OTA Priorities 1979, With Brief Descriptions of Priorities and of Assessments in Progress

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OTA Priorities 1979, With Brief Descriptions of Priorities and of

Assessments in Progress

March 1979



Office of T



Forew

This report describes the first pri

of Technology Assessment (OTA) asprocess for selecting possible projectsOTA was created in 1972 to pro

tions of the broad range of impacts osociety. Those impacts include the beical, biological, economic, social, abring a long-term global and comprehprovide Congress with independassessments.



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Does the assessment involIs there congressional inte

Does the technology impquality of life?Would the assessment proCan OTA do the assessme

All members of the Board awere involved in the priority-setnearly all congressional committeof the Board and the Advisory list, unanimous support was recei



Conten

OTA Priorities—1979 . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Brief descriptions of priority items .



OTA Pr io r i t ie(Ranked in or

Impact of Technology on National W

Demand. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Alternative Global Food Futures. . . .Health Promotion and Disease PrevTechnology and World Population .



Pr ior i

IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY OSUPPLY AND

Problem. Freshwater is a vital renthe Nation’s overall freshwater supplycauses serious problems. Some areas gettoo little.

Arid regions often resort to such daplies from aquifers faster than they canately, the legal and economic web that regdry areas—often does not encourage the mvidual States regulate water with an eye t



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Priorities (Continued)

ALTERNATIVE GLOB

Problem. In the early 1960’s t

Carryover grain stocks primarily indays’ worth of global consumption.to hold out of production 50 millireserve stocks had declined to merkeep land idle had ceased. Although risen, the planet had moved from anfood scarcity.

Although improved weather conthere is still serious concern that the




HEALTH PROMOTIOPREVENTION TE

Problem. Major factors that determbiology, and health services. Heal

and chronic diseases and injuries, our mcare costs and the absence of commenshave heightened interest in health promogies. Congress has been asked to fund a trol of environmental contaminants to hethe widespread impacts of adopting thesehealth care system, and society at largeis unable to fully address many health-re



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TECHNOLOGY AND

Problem. Modern medica l

im p r o v ed th e q u a l i t y o f h u m ang r o w t h i n h u m a n n u m b e r s t h a tand increased l i fe expectancy . h a d r e a c h e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2 5 0d o u b l e , h a s n o w r e a c h e d 4 b i l lyears . A growth ra te o f th is mglobal b iosphere and fo r in ternless developed countr ies wi th thr a p i d p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e a r e pgoals a re jeopard ized by the ne




IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGOF THE

Problem. There is increasing reasduct iv i ty of American lands—croplandests—are undergoing or are facing seproductivity trends are reversed, i t i swill be unable to meet its own agricutury. Further, environmental deterioratioeffor ts in ass is t ing developing countr ipopulations’ basic human needs. The cplied and noncoordinated technologies of our land. Farmers, bowing to econo



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IMPACTS OF TECHNOINFLATION, A

Problem. Inflation, lagging pof the most critical socioeconomic Each of these problems has roots itechnology.

For example: although the massble to improve labor productivity, itransportation were used less. Furrise to increased reliance on petrolesources of petroleum. The recent pbeen a significant factor in our curr




TECHNOLOGY AND THEMEETING BASIC

Problem. As many as 1 billion inlive in abject poverty, their most fundclothing—unmet. Traditional foreign asscountries have measured progress by agnational product (GNP). However, it hasof these programs and the rise in GNP inomic plight of vast numbers of peopworsened. The “basic human needs” (BHopment strategy that concentrates resoustandard of living essential to life and dig




PEACE T

Problem. An OTA study wou

might be used to monitor compliantechnologies, by making the undetecand/ or by permitting dissemination compliance, would expand the rangemeasures, and would perhaps permagreements. The study would reviewdetermine the most appropriate natiolizing the equipment, assess the kindssible through the use of such equipmresearch in the area. The strategies w




IMPACT OF MICROPROC

Problem. The advent of micropr

“computer on a chip’ ’—has been heraldedtion of the printing press. This technologyability to organize and use information, and inexpensively incorporate “intelligenproducts and devices used by man.

Yesterday’s trip to the moon depenkitchen ranges and washing machines wilplications for the microprocessor abound.puter industry, the microprocessor is ce



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APPLICATIONS OF T

Problem. Decisions made ove

of activities in the U.S. space prograsince the Nation placed its first satethe subject of vigorous debate condecision to pursue project Apollo fresources on the specific goal of machieve this goal deferred developpolicy for nearly two decades.

