An Analysis of Two Different Options for Dairy Policy Change in

Canada in the Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Negotiations

Research by Isaac Jonas

Supervised by Dr Richard Barichello

ABSTRACT

Phasing out the Canadian Dairy

Supply Management system could

open up the sector to better

investment opportunities and increase

efficiency in the medium to long term.

However, the process needs to be

handled carefully, in a way that does

not send bad signals about

government policy consistency. The

dairy sector could generate

approximately a billion dollar dairy

‘cake’ in the first year of

consummation of the Trans-Pacific

Partnership Agreement.

1

Acknowledgements

First and foremost, my sincere gratitude goes to my supervisor, Professor Richard Barichello. His

generous, kind assistance and, encouragement has been unwavering throughout the duration of

this project. I would like to also thank Professor Michael Johnson, whose mathematical insights to

the research were very helpful.

I am also indebted to Nathan Canen, a Ph.D. student and friend at the University of British

Columbia (UBC) who provided valuable comments on my mathematical model.

I acknowledge, with most grateful thanks, the financial support from the University of British

Columbia MasterCard Foundation Scholarship who made it financially feasible for me to

undertake this research through their consistent and generous support throughout the duration of

my master’s program at UBC.

Lastly, many thanks goes to my mum who gave me unwavering support at least my entire life as

a child and as a student.

2

Table of Contents List of Acronyms..................................................................................................................................... 3

Research overview and Introduction ........................................................................................................ 4

Literature review ..................................................................................................................................... 7

Methodology ........................................................................................................................................... 8

Assumptions............................................................................................................................................ 9

Data Sources ........................................................................................................................................... 9

The Model…………………………………………………………………………………………………..9

Explanation of

Results……………………………………………………………………………………………………17

Experience from Australia and New Zealand……………………………………………………………19

Criticism of the Model……………………………………………………………………………………20

Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………….21

References………………………………………………………………………………………………22

3

List of Acronyms

Association of Southeast Asian Nations-ASEAN

Gross Domestic Product-GDP

Dairy Structural Adjustment Program-DSAP

International dairy Federation –IDF

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership-RCEP

Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement-TPPA

4

Research Overview

Introduction

The last half of the twenty first century has been marked by significant increase in regional trade

volumes between countries across the globe. The Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations is one

stride that is set to increase the volume of trade between North America, Asia and, Australasia1.

Globally, there are more than 150 million households that are involved in milk production2. On

the other hand, there are more than 6 billion consumers of milk across the world3. India is the

largest world producer for milk, followed by the United States of America, China, Pakistan and,

Brazil4. India accounts for at least 16% of the world’s milk production5. Canada produces milk

across all its ten provinces and much of the milk is consumed domestically. New Zealand, United

States of America, Germany, France, Australia and Ireland have the greatest milk surpluses6. On

the other hand, China, Italy, the Russian Federation, Mexico, Algeria and, Indonesia have the

greatest milk deficits7. These anomalies create the need for countries to trade with each other and

hence matching the milk deficits with the surplus.

Canadian dairy system’s supply is managed by the government through the provincial boards. This

has created a wedge between dairy farmers and the consumers for the dairy products. On the

extreme end, there are dairy farmers who want the status quo to prevail and on the other deep end

the dairy products’ consumers are paying a higher price than their counterparts in the United States

of America. This has drawn much attention both in local and international media as recently, the

government of Canada is taking part in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations.

Nonetheless, there has not been many studies to quantify the welfare implications should Canada

open up on its supply managed regime. Barichello (1981) calculates the efficiency effects and

income transfers effects for the industrial milk as $208 million and minus $989 million

respectively. There are different categories for milk that include fluid and industrial types. This

1 For the purpose of this research, Australasia means Australia and New Zealand 2 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-production/en/#.VaaiQ_lVhBc 3 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc 4 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc 5 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc 6 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc 7 http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc

5

paper focuses on milk products at farm level due to the availability of data and the research gap

under this category.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) is a comprehensive package of economic and

political objectives that opens up regional trade in a non-discriminatory basis (Capling and

Ravenhill, 2011). The TPPA consists of twelve countries which are Canada, Brunei, Mexico,

Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Peru and, The United

States8.

