54.5 39.2 30.6 9.8 30.11/1/05 55.2 39.8 32.2 10 31.61/1/06 56.6 40.8 34.2 10.4 33.11/1/07 56.2 41.9 36.2 10.8 34.91/1/08 55.2 42 36.9 11.2 35.51/1/09 54.7 40.4 33.3 10.2 32.61/1/10 55.3 41.1 34.3 10.4 33.91/1/11 55.9 42.1 35 10.6 35.21/1/12 56.7 42.9 35.6 10.8 36.81/1/13 57.4 43.5 35.8 10.9 37.81/1/14 57.9 44.1 35.9 11 38.71/1/15 58.4 44.6 35.8 11 39.51/1/16 58.8 45.1 35.8 11.1 40.41/1/17 59.2 45.7 35.6 11.2 41.31/1/18 59.6 46.3 35.5 11.3 42.21/1/19 59.9 47 35.3 11.4 431/1/20 60.3 47.7 35.1 11.5 441/1/25 62.7 51.9 34.3 12 48.61/1/30 65.3 56.1 33.5 12.5 53.7

OECD Non OECD1/1/80 64.5607 62.65431/1/81 62.1489 61.58041/1/82 58.1205 62.6951/1/83 57.4426 63.73971/1/84 61.0036 65.99621/1/85 61.0815 67.13621/1/86 60.5684 70.12071/1/87 62.8367 72.06431/1/88 64.7114 74.85581/1/89 63.9762 77.14531/1/90 63.1283 75.74691/1/91 62.7292 76.23011/1/92 62.8626 75.04961/1/93 62.4078 73.58991/1/94 64.5308 73.02281/1/95 65.8874 76.97181/1/96 67.5776 77.01981/1/97 69.2132 77.55961/1/98 68.4165 77.2521/1/99 68.9909 76.6051/1/00 70.8415 77.76781/1/01 68.9998 78.70051/1/02 69.0421 81.11171/1/03 69.3716 87.04621/1/04 70.4059 93.84041/1/05 69.7822 99.03471/1/06 70.3738 104.7931/1/07 71.0483 108.9231/1/08 69.6417 111.3261/1/09 62.2052 109.0031/1/10 62.4725 112.5781/1/11 63.3762 115.4471/1/12 64.4712 118.3761/1/13 64.7286 120.7341/1/14 64.7607 122.8471/1/15 64.8073 124.4551/1/16 64.9304 126.2151/1/17 65.0266 127.9551/1/18 65.1751 129.6481/1/19 65.2651 131.41/1/20 65.36 133.1561/1/25 65.4861 144.1661/1/30 65.6498 155.593

"2005" "2030"Heavy Ind 79.2 110.7Chem 38.2 54.4Energy Ind 36.9 37.6Other 14.4 18.5

Data as of 12/02/2009

Data as of 10/28/2009

22 exxonmobil.com

ExxonMobil is successfully reducing emissions from its

own operations. In 2008, we achieved a global reduction of

10 million metric tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – about

a 7 percent decline from 2007.

We reduce emissions by increasing efficiency in our day-to-

day operations, using new energy efficiency technologies and

reducing flaring.

• Efficiency. Since the launch of our Global Energy

Management System in 2000, ExxonMobil has identified

opportunities to improve efficiency by 15 percent to 20 percent at

our refineries and chemical plants. We have already implemented

about 60 percent of these. Over the past several years, efficiency

at our refining and chemicals operations has improved at a rate

two to three times faster than the industry average.

• Cogeneration. ExxonMobil continues to expand its use of

cogeneration – a process in which we produce electricity to

power our operations while also capturing heat to make steam

needed to transform raw materials into consumer products.

ExxonMobil is an industry leader in this highly efficient form

of energy production, with interest in about 100 cogeneration

facilities in more than 30 locations worldwide. In 2008, we

added 125 megawatts of power capacity, with the startup

of new facilities at our refinery in Antwerp, Belgium. With

new facilities under construction, we expect to increase our

cogeneration capacity to more than 5 gigawatts by 2011.

• Flare Reduction. Across our operations, we are working

to reduce flaring of gas that has no economic outlet as

well as gas that is flared as a result of maintenance or

unexpected operating events. In 2008, we reduced upstream

flaring by about 30 percent, and we plan further reductions

of more than 20 percent over the next several years

compared to 2008 levels.

Since 2004, we have invested more than $1.5 billion in

activities to increase efficiency and reduce emissions. We plan

to spend at least $500 million more over the next few years.

ExxonMobil believes that energy efficiency is the most powerful

tool for meeting the central challenge outlined in The Outlook

for Energy: how to meet rising demand for energy while also

reducing the impact of energy use on the environment.

In addition to improving efficiency and reducing emissions

at our own operations, ExxonMobil also is developing

technologies to help consumers do the same. This is

important because while about 10 percent of petroleum-

related greenhouse gas emissions are from industry

operations, 90 percent are from consumer use of petroleum.

Managing

emissions


Growing demand for electricity, and the fuels

used for power generation, is a major trend

of the last 25 years, and will remain so for the

next 25 years as living standards continue

to improve worldwide and more people gain

access to electricity.