With the successful use of neaspace are expanding rapidly—beginn




DESIGNING FOR CONSER

Problem. In the past, resource growth, but new studies indicate that futly related to rates of urbanization and are at least double the rate of populatiothe future, escalating demands will besatisfy a growing, urban, middle class. this expected growth in materials and en

There are many approaches to maidentified in an earlier OTA assessment,



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FUTURE OF MIL

Problem. There is need for a br

technology likely to be developed dsystematic review of their potential imon the security of the United States andcould give early warning about technoThe project would not examine items ring during the next 5 years.

OTA Role. Suggestions for systsolicited from the Department of Defabout future military equipment. The




IMPACT OF TECHMOVEMENT

Problem. The movement of goopipeline is a major element in the U.S. e‘GNP resulted from the movement of gthan 13 percent of the sales dollar fpolicy concerning the current goods mocant transition, as is the development anis anticipated that Congress will be concurrent rail and truck regulation. The legislation in both of these areas.



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WEATHER AND CLIM

Problem. In the winter of 1976-77fering un der record low tem peratu res end a severe drought. This destructivetemporary change in normal world wthat within decades we will be ablepossibly a year in advance. The impconsiderable. Consider, for exampleknew what weather they would face a

At the present time there is no cnique There is general agreement tho




ALLOCATING THE SPECTRUM

Problem. In September of 1979, of the International Telecommunicationcerned with the international use of thethe World Administrative Radio ConferInternat ional Radio Regulat ions whithroughout the world. This Conference, consider all uses of the spectrum, will sthe spectrum for the rest of this centuryof national and international telecomm



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IMPLICATIONS OF IN

Problem. The number of oldeyears, the proportion of the total popupercent to more than 10 percent. Curby the year 2030 almost 20 percent of

Technological breakthroughs in thcrease American life expectancy thrdevelopment of alternative technologietend lifespan itself. Because these tecrates among the middle-aged and the total population could rise even more




CONTROLLED THERM

Problem. Currently the United Staon research into controlled fusion, with treactor by 2005. Although the potentiaconcerning cost, feasibility, and impacts thorough assessment of just what the wosion R&D. The purpose of this assessmenand the implications of a fusion economy

Controlled fusion is a nuclear reac joined in a way that permits capture anproduce useful power, most probably el



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TECHNOLOGY AN

Problem. Mental health and mhealth issue in th e United States. Mencent of the pop ulation; yet only 2% pmental health care costs $17 billionpercent of the total cost of health caretional product.

Physical, psychosocial, and sociahealth care needs, thereby improving Demands for such technologies wilreasons: an increase in elderly perso




TECHNOLOGY A

Problem. At least since World W

disappointment has been the idea thaelementary, secondary, and higher eduis also seen as a means of outreach to pneeds and to enhance the quality of lifesuccesses and failures in this area and athe employment of technology are paperience should be brought to bear ocable, microwave, communications satapes, discs, and many other new devel




PRESCRIPTIO

Problem. The use of prescription

approximately 400 percent since 1950. care dollar is currently spent on drbillion prescriptions every year at an ethe average, each outpatient physiciantions. The elderly acquire nearly threeas do younger individuals.

Used judiciously, many prescripment that helps people overcome or tunately, as much as 25 percent of p




FOREST RESOURC

Problem. Forests are dynamic sying capacity of the global environmenrenewable sources of energy and mathrough photosynthesis and ensuringwater by filtering degradable wastes, sprotecting against erosion and floodingapparently enduring, forests are in fact100 years for a tree to grow to maturitfect the availability of forest resources in

Forests cover nearly one-third of th



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HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES AN

Problem. The developing count

people, and more than one quarter ofLacking a decent diet and clean wateeasy prey to a whole host of infectioutremely high; the health status of adulin the Third World exacerbates the pvironments, mortality, and morbidity

People are one of the Third WorTo improve the health of those peopleand sustainable economic developmethat World.



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R&D PRIORITIES FOR

Problem. The agriculture induStates. Agricultural products are one in times of crop failure elsewhere in tto produce more food than we need htion and survival for millions of peogreat success stories of American tecRevolution, which has spurred such esome areas of the developing world. largely brought the Green Revolution per-acre of American agriculture has,




ALTERNATIVE MATERI

Problem. Increasingly, at many

present system of supply, use, and dispoagainst other important public concernty, energy conservation, environmental qflation.

