Optimizing Performance and Investment Decisions through ... Presentations/Tuesday/… · Scenario...
Transcript of Optimizing Performance and Investment Decisions through ... Presentations/Tuesday/… · Scenario...
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Copyright High Street Consulting Group 2007
Optimizing Performance and Investment Decisions through
Scenario Planning
OTEC 2016
70 Years of Innovation & Beyond
Session 30
Columbus, Ohio
October 25, 2016
Erin Dean, PE, AICP, Senior Consultant, High Street Consulting Group
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We live in an era of rapid change
Years until Technology was used by one-quarter of Americans
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Scenario Planning Uses
• Considers and analyzes alternative possibilities or futures
• Considers a range of options to identify a path forward
• Example areas:
– Statewide and MPO LRTPs
– Corridor plans
– Freight plans
– Public transit plans
– Land use plans
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Why Apply Scenario Planning?
• Improve decision-making to account for futures that may be different than past trends
• Assesses interactions between multiple factors
• Improve ability to address changing community values and preferences
• Improve ability to understand changing role of technology in transportation
• Improve ability to address infrastructure resiliency in response to climate change
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Why Apply Scenario Planning?
• Improves stakeholder engagement due to collaboration and consensus building
• Considers tradeoffs and the ability to understand and address competing values and visions
• Helps demonstrate how development influences travel behavior and travel demand
• Supports performance-based planning
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How do we prepare for uncertainty?
Develop framework
Develop menu of strategic scenarios
Test different scenarios
Portray alternatives and explain outcomes
Understand consequences and trade-offs
Link to the programming
process
Scenario Planning Process
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Arkansas State Highway and Transportation Department
Case Studies
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Four Distinct Scenarios
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• Focus
– Maintain and preserve the existing highway and bridge system
– Higher priority on highway and bridges on the National Highway System (NHS)
Keep it Smooth – Preserve the InvestmentKeep it Smooth – Preserve the Investment
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• Focus
– Enhance infrastructure investments that support industry retention and attraction
– Allocate funds to increase capacity and improve system conditions on key corridors to improve freight efficiency and connectivity
Think Locally – Trade Globally
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• Focus
– Increase capacity to improve economic competitiveness.
– Allocate funds to complete the Four-Lane Grid System.
Connecting Communities – Forging Opportunities
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• Focus
– Allocate funds to alleviate urban congestion
– Emphasis on:
• Congested corridors
• Increasing transit operations
• Preserving the existing urban system
• Addressing gaps in the bicycle and pedestrian network
Bigger Cities – More Mobility
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Resource Allocation
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400
Keep it Smooth – Preserve the Investment
Think Locally – Trade Globally
Connecting Communities – Forging Opportunities
Bigger Cities – More Mobility
Bike/Ped Public Transportation Safety Maintenance ITS Bridge Capacity Pavement
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Understand consequences and trade-offs
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Scenario Planning Outcomes
• Links resource allocation to system performance
• Informs leadership on critical decision points
• Helps establish realistic priorities under current funding
• Provides guidance on setting reasonable targets
• Illustrates that AHTD needs more funding to
– Maintain infrastructure conditions
– Improve economic competiveness
– Connect communities
– Invest in non-highway improvements
• Clarifies AHTD’s difficulty in meeting statewide expectations of stakeholders and general public
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Arizona Department of Transportation
Case Studies
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All the Moving Parts
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Investment Area Weighting
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Current vs. Baseline Proposed Allocations
Modernization8%
Preservation26%
Expansion53%
M&O13%
Estimated Current
Modernization21%
Preservation20%
Expansion39%
M&O20%
Baseline Proposed
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Alternative Investment Choices
$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600
Safety
Bridge
Pavement
Expansion
Technology
Accessibility
M&O
Alternative Investment Choices
Expansion AIC
Preservation AIC
Stakeholder AIC
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Benefits
• Helps stakeholders understand potential future impacts to transportation system
• Links resource allocation to system performance
• Informs leadership on trade-offs, consequences, and risks
• Helps establish realistic performance targets under funding constraints
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Challenges
• Access to tools and calculating performance
– Travel demand model – travel characteristics
– HERS-ST – highway conditions
– NBIAS – bridge conditions
• Access to tools and measuring performance
– Professional staff
– Software