Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2016
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Economic and Revenue Outlook: June 2016 June 3 rd , 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis Mark McMullen Josh Lehner
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Transcript of Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, June 2016
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic and Revenue Outlook: June 2016
June 3rd, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Mark McMullen
Josh Lehner
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Update and Outlook
2
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economic Outlook
3
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Diminishing Slack
4
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. Weakness is Concentrated
5
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Global Weakness To Hit Oregon
6
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Intel Layoffs
7
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Intel Layoffs
8
9Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Affordability
Qualityof Life
JobAvailability
PolicyThe Housing TrilemmaCities face tradeoffs in terms ofhousing affordability, job availabilityand quality of life. Comparing the100 largest MSAs in the country.
Source: David Albouy, BEA, BLS, Census, IHS Global Insight, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
• Youngstown, OH
Detroit, MI •
Cincinnati, OH • Houston, TX •
• Atlanta, GA• Phoenix, AZ
• Omaha, NE
Oklahoma City, OK •
Des Moines, IA•
• Seattle, WA
Portland, OR •San Francisco, CA •
Boise, ID •Providence, RI •
Sacramento, CA •
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Supply is Low
10
11Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Rural Price to Income Ratio
> 4.5
3.3-4.5
2.3-3.3
< 2.3
Urban
Data: American Community Survey, 2009-2014 Estimates
Source: Census, Oregon Office of Economic AnalysisMap Template: www.clearlyandsimply.com
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Demographic Drag Abating
12
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
New Minimum Wage Legislation
13
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Trends
14
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Final Payments Tracking Low
15
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
So are Refunds, Which is Good
16
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Kicker Credits by Week
17
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015 Income Growth Down Across The Board
18
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Interest Cap Gains Dividends Pensions TotalIncome
Tax AfterCredits
Wages IRAs Business SocialSecurity
ScheduleE
Matched Returns, Full Year Filers, % change
2014 2015
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Corporate Taxes Turn Down
19
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Revenue Outlook
20
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Lottery: La Center, WA Casino
21
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2015-17 Forecast Evolution
22
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Forecast Changes
23
June 2016 Forecast Changes Relative to the March 2016 Outlook(millions of dollars)
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
General Fund
Revenues $16.9 $132.6 $134.9 $60.9 -$51.6
Other General Fund Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 -$57.1 $0.9 $1.7 $0.8
ORDF Transfer $0.0 -$0.7 -$0.7 -$1.3 -$0.6
Expenditures -$74.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Sub-Total -$74.0 -$57.9 $0.2 $0.4 $0.2
General Fund Ending Balance -$57.1 $0.9 $1.7 $0.8 -$0.6
Lottery Fund
Revenues $37.2 -$55.1 -$46.8 -$19.4 -$20.8
Other Lottery Changes
Beginning Balance $0.0 $39.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Total Available Resources -$19.9 $59.6 $88.2 $41.8 -$72.3
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2424
Forecast ChangesDifference from March Forecast, $ millions
54.1
117.4
88.0
41.5
-72.5-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2015-17 2017-19 2019-21 2021-23 2023-25
Personal Corporate Lottery Other Total
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
2525
Biennial Revenue Growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Personal Income Taxes Total Net Revenue
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Reserves
Effective Reserves ($ millions)
Apr
2016
End
2015-17
ESF $257.5 $381.6
RDF $371.7 $387.9
Reserves $629.2 $769.5
Ending
Balance $261.8 $261.8
Total $891.1 $1,031.4
% of GF 4.9% 5.7%
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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For More Information
Standard Contact:
155 Cottage Street NE
Salem, OR 97301
(503) 378-3405
www.oregon.gov/das/oea
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