There has been speculation about the true extent of the benefits that could result from the

implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. To illustrate this, Petri (2012)

projects the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement to raise income by $295 billion per annum upon

its full implementation. The United States alone would benefit $789 billion per year through trade

and business opportunities with member countries. Not only that, the overall monetary benefits

are estimated to be about $2 trillion per year from the trading bloc (Petri, 2012). However,

Canada’s monetary gains or losses from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement are yet to be

established.

It is against this background that this research focuses on establishing approximate dairy sector

economic values from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement for Canada. It further articulates

the possible welfare implications that could result from Canada implementing the Trans-Pacific

Partnership Agreement in the currently supply managed dairy sector. Canada could equally benefit

from opening up its supply managed dairy sector. This could be in form of increased business

opportunities within Canada itself as local and international investors invest in the currently supply

managed dairy sector. There could also be intra-trade benefits between Canada and the other 11

members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. In the same way, the process could also

result in the transfer of benefits and or losses across different stakeholders ranging from dairy

farmers, consumers and, government.

The two hypotheses of this study therefore, are that Canada could implement the Trans-Pacific

Partnership Agreement and if not, then it would maintain the current supply management. Both

options could have different outcomes in terms of the welfare implications as explained in this

paper. Every outcome results in different stakeholders gaining and others losing. This works like

8 Capling, Ann, and John Ravenhill. “Multilateralising Regionalism: What Role for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement?”

The Pacific Review 24, no. 5 (December 1, 2011): 553–75. doi:10.1080/09512748.2011.634078 9 Petri, 2012

6

a ‘political market10 where gains and or losses are transferred across the divide with each move

taken.

It is important that we contextualize the research to understand the genesis of the dairy supply

management in Canada. The history of supply management in Canada dates back to the 1960s

when farmers were facing increasingly volatile markets trend and losing control over their

production process to processors (Canadian Parliamentary Report Review/Autumn, 2008). In

Canada, dairy industry supply management system was put in place in the early 1970s to address

these uncertainties in milk supplies and the revenue fluctuations to producers and processors

which were a common phenomenon in the 1950s and 1960s11.

Supply management, as it is conceptualized by Oscam and Speijers (1992)12, applies to Canada's

dairy sector. The Canadian Dairy Board issues milk quotas as producer’s right to sell an amount

of milk13. The Dairy Commission of Canada predetermines the milk production for a certain

period so that it balances with the predicted demand forecasts of the milk (Canadian Dairy

Commission report, 2010). The Dairy Commission, which is the bona fide milk regulator,

balances milk production from all farms across the Canadian provinces with the domestic

consumption of the dairy products by issuing marketing quotas within the framework provided by

the National Milk Marketing Plan. The National Milk Marketing Plan establishes the national

milk production target for industrial milk in Canada, or Market Sharing Quota (Canadian Dairy

Commission, 2010). When setting up this milk production target, the Canadian Dairy Commission

incorporates the milk imports and exports to cater for all demand and supply dimensions.

The probable question that is speculating is how the Canadian government is going to compensate

the dairy farmers who bought their quotas using loans from banks going to pay off their debts if

the government phases out the dairy supply management system? As of June 2015, there were

11962 farmers with milk shipments across Canada with about 959 dairy cows and 444 200 dairy

heifers14. Related to this, the whole milk per capita consumption has been on an upward trend for

10The different stakeholders like dairy farmers, processors, government and dairy products consumers all interact on the dairy

market. Each stakeholder bargains to have a better deal but the most important part is to convince the policymakers who may be

the politicians to make the best rational decisions. 11Canadian Parliamentary Report Review/Autumn, 2008 12Oscam and Speijers (1992) observe that supply management system is an agricultural policy that involves controlling the

production side of dairy products without necessarily decreasing the prices to very low prices. 13Moreso, the Canadian Dairy Commission Act r.s.c., 1985,c.C-15 demands that all milk produced in Canada be sold to the

Canadian Dairy Commission 14Statistics Canada

7

the period 1995 to 2014, with the average percentage change for the same milk category being

6.9%15.

