OregonOregon’s Economic

OutlookOffice of Economic Analysis

Tom PotiowskyPortland, Oregon

April 9, 2010

U.S. Recession Employment Losses

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

0 3 6 9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

48

51

54

57

60

63

Number of Months from NBER Peak

% f

rom

NB

ER

Pe

ak

1948 19531957 19601969 19731980 19811990 20012007 Recovery

Employment Losses (through March 2010)

20011990

1981

1973

1953

3

Oregon

• 10.5% unemployment rate for February 2010 (Feb US rate is 9.7%) is up from the latest lowest rate of 5.0% in April 2007 and down from the highest rate of 11.6% in May and June 2009.

• 35th fastest job growth at -3.03% for all states for February 2010 over February 2009.

• Total nonfarm employment dropped -5.7% year-over-year for the 4th quarter of 2009. Job losses (S.A.) from February 2008 to December 2009 (up 1,000 in January). The last six months’ losses averaged 3,250 per month versus 10,017 per month over the first six months of 2009.

• -0.4% personal income growth for 3rd quarter of 2009 over 3rd quarter of 2008. Annualized 3rd quarter 2009 growth at 1.9%.

• Oregon exports increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter compared to the same period last year but finished 2009 down 23% over 2008. (Export growth is positive Q/Q and is expected to follow the global economy)

Recent Oregon Economy Facts

5

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Energy

Housing

Community Services

Workforce

Natural Resources

Public Safety

Transportation

Health & Human Services

Education

Employment

Millions

Funds Awarded

Funds Expended

Oregon and ARRA

Oregon’s spending allotment is $3.9 billion, plus tax relief measures. Through December 31st, $2.5 billion has been awarded with $1.7 billion spent.

Source: www.oregon.gov/recovery

Unemployment Rate by Region, February 2010(Not seasonally adjusted for counties)

Source: Oregon Employment Department Office of Economic Analysis

10.3%

11.2%11.5%

14.0%14.7% 12.1%

Oregon: 11.4% (seasonally adjusted: 10.5%)U. S.: 10.4% (seasonally adjusted: 9.7%)

Unemployment rate by MSA designations, February 2010 Note: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro includes Clark and Skamania counties in Washington State

11.4%10.9%

13.2%

15.8%

7.4%

11.4%

13.1%

11.1% 11.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

OREGON Oregonmetropolitan

counties

Oregon Non-metropolitan

counties

Bend Corvallis Eugene-Springfield

Medford Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro

Salem

Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Office of Economic AnalysisSource: Oregon Employment Department

Unemployment Rate by County, February 2010(Seasonally adjusted)

Office of Economic Analysis

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ougl

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Jeff

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aG

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olum

bia

Cur

ryJa

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nL

ake

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gon

Lan

eS

herm

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amhi

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amas

Mul

tnom

ahM

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ur

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atill

aU

nion

Cla

tsop

Was

hing

ton

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row

Pol

kT

illam

ook

Was

coH

ood

Riv

erG

illia

m

Lin

coln

Bak

erMar

ion

Whe

eler

Ben

ton

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Source: Oregon Employment Department

Unemployment Rate by County, February 2009 & February 2010

(Seasonally adjusted)

Office of Economic Analysis

Cro

okH

arne

yD

ougl

as

Des

chut

esLi

nn Jose

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h

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low

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ntC

oos

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urry

Jack

son

Lake

Lane

Sher

man Yam

hill

Cla

ckam

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ario

nM

ultn

omah

Mal

heur

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oln

Whe

eler

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mat

illa

Uni

onC

lats

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ashi

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n

Mor

row

Polk

Was

coH

ood

Riv

er

Gill

iam Ben

ton

Tillam

ook

Oregon

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Source: Oregon Employment Department

