Oregon DEQ Report: Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010

7/28/2019 Oregon DEQ Report: Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010

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Oregons Greenhouse GasEmissions Through 2010:

In-Boundary, Consumption-Basedand Expanded TransportationSector Inventories

The following agencies collaborated on this technical report:

Oregon Department of Environmental Quality

Oregon Department of Energy

Oregon Department of Transportation

July 18, 2013


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Alternative formats (Braille, large type) of this document can be made available.Contact DEQs Office of Communications & Outreach, Portland, at (503) 229-5696,or toll-free in Oregon at 1-800-452-4011, ext. 5696.


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Oregons Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010:In-Boundary, Consumption-Based and Expanded Transportation Sector Inventories

ContactsOregon Department of Environmental Quality503-229-5696, Toll free in Oregon: 800-452-4011Colin McConnaha: [email protected] Allaway: [email protected]

Oregon Department of Energy503-378-4035, Toll free in Oregon: 800-221-8035Bill Drumheller: [email protected]

Oregon Department of Transportation503-986-4103Brian Dunn: [email protected]

AcknowledgmentsProduction of this technical report was a joint effort of the Oregon Department of Energy,Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, and Oregon Department of Transportation, withcontributions from several additional organizations.

Report authors:

Colin McConnaha and David Allaway, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality

Bill Drumheller, Oregon Department of Energy

Brian Gregor, Oregon Department of Transportation

Additional contributors include:

Andrea Curtis, Jordan Palmeri, John Mathews, Peter Spendelow, and Loretta Pickerell,Oregon Department of Environmental Quality

Robbie Andrew and Glen Peters, Center for International Climate and EnvironmentalResearch in Oslo

Perry Lindstrom, U.S. Energy Information Administration

Leif Hockstad and Andrea Denny, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Ramn Bueno, Stockholm Environment Institute

Andrew Yost, Oregon Department of Forestry

Stephanie Page, Oregon Department of Agriculture

David Turner, Mark Harmon, and Beverly Law, Oregon State University

Numerous Oregon businesses, associations, organizations, and other interested parties havemade valuable contributions through participation in advisory groups, committees, technicalreviews, and stakeholder processes that have been integral to all of these inventory efforts.Their input has been greatly appreciated.
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Table of ContentsExecutive summary ....................................................................................................................... 1

Findings ..................................................................................................................................... 1

In-boundary inventory .......................................................................................................... 2

Consumption-based inventory .............................................................................................. 2

Expanded transportation sector inventory ............................................................................ 3

Comparison of results ........................................................................................................... 5

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 6

CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories .............................................. 7

1. Overview ........................................................................................................................... 7

2. Why inventory emissions? ................................................................................................ 7

3. Greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon .............................................................................. 8

4. Why have multiple inventories? ..................................................................................... 10

CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electricity use emissions inventory ................................... 13

1. Inventory overview ......................................................................................................... 13

2. In-boundary emissions .................................................................................................... 14

Transportation sector emissions .......................................................................................... 16

Residential and commercial emissions ............................................................................... 17

Industrial emissions ............................................................................................................ 19

In-state electricity generation .............................................................................................. 21

Agriculture emissions ......................................................................................................... 22

Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework ........................ 23

3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 24

Electricity end use ............................................................................................................... 24Emissions per capita ........................................................................................................... 26

CHAPTER THREE: Consumption-based emissions inventory ................................................. 29


Classification of emissions ................................................................................................. 30

2. Consumption-based emissions ........................................................................................ 33

Changes in consumption-based emissions from 2005 to 2010 ........................................... 35

3. Additional considerations ............................................................................................... 38

Emissions by life-cycle phase and subcategory .................................................................. 38

Emissions by location ......................................................................................................... 42

Emissions by type of consumer and household income ..................................................... 43Emissions intensities ........................................................................................................... 45

Emissions intensities by production location ...................................................................... 47

Emissions by consuming vs. producing sectors .................................................................. 48

CHAPTER FOUR: Expanded transportation sector emissions inventory .................................. 50


2. Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle travel .............................................. 54


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3. Freight ............................................................................................................................. 58

4. Air Passenger .................................................................................................................. 60

CHAPTER FIVE: Comparison of the emissions inventories ..................................................... 62

1. Comparing In-Boundary and Consumption-Based Emissions........................................ 62

2. Comparing Transportation-Related Emissions ............................................................... 63

3. Calculating a grand total of emissions ......................................................................... 63

4. Change in emissions over time ....................................................................................... 64

5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 65

Appendix A: Data sources for the in-boundary inventory .......................................................... 66

Appendix B: Methodology for the consumption-based inventory .............................................. 67

Appendix C: STS approach to estimating transportation emissions ........................................... 68


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Executive summary

This report is a joint effort of the Oregon Departments of Energy (ODOE), Environmental Quality(ODEQ), and Transportation (ODOT) to provide a comprehensive and multi-faceted inventory ofOregons greenhouse gas emissions. Inventorying emissions is a necessary step for tracking progresstoward legislatively adopted goals for arresting emissions growth by 2010 and reducing Oregons

emissions to 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and at least 75 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.This report represents the next step in the evolution of greenhouse gas accounting in Oregon by includingtwo important changes to inventories performed in previous years.

The first major change is the use of data reported directly to the state via the Oregon Greenhouse GasReporting Program. For 2010, the in-boundary inventory changes from an entirely "top down" modelingestimate to a primarily "bottom up" aggregation of reported data from the emission sources themselves.These reported emissions data are derived from actual fuel volumes and electricity supplied in Oregonreported by the states fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The reported data also include emissionscalculated by the states largest industrial emitters.

The second change is the inclusion in this report of three separate inventories:

1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associatedwith the use of electricity within Oregon. This inventory is similar to those prepared by manyother states. Emissions collected in this inventory come from the combustion of fuel used inOregon, the processing and disposal of waste, the generation and transmission of electricity usedin Oregon, and agricultural and industrial operations.

2. Consumption-based emissions: Global emissions associated with satisfying Oregonsconsumption of goods and services, including energy. This inventory includes global emissionsassociated with the wide range of stuff that Oregonians purchase, including food, vehicles,appliances, furnishings, and electronics, as well as services, fuels and electricity.

3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the emissions associated withtravel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement. This expanded evaluation oftransportation emissions encompasses life-cycle emissions from fuel use by ground andcommercial vehicle travel, freight movement of in-bound goods by all other modes oftransportation (heavy trucks, railroads, ships, airplanes, and pipelines), and air passenger travel.

This report has been prepared to improve our understanding of how Oregon and Oregonians contribute toglobal emissions of greenhouse gases, the sources and activities causing the emissions, and how theemissions have changed (or not) in recent years. No single approach to inventorying these emissions isnecessarily the "right" method for all contexts. The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, andgovernments contribute to emissions - and by extension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - spannearly all activities that Oregonians engage in. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state, andas a consequence of both production and consumption. No single accounting method adequately capturesall of the emissions. Considering all three inventory approaches together presents a more comprehensiveperspective of how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and provides a more completeunderstanding of possible methods for reducing these emissions.

Findings

Following are results from the three inventories; they are initially presented separately, and thencompared.