Nevertheless, the production and ecentral to the U.S. industrial economyabout the availability of a continued exfuture demands.

Th d h fl h



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DEEP OCEAN MIN

Problem. A quarter of the wo

shore fields—about double the seabedthere is increasing interest in the unmanganese nodules.

Undersea petroleum drilling is record water depth for drilling reacheof advanced platform positioning, swater, and other newly designed eqbeen extended to almost 3,500 feet.

B th t l i d t




Problem.

ENERGY EFFICIEN

The transition from oil adirect solar energy over the next several crease in energy costs. This in turn wildustry to hold down those costs. Optionlabor for energy to installations of entirethe coming energy forms efficiently.

Industry is the largest single sector 40 percent of the Nation’s energy suppunderway in industry to increase energThese efforts however concentrate on ex



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ROLE OF TECHNOHOUSIN

Problem. As a result of the withe cost of housing, substantial segmbuy a home. A substantial body of rthat only a major shift toward capital-housing back to levels middle-incomtechnological innovations could have tion patterns, finance costs, and opemany contend that the regulation of tcapricious, and voluminous building c




OCEAN WAST

Problem. Nobody really knows hperts think current volumes of pollution disagree, claiming that the seas are robuamounts of discharge. Given proper hareasonable repository for some types ofwhich wastes the ocean could accommoleast destructive disposal methods should

Waste reaches the sea in many wayscompanies barge material out into the Avia long outfall pipes The ocean receiv



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TECHNOLOGY AND

Problem. Within the last deca

changes in national policy toward troles for technology to play in implem

Understanding of the origins of hincreasing. Improved standards of pproblems whose scope we were unawcent of school children are handicappof the U.S. population are severelyaverage lifespan, the impairments of Developments in medicine, health,



Assessm ent s

Energy, Materials, anti Global Secur

Alternative Energy Futures . . . . . Home Energy Use— ConservationThe Direct Use of Coal . . . . . . . . . Solar Power Satellites . . . . . . . . . .

Energy From Biological ProcesseEffects of Nuclear War. . . . . . . . .

Foreign Policy lmplications of Glo



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Assessments in Progress (Contin

The National Laboratories AsSocietal impacts of lnformatioTelecommunication Systems

Railroad Safety: Canadian CoThe Future Use and Characte

Transportation System. . . . lmpact of Advanced Air Trans

lmpact of Advanced Group Ra

Natural Hazards . . . . . . . . . . . Approaches to Risk AssessmMeasures of Quality of Life as

Technological Choices



Assessm ent s

ENERGY, MATERIALS, AN

ENERGY

Alternative Energy Futures

During 1978, considerable congressioprehensive study of the Nation’s energyviding a comprehensive picture of supplythe future and their effects on society, OTA is also analyzing various transitionon dwindling fossil fuels to a system fue



Assessments in Progress (Continu

the imp acts of the anticipated grow thtain. In this stud y, OTA is seeking a brwhat role it could p lay in the future

examining how coal production cancrease; and how negative impacts cahave on production. Specifically, thpresent and future mining, combusti(2) labor issues such as miner healttions; (3) factors affecting coal proenvironmental and transportation recombustion (air, water, and land); an

Solar Power Satellites



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Assessments in Progress (Continued)

areas elsewhere in the world. Becausemonths, OTA is pulling together existinoriginal research, but the study will be utire range of effects—direct and indirectlong term—rather than confining itself toto rapid quantitative treatment.

Nuclear war is not a comfortable supossible lies at the foundation of U.S. study will not pretend to predict what anrather it will give a sense of what kindsand of the nature of the uncertainties whsuch a war. A careful explanation of thereasons why many of them cannot be re




terests. U.S. foreign policy and poassistance in energy technologies, wil

Technology Transfer

At the request of the House Cthe Senate Commerce Committee, Oidentify the opportunities and obstaca range of appropriate policy respons

The project is divided into threbetween the United States and the Cogy transfer between the United Stransfer between the United States an




separately: integrated carbon steelmakin(includ ing “min i -mi l ls ” ), and a l loy / spresents unique opportunities and proble

The study is examining ways in whonstrations of new steelmaking techniquStates and by our major competitors. Itbarriers to the introduction of new techFederal programs and regulations (inclucontrols, and health and safety regulationrange of possible legislative solutions to and their impact assessed.