Median income for Oregon counties, 2008

Office of Economic Analysis

Cla

ckam

as

Was

hin

gto

nC

olu

mb

iaY

amh

ill

Ben

ton

Po

lkD

esch

ute

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rro

w

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od

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erM

ario

nG

illi

am

Lin

nU

mat

illa

Cla

tso

pC

roo

k

Jeff

erso

nS

her

man

Jack

son

Har

ney

Bak

er

Co

os

Cu

rry

Til

lam

oo

k

Mal

heu

r

Lak

eJo

sep

hin

eG

ran

t

Ore

go

n

Do

ug

las

Un

ion

Lan

e

Wh

eele

rWas

co

Wal

low

a

Lin

coln

Kla

mat

h0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimate Branch

CLATSOP

WASHINGTON

MULTNOMAH

COLUMBA

DOUGLAS

LANE

LINCOLNPOLK

YAMHILL

TILLAMOOK

MARION

COOS

DESCHUTES

MALHEURHARNEYLAKEKLAMATHJACKSONJOSEPHINE

CURRY

HOOD RIVER

BENTONLINN

JEFFERSON

CROOK

WALLOWAUMATILLA

MORROW

GILLIAM

WASCO

SHERMAN

WHEELER

GRANT

BAKER

UNION

< $50,000+

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates

CLACKAMAS

Median income

$40,000 – $50,000

Oregon: $50,165US: $52,029

Less than $40,000

Median Income, 2008

Poverty rate for Oregon counties, 2008

Office of Economic Analysis

Mal

heu

r

Jose

ph

ine

Lak

eC

oo

s

Was

coK

lam

ath

Bak

er

Wh

eele

rL

inco

ln

Jeff

erso

nS

her

man

Jack

son

Har

ney

Mar

ion

Lan

eB

ento

n

Til

lam

oo

kG

ran

t

Um

atil

la

Do

ug

las

Mo

rro

w

Cla

tso

p

Ho

od

Riv

er

Cro

ok

Yam

hil

l

Po

lk

Gil

liam

Co

lum

bia

Des

chu

tes

Was

hin

gto

nOre

go

n

Un

ion

Cla

ckam

as

Lin

n

Cu

rry

Wal

low

a

Mu

ltn

om

ah0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Estimate Branch

CLATSOP

WASHINGTON

MULTNOMAH

COLUMBIA

DOUGLAS

LANE

LINCOLNPOLK

YAMHILL

TILLAMOOK

MARION

COOS

DESCHUTES

MALHEURHARNEYLAKEKLAMATHJACKSONJOSEPHINE

CURRY

HOOD RIVER

BENTON LINN

JEFFERSON

CROOK

WALLOWAUMATILLAMORROW

GILLIAM

WASCO

SHERMAN

WHEELER

GRANT

BAKER

UNION

> 17 %

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates

CLACKAMAS

% of personsunder poverty

15 – 17 %

Less than 12 %

Oregon: 13.5%US: 13.2%

12 – 15 %

Poverty Rate by County, 2008($20,650 for family of 4)

Annual Population Growth Rate for Oregon and Metropolitan Areas

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Oregon Metropolitancounties

Non-metropolitan

counties

Bend Medford Portland-Beaverton

Salem Corvallis Eugene-Springfield

Per

cent

cha

nge

2000-09 2008-09

Office of Economic AnalysisSource: U. S. Census Bureau; and PSU

DeschutesCrook

JeffersonWashington

JacksonMorrow

ClackamasYamhill

OregonMarion

ColumbiaBenton

JosephinePolk

MultnomahTillamookLaneLinn

Hood RiverClatsop

DouglasKlamathUnion

UmatillaWheelerLake

WascoHarney

CurryLincolnCoosMalheur

GilliamBaker

WallowaGrant

Sherman

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; PRC, PSU Office of Economic Analysis

Oregon county population change: April 1, 2000 - July 1, 2009

MARION

County Population Growth, April 1, 2000-July 1, 2009

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Census 2000, and Population Research Center, Portland State University 2009