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In-boundary inventory

Figure ES.1 summarizes the results of the in-boundary inventory. This inventory has been developed withdata from 1990 through 2010, and illustrates how the states emissions have changed during this periodwithin four primary sectors. Transportation has remained the largest contributor to the states in-boundaryemissions (22.6 million metric tons CO2 equivalent, or million MTCO2e in 2010), however emissionsfrom the residential and commercial sector have grown to similar levels in recent years (22.3 million

MTCO2e in 2010). Overall, emissions have declined since 2007, led by reduced emissions from theindustrial and transportation sectors.

Figure ES.1Oregon in-boundary emissions by sector , 1990 - 2010

Consumption-based inventoryEmissions from the consumption-based inventory are only available for 2005 and 2010. Table ES.1shows emissions by 16 commodity types across three life-cycle stages. The data from this inventory showessentially no change in total emissions from Oregonians consumption, though there are some shiftsbetween the commodity types. Just three broad commodity types represent half of all consumption-basedemissions: vehicles and parts (19 percent), appliances (16 percent), and food and beverages (14 percent).Emissions associated with vehicles and appliances are mostly from their use (e.g. fuel and electricity). Incontrast, emissions associated with food are primarily related to production.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

MillionMTC

O2

e

Agriculture

Industrial

Residential & Commercial

Transportation


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Table ES.1Oregon consumption-based emissions, by category, 2005 and 2010

(Million MTCO2e)

2005 2010Pre-

purchase Use* Disposal Total

Pre-

purchase Use* Disposal TotalVehicles and parts 2.6 13.0


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Figure ES.2Transportation sector emissions, 1990 and 2010

Figure ES.3Ground passenger and commercial service vehicle emissions, 1990, 2005 and 2010

(Million MTCO2e)

Figure ES.3 shows that per-capita emissions from ground passenger and commercial service vehicletravel have declined from 4.6 metric tons per person in 1990 to 3.7 tons in 2010. During this same period,

population grew from 2.9 million to 3.8 million. From 2005 to 2010, lower per-capita emissions as aresult of both improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled more thanoffset population growth and resulted in a reduction in overall ground transportation emissions fromOregon households and businesses, although these remain higher than 1990 emissions.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 2010

MillionMTCO2e

Air

Passenger

Freight

Ground

Pass. &

Comm.

Serv.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Total emissions

(million metric tons CO2e)

Population

(millions)

Per-capita emissions

(metric tons CO2e)

2010 2005 1990


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Comparison of results

The three inventories employ significantly different accounting approaches that encompass distinctemission sources and accordingly produce different characterizations of Oregons emissions. Given thedifferent scopes and data sources used by these inventories, it is helpful to understand the areas of overlapbetween them and the emissions sources uniquely captured by each.

Figure ES.4Comparison of the in-boundary and consumption-based inventor ies (2010)

Figure ES.4 illustrates how much the in-boundary and consumption-based inventories account for thesame emissions (albeit using different data sources and methods), and the emissions uniquely accountedfor in each inventory. In-boundary emissions for 2010 were 62.8 million MTCO2e. Consumption-basedemissions were higher, at 74.7 million MTCO2e. Together, these two inventories account for a much

larger amount approximately 102.9 million MTCO2e. Emissions shared between these two inventoriesinclude approximately 34.5 million MTCO2e. These include emissions from household use of fuels andelectricity, as well as in-state production of goods and services that are purchased by Oregon householdsand governments.

The in-boundary inventory includes 28.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the consumption-basedinventory. This is primarily the in-state emissions (plus emissions from electricity use) associated withproduction of commercial, industrial, and agricultural goods and services that are exported.

The consumption-based inventory includes 40.2 million MTCO2e that are not in the in-boundaryinventory. These emissions occur in other states and nations producing goods and services that areultimately consumed by Oregon households and government, and certain business purchases. These

emissions also include the out-of-state fuel cycle (pre-combustion or well-to-pump) emissionsassociated with producing purchased electricity and fuels.

The expanded transportation sector inventory captures the most transport-related emissions (31.2 millionMTCO2e in 2010). Like the consumption-based inventory, these emissions include the full life cycle offuels and the emissions from Oregonians even when they travel out-of-state. However, the expandedtransportation inventory follows both households and businesses, while the consumption-based inventoryexcludes most business travel.


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Conclusion

Emissions in the in-boundary inventory declined approximately eight percent between 2005 and 2010,while the consumption-based inventory shows no change between these years, even as population grew.As described above, improvements in vehicle efficiency and reduction in per-capita travel by light-dutyvehicles have resulted in a recent decline in emissions from passenger vehicles, while emissions from the

freight and air travel market segments have increased. Oregons legislated greenhouse gas reduction goalfor 2010 is to arrest emissions growth and to begin reducing emissions. These inventories demonstratethat for recent years, regardless of the inventory approach utilized, the 2010 greenhouse gas emissionreduction goal of arresting emissions growth has been met. Future inventories will determine if Oregonsgreenhouse gas emissions decline toward the 2020 and 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction goals thestate has established.


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CHAPTER ONE: Multiple greenhouse gas emissions inventories

1. Overview

This technical report provides Oregon greenhouse gas emissions data for 2010 and previous years in threeseparate inventories:

1. In-boundary emissions: Emissions that occur within Oregon's borders and emissions associatedwith the use of electricity within Oregon. Information on carbon sequestration is also included.

2. Consumption-based emissions: World-wide emissions associated with satisfying Oregonsconsumption of goods and services, including energy.

3. Expanded transportation sector emissions: An enhanced look at the well to wheelsemissions associated with travel by Oregonians and the impacts of inbound freight movement.

Understanding how Oregon contributes to greenhouse gas emissions is an important element in evaluatinghow emissions are changing over time, and how they could be reduced. Oregon residents, businesses, and

government contribute to emissions in many different ways. By providing these three perspectivestogether for the first time, this report offers the most complete picture to date of how Oregon andOregonians contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Why inventory emissions?

Inventorying greenhouse gas emissions is a necessary step in understanding how Oregonians contribute toclimate change, how these emissions change over time, and what actions could reduce emissions.

Several state policies also direct Oregons state government to evaluate greenhouse gas emissions. In1992, Oregon adopted a benchmark to hold carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 levels. This benchmark waspart of the states overall efforts to quantify progress toward a wide variety of goals, including Oregonsenvironment. More recently, the 2007 Oregon Legislature adopted greenhouse gas reduction goals andestablished Oregons policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The goals as set forth in ORS 468A.205include the following emission reduction targets:

By 2010, Oregon will arrest the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and begin to reduce emissions,

By 2020, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are 10 percent below 1990 levels, and

By 2050, Oregon will achieve greenhouse gas levels that are at least 75 percent below 1990 levels.

Developing greenhouse gas emission inventories allows Oregonians to track progress toward these goals.

The 2007 Oregon Legislature also established the Oregon Global Warming Commission through House

Bill 3543, and directed state agencies to provide support to the Commission. The Commission hasindicated on numerous occasions - including in itsInterim Roadmap to 2020 and2011 Report to theLegislature - that emissions inventories should be periodically updated in order to inform rigorousanalysis and to track progress toward the emissions reduction goals.

