Order & Violence (Political Economy of Development) · PDF fileOrder & Violence (Political...
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Order&Violence(PoliticalEconomyofDevelopment)
Week8:StatebuildingwithoutwarmakingChrisBlattman
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Week8objectives
1. Withthenearendofinternationalwarfareandriseofinternalwars,statesnolongerhavethesameselectivesurvivalmechanismpushingthestatetobecomemorecapableandextenditsreach– Wemusthopethetechnologyofstatebuildinghasadvanced
2. Unfortunately,thewayforeignassistancehasbeendesignedhasunderminedstatecapabilityismanyways:– Flowshaveexceededstates’capacitytoabsorbfundsefficiently– Reducedincentivesfortaxcollection– Weakenedaccountabilitydownwardtocitizens– Encouragedsuperficialmimicryofstateforms,unrealisticgoals,and(inweak
states)prematureloadbearing
3. Itisimportanttorememberthatthecapacitytoimplementisthescarcestresourceinastate,especiallyweakstates
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Week8objectives
• Still,foreignassistancehascontributedtoeconomicallyandpoliticallyfreestatesinunappreciatedways,bytippingthebalancetomoreopensocietiesatcriticaljunctures
• Futureforeignassistancecould(intheory)helpmakestatesmoreaccountabletocitizens– e.g.Cashondeliveryaid,migrationandremittances,etc.
• Intryingtobuildstatesandreformpublicsectors,remember:– Institutionswethinkofascausesofdevelopmentwereconsequences– Statecapacitytakesalong,longtimetodevelop– Statesshouldbestrategicinhowtheyspendtheirlimitedcapacity– Somestatecapacitiesareeasiertodevelopthanothers– Solutionstothehardestproblemscannotbeimported– Don’tforgetthateliteshaveincentivestostymieorcapturereforms
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Whatexactlyispromoting”goodgovernance”?
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“Goodgovernance”:Sobroadit’salmostmeaningless
Avaguetermusedininternationaldevelopmenttotalkabouteverythinginthiscourse:
• Theefficiencyandeffectivenessofthestate– Theabilitytoimplementpolicy– Thedegreeofcorruptionandpatrimonialism
• Theprocessofdecisionmakingor“whodecides”insociety– Thedegreetowhichpoororminoritygroupsareincludedindecision
making– Thedegreetowhichcivilsocietyisorganizedandenfranchised– Thedegreetowhichthepowerfulareboundbytheruleoflaw
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Whyaredevelopmentorganizationstalkingaboutgoodgovernanceandinstitutionsatall?
• Failingtoseeseeminglysensiblepoliciesimplemented,naturallypeopleininternationaldevelopmentaskwhy– e.g.vandeWalle’s diagnosisoffailedstructuraladjustmentinAfrica
• Achieving“goodgovernance”isseenasaprecursortogoodpolicies
• Slightlycynicalview:It’sawayfordevelopmentactorstotalkaboutpoliticaldevelopmentwithoutnecessarilyhavingtousetheword“politics”orunderstandhowpoliticsworks– MostUNagencies,includingtheWorldBankandIMF,donothavethe
mandatetotalkaboutpolitics
• Verycynicalview:IfIwantedtomakeagoalhardtoachieveIwouldmakeitthisvague
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Wehavebeentalkingaboutinterventionstoachieve“goodgovernance”inthreemorespecificways
• Lastweek:endingviolenceandestablishingbasicorder
• Thisweek:Buildingthecapabilityofthestate
• Nextweek:Promotingdemocracyandegalitarianinstitutions
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Inweek3wetalkedabouthistoricalforcesthatledtomorerule-governed,depersonalizedstatesthathadthe
capabilitytoimplement
“Stateless”Chiefdoms,
bands,andothersmallpolitical
units,oftenwithinformalsystems
ofrule
“Earlystates”Larger,morehierarchical,
patrimonial,oftencoercivepoliticalauthority(ies)thatmayonlylooselycontrolthepeople
“Modernstate”Morecentralized,rule-governed,bureaucratic,
depersonalized,politicalorgani-zations withmoresocialandsovereignterritorialcontrol
OlsonHerbst
Mukhopadhyay
TillyWeber
Fukuyama
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Today:SomeoftheideasthathaveshapedhowIthinkaboutstatebuildinginthe21st century
