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Opportunities and limits to manage SOC for improving food production

under climate change

Ana Iglesias

UPM, Spain

OECD Joint Conference: Agriculture and agricultural soils facing climate change and food security challenges: public policies and practices. Sept 16, 2015, Paris

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Thank you!

HORIZON 2020

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food production limits

solar radiation

tempera-ture

precipi-tation

soils

managementA view of the problem from the academic side

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Source: Falloon and Betts (2010)

(A, B) Changes in soil carbon content (A, kg C m−2) (B, %). from the RothC soil carbon model driven by HadCM3LC coupled climate carbon cycle model projections (Jones et al., 2005)

(C) resulting changes in available water holding capacity (AWC—cm3 water per cm3 soil), Changes in AWC calculated according to Huntington (2006)by 2100 relative to 2000

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transpiration

runoff

rainfallirrigation

top soil

deep soil

evaporation

rizosphere

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Screening options for SOC increase: Real Learning Studies

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9

1,400

600

1,200

800

400

200

0

-200

-400

-600

-800

-1,000

1,000

-1,200

Ro

tatio

n-wh

eat(rain)

Man

ure-b

arley(irr)C

over-m

aize&vetch

(irr)

Min

till-barley(rain

)

Man

ure-m

aize(irr)M

in ti

ll-barley(irr)

Man

ure-b

arley(rain)

Op

t fert-barley(rain

)

Op

t fert-wh

eat(irr)

Op

t fert-wh

eat(rain)

Co

ver-vineyard

Co

ver-olives

Co

ver-almo

nd

Res m

an-wh

eat(rain)

Res m

an-barley(rain

)Res man-barley(irr)

Res m

an-wh

eat(irr)

100

Ro

tatio

n-barley(rain

)

Co

st e

ffec

tive

nes

s (

€/tC

O 2e/

ha)

Abatement potential (MtCO2e)

0.50.3 0.60.40.20.1 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Mini till-barley (rainfed)

Cost

- eff

ectiv

enes

s (€

/tCO

2e/h

a)

Abatement potential(MtCO2e)

Cover crops-almond

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Marginal abatement cost curve (MACC)

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Benefit of adaptation

Benefit of mitigation

Loss of mitigation

Loss of adaptation

Smart measures

Incoherent measures

Global-only measures

Local-only measures (self-benefit)

atmosphere

soil

crop

management

A view of the problem from the academic side

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Simulated maize yield response to planting date at two sites for two varieties for over 25 seasons

PLANTING DATE

YIE

LD

(T

/HA

)

SEP 29 OCT 29 NOV 28 DEC 28 JAN 27

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6

5

4

3

2

1

0

MWIMBA MH-16

10th percentile50th percentile90th percentile

motivation

peoplepolicy

barriers

institutions behaviour

opportunities

limits

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Internal ExternalDrivers Extreme weather events Efforts by institutional org.

Incr. public awareness Efforts by the EURecognising benefits of policy Financial support from

institutional fundsDomestic political pressure Pressure form NGOsScientific research Progress in other countries

(technology)Barriers Lack of political awareness Neighbouring countries not

adoptingLack of institutional capacity Lack of institutional rewardsLack of financial resources Lack of guidance by the EULack of time and human resources

Communication and language

Potentially relevant variables (modified after Massey et al, 2014)

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Assumption: Climate policy that is effective has to be politically acceptable (does that mean supported by citizens?; is that linked to knowledge?)– Rhodes, Axsen, Jaccard (2014)– Stoutenborough, Vedlitz (2014)

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potential barriers to implement SOC measures

low medium high or very high

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ana.iglesias@upm.es