It is also important to note that the mobility of quotas between farmers across the different

Canadian provinces is a critical factor that enables the dairy market to balance off the supply and

demand for quotas (Oscam and Speijers, 1992). The quotas like any other marketable good have a

price that incorporates the equilibrium price plus some risk premium of holding the quotas16. Risk

is an important consideration in asset purchase. In case of dairy supply management quotas in

Canada, portfolio risk and default risk are important (Barichello, 1996). However, there are other

risk sources: the risk could also be from any other market fundamentals or government policy

change.

Literature Review

In order to enhance a better understanding of the extent to which Canada could benefit from the

Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, this section focuses on critical literature on the Dairy Supply

Management system. Barichello (1981) estimates the economic effects of selected agricultural

policies in Canada at farm gate level for major milk categories. He further sums up the gains and

losses for the dairy supply management in four categories as Economic Gain /Efficiency loss ( -

$214 million), Producer Gain ($955 million), Consumer Gain (-$980 million) and taxpayers Gain

(-$303 million).

In 1983, Schmitz improved the findings in the dairy supply management body of knowledge by

bringing in the resource misallocation dimension of marketing boards as that of transferring

income from the general consuming public to a few specific consumers who can afford to buy milk

quotas.

In addition, Troughton (1989) highlights that marketing boards have emerged as a significant

institutional framework with Canadian agricultural system since the industrial period about 95

years ago. He alludes this trend as a step up in response to the economic depression, the need to

stimulate agribusinesses, the integral response to the pressures of the market, to technological

pressures of the market and, the structural changes in the industrialization of agriculture17.

15http://dairyinfo.gc.ca/pdf/camilkcream_e.pdf 16Oscam and Speijers, 1992 17Troughton, Michael J. “The Role of Marketing Boards in the Industrialization of the Canadian Agricultural System.” Journal

of Rural Studies, Special Issue Institutions and Rural Systems, 5, no. 4 (1989): 367–83. Doi: 10.1016/0743-0167(89)90063-6.

8

One of the most recent studies specific to Canada with regards to the Dairy supply management

system, has been the working paper by Ciuriak and Xiao published in September 2014. The two

authors assess the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement based on a ‘best guess’18 on

what could be the possible outcomes for the negotiations since the information from the

negotiations is usually not made public.

Although there has been studies in the dairy supply management in a broader sense, there has not

been specific research that quantifies the economic value that Canada would benefit if it

implements the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. This research closes down the research gap

Methodology

To quantify the gains and or losses from implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,

it is important to identify two variables which are the price and the quantity of raw milk. The price

and quantity data are then used to mathematically simulate the welfare gains and or loses as will

be shown on the diagrams below. In this case, the United States dairy system is used as a

benchmark for measuring the deadweight loss. Canada and the United States share close

similarities. The sources of differences in the two dairy systems emanate from differences in

technologies across the two countries. Once the milk trade flow is captured, then it would be a

clever conjecture to start quantifying the welfare gains and or loses from that vantage point. The

demand side of the dairy sector consists of the consumers and processors who buy the milk

products and, the supply side consists of the dairy farmers. The model is at equilibrium when the

demand and supply of milk are equal.

18 http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2550935.

9

Assumptions

● The price of milk in Canada does not affect the world price of milk.

● The United States milk price is a fair estimate for the world milk price.

● The demand for the raw milk is fixed over the short run as the supply changes with the

consummation of the TPPA.

● The demand and supply curves for raw milk are linear.

● The supply elasticity of milk 0.5.19

● Demand elasticity of whole milk is approximately -1.3120.

● There are no imports of milk and its associated products.

DATA SOURCES

There are two main data sources for the research. These are the International Monetary Fund and

Statistics Canada. The national data is a sum of the provincial boards and agencies milk figures.

These data are available on the International dairy Federation (IDF) Statistics Canada. The US and

Canadian milk price is found on the IDF database. Due to the limited time frame, the research will

be limited to desktop data gathering.

The Model

To give context to the model, the dairy sector in Canada supply managed throughout the ten

provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador,

Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec and, Saskatchewan. The specific distribution

of milk production across Canada is shown below.

