Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies and Perspective Leapfrog Asia
Transcript of Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies and Perspective Leapfrog Asia
Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies and Perspective:Leapfrog Asia
15th AIM International Workshop22 February 2010, Tsukuba Shuzo Nishioka
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Low Carbon Asia:Background
• Growing needs for establishing new global order for reducing GHG emissions
• How to promote developing countries, in particular developing Asia, shift to low carbon society is one of the key challenges in future climate regime.
• Although numerous previous studies on climate change have been conducted from sustainable development perspective, little has been done on exploring potential of integrating LCS concept into developmental paths for Asia.
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Much of Asia is in a good position to realize
low-carbon development (?)
• Low carbon technologies already available
• International collaboration to live in spaceship “Earth”
• Co-benefit of pollution reduction
• LCS needs leap-frog technologies
• Free from past high-energy technology-system
• Plenty well-educated human resource
• Asian wisdom fit to sustainability
• High energy price trend
• But diversified pathway by countries?
Reduction Potential :Effectiveness of Technology Transfer
Low discount rate case (under 100US$/t-CO2)
China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.
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IND
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50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO220 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO20 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2X <= 0 US$/t-CO2
Huge reduction potential if Best Available Technology applied
1. Low carbon technologies already available
Year 2020
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve in 2020
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GHG reductions (Mt-CO2 eq)
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Non-Annex I (High DR)Annex I (High DR)Non-Annex I (Low DR)Annex I (Low DR)
Comparison with LOW & HIGH discount rate case
Estimated mitigations under the case of 100 US$/t-CO2 marginal abatement cost in 2020 are 8.7~11.3 GtCO2 eq in Global, 2.6~3.8 GtCO2 eq in Annex I and 6.0~7.5 GtCO2 eq in Non Annex I, respectively.
Reduction amount
Reduction cost
Technologies introduced
Energy saving could reduce air pollutants and improve health impact
BaU
Policy
BaU
Geographical distribution of PM10 emissions across China in 2020 (unit: ton)
Policy
Ambient concentration of PM10in urban areas of China in 2020
BaU
Policy
BaU
Geographical distribution of PM10 emissions across China in 2020 (unit: ton)
Policy
Ambient concentration of PM10in urban areas of China in 2020
Wan Yue/ Yan Hongwei
3. Co-benefit of pollution control
中国
26%
ドイツ
19%
日本
18%
台湾12%
アメリカ
6%
フィリピン3%
マ
レー
シア2%
ノルウェー
2%
スペイン
2%インド
1%その
他
9%
2008年太陽電池生産量国別シェア
順位 1 2 3 42006 Japan 24.6% China 22.0% Germany 19.8% USA 10.2%
Q セル[独]10.4%
シャープ[日]
9.7%
サンテック[中]
8.8%
2008 China 26% Germany 19% Japan 18%
Q セル[独]
8%
ファーストソーラー
7%
サンテック[中]
7%
シャープ[日]
7%
Production Share of Solar Cell
China
GermanyJapan
Taiwan
Japan
4. LCS needs leap-frog technologies
軽油->Diesel ICEV
軽油->Diesel ICEHEV
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEV
ガソリン->Gasoline ICEHEV
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCHEV
ガソリン->FP. Gas. FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEV
合成ディーゼル->Diesel ICEHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCHEV
メタノール->FP. MeOH FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV
石油火力->BEV
LNG火力->BEV
石炭火力->BEV
平均電源構成->BEV
バイオマス発電->BEV
石油火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
石油火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
LNG火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCHEV
石炭火力->圧縮水素->FCEV
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCHEV
平均電源構成->圧縮水素->FCEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCHEV
バイオマス発電->圧縮水素->FCEV
圧縮水素->FCHEV
圧縮水素->FCEV
液体水素->FCHEV
液体水素->FCEV
副生水素電力バイオマス石炭天然ガス原油
Well to Wheel CO2排出原
単位[g-CO2/km]
Technology: Projected Car CO2 Emission/km
ディ
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燃料
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燃料
電池
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燃料
電池
車(水
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燃料
電池
車(水
素)
燃料
電池
車(水
素)
電気
自動
車
最小 最大
副生水素 電力バイオマス 天然ガス原油
Well
to W
heel C
O2排
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単位
[g-C
O2/km
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※HV:ハイブリッド車の省略形 ※電力:日本の平均電源構成※燃料電池車:回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収 ※水素:圧縮水素を仮定
EV
Gasoline
Hy. Aug
FC
Diesel
(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN370km/h MAX.SPEED
Technological leap-fogging starts
nowElectric Car:
Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.
