Operator plans for the ultra-dense network
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Transcript of Operator plans for the ultra-dense network
C A R O L I N E G A B R I E L
R E S E A R C H D I R E C T O R
M A R A V E D I S - R E T H I N K
A P R I L 3 2 0 1 4
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Operator plans for the ultra-dense network
Agenda
© Rethink Technology Research 2014
The drivers for densification
More antennas or more base stations?
Macro layer – Massive MIMO
Small cell developments
Hyper-dense networks – pros and cons
Operator plans
Methodology
Top 40 cellcogroups
Number and profile of cell sites
Data requirements,
location, business model, spectrum,
regulatory
Cell sites required to be added or
upgraded
Equipment and software deployed 2013-2018 + capex
Demand driven forecastPrimary and secondary data + modelling for each operatorAdditional detailed survey Vendor input on shipments and expectationsForecasts by region, technology, equipment type, mode, spectrum etc
Drivers for density
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Massive increase in data traffic
Limited ability to cope with traditional models Spectral efficiency
Higher bandwidth
Combined with cost pressures
Critical to reduce radiated power – battery life, not coverage, limits usage
Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
$b
n
Capacity investments Data revenues
Many tools are needed
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
New technology % required capacity
increase Y1
% required TCO
decrease Y1
% required capacity
increase Y4
% required TCO
decrease Y4
LTE upgrade 17% 14% 4% 4%
Wi-Fi offload 16% 20% 9% 13%
Public access small cells 14% 18% 24% 23%
Deconstructed RAN (RRH
and distributed antennas)
11% 17% 13% 17%
New or refarmed spectrum
and carrier aggregation
17% 9% 16% 12%
SuperMacro/LTE-A eg
MIMO, CoMP
14% 10% 18% 15%
Adaptive networking/SON 11% 12% 16% 16%
Densification: two layers
Massive MIMO
Large antenna arrays
Advanced beamforming for coverage and mobility
Extend performance and life of macro BTS
Array gain + little interference
Small Cells
Low power, low cost highly localized access points
Capacity and coverage, less mobility
Higher cell density smaller path losses
6
More antennas or more cells?
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
MIMO antenna deploymentsSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
un
its
MIMO Small cells
OR
?
Macro layer trends
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
One architecture is not enough – MIMO and small cells need each other
Distributed architectures Virtualization
C-RAN Phantom Cell
SuperMacro Massive MIMO+ CA 3D beamforming CoMP
Macro layer densifies too, and works with small cell layer eICIC MSA
Some operators are ‘macro-first’, but many advances look forward to multilayer
Enter the HetSNet
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
un
its
C-RAN Distributed RAN Traditional Super Macro Small cells
Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growthSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
More cells in all layers
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Same x2 x4 x10
% o
f r
es
po
nd
en
ts
Macro Small MIMO
Increase in sites and antennasSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
Towards hyper-density
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Separate layer of small cells Spectral/spatial reuse Capacity/coverage Location awareness Wi-Fi integration
Higher power first? How dense?
Qualcomm Nascar
Known benefits – but do they scale?
Scaling challenges Cost Backhaul Planning burden Interference
New flexibility required
Enablers of density
Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Next gen SON True plug and play
Next gen interference management, eICIC
Flexible cells Dynamic coordination pCell Cognitive radio Ad hoc viral networks Opportunistic cells
Multiflow Indoor out, 4G homespots WiFi and WiGig Partners eg utilities
Harnessing new spectrum
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Importance of TDD
Asymmetry
Channel reciprocity
Underused
High bands – MIMO and small cells
Wi-Fi, WiGig
LTE-U?
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
un
its
TDD FDD
LTE small cell metrocell growthSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
Barriers
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Diminishing returns?
Chaotic capacity
Network becomes ‘unplanned’ at one end, massive management challenges at the other Viral not optimal
Plug and play vs fully flexible
Fewer cells under operator control eghomespots
BSS/OSS/analytics
Traditional concerns Cost factors
Backhaul
Scalability
Devices
Operator priorities
Maravedis-Rethink 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Super Macro
Metrocells
Integrated WiFi
Virtualized core
Simple' LTE
Premier network priority (% of respondents)Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services
The holistic network
© Maravedis-Rethink 2014
Increase in cells at all layers
Integration with C-RAN, DAS etc
Interworking
Towards HetSNetand the holistic network
‘5G’?
The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS
Questions?
© Rethink Technology Research 2011
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