19Bozic, Marin, Christopher A. Kanter, and Brian W. Gould. “Tracing the Evolution of the Aggregate U.S. Milk Supply

Elasticity Using a Herd Dynamics Model.” Agricultural Economics 43, no. 5 (September 1, 2012): 515–30. doi:10.1111/j.1574-

0862.2012.00600.x. 20http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/51791/2/IAAE%202009-Ref%20356-Davis.pdf. This result is confirmed to be same as

those obtained by Boehm and Babb(1975) and Schmidt et al.,(2002)

10

Source: Canadian Dairy Information Centre

Quebec province has the highest number of dairy cows at 354800 and Newfoundland and Labrador

have the lowest number of dairy cows at 600021.

In setting up the mathematical model, the underlying anecdote is that the price, which the Diary

Commission sets should be greater than the marginal cost. The marginal cost in economic sense,

gives a closer approximation of the supply curve of raw milk. Farmers would want to produce milk

as long as they at least cover the marginal costs otherwise it would be a loss for them to continue

to supply milk.

21 http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.php?s1=dff-fcil&s2=farm-ferme&s3=nb.

11

Graphically, to have a conjecture of the deadweight loss, the optimal price is assumed to be close

to that of the United States average raw milk price. The price is the Canadian price of raw milk

per liter and is the United States raw milk price average. The average prices are for the period

2008 to 2014. The conjecture for and are calculated from the average milk price for Canada

and the United States respectively. The two economies are assumed to be closely linked in terms

of trade due to their trade links and geographical proximity. This data are obtained from the

Statistics Canada, International Dairy Federation (IDF) database. The values for the prices

on fig 2 are the estimates from this author. The milk production data are obtained from the

provincial boards and agencies database.

The demand curve for the raw milk is downward sloping and the supply curve is fixed as the Dairy

Commision fixes the quotas that are distributed.

12

The value for milk at is known to result in the price, which the Canadian consumers face.

This is arrived at using the formula which the Dairy Board uses to impute all costs incurred dairy

farmers across Canada.

Mathematically, given the assumptions highlighted above,

The Q1 is the quantity that is set up by the Canadian dairy commission and all other variables are known. This makes the solutions for the

deadweight loss feasible to calculate as they are areas of the shapes. The overall deadweight loss is the sum of the areas under the curves as

shown on the diagram labeled fig 2 below

13

Given the aforementioned assumptions, the total value of what the dairy suppliers and consumers

could share is $944 401 24.38. This is calculated by summing up all the areas between the

demand curve and supply curves for the milk. The table below shows the respective welfare

implications.

14

Area A B C D E

Prices of raw milk 2.20 1.91 0.97 0.92 0.75

Quantities of Raw Milk(Qi) 76,711,985 78246224.41 79811148.9 81407371.87 83035519.31

Welfare loss/Gain 11123237.78 75944864.87 6520518.701 721092.6563 130410.374

Total Value of the milk

revenue cake 94440124.38

Triangle A shown by the blue triangle has a value of $11123237.78. This value shows that the

consumer surplus would increase as Canada opens up the dairy sector. Canadian dairy consumers

would pay less than what they are currently paying under the supply management system.

In year two (denoted by S2), the deadweight loss falls as shown by the triangles in black. Raw

milk supply increases presumably from more efficient farmers and also increased investment in

dairy farming as the dairy sector opens up. More raw milk is produced and production

hypothetically increases by ten percent in each year from the initial amount of 767 119 85. This is

a simplified assumption.

It is important to highlight that the Canadian government should cleverly find a phasing out

formula that does not send bad signals to farmers. Whatever the phasing out case the Canadian

government may take should it implement the TPPA, there has to be a cleverly timed out

mechanism to avoid panic and shortages for the dairy products.

To further illustrate the current scenarios, the diagram below shows that the Canadian milk

consumers pay more compared to the United States counterparts. This trend could be averted as

Canada opens up to international trade in its closed dairy sector through the TPPA. As shown on

fig 2 above, as the milk production falls, the milk prices consequently falls. This is good news in

the eyes of dairy products consumers and sad news for the dairy farmers who would be receiving

lesser return from their milk products. The graph below supports this fact.

Fig 3.