In 2010, the Oregon Legislature adopted a requirement that a statewide transportation strategy bedeveloped to aid in achieving the greenhouse gas emissions reduction goals set forth in ORS 468A.205.ODOT worked extensively with transportation stakeholders including state, regional and localgovernments, other state agencies, business, and advocacy groups to develop a vision of what it will take


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to substantially reduce transportation sector emissions and to identify promising strategies for movingforward to meet the vision. The first phase of the strategy development process was completed on March20, 2013 with the acceptance of the Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision forGreenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction

1 (STS) by the Oregon Transportation Commission.

Oregon's Environmental Quality Commission has also demonstrated interest in greenhouse gas

accounting and inventories. The commission adopted rules requiring reporting of emissions from a varietyof industrial and commercial sources and from suppliers of fuels and electricity. The rules established theOregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program that is implemented by the Oregon Department ofEnvironmental Quality (DEQ). The Commission also adoptedMaterials Management in Oregon: 2050Vision and Framework for Action which calls for periodic updates to Oregon's consumption-basedemissions inventory. The consumption-based inventory is also developed by DEQ.

In addition, the 2009 Jobs and Transportation Act and SB 1059 (2010) required the Land Conservationand Development Commission (LCDC) to establish light-duty vehicle GHG emissions reduction targetsfor all metropolitan areas of the state. These laws required DEQ, the Oregon Department of Energy(ODOE), and the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) to develop the technical analysis forsupporting LCDC rulemaking.

3. Greenhouse gas account ing in Oregon

Oregon has inventoried greenhouse gases for over 20 years, and has contributed to several innovations ingreenhouse gas inventories at the state level, as new data sources and estimation methodologies aredeveloped, and new policy and evaluation needs are identified.

Initially, Oregon and other states were limited in the types of greenhouse gas data that they were able tocollect, analyze, and use to prepare inventories. Emissions data that is measured or computed directlyfrom emissions sources was historically available only for the largest power generation sources; thisquantification method is called the bottom up approach. Oregon inventoried greenhouse gas emissionsfrom other sources using estimation and modeling techniques called the "top down" approach. The top

down approach uses techniques based on statewide energy use, industrial activity, and socioeconomicindicators, and appropriate emissions factors, to quantify emissions.

The historic state inventories focused on sources of emissions located inside Oregon's borders. Thisapproach draws on methods first set forth in 1994 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change foruse by nations in compiling official greenhouse gas inventories. The Panels methods serve as the officialstandards for nations to create inventories and track progress towards emission-reduction goals, such asthose established in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The U.S.Environmental Protection Agency adapted these methods for voluntary use by U.S. states; EPAsadaptation is called the State Inventory Tool (SIT), which Oregon uses for its top down inventory.

A focus on emissions from in-boundary sources offers several advantages. At the global scale, consistent

accounting by every nation of all in-boundary sources allows all national inventories to be summed into aglobal total without double-counting. Consistency between jurisdictions facilitates comparison andevaluation of changes in emissions over time. The in-boundary inventory allows us to compare the dataover time within Oregon and in relation to other states. By focusing on emissions within the state, the in-boundary inventory highlights opportunities for reducing the production of greenhouse gases within

1 Oregon Department of Transportation, Oregon Statewide Transportation Strategy: A 2050 Vision for Greenhouse GasEmissions Reduction, Volume 1, March 2013.


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Oregon. These reductions can increase the energy efficiency of Oregon households and businesses andreduce Oregonians use of the most potent greenhouse gases.

Oregon was one of the first states to expand its emissions inventory to include the emissions associatedwith the use of electricity in the state, whether the electricity was generated in Oregon or imported intoOregon from out of state. This approach enhances Oregon's ability to influence reductions in electricity-

related emissions through both conservation (reducing use of electricity, regardless of where the power isgenerated) and clean energy initiatives such as the state's Renewable Portfolio Standard. Includingimported electricity emissions has become increasingly common in accounting for electricity-relatedemissions at the state and local level.2 Washington and California also employ this practice.

For the 2010 emissions year, more precise greenhouse gas emissions data is available for the in-boundaryand electricity use inventory. Mandatory greenhouse gas reporting began in 2009 for major industrialemitters, and expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities. The mandatory reportingrequirement is a new and important source of bottom up emissions data that enhances ongoing efforts totrack Oregons greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, about 80 percent of emissions in the in-boundaryand electricity use inventory come from data reported to the state directly from industrial emitters, fuelsuppliers, and electric utilities. Integrating these new bottom up data with the top down data improves

the accuracy and reliability of Oregons greenhouse gas inventory.

Another new development is the use of different accounting frameworks, or inventories, coupled with theuse of life-cycle accounting techniques, to better understand how Oregonians contribute to globalemissions. Historically, inventories focused on estimating emissions at a single moment in time.However, the total carbon footprint of a product, and the cumulative impact of an action or policy, may bemore accurately characterized if the emissions associated with the product or action over the course oftime are counted, regardless of where the emissions occur. Unlike many other pollutants, greenhousegases have global impacts. For example, Oregon households have the same impact on Oregon's climate ifthey burn a gallon of gas in Oregon or a gallon of gas while driving through another state. ExtendingOregons inventories to include Oregonians out-of-state emissions is consistent with how Oregonaccounts for electricity use. The trans-boundary approach is being applied in Oregon in two ways:

accounting of emissions based on our consumption, and expanding our accounting of emissions from thetransportation sector.

Oregon's consumption-based inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with Oregon'sconsumption, defined in economic terms as "final demand" of goods and services (including energy) byOregon households and government, as well as business capital and inventory formation. Theconsumption-based inventory primarily uses "top down" economic modeling, but with a very differentgeographic framework than the in-boundary emissions inventory. It accounts for emissions in Oregononly if they are associated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregon households, governments,and businesses. It also estimates emissions elsewhere in the world, but similarly only if they areassociated with satisfying economic final demand by Oregonians. The consumption-based inventoryoffers a perspective on the carbon footprint of Oregonians, one that includes not only the emissions that

occur in the state as a result of purchase and use decisions, but also those emissions occurring elsewhere,with a particular focus on emissions that are "imported" along with the products that we consume. Thisinventory helps design strategies that lower the carbon intensity of goods and services consumed by

2 While commonly referred to as a "consumption-based approach" to electricity emissions, it differs from the approach used inOregon's full consumption-based inventory in two important regards. First, it only accounts for emissions at the point ofelectricity generation, whereas the consumption-based inventory described later in this report includes life-cycle emissions.Second, the in-boundary inventory includes emissions associated with all electricity used in Oregon, regardless of user, while theconsumption-based inventory only counts the emissions associated with Oregon consumption, defined in economic terms as"final demand" by households and governments, which includes direct use of electricity by households and governments.


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Oregonians and create incentives for Oregons in- and out-of-state suppliers to shift to productionmethods that reduce their carbon footprint.