Powergenerationisthelargestenergy-demand

sector and the fastest-growing – rising at an

average of approximately 1.7 percent a year –

and will account for about 40 percent of all

energy demand, up from 36 percent in 2005

and 26 percent in 1980. This will support

strong increases in global electricity demand,

which will be about four times higher than 1980.

Electricity demand rises at a much faster rate

innon-OECDcountries,reflectingtheirfaster

economic growth and relatively low electricity

penetration to date.

What fuels will be used to generate this

electricity? Through 2030, there is a shift

away from coal toward natural gas, as well

as to nuclear and renewable fuels. This will

be driven by environmental policies, including

ones that seek to reduce emissions by

putting a cost on carbon emissions.

By 2030, we expect that 40 percent of the

world’s electricity will be generated by

nuclear and renewable fuels.

Projectingthefuturemixoffuelsforpower

generation is a complex task with many

variables. As part of this process, we must

consider how these fuels will compete

economically, because these are the real-life

factors that utilities and power generators

look at when considering which fuels to use

or what types of new power plants to build.

Electricity use is growing rapidly

by sector

Electricity use is growing rapidly

Residential

Commercial

HeavyIndustry

OtherIndustry

Transportation

Thousands of Terrawatt Hours

30

25

20

15

10

5

01980 20302005

40%

by generationThousands of Terrawatt Hours

1980 20302005

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Gas

Thousands of Terrawatt Hours

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

by region

1980 20302005

United States

Europe

Asia Pacific

OECD

China

OtherAsia Pacific

Other

Non-OECDOther

Dat

a as

of 1

0/28

/200

9

By 2030, about 40 percent of the

world’s electricity will be generated

by nuclear and renewable fuels.


24 exxonmobil.com

In the United States, absent any policies

that impose a cost on CO2 emissions, we

would expect coal and natural gas to be the

lowest-cost options for future, new-build

power plants.

But policies that impose a cost on carbon

would sway these economics. Coal, being

the most carbon-intensive fuel, would

increase in price more than natural gas.

At $30 per ton of CO2, natural gas would

become the most economic alternative for

new-build power plants. This is where we

expect CO2 costs may evolve over the

next 10 years.

As the CO2 price increases, we would expect

to see fuel switching from coal to natural

gas. This will happen by running existing

natural gas plants at higher load factors, as

well as by building new natural gas plants

and retiring old coal plants.

At $60 per ton, natural gas is still very

competitive. In addition, nuclear and wind are

now competitive, which is why we include

strong growth for both in our Outlook.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS), a

process in which CO2 emissions are

captured before they can enter the

atmosphere, holds promise in the future.

However, even with CO2 emissions priced

at $60 per ton, new-build plants with CCS

remain challenged and very expensive –

meaning a less affordable source of

electricity for consumers. This high cost,

combined with the need to build a regulatory

framework for CO2 storage, presents

significant challenges for its use over the

next two decades beyond government-

subsidized demonstration projects.

Likewise, solar energy faces significant

hurdles to becoming economically

competitive in this time frame. The cost of

capturing solar energy in photovoltaic cells or

concentrators remains generally unaffordable

for large, commercial applications.

Electricity generation cost

Baseload plants are electric power plants that run continuously to meet minimum electricity demand requirements, while peaking power plantsrun intermittently to meet seasonal and daily peak electricity demand.

* Wind and solar exclude additional costs for intermittency and transmission investments ** With carbon capture and storage technology

U.S. baseload plants, startup 2025

Electricity generation cost

Coal Gas Nuclear Wind* Coal/CCS**

Gas/CCS**

Solar*

No CO2 Cost


Gas/CCS**

Solar*

At $30 per Ton


Gas/CCS**

Solar*

At $60 per Ton

Cost per Kilowatt Hour in 2009 Cents20

15

10

5

0

20

15

10

5

0

20

15

10

5

0

Climate policies that put a “cost”

on CO2 emissions will shift the

economics of fuels used for power

generation. Natural gas, nuclear

and wind stand to benefit.


Through 2030, the global energy-demand

picture is clear: Expansion and progress,

particularlyinnon-OECDcountries,willboost

the need for energy in all four end-use sectors –

power generation, transportation, industrial

and residential/commercial. Even assuming

significant gains in efficiency, this will stack up to

a significant increase in global energy demand

to 2030 – an average 1.2 percent a year.

What types of supplies will we use to meet this

rising need for energy through 2030?

Fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – will

continue to meet most of the world’s needs

during this period, because no other energy

sources can match their availability, versatility,

affordability and scale. The fastest-growing

of these fuels will be natural gas, because

it is the cleanest-burning. By 2030, global

demand for natural gas will be more than

55 percent higher than it was in 2005.

Nuclear power will also grow significantly to

support increasing needs for power generation.

Wind, solar and biofuels will grow sharply

through 2030, at nearly 10 percent per year on

average. However, because they are starting

from a small base, their contribution by 2030

will remain relatively small at about 2.5 percent

of total energy.

No single fuel can meet our energy challenges.

To satisfy projected increases in global energy

demand to 2030 – and ensure reliable and

affordable energy to help meet our interlocking

social, economic and environmental challenges –

we will need to expand all economic fuel sources

through 2030.

Technology will play a key role. Many do not

realize that energy already is a high-tech

industry. New innovations and improvements

in energy technology continue to advance the

potential for all sources of energy.

