open questions and the impact of future facilitiesgalpatagonia/GALPAT_PRESENTATIONS/... · Madau &...
Transcript of open questions and the impact of future facilitiesgalpatagonia/GALPAT_PRESENTATIONS/... · Madau &...
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GarthIllingworthUCSC
firstgalaxies.org
openquestionsandtheimpactoffuturefacilities
DistantGalaxiesfromtheFarSouth
11-15December2017Bariloche Argentina
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i – ourupcomingsetofremarkablenewfacilities
ii-- somethoughtsreearlygalaxiesandJWST
iii– opportunitiesandchallengesforthelonger-termfuture
gdi
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ALMA
gdi
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ALMA[CII]157.74𝜇mredshiftsandvelocitystructure(rotation?)intwoz~6.8galaxies
velocitystructure(rotation?)intwogalaxies
consistent with rotation but could bemorecomplex (merging?;gas flows?)
modelscomparedtodata
Smit+2017ALMAwillplayakeyroleinunderstandingthegasflows,the
velocitystructure,starformationanddustintheearliestgalaxies
gdiSmit+2017
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ELT
gdi
majorannouncementbyESOlastweekabouttheEuropean39mExtremelyLargeTelescope(ELT)
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ESOELTannouncementrefullmirror
plussparesand2024firstlight
gdi
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EuclidLSSTWFIRST
gdi
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surveysforhigh-zstudiesandcosmicvariance
Madau &Dickinson2014
clearlyneedtoimagelargerareas!
theyellowregionsareCANDELS&thetinyboxinGOODS-SistheHUDF…..
surveyregionssuperimposedonasimulationshowinggalaxydistributionatz~2
largefluctuationsfromclustering
gdi
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surveysforhigh-zstudiesandcosmicvariance
needtoimagelargerareas!
theyellowregionsareCANDELS&thetinyboxinGOODS-SistheHUDF
wide-areasurveys>>HubbleorJWST
WFIRSTEuclid
LSST
gdi
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threeupcomingmajorwide-fieldprojects
currentschedules
Euclid– launch2020/21✔LSST– surveystart2022✔WFIRST– launch2025/26?
notethatLSSTisoptical(<~1µm),whileEuclidandWFIRSTalsohavenear-IRcapability(<~2µm)
WFIRSTbeingre-baselined/descoped asaresultofWFIRSTIndependentExternalTechnical/Management/CostReview (WIETR)reportthatwasreleasedinNovember
goalistohaveanewbaselinefortheWFIRSTmissionbyJanuaryandthenworktowardsapprovalforthetransitiontoPhaseB(KDP-B)earlyin2018 gdi
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JWST
gdi
quickupdateforthosewhodidseeMattGreenhouse’sexcellent,andverycomprehensive,publictalkonJWST
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JWSTisthe“what’snext”fortheearliestgalaxies
JWST– full-sizemodelat“SouthbySouthwest”gettingasensefortherealsizeofJWST!
notepeople
JWSTlaunchesspring2018 gdi
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☛ intotheJWSTera☚
Sunshield
OTIS
gdigdisomephotosfromrecentscienceteamupdates
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JWSTOTISCVtestatJSC
movingOTISinthroughthechamberAdoorandOTISinthechamber
gdi
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JWSTspacecraftassemblyin
thecleanroomatNGAS
thespacecraftplussunshieldpalletsplustheOTISsimulator
thisisonebigtelescope…
gdi
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JWSTsunshieldin
thecleanroomatNGAS
foldinguptheflightsunshield(oneside)afterdeploymenttest
flightsunshieldfullydeployed(lateOct2017)
JWSTisverylarge!