The ODOT has developed a third accounting framework, one which expands our understanding of theoverall contribution of Oregonians travel to global greenhouse gas emissions. The expandedtransportation sector inventory divides transportation-related emissions into three travel market segments:

ground passenger and commercial service travel of Oregonians, air passenger travel of Oregonians, andtransportation of goods to destinations in Oregon. In the first two, it considers the worldwide, life-cycleemissions associated with moving Oregon residents and employees of Oregon businesses andgovernments. It shows impacts of travel decisions by Oregonians, regardless of where they travel. Such a"demand-based" approach to modeling transportation impacts is increasingly common in community-scale inventories. This third inventory estimates the worldwide emissions associated with all freight tripsthat terminate in Oregon, regardless of where they originate. Again, life-cycle emissions ("well-to-wheel") are considered. This approach shines more light on the movement of goods into Oregon that areused both by households and businesses.

4. Why have multiple inventories?

Oregon's greenhouse gas inventories are used by many different parties and for a variety of purposes,including identifying major sources of emissions, setting goals, identifying trends, tracking progress,evaluating the emissions reduction potential of various policy options, and communicating to the publichow the state contributes to emissions. Multiple inventorying approaches help meet these different needsand uses by providing a more comprehensive perspective on the states emissions.

The manner in which Oregon residents, businesses, and governments contribute to emissions - and byextension, the opportunities for emissions reductions - span nearly all activities that Oregonians engagein. These emissions occur both in-state and out-of-state as a consequence of both production andconsumption. No single accounting method adequately captures all of the emissions, or even all of themajor sources of emissions. While both the in-boundary emissions inventory and the consumption-basedemissions inventory span multiple economic sectors, and both tell important stories, they also each, by

themselves, omit significant emissions associated with Oregon's economy. The expanded transportationsector inventory offers a deeper dive into transportation-related emissions, but is silent on emissions inother sectors of the economy (although transportation is inextricably linked to every economic sector ofactivity).

Table 1.1 provides a summary of each of the three inventory frameworks and provides a high-levelcomparison between them. Each framework is described in detail in subsequent sections of this report.

Table 1.1Comparison of inventories

In-boundary Consumption-based

Expanded transportation

sectorGeneraldescription

In-state emissions andthe use of electricity in-state. Optionaladjustments for in-stateelectricity generationand for sequestration.

Globally-distributed emissionsassociated with satisfyingconsumption (economic finaldemand) by Oregon.

Life-cycle emissionsassociated with travel byOregonians and in-boundfreight travel.

Scope Economy-wide Economy-wide Transportation only


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In-boundary Consumption-based Expandedtransportation sector

Data currently

available

Annually since 1990 2005 and 2010 only 1990 and 2010, withsome interim data

Treatment of

transportation

sector3

Emissions from in-stateuse (sales) of

transportation fuels byall users (Oregonians,pass-through travel);combustion emissionsonly (not life-cycle)

Life cycle emissions of: 1) fuelused in vehicles by Oregon

households and government; 2)purchase of transport services(e.g., air tickets) by Oregonhouseholds and government; 3)all transportation emissionsassociated with the movementand supply chains of goods andservices consumed.

Life cycle emissions of:1) Ground transport of

people by Oregonhouseholds, businessesand government; 2) airtransport of Oregonians;and 3) movement offreight for tripsterminating in Oregon.4

Treatment of

electric power

sector

Emissions at the pointsof electric powergeneration for allelectricity used in

Oregon. Separateestimate of emissionsfrom in-state generation

Worldwide life-cycle emissionsof 1) electricity used directly byOregon households andgovernments (but not

businesses), and 2) all electricityused in the provision and supplychains of goods and servicesconsumed by Oregon

Only included whenelectricity is used fortransportation (e.g., lightrail) or in the production

of fuels used intransportation.

Treatment of

other sources

All other in-statesources are included(e.g., heating fuels,industrial processemissions, fertilizer andlandfill emissions)

Includes worldwide emissions of1) heating fuels used by Oregonhouseholds and governments; 2)solid waste produced by Oregonhouseholds and governments; 3)all other emissions from supplychains of goods and servicesconsumed in Oregon

Not included

Inventoryapproach

Historically "TopDown", 2010 primarily"Bottom Up"

"Top Down" "Top Down"

Primary

reduction

strategies that

affect this

inventory

Energy efficiency inhouseholds, businessesand industry, andreducing fuel use intransportation

Lowering carbon intensity ofOregonians frequentlyconsumed goods and services,and informing businesses andgovernments how they can lowertheir overall carbon footprint

Improving vehicles fuelefficiency, reducing thecarbon intensity of fuels,and shifting travel tomore carbon-efficientmodes such as transit,carpooling, biking, etc.

3 The consumption-based and expanded transportation sector inventories consider travel regardless of location

4 Specific to freight, the difference between consumption-based and expanded transportation sector emissions can be illustratedby an example. Consider a bakery in Oregon that sells into both Oregon and surrounding markets. The bakery purchases flourfrom a mill in Washington State, which in turn buys all of its grain from a farm in Oregon. The farm, in turn, purchases fertilizerfrom a producer in Idaho. The expanded transportation approach would include all of the emissions associated with all trips thatterminate in Oregon, including transporting all of the fertilizer to Oregon (even if some of the resulting wheat were exported foruse in other states) and all of the flour to Oregon (even if some of the resulting bread were exported for use in other states).Emissions from trips not terminating in Oregon would not be counted. In contrast, the consumption-based approach would countall of the transportation emissions up the entire supply chain (flour from Washington to Oregon; grain from Oregon toWashington; fertilizer from Idaho to Oregon; and so on) but only to the extent the flour (final input) is used by the bakery tosatisfy final consumption in Oregon. Whenever fuels are used, both approaches use life cycle ("well to wheels") emissions, thatis, the emissions not only from combustion of the fuels, but also extracting/growing, refining/producing, and transporting them.


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No inventory method is necessarily the "right" method for all contexts. For example, the in-boundaryinventory tells us about emissions within Oregon and from Oregonians statewide energy use, while theconsumption-based inventory tells us about the emissions associated with the production, use anddisposal of goods and services consumed by Oregonians. The in-boundary inventory tells us about nearlyall in-state travel, including pass-through travel, while the consumption-based and expanded

transportation sector inventories each offer more (but different) detail on vehicle and air travel byOregonians, and the emissions of inbound freight. Each inventory shows unique information, despitesubstantial overlap between the data.5 Considering all three inventory approaches together provides amore comprehensive picture of how Oregon contributes to emissions and presents a more comprehensiveunderstanding of potential solutions.

5 The overlap between inventories means that total emissions as estimated in each of the three approaches cannot simply be addedto each other to produce a "grand total". Doing so would result in significant double- or even triple-counting. Chapter 5 discussesthis in more detail.


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CHAPTER TWO: In-boundary and electric ity use emissions inventory

1. Inventory overview

Oregons in-boundary and electricity use inventory estimates greenhouse gas emissions that occur withinthe states jurisdictional boundary and that are associated with the generation of electricity used by

Oregonians within that boundary. This inventory includes emissions from the combustion of fuel used inOregon, the processing and disposal of waste and other materials, the generation and transmission ofelectricity used in Oregon, agricultural and industrial operations, and as a result of a variety of otherprocesses. Most of these emissions occur within the state, though some electricity used by Oregonians isgenerated out of state, and the emissions from this out of state generation are included in this inventory.Similarly, emissions from electricity generation occurring in Oregon that is used out of state are presentedseparately and not included in the statewide emission totals of this inventory.

