Opinion Poll April 2013

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Opinion Survey on Current National Issues

April 2013

Submitted to:

Daily Prothom AloCA Bhaban

100 Kazi Nazrul Islam AvenueKarwan Bazar, Dhaka-1215

Prepared by:

Org-Quest Research Limited

Unique Trade Center (UTC), Level - 6 (SE)8 Panthapath

Dhaka - 1215

Bangladesh


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April 30, 2013

1. STUDY OBJECTIVE & METHOD

1. Study Objective and Method:

1.1. Study Objective: Objective of the study was to ascertain public opinion on current national

burning issues.

1.2. Issues Covered:

Shahbag movement

Current situation of the country and steps taken by the government in the current context

Governments ability to control post trial situation (of Abdul Quader Molla and DelwarHossain Saydee)

Banning of Jamaat-e-Islam

Election time government

Likelihood of Army intervention

Political alliances

1.3. Target Respondents: Adult males and females (18 years and above)

1.4. Geographical Coverage: The survey was nationally representative, covering all

administrative divisions and both urban and rural areas, conducted in thirty (30) districts

(primary sampling unit PSU) across the country as can be seen in the attached map.

1.5. Sample Size: Sample size n=3000

Area Type Male Female Total

Urban 375 375 750

Rural 1137 1113 2250

Total 1512 1488 3000

1.6. Sampling Technique: Stratified systematic random sampling technique by dividing thecountry into seven (7) divisions and urban and rural areas based on the Population Census 2011.Respondents were selected randomly with the help of KISH table from systematically selected

households. Estimated margin of error: 1.79

The survey strictly adhered to the internationally accepted methodology and ethical standard as

per the guideline of European Society for Opinion and Market Research (ESOMAR).

1.7. Interview technique:Face to face through door to door visit.

1.8. Fieldwork Period: 09 - 20 April, 2013


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2. Summary Findings:

The survey was done to ascertain public perception on selected current issues that the country is

facing. Findings portray a rather dismal condition indicating a bleak future unless concreteactions are taken to fix these critical issues at the earliest with a broad based consensus.However, the findings can be summarized by issues probed as below:

Shahbag movement:Support for Shahbag movement was also not found very high as less than

one-fourths (23%) indicated their support for it, as against which 58% were non-supportive, and

17% were unaware of the movement, which is also noticeable. If we consider those who had

responded either for or against, then the figures would be 29% in support of the movement and

71% against.

Perception about current situation of the country and steps taken by the government:

Peoples perception about the current state of affairs does not look encouraging either as only ameager 13% felt that the current situation of the country is somewhat good/very good. On the

other hand 85% termed it as bad/very bad (35% termed as bad and 50% as very bad). The moredisquieting factor is that most respondents (79%) were of the opinion that the government is not

being able to take right steps in this critical situation. Only about 18% thought otherwise.

Tackling the situation created after declaring war crimes judgment:Governments ability totackle post war crimes verdict situation has also been put under question. Respondents were

asked if the government was able to tackle the situation as it occurred after declaring the war

crimes trial verdicts against Abdul Quader Molla and Dewar Hossain Saydee. An overwhelming

majority (81%) responded negatively and only 15% opined favorably.

Banning of JI:When asked if Jamaat-e-Islam should be banned from doing politics, nearly two-

thirds (65%) responded negatively and exactly one-fourth (25%) opined in favor of banning the

party, and the rest 10% either refused to answer or did not know. It may be worth noting herethat all the national public opinion surveys done so far depicted JI popularity to be hovering

between 3 and 4% only. This indicates that although its support base is quite low and has

remained more or less stagnant in percentage term, majority are against taking away JIs right todo politics. If we consider those who had responded either for or against the ban, then the figures

would be 28% in support of the ban and 78% against. Intriguingly, the figures are almost exactly

same as support for and against Shahbag movement.

Election time government: The country appears to have a united opinion about the electiontime government as a staggering majority of 90% respondents voicing support forcaretaker/neutral government for holding the next national election, and only 8% preferring a

political/party government. It may be worth noting here that in the two previous national public

opinion polls conducted in December 2011 and December 2012 election under caretaker

government was preferred by 73% and 76% respondents respectively. This indicates a 14

percentage point increase in favor of caretaker/neutral government within a span of only about 4

recent months. It is interesting to note that a large part of those who support Shahbag movement

and banning JI also support holding election under caretaker/neutral government (29% & 28% vs

8%)!


