“Our kids will see hunger relegated to museums”Trade

barriers

It’s their own faultWe already give more

than anyone else

over a trillion $ wasted

1 billion stuffed & 1 b starved

MDGs will not be achieved

Corrupt dictators

Corrupt

multinationals

Steady progress MDGsTilted playing

field

Malthus

rich nations broke their promises2008 recession

We never promised 0.7%trade not aid

Toward a world without hunger ...

www.sfu.ca/global-nutrition

… 2 perspectives

“Our kids will see hunger relegated to museums”Trade

barriers

It’s their own faultWe already give more

than anyone else

Trillions wasted

There are more hungry now than ever

MDGs are unachievable

Corrupt dictators

Corrupt

multinationals

Steady progress MDGs

Tilted playing field

“Things will get worse no matter what we do”

Malthus

Rich nations broke

their promises2008 recession

We never promised 0.7%Trade not aid

41970 1980 1990 2000 2010500

600

700

800

900

1000

Mill

ions

und

er-n

ouri

shed

1970 20080

2000

4000

6000FedMal-nour-ished

51960 1980 2000 2020

15

33

16

%undernourished

1970 20080

2000

4000

6000 Fed

Malnour-ished

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

(mill

ions

) ad

equa

tely

nou

rishe

d (F

AO

ant

hrop

omet

ric d

ata)

61970 1980 1990 2000 2010200

300

400

500

600

f(x) = 8.21121293077502 x − 15930.2774664487

Wor

ld G

DP

$PPP

per

ca

p (e

st) 1

500-

2100

71500 2000$0

$5,000

$10,000

Indi

a to

150

0

China & Indiato 1850

WesternEuropeto 1945

USA & WestEurope

since 1945

Chi

na &

Indi

a

http://ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

GDP per capita / past 10 years

8

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010$600

f(x) = 292376.226469201 ln(x) − 2214918.51992798f(x) = 6434.86075784702 ln(x) − 48497.8881060144f(x) = 15848.6410819206 ln(x) − 120034.398796704f(x) = 15848.6410819206 ln(x) − 120034.398796704f(x) = 118551.334790581 ln(x) − 898968.779757484f(x) = 210784.13289449 ln(x) − 1598330.19689863f(x) = 210784.13289449 ln(x) − 1598330.19689863

Sub-Sahara (minus SA)

1999 $5992009 $743

Av growth rate 2.7%

$700

91970 20080

2000

4000

6000Fed

Malnourished

% In

fant

mor

talit

y <

5 ye

ars

101920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

20

30

40

http

://w

ww

.chi

ldin

fo.o

rg/m

orta

lity_

infa

ntm

orta

lity.

php

also

ww

w.g

apm

min

der.o

rg

Still poverty trapped

India

USA

Singapore

Deaths (millions) before age 5 in 2006

12

[]

[]

14

GD

P/ca

p %

gro

wth

in p

oor

coun

trie

s ex

ceed

s de

velo

ped

year2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

% G

DP/

cap

pa fo

r poo

r nat

ions

- %

for r

ich

Prog

ress

tow

ard

MD

Gs

160 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

2005

2006

% < $1.25 /day

% undernourished

% deaths < 5y

H2O

gree

n ba

r is

targ

et fo

r 201

5

2006

red bar is 1990; amber bar is 2008

school

pregnt

Porkbarrelling & Swiss bank a/c’s

multi-nationals

dictators

Offshore bank a/c’s

Rich nationpoliticians government

people in poor countries(hate corruption)

commod

ities

taxpayers in rich (Nato?) countries

“military-industrialcomplex”

Tanks & rockets for right wing regimes, invasions for “freedom & democracy”, & depose “socialists” Treaties force unfair tariffs & trade.

