Opportunity Day - Stock Exchange of Thailand · Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results . The information...

33
“One family… Fueling the future of Thailand” Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results

Transcript of Opportunity Day - Stock Exchange of Thailand · Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results . The information...

Page 1: Opportunity Day - Stock Exchange of Thailand · Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results . The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation

“One family… Fueling the future of Thailand”

Opportunity Day2Q/2019 results

Page 2: Opportunity Day - Stock Exchange of Thailand · Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results . The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation

The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference.

This presentation contains “forward-looking” statements that relate to future events, which are, by their nature, subject to significant risks and uncertainties. All

statements, other than statements of historical fact contained in this presentation including, without limitation, those regarding SPRC’s future financial position and

results of operations, strategy, plans, objectives, goals and targets, future developments in the markets where SPRC participates or is seeking to participate and any

statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “believe”, “expect”, “aim”, “intend”, “will”, “may”, “project”, “estimate”, “anticipate”, “predict”, “seek”,

“should” or similar words or expressions, are forward-looking statements.

The future events referred to in these forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of which are beyond our

control, which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements, or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or

achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.

These forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding our present and future business strategies and the environment in which SPRC will

operate in the future and are not a guarantee of future performance. Such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. SPRC does

not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. The information set out herein is

subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, has not been independently verified and it may not contain all material information concerning the

Company.

SPRC makes no representation, warranty or prediction that the results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will be achieved, and such forward-looking

statements represent, in each case, only one if many possible scenarios and should not be viewed as the most likely or standard scenario. No assurance given that

future events will occur or our assumptions are correct. Actual results may materially differ from those provided in the forward-looking statements and indications of

past performance are not indications of future performance. In no event shall SPRC be responsible or liable for the correctness of any such material or for any

damage or lost opportunities resulting from use of this material. SPRC makes no representation whatsoever about the opinion or statements of any analyst or other

third party. SPRC does not monitor or control the content of third party opinions or statements and does not endorse or accept any responsibility for the content or

use of any such opinion or statement.

SPRC’s securities have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the securities laws of any state of the United

States, and may not be offered or sold within the United States, except pursuant to an exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements

of such act or such laws.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell SPRC’s securities in any jurisdiction.

DISCLAIMER

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Vision, Mission& Core Values

“One Family…

Fueling the Future of Thailand”

“We are a highly engaged Family, dedicated to

providing sustained superior returns to our shareholders

through industry leading safe and reliable operations,

producing quality products that exceed customer expectations,

in harmony with our communities and the environment.”

Our Vision: Our Mission:

Core Values:

Stars Leader / Outstanding / Role model

Professional Integrity / Professionalism / Performance driven

Reliable Accountable / Ready / Trustworthy

Caring Responsible citizen / Compassion / Sincere

3Investor

Update

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4

CONTENTS

01 Highlights

02 Market overview

03 Operational review

04 Financial performance

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5

01 Highlights

02 Market overview

03 Operational review

04 Financial performance

CONTENTS

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Highlights

SPRC’s Winning formula

“At SPRC we believe that

nothing is more important than

being safe and reliable.

We work together as one family

to protect our employees,

the environment, the community,

and to be our customers partner

of choice.

All of which creates maximum

value for SPRC’s shareholders.”

Tim Potter, CEO

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2Q/2019 Highlights

97.1%

7

Highlights

0

TOTAL DAYS AWAY

FROM WORK RATE (‘DAFWR’)

99.8% 85.1%91.0%*

UTILIZATION OF EQUIVALENT

DISTILLATION CAPACITY (UEDC)**

AVAILABILITY

EX. TURNAROUND

$2.39/bbl $2.57/bbl

MARKET GRM

* Normalized UEDC excluding economically concern for the best profitability.

** Lower UEDC to optimize economic returns and due to end of run plant conditions.

BOTTOM LINE

IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

OPEX PER BARREL

Excluding T&I and Project OPEX

$1.81/bbl THB 0.1202

/share

INTERIM DIVIDEND

Dividend payout of 50%

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Highlights

SPRC’s Formula for success

8

SAFETY

(Injuries per 200,000 man-hours)

▪ Achieved over 6 years without

Days Away From Work injury.

The last DAFW was 24 Jun 2013.

▪ Achieved 20.2 million man-hours

without Days Away From Work

injury.

PERFORMANCE UPLIFT

FROM “BLIP”

US$/bbl

BLIP: Bottom Line Improvement Program

RELIABILITY OPTIMIZATION MARKET GRM

▪ Sustained high availability but

lower EDC to optimize economic

return during narrowed crack

spread in 2Q19 and end of run

plant conditions.

▪ Target top quartile performance in

availability and utilization among

over 90 refineries in the Asia

Pacific and India Ocean region.

▪ Captured BLIP benefit from good

process and crude optimization.

▪ Maximized domestic placement for

Gasoline and Diesel.

▪ Lower margins due to weaker crack

spreads especially gasoline and

higher crude costs relative to

benchmarks.

OPERATIONAL AVAILABILITY

EX. TURNAROUND

A strong foundation of personal safety … …exceptional reliability… …and maximizing GRM…driving optimization & cost efficiencies…

US$/bbl

TOTAL DAYS AWAY

FROM WORK RATE

0 0 0 0 0

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19

97.3%88.8%

94.2% 90.9%85.1%

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19

EDC UTILIZATION RATE

99.7%96.4%

99.1% 99.9% 99.8%

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q192.69 2.59

2.93

2.34 2.39

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19

6.68

7.34

5.67

3.07

2.57

4.10

5.36

4.67

2.51 2.24

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19

SG GRM

No one gets hurt

*

*Adjusted 1Q19 BLIP number to reflect end of run plant conditions.

.

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2019 Event Project

($256M)

Turnaround & Inspection (T&I) Increase Capacity to 175 KBD Reliability Projects

9

• Schedule has been optimized through a multi-party approach with consultants and primary maintenance and construction contractor.

• Shut down is scheduled for a period of 45 days (+/- 5 days), starting from 1 November 2019.

• Operational planning in progress to capture benefits from reliability and capacity upgrades.

• Lower future structure OPEX per barrel.

• Looking for margin improvement opportunities post Event project.

Current Status of Event 2019

Highlights

2019 Event Project

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01 Highlights

02 Market overview

03 Operational review

04 Financial performance

CONTENTS

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Overview of oil demand growth and GRM

Source: Wood Mackenzie and IHS

11

Market overview

Source: IEA, IHS

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

Million barrels/dayMillion barrels/day

ASIA (include Middle East)

NORTH AMERICA

EUROPE

LATIN AMERICA

AFRICA

INCREMENTAL OIL DEMAND

FSU

2018 2019e 2020e

0.480.18 0.36

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

-0.03

0.07 0.01

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0.18 0.13 0.07

-0.06 -0.04

0.04

-0.01

0.08 0.06

0.01 0.140.70

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

▪ Typical SPRC GRM is in range of US$5-7/bbl.

High product

inventory globally

SINGAPORE GRM

US$/bblStrong gasoline

demand & low

crude oil premium

SPRC

GRM

Singapore

GRM

2018 2019 2020

▪ Global oil demand growth in 2019/2020 is 1.2/1.4 mb/d. Demand in the

Middle East and parts of Asia was revised slightly upwards.

▪ Global refining capacity increase in 2019/2020 are 1.8/0.7 mb/d and Asia

refinery capacity increase are 1.2/0.4 mb/d.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010201220142016 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3

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Market overview

Overview of product cracks

DUBAI PRICE

72

63

67

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

US$/bbl

12

4

8

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

US$/bbl

GASOLINE CRACK

1513 12

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

US$/bbl

JET FUEL CRACKDIESEL CRACK

1513 12

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

US$/bbl

-4

1

-22Q18 1Q19 2Q19

US$/bbl

FUEL OIL CRACK

DUBAI

+ U.S. attempts to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero come against the backdrop of a global market that is sufficiently well supplied to avoid price disruptions.

+ Crude oil prices firmed as supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela's fuel exports outweighed concerns about an economic slowdown.

- U.S./China trade war brought a concern economic slowdown and as a result push down on demand growth.

GASOLINE

+ Gasoline prices have been supported by persistent reductions of FCC utilization rates, both within and outside the region.

+ Seasonal maintenance and refinery outage cause lower production in U.S., Middle East and Asia brought down gasoline stock in major part of the world.

- Gasoline cracks fell after a three-month rally on increased Chinese exports and reduced imports by Vietnam yearly added to the regional gasoline overhang.

JET

+ The Asian jet fuel market would likely get some support from the upcoming refinery turnarounds in China, which should cut some of the excess supply in the market.

- Jet cracks dipped as winter demand begins to bottom out, while arbitrage opportunities to the West have begun to narrow.

DIESEL

+ Lower export from China and a late start to India’s monsoon season has lent support to gasoil cracks and help soak up some of the excess diesel in the market.

- Cracks remain under pressure due to ample regional supplies as refineries restart after the end of the maintenance season amidst limited arbitrage opportunities to the west.

FUEL OIL

- The fuel oil market continued to languish, as bunker demand saw no sign of recovery due the escalating trade war between U.S. and China.

+ Higher consumption from Middle East for power generation.

+ Price jumped up in June from low western arbitrage flow coming to Singapore, but high M1/M2 spread kicked in at the same time.

KEY HIGHLIGHT

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Market overview

100 88

DEMAND GROWTH

2018 (5 mths) – 2019 (5 mths) EXPECTED GROWTH 2020 COMMENTS

▪ Auto LPG demand continue to

decline due to price differential.

FUEL OIL

AUTO LPG

DIESEL

JET

GASOLINE

425 437

128 128

194 201

+3.9%

38 36

+2.9%

-4.0%

20192018

-12.0%

▪ Healthy demand growth keeps

track with GDP growth.

▪ Seasonal import Diesel.

▪ Domestic Fuel oil consumption

remains relatively constant.

KBD

Source: EPPO

KBD

KBD

KBD

K. ton/month

+0.4%

▪ Continued strong demand for

gasoline.

▪ Import GB95 continue to

increase YoY.

▪ Continued growth due to tourism

growth and higher demand from

airlines.

Strong petroleum demand in Thailand

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01 Highlights

02 Market overview

03 Operational review

04 Financial performance

CONTENTS

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CRUDE INTAKE

Crude

15

Operational review

• 19 and 22 types of crude processed in 2Q19 and 6M19.

• Market drives to process more Far East crude.

*Industry Average of 5M19 during January-May 2019

Source: Company data, EPPO

2% 1%

21%14% 19% 21% 20%

11%10%

11% 12% 11%

13%

75%69% 67% 68%

55%

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 6M19 Industry average5M19*

Middle East

Far East

Domestic

Others

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Operational review

Products

SPRC Competitive Export Industry Average*

▪ Sustained industry average of domestic placement in almost all products.

▪ Export sales including Indochina sales at 5% in 2Q19.

PRODUCT YIELD DOMESTIC SALES

▪ Continued from Q1 optimization to reduce gasoline production and

increase sales of high value cracker feed stock due to low crack spreads

over Dubai.

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*Country Demand of 2Q19 during April-May 2019

Source: Company data, EPPO

*Industry Average of 2Q19 during April-May 2019

Source: Company data, EPPO

7% 10% 10%3%

2% 3%1% 1% 2%11% 9% 9%

3%

36% 36% 35%

44%

7% 8% 7%

12%

25% 23% 23%

20%

4% 4% 4%4% 4% 4%

21%

2% 2% 2%

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 Countrydemand2Q19*

PGP

LPG

Light Naphtha

Gasoline

Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil

Asphalt

Mix C4

Others

86% 84%90%

84% 86% 86%

4%3%

5%

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

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17

01 Highlights

02 Market overview

03 Operational review

04 Financial performance

CONTENTS

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Financial performance

OPEX PER BARREL

Margin and OPEX

▪ Efficient in OPEX management.

Maintain NECC* at the breakpoint of quartile 1 and 2 against Asia Pacific.

▪ OPEX of 2Q19 increased due to Turnaround preparation and project

OPEX cost.

* Non Energy Cash Cost: Operating expenses exclude energy cost

US$/bbl

GROSS REFINERY MARGIN

18

▪ Accounting GRM:

➢ QoQ: Impacted from weak market margin with a slight stock loss of

US$0.28/bbl. (Net from stock gain US$0.32/bbl. offset by LCM

adjustment US$0.60/bbl.)

➢ YoY: Significantly decreased from low crack spread and stock loss in

2Q19.

▪ Market GRM:

➢ Lower from the continuing of poor crack spread over Dubai even better

Gasoline crack but offset with lower Middle Distillates and Fuel oil cracks.

US$/bbl

6.02

3.07 2.57

10.51

7.87

2.29

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

Market GRM Accounting GRM

1.621.97 1.81

0.24

0.79

2.08

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19

T&I and Project OPEX Normal OPEX

1.86

2.76

3.89

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NET INCOME

EBITDA and profitability

US$/bbl

EBITDA

US$ M US$ M

▪ EBITDA and profitability :

➢ 2Q19 EBITDA and Net income significantly decreased mainly from high increase T&I and Project OPEX and lower market refining margin included a slight

stock loss of US$3.9M (net from stock gain US$4.4 M offset by LCM adjustment US$8.3 M).

➢ FX gain for 2Q19 increased due to stronger Baht appreciation relative to the U.S. dollar.

19

Financial performance

116.285.7

(5.6)

233.5

80.2

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 6M18 6M19

72.8 52.9

(18.9)

153.6

34.0

2Q18 1Q19 2Q19 6M18 6M19

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2.3 (82.7)

(21.3)

102.6 0.3 1.2

Cash Flow

CASH FLOW

CFO:

➢ Cash generated from profit before tax of US$38.4M with cash used in working capital of US$101.4 due to temporary increase in inventories and LCM

reversal of US$53.9M.

CFI:

➢ Primarily on projects spending to increase refinery reliability and efficiency.

CFF:

➢ Increased from Short term loan of US$102.6M.

US$ M

20

Financial performance

Dec-2018 CFO CFFCFI FX

AdjustmentJune-2019

38.4

(101.4)

(0.6)

Profit before

tax

D&A and Non

cash items

Working capital

Tax & Interest

paid

(19.1)

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9.1

12.4

17.1

9.610.1

Dividend Policy and Yield

• SPRC’s dividend policy is to pay out at least 50% of net profits semi-annually.

• 1H19 Dividend payout at 50% of net profit

* Dividend yield based on closing stock price as of the performance period of dividend declaration

DIVIDEND POLICY

DIVIDEND PAYMENT

(Avg. 4.2%-4.8%)

21

Financial performance

0.2638

1.1824 1.1427

0.5928

0.1202

3.0%

10.8%

7.1%

4.6%

1.2%

-

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

1.4000

1.6000

2H15 2016 2017 2018 1H19

Dividend per share

Dividend Yield*

SETHD

Closing stock price as of

the performance period

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Looking ahead

No one gets hurt

Operational excellence

Bottom Line Improvement Program

Low gearing allows opportunities for growth

T&I Event and Capacity Expansion in 4Q19*

22*The combined costs for the Capacity Increase Project, planned maintenance, and upgrades in 2019 are approximately $256M.

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Appendices

23

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ASSET BREAKDOWN LIABILITIES & EQUITY

US$ M US$ M

24

Financial position

27 40

880 858

393 504

385

383

2

1

Dec-18 Jun-19

Cash and cashequivalents

Account receivables

Inventories

PP&E

Other current & noncurrent assets

1,7861,687

1,182 1,215

24 16

482 555

Dec-18 Jun-19

Current liabilities

Non current liabilities

Total Equity

1,7861,687

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Unit: US$ M 2Q18 1Q19 2Q19YoY QoQ

% +/- % +/-

Revenues 1,650.4 1,491.7 1,553.0 -6% 4%

OPEX (27.9) (40.7) (53.6) -92% -32%

EBITDA 116.2 85.7 (5.6) -105% -107%

Depreciation & Amortization (21.1) (21.0) (20.4) 3% 3%

Profit for the period 72.8 52.9 (18.9) -126% -136%

EPS (THB per share) 0.54 0.39 (0.14) -126% -135%

25

Income statement

6M18 6M196M

% +/-

3,210.1 3,044.7 -5%

(57.4) (94.3) 39%

233.5 80.2 -191%

(42.2) (41.4) -2%

153.6 34.0 -352%

1.13 0.25 -349%

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SALES BY VOLUME

US$/bbl

SALES BY REVENUE

▪ Chevron and PTT account for 87% of total sale in 2Q19 by revenue.

▪ Others are products sold as Petrochemical feedstock and intermediate product exchange.

53%34%

13%

55%33%

12%

Others

2Q18

Others

2Q1948%

35%

17%

Others

2Q18

Others

49%

33%

18%

Others

2Q19

26

Sales by customers

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Low gearing means we are

financially resilient and able to

gear up to seize growth

opportunities

STRONG BALANCE SHEET

One of world’s leading oil and

gas groups with over a century

of experience worldwide. The

Chevron connection brings

bargaining power, crude supply,

offtake agreements and access

to proprietary technology and

systems

CHEVRON RELATIONSHIP STRATEGIC LOCATION

Location in Map Ta Phut

ensures low logistics costs

with access to dedicated

deep water jetty and an

SPM for VLCCs. Puts us

close to several important

customers.

TECHNICAL CONFIGURATION

Our refinery configuration enables

us to buy cheaper crudes and turn

them into higher value products,

including a higher gasoline yield

than our competitors.

27

The SPRC competitive advantage

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CUSTOMERS(1)DISTRIBUTION(1)REFINERYCRUDE SUPPLY

(1) Based on 2Q19 data

REFINERY

Capacity: 165 KBDSingle point mooring system

265,000 DWTPower Generation

Facilities

41 MW

VLCCUp to 265,000 DWT

PANAMAXUp to 80,000 DWT Marine terminal

CRUDE

Capacity:

4.9 M

barrels

PRODUCT

Capacity:

4.0 M

barrels

PIPELINE

▪ Supply to north, north

east of Thailand and

Indochina export

market

VESSEL

▪ Dispatch to both

domestic and export

markets at Main Pier

▪ LPG Pier

DOMESTIC

EXPORT

Middle East64%

Far East12%

Domestic17%

SOURCES

OF CRUDE

FOR 2Q19

86%

14%

▪ Pipeline connects Map Ta Phut,

Sriracha & Bangkok

▪ Connections to petrochemical

customersTRUCK

41%

10%

49%

28

Business overview

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29

A brief history

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Key contractual arrangements

CRUDE OIL

NATURAL GAS

REFINERY

POWER AND STEAM

PRODUCTS

SPMS

MARINE

TERMINAL

1

2

3

4

5 LPG

JET

GASOLINE

DIESEL

FUEL OIL

ASPHALT

HVGO

PROPYLENE

OTHERS

7

6

8

FEEDSTOCK TECHNICAL & OPERATING OFFTAKE

SP

RC

BU

SIN

ES

SK

EY

AG

RE

EM

EN

TS New Feedstock Supply

Agreement(1)

Single Point Mooring System

Operating Agreement

Natural Gas Sales

Contract for

Cogeneration and

Natural Gas Sales

Contract for Petroleum

Product Manufacturing

Process

1

2

3

Marine Services

Transportation Agreement

Technical Services Agreement and

License Agreement

4

5

Amended Offtake

Agreement(1)

Propylene

Sale Agreement

Intermediate Products

Exchange Agreement

6

7

8

COUNTERPARTIESCOUNTERPARTIESCOUNTERPARTIES

(1) Effective upon the first day of trading of SPRC’s shares on the SET

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SPRC Crude Capacity

165 KBD

Naphtha Hydrotreating Unit

(NHTU) 19 KBD

Crude Distillation Unit

(CDU) 165 KBD

Vacuum Distillation Unit

(VDU) 63 KBD

Continuous Catalytic

Regeneration Reformer

(CCR) 17 KBD

Residue Fluidized

Catalytic Cracking Unit

(RFCCU) 41 KBD

Heavy Vacuum Gas Oil

Hydrotreating Unit (HVGO

HTU) 35 KBD

Whole Cat Naphtha

Hydrotreating

(WCN) 23 KBD

Jet Merox Unit

(JMU) 20 KBD

Diesel Hydrotreating Unit

(DHTU) 66 KBD

Benzene Saturation Unit

(BSU) 15 KBD

LPG

Chemical Naphtha

Mogas

PGP

Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil

Asphalt

31

Refinery complexity

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Energy Management

• Energy roadmap with

monthly and yearly targets

• Energy AOS every 2 years

• US$0.02-0.11 /bbl

Margin Improvement

People Efficiency and

Waste Management

Oil Loss Control

• Lean sigma

• Cost leadership

• US$1-6 MM/year

• Data reconciliation

• US$0.02-0.05 /bbl

• Yearly Innovation Quest

(IQ) and Asset Optimization

Studies (AOS)

• Monthly core team meeting

• Rigorous benefit tracking

BLIP

US$/bbl

Despite a challenging margin

environment, SPRC continues to drive

incremental margin improvement

through BLIP

Crude benefit over

Benchmark crudes

US$0.55-0.80/bbl

Product yield and

placement optimization

US$0.20-0.90/bbl

Process plant optimization US$0.60-0.80/bbl

Cracker feed synergy US$0.10-0.40/bbl

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BLIP (Bottom Line Improvement Program)

2.69 2.592.93

2.34 2.39

2016 2017 2018 1Q19 2Q19

Page 33: Opportunity Day - Stock Exchange of Thailand · Opportunity Day 2Q/2019 results . The information contained in this presentation is intended solely for your reference. This presentation

Thank You

Any queries, please contact SPRC Investor Relations

at email: [email protected]

Tel: +6638 699 887

Website: http://investor.sprc.co.th

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