Global energy demand and supply

Industrial

Transportation

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Hydro, GeoWind, Solar, Biofuels

Power Generation


by sector


by energy type

1980 2030

Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

02005 1980 20302005

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Res/Comm

Industrial

Transportation

PowerGen

1/1/301/1/251/1/201/1/191/1/181/1/171/1/161/1/151/1/141/1/131/1/121/1/111/1/101/1/091/1/081/1/071/1/061/1/051/1/041/1/031/1/021/1/011/1/001/1/991/1/981/1/971/1/961/1/951/1/941/1/931/1/921/1/911/1/901/1/891/1/881/1/871/1/861/1/851/1/841/1/831/1/821/1/811/1/80 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700Wind, Solar, Biofuels

Hydro/Geo

Biomass/Other

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil ex bio

1/1/301/1/251/1/201/1/191/1/181/1/171/1/161/1/151/1/141/1/131/1/121/1/111/1/101/1/091/1/081/1/071/1/061/1/051/1/041/1/031/1/021/1/011/1/001/1/991/1/981/1/971/1/961/1/951/1/941/1/931/1/921/1/911/1/901/1/891/1/881/1/871/1/861/1/851/1/841/1/831/1/821/1/811/1/80

ExxonMobil scientists and engineers use

3-D seismic technology to locate oil and

natural gas deposits with greater accuracy

and a smaller environmental footprint.

26 exxonmobil.com

Today, fossil fuels provide the majority of

the world’s energy, led by oil and then coal

and natural gas. Biomass and nuclear

come next, followed by hydroelectric and

geothermal power. Wind, solar and biofuels

combine for a very small share.

In 2030, fossil fuels remain the

predominant energy sources, accounting

for nearly 80 percent of demand. Oil still

leads, but natural gas moves into second

place on very strong growth of 1.8 percent

a year on average, particularly because

of its position as a favored fuel for power

generation.

Other energy types – particularly nuclear,

wind, solar and biofuels – will grow sharply,

albeit from a smaller base.

Other reputable sources, including the

U.S. Government’s Energy Information

Administration and the International

Energy Agency, share a similar view of

this supply picture.

Total global energy demand through 2030

is expected to rise by about 160 quadrillion

BTUs. All of this growth will occur in non-

OECDcountries;OECDdemandisexpected

to be slightly lower in 2030 versus 2005.

Through 2030, one of the most important

“fuels” of all will be energy saved through

improved efficiency. Energy saved through

efficiency gains will reach about 300

quadrillion BTUs per year by 2030, which

is about twice the growth in global

energy demand through 2030. Most of

the energy saved through efficiency will be in

OECDcountries.

Global energy demand and supplyOil and natural gas

remain essential

through 2030, but

one of the most

important “fuels”

of all will be

energy saved

through improved

efficiency.

2005 2030

OilAverage

Growth RatePer Year

0.8%

2005-2030

TotalEnergyGrowth

AnnualEnergySavings

Non-OECD

Non-OECD

OECD

20302005 2030

Gas1.8%

2005 2030


Quadrillion BTUs

demand and supply

300

250

200

150

100

50

02005 2030

Nuclear2.3%

2005 2030

Hydro, Geo2.2%

2005 2030

Wind, Solar,Biofuels

9.6%

2005 2030

Biomass0.5%

Coal0.5%

ExxonMobil has partnered

with the National Community

Action Foundation to help

low-income Americans

save money and energy by

weatherizing their homes

through the U.S. Department

of Energy’s Weatherization

Assistance Program.


Natural gas will provide a growing share of the world’s energy

through 2030. Affordable and abundant, natural gas can help

provide the energy needed for economic and social progress.

And because it burns cleaner than oil and much cleaner

than coal, natural gas is a powerful tool for reducing the

environmental impact of energy use.

ExxonMobil produces more natural gas than any other public

company in the world. We also develop breakthrough

natural gas technologies that make more of this cleaner-

burning fuel available to consumers around the world.

In the United States, ExxonMobil technologies have unlocked

vast new resources of natural gas that previously were

trapped in dense rock formations, as well as other types of

so-called “unconventional” natural gas. These technologies

have resulted in a significant upswing in U.S. natural gas

production, and may have similar applications in other parts

of the world.

• OurMulti-Zone Stimulation Technology (MZST) allows

operators to create fractures in reservoir rock at a more rapid

rate than conventional technology so gas can flow more

easily.UsingMZSTandourFastDrillProcess,ExxonMobil

is increasing recovery and production rates while reducing

development costs and our environmental footprint.

• ExxonMobilhasjoinedwithQatarPetroleumandother

partnerstofurtherdevelopQatar’sNorthField,the largest

non-associated natural gas field in the world. There, we

plan to develop natural gas resources exceeding 150 trillion

cubic feet, which will serve a global customer base.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): ExxonMobil is a global leader in

developing and delivering advanced LNG technologies. These

breakthroughs are creating a “global gas market” that can link

theworld’slargestnaturalgasreserves,suchasthoseinQatar,

with consumers who need them.

• ExxonMobilhelpedpioneeranew class of LNG carriers.

Theseships,calledQ-Max,cancarryupto80percentmore

cargo than conventional LNG carriers, reducing transportation

costs while improving efficiency and reducing emissions.