1. Howhasthechangingnatureofwarfarechangedstatedevelopment?Aretherepeacefulwaystostatebuild?
2. Howforeignassistancecouldhaveunderminedthedevelopmentofmorecapablestates
3. Amoreoptimisticviewofaid:Tippingthebalancetowardsmoreopeneconomiesandpolitics
4. Principlesforincrementalstatebuilding
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I.Warandstatedevelopmentinthe20thand21st century
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RecallTilly’sexplanationofhistoricalstatedevelopmentfromWeek2:Internationalwarfareasaselective
survivalmechanism
Threatofwar:Rulersforcedtodefendborders
Increasetaxcollectionandmilitaryrecruitment
Expandrepresentative
ruleandbureaucracy
Strongstatessurvive, theweakperish
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Butsince1945weliveinaworldofmostlylow-scaleinternalconflictsthatdonotthreatensurvivalofthestate
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Thepessimisticview
WhilethereislittlereasontobelievethatwarwouldhaveexactlythesamedomesticeffectsinAfricatodayasitdidinEuropeseveralcenturiesago,itisimportanttoaskifdevelopingcountriescanaccomplishintimesofpeacewhatwarenabledEuropeancountriestodo.
Iconcludethattheyprobablycannotbecausefundamentalchangesineconomicstructuresandsocietalbeliefsaredifficult,ifnotimpossible,tobringaboutwhencountriesarenotbeingdisruptedorundersevereexternalthreat .
—JeffreyHerbst,“WarandtheStateinAfrica”
“
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Reasonswhycivilwarsarestate-underminingratherthanstatebuilding
• Skilledleaders,bureaucratsandbusinessmenflee
• Cleavagesbetweencompetinggroupsmaywidenandbecomemorepoisonous– Moredifficulttoreachstablebargains?
• Theopportunitycostofwarcouldbeenormous– e.g.Bates,Coatsworth &Williamson:Whatdidwarandautocracydoto
19thcenturyLatinAmerica?• Waroccupiedmostgovernmentspendingandbankruptednations• Missedoutonanunprecedentedboominglobaltradeandindustrialization
• Thussacrificedmoderneconomictransformationandgrowth
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Nonetheless,therearesomeexamplesofstrongstatesandleadersemergingoutofcivilwar
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1962-86 1986-20??
JeremyWeinstein:Ugandaasanexampleof“autonomousrecovery”
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Specialconditionsunderlying“Autonomousrecovery”:ATilly-likeaccountofincidentalinstitutions
Needforrevenue
Statebuilding
Stateundermining
War Noexternalresources Termination
Raisetaxesbybuildingpopularsupport
Decisivemilitaryvictory
Negotiatedpeace
Raisefundsfromnaturalresources
Buildacoalitiontoconsolidate
power
Receivefundingfromexternalsources
Existentialthreat
Onlythestrong
organizationssurvive
Weakorganizations
muddlethrough
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Iftrue,thisimpliesthatmostoftheinterventionstocreateorder(discussedlastweek)couldthwart
historicalprocessesofstatebuilding
• Negotiatedpeaceanddistributionofrents
• Peacekeeping
• Trusteeship
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But“autonomousrecovery”impliesaslow,violent,andgloballycostlyprocessofstatebuilding
• Impliesweshouldexpectrepeatedcyclesofwarandineffectiveautocracybeforestronggroupscanconsolidatepowerandbuildamoreeffectivestate
• Becauseofinternationalpreservationofborders,thishastobeaninternalgroup– Strongneighborscannottake
overweaklygovernedterritory
• Also,therecouldbelargenegativeexternalitiesforothercountries
– Forsterinsurgents,pirates,andterrorists
– Scaresawayinvestorsandtourists
ForeveryEthiopia,Uganda,orRwandathereisaSouthSudan,DRC,orSomalia
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Reasonstothinktherearepeacefulpathstostatebuilding
• The“onlywardevelopsstates”viewlooksattooshortatime– Africanstateshavemadereasonableprogressinjust50years– Mighttheyalreadyhavereachedthelevelsofbureaucraticfunctioning
ortaxationofmany18-19th centuryEuropeanstates?
• Beinganimitatorisdifferentfrombeingaleader– Today’sweakstateshavemodels,andcitizenexpectationsarehigh– Theirelitesandpopulationsseemtowanttoemulatedevelopedstates
• Thereareotherincentivestomodernize– Intense,non-spatialeconomicandpoliticalcompetition– Gainsfromindustrializationandtrade– Citizenswhovotewiththeirfeetandmigrateout(andreturnricher)
• Today:Dowehaveabettertechnologyofstatebuilding?