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Likelihood of army intervention:Perception with regard to possible army intervention underthe current situation of the country although appears fragmented, more people doubt its

likelihood. While 41% felt that any army intervention is unlikely, 35% thought otherwise and23% were unsure/did not know.

Political alliances:Majority appeared against alliances between BNP & JI and between AL and

JP. About half of the respondents (51%) felt that BNP should not have any alliance with JI, 36%

opined in favor and the rest either refused to answer or did not know. Similarly, more than half

(59%) voiced against maintaining any alliance with JP (Ershad) by Awami League, 26% were in

favor and the rest either refused or did not know.


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3. Detailed Findings:

3.1. Shahbag movement:Support for Shahbag movement was less than one-fourths as only 23% indicated their support forit, 58% were non-supportive, and 17% were unaware of the movement, which is also noticeable.Awareness of the movement was lower in rural areas and amongst females than their

counterparts. Age-wise no noticeable difference was observed.

Do you support Shahbagh's 'GonojagoronMoncho' movement?

National Average

Findings by Area Type, Gender and Age


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3.2. Perception about current situation of the country:

Peoples perception about the current state of affairs does not look encouraging as only a meager

13% felt that the situation is somewhat good/very good. On the other hand 85% termed it asbad/very bad (35% termed as bad and 50% as very bad). No noticeable difference was observedby area type, gender and age.

How is the current situation of the country in your opinion?

National Average



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3.3. Perception about steps taken by the government:

Perception about governments role appears quite disturbing as most of the respondents (79%)

were of the opinion that the government is not being able to take right steps in this criticalsituation. Only about 18% thought otherwise. Urban, female and younger respondents were

found more dissatisfied than their respective counterparts.

Is the government being able to take proper steps under the current situation?

National Average



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3.4. Ability of the government to tackle the post war crimes judgment situation:

Governments ability to tackle post war crimes verdict situation has also been put under

question. Respondents were asked if the government was able to tackle the situation as itoccurred after declaring the war crimes trial verdicts against Abdul Quader Molla and DewarHossain Saydee. An overwhelming majority (81%) responded negatively and only 15% opined

favorably. Females and younger respondents were found more critical than their respective

counterparts.

Is the government being able to tackle the situation after declaring judgment on war crimes?

National Average



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3.5. Banning of JI:

Majority of the countrys citizens seem to be against banning JI from doing politics. When asked

if Jamaat-e-Islam should be banned, nearly two-thirds (65%) responded negatively and exactlyone-fourth (25%) opined in favor of banning the party, and the rest 10% either refused to answeror did not know. It may, however, be worth noting here that all the national public opinion

surveys done so far depicted JI popularity to be hovering only between 3 and 4%. This indicates

that although its support base is quite low and has remained more or less stagnant in one

position, majority are against taking away JIs right to do politics. More of urban people and

males were in favor of banning JI than their respective counterparts. Age-wise no difference was

observed.

Should Jamat e Islami be banned?

National Average



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3.6. Election time government:

The country appears to have a united opinion about the election time government as a staggering

majority of the respondents (90%) voiced in favor caretaker/neutral government for holding thenext national election, and only 8% favoring a political/party government. It may be worth

noting here that in the two previous national public opinion polls conducted in December 2011and December 2012 election under caretaker government was favored by 73% and 76%respectively. This indicates a 14 percentage point increase in favor of caretaker/neutral

government within a span of only about 4 recent months. Intriguingly, rural, female and younger

respondents were found more inclined to caretaker/neutral government than their respective

counterparts.

Should the forthcoming national parliament election be held under party government or under

neutral/caretaker government?

National Average



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3.7. Likelihood of army intervention:

Perception with regard to possible army intervention under the current situation of the country

although appears fragmented, more people doubt its likelihood. While 41% felt that any armyintervention is unlikely, 35% thought otherwise and 23% were unsure or did not know. More ofurban, male and younger respondents perceived the likelihood of army intervention than their

respective counterparts.

Under the present circumstances is there any possibility of army intervention?