MATERIALS



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Materials and Energy From Waste

This study examines the potenrecycling resources from municipal sand analyze both the policy optionsimpacts of implementing such optionCommerce and the House Committeement considers: (1) markets for suchrous metals, glass, and energy; (2) srecovery; (3) the economic and techities for recovering resources; (4) ecfor recovered resources; (5) the effectof recovered goods; and (6) mandato




Opportunities and Vulnerabilities of Imported Nonfuel Minerals

Requested by the House Committee

dorsed by other House and Senate comfuture availability of selected mineral impthe domestic and international economieof U.S. reliance on foreign sources of from dependence on imported minerals w



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This report is also analyzing thevaccine as a preventive health measu

Further, this report is identifyingcines, such as consumer awarenessavailability and cost, incentives toresulting from vaccination, and GovAll of these factors need to be codesigning programs, either to prevent

Computer Technology and the Q

Physician training involves theplication of that knowledge in the cai t t h l i i ht b



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health and promote growth, this developmtechnological revolution in the productiessential components of that revolutionmechanization, and improved nutrition an

There has been a growing concern abiotics in feed has on the development recognition that some of these drugs caus

At the request of the Senate CommForestry, OTA is assessing the risks, reacontinued use of these drugs. Also being the economic contributions and impact odrugs. The effect on food prices of bannin




gies to manage pests. The third objand impact of U.S. advances in pestin developing countries.

Environmental Contaminants inIn the past decade, various food

toxic substances in the environmentnated livestock feed and products inof Virginia contaminated fish andtamination has led to actual or potsevere economic setbacks to the fcontaminated.

R d b h H C



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If regulation is desirable, who sshould it be?Who should own new life forms tbenefit mankind? (This involves i

rights and incentives to innovationArising out of OTA’s initial priority

focus on the use of applied genetics teccial / industrial processes and the preventdefects.

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These “other” renewable ocean currents, waves, and salinity gradien

OTA is comm issioning stud iesto pinpoint the status of the rese

already and in place in France, whean electricity-generating plant.

Disposal of Nuclear Waste

Although we are more than thrgrowing volume of high-level wastplant operations is almost all still inof this radioactive waste is essential pose a threat to human life for over 1




enhancing beneficial impacts and mifor local development.

Technological Innovation and He

Environmental Regulation

Regulatory policies to minimize safety, and the environment have becThe purpose of this project is to evregard to their effectiveness and effiction of technological change are comvironmental goals and with the goal ing this objective requires understantegrated with technical market and

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elude: economic, social, legal, and pdustry structure; governmental ussystems; and potential biological anmajor international issues such as: t

oceanic satellite facilities; emerging satellite broadcasting impacts.

TRANSPORTATION

Railroad Safety: Canadian Comp

At the request of the House Cdetailed comparison between railroand Canada The OTA comparative




Impacts of Advanced Air Transport Te

The civil aviation industry in the Uworld aircraft market for the past 40 yearsbase provided by NASA and DOD R&D,

technological development. This superiorisortiums in Western Europe, backed by thvelopments such as the A-300 Airbus.

Potential new developments in aviatto continue its contribution to the Nation’tion of the extent of Federal support of where long-term and high-risk R&D proje

Requested by the House Committee




natural hazards and their social, ecsequences. Staff studies and worktrends, and offered some policy owork based on the lifecycle of a natu

A five-volume preliminary analinclude:

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Confronting Nature: A PreRelated to Natural HazardsIssues and Options in Flood Cr i ter ia for Evaluat ing thEmergency Preparedness andCriteria for Evaluating the Imquake Hazards Reduction Act




more adequate expression of human impadelineating approaches such as social acU.N. and the OECD have also initiated simsolute necessity of measures other than ement in the Third World. To date, howevshould be measured and how, and 2) the the indicators can be presented in a useful

The overall goal of this project is to of life concept to technology policymaking

q An analysis of current efforts by the private sector to develop variosocial accounting



Comple t ed As

Application of Solar Technology to ToA Technology Assessment of Coal SluEnhanced Oli Recovery Potential in thGas Potential From Devonian Shales oAnalysis of the Proposed National EneNuclear Proliferation and SafeguardsA Review of the U.S. Environmental P

Research Outlook—1976=80Comparative Analysis of the 1976 ERDAn Analysis of the ERDA Plan and ProgAn Analysis identifying issues in the F

OTA Priorities 1979, With Brief Descriptions of Priorities and of Assessments in Progress

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