• Wearebuildingstate-of-the-artLNGreceivingterminalsin

the United States and Europe. In 2009, off the coast of Italy, we

opened the world’s first offshore gravity-based structure

for unloading, storage and re-gasification of LNG. The terminal’s

main structure rests on the seabed in 95 feet of water, about 10

miles offshore, and out of sight of land.

• ExxonMobil,togetherwithitspartners,isproducingnearly

35 million tons per year of LNG. We anticipate increasing our

joint production to almost 65 million tons per year by 2010. And

beyond 2010, we expect this to go up to around 100 million

tons per year.

The most significant single use of natural gas is as a fuel to

make electricity. As The Outlook for Energy shows, the world’s

need for electricity – and the fuels used to produce it – will grow

substantially over the coming decades. Natural gas can help

meet this growing need for electricity.

Natural gas used for electricity can reduce CO2 emissions by

up to 60 percent versus coal, which today is the most popular

fuel for power generation. It also has fewer emissions of sulfur

oxides and nitrogen oxides.

The importance of

natural gas

28 exxonmobil.com

The world’s liquid fuel supply consists mostly

of crude oil, but also includes condensate,

natural gas liquids and biofuels. Liquid fuels

will be especially important for meeting

projected strong growth in transportation

demand through 2030. Nearly all the world’s

transportation runs on liquid fuels because

they provide a large quantity of energy in

small volumes, making them easy to transport

and widely available.

Through 2030, total liquids demand

increasessteadilyto104MBDOE–about

24 percent higher than in 2005.

Tomeetthisdemand,non-OPECsupplies

areprojectedtogrowtoabout67MBDOE,

includingabout3MBDfrombiofuels.Gains

alsoareexpectedin“other”non-OPEC

petroleum, which includes natural gas liquids,

condensate, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids

and refinery gains.

Thegapbetweennon-OPECsuppliesand

total liquids demand – known as the “call on

OPECcrude”–remainsrelativelyflatinthe

nearterm,butthenexpandsto37MBDOEin

2030.Thislevelisachievable,givenOPEC’s

large resource base and continued investment.

Total liquids supply needed in 2030 is about

20MBDOEabove2005.Thisincreasewill

bemetbynon-OPECandOPECliquidsin

nearly equal share.

Meeting this demand in an economic

and environmentally sound manner is an

ongoing task of the global energy industry.

It will require large investments to maximize

yields from mature fields as they naturally

decline, and develop new sources of

supplies in existing development areas as

well as promising new regions.

Global liquids supply grows

2005Supplies

2030Adds Non-

OPEC

Base/Adds

OPEC

Global liquids supply grows

global liquids supply and demandMillions of Oil-Equivalent Barrels per Day

Non-OPEC Crudeand Condensate

Canada Oil Sands

Other Petroleum

BiofuelsLiquids Demand

OPEC Crude

120

100

80

60

40

20

01980 20302010 20201990 2000

~27~28

~34

~37

C+C Sands Cond. Biofuels1/1/80 34646 163 4834 511/1/81 35378 146 5054 571/1/82 36375 165 4997 821/1/83 37203 217 5139 1071/1/84 38733 193 5164 1491/1/85 39029 255 5215 1641/1/86 39005 315 5370 1521/1/87 39371 334 5640 1681/1/88 39285 369 5963 1721/1/89 38395 374 6107 1751/1/90 38533 344 6108 1771/1/91 38072 350 6281 1851/1/92 36952 363 6625 1881/1/93 36070 376 6963 1971/1/94 36627 396 7277 2131/1/95 36968 428 7674 2201/1/96 37942 443 7995 1991/1/97 38581 526 8202 2051/1/98 38684 590 8378 2111/1/99 38672 568 8738 2201/1/00 39493 608 9253 2131/1/01 39966 659 9409 2331/1/02 40829 741 9711 2711/1/03 41492 867 9910 3351/1/04 41847 1002 10501 3801/1/05 41660 1002 11011 4421/1/06 41455 1160 11102 5871/1/07 41520 1215 11405 7541/1/08 41053 1222 12018 10121/1/09 40851 1250 12575 10851/1/10 40472 1300 13175 12341/1/11 40106 1400 13870 13101/1/12 39724 1430 14333 13891/1/13 39462 1510 14669 14611/1/14 39320 1550 15007 15341/1/15 39159 1650 15206 16121/1/16 39439 1860 15465 16611/1/17 39716 2010 15660 17121/1/18 39846 2140 15924 17671/1/19 40176 2310 16112 18241/1/20 40401 2440 16401 18851/1/21 40825 2600 16573 19541/1/22 41067 2720 16762 20291/1/23 41160 2860 16985 21111/1/24 41283 2970 17204 22011/1/25 41354 3110 17584 22991/1/26 41468 3270 17852 24061/1/27 41578 3430 18085 25251/1/28 41624 3590 18284 26591/1/29 41573 3740 18451 28111/1/30 41681 3880 18648 2984

09CP demand1/1/80 626551/1/81 604241/1/82 589531/1/83 587281/1/84 597381/1/85 596521/1/86 613781/1/87 627181/1/88 649741/1/89 658791/1/90 668261/1/91 673171/1/92 680521/1/93 679011/1/94 689931/1/95 705381/1/96 723251/1/97 737921/1/98 743631/1/99 760241/1/00 767461/1/01 773801/1/02 781701/1/03 798461/1/04 827261/1/05 841301/1/06 852331/1/07 860321/1/08 857371/1/09 833851/1/10 845771/1/11 858091/1/12 871331/1/13 882691/1/14 893751/1/15 903981/1/16 913311/1/17 922561/1/18 931691/1/19 940481/1/20 948571/1/21 957661/1/22 966851/1/23 976121/1/24 985481/1/25 994931/1/26 1004151/1/27 1013451/1/28 1022831/1/29 1032311/1/30 104187

2005 Base Non OPEC OPECBase/Adds 84130 8594 11463New technologies – such as floating offshore

platforms that can reach crude oil located

under thousands of feet of water – are helping

meet rising global demand for oil.