gdi
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JWSTlaunchmovedtospring2019
• 2010– ICRPestimatedlaunchin2016for$6Btotal– andsaidthatasubstantialchangetoboththelaunchscheduleandthefundinglevelwasneeded(andthatNASAneededtodoathoroughreplan to80%confidence)
• 2011– Newbudgetderived– budgetandschedulewassetthroughajointcost/schedulestudy(JointConfidenceLevelJCL)witha80%goal– newlaunchwasOct2018andcost$8B
• 2011– CongresskilledJWST;backagainafter~4monthsofeffortbutascarytime…• 2011/12– Congresslegislatedan$8Bbudgetcapthroughconstruction• 2011/12– NASAadded$0.875Bforfiveyearsofops:lifecyclecost(LCC)total$8.875B
• 2011-2017– JWSThaskepttoscheduleandbudgetover6years,andremainswithinbudget– remarkableachievementforsuchacomplexproject
background2010– IndependentComprehensiveReviewPanel(ICRP)formed
torespondtobudgetandschedulecrisisintheProject
gdi
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JWSTlaunchmovedtospring2019
• BepiColombo haslimitedlaunchwindowsandOct2018isanoptimalwindow• issueswithpropulsionsystemonspacecraftthatrequiredrework
(pressuretransducerreworkandthennewthrustervalvesneeded)• integrationandtestactivities(I&T)onthesunshieldandspacecraftaretaking
longerthanoriginallyplanned
http://firstgalaxies.org/gdi_jstac_note.html
JWSTwillnowlaunchintheApril-June2019timeframe
announcementinlateSeptemberrenewlaunchschedulecamefromconsiderationoverthelastyearofanumberoffactorsthat
increasinglysuggestedthatOct2018wasnotoptimal
gdi
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JWSTandgalaxiesatz>8– first~500Millionyears
gdi
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evolutionofstellarmassandstarformation
evolutionoftheglobalstellarmassdensityover13billionyears
evolutionofthecosmicstarformationratedensityover13billionyears
Madau &Dickinson2014
onlyafewmeasurementsatz>6
gdi
NOW NOW
FirstGyr FirstGyr
notethatatz~8– first0.1%ofstellarmassbuild-up
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cosmicstarformationoveralltime
relativerateofstarformation
BigBangNow
revealingthestarformationratedensityover96%oftime
linearfigurecredit:PascalOesch gdi
diversitycomplexityevolutiontransition
stabilitycharacterizationarchaeology
dramaticgrowthextremeSF
z~2
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FrontierFields
6clusters+6parallelfields
840orbitsoftrulyremarkableACSandWFC3/IRdata
1000hoursofSpitzerIRAC
longhistoryofgalaxyclusterimagingprogramswithHST:
ACSGTOTeamCLASHHFF+others
usingtheFrontierFields(HFF)todeterminefaintluminosityfunctions– theHFFisaremarkabledataset–
thankstoMattMountain
gdi
HFF
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thechallengesofluminosityfunctionsusinglensingclusters(i)modeluncertaintiesathighmagnifications
gdi
differentmodelsyieldsubstantiallydifferentresultsathighmagnification
stronglylensingclustersprovidetheopportunitytogomuchfainterthandeepfields,buthowfaintcanwereliablypush?
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limitforreliableLFsfromtheHFF
theuncertainty“blowsup”fainterthan-14.5
theerrorsintheLFbecomesolargeastomakeestimatesoftheLFfromtheHFFnotreallyusefulbelowMUV,AB ~-14.5
systematicsarethelimitingfactor
seealsoHakimAtek+2017WedtalkatBariloche gdi
simulations:
(HubbleFrontierFields)
Bouwens+2017b
HFF
XDFlimit
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limitforreliableLFsfromtheHFF
theuncertainty“blowsup”fainterthan-14.5
theerrorsintheLFbecomesolargeastomakeestimatesoftheLFfromtheHFFnotreallyusefulbelowMUV,AB ~-14.5
systematicsarethelimitingfactor
seealsoHakimAtek+2017WedtalkatBariloche gdi
simulations:
(HubbleFrontierFields)
Bouwens+2017b
HFF
XDFlimit
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limitforreliableLFsfromtheHFF
theuncertainty“blowsup”fainterthan-14.5
theerrorsintheLFbecomesolargeastomakeestimatesoftheLFfromtheHFFnotreallyusefulbelowMUV,AB ~-14.5
systematicsarethelimitingfactor
seealsoHakimAtek+2017WedtalkatBariloche gdi
simulations:
(HubbleFrontierFields)
Bouwens+2017b
HFF
XDFlimit
bottomline:withthecurrentstateoftheartforlensingmodelsandwithcurrentHubbledataonecannotsetusefulconstraintsfainterthanaboutMUV,AB ∼ -14
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sizesofstar-formingregionsinhigh-zgalaxies
gdi
lowluminosityhigh-zgalaxiesarefoundtobesurprisinglysmall
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Hubbleimagesofgalaxiesinthefirstbillionyearsthisiswhatthelargestandbrightesthigh-redshiftgalaxiestypicallylooklikeatz>~6
mostgalaxiesinthefirstbillionyearsareobserved
tobereallysmall!
