El desarrollo hist orico-epistemol ogico de la derivada en ...
Ori Cohen orico@skyrider
description
Transcript of Ori Cohen orico@skyrider
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Today’s Separate Worlds
The network of users is the destination
(+) User-centric(+) Personal broadcasting & sharing(+) Searches users (+) Data collection is horizontal(+) Shared distribution costs
(−) Poor (although high usage) applications(−) Activity, users & architecture not commercialized(−) Disorganized, uncontrolled
The site is the destination
(−) Portal/vertical centric(−) Publishing vs. sharing orientation(−) Searches machines(−) Data collection is vertical(−) Centralized distribution costs
(+) Well developed, high value applications(+) Commercialization ecosystem(+) Organized and controlled
WEB P2P
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P2P Market Sizing - Application Downloads
All Time Downloads (MM)
Daily Downloads(000)
eMuleBitTorrentAzureusAres GalaxyDC++Shareaza
321150(1)
1451044538
420-
199721522
153-
732758
Annual Run Rate
(MM)
SoftwareRank
123456
Mo Unique Visitors (2) 6MM
Conversion(3) 50%
Mo Downloads3MM
Est Downloads (1) = 181MM
Total P2P App Downloads = 900MM
Downloads (MM)
1. Morpheus2. Limewire 3. iMesh4. BitComet5. BearShare
1681291144527
Software
Est Annual Run Rate (MM)
Total P2P App Downloads = 600MM
SourceForge.Net – P2P Downloads
Download.com – P2P Downloads Limewire.com – Site Downloads
(1) Company published figure.(2) Comscore, April 2007 data.(3) Skyrider estimate.(4) Skyrider estimate accounting for multiple apps per user, multiple downloads per user, such as upgrades and multiple machines.
• There have been an estimated 1.5-2Bn P2P client downloads in last 5 years
• At an estimated 7(3) downloads per user, results in approximately 250MM users
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P2P Market Sizing – Users and Searches
Daily NAmer
Gnutella
Daily Global
Gnutella
MonthlyGlobal
GnutellaeDonkey(
3)
TotalActivity
Searches
Unique Visitors
Searches/Visitor/Session
50MM(1)
13MM(1)
6(1)
100MM(1)
26MM(1)
8(1)
3Bn(1)
100MM(2)
8(2)
3Bn
100MM
8
6Bn
200MM
8
+ =
Gnutella
eDonkey
Total
• At 50% download completion rate on searches on these two networks, P2P files downloaded monthly is 1.2x than iTunes total paid download fulfillment since its inception in 2003.
• This Total activity analysis does not include Ares and BitTorrent.
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P2P Market Sizing – Benchmarking Activity
Daily Gnutella
Daily Yahoo(2)
Multiple Gnutella
/Yahoo
Top(3) Artist - AKON
Top 5 Artists
Top 25 Artists
All Searches
297,774
790,528
2,310,004
100MM
24,100
59,218
166,554
65MM(1)
13x
13x
14x
1.5x
• Monthly searches on eDonkey & Gnutella combined (6Bn) are 11% more than Yahoo! and Google monthly searches combined (5.4Bn)
(1) Source: Comscore, April data.(2) Source: Overture keyword bidding tool, except for all searches figure which is Comscore.(3) Top Artists in this column is top Gnutella artists as ranked by Gnutella search volumes.
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Web Engagement Measures
PVs/Usr/Mo
GaiaOrkutMySpaceFacebookBebo
Top 25 AvgCategory Avg(3)
873868660650376
345601
Social Networks
GaiaFaceBookPlentyofFishMySpaceBebo
Top 25 AvgCategory Avg
1,403793785587512
1,260764
12-34 Yr Old(2)
Sites(1) PVs/Usr/Mo
Sites
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P2P Search Marketing - Current
P2P CTR < Web CTR
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Evolution of P2P Advertising
• User-centric experiences and business models• Web-like advertising experience• Standard ad-units• Smarter, more compelling applications• Data-rich, data-run and data-monetized• No hidden users, no hidden activity, less hidden content
WEBAd.
P2P
Ad-basedmodels