Opportunities and Challenges

in More Localized Food Systems

Michael W. HammC.S. Mott Professor of Sustainable Agriculture

Depts. ofCommunity, Agriculture, Recreation and Resource Studies

Food Science and Human NutritionCrop and Soil Sciences

Michigan State University

Why is Sustainability an Important Central Tenet for Our Work?

• Key Facts– Recent volcanic island so fertile soils– 27 degrees south- overly cool for many

things like coconuts to do well and water overly cool for coral reefs and associated fish abundance (about same south as Houston, TX is north)

Picture from: http://members.virtualtourist.com/m/7cbc2/946/

Easter Island A Cautionary Tale

1300 milesMap from: http://www.mapsouthpacific.com/pacific/index.html

Food Supply and Ecology

• At time of discovery (Early 1700’s )– Sweet potatoes, yams taro, bananas, sugarcane, chickens– 66 square miles of grassland with no trees or bushes above

10 ft.– No native animals larger than insects

• When early Polynesians first arrived– The island was forested with diverse understory– Trees were species that could provide rope material, dense

firewood and boat making materials– 1/3 of all bones were from porpoises– Bones of six bird species with at least 25 nesting species

altogether

Chain of Events

Wood gets cut

Can’t make many canoes

Can’t go out to hunt porpoises

Find more chicken bones

Chain of Events

Wood gets cut

Soil more erodable

Crop productivity declines

Social Consequences

Starvation

Population Crash

Cannibalism

War and Statue Defamation

American Farmland Trust http://www.farmland.org/farmingontheedge/downloads.htm

The Three Challenges:number 1 – Farmer Loss

  1-9 acres 10-49 acres 50-499 acres >500 acres

1964 2,659 17,753 70,740 2,352

1980 2,343 13,284 39,195 4,544

2000 2,628 11,037 22,997 5,178

2020 2,756 9,982 13,375 5,367

2040 2,847 9,229 6,506 6,479

% Change (1964-2040)

7% 48% 92% 275%

% Change (2000-2040) +8% -16% -71% +125%

From: Public Sector Associates: Michigan Land Resources Project (2001)

The Three Challenges:number 2 – Diet and Activity Loss

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 1985

(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4” person)

From: Overweight and Obesity: Obesity Trends: U.S. Obesity Trends 1985–2005 (downloaded from: http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/trend/maps/index.htm

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

Obesity Trends* Among U.S. AdultsBRFSS, 2005

(*BMI ≥30, or ~ 30 lbs overweight for 5’ 4” person)

From: Overweight and Obesity: Obesity Trends: U.S. Obesity Trends 1985–2005 (downloaded from: http://www.cdc.gov/nccdphp/dnpa/obesity/trend/maps/index.htm

No Data <10% 10%–14% 15%–19% 20%–24% 25%–29% ≥30%

The Three Challenges:number 3 – Job Loss

• 98.4% of the 211,567 businesses in MI are classified as small

• MI lost over 2,000 businesses between 2000 – 2002

• MI 37th in the country in terms of firm formation for 2002

• i.e. lots of opportunity and need

Growth and DevelopmentGrowth = an increase in size through

material accretion

Development = realization of fuller and greater potential

Is the Land Grant role

at this point primarily

one of growth or

development?

The Land Grant Role

Help provide a context for decision

making about alternatives and

options

A Framework

Community Development

Attribute-driven Production

Place-Based Development

Value-Chain Networks

Health

Farming

Economics

A Strategy

Environment

Picture from SUSTAINABLE POULTRY: PRODUCTION OVERVIEW at http://www.attra.org/attra-pub/PDF/poultryoverview.pdf

People maintaininga quality standard

of life as they mature and

age

Our natural resourcebase enhanced forfuture generations

Vibrant rural and urbancommunities

A diversity of viable farms

Food Attributes Consumers Are Willing to Pay for in the

Marketplace• Place (Local - e.g. Select Michigan)• Organic• Scale (e.g. small family farm)• Environmental (e.g. low pesticide use, bird

friendly)• Animal friendly/animal welfare• Heritage breed/variety• Labor standards and returns (e.g. fair trade)

Consumers

• Hartman group divides into:– Core (13%)– Mid-level (62%)– Periphery (24%)

• 10 years ago– Organic foods in the core

• Today– Organic foods in the mid-level– Local, bio-dynamic, fair food in the core– Periphery moved to healthier such as “natural”

Consumers (cont.)

• Some core consumers saying local more important

• 50% of consumers said locally grown affected purchases

• 38% of consumers said organic affected purchases

Case Study - Fruits and Vegetables in Michigan

Consumption of Fruits and Vegetables

7% of population achieves 5-7-9 servings or more when french fries and potato

chips are excluded

Produce for Better Health Foundation “State of the Plate”

Ratio of Fresh Vegetable Imports to Exports in US

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Taken from http://www.fas.usda.gov/scriptsw/bico/bico.asp?Entry=lout&doc=1270* C. Benbrook “ Minimizing Pesticide Dietary Exposure Through the Consumption of Organic Food: An Organic Center State of Science Review” (2004)

•And on average imported have higher levels of pesticide residues than domestic in a particular product category*

What if Consumers in Michigan Ate 5 Servings of Fruits and Vegetables Per Day?

