Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr....
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Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr. There is no point to intellectual and political work if one were a pessimist. Intellectual and political work require, nay, demand optimism. Edward Said
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Transcript of Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter. Martin Luther King, Jr....
Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
There is no point to intellectual and political work if one were a pessimist. Intellectual and political work require,
nay, demand optimism.
Edward Said
Global climate change
Energy decline (and economic impacts)
Durable living arrangements
Water
Food
Durable living:Preparing for climate change and energy decline
Regional history
Mimbres collapse ~860 ybp
Overshoot in human carrying capacity
Enabled by cheap energy source
Climate chaosIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
late 2007: 1 C by 2100
Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research
late 2008: 2 C by 2100
United Nations Environment Programme
mid 2009: 3.5 C by 2100
Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research
October 2009: 4 C by 2060
Global Carbon Project, Copenhagen Diagnosis
November 2009: 6 C, 7 C by 2100
UK Meteorology Office (Gornall et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365: 2973-2989)September 2010: Agriculture significantly impacted by 2020
Climate chaos
Proceedings of the National Academy of Science:Climate change is irreversible
(10 February 2009)
United Nations Environment Programme:
During 2008, global carbon emissions increased
(November 2009)
Climatic Change: Only economic collapse will prevent
runaway global climate change
(21 November 2009)
Climate chaos, locally
Southwestern United States is entering permanent Dust Bowl, with increased drying beginning immediately
(Richard Seager, unpublished data, August 2010)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
late 2007: 1 C by 2100
Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research
late 2008: 2 C by 2100
United Nations Environment Programme
mid 2009: 3.5 C by 2100
Hadley Centre for Meteorological Research
October 2009: 4 C by 2060
Global Carbon Project, Copenhagen Diagnosis
November 2009: 6 C, 7 C by 2100
UK Meteorology Office (Gornall et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365: 2973-2989)September 2010: Agriculture significantly impacted by 2020
Economic
collapse
Climate chaos trumped by economic collapse?
Energy decline: Economic scenarios
This Time is Different
by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (2009)
> 250 financial crises66 countries800 years
Energy decline: Economic scenarios
Société Générale
(November 2009)
Prepare for global economic collapse within two years
Energy decline: Economic scenarios
Société Générale
Prepare for global economic collapse by November 2011
Niall Ferguson, Michael Ruppert, Rice Farmer, Kurt Cobb, Karl Denninger, Rob Viglione,
Bill Bonner, Gerald Celente, Jeff Rubin, John Michael Greer, Matt Savinar, CNBC,
Catherine Austin Fitts, Charles Munger, Gonzalo Lira, Joe Bageant, Dave Cohen,
Jan Lundberg, Matt Simmons (recently deceased), Chris Hedges, Dmitry Orlov,
Michael Snyder, Nicole Foss, Paul Craig Roberts, Marc Faber, Bill Bonner, James
Wesley Rawles, Tony Robbins, Nouriel Roubini, Max Keiser, Tyler Durden, Chris
Martenson, James Kwak, Simon Johnson, Chris Clugston, Kenneth Deffeyes,
Samsam Bakhtiari, James Howard Kunstler, Bob Chapman, George Ure, Igor
Panarin, Joseph Meyer, Harry Dent, John Williams, Richard Russell, Niño Becerra,
Martin D. Weiss, Eric deCarbonnel, Robin Landry, John P. Hussman, Robert
Prechter, Richard Mogey, Peter Schiff, Lindsey Williams, Hugh Hendry, Arthur Laffer
Energy decline: United States
Energy decline: United States
Energy decline: United States imports
Energy decline: World
Energy decline: World
P
Energy decline: World
4% annual decline
(projected)
P
Energy decline: World
P
Energy decline: World
Energy decline: Future scenarios
International Energy Agency
Projects 9.1% annual decline, based on assessment
of world’s largest oil fields (WEO 2008)
(~3% through June 2010)
Jeff Rubin’s forecasting record and forecast
2000: predicted $50/bbl in 2005 (actual = $70.85)
2005: predicted $100/bbl in 2008 (actual = $147.27)
October 2009: predicted $225/bbl by 2012
Energy decline: Economic scenarios
Joint Operating Environment 2010
(Pentagon, February 2010*)
No spare oil capacity by 2012
*citing U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration
Energy decline and economic collapse
Peak oil Greatest Depression
Massive unemployment (~100%)
Fiat currency worth less and less
Energy decline and economic collapse
Peak oil Greatest Depression
Massive unemployment (~100%)
Very little gasoline, diesel
Energy decline and economic collapse
Peak oil Greatest Depression
Massive unemployment (~100%)
Very little gasoline, diesel
No food in the grocery stores
No fossil fuels for A/C or heat
No water from municipal taps
Energy decline and economic collapse
Peak oil Greatest Depression
Massive unemployment (~100%)
Very little gasoline, diesel
NO WESTERN CIVILIZATION
Brauer et al. (2005) Science 308:791-792
1973 2000
600
1,20010,000
5,000
Year
1987
GD
P (
billi
ons
of d
olla
rs)
Spe
cies
list
ed u
nder
ES
A
Energy decline economic collapse: good news
Durable living
Recognize that the industrial economy is a subset of the environment
Durable living
Recognize that the industrial economy is a subset of the environment
Use only local materials (no exports or imports)
Durable living
Recognize that the industrial economy is a subset of the environment
Use only local materials (no exports or imports)
Consume materials at the rate they are produced
SoilsWater
Fossil fuels
Durable living
Recognize that the industrial economy is a subset of the environment
Use only local materials (no exports or imports)
Consume materials at the rate they are produced
SoilsWater
Fossil fuels
Rely on local human community for support
The antithesis of durable living
Consume
1. To do away with completely; destroy
2a. To spend wastefully; squander2b. Use up
3. To waste or burn away; perish
The antithesis of durable living
Obedience
Oppression
Durable living: a personal example
The trouble is that once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And once you’ve seen it, keeping quiet, saying nothing, becomes as political an act as speaking out. There’s no
innocence. Either way, you're accountable.
Arundhati Roy (Power Politics, 2001)
Durable living: a personal example
You can either take action, or you can hang back and hope for a miracle.
Miracles are great, but they are so unpredictable.
Peter Drucker
Durable living: important attributes
Water extraction and delivery Food production and deliveryMaintain body temperatureRebuild human communities
Durable living: important attributes
Thriving in the post-carbon era
Water securityFood security
Maintain body temperatureHuman community
Durable living: Water
Durable living: Water
Durable living: Water
Silver City: >850 million gallons/year
Durable living: Food
Durable living: Food
Population of Silver City >10,000
Population of Grant County >30,000
Durable living: Food
Population of Silver City >10,000
Population of Grant County >30,000
VICTORY GARDENS?
Durable living: Failure of leadership
Durable living: the star of the show