This inventory may be especially helpful to policy makers at the state, regional and local levels as theyseek to identify and prioritize strategies to reduce emissions from in-state activities and from electricityuse. In addition, the inventory may help measure the efficacy of those emission reduction strategies putinto place. The inventory also helps to communicate how each sector in Oregon contributes to emissions

in the state, with a focus on emissions from in-state energy use and industrial activities.

The 2010 in-boundary inventory was conducted by ODOE and DEQ using data collected by DEQthrough the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, output and analysis generated by ODOE using the USEPA State Inventory Tool (SIT), and other estimates generated by DEQ. Greenhouse gas emissionsreported to DEQ represent a new source of bottom up emissions data that improve the accuracy ofefforts to track Oregons greenhouse gas emissions. The data reported to DEQ includes actual fuelvolumes and electricity supplied in Oregon and emissions from industrial facilities. The reported datawere integrated with the top down inventory data that ODOE has historically compiled using the SIT,creating a combined bottom up and top down inventory for 2010. The top down inventory is basedon a wide range of modeling, estimation, and quantification techniques using energy, agricultural, waste,and socioeconomic data. Integrating the two approaches provides a more comprehensive inventory

because it contains estimation and modeling of emissions in certain sectors not fully covered by thereported data. For example, emissions from agricultural activities are not reported to DEQ, but areprovided through the inventory work done by ODOE using statistics from the Oregon Department ofAgriculture and the modeling tools available through the SIT. Finally, all of the historical data from 1990to 2009, which is derived largely from the SIT and custom analysis work done at both ODOE and DEQ,was combined with the 2010 data to create a complete time series of greenhouse gas emissions data from1990 through 2010.

DEQs mandatory greenhouse gas reporting rules are contained in Oregon Administrative Rules chapter340 division 215. The reporting program took effect in 2009 by requiring reporting of greenhouse gasemissions from certain industrial facilities with emissions over 2,500 MTCO2e. Most of these facilitiesreport emissions from onsite fuel combustion and some facilities report emissions from industrial

processes such as cement production and pulp and paper manufacturing.

DEQs greenhouse gas reporting program expanded in 2010 to include fuel suppliers and electric utilities.Companies that distribute gasoline, diesel and aircraft fuels in Oregon report the fuel they supply and thegreenhouse gas emissions that resulted from the combustion of this fuel. Similarly, natural gas suppliersreport the volume of natural gas provided to Oregon end users and the emissions that resulted from thecombustion of this gas. These emissions from fuel suppliers are calculated using emission factorsdescribed in EPAs federal greenhouse gas reporting rule.


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Electric utilities report to DEQ the amount of electricity they supply to Oregonians and estimate thegreenhouse gas emissions associated with the generation of this electricity. Emissions from generation arecalculated based on the generating fuel type and facility characteristics when this information is known.Utilities use DEQs default emission factor to estimate emissions if the generating fuel type isnt known,such as for market purchases made by the utility.

Emissions data that are not available from the greenhouse gas reporting program are primarily obtainedfrom the SIT and from sector-specific analysis performed at ODOE and DEQ. The SIT represents a state-level representation of the national greenhouse gas inventory completed by EPA for the United States inaccordance with its international obligations. Where possible or practical the SIT uses the same datasources and methodologies as the EPAs federal inventory to estimate state-level emissions, althoughoften with emission or activity factors that have been specifically tailored for individual states. For themajority of emission categories, especially those that are energy-related, excellent data and factors areavailable from the tool. However, for other emission categories, especially for industrial processes andagricultural activities, the tool must rely on broader estimation techniques. In those few cases where state-level data are largely absent the tool will estimate emissions by taking the emission totals from thenational inventory and prorating those emissions based on population or some activity factor, likeeconomic activity. More commonly some state-level data will be available, such as material inputs into a

production process, and emissions can be calculated by combining those data with an emissions factorderived from the national inventory.

In order to use the highest quality data for the 2010 inventory, data from the Oregon greenhouse gasreporting program is integrated with either the SIT or analysis done at ODOE or DEQ. Roughly 80percent of the total emissions in the 2010 inventory are derived from the Oregon greenhouse gas reportingprogram. In a few cases the reported data from this program were judged likely to be incomplete based onhistorical estimates. In those cases the SIT data were used, although future revisions of the inventory mayprovide an opportunity for the reported data to be used once they can be verified to be complete andaccurate. A detailed accounting of the origin of each emission category in the in-boundary emissioninventory can be found in Appendix A.

Finally, the calculated greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to one of four key economic sectors Transportation, Residential & Commercial, Industrial, and Agriculture. Attribution of emission categoriesto each sector is based on EPAs similar sector-level reporting process in the national inventory. To theextent possible the EPA model is followed, although in some cases there are not state-level data that canbe applied in the same way (e.g., there are no state-level data available for electricity consumption at thefarm level). For energy emission categories that apply across multiple sectors, and for which only a singleestimate exists from the reported data, the data are attributed to sectors based on the proportion ofconsumption in each sector as found in the Energy Information Administrations (EIA) State Energy DataSystem for the same category. A variety of other assumptions are made to facilitate the sector assignmentprocess. Details on these assumptions can be found in the national inventory (Box 2-1)6 and in AppendixA of this report.

2. In-boundary emissions

Following is a discussion of the 2010 inventory, how it compares with prior years, and how the newreported data differ from the modeled estimates. First, we compare key economic sectors and their trendsin recent years, and then we examine the sectors in greater detail. ODOE has developed the in-boundary

6Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2011, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-13-001, 2013.


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inventories for Oregon from 1990 through 2009. This 2010 inventory is the first to use the data reportedto DEQs greenhouse gas reporting program as the primary basis for measuring emissions.

Emissions in the 2010 in-boundary inventory are slightly lower than estimates of 2009 emissions, thoughthe relative contributions of the states economic sectors are similar to previous years.

Table 2.1Oregon emissions by secto r, 1990 2010

(Million MTCO2e)

Sector 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Transportation 21.0 22.5 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 24.2 24.0 22.6

Residential & commercial 16.3 19.7 22.9 23.7 22.4 24.1 24.1 23.4 22.3

Industrial 14.1 16.9 18.1 14.3 14.3 14.4 14.0 12.4 12.4

Agriculture 4.8 5.2 5.1 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.4

Total 56.2 64.4 70.3 68.3 67.6 69.9 67.6 64.8 62.8

Table 2.1 summarizes greenhouse gas emissions by economic sectors since 1990. Transportation remainsthe largest contributor to the states in-boundary emissions, closely followed by residential andcommercial activities. The industrial sector is the third largest contributor, with about half the emissionsassociated with the transportation or the residential and commercial sectors. Finally, agricultural activityis a distant fourth. Overall, emissions have declined approximately eight percent or 5.5 million MTCO2ebetween 2005 and 2010.