Through 2030,

OPECandnon-OPEC

sources will combine

to meet an expected

24%increase

in liquid fuels

demand.


Natural gas will meet a growing share of

our energy needs through 2030. Given its

abundance and properties as a clean-burning

fuel, expanded use of natural gas in power

generation can serve economic progress and

help advance environmental goals as well.

Total natural gas demand in the United

States and Europe will follow a similar

pattern – dipping in the near term because

of the recession, and then growing

modestly through 2030. Growth averages

about0.8percentperyear.Asia-Pacific

demand grows much more rapidly, at almost

4 percent per year, with demand more than

doubling over the outlook period.

In terms of supply, an important development

has been the expansion of unconventional

natural gas – the result of recent improvements

in technologies used to tap these hard-to-

reach resources. This is particularly the case

in the United States, where it is expected to

satisfy more than 50 percent of demand by

2030. The growth in unconventional supplies

will moderate the need for liquefied natural

gas (LNG) imports in the United States in the

short term.

In Europe, local natural gas production

continues to decline, driving imports from

about 45 percent of total supply in 2005

to about 70 percent in 2030. This shift will

require growth in pipeline imports from Russia

and Caspian countries as well as LNG.

InAsiaPacific,domesticnaturalgas

production – unconventional in particular –

continues to climb, but at a slower pace

thandemand.Asaresult,AsiaPacificwill

need to rely more heavily on gas imports,

especially LNG, which will meet more than

one-third of the region’s demand in 2030.

Natural gas supply and demand balanceNatural gas supply and demand balance

LocalProduction

Imports

LNG

Pipeline

Unconventional

Conventional

Billions of Cubic Feet per Day

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Asia Pacific

2000 203020202010

LocalProduction

Imports

LNG

Pipeline

Unconventional

Conventional


120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Europe

2000 203020202010

LocalProduction

ImportsLNG

Pipeline

Unconventional

Conventional


120

100

80

60

40

20

0

United States

2000 203020202010

ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum’s

Q-Flex and Q-Max ships are fostering a

new “global gas market” that can link the

world’s largest natural gas reserves with

the consumers who need them.


30 exxonmobil.com

Rising emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse

gases pose significant risks to society and

ecosystems. Since most of these emissions

are energy-related, any integrated approach

to meeting the world’s growing energy needs

over the coming decades must incorporate

strategies to curb emissions and address the

risk of climate change. These strategies will

needtobeimplementedbybothOECDand

non-OECDcountries.

The outlook for energy-related CO2 emissions

is linked directly to the types and amounts of

energy required around the world. By 2030,

global CO2 emissions are likely to be about

25 percent higher than they were in 2005.

While this is a significant increase, it is

substantially lower than the projected

growth in energy demand over the period.

This positive development is the result of

expected gains in efficiency, as well as

a shift over time to a significantly less-

carbon-intensive energy mix – mainly

natural gas, nuclear and wind gaining

share as fuels for power generation.

Natural gas used for power generation

can result in up to 60 percent less CO2

emissions than coal, currently the most

widely used fuel for power generation.

Broken down by end-use sector, power

generation accounts for the largest

share of the growth in CO2 emissions

through 2030. This is not only because it is

the fastest-growing demand sector, but also

because it is the one that relies most heavily

on coal.

Global energy demand and CO2 emissions

Global CO2 emissions will rise by

0.9 percent a year through 2030,

with emissions growing fastest in

the power-generation sector.

Gas

Oil

Coal


2005 – 2030

Other

energy supply

Global energy demand and CO2 emissions

1980 2030

Quadrillion BTUs

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

02005

Gas

Oil

Coal


2005 – 2030

CO2 emissions by fuel

1980 2030

Billion Tons

40

30

20

10

02005

Transportation

Industrial

Power Generation


2005 – 2030

CO2 emissions by sector

1980 2030

Billion Tons

40

30

20

10

02005


C

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1/03

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6 95

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168.

3 98

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112.

3 17

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4 87

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8.8

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102.

5 89

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12

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174.

3 10

6 90

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173.

2 10

7.7

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1/1/

09

117.

5 16

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3 91

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1/10

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9.9

170.

4 10

7.5

93.9

1/1/

11

122.

3 17

2.7

110.

5 96

.11/

1/12

12

5 17

5.3

113.

6 98

.31/

1/13

12

6.4

177.

4 11

6 10

0.3

1/1/

14

127.

2 17

9.5

118.

2 10

2.4

1/1/

15

127.

9 18

1.5

120.

1 10

4.3

1/1/

16

128.

4 18

3.3

122.

3 10

6.2

1/1/

17

128.

5 18

5.1

124.

6 10

8.3

1/1/

18

128.

5 18

6.8

126.

9 11

0.3

1/1/

19

128.

4 18

8.5

129.

3 11

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128.

2 19

0 13

1.9

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51/

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7 14

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11/

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156.

9 13

7.6

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rt o

f lef

t, D

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1/1/

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89

8467

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3974

1/1/

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8527

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4020

1/1/

91

8463

88

05

4169

1/1/

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8315

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4153

1/1/

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8325

88

50

4211

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94

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95

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8870

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0 12

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3 12

441

8811

Powr Ind Trans Res/Com1/1/80 5527 6780 3706 25991/1/81 5533 6498 3685 25341/1/82 5534 6292 3667 25161/1/83 5689 6251 3704 25021/1/84 5844 6500 3810 25951/1/85 5978 6514 3889 26581/1/86 6120 6564 4042 26531/1/87 6391 6747 4177 26881/1/88 6603 6973 4364 27491/1/89 6881 7056 4480 27001/1/90 7517 6572 4565 26801/1/91 7655 6453 4617 27121/1/92 7727 6293 4712 25941/1/93 7739 6223 4767 26571/1/94 7798 6291 4877 25701/1/95 7932 6558 5010 26151/1/96 8193 6594 5130 27491/1/97 8321 6654 5254 26381/1/98 8502 6595 5387 24791/1/99 8612 6413 5542 25411/1/00 8908 6397 5636 25471/1/01 9088 6333 5652 25791/1/02 9305 6385 5774 25721/1/03 9840 6726 5914 26611/1/04 10361 7116 6179 26851/1/05 10826 7346 6337 26951/1/06 11285 7642 6490 26461/1/07 11748 7838 6691 26441/1/08 11831 7892 6708 27311/1/09 11148 7391 6490 26821/1/10 11428 7554 6611 26911/1/11 11723 7687 6744 27021/1/12 12042 7816 6878 27171/1/13 12255 7879 6992 27321/1/14 12414 7916 7099 27511/1/15 12577 7925 7192 27671/1/16 12721 7950 7299 27771/1/17 12827 7969 7406 27881/1/18 12934 7984 7511 28001/1/19 13040 7999 7613 28111/1/20 13134 8015 7710 28231/1/25 13659 8158 8181 28681/1/30 14089 8285 8610 2860


ExxonMobil believes that the broad objective of actions

to address climate change should be to reduce the risk of

serious impacts on society and the environment, while not

harming the contribution of energy to economic development

and expanded prosperity around the world.

As a company with 125 years of experience developing the

technology and infrastructure that delivers the world’s energy,

we believe we have a unique perspective on what types

of conditions are necessary to successfully tackle such a

complex global energy challenge.

Above all, companies, consumers and investors will need a

market environment that provides clear signals to encourage

sensible and broad-based investment in the two most

powerful emissions-fighting tools: improvements to energy

efficiency and the expanded use of lower-carbon fuels such

as natural gas. Continued progress on these fronts will require

trillions of dollars in new investment, and steadfast work on

the creation of new technologies.

Some governments are considering policies that would

impose a “cost” on CO2 emissions. In these cases,

ExxonMobil believes that a revenue-neutral carbon tax

has many advantages over a cap-and-trade system in terms

of achieving our society’s shared goal of reducing emissions

over the long term:

• Acarbontaxcancreate a clear and uniform cost for

emissions in all economic decisions. This price stability

encourages companies to invest in advanced technologies,

and provides a clear incentive for all consumers to increase

efficiency and reduce emissions.

• Acarbontaxavoids the costs and complexity of having

to build a new market for emissions allowances or the need

for new layers of regulators and administrators to manage

this market. It also does not open up significant opportunities

for market manipulation, or require complex and costly

compliance and enforcement systems.

• A carbon tax can be made revenue-neutral. Returning

the tax revenue to consumers through reductions in other

taxes – payroll taxes or a simple dividend – reduces the

burden on the economy, and ensures that government

policy is specifically focused on reducing emissions, not on

becoming a revenue stream for other purposes.

• Becauseglobalparticipationissoimportanttocontrolling

emissions, a carbon tax may be a more viable framework for

engaging participation by other nations.

As The Outlook for Energy shows, curbing greenhouse gas

emissions while also meeting rising energy demand will

require a tremendous global effort, sustained over decades.

Compared with a cap-and-trade system, a carbon tax – by being

predictable, transparent, and comparatively simple to understand

and implement – is a more effective approach for creating the

conditions necessary to achieve emissions-reduction goals.

Options for

carbon policy


32 exxonmobil.com

Reducing emissions is a global priority. Yet

because different countries are at different

stages in their economic development,

CO2 emissions patterns through 2030 vary

greatlybetweenOECDandnon-OECD

country groups.

Growth in CO2 emissions through 2030

will be dominated by China, India and the

other non-OECD countries. Non-OECD

emissions surpassed OECD emissions in

2004; by 2030, non-OECD countries will

account for two-thirds of the global total.

Meanwhile, OECD emissions will decline

by about 15 percent, and by 2030 will be

down to 1980 levels.

When comparing the CO2 emissions of

OECDandnon-OECDcountries,several

measures can be used – producing very

different results. On a per-capita basis,

2005emissionsintheOECDwereabout

fourtimesthatofnon-OECDcountries,

consistent with the higher per-capita energy

use in that country group. By 2030, this gap

shrinks, but remains significant – at about

two and a half times higher.

