Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing...
Transcript of Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing...
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Operational Oceanography Forecasting System in Developing
Countries
Hui Wang
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center ,
State Oceanic Administration, China
www.godae-oceanview.org
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Outline
• Background
• Operational systems in developing countries
• Discussion
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Background
• Developing countries are more vulnerable to ocean hazards due to lack of knowledge of adjacent marginal and coastal seas, and moreover, capability in operational oceanography.
• In recent years some of the larger (richer) developing countries such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa have started building their own operational ocean forecasting systems in response to resilient economic growth.
• Overall, the field of operational oceanography in developing countries is either growing at a high rate, grappling to become established, or in most cases does not exist at all.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Why developing countries need their own OOFS?
• Have relatively more knowledge of their adjacent sea.
• In addition to the field observation network in the adjacent seas of developing countries, some developing countries, e.g. China, Brazil and India, have the remote sensing ability with global coverage.
• Own security consideration
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
China India Indonesia South Africa Kenya Negria Brazil Chile
Forum Themes
1. Operational Oceanography Forecasting
2. Ocean Research and Modeling
3. Ocean Observations and Data Analysis
4. Ocean data assimilation
48 scientists and students from 8 countries participated in the forum.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
OceanSAfrica-South Africa an integrated capability for marine observations and forecasting
• The OceanSAfrica is a multi-institutional initiative that Aims to develop operational oceanography activities in South Africa and, eventually, throughout the rest of Africa.
• This goal was conceived at the first ACCESS OO meeting held in Cape Town in July 2009.
• It will now enter a second phase designed to build and showcase substantial national, regional and African capabilities as explicit components of international marine operational programmes.
• Its operational vision: “Through a combination of modelling and observations we will deliver regular and systematic information on the state of the ocean that is of known quality and accuracy on open ocean to shelf-scales.”
• South Africa is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models. However, it has not achieve the phase of offering formal operational forecasts.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
an integrated capability for marine observations and forecasting
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
INDOFOS-India
• In 2010, INCOIS setup the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS) based on an Indian Ocean setup of ROMS.
• In 2011, the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System developed by NCEP, USA was also ported to INCOIS.
• During 2012-2017, INCOIS is planning to set up a High resolution Operational Ocean analysis and Forecast System (HOOFS).
• India offer formal operational forecasts, and moreover, has a formal, coherent and funded program/project to establish operational oceanography. It is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
REMO-Brazil
• Oceanographic Modeling and Observation Network (Portuguese acronym REMO) main goal is to undertake research and technological development in physical and operational oceanography with focus on the South Atlantic Ocean and regions along the Brazilian coast using assimilative models and observational data.
• REMO started in 2008 and in 2011 it has joined the GODAE Oceanview. The project is now renewed for a 3-year period (2012-2015).
• Operational phase for the fixed regional grids along the Brazilian coast: i) E (2013), ii) S-SE (2014) and iii) N-NE (2014)
• Brazil is strong in ocean modeling, and has operational ocean buoy networks in place, and are currently assimilating observation data into numerical models. It is presently moving into a pre-operational mode. However, Brazil does not have a formal, coherent and funded program/project to establish operational oceanography.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
METAREA V - Brazilian responsibility (WMO-
IOC/JCOMM) for marine forecasts and
warnings:
• N/NE grid – 1/24o
637 x 435 grid points
(56oW - 30oW; 10oN - 8oS)
32 Sigma levels
• E grid – 1/36o
289 x 409 grid points
(40oW - 32oW; 8oS - 19oS)
32 Sigma levels
• S/SE grid – 1/24o
502 x 564 grid points
(53.3oW - 32.4oW; 12.3oS - 33.7oS)
32 Sigma levels
• HYCOM – 1/12º and 1/24o
METAREA-V and S/SE grid
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
NMEFC-China
• NMEFC, Chinese national center for ocean forecasting
• Affiliated with the State Oceanic Administration that receives financial support from the Chinese government
• 358 scientists and forecasters
• Authorized by the State Council Academic Degrees Committee of Physical Oceanography and Meteorology to grant Master’s degrees
• Leading authority that specializes in marine environmental and disaster forecasting and warning systems, scientific research, and consulting services
• Actively engaged in partnerships with international scientists and agencies
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) issues marine
hazards and environmental forecast products, including storm surge, huge wave,
sea Ice, El-Nino, tsunami , sea temperature, current, salinity, oil spill, green tide,
search and rescue…
Storm surge Tsunami Sea Ice
Red tide Oil spill Current
Tourist Destination
Seasonal ENSO forecast
Forecasting products
Warnings
Storm surge Wave
Tsunami
Sea ice
Environmental Forecast
SST Current Red tide
Green tide ENSO
&Climate
Marine weather Marine emergency
Leakage Search and
rescue Oil spill
... ...
