Optimize Your FTTH Investments De-risk Your Strategyadtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/Fierce...
Transcript of Optimize Your FTTH Investments De-risk Your Strategyadtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/Fierce...
® Adtran, Inc. 2009 All rights reserved
Ryan McCowan & Ronan Kelly ADTRAN Product Management
Optimize Your FTTH Investments
De-risk Your Strategy
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Demand Drivers
Speed – Marketing creating demand for higher bandwidth
– DOCSIS 3.0 Competing on speed
100Mbps is the showcase offering
– New Entrants creating market disruption
Google Fiber - Focused Gbps service offering
LTE Wireless Operators
– Government Broadband Initiatives
100 Squared – EU 2020
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Evolution towards Cloud Culture
Physical Content
Local Storage
No - Download
Kbps Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Gbps
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Evolution towards Cloud Culture
Physical Content Online Content
Local Storage
No - Download One Time Download
Local Storage
Kbps Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Gbps
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Evolution towards Cloud Culture
Physical Content Online Content Cloud Services
Local Storage
No - Download One Time Download
Local Storage
Cloud Storage
Regular Repeated
Downloads
Kbps Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Gbps
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Evolution towards Cloud Culture
Physical Content Online Content Cloud Services
Local Storage
No - Download One Time Download
Local Storage
Cloud Storage
Regular Repeated
Downloads
Kbps Mbps 10Mbps 100Mbps Gbps
Bandwidth & Service Consistency Increasingly Important
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Access Evolution to 1Gbps and Beyond
Street
Cabinet
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Cross Box
Subscriber Drop
What are the risks?
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Cross Box
Subscriber Drop
Phase 1 ADSL2+
Emerging Market
Phase 3 FTTX
Mature Market
Phase 2 VDSL2
Developed Market
Typical Operator Network
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Cross Box
Subscriber Drop
Typical Operator Network
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Cross Box
Subscriber Drop
Typical Operator Network
Greenfield – FTTP for sure
Brownfield – FTTP is tricky and risky
There are great FTTx alternatives: – Vectored VDSL2
– G.fast
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FTTH: What is the Consumer market?
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FTTH: What is the Consumer market?
Prepared to pay a
premium because it is
a Fibre Service
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FTTH: What is the Consumer market?
Prepared to pay a
premium because it is
a Fibre Service Likely retain or take up
Service offering
Because of the Bandwidth Speed
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FTTH: What is the Consumer market?
Prepared to pay a
premium because it is
a Fibre Service Likely retain or take up
Service offering
Because of the Bandwidth Speed
Service Selection
Primarily driven by
cost
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Emerging Threats to FTTH Investment Model?
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Emerging Threats to FTTH Investment Model?
40 Million
20 Million
24 Million
12 Million
Where will the next ARPU Erosion come from?
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Emerging Threats to FTTH Investment Model?
40 Million
20 Million
24 Million
12 Million
1 Billion
500 Million
200 Million
600 Million
Where will the next ARPU Erosion come from?
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Google At A Glance
Google At A Glance Founded 1998 (2004 IPO) $ 38 B50 B REV (20112012) $ 4.5 B annual capex $ 28 B for Google Fiber (Estimated) 54 k employees Targeting 50k to 500k homes
(FTTH)
• Google Fiber in Kansas City Metro • Announced KC project March 2011,
• Announced construction April 2012 (both
aerial and buried fiber)
• Launched service July 2012
• 1 Gbps speeds offered in 180 Fiberhoods • $300 fee for Free Internet 5/1 Mbps
• $75/mo for Gigabit Internet 1000/1000 Mbps
• $120/mo for Gigabit Internet + TV
• Building own gear and leveraging higher
service take rates to improve profits. • Building own STB, direct sourcing ONTs
• Using Social Networking to ensure higher
take rates (5 – 25%) of neighborhoods.