Nearly 100 pounds of fruits and vegetables per adult more

Approximately 78,000 acres of production

And now we are recommending 7 -9 servings a day

Maximum crop acreage adjustments implied by full adoption of select

recommendations from the 2005 Dietary Guidelines for Americans

J. C. Buzby, H. Farah Wells, and G. V. Possible Implications for U.S. Agriculture From Adoption of Select Dietary Guidelines (ERS Report #31, 2006)

Nutritional Considerations

Marionberries

Strawberries

Cornconventional (gray bars), organic (white bars),or sustainable (black bars) agricultural practices

D. K. ASAMI, Y.-J. HONG, D. M. BARRETT, AND A. E. MITCHELL J. Agric. Food Chem. 2003, 51, 1237-1241

Production Strategies

Variety Variation

• E.g. Brown et al at Univ. of Illinois have found significant variation in

phytochemical concentration due to genotype

Authors:

Patty Cantrell

David Conner

George Erickcek

Michael Hamm

Download at:mottgroup.msu.edu

ormlui.org

Potential Market Changes

Market

Estimatedcurrent share

of MIproduction

Proposed share of MI production

Net gain to MI farms*

Fruit – Direct Market 0.5% Up to 1.6%$70 millionFruit – Fresh

Wholesale25% Up to 50%

Vegetables – Direct Market

0.5% Up to 1.6%$81 million

Vegetables – Wholesale

56% Up to 83%

Potatoes-Direct Market

0.9% 2.6%$13 million

Potatoes-Wholesale

24% 48%

Total Increase** $164 million

Economic Impacts

•Up to 1,889 jobs•$187 million in new, personal income

Improved Diet

• Iowa- 25% of current consumption of 37 fruits and vegetables shift to being grown in Iowa– Approx. 2300 net new jobs if all direct markets– Approx. 1200 net new jobs if 50% direct markets

• Iowa- all Iowans consume 5 servings per day– Approx. 4000 net new jobs

• Iowa- all Iowans consume 7 servings per day– Approx. 5600 net new jobs

D. Swenson (2006) The Economic Impacts of Increased Fruit and Vegetable Production and Consumption in Iowa: Phase II (downloaded at http://www.leopold.iastate.edu/pubs/staff/health/health.htm)

Michigan Farmers’ Markets in relation to Urban Areas (2000)

Urban areas (Census 2000)

Farmers’ markets

Urban areas (Census 2000)

Farmers’ markets

Socio-Ecological and Geographical Analysis of Michigan’s Agriculture: Toward a Policy and Planning Tool for Sustainable Agriculture in MichiganJim Bingen, Manuel Colunga, and Stuart GageResource Development and Computational Ecology and Visualization Laboratory (Entomology Department)

Greenhouse and High Tunnel Production- Sustainably

Expanding the Season and the Markets

Organic Market

• $10 billion in 2003

• 2% of total grocery sales BUT growing 8 times faster than grocery sector as a whole

• Projected $32.3 billion by 2009

• Will likely exceed 20% growth rate in future

Recent Growth Patterns in the U.S. Organic Foods Market. By C. Dimitri and C. Greene USDA-ERS

Recent Growth Patterns in the U.S. Organic Foods Market. By C. Dimitri and C. Greene USDA-ERS

Recent Growth Patterns in the U.S. Organic Foods Market. By C. Dimitri and C. Greene USDA-ERS

What does this mean for Michigan?

• About $66 million of organic fruit and vegetable sales

• About $22 million of organic bread and grain sales

• About $15 million of organic milk sales

What might this mean for farmers?

Recent Growth Patterns in the U.S. Organic Foods Market. By C. Dimitri and C. Greene USDA-ERS

Access for All Members of a Community

Taken from K. Pothukuchi, The Detroit Food System (2003)

Food Desserts

Household Expenditure for Fruits and Vegetables

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Ho

use

ho

ld E

xpen

dit

ure

Per

Y

ear lowest 20%

highest 20%

From: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey http://www.bls.gov/cex/home.htm#top

E.g. MSU Product Center

Business Dev.

Training

E.g. 2 yr Organic Farming Program

at MSU

Land

E.g. Land Link

ProgramE.g. MIFMA

Markets

Capital

E.g. IDA’s andSmall Loan

Program

E.g. MSUERSA

Information

New Farms – Seeding Economies

Food Is a Homeland

Security Issue

The End

mottgroup.msu.edumhamm@msu.edu