CLATSOP

WASHINGTON

MULTNOMAH

COLUMBIA

DOUGLAS

LANE

LINCOLN

POLK

TILLAMOOK

COOS

DESCHUTES

MALHEURHARNEYLAKEKLAMATHJACKSONJOSEPHINE

CURRY

HOOD RIVER

BENTON LINN

JEFFERSON

CROOK

WALLOWAUMATILLA

MORROWGILLIAM

WASCO

SHERMAN

WHEELER

GRANT

BAKER

UNIONCLACKAMAS

Below 0% 5 to 10 %0 to 5 % 10 to 20 % Over 40 %

YAMHILL

Percent of elderly (65+) in population, 2009

Office of Economic Analysis

Cu

rry

Wh

eele

r

Sh

erm

anW

allo

wa

Til

lam

oo

kG

illi

am

Bak

er

Lin

coln

Jose

ph

ine

Co

os

Lak

e

Do

ug

las

Gra

nt

Har

ney

Was

coJa

ckso

n

Un

ion

Cla

tso

pK

lam

ath

Po

lk

Jeff

erso

n

Um

atil

laO

RE

GO

N

Ho

od

Riv

er

Cla

ckam

asM

ario

n

Yam

hil

lB

ento

n

Mo

rro

w

Mu

ltn

om

ah

Co

lum

bia

Lin

n

Was

hin

gto

n

Mal

heu

r

Cro

ok

Des

chu

tes

Lan

e0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Source: PRC, Portland State University

Elderly (age 65+) as a percent of total population, 2009

Source: PRC/PSU Office of Economic Analysis

13-16%

9-13%

20-30%

16-20%

Historical Comparison

Recession 1981-82 1980-82 1990-91 2001 2008-?? *

U.S. Oregon U.S. Oregon U.S. Oregon U.S. Oregon

Employment

Loss (in 000s) 2,734.3 123.3 1,498.3 12.3 2,657.3 60.1 7,020.3 150.2

% Change (2.99) (11.50) (1.37) (0.97) (2.01) (3.69) (5.09) (8.64)

Duration

Peak-to-Trough 5 Qtrs 12 Qtrs 5 Qtrs 3 Qtrs 9 Qtrs 10 Qtrs 8 Qtrs 8 Qtrs

Return to Peak 8 Qtrs 28 Qtrs 10 Qtrs 5 Qtrs 15 Qtrs 16 Qtrs 20 Qtrs 24 Qtrs

* Estimates based on Global Insight and OEA forecasts

Historical Comparison(through February 2010)

Oregon Employment Loss by Recession

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88

Number of Months from Employment Peak

% J

ob

Lo

ss f

rom

Pea

k E

mp

loym

ent

1948 1953 19571960 1969 19731980 1990 20012007 Recovery

19731969 1960 1948

19531990

2001 1980

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1,600,000

1,700,000

1,800,000

1,900,000

1990Q1 1992Q1 1994Q1 1996Q1 1998Q1 2000Q1 2002Q1 2004Q1 2006Q1 2008Q1 2010Q1 2012Q1 2014Q1

Oregon’s Lost Decade?

2000 Q11,605,857

2003 Q21,567,494

2010 Q11,588,089

2010 Q41,602,375

2008 Q11,738,243

2000 Q41,627,407

Industries Beginning to Sort (4th Quarter 2009)

Nat. Resources

Construction

Wood Products

Metals & Machinery

Electronics

Trans. Equipment

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

T/W/Util

Information

Finance

Prof. & Bus. Services

Educational Services

Health Services

Leisure & HospitalityGovt excl Education

Public Education

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%Year-over-year % change

Qtr-

to-q

tr %

chan

ge

Contracting Newly Slowing

Newly Expanding Expanding

Initial Claims(through February 2010)

Initial Claims per 1,000 Labor Force (SA)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1987M01 1989M01 1991M01 1993M01 1995M01 1997M01 1999M01 2001M01 2003M01 2005M01 2007M01 2009M01

Oregon

U.S.

24

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Housing Starts (000s, Left Axis)

Percent Change (Right Axis)

Oregon Housing Starts

25

Housing Starts: Oregon & U.S.