thisisthesizeoftypicalfainthigh-redshiftgalaxiesonthesamescale
theMilkyWaytothesamescale(animageofUGC-12158– similartotheMW)
~sizeofHubblePSF
1.8”(~10kpc)
luminousyoungstarforminggalaxiesareakpc ortwoinsize– lowerluminositygalaxiesaremuchsmaller
gdi
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recoversourceplaneimage– magnified10-20X
HDF-S
galaxyCL1358-G1atz=4.92– 1.3Gyr afterBigBang:lensedbyarichclusterofgalaxiesatz~0.3
aremarkablefoldarcinCL1358– sizesofstar-formingregions
Ø moststarformation(>50%)inthebrightest“blob”
Ø just100-200pcinsize(re ~130pc)
distortedfoldimageof amagnifiedgalaxyafternearbyellipticalremoved
Franx GDI+1997
astronglylensedfoldarcdiscoveredinWFPC2imagingofCL1358followedupwithKeckLRISforredshiftandkinematics+NIRSPECimaging
SFRaround40M⨀/yr
gdi
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lensedresolutionsof~100pcorlesslike30-40mtelescopewithAO
• veryrareexampleshowingsuchdetailsinanearlygalaxy
• indicatesstar-formingregionsathighzareverysmall
~25X
Franx,GDI+1997
WFPC2images
ACSimages
a remarkablefoldarcinCL1358
Zitrin+2011
veryrare(!)
zarc =4.92
gdi
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arehighredshiftgalaxiesreallysosmall?
Bouwens+2017c
cf.CL1358-G1
☞ wecouldwellbeseeingacompacthighsurfacebrightnessregion(orregions)inalargerobject
gdi
z=4.92CL1358-G1
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lensedresolutionsof~100pcorlesslike30-40mtelescopewithAO
• veryrareexampleshowingsuchdetailsinanearlygalaxy
• indicatesstar-formingregionsathighzareverysmall
~25X
Franx,GDI+1997
WFPC2images
ACSimages
a remarkablefoldarcinCL1358
Zitrin+2011
veryrare(!)
zarc =4.92
ELTwithadaptiveopticsneededtomeasurethesizesofstarformingstructuresinasignificantsampleofearlygalaxies
gdi
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z~6-8galaxysizecomparisontolocalstarformingregions
Bouwens+2017c
seealsoVanzella+2017a,b;Laporte+2016;Kawamata+2015,2017
sizesofz~6-8galaxiesinHFFscomparedtostar-formingclusters/complexesand
superstarclusters
☞ observedsizesofz~6-8galaxiesaresimilartoz~0-3starformingcomplexes–
alsonote30Doradus
gdi
307z~6-8galaxiesinHFFs
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z~6-8galaxysizecomparisontonearbyevolvedobjects
seealsoVanzella+2017a,b;Laporte+2016;Kawamata+2015,2017
sizesofz~6-8galaxiesinHFFscomparedtonearbyevolved
objects
localobjectsfromNorris+2014(seealsoBrodie+2011)
☞ couldwebeseeingsomeglobularclustersformingat
veryhighredshift?
gdi
Bouwens+2017c
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* measuringthehighestredshifts
galaxiesatz~10(450Myr)
implicationsforcosmicstarformationatz>10
gdi
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measuringthehighestredshifts:GN-z11
HubbleandSpitzerreachoutintoJWSTterritorywiththedeterminationofthez~11.1redshiftofGN-z11
gdi
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GN-z11firstdetectedasaveryluminousz~10galaxyinGOODS-NasGN-z10-1
WFC3/IRgrismdetectedbreak&confirmedredshifttobe11.09+0.08-0.12
combinationofHSTgrism +WFC3/IR+SpitzerIRACgiveshighdegreeofconfidencetoredshiftdetermination
Oesch+2014,2016
GN-z10-1=>GN-z11
ageofuniverseis400Myr atz~11
gdi
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8 Oesch et al.