15

Source: author's calculations based on the Statistics Canada database

The dollar value difference at farm gate level between the United States and Canada are also

shown below.

16

Year Canadian Milk Production

2006 45,307,315

2007 78,197,966

2008 79,801,292

2009 77,771,092

2010 76,731,527

2011 76,627,816

2012 75,926,096

2013 75,891,672

2014 74,234,398

Source: Provincial Boards and Agencies

Link: http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.php?s1=dff-fcil&s2=farm-ferme&s3=prod&s4=can

17

The table above shows that the number of dairy quotas have been increasing over the period

from 2006 to 2014. This could be due to the increased demand for milk. If Canada implements

the TPPA, it would have to open up the market to free market forces of demand and supply.

Year US Price (Litre)

Canada Milk

Price (Litre)

1995 0.76 1.34

1996 0.82 1.33

1997 0.84 1.38

1998 0.86 1.41

1999 0.9 1.43

2000 0.92 1.45

2008 1.00 1.42

2009 0.82 1.62

2010 0.86 1.17

2011 0.94 2.22

2012 0.92 2.30

2013 0.91 2.32

2014 0.97 2.34

2015 0.95 2.34

Source: International Dairy Federation (IDF), Statistics Canada

Explanation of Results

To fully capture the gains from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, it is important to have a

quick overview of the TPP economic data. The table below shows some useful statistics.

18

Source: Ciuriak and Xiao (2014)

The Trans-Pacific Partnership parties have a combined population of approximately 800 million

people, a combined Gross Domestic Product of about US$28 trillion, imports of goods of

approximately US$5.2 trillion and imports from commercial services of close to US$1.0 trillion22.

It is against this background and the above stated assumptions that the ball pack welfare quantities

are given by the respective areas on the graphs above as Canada opens up to trade of milk products.

As of 2014, the consumer surplus in Canada was in the region of $5 938 751.81. In case of Canada

opening up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, this value would increase as the prices of

milk products would be expected to fall in the medium to long run and as more players come into

the dairy sector. However, notwithstanding that dairy sector is a capital intensive business in terms

of commercial needs ranging from the relatively higher dairy wage rate in the sector to the high

22 Ciuriak, Dan, and Jingliang Xiao. “The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Evaluating the ‘Landing Zone’ for Negotiations.” SSRN

Scholarly Paper. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, September 21, 2014.

http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2550935.

19

value equipment required in the milking process like the milking parlour, the assumption is that

there will be investors who invest in the sector at commercial rates.

In contrast, the producer surplus would be expected to fall as the inefficient farmers are driven out

of business through free market mechanism. Perhaps this is the reason why some dairy farmers are

against the opening up of the dairy sector. Over the years, the dairy farmers have been earning a

higher than average returns under the supply management23.

Geopolitically, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement would counter the rise of the Association

of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

(RCEP)24 by harmonizing this mega market (Ciuriak and Xiao, 2014).

Experience from Australia and New Zealand

Canada could take lessons from Australia and New Zealand when opening up the dairy sector to

competition. Australia implemented the dairy supply management system in the 1920s in the face

of both domestic and international market pressures and opened up the system to international

trade in 200125. The Canadian dairy supply management system is closely related to the Australian

system in many ways for example the marketing of table and cream milk were set at level above

the export equivalence (Martha et al, 2012). It was administered from provincial level which is the

same with the Canadian. While there are some notable differences between the two systems, The

Australian government agreed to pay $1.6 billion to dairy farmers under the Dairy Structural

Adjustment Program (DSAP)26.

23 http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2089041. 24 RCEP comprises of Australia, New Zealand, China, India, Japan, and Korea 25 http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2089041 26 http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2089041

20

The New Zealand dairy system27 was different from the current Canadian system in that

fundamentally, it was export focused, farmer-owned and, cooperative driven from the initial stages

and the benefits came from the power of pooled resources (Martha et al, 2012).