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II.Howforeignassistancecouldunderminestatecapability
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Manypeopleindictaidbasedononecorrelation
Foreignaidandgrowth1994-2004
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Asithappens,thebalanceofevidencesuggeststhataidisassociatedwithgrowth
Arndt,Channing,SamJones,andFinnTarp."Whatistheaggregateeconomicrateofreturntoforeignaid?." TheWorldBankEconomicReview(2015).
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Aidhasalsobeengenerallygoodatdeliveringcertainoutcomes,suchasbetterhealthorlowermortality
• Healthgainscouldreducetheaid/percapitaGDPcorrelation,ifitincreasesthepercapitafasterthanGDP(thisdoesn’tmeanaidisabadidea)
Estimated#ofpeoplereceivingAnti-RetroviralTreatment(ART)therapy
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Andalargefractionofaidisessentiallypatronagefromrichnationstoclientstatesinreturnforimplementingcertainpolicies,andithasbeen
largelysuccessfulinthoseaims
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IndeedfewoftheMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs)weredesignedtobegrowthpromoting
1. Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger
2. Achieveuniversalprimaryeducation
3. Promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen
4. Reducechildmortality
5. Improvematernalhealth
6. CombatHIV/AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases
7. Ensureenvironmentalsustainability
8. Developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment
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Thus“Doesaidwork?”isonlyasensiblequestionifyouevaluateitbyitsobjectives
Mostdefendersandcriticsofaidfailtomaketheiraimsexplicit
• Relieffromnaturalandhumandisasters?
• Decreaseworstformsofpovertyandoppression?
• Redistribute?
• Spureconomicgrowth?
• Promotesecurityandstability?
• Promotenationalself-interest?
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Onlysomewhatrecentlyhaveaiddonorsstartedthinkingaboutstatecapabilityasanobjective
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Inthemeantime,poorlydesignedaidsystemshavehelpedtounderminepoliticaldevelopment
1. Assistanceexceedsabsorptioncapacity
2. Lowerincentivesfortaxation
3. Weakensaccountabilitytocitizens
4. Encouragesmimicry,unrealisticgoals,andprematureloadbearing
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Waysthatpoorlydesignedaidsystemscanunderminepoliticaldevelopment
1. Assistanceexceedsabsorptioncapacity
2. Lowerincentivesfortaxation
3. Weakensaccountabilitytocitizens
4. Encouragesmimicry,unrealisticgoals,andprematureloadbearing
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Easterly, William. 2008. "Can the West Save Africa?" NBER Working Paper 14363.
ODAasa%ofnationalincome
Howmuchaidcanastateabsorb?
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Somepossibleimplications
• Inmanyofthelowest-incomecountries,aidismorethanhalfofallgovernmentexpenditure
• Shouldweexpectthemarginalaiddollartobeeffectivelyspentinthisscenario?
• Suchlargeaidflowscouldactuallyreducethequalityofgovernmentbudgetingandspending,encouragingfiscalindisciplineinthefullbudget
• Especiallyifgiversfailtorecognizethestateasafragilelimitedaccessorder
• Likeoil,extremelyhighvolumesofaidturnmaythoseflowsintoarenttobedistributed– Encouragingthepatrimonialstatemorethanwouldbethecasewith
otherformsofrevenue,suchastaxation
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Waysthatpoorlydesignedaidsystemscanunderminepoliticaldevelopment
1. Exceedsabsorptioncapacity
2. Lowerincentivesfortaxation
3. Weakensaccountabilitytocitizens
4. Encouragesmimicry,unrealisticgoals,andprematureloadbearing
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Aidandtaxcollectionareslightlynegativelycorrelated
• Anextra$1ingrantsisassociatedwith$0.10lowertaxes
• Wedonotseethiscorrelationwithsubsidizedloans
• Bynomeansisthisnecessarilycausal
– Theevidenceisscarceandsurprisinglypoor
• Nonethelessthecorrelationisconsistentwithatheoreticallogic
Benedek,Dora,etal."Foreignaidandrevenue:Stillacrowding-outeffect?." FinanzArchiv:PublicFinanceAnalysis 70.1(2014):67-96.