TABLE 2Summary of Measurements for GN-z11
R.A. 12 : 36 : 25.46Dec. +62 : 14 : 31.4Redshift z
grism
11.09+0.08�0.12
a
UV Luminosity MUV �22.1± 0.2Half � Light Radiusb 0.6± 0.3 kpclogMgal/M� c 9.0± 0.4log age/yr c 7.6± 0.4SFR 24± 10 M� yr�1
AUV
< 0.2 magUV slope � (f� / ��) �2.5± 0.2d
a Age of the Universe at z = 11.09 using our cosmol-ogy: 402 Myrb From Holwerda et al. (2015)c Uncertainties are likely underestimated, since ourphotometry only partially covers the rest-frame opti-cal for GN-z11d See also Wilkins et al. (2016)
to estimate how many such galaxies we could have ex-pected based on (1) the currently best estimates of theUV LF at z > 8 and (2) based on theoretical models andsimulations.Our target was found in a search of the GOODS fields,
which amount to ⇠ 160 arcmin2. However, in a sub-sequent search of the three remaining CANDELS fieldsno similar sources were found with likely redshifts atz & 10 (Bouwens et al. 2015a). We therefore use thefull 750 arcmin2 of the CANDELS fields with match-ing WFC3/IR and ACS imaging for a volume estimate,which amounts to 1.2⇥106 Mpc3 (assuming �z = 1).Using the simple trends in the Schechter parameters of
the UV LFs measured UV at lower redshift (z ⇠ 4 � 8)and extrapolating these to z = 11, we can get an empir-ical estimate of the number density of very bright galax-ies at z ⇠ 11. This amounts to 0.06 (Bouwens et al.2015b) or 0.002 (Finkelstein et al. 2015) expected galax-ies brighter thanM
UV
= �22.1 in our survey correspond-ing to less than 0.3 per surveyed square degree. Simi-larly, recent empirical models (Mashian et al. 2016; Ma-son et al. 2015; Trac et al. 2015) predict only 0.002�0.03galaxies as bright as GN-z11 in our survey or 0.01�0.2per deg2. All the assumed LF parameters together withthe resulting estimates of the number of expected brightgalaxies N
exp
are listed in Table 3.The above estimates illustrate that our discovery of
the unexpectedly luminous galaxy GN-z11 may challengeour current understanding of galaxy build-up at z > 8.A possible solution is that the UV LF does not followa Schechter function form at the very bright end as hasbeen suggested by some authors at z ⇠ 7 (Bowler et al.2014), motivated by ine�cient feedback in the very earlyuniverse. However, current evidence for this is still weak(see discussion in Bouwens et al. 2015b). Larger areastudies will be required in the future (such as the plannedWFIRST High Latitude Survey; Spergel et al. 2015) sur-veying several square degrees to determine the bright endof the UV LF to resolve this puzzle.
5. SUMMARY
In this paper we present HST slitless grism spectrafor a uniquely bright z > 10 galaxy candidate, whichwe previously identified in the GOODS-North field, GN-
6 7 8 9 10 11
−23
−22
−21
−20
−19Redshift
Abso
lute
Mag
nitu
de M
UV
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4
4
2
1
0.5
0.25
Age of the Universe [Gyr]
UV
Lum
inos
ity [L
/L*(z
=7)]
zspeczphot
GN-z11
Fig. 7.— The redshift and UV luminosities of known high-redshift galaxies from blank field surveys. Dark filled squares corre-spond to spectroscopically confirmed sources, while small gray dotsare photometric redshifts (Bouwens et al. 2015b). GN-z11 clearlystands out as one of the most luminous currently known galaxies atall redshifts z > 6 and is by far the most distant measured galaxywith spectroscopy (black squares; see Oesch et al. 2015b, for a fulllist of references). Wider area surveys with future near-infraredtelescopes (such as WFIRST) will be required to determine howcommon such luminous sources really are at z > 10.