Figure 2.1Oregon emissions by sector, 1990 - 2010

Figure 2.1 illustrates how the states emissions have changed in each economic sector since 1990.Emissions from agriculture have been somewhat constant, at slightly above 5 million MTCO2e each year.The transportation sector has fluctuated just above 20 million MTCO2e, while the residential and

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commercial sector has grown from approximately 16 million MTCO2e in the early 1990s to over 20million MTCO2e in 2000, and remained somewhat constant from 2000 to 2010. The industrial sectorsemissions rose gradually through the 1990s to a peak in 1999 of 19.3 million MTCO2e, and declined mostyears since then, and were just 12.4 million MTCO2e in 2010.

Figure 2.2

Oregon emissions by greenhouse gas type

Figure 2.2 illustrates how the states emissions have changed since 1990 by the relative contribution ofeach greenhouse gas type. The relative contributions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide havebeen somewhat constant, comprising 82.6 percent, 9 percent and 5 percent of the total emissions in 2010,

respectively. High global warming potential gases, composed of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) have risen from about one percent of the statesemissions in the early 1990s to over three percent in 2010. This increase can be partially accounted for bythe rise of the electronics manufacturing industry in Oregon and the increased use of air conditioning inOregon.

Transportation sector emissions

Emissions attributed to transportation are primarily from fuel used by on-road vehicles, includingpassenger cars and trucks, as well as freight and commercial vehicles. This sector also includes aviationfuel and off-road transportation such as farm vehicles, locomotives, and boats.

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Figure 2.3Oregon emissions from transportation fuel use

Figure 2.3 illustrates how the states emissions from transportation fuel have changed since 1990 by therelative contribution of each fuel type. Non CO2 gases include methane and nitrous oxide that are by-products of fuel combustion and fluorinated gases with high global warming potential from airconditioning and other auxiliary systems on vehicles. The other fuels category includes propane, natural

gas, lubricant emissions and electricity. Aviation fuels include kerosene jet fuel, aviation-grade gasoline,and naphtha jet fuel. Diesel & residuals include all distillate and residual fuels used for transportation.

Total emissions from transportation have changed modestly between 1990 and 2010. During this period,emissions peaked in 2007 at 25.7 million MTCO2e, and have since declined 12 percent to 22.6 millionMTCO2e. It is important to note the shift in fuel proportions from 2009 to 2010 for gasoline and dieselfuels. The 2010 data are from reports by companies that supply fuel in Oregon, while the 2009 data areestimates from EPAs State Inventory Tool based on data from the EIA. The reported data show anincrease in emissions from gasoline use from the 12.7 million MTCO2e estimated by EPAs SIT modelfor 2009 to 13.9 million MTCO2e in 2010. Conversely, the reported data show a decrease in emissionsfrom diesel use from 6.5 million MTCO2e estimated by the SIT for 2009 to 5.0 million MTCO2e in 2010.The reported data should be more accurate than estimates from SIT, but its possible that some of the

changes in emissions from 2009 to 2010 are partly due to changes in methodology, from top downquantification techniques to bottom up reported data. DEQ is working to ensure companies report fuelvolumes and emissions correctly. If DEQ discovers changes to the reported data or ways to improve theaccuracy of the data, it will update the values in this inventory.

Residential and commercial emissions

Emissions from residential and commercial activities come primarily from generation of electricity andnatural gas combustion to meet the energy demand from this sector. Other sources of emissions from thissector include small amounts of petroleum fuels burned primarily for heating, decomposition of waste in

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landfills, waste incineration, wastewater treatment, and fugitive emissions associated with the distributionof natural gas and from the fertilization of landscaped areas. Fluorinated gases from refrigerants, aerosols,and fire protection are also a small but increasing source of emissions from this sector.

Figure 2.4Oregon residential and commercial emissions from electri city, natural gas, and petroleum use

Figure 2.4 illustrates how the states emissions from electricity, natural gas, and petroleum use inresidential and commercial activities have changed since 1990. Emissions from residential andcommercial electricity use have followed a similar trend during this period, with residential useconsistently between one and two million MTCO2e higher each year. Annual variation in weather

influences both electricity demand and the supply of renewable energy from wind and hydro sources.Thus, it is important not to interpret too much from changes year-to-year and to assess these data forbroad trends. Emissions associated with electricity use rose during the 1990s, and have generally leveledoff since 2000 with annual fluctuation.

The combined emissions from natural gas and petroleum use in residential and commercial activities areapproximately one third of the emissions from electricity generation. Residential and commercialpetroleum use has slowly declined and natural gas use has gradually increased.

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Figure 2.5Oregon emissions from other residential and commercial activities

In addition to emissions from energy demand shown in Figure 2.4, Figure 2.5 illustrates the change in

emissions from other residential and commercial activities since 1990. Emissions of fluorinated gasesfrom refrigerants, aerosols, and fire protection use have increased steadily from less than 0.1 millionMTCO2e in 1990 to 0.5 million MTCO2e in 2010. Emissions from municipal waste landfills have alsoincreased, from 1 million MTCO2e in 1990 to 1.3 million MTCO2e in 2010. Emissions from most otherresidential and commercial activities shown in this figure have remained approximately the same between1990 and 2010.

Industrial emissions

Similar to residential and commercial activities, emissions from the industrial sector come primarily fromelectricity generation and natural gas combustion. Emissions from petroleum combustion have declinedsince the late 1990s largely because many facilities transitioned from distillate fuels to natural gas andfrom structural changes in Oregons industrial base. Emissions from coal combustion are nominal as there

are very few facilities in Oregon using coal onsite. Emissions from coal used to generate electricity, suchas PGEs facility in Boardman, Oregon are excluded from this section and presented in a text box below.

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Figure 2.6Oregon emissions from industrial processes and fuel use

Table 2.2Oregon emissions from industrial processes

(Million MTCO2e)

Industrial process 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Aluminum production 0.31 0.26 0.27 0.09 0.00

Ammonia production & urea consumption 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.11

Cement manufacturing 0.22 0.21 0.44 0.44 0.46

Food processing wastewater 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Industrial landfills 0.07 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.19

Iron & steel production 0.70 0.70 0.75 0.34 0.03

Lime manufacturing 0.09 0.16 0.15 0.09 0.00

Limestone and dolomite use 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01

Natural gas distribution 0.32 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.34

Nitric acid production 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Pulp & paper manufacturing 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44

Refrigerant, foam, solvent, aerosol use 0.00 0.06 0.14 0.18 0.15Semiconductor manufacturing 0.29 0.50 0.79 0.66 0.80

Soda ash production 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.01

Certain industries emit greenhouse gases from processes other than fuel combustion. In Oregon, theseindustrial processes are chiefly cement manufacturing, pulp and paper manufacturing, and semiconductormanufacturing. Emissions from these processes collectively account for approximately 2.5 millionMTCO2e in 2010, which is about four percent of Oregons total in-boundary emissions.

