outline AID for TRADE FLOWS - Home page - Global trade · • BPC -5.8% SINCE BASELINE Regional Aid...
Transcript of outline AID for TRADE FLOWS - Home page - Global trade · • BPC -5.8% SINCE BASELINE Regional Aid...
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outline
• The context
• The commitments
• The sectors
• The recipients
• The donors
AID for TRADE FLOWS
WTO CTD Geneva, 3 July 2018Frans Lammersen
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Outline
Financing for Development
Aid for Trade
o Disbursements
o Commitments
o Financing modalities
Trade-related Other Official Flows
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Finance for Development (1) Source and Destination
USD billion
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Finance for Development (2) The Importance of ODA
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LICs LMICs UMICs
OOF
Private flows
Remittances
ODA
Tax
revenues
Typ
e o
f Ex
tern
al F
low
i / T
ota
l ext
ern
al f
low
s Tax revenu
es/ To
tal extern
al flow
s
$3,955$1,005
USD billion
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Finance for Development (3)
Finance modalities for sectors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
GNI per capita -
USD
mill
ion
LMICs UMICs HICs
OOF BPC
OOF Infra
OOF Banking
ODA Infra
ODA BPC
ODA banking
LDC
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Finance for Development (4)Debt sustainability in LICs
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Measuring aid for trade
Clear and agreed benchmarks to monitor global efforts and assure accurate accounting to assess additionality
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Disbursements : sector distribution
Transport and Storage
29%
Energy Generation and Supply
22%
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry
21%
Banking & Financial Services
11%
Business And Other Services
5%
Industry 5%
Communications2%
Trade policy and education
2%Mineral Resources
and Mining 2%
USD 342 bn
2016 prices
USD 342 bn. disbursed since 2006
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Commitments : sector distribution
IN 2016 DOWN 7.6%• Trade Policy -9% • Econ. Infra. -1.5%• BPC +17%
SINCE BASELINE UP 122%• Trade Policy +32% • Econ. Infra. +170%• BPC +72%
Economic Infrastructure
Productive capacity
Trade policy and regulations & Trade-related
adjustment
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002-05 avg. 2006-2008 2009-2011 2012-2014 2015 2016
USD billion (2016 prices)
Trade policy, BPC and Econ Infra up since 2006
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Commitments : regional distribution
In 2016Asia -14.2%Africa -2.2%America - 5.0%Europe +36.0%Oceania +42.3%
SINCE BASELINE Asia +82%Africa +159%America +150%Europe +233%Oceania +119%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002-05 avg. 2006-08 avg. 2009-11 avg. 2012-14 avg. 2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Africa America Asia Europe Oceania
Asia and Africa largest recipients
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Commitments : regional and global programs
In 2016Regional Aid for Trade up 6.7%• Trade Policy -13.3% • Econ. Infra. +70%• BPC -5.8%
SINCE BASELINE Regional Aid for Trade up 236%• Trade Policy + 82% • Econ. Infra. +326%• BPC +235%
(USD million, 2016 prices)
continued growth esp. in BCP and Econ Infra
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
2002-05avg.
2006-08avg.
2009-11avg.
2012-14avg.
2015 2016
Building productive Capacities
Economic InfrastructureTrade policy
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Commitments : income distribution
In 2016• LDCs -17 %• oLICs -41.5%• LMICs -6 %• UMICs +4.5%
SINCE BASELINE • LDCs +140%• LICs +180%• LMICs +129%• UMICs + 53%
slow down in commitments to LDCs
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002-05 avg. 2006-08 avg. 2009-11 avg. 2012-14 avg. 2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
LDCs OLICs LMICs UMICs
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Commitments : largest recipient and donors
7.7
8.1
8.3
9
9.4
9.6
13.7
16.9
19.5
20.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
Indonesia
Pakistan
Africa, regional
Iraq
Morocco
Egypt
Afghanistan
Turkey
Viet Nam
India
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Grants Loans
5.4
5.7
8.5
12.2
17.7
25
35.3
39.2
43.7
45.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Netherlands
AsDB
AfDB
United Kingdom
France
Germany
United States
World Bank
EU Institutions
Japan
Grants Loans
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Commitments per capita
LICs highest AfT per capita recipients
14 7 4
Low-Income Lower MIC Upper MIC
USD 2016 prices
41 27 13 5 5
Oceania Europe Africa America Asia
USD 2016 prices
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Commitments : Building Productive Capacity
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002-05avg.
2006-08avg.
2009-11avg.
2012-14avg.
2015 2016
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
AgricultureBanking & Fin. Serv.Business & Other Serv.Industry
In 2016• down 8% esp.• banking – 25%• agriculture – 10%
SINCE BASELINE• up 130%
SHARE• Agriculture 45%• Banking 28%
Steady increase since baseline, small decrease in 2016
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trade development marker
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Principal objective Significant objective
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
One third of BPC is directly trade related
IN 2016
-16%
Since baseline+ 100%
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Trade Facilitation
commitments up disbursements down
0
200
400
600
800
(USD million, 2016 prices)
Commitments Disbursements
In 2016Commitments up 14.5%Disbursements down 3%
Since baseline Commitments up 440%Disbursements up 882%
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Grants and loans commitments
Loans surpass grants since 2009 in DC… ... and since 2014 in LDCs
Grants50%
Grants31%
Loans50%
Loans69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Grants55%
Grants39%
Loans45%
Loans61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
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Additionality
share AfT up 8bp since baseline
Sector allocable ODA
share AfT in sector allocable ODA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160(USD billion, 2016 prices)
30.8%
38.7%
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Trade-related other official flows
Economic Infrastructure
Building Productive
Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
COMMITMENTS(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Economic Infrastructure
Building Productive
Capacity
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002-05avg.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DISBURSEMENTS
In 2016 TPR 124%BPC -16%Infra - 8%
Since baselineTPR 334%BPC 330%Infra 211%
In 2016 TPR -50%BPC -2%Infra 0%
Since baselineTPR 124%BPC 527%Infra 497%
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Trade-related other official flows
Low-income
Middle-income
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002-05avg.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(USD billion, 2016 prices)
Middle income countries get 90% of total
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Trade-related private finance mobilised
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Conclusions
Financing for Development
o ODA for LICs – OOF for MICs
o Terms are hardening for all
Aid for Trade USD 342 bn. disbursed since 2006
o Additional 8 basis points since baseline
o Commitments up 122% since baseline
o Asia and Africa main recipients
o LICs highest per capita
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More information
www.oecd.org/development/aft/ www.oecd.org/aidfortrade
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Thank you