TABLE 3Assumed LFs for z ⇠ 10� 11 Number Density Estimates
Reference � ⇤ /10�5 M⇤ ↵ Nexp
[Mpc�3] [mag] (< �22.1)
Bouwens et al. (2015b) 1.65 -20.97 -2.38 0.06Finkelstein et al. (2015) 0.96 -20.55 -2.90 0.002Mashian et al. (2016) 0.25 -21.20 -2.20 0.03Mason et al. (2015) 0.30 -21.05 -2.61 0.01Trac et al. (2015) 5.00 -20.18 -2.22 0.002
Note. — The parameters �⇤, M⇤, and ↵ represent the threeparameters of the Schechter UV LF taken from the di↵erent papers.
z11. Our 2D data show clear flux longward of ⇠ 1.47 µmexactly along the trace of the target galaxy and zeroflux at shorter wavelengths, thanks to our comprehensiveand accurate treatment of contamination by neighboringgalaxies. The interpretation that we indeed detect thecontinuum flux from GN-z11 is supported by the mor-phology of the spectrum, the fact that the counts fall o↵exactly where the sensitivity of the G141 grism drops, aswell as the consistency of the observed counts with theH-band magnitude of GN-z11 (see e.g. Fig 3).The grism spectrum, combined with the photometric
constraints, allows us to exclude plausible low-redshiftSEDs for GN-z11 at high confidence. In particular, wecan invalidate a low redshift SED of an extreme line emit-ter galaxy at z ⇠ 2 (see section 3 and Fig 4). Instead,the grism spectrum is completely consistent with a veryhigh-redshift solution at z
grism
= 11.09+0.08
�0.12
(see Figures3 and 5). This indicates that this galaxy lies at only⇠ 400 Myr after the Big Bang, extending the previousredshift record by ⇠ 150 Myr.GN-z11 is not only the most distant spectroscopically
measured source, but is likely even more distant thanall other high-redshift candidates with photometric red-shifts, including MACS0647-JD at z
phot
= 10.7+0.6
�0.4
(Coe
GN-z11– themostdistantgalaxyfoundtodate
surprisingdiscoveryofGN-z11:HST+Spitzer arereachingintoJWSTterritory
Oesch+2016
−22.5 −22 −21.5 −2110−8
10−7
10−6
10−5
Trac+15Mashian+15Mason+15
GN−z11
Absolute Magnitude Muv [AB mag]
q [m
ag−1
Mpc
−3]
Model LF Predictions
~10-
50x
high
er
GN-z11
Does GN-z11 tell us something fundamentally new about early galaxy formation?
• DetectionofGN-z11inexistingdataisunexpected,givencurrentmodels
• Expectedtorequire10-100xlargerareastofindonez~11galaxyasbrightasGN-z11
• Difficultthoughtodrawconclusionsbasedononesourcegdi
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GN-z11
thederivedphysicalpropertiesofGN-z11areconsistentwithexpectationsfrom
large-volumesimulations
simulationsshowthatgalaxiesasmassiveasGNz-11atz~11arerarebutnotunexpectedperse
Mutch+2016Waters+2016
butitisunexpectedtofindGN-z11insuchsmallsearch
volumes/areas(byfactor10-100)?BlueTides
mass109 M⨀ SFR24M⨀/yrAUV <0.2mag𝛽 -2.5age40Myr
DRAGONS
gdi
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measuringthehighestredshifts
* galaxiesatz~10(450Myr)
implicationsforcosmicstarformationatz>10
gdi
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theluminosityfunctionatz~10
z~10galaxiesarehardtofind!– 7yearsofWFC3/IRimaginghaveresultedinonly9galaxiesinallfields,HFF+CANDELSetc
Oesch+2017
theageoftheuniverseatz~10is~500Myr
gdi
~10x
notethechangeofanorderofmagnitudebetweenz~8andz~10
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theluminosityfunctionatz~10
Oesch+2017
considerablespreadbutshapematches(broadly)tomodels–butmodelsareconsistentlyhigh
gdi
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“acceleratedevolution”– thestarformationratedensityatz~9-10
clearlyatrendtolowerSFRDatz>8
“acceleratedevolution”isactuallyconsistentwiththeexpectedbuildup*ofdarkmatterhalosoverthattime
Oesch+2017
*darkmatterhalogrowth(>~1010 M⨀)fromHMFcalc – Murray+2013
gdi
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thecaseofthemissingz~10galaxies
indicationthatthesituationatz~10isunusual
thenumbersofobjectsthatwehavefoundissmallerthanallmodelsexceptGALFORM–theoffsetsaresmallinmanycasesbutarequitesystematic
Oesch+2017
observednumberofz~10galaxies
gdi
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modelcomparisons– thestarformationratedensityatz>6
notethat“acceleratedevolution”isseeninsomemodels,butthereisarangeofshapes/slopes
Oesch+2017
gdi
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cosmicstarformationinthefirst1.5billionyears
galaxiesareevolvingrapidlyinthefirst~600millionyears
therearefarfewergalaxiesthanwe(naively)expectedatearlytimes
thisisanimportantresultforJWST
gdiOesch+2017
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measuringthehighestredshifts
galaxiesatz~10(450Myr)
* implicationsforcosmicstarformationatz>10
gdi
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reionizationepoch– latestPlanck2016results
strikingconcordancebetween2016Planckresultsandgalaxyconstraints
implicationsofonsetofreionizationatz~10
simulation:Alvarezetal.2009 gdi
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Planck2016 remarkablemission
constraintsonthereionizationhistory
PlankCollaborationXLVII+2016
• …Thomsonopticaldepthτ =0.058±0.012….
• …averageredshiftatwhichreionizationoccursisfoundtoliebetweenz=7.8and8.8…
• …upperlimittothewidthofthereionizationperiodof∆z<2.8.
• …theUniverseisionizedatlessthanthe10%levelatredshiftsabovez≃ 10…
• …anearlyonsetofreionizationisstronglydisfavoredbythePlanckdata.
gdi
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Planck2016 remarkablemission
constraintsonthereionizationhistory
PlankCollaborationXLVII+2016
• …Thomsonopticaldepthτ =0.058±0.012….
• …averageredshiftatwhichreionizationoccursisfoundtoliebetweenz=7.8and8.8…
• …upperlimittothewidthofthereionizationperiodof∆z<2.8.
• …theUniverseisionizedatlessthanthe10%levelatredshiftsabovez≃ 10…
• …anearlyonsetofreionizationisstronglydisfavoredbythePlanckdata.
gdi
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reionizationconstraintsfromPlanck2016strikingconsistencywithgalaxyresults
reionizationhistorycomparedwithobservationalconstraints
endatz~6
PlankCollaborationXLVII+2016
constraintsonionizationfractionfromonsetduringreionization
onsetatz~10
68%&95%
evolutionoftheintegratedopticaldepthcomparedtogalaxyresults
Bouwens+2015Robertson+2015Ishigaki+2015
95%
Planck2016 τ68%
gdi
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reionizationconstraintsfromPlanck2016strikingconsistencywithgalaxyresults
reionizationhistorycomparedwithobservationalconstraints
endatz~6
PlankCollaborationXLVII+2016
constraintsonionizationfractionfromonsetduringreionization
onsetatz~10
68%&95%
evolutionoftheintegratedopticaldepthcomparedtogalaxyresults
Bouwens+2015Robertson+2015Ishigaki+2015
95%
Planck2016 τ68%
gdi
forthefirsttimewenowknowwhengalaxiesstartedtoreionize theuniverse
thisisacrucialpieceofinformationforhowfarbackwemighthavetolooktofind“firstgalaxies”
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implicationsforJWSTand“firstlight”fromthez~9-10LFsandthelatestPlanck2016results
gdi
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whatdoesallthistellusaboutJWSTandthe“first”galaxies?
discussionaboutwhatJWSTcanseere“firstlight”
verychallengingif”firstgalaxies”wereveryearly(z~15-20?– z>15isverydifficultforJWST)
reionizationonsetatz~10
FirstLightandReionizationoneofJWST’sfoursciencethemes
Planck
Gyr fromBigBang0.50.30.2
reionizationonsetatz~10
“acceleratedevolution”
gdiMason+2015
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whatdoesallthistellusaboutJWSTandthe“first”galaxies?