When emissions are measured per unit of

economicoutput,however,OECDnations

have much lower levels. This is because

developed nations have relatively productive

economies and are less energy-intensive. By

2030,thisgapalsoshrinks,althoughOECD

nations remain far less energy-intensive than

non-OECDcountries.

CO2 emissions

2005 2030 2005 2030

Non-OECD

OECD

2005 2030 2005 2030

Non-OECD

OECD

OECD

Non-OECD

CO2 emissions

1980 2030

Billion Tons

40

30

20

10

02005

emissions per capitaCO2 emissionsTons per Person

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

emissions per GDPTons per Thousand Dollars of GDPin 2005 Dollars

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

"2005' "2030"

OECD 11.26 8.76

Non OECD 2.7 3.41

OECD Non OECD

1/1/80 10978 7634

1/1/81 10670 7580

1/1/82 10244 7764

1/1/83 10181 7965

1/1/84 10532 8216

1/1/85 10629 8409

1/1/86 10636 8742

1/1/87 10889 9114

1/1/88 11206 9482

1/1/89 11397 9720

1/1/90 11230 10104

1/1/91 11243 10194

1/1/92 11284 10043

1/1/93 11372 10014

1/1/94 11561 9974

1/1/95 11736 10380

1/1/96 12110 10556

1/1/97 12284 10584

1/1/98 12297 10666

1/1/99 12385 10723

1/1/00 12635 10852

1/1/01 12625 11026

1/1/02 12632 11404

1/1/03 12852 12286

1/1/04 12998 13340

1/1/05 13113 14087

1/1/06 13059 15000

1/1/07 13239 15678

1/1/08 13076 16082

1/1/09 12018 15692

1/1/10 12030 16254

1/1/11 12128 16728

1/1/12 12250 17202

1/1/13 12254 17604

1/1/14 12233 17946

1/1/15 12198 18261

1/1/16 12160 18587

1/1/17 12100 18889

1/1/18 12042 19186

1/1/19 11971 19491

1/1/20 11893 19788

1/1/25 11486 21381

1/1/30 11049 22795

Data as of 10/28/2009

Data as of 10/28/2009

"2005" "2030"

OECD 0.4083 0.2159

Non OECD 1.5554 0.7719

Data as of 10/28/2009

Please check units

Non-OECD countries account for all of

the CO2 emissions growth through 2030,

yet their per-capita emissions remain far

lower than the OECD’s.


As a result of ongoing efficiency improvements

and a switch to less-carbon-intensive fuels

such as natural gas, CO2 emissions in the

OECDappeartohavealreadypeakedand

are set to trend lower through 2030.

Absolute CO2emissionsintheOECDrose

by about 2 billion tons from 1980 to 2005.

But from 2005 to 2030, we expect them

to fall by about 2 billion tons, and by 2030

be back to about 1980 levels. This is a

noteworthy achievement considering that

OECDeconomicoutputwillhavetripledover

the period and population will have grown by

about 30 percent. This proves it is possible

to achieve economic growth and also reduce

the impact of energy use on the environment.

How has this progress been achieved? To

curb CO2 emissions and still meet rising

energy demand, we have two main tools.

One is improving energy efficiency – doing

the same or more with less energy by

employing advanced technologies and

making smart choices about how we use

energy to fuel vehicles, generate electricity

and power homes and businesses. Another

is reducing CO2 intensity – choosing fuels

that have lower CO2 emissions.

From1980to2005,OECDenergyusage

became both more efficient and less carbon-

intensive. Through 2030, we see this positive

trend continuing. Beyond 2030, further gains

are likely as OECD countries continue to

pursue efficiency and shift to less-carbon-

intensive fuels to help mitigate risks

associated with CO2 emissions.

OECDtransitionstoloweremissions

Tons of CO2 per Billion BTUs

Reducing CO2 Content

Incr

easi

ng E

ffic

ienc

y

1980

2005

2030

OECD transitions to lower emissions

1980 – 2005

Billion Tons

3

2

1

0

–1

–2

–32005 – 2030

improving energy efficiency and CO2 emissionschange in CO2 emissions

12

10

8

6

4

2

060 8040200

Millions of BTUsper ThousandDollars of GDP

Energy per GDP

CO2 Content

34 exxonmobil.com

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

6.7 billion people

Global economic linkages

Growing technology use and focus

Disparate living standards

Enormous energy needs

Environmental gains and concerns

8 billion people

Non-OECD leadseconomic growth

Significant advancesin technology

Less poverty; livingstandards improve

Global energy needs upalmost 35 percent

Progress onenvironmental goals

ExpandSupply

ImproveEfficiency

MitigateEmissions

Integrated energy solutions


By 2030, there will be more than 1 billion additional

people on the earth – in total, close to 8 billion people,

all seeking better living standards. Economic expansion

will be key to reducing poverty and improving health

and prosperity, and we expect developing countries

to expand their economies rapidly toward that end.

This will require reliable and affordable energy, driving

demand up by close to 35 percent versus 2005. At

the same time, there is an ongoing need to protect the

environment for future generations.