National Average



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3.8. Political alliances:

Majority appeared against alliances between BNP & JI and between AL and JP. About half of

the respondents (51%) felt that BNP should not have any alliance with JI, 36% opined in favorthe alliance and the rest either refused or did not know. Similarly, more than half (59%) voiced

against remaining in alliance with JP (Ershad) by Awami League, 26% were in favor and the resteither refused or did not know.

Should BNP maintain its alliance with Jamat e Islami?

National Average



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Should Awami League maintain its alliance with Jatiyo Party (Ershad)?

National Average



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Profile of Respondents

Division

Total Dhaka Chittagong Rajshahi Khulna Rangpur Barisal Syhlet

Occupation

Unskilled labor 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.7 5.5 4.8 1.7 10.2

Skilled labor 6.5 8.4 6.4 5.5 7.4 1.2 7.4 5.9

Small businessman 4.3 3.4 3.6 4.7 7.4 5.8 0.0 6.8

Shopkeeper (owner) 2.4 1.2 5.3 1.8 2.8 1.8 0.6 3.4

Businessman/industrialist but donot have any employee

3.2 2.7 4.7 1.0 2.8 3.0 4.0 5.9

Businessman/industrialist andemploy 1-9 persons

1.3 2.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0

Businessman/industrialistemploying more than 10+persons

0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Self employed(doctor/engineer/lawyer, etc.)

0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Clerk/salesman 2.2 2.0 4.6 0.8 0.6 2.4 2.3 1.5

Employees as supervisor 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 1.5

Junior Officer/executive 0.6 1.1 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.0

Mid level/Senior Officer/Executive 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Farmer 15.4 16.4 8.1 20.5 12.3 24.2 21.1 8.3

Teacher/Imam 1.7 1.9 1.4 2.6 0.9 0.3 4.0 1.0

Police/Traffic/Ansar 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.5

Village Doctor 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Peon/Postman 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5

Veterinary/Homeopathic 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Job(abroad) 0.3 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5

Unemployed 1.4 1.1 2.2 1.6 1.8 0.0 0.6 2.9

Professor 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0

Retired 2.5 2.9 2.0 1.8 2.8 1.2 2.9 4.9

Housewife 44.8 44.4 44.6 45.5 47.1 46.1 48.0 38.0

Student 6.0 4.7 8.0 4.9 4.6 7.6 5.7 8.3

Education

Illiterate 22.2 23.4 12.2 28.3 17.2 25.8 20.0 37.6

No Formal Education 3.7 4.2 0.7 0.5 10.2 7.0 0.6 2.9

Below class-V 11.6 10.2 12.2 8.8 11.4 14.8 23.4 7.3

Class V-Class X 36.5 37.6 43.2 35.3 40.3 26.4 26.9 32.2

SSC/HSC 20.0 18.7 25.9 18.4 16.3 20.9 22.3 14.1

Some college education/diplomabut not graduate

0.5 0.6 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0

Graduate or above 5.2 4.8 5.3 6.8 4.0 4.8 6.3 5.9

Graduate or above (professional) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0

AgeBelow 20 years 5.4 5.1 6.9 6.8 3.1 3.3 5.7 6.8

20-25 years 19.1 16.5 21.7 17.7 23.1 22.7 13.7 20.0

26-30 years 17.9 20.0 17.5 17.7 15.4 16.4 13.1 20.5

31-35 years 13.2 12.6 11.9 14.5 13.5 15.5 14.3 11.7

36-40 years 12.2 11.1 15.9 10.4 13.8 12.7 8.6 10.2

41-45 years 10.0 10.1 8.8 11.2 10.2 10.0 9.1 10.7

46-50 years 7.6 7.7 6.8 8.3 7.4 7.9 8.6 7.8

51-55 years 5.5 6.1 4.2 5.2 4.3 5.2 8.6 6.3

56-60 years 4.3 5.3 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.3 5.1 4.9

60+ years 4.8 5.7 2.9 4.4 5.8 3.0 13.1 1.0

Religion


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DivisionTotal

Dhaka Chittagong Rajshahi Khulna Rangpur Barisal Syhlet

Muslim 94.9 94.4 92.0 97.4 95.7 96.1 96.6 96.1

Hindu 4.9 5.6 7.1 2.6 4.3 3.9 2.9 3.9Christian 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0

Base - All Respondents 3000 990 590 385 325 330 175 205

Opinion Poll April 2013

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