Share-holders

$

$

$

$$$

$

election funds,inducements

concessions

$

18

Aid that doesn't work• $ → Swiss bank accounts of dictators• that benefits the giver more than the

recipient• unsustainable aid - the need is emergency

aid and resources for sustainable development

• level playing field• independence → acceleration of economic

growth• discovery of wealth → poverty

19

Aid that does work• Transparent • Partnerships• SMART objectives• Revised annually• Externally accountable• Not self-serving• Commitments are long term (Grameen, MV,

MDG)

20

21

http://www.globalissues.org/article/35/foreign-aid-development-assistance#GovernmentsCuttingBackonPromisedResponsibilities

• Ireland• Luxemborg• Sweden• Denmark• Norway• Netherland

s• UK

Low share of phantom aid

60% of UA ODA goes to Iraq & Israel

22

[US Senator Patrick] Leahy noted that two-thirds of US government aid goes to only two countries: Israel and Egypt. Much of the remaining third is used to promote US exports or to fight a war against drugs that could only be won by tackling drug abuse in the United States.”

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan noted that the flow of money from poor to rich countries far exceeded total ODA.“Funds should be moving from developed countries to developing countries, but the opposite is happening…. Funds that should be promoting investment and growth in developing countries, or building schools and hospitals, or supporting other steps towards the Millennium Development Goals, are, instead, being transferred abroad.”

instead of promoting investment in health, education, and infrastructure development in the third world, this money has been channelled to the North, either because of debt servicing arrangements, asymmetries and imbalances in the trade system or because of inappropriate liberalisation and privatisation measures imposed upon them by the international financial and trading system.

More recent than the MDGs & making a difference

• Grameen Family of social enterprises

• Billionnaire Philanthropists & foundations

• The Millennium Village project

• Passionate & influential voices for change

• Scientists & students

• The Millennium Development Goals

• Rapid exchange of info & ideas by internet

24

Passionate renegades

Pitfalls problems & roadblocks

• Financial melt-down• National scale land purchases• Food fuel ...• War on terror ...• Nations in bondage to IMF debt• Unfair trade practices• Climate change• Globalization of food economics• Clean water & air have become commodities

Vandana Shiva on globalization

Vandana Shiva on Food Laws

Diverts development & aid $ Increases the price of foods

Also displaced persons & Destroys the local economy

Nothing helps Poverty will go

26

It’s their own fault

Corrupt dictators

Malthus

2008 recession

Trillions wasted

MDGs are unachievable

Corrupt multinationals

They will be achievedWe know what works & doesn’t

Throwing $ at problems

Will delay progress by 4-8 y

They don’t need $

• there is no reason for complacency or self-satisfaction

• 10,000,000 kwash ward [= no of kids born in Can in 30 years] 35M birth rate 10/1000 = 350k kids/y]

• The faster we move the less we have to cope with population growth,

27

28

Show as stacked histogram• %le rank Member countries• 90-100 NZ, Scand, Switz, Can, Aus, HK, W Eur & UK• 50-90 US, France, UAE, Israel, Botsw, SA, Namib, Turky• Kuwait, Ghana, Greece, China, Swaziland, India, Panama,

Thailand• 33-50 Morocco, Malawi, Lesotho, Mex, Rwanda, SriLan, Liberia,

Zambia, Senegal, Niger, Gambia, Argentina, Egypt, Algeria, Mali

• 15-30 Vietnam, Ethiopia, Uganda, Nigeria, Lybia, Zimbabwe, Russia, Kenya, Ukraine

• 5-10 Tajikistan, Cambodia, Laos, Central African Republic, Congo, Angola, Venezuela,

• 0-5 Turkmenistan, Iran, Haiti, Guinea, Uzbekistan, Iraq, Sudan, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Somalia (6 /54 African)

29

•1-liner Toward MDGs - what works, what doesn’t•Introduce the antagonist. “Dead aid”. 3 points: 1 the trajectory says YES ... but too slow2 transp, sustained, targeted aid works3 it’s working thanks to few nations & initiatives•Visual slides – not for note-taking•Visual presentation of quantitative data•Reveal the holy smokes moment•Rehearsals beginning mid-late Sept•Just before the talk remind yourself of passion

Refs

• http://data.worldbank.org/topic

31

MDG progress 2010

• http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs290/en/index.html

• http://www.fao.org/mdg/en/• http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/reports.

shtml#mdgs

32

MDG Critique & Scenarios• MDGs a critique from the south Sept 2010• http://allafrica.com/stories/201010010582.html

The MDGs after the Crisis The MDGs after the Crisis

World bank analyses scenarios. Crisis recovery matters, but not as much as kept promises

33