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AsimpletheoreticallogicBesley andPersson (2013)“TaxationandDevelopment”
• Fiscalcapacity—theabilityofastatetoenforcecompliancewithtaxes—requirescostlyinvestments– Requiresup-frontinvestmentinabureaucracyandcollectioncapacity– Increasedtaxationwillalsofacesteeppoliticalresistance
• Analternativesourceofrevenueinfuture(aidorresourcerents)willreducethemarginalvalueoftaxrevenueinfuture,reducingtheincentivestoinvestinstatecapacity
• Someformsofassistancewillnothavethesamedisincentive– Loansandtherequirementtorepay– Shorttermaid
• Sadly,wehaveyettoseeverystrongevidenceonewayortheother,andarelefttoworkwithprovocativecorrelations
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Poorercountriestodaytendtocollectalowershareofnationalincomeintaxes
Besley & Persson (2013), “Taxation and Development”
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Besley & Persson (2012), “Public Finance and Development”
Althoughlevelsoftaxationinlow- andmiddleincomecountriestodaymaynotbesodifferentfromhigh-
incomenationsacenturyago
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Waysthatpoorlydesignedaidsystemscanunderminepoliticaldevelopment
1. Exceedsabsorptioncapacity
2. Lowerincentivesfortaxation
3. Weakensaccountabilitytocitizens
4. Encouragesmimicry,unrealisticgoals,andprematureloadbearing
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Aidcouldmakestatesaccountableupwardstodonorsnotdownwardstosociety
• Insomeeconomies,aidhasbecomethebiggestsectorintheeconomyandtheprimesourceofrevenue
• Oneofthescarcestthingsinadevelopingstatecanbethetimeandattentionofqualified,high-levelpublicofficials
• Theproliferationofdonorsandprojectsisamajorburdenforthesmallnumberofqualifiedpublicofficials,whocanspendmuchoftheirtimeattendingtodonorconcernsandmanagingaidactivities
• Theseofficialshaveincentivestogetmoneyfromdonorsratherthanfocusontheircoredevelopmentalfunctions,includingthedevelopmentofstatecapacity
Moss,ToddJ.,Gunilla Pettersson Gelander,andNicolasVandeWalle."Anaid-institutionsparadox?Areviewessayonaiddependencyandstatebuildinginsub-SaharanAfrica."(2006).
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Exit Loyalty
S
C
E1
01+L
ExitVoice
Loyalty
1– CL– V
Respond
S
C
C:S:
E– C1
0– C1+L
Exit Loyalty
Ignore
C
E0
1L
Howwouldmassiveaidflowsaffectthis
equilibrium?
Extractfromcitizens
Donotextractfromcitizens
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WhattypesofpoliciesintheWestwould…
• ReduceC?
• IncreaseE?
• IncreaseV?
• IncreaseL?
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Whatifaidbehaveslikeoil?
Someaidmakesstatesmoreautonomous• Nottiedtosizeorneedof
populationortopolicies
• Notaffectedbyexit– Fromtheformaleconomy– Fromoutmigration– Fromtaxevasion
• Impervioustovoice– Supportforclientregimes– Supportforanti-Communistor
anti-terrorefforts– SupportforUNvotes
Otheraidcouldmakestatesmoredependentoncitizens• Makingvoicecheaper
– Supportingelectoralprocesses,– Trainingoflegislatorsand
judiciaries– Supportforcivilsociety
organizations– Supportforfreepress
• MakingLdependentoncitizens– Assistancetofirms– Cashtransfers– Cashondeliveryaid
• Emigration?
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e.g.“Cashondelivery”aidAccountabletooutcomes,evenifnotcitizens
Birdsall,N.,Savedoff,W.D.,Mahgoub,A.,&Vyborny,K.(2012). Cashondelivery:anewapproachtoforeignaid.CGDBooks.
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Waysthatpoorlydesignedaidsystemscanunderminepoliticaldevelopment
1. Exceedsabsorptioncapacity
2. Lowerincentivesfortaxation
3. Weakensaccountabilitytocitizens
4. Encouragesmimicry,unrealisticgoals,andprematureloadbearing
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Mimicry
• Mimicryor“isomorphism”:theprocessbywhichoneorganismmimicsanothertogainanevolutionaryadvantage
• Sociologistshaveappliedthistoorganizationslikebusinesses,whichmightbegintoimitateformratherthanfunction
• e.g.ImagineyouwereastartupseekingventurecapitalinSiliconValley
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Mimicryofformratherthanfunctionindevelopingcountriesiscommon
• Politiciansandagenciescansymbolicallymimicastateorinstitutionalformformanyreasons:– Aspirationally– Toattractdonordollars– Toavoidinternational
condemnationorpenalties– Tofoolcomplacentcitizens
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
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Thephenomenonofautocraticelections:Highratesofvoterparticipationwithnomeaningfulcontestation
Miller,MichaelK."Democraticpieces:Autocraticelectionsanddemocraticdevelopmentsince1815." BritishJournalofPoliticalScience 45.03(2015):501-530.