The two cases offer examples of benefits of opening up to international trade as New Zealand and

Australia have managed to produce milk more efficiently and also benefited from increased export

earnings from dairy products. While there may be differences in terms of the specifics of how the

Canadian dairy supply management system could be phased out, the benefits that could be gained

from opening up to trade could be huge. The Trans- Pacific Partnership Agreement offers such a

window for politicians, dairy farmers and consumers to be realistic to what Canada could be losing

out through protecting some inefficient dairy farmers and also international investment

opportunities from other countries in the TPPA.

Criticism of the Model

While the model tries to quantify the welfare implications that could emanate from Canada

opening up the regulated dairy sector as rationally as possible with the given information, the finer

details about the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement are closely kept secret between the

negotiating governments until such time it is finalized. The demand curve is assumed to be constant

in the model and the focus in mainly on the supply function. However, in reality, demand

preferences may change in tandem with changing supply dynamics.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Partners tend to have trade in more similar products for example,

trade would be more complimentary and better if there were more pronounced differences in the

milk types. Milk is also not easily transportable across borders as it is perishable. To buttress this

fact, Ciuriak and Xiao (2014) highlight that the correlation of Trade Specialization Indexes for

Canada and the other eleven TPP members is quite similar. This is shown below.

27New Zealand never had a supply management system like the one Australia had and the one Canada has, it provided

agricultural subsidies hence there was no accumulated quota value(Martha et al, 2012)

21

Source: Ciuriak and Xiao, 2014

Conclusion

The welfare implications for opening up the dairy sector is close to a billion at farm gate level.

The revenue that could be generated from an open dairy system is closely contested amongst

different stakeholders ranging from dairy consumers, dairy processors, and government and dairy

farmers. Taken from the eyes of dairy consumers, the Canadian dairy consumers would pay less

than what they are currently paying when the country opens up to international trade by

implementing the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. In contrast, the dairy farmers would

receive less than their current above average returns per hectare in the medium to long run. In

calculating the welfare implications, the overall projections largely depend on the assumptions

stated holding true over time. The most important question there would be to have a feasible

compensation mechanism to phase out the current dairy quota system over time. A minimum of a

ten year phase out process would seem feasible for the Canadian government. This would enable

the market to adjust to the more open conditions gradually with time.

22

References

Arcus, Peter L. “THE VALUES OF MILK QUOTAS IN BRITISH COLUMBIA: An Economic

Analysis.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne D’agroeconomie 26,

no. 2 (July 1, 1978): 62–71. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1978.tb02908.x.

Barichello, Richard R. The economics of Canadian dairy industry regulation. Vol. 2. Economic

Council of Canada, 1981.

Barichello, Richard, John Cranfield, and Karl Meilke. “Options for the Reform of Supply

Management in Canada with Trade Liberalization.” Canadian Public Policy 35, no. 2 (June 1,

2009): 203–17. doi:10.3138/cpp.35.2.203.

Bozic, Marin, Christopher A. Kanter, and Brian W. Gould. “Tracing the Evolution of the

Aggregate U.S. Milk Supply Elasticity Using a Herd Dynamics Model.” Agricultural Economics

43, no. 5 (September 1, 2012): 515–30. doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00600.x.

Canada, Branding Management; International Markets Bureau; Market and Industry Services

Branch; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Government of. “Comparative Consumer Profile -

Canada and the United States,” December 14, 2010.

Canadian Dairy Commission, Communication Dept. “Canadian Dairy Commission,” (2010-08-

05) http://www.revparl.caCapling, Ann, and John Ravenhill. “Multilateralising Regionalism:

What Role for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement?” The Pacific Review 24, no. 5

(December 1, 2011): 553–75. doi:10.1080/09512748.2011.634078.

/31/3/31n3_08e_McIsaac.pdf. Accessed May 15, 2015

Centre, Government of Canada; Canadian Dairy Information. “Number of Farms, Dairy Cows and

Heifers - Canadian Dairy Information Centre (CDIC),” June 30,

2015. http://www.dairyinfo.gc.ca/index_e.php?s1=dff-fcil&s2=farm-ferme&s3=nb.

Ciuriak, Dan, and Jingliang Xiao. “The Trans-Pacific Partnership: Evaluating the ‘Landing Zone’

for Negotiations.” SSRN Scholarly Paper. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network,

September 21, 2014. http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2550935.