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Changes in emissions from 2005 to 2010 could be due to different methodologies, in addition to actualchanges in emissions. DEQs reporting program is designed to more accurately reflect Oregonsemissions than estimates from EPAs SIT used prior to 2010. In some cases, EPAs tool estimates statesemissions as a portion of the national data collected by EPA. Sometimes the state level appropriation ofthese emissions has proven to be inaccurate now that source-level reporting is available from the Oregon

Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program. For example, the SIT has estimated a small amount of emissions inOregon from aluminum production, while the reported data confirm there are no emissions as there is noknown aluminum production occurring in the state. In a few cases where the SIT is unable to providehistorical estimates of emissions the results from the 2010 inventory are applied to all years so that thereis at least an estimate of those emissions through the entire time series. In the future it is hoped that thesedata, as well as all of the historical industrial process data, can be refined and improved by the higherquality data from the Oregon Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program.

In-state electrici ty generation

Emissions from electricity used in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors representemissions from the generation of that electricity, regardless of where that electricity is produced.Similarly, emissions from electricity generated in Oregon that is transmitted for out-of-state use are

not included in these sectors or in the total statewide emissions described at the beginning of thissection.

Emissions from in-state electricity generation come almost entirely from combustion of coal andnatural gas. These emissions have varied year-to-year, and grown from approximately 2 millionMTCO2e in 1990 to 10 million MTCO2e in 2010.

Figure 2.7Oregon emissions from in-state electricity generation

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Agricul tu re emissions

Agricultural activities have consistently accounted for approximately 5.5 million MTCO2e since the mid1990s. In contrast to other sectors, most of these greenhouse gas emissions are from methane and nitrousoxide rather than carbon dioxide. Slightly more than 2 million MTCO2e is from methane that results fromenteric fermentation (i.e. digestion of feed from livestock). About 2 million MTCO2e is from nitrousoxide, estimated from nitrogen-based fertilizers used for soil management. Methane and nitrous oxide

from management of livestock manure have accounted for roughly 0.5 million MTCO2e since 2000.Other agricultural sources of emissions, including urea fertilization, liming of soils, and residue burning,produce less than 0.2 million MTCO2e.

Figure 2.8Oregon emissions from agriculture

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Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework

An additional perspective on Oregons contribution to greenhouse gas emissions can be obtained bytaking into account not only the emissions of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources, but also theremoval and storage of carbon from the atmosphere. The storage of carbon in trees, vegetation, and soilare the best known sinks but there are other important points where carbon is captured and stored, i.e.,sequestered, and therefore delayed from being released into the atmosphere. International greenhouse gas

accounting standards require this type of net inventory for national reporting and utilize complexprotocols to estimate these removals. At the state level, however, creating a net inventory is challenging.Few data are available that conform to state boundaries and the increased resolution necessary for state-level analysis taxes most data sources.

Oregon is fortunate to have access to several data sources for carbon sequestration that are scaled toOregons boundaries. However, there is no single definitive data set for forest sequestration. Differentapproaches utilize different modeling assumptions and techniques. The results from two modelinginitiatives at Oregon State University (OSU) are provided here so that users of these data can consult thereferences and decide which of the two data sources to use. Given the substantial year-to-year variabilityof these estimates it is recommended that multiple year averages be used wherever possible. A selectionof sequestration data estimates is given below in Table 2.3 so that those interested in creating a net

inventory for Oregon can utilize the data appropriate for their needs to do so.

Table 2.3Emissions estimates of carbon sequestration in Oregon

(Million MTCO2e)

Capture and storage of carbon in Oregon: the net inventory framework

Another perspective on Oregons contribution to greenhouse gas can be obtained by taking into accountnot only the emissions of greenhouse gases from anthropogenic sources, but also the removal andstorage of carbon from the atmosphere. The storage of carbon in trees, vegetation, and soil are the bestknown sinks but there are other important points where carbon is captured and stored (i.e.,sequestered) and therefore delayed from being released into the atmosphere. International greenhousegas accounting standards require this type of net inventory for national reporting and utilize complexprotocols to estimate these removals. At the state level, however, creating a net inventory is challenging.Few data are available that conform to state boundaries and the increased resolution necessary for state-level analysis taxes most data sources.

Oregon is fortunate to have access to several data sources for carbon sequestration that are scaled toOregons boundaries. However, there is no single definitive data set for forest sequestration. Differentapproaches utilize different modeling assumptions and techniques. The results from two modelinginitiatives at Oregon State University (OSU) are provided here so that users of these data can consult thereferences and decide which of the two data sources to use. Given the substantial year-to-year variabilityof these estimates it is recommended that multiple year averages be used wherever possible. A selectionof sequestration data estimates is given below in Table 2.3. These data can be used to create a netinventory for Oregon.

Table 2.3Annual emissions est imates of carbon sequest rat ion in Oregon

(Million MTCO2e)

1990 -2000

2001 -2007

2001-2010

Different

Estimates

OSU ORCA Project Forest Net Biome Production1 (modified toinclude product carbon sink estimate = of timber harvest)2

(24.42) (22.71) n/a

OSU Forest LandCarb Data (ecosystem estimate + product sink)3 (17.05) 0.47

OSU Forest LandCarb Data (same with 5-year rolling average) (19.78) (7.08)

Urban Trees (estimate from EPA State Inventory Tool land use module) (0.60) (0.73)

OSU ORCA Project Net Biome Production of Non-Forest Systems(croplands, wetlands, and other ecosystems)4

(7.72) (1.68) n/a

Disposal in Landfills of Waste Originating from Oregon (portion of fooddiscards, yard trimmings, wood and paper expected not to decomposebut rather to remain as carbon)5

(0.87) (0.86)

___________________________

1 Turner, D.P., W.D. Ritts, Z. Yang, R.E. Kennedy, W.B. Cohen, M.V. Duane, P.E. Thornton, B.E. Law. 2011. Decadal trendsin net ecosystem production and net ecosystem carbon balance for a regional socioecological system. Forest Ecology andManagement 262: 12

Peter Kelly, A Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Oregons Forests, Oregon Department of Energy, 2009.(http://www.Oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdf)3 Final Report - LandCarb Simulation of Forest Carbon Flux in Oregon; Mark E. Harmon and Frank Schnekenburger,Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, December 2009.(http://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.asp)4 Turner, D.P, W.D. Ritts, B.E. Law, W.B. Cohen, Z. Yang, T. Hudiburg, J.L. Campbell, M. Duane. 2007. Scaling netecosystem production and net biome production over a heterogeneous region in the western United States. Biogeosciences4:597-612.5 http://www.deq.state.or.us/lq/pubs/docs/sw/Number09Materials.pdf
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Zhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Zhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Zhttp://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdfhttp://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdfhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.deq.state.or.us/lq/pubs/docs/sw/Number09Materials.pdfhttp://www.deq.state.or.us/lq/pubs/docs/sw/Number09Materials.pdfhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.biogeosciences.net/4/597/2007/bg-4-597-2007.htmlhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.oregon.gov/odf/indicators/pages/indicatorga.aspxhttp://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdfhttp://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/GBLWRM/docs/Oregon_Forests_GHG_Inventory_OGWC_Report_Final.pdfhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Zhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Zhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=dave%20turner%20oregon%20state&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fir.library.oregonstate.edu%2Fxmlui%2Fbitstream%2Fhandle%2F1957%2F22032%2FTurnerDavid.FEM.DecadelTrendsNetEcosystem.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1&ei=Z


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3. Additional considerations

Electricity end use

Figures 2.4 and 2.6 in the previous section show emissions from the generation of electricity used in theresidential, commercial and industrial sectors.7 The following figures show the various uses for thiselectricity within each sector.