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Whymightmimicrybeproblematic?
1. Whatifrich-country“bestpractices”aresuboptimal– Mimicrysuppressesinnovationandexperimentation
2. Formcouldbegintodistortfunction– E.g.Mossetal(2004)describingthegrowinggapbetweentheofficial
Ghanaianbudget(tosatisfydonors)andactualpatternsofspending
3. Encouragesprematureloadbearing– Setoverlyambitiousgoals– ”Fail”evenifyouachieverelativesuccess– Maybestatefailsforrealbecausetookontoomuch– Orcrowdsoutcorefunctionsofthestate
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
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Donornationsalsotendtounderestimatehowlongchangesinstateandinstitutionaldevelopmentcantake
• Evenhugeimprovementsinreducingcorruptionorstatepatrimonialismaresetuptofailwithzerotoleranceexpectationsandprograms
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Thesettingofoverlyambitiousgoalsisapersistenttheme
1960s:~2.5%
1970s:~3.5%
1980s/90s:~4.5%
GrowthrequiredtoattainMDG1:~5.6%
Actual growth versus goalsUN goals over time
Clemens,M.A.,C.J.Kenny,andT.J.Moss."ThetroublewiththeMDGs:confrontingexpectationsofaidanddevelopmentsuccess." Worlddevelopment 35.5(2007):735-751.
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WhatittakestomeetMDG2:Universalprimaryeducation
Clemens,M.A.,C.J.Kenny,andT.J.Moss."ThetroublewiththeMDGs:confrontingexpectationsofaidanddevelopmentsuccess." Worlddevelopment 35.5(2007):735-751.
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Theseareallimportantgoals,butevenifrealisticgoalsareset,whatistheconsequenceofhavingaweakstatepursueallofthem?
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals:
1. Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger
2. Achieveuniversalprimaryeducation
3. Promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen
4. Reducechildmortality
5. Improvematernalhealth
6. CombatHIV/AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases
7. Ensureenvironmentalsustainability
8. Developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment
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Capacitytoimplementisthescarcestresourceinaweakstate
• Theproliferationofdonorsandprojectsstrainsthecapacityofthesmallnumberofqualifiedpublicofficials
• Manydonorobjectives—freeeducation,primaryhealthcare,etc—arehugeleapsforstatesthatcanbarelyprovidebasicorder
• Theseprogramsandfundsareoftenrunbyorthroughthestatebecauseofconcernsaboutsettingupparallelsystems
• WhataboutconcernsaboutNOTsettingupparallelsystems?
• Whatbusinessdoesastatethatcannotrunthepolicehaverunningaschoolsystem?
Moss,ToddJ.,Gunilla Pettersson Gelander,andNicolasVandeWalle."Anaid-institutionsparadox?Areviewessayonaiddependencyandstatebuildinginsub-SaharanAfrica."(2006).
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Whatisstrikingiswhatisnot anMDG:Protectionfromcrimeandviolence,oraccesstodisputeresolution,propertyrightsandjustice
MillenniumDevelopmentGoals:
1. Eradicateextremepovertyandhunger
2. Achieveuniversalprimaryeducation
3. Promotegenderequalityandempowerwomen
4. Reducechildmortality
5. Improvematernalhealth
6. CombatHIV/AIDS,malaria,andotherdiseases
7. Ensureenvironmentalsustainability
8. Developaglobalpartnershipfordevelopment
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Seldomdoyouseeprioritizationofthingsonlyastatecando:likepolicingorjusticesystem
• Manysocialservicescanbeoutsourcedorleftuptocivilsociety– Education– Healthservices– Povertyrelief
• Certainpublicgoodscanonlybeprovidedbythecenter– Nationaldefense– Criminaljustice– Policing
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Asimplerexample:Cashforworkprogramsafterconflict
• Imagineagrantfor$5milliontoputyoungmentoworkbuildingroadsfor6monthsafterawar
• Bigenoughtoinvolvedonorandfinanceandplanningministrystaff
– Aspecialbureaucracymaybesetuptodealwiththis
• Intheendmaybe5000menget$600inwages
• Buthowmuchpoliticaltimeandbureaucraticattentiondidthistake
– Whatwastheopportunitycostintermsofotherreformsnottaken?
– Therearedozensorhundredsoftheseprogramsatanytime
– Whynot bypassthegovernment?
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III.Amoreoptimisticviewofaid:Tippingthebalancetowardsmoreopen
economiesandpolitics
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Lant Pritchett:Thinkoftheinternationalaidapparatusasreallybadballet,beingdoneallovertheworldbadly
everyday
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Butallthisbadballetisnecessarytoproducethevirtuosoperformance
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Avirtuosoperformance:Indiain1992
• Crisisin1992(acriticaljuncture)
• Governmentundertookaliberalizationoftheeconomyinfluencedbyinternationalaid/financepracticeandresearch
• Thegainsfromthesereformsarguablyexceedtheprevious20yearsofaid,plausiblybyanorderofmagnitude
• Lesson:aidcanworkevenifitmostlyfails
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Manyexamplesofaidimprovinggovernancefeaturepathdependenceandcriticaljunctures
Pre-existingconditions:
Relativepowerofkeyactors
“Criticaljuncture”Strategicchoiceoractiontaken
Persistentstructures:These
choicesoractionstakeformandpersist
Conflict:Responseand
counter-responsebyeliteand
subordinategroups
Resolution:Ofconflict
andcreationofnewregimes
RecallMahoney’sexplanationoftheseconcepts:
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Example:TheMarshallPlan1948-51“History’smostsuccessfulstructuraladjustmentprogram”?
• UStransferred$13billioninaidtoEurope
• FolkwisdomattributeEurope’srecoverytothisaid
• Butthisamountwastinycomparedtothecostofrecoveryandsizeofeconomies
• Rather,“conditionality”encouragedskepticalcountriestoorientthemselvestowardsthemarket
• Itwasanincentiveandcushiontomakereformpossible
DeLong,J.Bradford,andBarryEichengreen. TheMarshallPlan:History'smostsuccessfulstructuraladjustmentprogram.No.w3899.NBER,1991.
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Anotherexample:Uganda1986
• Astrongrebelgroupandleadercometopower
• ThenewPresidentMuseveniisdeeplyskepticalofamarketorientedeconomy
• Heispersuadedbothbyaidbutalsoeconomicexpertisetopursuearelativelyfreeandoneeconomy
• Ugandahassincesustainedalmost30yearsofcontinuouseconomicgrowth
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Wecouldalsoviewpeacekeepinginterventionsasseekingtotipthebalanceatcriticaljunctures
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Indeed,thisisthemostcharitablewaytoviewpostconflictstateanddemocraticinstitutionbuilding
• Thereisnowafairlystandardmenuofpost-conflictinterventions(inweakstates)– Demobilization,disarmament
andreintegration(DDR)– Reconciliation/transitional
justiceprocess– Restorethecentralstate
bureaucracy– Organizingelectionswith
multipartycompetitionanduniversalsuffrage
– Makecommitmentstocombatcorruption
Congoleseyouthwiththeirvotingcardsaheadofthefirstfree
electionsheldintheDRCinover40years,Kinshasa,June2006
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Onehypothesis:Supportforpost-conflictelectionstipthebalancetowardspoliticalfreedominthelongrun
• Alegitimateworryisthatfragilepost-conflictcountriesarepushedtoosoontodemocratize
• Or,cynically,thiscreatesonlya“ritualofdemocracy”– “Givingaiddonorsanelection
barelycleanenoughtoreceivealowpassinggrade,butdirtyenoughtomakeitdifficultfortheoppositiontowin.”—MarinaOttaway
• Butconceivablythesetipthebalancetowardsopenpolitics
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However,relativelyseldomdoesthisstatereconstructioneffortconsidertheformaldecentralizationofpower
• Sometimestherearepower-sharingagreementsthatleadtoopposinggroupscontrollingdifferentarmsofthegovernment
• Andthereistypicallysomesupportforafreepressandcivilsocietyorganizations
• Butmoreseldomisthereanefforttostrengthentheindependentpowerandresourcesoflocalgovernments,bureaucracies,legislativeandjudicialbranchesofgovernment
• Suchadecentralizationofpoweris,inpart,aninvitationtocorruption,whichdonorsdetest
• Decentralizeddecision-makingwillalsointerferewithrapidreformsandplannedreconstruction,ordonorabilitytoworkwithacentralactorsuchasaPresident
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Oneinterestingexperimentcurrentlyunderway:Kenya’sdevolution
• Electionviolencein2007/08helpedledtoanewpowersharingagreement
• AConstitutionalconventionledtoanewsetofformalrulesprovidingfor:– Morechecksandbalances
withinthegovernment– LargerroleofParliament– Independentjudiciary– AprogressiveBillofRights– Devolutionofsometaxand
spendingtoregions
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IV.Statebuildingonestepatatime
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Recallthatonlyrecentlyhaveaiddonorsstartedthinkingabout“governance”reforms
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Thelistofreformsbecameunhelpfullylongandbroad
Grindle,MerileeS."Goodenoughgovernance:povertyreductionandreformindevelopingcountries." Governance 17.4(2004):525-548.
Justanotherformofprematureloadbearing?
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Oneapproachtakenbydonors:Focusaidononstateswithhighqualitypublicinstitutionsandotherdemonstratedabilitytouseresourceswell
• e.g.TheMCC– NewUSaidagencystartedin2004
independentfromStateDept andUSAID– Countriesmustmeetasetofpolicy
indicators– Theninprinciplesettheirownplansand
leadimplementation
• Inprinciple,getsincentivesright
• Butbydefinitionthisisnotasolutionfortheworld’sfragileandslowestgrowingstates
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Exit Loyalty
S
C
E1
01+L
ExitVoice
Loyalty
1– CL– V
Respond
S
C
C:S:
E– C1
0– C1+L
Exit Loyalty
Ignore
C
E0
1L
Asecondapproachistothinkaboutwhatforceswouldstrengthenthebargainingpowerof
citizens
Extractfromcitizens
Donotextractfromcitizens
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Whatmeasuresmightstrengthenexitandvoiceamongthecitizenry?
Somepossibleexamples
• Supportfortertiaryeducation
• Encouraging(temporary?)migration– Newideas– Remittances
• Encouraginglocaltaxcollectionandpublicgoodsprovision– Thisisrare– Closestweseeare“communitydrivendevelopment”orCDDprograms
thathavelocalcommunitiesdeterminehowtospendaidgrants– Randomizedtrialssuggestthatthesehavelittlepersistenteffecton
localcapacity,butaone-timegrantdecisionisdifferentthanongoingtaxation/spendingauthority
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AfinalapproachistotrytodirectlyreformstatesBlum&Rogger 2016
• TheWorldBankhassupportedmanyhundredsoflargeprojectsaimedatpublicsectorreforminpoorandfragilestates,e.g.– Centralizedsystemsofpublicemploymentandpayrollcontrol– Promotingmerit-basedcivilservicesthroughpayandgradingreforms– Developingprocurementandpaymentsystems– Capacitybuildingthroughtraining
• It’sdifficulttosayhoweffectivetheseeffortsare,especiallyinpoorerandmorefragilestates
• Sohowtodothiswell?
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Someprinciplesforbuildingstatecapability,incrementally
1. Manyoftheinstitutionswethinkofasprecursorsfororderanddevelopmentemergedrelativelylate
2. Statecapacitytakesavery,verylongtimetodevelop
3. Statesshouldbestrategicinhowtheyspendtheirlimitedcapacity
4. Somestatefunctionsareamenabletobestpractices,butsolutionstothehardestproblemscannotbeimported
5. Don’tforgetthateliteshaveincentivestostymieorcapturereforms
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1.Manyoftheinstitutionswethinkofasprecursorsfororderanddevelopmentemergedrelativelylate
• CentralizedmunicipalpolicedepartmentsdonotemergeinUSandUKuntilthemidandlate19th century– Priortothispolicewere
largelycommunityvolunteers
– IntheUSSouth,policehadtheiroriginsinslavepatrols
• Thesebureaucraticstructuresappearedoncetheyweredemandedbycitizensandcitiescouldformandsupportthem
Manchesterpolice,1840s
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Intoday’srichcountries,manystatecapabilitiesaroseasaconsequenceofdevelopment
• “Goodgovernance”emergedslowlyandhaltinglyintoday’sdevelopedcountriesandwasoftentheworkofgenerations
• Someexamples:– Universalmalesuffragedidnotemergeuntilthe20thcentury– Bureaucracieswerecorruptandforsale– Judgesdidn’tnecessarilyknowthelaw– In1820,theUKwasslightlymoredevelopedthanIndiatodaybutitdid
nothavemanyofthethingsIndiahas:universalsuffrage,acentralbank,incometax,corporatelaw,etc
• Ingeneralwedon’tknowmuchabouttimingandsequencing
Grindle,M.S."Goodenoughgovernance:Povertyreductionandreformindevelopingcountries." Governance 17.4(2004).Chang,Ha-Joon. Kickingawaytheladder:developmentstrategyinhistoricalperspective.AnthemPress,2002.