These interlocking challenges require an integrated set

of solutions. No single source of energy, sector of the

economy or segment of society can solve all of these

challenges. In our view, there are three key elements

related to energy:

• Acceleratinggainsinenergyefficiency,which

conserves supplies, minimizes energy costs and

reduces the growth rate of both energy demand

and emissions

• Expandingtheavailabilityofreliableandaffordable

energy supplies

• Developinganddeployingtechnologytohelp

mitigate the growth of emissions associated

with energy use.

We believe it is prudent to pursue strategies that

address the long-term risks associated with rising

emissions, while keeping in mind the central

importance of energy to the economies of the world.

In this light, it is essential to consider and implement

policies with the lowest overall cost to society. This

requires economy-wide, predictable and transparent

costs to shape business and consumer plans and

investments. Global participation is also critical to

reducing costs and risks.

We must pursue each of these three elements with vigor

if we are to meet our global energy and environmental

challenges. Technology will, as it has in previous

decades, continue to play a critical role in enabling all

three of these areas.

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

6.7 billion people

Global economic linkages

Growing technology use and focus

Disparate living standards

Enormous energy needs

Environmental gains and concerns

8 billion people

Non-OECD leadseconomic growth

Significant advancesin technology

Less poverty; livingstandards improve

Global energy needs upalmost 35 percent

Progress onenvironmental goals

ExpandSupply

ImproveEfficiency

MitigateEmissions

36 exxonmobil.com

The Outlook for Energy through 2030 – key findings

DemandEconomic recovery and growth, coupled with rising

populations and living standards, will push energy demand

up by 1.2 percent a year on average through 2030.

• By 2030, global energy demand will be almost 35 percent

higher than in 2005. This assumes significant gains in

energy efficiency. Without efficiency improvements,

demand in 2030 could be about 95 percent higher.

• All the growth in demand through 2030 occurs in non-

OECDcountries,whereeconomiesaregrowingmost

rapidly.Non-OECDenergydemandrisesbymorethan

60 percent;demandinOECDcountriesdeclines

slightly even as their economies expand.

• Power generation is the largest and fastest-growing

sector. By 2030, power generation will account for

40 percent of all energy demand.

• Demandfortransportation fuels continues to increase,

due largely to greater use of heavy-duty vehicles (trucks

andbuses).Demandforlight-dutyvehicles(carsand

SUVs) actually plateaus and declines toward 2030.

SupplyTo meet demand through 2030, we will need to expand all

economicenergysources.Demandwillbestrongestforfuels

that can help reduce CO2 emissions, such as natural gas.

• Oil remains the largest energy source through 2030, but

natural gas will move into second place ahead of coal. In

2030, these three fuels will meet close to 80 percent of

global energy needs.

• Natural gas will be the fastest-growing major fuel.

By 2030, demand for natural gas will be more than

55 percent higher than in 2005. Technologies that

have unlocked “unconventional” gas will help satisfy

this demand.

• Nuclear and renewable fuels will see strong growth,

particularly in the power-generation sector. By 2030,

about 40 percent of the world’s electricity will be

generated by nuclear and renewable fuels.

• One of the most important “fuels” of all is energy efficiency.

The energy saved by improved efficiency through 2030 is

larger than from any other single source, including oil.

EmissionsGlobal CO2 emissions will rise by an average 0.9 percent a

year – a significant increase but substantially slower than

the pace of energy-demand growth because of improved

efficiency and a shift toward lower-carbon fuels.

• Non-OECDcountriesaccountforall of the CO2 emissions

growth through 2030, yet their per-capita emissions

remain far lowerthantheOECD’s.

• CO2emissionsintheUnitedStatesandotherOECD

countries are declining, even as their populations and

economiesgrow;by2030,OECDemissionswillbe

approaching 1980 levels.

• Emissions grow fastest in the power-generation sector,

in part because it is the sector that relies most heavily

on coal.

• Beyond 2030, further progress on emissions will require

more aggressive gains in efficiency and/or the use

of less-carbon-intensive fuels. New technologies will

be essential on both fronts.

Improve efficiency. Expand energy supplies. Mitigate

emissions. Develop new technologies. Each of these

solutions will be needed to meet our interlocking energy

challenges through 2030 and beyond.

The Outlook for Energy is available on our Web site at

www.exxonmobil.com.


Glossary

ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy contains global

projections for the period 2005-2030. In the Outlook,

we refer to standard units for the measurement of energy:

BCFD. Billion cubic feet per day. This is used to measure

volumesofnaturalgas.OneBCFDofnaturalgascanheat

approximately 5 million homes in the U.S. for one year. Six

BCFDofnaturalgasisequivalenttoabout1MBDOE.

BTU. British Thermal Unit. A BTU is a standard unit of

energy that can be used to measure any type of energy

source. It takes approximately 400,000 BTUs per day to

run the average North American household.

Gigawatt (GW). A unit of electric power, a gigawatt

is equal to 1 billion watts, or 1,000 megawatts. A

1-GW power plant can meet the electricity demand of

approximately 500,000 homes in the U.S.

MBDOE. Million barrels per day of oil-equivalent. This

term provides a standardized unit of measure for different

types of energy sources (oil, gas, coal, etc.) based on

energy content relative to a typical barrel of oil. One

MBDOEisenoughenergytofuelabout3percentofthe

vehicles on the world’s roads today.

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Outlook for Energy A View to 2030

Outlook for Energy A View to 2030

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