As with the emissions from electricity shown in the previous section, these emissions vary year-to-yeardue to changes in electricity demand and from fluctuations in the annual emissions intensity of theelectricity. The annual emissions intensity of Oregons electricity is influenced by weather andhydrological conditions that affect hydroelectric generation. The less power that is available from dams,the more electricity Oregon utilities must acquire from other sources, much of which is generated withfossil fuels. So, changes in annual emissions from various uses within each sector may have as much ormore to do with annual differences in the emissions intensity of Oregons electricity as with changes indemand. Thus, the following data are presented to compare the relative proportions of end uses forelectricity, both within a given year and how these proportions have changed since 1990.

Figure 2.9

Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by residential use

Lighting and household appliances have consistently comprised over half the electricity used in theresidential sector. Refrigeration and water heating are also significant, at about 14 percent and 9 percentof residential electricity use, respectively. Finally, heating and air conditioning have collectivelycomprised 20 percent of household electricity use, though since 2001 demand for air conditioning hasincreased while electricity used for space heating has declined.

7 State-level data are not available that would allow assignment of electricity use to the agricultural sector.

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Figure 2.10Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by commercial use

As with the residential sector, the relative proportions of electricity use in the commercial sector haveremained mostly constant since 1990. Lighting and a few other activities comprise just over 50 percent ofcommercial electricity use. This is very similar to the proportion that lighting and appliance use comprisein the residential sector. Computers and office equipment have represented a constant 8 percent ofcommercial electricity since 1990. Refrigeration and water heating have comprised 9 percent and 2percent, respectively. While space heating has consistently consumed 5 percent of commercial electricity,

cooling and ventilation have required nearly five times as much power, representing a quarter of allelectricity used in this sector.

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Figure 2.11Oregon emissions from generation of electricity, by industrial use

The industrial sectors electricity use differs from the residential and commercial sectors. Electricitydemand for the many types of electrical motors (machine drive) found in almost every manufacturingprocess has consistently represented half the electrical demand of industrial facilities. Facility heating,ventilation, and cooling (HVAC) and lighting have consistently comprised 10 percent and 7 percent ofindustrial electricity use. Electrical power for various industrial manufacturing processes has comprised aquarter of industrial electricity use. Finally, a remaining 8 percent of industrial electricity demand is

spread across a variety of other uses, such as onsite transportation and electrical boilers.

Emissions per capita

Following is a comparison of how Oregons greenhouse gas emissions compare to similar inventories forCalifornia, Washington and the United States. These data are shown on a per-capita basis for moremeaningful comparison.

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Figure 2.128

Per-capita emissions for United States, Oregon, Washington9, and California

10

Overall, Oregons per capita emissions have been consistently higher than Washingtons, both of whichare higher than Californias. The difference between Oregon and Washington may be explained by theformers greater reliance on fossil fuels for electricity; Washingtons utilities have consistently had accessto more hydroelectric power. Californias greater population, different climate, and more diverseeconomy make it difficult to identify specific reasons why its emissions are lower on a per-capita basisthan the northwestern states. All three states have lower per capita emissions than the national average.This is, in part, due to the western states cleaner electricity sources, particularly hydroelectricity.

8 United States data is published in the US EPAs Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 2010. Thisdata is available online at:http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html 9 Data from Washington Department of Ecology, available on their website:http://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ghg_inventory.htm Washington data is currently only available through 2008.10 California greenhouse gas data are published by the California Air Resources Board. These data are available online here:http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htm

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Metrictonspercapita

United States

Oregon

Washington

California
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.htmlhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.htmlhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.htmlhttp://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ghg_inventory.htmhttp://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ghg_inventory.htmhttp://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htmhttp://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htmhttp://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/inventory/data/data.htmhttp://www.ecy.wa.gov/climatechange/ghg_inventory.htmhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/usinventoryreport.html


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Figure 2.13Per-capita emissions for Oregon, Washington, and United States, by sector

Lower emissions associated with the generation of electricity used in Washington, compared to theelectricity used in Oregon, cause Washingtons transportation sector to be a greater proportion of thatstates emissions. Similarly, Oregons residential and commercial sector comprises a larger share of thestates emissions because the electricity used by this sector emits more greenhouse gases. Thetransportation sector comprises a smaller portion of the national emissions, with roughly commensurateincreases in shares associated with the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Once again, this islikely due to the higher average emissions intensity of the federal electricity mix as the United Statesaverage includes more fossil fuels than are used to generate electricity used in Oregon or Washington.

36%

35%

21%

9% Oregon (2010)

Transportation


Industrial

Agriculture

46%

28%

21%

6% Washington (2008)

27%

35%

30%

8% United States (2010)


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CHAPTER THREE: Consumption-based emissions inventory

1. Inventory overview

Oregon's consumption-based emissions inventory estimates the global emissions of greenhouse gasesassociated with satisfying Oregon's consumption of goods and services (including energy).Consumptionis defined in economic terms consistent with "final demand" of goods and services by Oregon households,government (federal, state, and local) facilities located in Oregon, and one small category of businessexpenditures: investment (including capital and inventory formation). This inventory includes globalemissions associated with the wide range of stuff that Oregonians purchase, including food, vehicles,appliances, furnishings, and electronics, as well as services, fuels and electricity. Consumption-basedgreenhouse gas emissions are included in this inventory regardless of whether they physically originate inOregon or elsewhere.

The consumption perspective is informative because, in economic terms, consumption is the root driver ofall economic activity. By extension, understanding the emissions associated with Oregon's consumptionprovides valuable perspective on root drivers of greenhouse gas emissions. The consumption-basedinventory also compliments other inventory perspectives. For example, while the in-boundary inventory

described in Chapter 2 estimates the energy used by Oregon buildings, the consumption-based inventoryshows the emissions associated with producing the materials and furnishings used during construction andremodeling. Similarly, while the in-boundary inventory includes the emissions at the point of powergeneration for electricity used in Oregon, the consumption-based inventory adds to these upstreamemissions, such as those associated with mining, processing, and transporting the coal used to produceelectricity.11

The consumption-based inventory reveals additional information about emissions. It estimates theemissions associated with all government procurement. It includes life cycle emissions of goods andservices (including electric power and fuels) consumed in Oregon, and explores where in the life cycle,and where in the world, most of these emissions actually occur. It can be used to understand howhouseholds with different consumption patterns and incomes contribute to climate change. Because

the inventory is derived from an economic model, it also estimates the emissions intensities (emissionsper dollar spent) of different types of consumption. This can be used to understand how emissions mightchange if consumers shift from high-intensity spending (e.g., air travel) to lower-intensity spending (e.g.,staycations). The inventory, and the underlying analysis that informs it, may also be used to helpprioritize consumer actions, to communicate to consumers how they contribute to emissions, and to helpbusinesses better unde

Oregon DEQ Report: Oregon’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Through 2010

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