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
1. Global Ocean
2. India Ocean
3. North West Pacific
4. East China Sea
5. South China Sea
6. Polar regions
-CGOFS
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 11/20/2013
Chinese Global operational Oceanography Forecasting System (CGOFS)
• Purpose
– Provide ocean wave, temperature, salinity and currents
from global to regional ocean
• Provides improvements in wave and current predictions
– Incorporates the astronomical tides and river inflows
– data assimilation capabilities (Argo , altimetry, in-situ
data……)
• Enables future development
– Improved high resolution of bays, inlets, and barrier
islands
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Schematic Diagram of CGOFS
Verification
preproce
ss
Data
Assimilat
ion
Regional Atmospheric
model-WRF
OGCM MOM4 、ROMS
NWW、SWAN…
Product
coupled
Atmospheric
forcing
NCEP/GFS Open boundary
observa
tions
improvement Network Specific users
figures、
forecast、data
Scientific decision-making
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
3D Visualization by WebGIS
Sea Surface Wind
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Sea Surface Wind
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Global Indian Ocean Northwest Pacific East/South China Seas
Res. 1°/3 1°/6 1°/10 1°/30
Model NWW3 SWAN
Wind forcing NCEP/GFS WRF
DA scheme OI
DA data HY-2 significant wave height
Products significant wave height,period,direction
Time 120hr
Release To: website & specific users with data and fiugres
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Global Indian Ocean Northwestern
Pacific East/South China Sea
Resolution 1/4°, 50 L 1/12°, 20L 1/20°, 22L 1/30°, 30L/36L
OGCM MOM4 ROMS
Assimilation scheme
3DVar EnOI
Data assimilated
RTGSST,SSH, Argo T/S
MGDSST SSH
MGDSST SSH
MGDSST,SSH,Argo T/S
Product temperature、current (surface,20m,50m,100m,200m,500m,1000m,profiles)
Forecast range
120hr
Ocean Circulation Model Configurations
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
CGOFS Products
Global Sea Surface Temperature Global Sea Surface Current
Sea Surface Temperature Salinity at 400m Sea Surface Current
(2) Indian Ocean
(1) Global Ocean
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
CGOFS Products
(3) Northwestern Pacific
(4) East China Sea (5) South China Sea
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Surface Current Surface Temperature
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Resolution : 18km
Model: MITgcm coupled
Initialization::AMSR2 ( SSMIS)
Atmosphere Forcing: GFS
DA scheme: Nudging
Products: concentration/thickness/velocity
Time : 120h
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Product showcase
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Services
Escort mission in the Gulf of Arden
Radioactive Monitoring
Antarctic Support
Submersible Jiaolong
Arctic support
Zhongshan Station Great Wall Station
Fishery fields
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
1
2 3
4
6 5 5
7
1、West Pacific(Tuna) 2、Northwest Pacific 3、Mid-East Pacific(Tuna) 4、Mid-West Pacific(Tuna) 5、Southwest Atlantic 6、Pacific(Bamboo CE trawl)
7、Indian Ocean(Tuna)
Tidal Current
Temperature Tidal Current
Current
Surface Wind 500hPa Dynamic height Tidal Current
Salinity
Global 7 Fisheries Forecasts
Application (1) — Global
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Global Coastal Tourist Destinations Forecasts
Application (1) — Global
Forecasts for Travel Channel (20130521)
City Wave Temperature City Wave Temperature
Da Lian Slight 10.7 Maldives Moderate 29.0
Vladivostok Slight 5.9 Cape Town Moderate 16.2
Jeju Slight 17.7 Rio de Janeiro Moderate 24.2
Tokyo Slight 18.4 Lisbon Moderate 17.9
