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![Page 1: Operational Analysis Support to the RAF During Op TELIC Presentation to the Defence Study Group Dstl Farnborough 18 Nov 04.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062712/56649cae5503460f94971622/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Operational AnalysisOperational AnalysisSupport to the RAF DuringSupport to the RAF DuringOp TELICOp TELIC
Operational AnalysisOperational AnalysisSupport to the RAF DuringSupport to the RAF DuringOp TELICOp TELIC
Presentation to the Presentation to the Defence Study GroupDefence Study Group
Dstl Farnborough 18 Nov 04Dstl Farnborough 18 Nov 04
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Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare CentreOperational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element
Paul StoddartPaul StoddartScientific Advisor OperationsScientific Advisor Operations
RAF WaddingtonRAF Waddington
18 Nov 0418 Nov 04
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Air Warfare Centre
Air Warfare Centre
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[dstl]
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OA in support
of air
operations
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This presentation will be at This presentation will be at
UNCLASSIFIED
CLASSIFICATION CLASSIFICATION
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Commandant AWC
Strike Command
Air Warfare CentreAir Warfare Centre
DevelopmentOperations
Operational Analysis Element (OAE)
Ops Support
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AWC MissionAWC MissionAWC MissionAWC Mission
“To Provide TimelyIntegrated Mission Support
at the Operational, Tactical
and Technical Levels of Warfare.”
“To Provide TimelyIntegrated Mission Support
at the Operational, Tactical
and Technical Levels of Warfare.”
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Operational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element
Provide scientific and technical expertise Provide scientific and technical expertise to AWC… to AWC…
for essential and timely mission support to for essential and timely mission support to the front line… the front line…
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Operational Analysis ElementOperational Analysis Element
for essential and for essential and timelytimely mission support to mission support to the front line… the front line…
An 80% solution now is better than the An 80% solution now is better than the 100% solution tomorrow100% solution tomorrow
Timescales can be very shortTimescales can be very short
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OA DeploymentsOA Deployments
Jan 91 - Operation GRANBY Jan 91 - Operation GRANBY
Jun 95 - Op DELIBERATE FORCEJun 95 - Op DELIBERATE FORCE
Mar 99 - Operation ALLIED FORCEMar 99 - Operation ALLIED FORCE
Feb 03 - Op TELIC / IRAQI FREEDOMFeb 03 - Op TELIC / IRAQI FREEDOM
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OAE on Op TELICOAE on Op TELIC
10 analysts deployed to theatre10 analysts deployed to theatre One to National Component HQOne to National Component HQ One to UK Air Component HQOne to UK Air Component HQ 2 to Coalition Air Component HQ2 to Coalition Air Component HQ 6 to deployed attack squadrons (3 bases)6 to deployed attack squadrons (3 bases)
Home team for reachback supportHome team for reachback support
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OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC
National Component HQNational Component HQ One OAE analyst (+ other analysts)One OAE analyst (+ other analysts) Collateral damage estimation Collateral damage estimation Advice to Targets officeAdvice to Targets office Advice on weapon effects to RE for repairAdvice on weapon effects to RE for repair Generic wpns advice to UK NCHQ staffGeneric wpns advice to UK NCHQ staff
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OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC
UK Air Component HQUK Air Component HQOne OAE analystOne OAE analyst Scientific adviser to UK Air Component CdrScientific adviser to UK Air Component Cdr Questions: varied, operational & tacticalQuestions: varied, operational & tactical
Coalition counter-IADS campaignCoalition counter-IADS campaign Urban Close Air SupportUrban Close Air Support
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OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC
Coalition Air HQCoalition Air HQ 2 OAE analysts ‘embedded’ (10+ US staff)2 OAE analysts ‘embedded’ (10+ US staff) Part of Coalition OA Team (principally US)Part of Coalition OA Team (principally US) Campaign AssessmentCampaign Assessment Data compilation (major task)Data compilation (major task)
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OAE Tasks in Op TELICOAE Tasks in Op TELIC
Deployed UK attack squadronsDeployed UK attack squadrons 5 (later 6) OAE analysts to 3 bases5 (later 6) OAE analysts to 3 bases No analysts left for early changeoverNo analysts left for early changeover Advice: weapon and system performanceAdvice: weapon and system performance Data collection/compilation Data collection/compilation IT supportIT support
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Support to UK Attack SqnsSupport to UK Attack Sqns
Weapon-system performanceWeapon-system performance Laser guided bomb ballisticsLaser guided bomb ballistics Weapon delivery modesWeapon delivery modes Weapon to target matching Weapon to target matching Laser designator/seeker performanceLaser designator/seeker performance
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Support to UK Attack SqnsSupport to UK Attack Sqns
Database/tool developmentDatabase/tool development Reporting Program: Reporting Program: Input data onceInput data once
3 x reports output3 x reports output Mission; LGB, RAF HistoricalMission; LGB, RAF Historical
Air Tasking Order parserAir Tasking Order parser Auto break out of sqn missionsAuto break out of sqn missions
Killbox mappingKillbox mapping Mapped no-strike and restricted strike targets in Mapped no-strike and restricted strike targets in
specified killboxspecified killbox
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Reachback & Support to AWCReachback & Support to AWC
ReachbackReachback From deployed HQs and Sqns to AWC-From deployed HQs and Sqns to AWC-
based analystsbased analystsStorm Shadow performanceStorm Shadow performanceWeapon applicationsWeapon applications
OAE support to AWCOAE support to AWC Capability measure: Iraqi military systemsCapability measure: Iraqi military systems
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Post Conflict AnalysisPost Conflict Analysis
CWEATCWEATCombined Weapons Effect Assessment TeamCombined Weapons Effect Assessment Team In country assessment: ‘boots on the ground’In country assessment: ‘boots on the ground’ Target inspectionTarget inspection Damage assessmentDamage assessment Weapon suitabilityWeapon suitability
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We like bridges but...We like bridges but...
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...success can be elusive...success can be elusive
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LessonsLessons
OA/scientific/IT support to HQs and OA/scientific/IT support to HQs and especially sqns is definitely valued by especially sqns is definitely valued by the military customerthe military customer
Especially to have it ‘on location’Especially to have it ‘on location’
Invited on Afghanistan holiday (Harrier)Invited on Afghanistan holiday (Harrier)
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LessonsLessons
GeneralGeneral Training and preparation of analystsTraining and preparation of analysts
Risk assessment: difficult for war zonesRisk assessment: difficult for war zones MedicalMedical Military training/kit - availabilityMilitary training/kit - availability Tools, Techniques, ModelsTools, Techniques, Models: : usage currencyusage currency
Communications for reachbackCommunications for reachback Standard data collection methods/formatsStandard data collection methods/formats Must understand operational contextMust understand operational context
80% answer now >> 100% tomorrow80% answer now >> 100% tomorrow
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Lessons contdLessons contd
Locate analysts with customersLocate analysts with customers ie with ie with operatorsoperators at HQs and operating bases at HQs and operating bases
Be active: get out and speak to peopleBe active: get out and speak to people Explain what OA can and cannot achieveExplain what OA can and cannot achieve Get to know them before op deploymentGet to know them before op deployment
Develop relationship before the op startsDevelop relationship before the op starts Get to know people personallyGet to know people personally
Avoid (most) non-OA tasksAvoid (most) non-OA tasks be helpful but do not be an admin drudgebe helpful but do not be an admin drudge
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Lessons contdLessons contd
Operational timescales can be very shortOperational timescales can be very short < one hour< one hour