Newresults:“acceleratedevolution”fromz~9-10LFsandreionizationturn-onatz~10-11fromPlanck
=>suggestmajorchangesinthenatureofthegalaxypopulationatredshiftsaroundz~10-15
Ithinktheseresultspointtosubstantialbuild-upoftheearliestgalaxiesatz~10-15– veryaccessibleforJWST’s“firstlight”goal
☞ excitingtimesaheadat“CosmicSunrise”!☜
reionizationonsetatz~10
FirstLightandReionizationoneofJWST’sfoursciencethemes
Planck
Gyr fromBigBang0.50.30.2
reionizationonsetatz~10
“acceleratedevolution”
gdi
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☛ thenextdecadeto2030☚
gdigdi
lookinggood…..
note:thefocushereisonoptical/IR/submm capabilitiesthatwillplayamajorroleinthenextdecadeforhighredshiftgalaxiesatz>~2.SKAisnotlistedsinceitstimescaleremainsuncertain.
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theheartofthenextdecade
gdi
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theheartofthenextdecade– andwithasupportingcast!
gdi
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☛ thelong-termfuture– afterJWST☚
gdigdi
notsosanguine…..
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☛ thespacetelescopeflagshipsofthe2030s☚
gdigdi
HabEx
ESA/USLISA
NASAstrategicmissionsunderstudyfor2020Decadal
OST– OriginsSpaceTelescope
LUVOIR10-15m
4-8m
starshade?
5𝜇m-1mm
ESA Athena
?
plannedfor2034
Lynx x-ray
only0-1ofthese!
✓
plannedfor2028
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flagshipstakedecades fromconcepttocompletion
• Hubble– conceptin1960s;Decadal??;launched1990• Spitzer/SIRTF– conceptin1970s;1990Decadal;launched2002• GSMT– conceptinlate1990s;2000Decadal;ESOELTin2025;US??• ALMA– concept1980s;1990Decadal;completed2014-6??• WFIRST– concept~2005(JDEM);2010Decadal;launch2025-6?
gdi
S
• NGSTpassively-cooledIR10mconceptinmid-1980s• NASA/STScI NGSTscienceconference1989• 1989/90:1990DecadalSurveyUV-OpticalinSpacepanel:6-mpassively-
cooledIRtelescope– expectedcostwas$2BinFY90$forlaunchin2009• 1991:NASAHQAstrotech 21studyandworkshopon8mNGST• 2000Decadalrecommends8mNGST• JWSTtolaunchin2019 see2016STScINewsletterarticle
NGST:TheEarlyDaysofJWSTnewsletter.stsci.edu/early-webb-history
OTHERS:
NGST/JWST:
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☛ ifwecollectivelyfailtolookmorethanadecadeintothefutureforflagshipopportunitiesinthe
2030s,IamveryconcernedthatastronomywillloseanopportunitytoleverageoffthesuccessofJWSTandwillundergoasignificantdeclineinfunding☚
gdigdi
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whatis“beyondJWST”?
JWST’stechnologyandsuccesswillopenupnewhorizonsandgiveusall*confidencethatwecandoevengreatermissions
*policy-makers,government,industry,scientists
ideally“beyondJWST”therewouldbeanotherflagshipcommensuratewithourcapabilitiesandsociety’sinterestinexploringtheuniverseandinsearchingfor(andfinding?)lifeelsewhereinourgalaxy!Butwillwedoso?….
gdi
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☛ thankstothelocalorganizersandKarinawhoworkedhardtomakeaconferencelikethishappenandtofunctionsosmoothly☚
gdigdi