Oregon Population Forecast ProgramRulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC)

Population Research Center (PRC)

1. Committee member introductions

2. Review charge of the Oregon Population Forecast Program

3. Review and discuss the Operating Principles document of the RAC

RAC Meeting Agenda

PRC Website: http://www.pdx.edu/prc

4. Make recommendations and discuss:– HB 2253—Section 2(4): 4-year city-county

coordinated forecast proposal– HB 2253—Section 2(6): Forecast intervals

for the 50-year forecast period and related age-cohort detail

– HB 2253—Section 2(10): Rules to implement the population forecast program

RAC Meeting Agenda continued…

1. Charges PSU with city-county coordinated population forecasting (reassigned from counties)

2. PSU provides county-level forecasts annually, and;

3. Coordinated city-county forecasts every four years

4. Process is dependent on local public input and public participation

Oregon Population Forecast Program

Oregon Population Forecast Program: 4-Year Schedule

*Includes 5-year age groups by sex

PRC Proposal

Year 1Number of

Cities

County Population

(2012)

Adopted Population

Forecast* (Year)Coos 7 62,890 1997Curry 3 22,295 1998Douglas 12 108,195 2009Jackson 11 204,630 2007Josephine 2 82,775 2008Klamath 5 66,740 2009Lane 12 354,200 2009Deschutes 3 160,140 2003Crook 1 20,650 2003Jefferson 3 21,940 2006

Year 1 Subtotals 59 1,104,455

City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed

Year 1

City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed

Year 2Year 2

Number of Cities

County Population

(2012)

Adopted Population

Forecast* (Year)Benton 4 86,785 1999Clackamas 5 381,680 N/AClatsop 5 37,190 2003Columbia 7 49,680 2009Lincoln 7 46,295 N/ALinn 6 118,035 1999Marion 19 320,495 2009Multnomah 0 748,445 N/APolk 4 76,625 2009Tillamook 7 25,305 2002Washington 13 542,845 N/AYamhill 10 100,550 2012

Year 2 Subtotals 87 2,533,930

Year 2 Subtotals (Outside UGB) 1,276,085

City-County Coordinated Population Forecast—Proposed

Year 3Year 3 Number of Cities

County Population

(2012)

Adopted Population

Forecast* (Year)Gilliam 3 1,900 N/AHood River 2 22,875 2008Morrow 5 11,300 N/ASherman 4 1,765 2003Umatilla 12 77,120 2004Wasco 6 25,485 2007Wheeler 3 1,425 N/ALake 2 7,920 N/ABaker 8 16,210 N/AGrant 9 7,450 N/AHarney 2 7,315 2008Malheur 5 31,395 2007Union 8 26,175 2003Wallowa 4 7,015 N/A

Year 3 Subtotals 73 245,350

Deliverables• Annual county-level forecasts [Years 1-

4]– 50 year horizon– 5-year age cohorts by sex

• Coordinated county and city-level (UGB) forecasts [Years 2-4]– Report containing:

• Includes information for all cities and counties• Summary of demographic trends, data gathered

from surveys, information collected from city and county officials, as well as the public, and assumptions about future growth

• Short technical document specific to forecast methods employed

Proposed Annual City-County Coordinated Forecast Approach

• Month 7—Release Preliminary population forecasts• Month 8—Hold 2nd public meeting:

Seek input for potential modifications Collect additional data and local input not

previously submitted • Month 9—Issue Proposed population forecasts and

begin Review Period

Outlining the Challenge Process

– Commences with the release of the Proposed population forecast

– 45 day review period during which a city can “challenge” the forecast by providing additional information to support proposed change

• To be considered:1.Person or organization able to submit a formal

challenge;2.Types of data that must accompany a formal

challenge, and;3.Other considerations

Population Forecasting Models• Cohort-Component model

– Disaggregates population into 5-year age cohorts and explicitly assumes:

• Likelihood of demographic events (fertility, mortality, and migration) is inextricably linked to a persons gender and age

• Housing Unit model– Population forecasts driven by total

housing units, occupancy rate, and persons per household

– Includes group quarters populations

Types of Data Collected• Primary data

1. Public officials, planners, and other city personnel

2. Housing developer survey

• Secondary data– U.S. Census Bureau

• 2000 and 2010 decennial Censuses of Population and Housing

– Enumerated population by age and sex, and housing – American Community Survey (ACS)

• Migration, income, poverty, and educational attainment– Oregon Employment Department, Workforce

and Economic Research• Historical and current employment data, and projections• General economic trends• Likely future employers

Types of Data Collected• Secondary data continued…

– Oregon Department of Transportation• Transportation infrastructure• Future plans

– Oregon Center for Health Statistics• Birth and death data

– Population Research Center (PRC)• Certified annual population estimates

– Oregon Department of Education• K-12 school enrollment data

– City, Regional, and County Planning departments

• Qualitative data not obtained in surveys

Local and Public Input• Two meetings

– 1st meeting (Month 2)• Explain forecasting methodology and process • Gather additional data and local input • Provide background of locally-specific

demographic trends

– 2nd meeting (Month 8)• Provide officials with proposed forecast results • Seek input for potential modifications• Gather additional data and local input not

previously received

Oregon Population Forecast ProgramRulemaking Advisory Committee (RAC)

Population Research Center (PRC)

Oregon Population Estimates Program

• Population Estimates– Refers to a point in time estimate of

population in the present or in the past• Usual estimate date of July 1• Distribution of state revenue to

communities– Primary data collection instrument:

• Annual Estimates Survey– Now electronic!

• Population Forecasts– An estimation of future population based

on historic and current trends, and assumptions about likely future events

– Oregon law requires counties to prepare and update coordinated population forecasts

• 20-year horizon

– Serve as the basis for growth management• UGB expansions • Planning-related issues (transportation planning,

school facility plans, and capital improvement)

Population Forecasts

• June 2011—Oregon stakeholders meet to identify and address concerns specific to population forecasting and Oregon land-use laws

• Some identified issues:– Cost– Different demographic methods– City and county coordination – Outdated population forecasts– Controversial and subject to litigation

Population Forecast Workgroup

• Presentation objectives:1. What is the Oregon Population Forecast

Program?2. What do the changes in population

forecasting mean for my city?3. What are the benefits of the Oregon

Population Forecast Program?4. In the coming months, what can I expect

(in terms of process) and how can I prepare my city to be ready for these changes?

Outlining a New Way Forward for Population Forecasting

• Updated, timely forecasts• 50-year time horizon for other planning

requirements• Consistent forecast methodology• Systematic incorporation of local and

public input• Reduction of challenges and lawsuits

– Adoption of PSU forecast is not a land-use decision and therefore, not appealable to LUBA

Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program

• Improved efficiency– Allows us to leverage data from existing

Population Estimates program

• Fully funded by state resources– Cost savings to cities and counties

Benefits of the Oregon Population Forecast Program