Office of Economic Analysis

Housing Starts Index (1973-2007 Average = 100)

0

50

100

150

200

1973

Q1

1975

Q1

1977

Q1

1979

Q1

1981

Q1

1983

Q1

1985

Q1

1987

Q1

1989

Q1

1991

Q1

1993

Q1

1995

Q1

1997

Q1

1999

Q1

2001

Q1

2003

Q1

2005

Q1

2007

Q1

2009

Q1

2011

Q1

2013

Q1

2015

Q1

U.S. (1.55 million)

Oregon (21,200)

Oregon (December GI)

Previous Oregon Forecast

26

Residential Building Permits Percent Change (December Year to Date)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Area Total Building Permits

Single Family Permits

Oregon -37.0% -28.1%Bend -49.7% -47.3%Corvallis -35.0% -35.0%Eugene-Springfield

-19.0% -28.1%

Medford -29.9% -16.8%Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton

-49.3% -27.3%

Salem -24.7% -24.2%U.S. -35.9% -23.7%

27

Residential Building Permits Percent Change (December Year to Date)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Yamhill -6.0%Washington -16.4%Malheur -18.5%Baker -28.3%Columbia -29.9%Clackamas -32.9%Multnomah -37.4%Josephine -43.5%Harney -45.0%Deschutes -48.1%

Oregon Housing Permits(through January 2010)

Oregon Housing Permits (Monthly, SA 3 MMA)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan

-90

Jan

-91

Jan

-92

Jan

-93

Jan

-94

Jan

-95

Jan

-96

Jan

-97

Jan

-98

Jan

-99

Jan

-00

Jan

-01

Jan

-02

Jan

-03

Jan

-04

Jan

-05

Jan

-06

Jan

-07

Jan

-08

Jan

-09

Jan

-10

Total Permits

Single Family

Mortgage Loans

• 6.88 percent of all loans past due (4th Quarter, 2009)– 2001 peak 3.72%, rising since early 2007

– Oregon ranks 8th best nationally (US average is 10.44%)

• 2.98 percent of all loans in foreclosure (4th Quarter, 2009)– Higher than 2002 (1.34%) and rising since late 2006

– Oregon ranks 25th best nationally (US average is 4.58%)

• Combined 9.86 percent ranks 10th best nationally– US average is 15.02 percent

Source: Mortgage Broker’s Association

Oregon was Late to the Run Up in Prices (Jan 2005 - Dec 2009)

Source: LoanPerformance

Housing Price Index(12-month percentage changes)

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

DEC-09JUN-09DEC-08JUN-08DEC-07JUN-07DEC-06JUN-06DEC-05JUN-05

Oregon CaliforniaWashington IdahoArizona Nevada

CA

NV

ID

AZ

OR

WA

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Selected Oregon MSA House Price Appreciations

Annual Percentage Change in FHFA MSA House Price Indexes through 2009 Q4

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency

Medford

PDX-Vanc-Bevrtn

Bend

Salem

Eugene-Springfield

Leading Indicators10 of 11 Indicators are Positive

Oregon Index of Leading Indicators(Six-Month Annualized Percent Change, through February 2010)

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-10.0%

-6.7%

-3.3%

0.0%

3.3%

6.7%

10.0%

Leading Index (Left Axis) Diffusion Index <50 Nonfarm Employment (Right Axis)

Recession in Oregon

33

Oregon Exports

Oregon Exports by Industry

  2008 Q4 2009 Q4 Y/Y % Change

Total All Industries 4,237.9 4,374.9 3.2%

Computer And Electronic Products

1,805.1 1,995.3 10.5%

Agricultural Products

543.6 712.6 31.1%

Machinery, Except Electrical

301.2 333.8 10.8%

Chemicals 420.9 289.0 -31.3%

Transportation Equipment

245.4 211.7 -13.7%

Waste And Scrap 79.7 112.5 41.1%

Primary Metal Manufacturing

168.3 101.9 -39.5%

Food And Kindred Products

94.2 108.2 14.9%

Wood Products 96.1 94.6 -1.5%

Paper 103.9 60.9 -41.4%

Oregon's Total Exports (1Q 1997 - 4Q 2009, current dollars)