• Additional cities announced in April 2013 • Austin, TX and Provo, UT
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FTTC – Increasing 100 Mbps reach
Street
Cabinet
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New Investment in FTTCab/FTTN
Project Velocity IP
November 2012 $14B to boost broadband
Extend U-Verse FTTN coverage by 8.5M homes by 2015
Compete, Transform, & Innovate
December 2012 €6B for FTTC w/ vectoring in Germany
Increase VDSL coverage from 36% to 65% by 2016
FTTCab Expansion
September 2012
€1B+ cooperative deployment
FTTCab to 6.1M homes in 100 cities by the end of 2014
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100 Mbps @ 550m with
vectoring
Vectoring
Gain
Vectoring eliminates Far End CrossTalk (FEXT) and allows service providers to deploy
100 Mbps out to >1 km over two pairs of copper
VDSL2 with Vectoring Mass-Market 100 Mbps Service Delivery
VDSL2 w/ Vectoring: – Latest generation copper
access technology for FTTN architectures
– Mass deployable technology in 2013
– Delivers 100Mbps out to >1km/3kft with 2pr bonding
– Enables cost-effective and widespread delivery of 100M services
– Small form-factor DSLAMs optimized around vectoring coming to market
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Inherent Synergy of FTTx and FTTP
Deep fibre is making loops shorter….
And shorter…
CO/Exchange
Remote Terminal or
Street Cabinet
Small Form-factor
sealed DSLAMs
Distribution Point
under sidewalk
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Ultra Low Cost for Video Delivery
Install
anywhere
This pit fills with water
when it rains!!!
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Copper Pairs, Binders, and Cables
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VDSL2 service can achieve 100Mbps
No Noise
FTTC
Providing there is no noise or cross-talk between services
FTTC (Street Cabinet) VDSL2 solutions can provide 100Mbps
over 1 km from a Fiber to the Cabinet
Symbol Key
VDSL2 Port
Unused
Copper-pair
Activated
Copper-pair
Customer
Premises
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Cross-talk impacts performance
No Noise
FTTC
Far-End Cross-Talk (FEXT) can reduce VDSL2 performance by 50% or more
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Noise, cross-talk degrades performance
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Vectoring reduces cross-talk
No Noise
FTTC
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Vectoring reduces cross-talk
No Noise
FTTC
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Vectoring reduces cross-talk
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
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Vectoring reduces cross-talk
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
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Vectoring reduces cross-talk
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Vectoring was designed to eliminate self-FEXT and allow service providers to
deploy advanced services of 100 Mbps and beyond
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Vectoring improves VDSL2 performance
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‘Alien’ services impact vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
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‘Alien’ services impact vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
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‘Alien’ services impact vectoring benefit
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
?
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‘Alien’ services impact vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Alien Service
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‘Alien’ services impact vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Alien Service
All pairs within a binder need to be in the Vectoring Group
otherwise vectoring doesn’t provide any benefit.
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‘System-level’ vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Alien Service
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‘System-level’ vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Alien Service
AS PART OF A ‘SYSTEM’
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‘System-level’ vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
AS PART OF A ‘SYSTEM’
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‘System-level’ vectoring benefit
No Noise
FTTC
Receivers send transmitters key measurements
Transmitters adapt signals to cancel crosstalk
Alien Service
AS PART OF A ‘SYSTEM’
The solution to the problem of alien pairs is
to take a “system-level” approach to vectoring.
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Vectoring Summary
Increases VDSL2 bandwidth – 50% or more; Attain 100Mbps per
pair
Works best on short loops – Less than 1.5km/5kft
A system-level approach is key – Any ‘alien’ service reduces
performance
For more information, watch the
recording of the Fierce/ADTRAN webinar
“Vectoring Demystified” http://www.fiercewireless.com/offer/adtran_dec2012
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Summary
Near-term requirement: 100Mbps
Make smart investments in the face of a rapidly changing landscape
Stay focused on customer experience, not technology for its own sake
Beware disruptive technologies and market entrants – Revenue erosion
– Undermine business case assumptions
Incremental investment with quick ROI mitigates risk
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A Comprehensive Toolkit
Be technology-agile – Greenfield: FTTP is the obvious choice
– Brownfield: FTTP economics are challenging, FTTN is an effective alternative
Carriers must continue to leverage existing network to fund long-term fiber buildout
Successful carriers will combine both architectures to build a profitable network
The all-fiber future belongs to those who survive long enough to reach it
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Thank You!