Experiences in Mobile Phone
Body Panels
Body Frame
Chassis
Lighter,wider, and
flexible design,when move
engine away
Let’s design customized
Asian Eco-car
深圳1985 深圳1997 深圳2005
北京1975 北京1984 北京1991 北京1997東京1927 東京1967 東京2001
大阪1967大阪1927 大阪2001
ソウル1920 ソウル1960 ソウル2006
台北1920 台北2003
マニラ2060 マニラ2000
バンコク1950 バンコク2000
Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities
Tokyo & Osaka
Manila
Bangkok
Beijing
Seoul
From Kaneko: 2009
North American Pattern
Most efficient patterndaa
*Tokyo
*Hong Kong
European Pattern
*San Francisco
*Munich
50,000GDP/Capita (USD)
100%
Modal share of motorized private mode
0%
*Rome
*Beijing *Manila
5.Free from past high-energy technology-system
Designing efficient Infrastructure
From IEA: 2008
Scale merit of accumulation: Evolution
Labor shift from rural area
The 1st Industry The 2nd Industry The 3rdIndustry
Transportation
Information Tech.
Backward effect
Forward effect
How LCS can be mainstreamed in city development path ?
Saving energy oin industry
Location of factory
Investment
Retreat of factory
Relocation to abroad
Smart growth
Compact city
Introduction of new energy
Dematerialization
Financial activities
Expand of city area
Infrastructures
Industrialization
Poverty and energy
Lock-in effect
City management
6.Leapfrog Possibility in AsiaCountry Domestic factor External factor
Industrial Structure
India: IT Industry Education/human resource
Soft tec. Globalization
Energy structure
Japan: Low energy intensity
Technology
Rapid growth
Oil Crisis
Energy security
Urban Structure
Singapore: transportation, water, housing,,
Tokyo: Public transportation
Small land strong leadership
Rapid urbanization
Relationship with Malaysia
Before auto-age
Distributed energy
India: renewable energy, Biomass
Brazil :ethanol
Poor power grid Investment, land area
Sugar cane, lack of Oil
Information China: Mobile Rapid economic growth, big land area,
Not enough com-grid
IT technology
New Energy System
? ? Climate Issue
Agricuture Low energy use Self sufficiency Energy price
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China?India?
*
Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP)
Japan’s leap-frog
Possibility of Asian countries’ catch-up
– How can we facilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon development?
– What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non market) that could facilitate those leap-floggings to low carbon technologies?
Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energy-depending technology track
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GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
per
cap
ita
Time
Low Carbon World
Developed Countries High Energy
Locked-in Type Development
With High Damage on Economy and Natural System
Developing Countries Leapfrog-
development
Modeling Sustainable Low-Carbon Asia
We have just started new research project “Asian Low-Carbon SocietyScenario Development Study” (project leader: Mikiko Kainuma) during
FY2009-2013, funded by Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ
Asian LCS scenarios study
Outcomes from Asia LCS Studies and Perspective
15th AIM International Workshop22 February 2010, Tsukuba Shuzo Nishioka
Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Renewable Energy再生可能エネルギー• Renewable energy
systems can be used as stand alone or mini-grid based on 再生可能エネルギーシステムは、以下に基づいて、単独で、又は小規模グリッドで利用できる。
• Needs assessmentニーズ調査
• Provision of wide technology choice技術の広範な選択オプションの提示
• Facilitation of technical back-up技術的バックアップの確保
• Provision of subsidised financial system補助金等の資金援助の提供
• Support existing cooperatives or promote new ones既存の協力関係の支援、又は新たな関係の促進