23

“English Title / Titer En Anglais.” Accessed June 19, 2015. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/sum-

som/fl/saveas-eng.cgi.

Findlay, Hall, and Martha. “Supply Management: Problems, Politics and Possibilities.” SSRN

Scholarly Paper. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network, June 21, 2012.

http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2089041.

Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs Trade and Development Canada . “Canada-European

Union: Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA).” Accessed May 15, 2015.

http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/ceta-

aecg/benefits-avantages/agriculture-agricoles.aspx?lang=eng.

Oskam, A. J., and D. P. Speijers. “Quota Mobility and Quota Values: Influence on the Structural

Development of Dairy Farming.” Food Policy 17, no. 1 (February 1992): 41–52. Doi:

10.1016/0306-9192(92)90016-Q.

Schmitz, Andrew, and Troy G. Schmitz. “Supply Management: The Past and Future.” Canadian

Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne D’agroeconomie 42, no. 2 (July 1, 1994):

125–48. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1994.tb00013.x.

Schmitz, Andrew. “Supply Management in Canadian Agriculture: An Assessment of the

Economic Effects.” Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue Canadienne

D’agroeconomie 31, no. 2 (July 1, 1983): 135–52. doi:10.1111/j.1744-7976.1983.tb01193.x.

Sumner, Daniel A., and Norbert L. W. Wilson. “Capitalization of Farm Policy Benefits and the

Rate of Return to Policy-Created Assets: Evidence from California Dairy Quota.” Applied

Economic Perspectives and Policy 27, no. 2 (June 20, 2005): 245–58. doi:10.1111/j.1467-

9353.2005.00224.x.

Lindall, Scott A., Douglas C. Olson, and Gregory S. Alward. “Deriving Multi-Regional Models

Using the IMPLAN National Trade Flows Model.” Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy 36,

no. 1 (2006). http://econpapers.repec.org/article/agsjrapmc/132316.htm.

Petri, Peter A., Michael G. Plummer, and Fan Zhai. The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-

Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment. Peterson Institute, 2012.

24

Troughton, Michael J. “The Role of Marketing Boards in the Industrialization of the Canadian

Agricultural System.” Journal of Rural Studies, Special Issue Institutions and Rural Systems, 5,

no. 4 (1989): 367–83. Doi: 10.1016/0743-0167(89)90063-6.

“Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Free Trade Negotiations.” Accessed May 15, 2015.

http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/tpp-ptp/benefits-

avantages.aspx?lang=eng.

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/197161/2/Session%204%20-

%20Barichello%20Liew%20Grant.pdf. Accessed May 15, 2015

http://www.dairyfarmers.ca/what-we-do/international-trade/international-trade-

negotiations/comprehensive-economic-and-trade-agreement-with-the-european-union. Accessed

May 15, 2015

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/assets/po/canada-us-trade-

tensions/gifford.pdf .Accessed online. March 26, 2015

http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/industry-markets-and-trade/statistics-and-market-information/by-

region/canada/comparative-consumer-profile-canada-and-the-united-

states/?id=1410083148458#d.

http://www.wcds.ca/proc/2013/Manuscripts/p%20113%20-%20128%20Muirhead.pdf. Accessed

online 14 May, 2015

http://www.iedm.org/files/janv06_en.pdf. Accessed May 19, 2015

http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/51791/2/IAAE%202009-Ref%20356-Davis.pdf.

Accessed online, 22 July 2015.

http://www.wcds.ca/proc/2013/Manuscripts/p%20113%20-%20128%20Muirhead.pdf. Accessed

online, 14 May, 2015

http://www.imf.org/external/research/index.aspx. Accessed Online, June 23, 2015

http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i1522e/i1522e02.pdf. Accessed Online, 15 July, 2015

http://www.fao.org/agriculture/dairy-gateway/milk-and-milk-products/en/#.VaaiSvlVhBc.

Accessed Online, 15 July, 2015

25

http://web.stanford.edu/group/FRI/indonesia/documents/pambook/pambook.pdf. Accessed

Online, 15 July, 2015

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/canada-needs-data-on-economic-benefits-

of-tpp-trade-deal/article24836742/. Accessed Online, 15 July, 2015