Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2016
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Transcript of Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, September 2016
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic and Revenue Outlook: September 2016
September 14th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
…but Overall Growth Slows
16
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan2015
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan2016
Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug(E)
Sept(F)
Kicker Takes a Bite: Personal Income Tax Collections% change over year ago, 3 month moving sum
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Corporate Taxes Turn Down
17
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net Corporate Taxes ($ Ths, 12 month sum)
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
How Long Will Bull Markets Persist?
21
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
Stock Prices and Oregon Taxable Capital Gains
Sept 2016 Wilshire 5000 Stock PriceForecast (Right)
Sept 2016 Cap Gains Forecast ($ bil)
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Sept 2016 Forecast Changes Relative to the June 2016 Outlook(millions of dollars)
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
General Fund
Revenues -$1.3 -$56.2 -$135.4 -$32.3 $33.4
Other General Fund Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 -$2.2 -$0.7 -$1.7 -$0.4
ORDF Transfer -$0.9 -$0.7 -$1.8 -$2.5 -$4.3
Expenditures $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Sub-Total -$0.9 -$2.9 -$2.5 -$4.2 -$4.8
General Fund Ending Balance -$2.2 -$0.7 -$1.7 -$0.4 $0.4
Lottery Fund
Revenues $8.3 -$14.4 -$15.0 -$17.1 -$18.3
Other Lottery Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 $5.6 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Total Available Resources $6.1 -$67.9 -$152.9 -$53.6 $10.3
Forecast Changes
23
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2424
Forecast ChangesDifference from June Forecast, $ millions
6.1
-65.7
-152.2
-51.9
10.8
-$200
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
Personal Corporate Lottery
Other Total
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2525
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total Net Revenue
What Could Possibly Go Wrong?Potential 2017-19 General Fund Revenues*
No Recession
Slow Growth Rapid Growth Today July 1
2017
June 30
2019
$19.6B
$19.6B$19.9B$17.4B
Kicker Refunds Are Triggered Above Forecast,
but Below 2%
Kicker Threshold
Revenue ShortfallRevenue Losses
Potentially Known
Before Budgets
Are Written
$19.6B
*Two scenarios are omitted for simplicity:
1) No recession, but extremely weak growth leading to budget shortfall
2) A recession starting very late in the biennium following strong growth that triggers the kicker
Recession Begins
Forecast
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
27
Reserves
Effective Reserves ($ millions)
Jul
2016
End
2015-17
ESF $303.2 $382.9
RDF $372.8 $387.8
Reserves $676.0 $770.7
Ending
Balance $259.6 $259.6
Total $935.6 $1,030.4
% of GF 5.2% 5.7%
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
28
For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis