Opportunities for Deployment of Superefficient Air Conditioners in … · Household ownership of...
Transcript of Opportunities for Deployment of Superefficient Air Conditioners in … · Household ownership of...
Nihar Shah, PhD, PE
THIRD ANNUAL CO3OL WORKSHOP
DECEMBER 5-7, 2016
WORLD BANK, WASHINGTON, DC
Opportunities for Deployment of Superefficient Air
Conditioners in Tandem with Refrigerant Transition:
Examples from India, Pakistan
Introduction to Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Dedicated to solving the most pressing scientific problems facing humankind.
More than two decades of work internationally on energy and climate policy,
appliances, buildings, transport, industry, air quality.
Significant focus on energy efficiency.
Technical Support to US DOE Appliance Standards Rulemakings.
Technical Support to Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) Advanced Cooling(AC)
Challenge, Superefficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative
and US –India Space Cooling Collaboration.
Technical Support to China National Institute of Standardization (CNIS) to revise
Air Conditioner standard with low- global warming potential (GWP) criterion.
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Managed by the University of California for
the United States Department of Energy
13 — Nobel Prizes13 — National Medal of Science recipients 4,200 — Employees 200 — Site acreage
Outline
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• Background and Trends• Opportunity• Recent Work• Summary
Global AC Market and Low-GWP alternatives
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Source: DOE,“Future of Airconditioning for Buildings” , 2016
• Largest AC product categories by global sales are Ductless split and VRF/VRV systems followed by chillers and packaged rooftop units and then small(window and portable) ACs.
Growth in China’s AC market
Source: NSSO, 2012, Fridley et al., 2012
• The AC ownership rate in urban China went from almost 0% in 1990s to over 100% in ~15 years.
• China today is a ~50 million/year AC market, ~80GW of connected load added per year, ~120 ACs per 100 urban households.
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Clothes Washers
Color TVs
Refrigerators
Room Air Conditioners
India2011
Future cooling needs
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Source: Davis et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015
• India, South East Asia, Nigeria and Brazil all have much higher cooling needs (indicated as cooling degree days) compared to China.
• AC sales in major emerging economies are growing at rates similar to China circa 1994‒1995, e.g., India room AC sales growing at ~10-15%/year, Brazil at ~20%/year (Shah et al., 2013).
• As incomes grow, and urbanization, electrification continue, cooling needs are likely to grow significantly as well.
Incomes and Uptake of ACs
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Urban Households by Expenditure Percentile
Household ownership of air coolers and air
conditioners by expenditure class in India (2010)
Source: NSSO 2012
Growing incomes lead to jump in ownership of ACs
Current and Future Estimated Stock
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• Global Room AC stock is estimated to grow significantly from
now till 2050 with much of the growth in major emerging economies such as China,
India, Brazil, Pakistan and SE Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand).
• Projections based on LBNL’s BUENAS model also used by IEA in World Energy
Outlook.
Sales-based 2015 Stock (Millions)
Residential
Commercial Total
Brazil 17.5 11.6 29.1
Chile 0.4 0.7 1.1
China* 326.7 146.8 473.5
Colombia 0.8 0.6 1.4
Egypt 3.1 2.1 5.2
India 14 4.7 18.7
Indonesia 10.5 7 17.6
Mexico 4.1 0.9 5.1
Pakistan 1.7 0.6 2.2
S. Arabia 4.7 1.2 5.9
Thailand 8.4 5.1 13.5
United Arab Emirates
2.1 0.6 2.7
Vietnam 5.1 2.1 7.2
Total 399.3 183.9 583.2
2015
Total: 900 Million units
2030
Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Egypt
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Pakistan
S. Arabia
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Vietnam
Rest of the world OECD
Rest of the world non-OECDTotal: 1,600 Million units
Global AC Stock Forecast
2050
Brazil
Chile
China
Colombia
Egypt
India
Indonesia
Mexico
Pakistan
S. Arabia
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Vietnam
Rest of the world OECD
Rest of the world non-OECDTotal: 2,500 Million units
Large Grid Impact of Cooling Peak Load
~2200 MW(60%)
~1600 MW(40%)
Source: End-use peak load forecast for Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Itron and LBNL, 2012
Cooling comprises ~30% of current and forecasted peak load in California…
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…and 40%‒60% of summer
peak load in large metropolitan cities with hot climates, such as Delhi, India.
CALIFORNIA DELHI
Source: DSLDC, 2012
Outline
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• Background and Trends• Opportunity• Recent Work• Summary
Kigali amendment brings a win-win opportunity to reduce
both CO2 and HFC emissions!
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Source: Hu et al, 2013, Nature Climate Change
Control of CO2 and HFC emissions needed
Refrigerant 100 yr GWP
R134a (HFC) 1430
R404A (HFC) 3900
R410A (HFC) 2100
R22 (HCFC) 1810
Opportunity: Simultaneous Efficiency
Improvement and Refrigerant Transition
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• Air Conditioners are typically one of the first products to be targeted for a energy
efficiency standards or labeling program and will also undergo refrigerant transition
under Kigali Amendment.
• Both refrigerant transition and efficiency improvement typically require redesign of
appliances and retooling of manufacturing lines.
• Coordinated efficiency improvement with refrigerant transition can keep costs low for
consumers, manufacturers, utilities and funders.
• Previous work: Coordinated efficiency improvement with refrigerant transition can
roughly double the climate benefit of either policy in isolation. –(Shah et al 2015).
Requires:
• close co-ordination of timelines, co-operation between environment and energy
ministries.
• technical and market knowledge- baselines and efficiency potential.
• capacity building on both energy efficiency and refrigerant transition.
Efficiency Standards & Labeling
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Country Ducted AC Non-Ducted AC First Most Recent
Australia VC MC 1987 2010Brazil ?? MC 2007 2011
Canada MC MC ? 2015China MC MC 2005 2010
EU MC MC 2002 2013Indonesia None None 2008 2017
India M M 2006 2016Japan M M ? 2008
South Korea M M 1993 2012Mexico MC MC 2006 2007
South Africa VC (?) VC (?) 2005 ??USA MC MC 1990 2013UAE M M 2001 2015
• Many larger economies typically have S&L programs for room ACs – These may
need to be updated.
• Smaller A5 countries may need assistance in developing S&L programs.
• Since the market is global, technical data can be easily repurposed and
customized.
M Mandatory
V Voluntary
C Categorical
Significant efficiency improvement is commercially possible today!
Significant efficiency improvement potential
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CSPF
AC models of one brand on Korean Market
42%
55%
“Global average”
Source: KEMCO, 2015
Outline
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• Background and Trends• Opportunity• Recent Work• Summary
Quick Aside-Test Procedures and Metrics
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• Most economies use ISO5151 as a reference test standard and until recently
used EER(Energy Efficiency Ratio) as an efficiency metric.
• Some Economies: US, EU, Japan, Korea, China, India have now adopted a
“seasonal metric” that can capture better part-load and seasonal performance
from inverter ACs.
• India is first economy to use ISO 16358 to combine fixed speed and inveter ACs in same
seasonal metric –Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (ISEER).
• Energy savings from more efficient RACs are calculated based on engineering analysis of
possible efficiency improvement from various components.
• Costs of these efficient components are collected from manufacturers in India.
• Estimated improvement of ISEER is calculated for various combinations of components using
the ISEER calculator to generate a manufacturing cost vs ISEER curve.
• Retail price increase required to cover the cost of efficiency improvement is compared with
electricity bill savings to calculate the payback period for consumers.
Costs of Efficient Components
Energy Savings from Efficient Components
Engineering Analysis of different
combinations of components
BEE ISEER metric
calculator
Manufacturing Cost vs ISEER
Curve
Estimated Retail Price vs
ISEERCurve
Markups based on actual retail
prices
Hours of use and electricity
prices
Lifecycle Costs and
Payback Period
Recent Work in India: Methodology
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Inputs
Outputs
Recent Work in India: Base Case Assumptions
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• The “base case model” from which efficiency improvements are
modeled is a1.5 ton mini-split AC with efficiency of 2.8 W/W (ISEER).
• 1.5 tons (or 5.25 kW) is the most popular cooling capacity and
accounts for roughly 60-65% of the market in India.
• Manufacturing cost of various components are collected from
various manufacturers in India.
• The total “bill of materials” manufacturing cost for the base case
model is Rs 11,000-14,500 as shown below.
Component
Cost Low
Range Rs Cost High Range Rs
Indoor Unit Heat Exchanger 1200 1370
Indoor Unit Fan motor 600 680
Outdoor Unit Compressor 3400 4100
Outdoor Unit Heat Exchanger 1500 1940
Outdoor Unit Sheet Metal 1200 1550
Outdoor Unit Fan blade 200 570
Outdoor Unit Fan Motor 450 640
Outdoor Unit Refrigerant 450 800
Outdoor Unit
Other
Components 2000 2850
Total 11000 14500
Source: Shah et al, 2016
Recent Work in India: Energy Savings and Component Costs
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• % Energy savings for each component are based on EU EcoDesign Study.
• Manufacturing costs are estimated based on data collected from various Indian
and global manufacturers.
• Markup of ~140% is arrived at by collecting actual retail prices on the market for
1.5 ton base models ~30,000-34,500.
• Sensitivity analysis is conducted with markup between 80%-160%.
Energy
Savings
from
Base
Case
Baseline Range Baseline Compressor (2.8 EER), 1.5 TR Cooling - -
3.0 EER compressor 5.50% 200 100-300
3.2 EER compressor 10.50% 400 200-600
3.4 EER compressor 15.00% 575 280-860
Alternating Current Compressor variable speed drive 21.00% 3,600 1800-5400
Direct Current Compressor variable speed drive 23.00% 5,400 2700-8100
Variable speed drives for fans and compressor 26.00% 6,300 3150-9450
UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 20% 7.50% 1,470 735-2200
UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 40% 13.50% 3,240 1620-4860
UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 60% 17.50% 4,210 2100-6310
UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 80% 21.00% 6,080 3040-9120
UA value of both heat exchangers increased by 100% 24.00% 7,350 3675-11000
Thermostatic Expansion Valve 3.50% 250 125-375
Electronic Expansion Valve 6.50% 1500 750-2250
Component
Incremental
Manufacturing Cost
(Rs)
Compressor
Variable
speed drive
Heat
Exchanger
Expansion
valve
Source: Shah et al, 2016
Recent Results from India: Manufacturing Costs, Retail Prices vs Efficiency
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• Retail price estimates based on “bottom-up” engineering analysis are aligned with
actual retail prices of ACs on the Indian market.
• Payback period analysis shows efficiency improvement upto 5.2 ISEER has a
payback of less than 3 years even under a “high cost” scenario.
• Efficiency Improvement upto 3.5 ISEER has a payback period of nearly1 year even
under a “high cost” scenario.
Source: Shah et al, 2016
Preliminary Results for Pakistan: Manufacturing Costs, Retail Prices vs Efficiency
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• Payback period analysis shows efficiency improvement upto 4.7 EER has a
payback of less than 3 years.
• Efficiency Improvement upto 3.5 EER has a payback period of about 6 months
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Least Mfg Costs and Retail Prices vs Efficiency
Manufacturing Cost
Estimated Retail Price
Source: Adapted from Shah et al, 2016 data
• Significant estimated growth in the AC market particularly in major emerging economies- driven by
rising incomes, cooling degree days.
• Large scale impact of air conditioning on electricity generation and peak load, particularly in hot climates
and populous countries.
• Kigali Amendment offers an opportunity for efficiency improvement along with refrigerant transition and
would lower costs for consumers, manufacturers, utilities and funders
• Coordinated action on efficiency improvement and refrigerant transition would double the climate
benefit of either policy implemented in isolation.
• Significant cost effective potential for efficiency improvement exists.
• Needs:
• Larger economies typically have efficiency S&L programs–may need to be updated
• Smaller A5 countries may need assistance in developing S&L programs.
• Close co-ordination of timelines between environment and energy ministries.
• Capacity building on both energy efficiency and refrigerant transition.
• Since the market is global, technical data can be easily repurposed and customized.
• Some countries may need help developing seasonal metrics based on ISO 16358 to capture energy
savings from inverter ACs.
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Summary
Questions, Suggestions?
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http://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/benefits-of-leapfrogging-to-superef-0
Contact: Nihar Shah [email protected]
https://eetd.lbl.gov/publications/cost-benefit-of-improving-the-efficie
“Types” of efficiency improvement
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Explanation Factors Magnitude of Energy Savings
A Refrigerant Some Alternate Low-GWP refrigerants being considered are more efficient
• Full optimization likely to bring even more efficiency improvement
~5% +
B Replacement New ACs are more efficient than old ACs
• decline in performance over the life
• Current standards are more stringent
• Current technology is more efficient
~10-50%
C Market Transformation(e.g. standards,labeling, incentives, awards etc.)
Best performing ACs on the market are 40-50% more efficient than average
• Best available technology is significantly more efficient
• Variable speed drives
~20-40%
Total 1-(0.95x0.7x0.7) >50%
• Assistance should ideally focus on A and C. B will happen “anyway”.
• Requires technical and market data to characterize “baseline” and efficiency potential – Key
for ambitious action!
Coordinated Action: Global Lifetime
Emissions Reduction in 2030
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• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition roughly doubles the
emissions benefit of either policy undertaken in isolation.
• Countries with higher hours of use or a more carbon-intensive grid
benefit more from efficiency.
EfficiencyRef Transition
Brazil 23% 77%
Chile 46% 54%
China 62% 38%
Colombia 55% 45%
Egypt 62% 38%
India 74% 26%
Indonesia 69% 31%
Mexico 61% 39%
S. Arabia 64% 36%
Thailand 76% 24%United Arab Emirates 59% 41%
Vietnam 74% 26%
Pakistan 66% 34%
Average 61% 39%
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Lifetime EmissionsAbatement
Potential in 2030(GT CO2e)
Direct EmissionsAbatement fromRefrigerantTransition
Indirect EmissionsAbatement fromRefrigerantTransition
Indirect EmissionsAbatement fromEfficiencyImprovement
Source: Shah et al, 2015
Coordinated Action: Reduction in 2030 and 2050
Peak Load (GW)
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• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition has a significant
peak load reduction potential.
• Countries with higher hours of use, and larger AC markets show more peak load
reduction.
2030 2050
Efficiency
improvement
Refrigerant
transition
Efficiency
Improvement &
Refrigerant
transition
Number of
Avoided 500
MW Peak
Power Plants Efficiency
improvement
Refrigerant
transition
Efficiency
Improvement &
Refrigerant
transition
Number of
Avoided 500
MW Peak
Power Plants
Brazil 14-32 2.3-5.4 15.4-36 31-72 41.3-96.4 6.9-16.1 46-108 92-216
Chile 0.44 -1.0 0.1-0.2 0.5-1.1 1-2 0.9- 2.2 0.2-0.4 1.0-2.0 2-4
China 118 -277 20-46 132-310 264-620 138.5-323.2 23.1-54 155-361 310-720
Colombia 1.9-4.3 0.3-0.7 2.1-4.8 4-10 4.7-10.9 0.8-1.8 5.0-12.0 10-24
Egypt 2.6-6.2 0.4-1.0 3.0-7.0 6-14 9.0-21.0 1.5-3.5 10.0-23.0 20-46
India 27.3-63.8 4.56 -10.63 31-71 61-142 98-229 16.4-38.2 110-256 219-511
Indonesia 17.8-41.5 3.0-7.0 20-46 40-92 27-63 4.5-10.5 30-71 60-140
Mexico 1.8-4.2 0.3-0.7 2.0-4.7 4-10 5-11.6 0.8-1.9 5.5-13 11-26
Pakistan 1.2-2.9 0.21-0.48 1.0-3.0 2-6 8.0-19 1-3.0 9.0-21 18-42
Saudi Arabia 1.7-4.0 0.3-0.7 2-4.4 4-9 2.2-5.1 0.4-0.9 2.4-6 5-12
Thailand 5.2-12.2 0.9-2.0 6-13.7 12-28 6-13.8 1-2.3 6.6-15 14-30
UAE 0.71-1.7 0.1-0.3 0.8-1.9 2-4 1-2.3 0.2-0.4 1.1-3 2-6
Vietnam 5.8-13.4 1-2.2 6.4-15 13-30 6.7-15.7 1.1-2.6 7.5-18 15-36
Global 302-705 50-117 338-788 676-1576 487-1137 81-190 544-1270 1090-2540
Source: Shah et al, 2015
Coordinated Action: Annual GHG Impact of AC policies in
2030
Transformation of the AC industry to produce super –efficient ACs and low GWP
refrigerants in 2030 could provide GHG savings of 0.85 GT/year annually in China.
equivalent to over 8 Three Gorges dams and over 0.32 GT/year annually in India,
roughly twice India’s solar mission.
Source: Shah et al, 2015
Structure of Model
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Total EmissionsReduction PotentialTotal Emissions
Reduction Potential from Efficiency
Improvement Only
Total Emissions Reduction Potential
from Refrigerant Transition Only
Market Data: Sales, Growth Rates,
Lifetimes
Efficiency Results from the Superefficient
Equipment and Appliance Deployment
Initiative (SEAD)
Shah et al 2013 found ~30% efficiency improvement cost effective in most countries.
Structure of Model
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GWP: Global Warming PotentialAREP: Air-conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) Low Global Warming Potential (GWP) Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program (AREP)
Base Case Assumptions
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Cooling Capacity (tons) 1.5
Appliance Lifetime 10
Power Consumption (kW) 1.81
Energy Efficiency Ratio (W/W) 2.9
Refrigerant Charge (kg) 1.7
Refrigerant Leakage Rate(%/year) 10.0%
End of Life Refrigerant Loss Rate (kg) 100%
Recharge at % loss 35%
Charge/ton of AC capacity (kg/ton) 1.10
Number of recharges 2
Total Lifetime Charge Emitted (kg) 2.81
Total % Charge Emitted 170%
• R410A 1.5 ton mini-split AC with 2.9 W/W Energy Efficiency Ratio(EER).
• Mini-splits most common type of AC globally (60-95%)
• 1.5 tons is most popular cooling capacity in many global markets
e.g. 60-65% of market in India.
• 2.9 EER representative of “average” efficiency found on global market, close to
many minimum standards (e.g. 2.7 EER for fixed speed ACs in India (2015 one
star) and 3.1 EER in China)
AHRI Low-GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program
(AREP) Phase 1(2012-2014) & Phase 2 (2015-2016)
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• Voluntary co-operative research and testing program to identify suitable
alternatives to high-GWP refrigerants.
• Standard reporting format for candidate refrigerants strongly desired by
industry.
Source: AHRI, 2014
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AHRI Low-GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program
(AREP) Phase 1(2012-2014) & Phase 2 (2015-2016)
Source: AHRI, 2016
• Lowest GWP >450.
• Some R32 HFO blends e.g. DR 55 appear to be optimized for flammability, very
low burning velocity.
Deliberative draft—Not for distribution
Evolution of Refrigerant Use
Source: Adapted from Calm, International Journal of Refrigeration, 2008,http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140700708000261
High Cooling Energy Consumption in Largest Metros
Many of the world’s most populous metropolitan areas have hot climates
Bubble size indicates population
Madras
Jakarta (13.2M)
Mumbai (18.2M)
Calcutta
Delhi
MiamiRio de Janeiro
ShenzhenGuangzhou
Sao Paulo
Osaka Shanghai
TokyoBeijing
Seoul
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2500
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4000
4500
Cooling Degree
Days
Source: Sivak, 2009
Growth in Renewable Generation and Cooling Energy, 2010‒2020
Incremental electricity consumption from residential ACs alone is >50% of solar and wind generation projected to be added between 2010 and 2020.
Wind
Solar PV
Solar CSP
AustraliaBrazil
China
European Union
India
IndonesiaJapan
Mexico
United States
T&D Losses
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Renewable energy generation: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 (Current Policies scenario).Residential air conditioning consumption: Shah et al. (2013); LBNL’s Room AC analysis for the SEAD initiative; and V. Letschert et al. (2012), LBNL’s BUENAS model.