Be accurate, be clear, be rightBe accurate, be clear, be right OA output must be useful to the military OA output must be useful to the military
customercustomer Being correct is not enough; be relevantBeing correct is not enough; be relevant Avoid lengthy, academic studies that have no Avoid lengthy, academic studies that have no
conclusionconclusion ““Further studies are necessaryFurther studies are necessary””
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ContextContext
To Achieve 90% PTo Achieve 90% Pkk on a 60’x100’ Target on a 60’x100’ Target
(dumb bombs)(dumb bombs) WWII (B-17)WWII (B-17): : 9,070 9,070
BombsBombs Korea/Vietnam (F-84/F-105)Korea/Vietnam (F-84/F-105):: 176 Bombs 176 Bombs Desert Storm (F-16):Desert Storm (F-16): 30 30
BombsBombs Desert Storm (F-117)Desert Storm (F-117):: 1 LGB 1 LGB
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Op TELICOp TELIC
Op GRANBY Op GRANBY 81% dumb weapons81% dumb weapons 19% guided weapons19% guided weapons
Op TELICOp TELIC 16% dumb weapons16% dumb weapons 84% guided weapons84% guided weapons
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Op TELIC OA ResultsOp TELIC OA Results
Op TELIC Air domain dataOp TELIC Air domain data > 4 Gb of data> 4 Gb of data (Secret)(Secret) > 10,000 files> 10,000 files > 1,000 images & weapon system videos> 1,000 images & weapon system videos Summarised, analysed and reported: Summarised, analysed and reported:
weapon numbersweapon numbers hit rates hit rates sortie rates (abort numbers and types) sortie rates (abort numbers and types)
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Bombing TonnageBombing Tonnage
War Tonnage Length Tons/month
WW2 2,150,000 45 months 47,778
Korea 454,000 37 months 12,270
SEA 6,162,000 140 months 44,014
Gulf 91 60,624 1.5 months 40,416
Gulf 03 29,199 wpns 1.0 month <<40,000
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Numbers - OIFNumbers - OIF
Coalition combat ac ~786 Coalition combat ac ~786 20,733 sorties20,733 sorties19,948 guided munitions launched19,948 guided munitions launched9,251 unguided munitions launched9,251 unguided munitions launchedLeaflets Dropped 31,800,000Leaflets Dropped 31,800,000
120,454 rolls of toilet paper120,454 rolls of toilet paper
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So What?So What?
What do all the numbers mean? What do all the numbers mean?
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Iraq - Op IRAQI FREEDOMIraq - Op IRAQI FREEDOM
Combat Assessment plan initiated earlyCombat Assessment plan initiated early Detailed planDetailed plan
αα Operational ObjectivesOperational Objectives
4 4 αα Tactical ObjectivesTactical Objectives
15 15 αα Tactical TasksTactical Tasks 3-53-5 MoEs per Tactical TaskMoEs per Tactical Task Total data requirement = HUGE !Total data requirement = HUGE !
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LessonsLessons
Campaign Assessment (CA)Campaign Assessment (CA) Very challenging: short, high intensity warVery challenging: short, high intensity war Data and analysis ‘hungry’Data and analysis ‘hungry’ How to measure ‘effect’ How to measure ‘effect’
True EBO or kinetic result: crater counting?True EBO or kinetic result: crater counting? CA: early input to planning essentialCA: early input to planning essential
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LessonsLessons
Beware the temptation of PowerpointBeware the temptation of PowerpointGlossy slides are not a substitute for Glossy slides are not a substitute for
analysis and adviceanalysis and advice In Op IRAQI FREEDOM, the Coalition In Op IRAQI FREEDOM, the Coalition
had Powerpoint supremacyhad Powerpoint supremacyAir Component Cdr: 200-slide briefings!Air Component Cdr: 200-slide briefings!
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Thoughts for the futureThoughts for the future
Campaign/Operation AssessmentCampaign/Operation Assessment How well am I doing?How well am I doing?
Measures of EffectivenessMeasures of Effectiveness How do I know when I have succeeded?How do I know when I have succeeded?
Success Indicators Success Indicators
Measure Measure effecteffect and and progressprogress Effort does Effort does notnot equal progress equal progress
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ConclusionsConclusions
OA support to ops worksOA support to ops works but must be quick and relevantbut must be quick and relevant
Technical & tactical areas well coveredTechnical & tactical areas well coveredCampaign Assessment: a capability gapCampaign Assessment: a capability gap
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QUESTIONSQUESTIONS