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

Q1

19

97

Q3

19

97

Q1

19

98

Q3

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q3

19

99

Q1

20

00

Q3

20

00

Q1

20

01

Q3

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q3

20

02

Q1

20

03

Q3

20

03

Q1

20

04

Q3

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q3

20

05

Q1

20

06

Q3

20

06

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

09

($ m

illi

on

)

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

(% c

ha

ng

e)

Year-over-year percent change(right scale)

Total Exports(left scale)

34

Exports by Industry

Oregon Exports by Major Industry(1Q 1997 - 4Q 2009, current dollars)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

Q1 1997

Q3 1997

Q1 1998

Q3 1998

Q1 1999

Q3 1999

Q1 2000

Q3 2000

Q1 2001

Q3 2001

Q1 2002

Q3 2002

Q1 2003

Q3 2003

Q1 2004

Q3 2004

Q1 2005

Q3 2005

Q1 2006

Q3 2006

Q1 2007

Q3 2007

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

($ m

illi

on

)

Computer And Electronic Products

Agricultural Products

Machinery, Except Electrical

Chemicals

Transportation Equipment

Source: WISERTrade

35

Exports to China

Oregon Export Markets (1997 - 2009)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Vo

lum

e ($

bill

ion

)

All Other China

0.8% 1.4%

1.4%

2.7%

5.1%

6.8% 5.6%7.1%

6.5%

9.1%8.7%

12.8%

19.9%

Source: WISERTrade

36

Forecast ChangesOregon Total Nonfarm Employment (000s)

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

20

06

Q1

20

06

Q3

20

07

Q1

20

07

Q3

20

08

Q1

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q1

20

09

Q3

20

10

Q1

20

10

Q3

20

11

Q1

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q1

20

12

Q3

20

13

Q1

20

13

Q3

20

14

Q1

20

14

Q3

20

15

Q1

20

15

Q3

Mar-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Mar-09

May-09

Sep-09

Dec-09

Mar-10

37

Total Non-farm Employment(Annual Percent Change)

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.020

00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Oregon U.S.

38

Construction Industry Employment(Annual Percent Change)

-18.0

-15.0

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.019

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Oregon U.S.

39

Wood Products Industry Employment(Annual Percent Change)

-24.0

-20.0

-16.0

-12.0

-8.0

-4.0

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.019

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Oregon U.S.

40

Wood Products Industry Employment(Annual Percent Change)

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20OR Wood Products EmpOR % ChangeU.S. % Change

41

Computer and Electronic Products Industry Employment (Annual Percent Change)

-15.0

-12.0

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Oregon U.S.

Risks to the Forecast…

▲Upside▲A v-shaped recovery in other parts of the world▲Quicker, stronger release of pent-up demand▲Stronger growth in total factory productivity

▼Downside▼Premature policy tightening▼Aftershocks from the financial crisis▼China bubble?

►Other Considerations►Impact of Measures 66 and 67►Health care reform

45

Bottom Line for the Oregon Economy

• The “technical” recession in Oregon ended late this summer or late this year. Expect a “jobless” recovery.

• Job losses will continue into the first quarter of 2010, with only mild job growth the rest of the year.

• Housing prices may still decline into 2010 but looking more like a bottom has been reached in housing permits.

• Housing will not lead during the recovery. First sectors likely to come back: profession and business services, health care services, computer and electronic products, retail.

46

Biennial Growth Rates

20.6%

15.5%

12.8%

-6.2%

7.4%

23.6%

-0.7%

-2.8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

BI 1995-97 BI 1997-99 BI 1999-01 BI 2001-03 BI 2003-05 BI 2005-07 BI 2007-09 BI 2009-11

Note: Not including 2009 revenue actions

47

Biennial Growth Rates

17.0%

22.9%

11.8%

1.4%0.4%

19.0%

14.3%

-13.4%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

BI94-96 BI96-98 BI98-00 BI00-02 BI02-04 BI04-06 BI06-08 BI08-10

48

For More Information

Office of Economic Analysis

155 Cottage Street NE, U20

Salem, OR 97301-3966

(503) 378-3405

email: oea.info@state.or.us

http://oregon.gov/das/oea