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2.Historically,statecapacityhastakenavery,verylongtimetodevelop
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
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Donornationstendtounderestimatehowlongchangesinstateandinstitutionaldevelopmentcantake
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3.Neverforgetthesearelimitedaccessorders
• BlumandRogger (2016)reviewattemptstoreformthecivilserviceinpost-conflictcountries
• TheynotehowinAfghanistan,SouthSudan,andotherplaces,ministriesandtheabilitytoappointpublicservantsweregivenasspoilstoarmedfactionsaspartofapeacebargain
• Publicemploymentisapowerfulpatrimonialtoolcommonlyusedinevenfairlysophisticatedstates
• Asaresult,reformsthattrytoprofessionalizethebureaucracyorpromotemerit-basedappointmentsandpaywillencounterresistancefromelites
• Reformsthatignorethisbargainingandpatrimonialincentiveswillbelesslikelytosucceed
• Therealquestionofreformsshouldbe:howtoimproveprofessionalismandmeritocracyonthemargin?
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4.Statesneedtobestrategicinhowtheyspendtheirlimitedcapacity
• Whatwouldhappenisgovernmentsanddonorsbegantotreatstatecapabilityasthescarceresourceandthebindingconstraintondevelopment?
• Oneanswermightbetofocusonfunctiononlythestatecanperform,suchasorder,justice,taxationandsomepublicgoods
• Anotherwouldbetoprovokeadiscussionaboutoutsourcingnon-strategic,non-essentialfunctions– WhatcanbeprovidedbyNGOs?Theprivatesector?– Whatreformscanwaitadecadeandwhichareurgent
• Thisisawhollydifferentmotivationfor“privatization”– Basedoncapacityofaveryweakstate,notanyinherentinefficiency
• Currentlytheoppositeistrue:donorsworryaboutbuildingparallelsystemsforrunningsocialservicesthroughNGOs
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
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Ahighlycontroversialexample:BridgeInternationalAcademiesinKenya,Liberia
• Hyperlowcostprivateschoolingwhereteachersteachbyrote/tablet
• Intheory,intendedtogiveparentsanalternativechoice
• InLiberia,governmenthasdecidedtorunsomepublicschoolsviathismodel
• Tosometheideaisabhorrent,butthisassumestheLiberianstateiscapableofdeliveringpublicschooling
• InLiberia,thismightbeunderminedifBridgegetsadefactolocalmonopoly—abigproblem
• Butthiskindofexperimentationwithprivateandnon-profitchannelsseemslikeagoodideaforaweakstate
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5.Somestatefunctionsareamenabletobestpractices,butsolutionstothehardestproblemscannotbeimported
e.g.The“2017problem”Andres,Pritchett&Woolcock (2015)
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The“1804problem”
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Whatcharacteristicsofataskmakeitmorelikea2017versusan1804problem?
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
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Whatkindofstatecapabilitiesaredemandedbydifferenttypesoftasks?
Andrews,Matt,Lant Pritchett,andMichaelWoolcock."BuildingStateCapability:Evidence,Analysis,Action." OUPCatalogue (2017).
Complexityand
degreeofcapabilityre
quire
d
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Andrewsetal:Mostreformsandpolicieshaveamixof2017problemsand1804problems
• Thewellmapped,predictable,routine2017problemsaremoreeasilysolvedandmoreamenabletobestpractices
• Thelesscertain,idiosyncratic,anddifficult1804problemsarenotamenabletoimportingbestpractices– Indeed,importingbestpracticescouldmakethesituationworse
• Theserequirepersistentexperimentation(inthegeneralsense,notrandomizedcontroltrials!)