Shanghai Slight 19.1 Barcelona Slight 16.6
Keelung Slight 24.9 Bergen Rough 8.3
San Ya Slight 28.8 Hamburger Very Rough 11.2
Hong Kong Slight 25.8 San Francisco Rough 11.6
Bangkok Slight 31.0 New York Slight 13.0
Singapore Slight 30.9 Sydney Slight 22.4
Dubai Slight 27.7 Hawaii Moderate 25.8
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Submersible Jiaolong Exploration in Pacific
Application (1) — Global
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
•Update frequency: once per day
•Product: Temperature,
Current,
Significant wave height,
Wave direction
•Forecast range : 72hours
Escort Mission in the Strait of Malacca
Escort Mission in the Gulf of Aden
Application (2) — Indian Ocean
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
X10
140 145 150 155 160 165 170 17535
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175-5000
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
Tracer trajectory 3D-Lagrangrian drifter trajectory
Nuclear contaminant transport
from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant
Application (3) —Northwestern Pacific
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Application (3) —Northwestern Pacific
Ecological forecasts
Surface Chlorophyll-a Feb, 2009 Surface Nitrate Feb, 2009
Surface Silicate Feb, 2009
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 33
pCO2 ---- ecological forecast experiment (under construction)
Application (3) —Northwestern Pacific
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 34
Application (4/5) — East/South China Sea
Application on Emergency cases — Search and Rescue
Forecasts for trajectory of vessels
lost motion and drowning person
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Forecas for SAR activities
near Xisha Islands during typhoon “Butterfly(1321#)”(2013)
Time: 2013.9.29. 5 ships 88 persons 3 ships sinking 14 lives died ,26 saved,48 missing
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 36
June 2011, Oil Spill in Bohai Bay July 2010, Explosion in Dalian Xingang
Factory explosion
Liaoning
Dalian Bay
Application (4/5) — East/South China Sea
Application on Emergency cases — Oil Spill
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Polluted Area: 5500 km2
Affected coast lines: Tangshan, Qinhuangdao etc.
Comparison with satellite results
Conocophillips Oil 19-3 platform leak incident(2011)
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013 38
Product: wind field, wave
Application (4/5) — East/South China Sea
National Marine environmental Forecasting and Service System for Fisheries security
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
• Provide forecasting service since the first
cruise to Antactic in 1984 and all the 28
cruises ever since, as well as the 4 cruises to
Arctic.
• Real time monitor of atmosphere, sea ice
and environment during the last two years
• Developed the first sea ice numerical
forecasting system for polar regions
Great Wall Station Zhongshan Station
Arctic Sea ice Antarctic Sea ice
Application (6) — Arctic and Antarctic Seas
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Future Plan
• Improve global forecasting system
• Downscale from global ocean to regional and coastal systems
• Improve data assimilation schemes
• Seasonal forecast
• Marine ecosystem forecasting systems
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Discussion
Areas which require attention in developing countries:
• internal and regional optimization of resources
• access to high performance computing
• improved capacity in data assimilation
• quality assurance of databases with high speed open access
• communal identification of existing and new efforts, projects and collaboration.
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Collaboration and development can be strengthened by joint
• deployment of instrumentation such as XBTs and Argo floats
• research field projects especially in those regions that are not regularly visited by international research vessels
• joint funding application
• hosting of a summer school and promotion of a student-scientist-technician exchange program
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
• The community of developing countries should be formally organized. It was agreed in the 12th CAS-TWAS-WMO Forum that the Forum for Operational Oceanography in Developing Countries (OODC) was proposed and accepted as an interim name. The participants clearly articulated that the forum must be driven by scientific and technical objectives and as far as possible avoid political interventions.
• The OODC should be formally linked to GODAE OceanView as a task team (TT) to ensure international recognition and state of the art information sharing. Such formality should assist coordination in this community and fund raising for meetings.
A Proposal
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Thanks for Your Attention
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
1
2 3
4
6 5 5
7
Tidal Current
Temperature Tidal Current
Current
Surface Wind 500hPa Dynamic height Tidal Current
Salinity
Global 7 Fisheries Fields
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Global Coastal Tourist Destinations Forecasts
Forecasts for Travel Channel (20130521)
City Wave Temperature City Wave Temperature
Da Lian Slight 10.7 Maldives Moderate 29.0
Vladivostok Slight 5.9 Cape Town Moderate 16.2
Jeju Slight 17.7 Rio de Janeiro Moderate 24.2
Tokyo Slight 18.4 Lisbon Moderate 17.9
Shanghai Slight 19.1 Barcelona Slight 16.6
Keelung Slight 24.9 Bergen Rough 8.3
San Ya Slight 28.8 Hamburger Very Rough 11.2
Hong Kong Slight 25.8 San Francisco Rough 11.6
Bangkok Slight 31.0 New York Slight 13.0
Singapore Slight 30.9 Sydney Slight 22.4
Dubai Slight 27.7 Hawaii Moderate 25.8
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Shipping routes wave forecasts
•Update frequency: once per day
•Product: Significant wave height,
Wave direction
•Forecast range : 72hours
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Submersible “Jiaolong” Exploration
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
•Update frequency: once per day
•Product: Temperature,
Current,
Significant wave height,
Wave direction
•Forecast range : 72hours
Escort Mission in the Strait of Malacca
Escort Mission in the Gulf of Aden
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
X10
140 145 150 155 160 165 170 17535
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175-5000
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
Tracer trajectory 3D-Lagrangrian drifter trajectory
Nuclear contaminant transport
from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
51
Search and Rescue
Forecasts for trajectory of vessels
lost motion and drowning person
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
• Provide forecasting service since the first cruise to Antactic in 1984 and all the 28 cruises ever since, as well as the 4 cruises to Arctic.
• Real time monitor of atmosphere, sea ice and environment during the last two years
• Developed the first sea ice numerical forecasting system for polar regions
Great Wall Station Zhongshan Station Arctic and Antarctic
Regions
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
Global Indian ocean Northwest Pacific East/South China Seas
Res. 1°/4,50 L 1°/12,20L 1°/20,22L 1°/30,30(36) L
Model MOM4 ROMSv3.5
Wind forcing
GFS/CGOFS-wind NMEFC-WRF
DA scheme 3DVar EnOI
DA data RTGSST,SSH,
Argo T/S
MGDSST
SSH
MGDSST
SSH
MGDSST,SSH,Argo
T/S
Products Temperature, Salinity、current (surface,20m,50m,100m,200m,500m &
1000m,sections)
Time 120hr
Release To:website, specific users, decision making
As: Data & figures
GODAE OceanView Symposium, Hilton Baltimore, 4-6 November 2013
CGOFS-Global wave
Resolution:
1/3o×1/3o
Area:
0-360o,78oS-78oN
Model:
NWW3
Data Assimilation:
OI
Products:
Significant wave height、period、direction
Figures & data
Time:
120hr
Atmosphere Forcing
GFS