Online Consumer Lending Industry Review: An Industry of Growth, Innovation & Transition John Hecht...

Online Consumer Lending Industry Review: An Industry of Growth, Innovation & Transition

John Hecht

(415) 655-6719

[email protected]

Kyle Joseph

(415) 655-6720

[email protected]

The analyst primarily responsible for the preparation of the content of this presentation certifies that (i) all views expressed in this presentation accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about the subject company and securities, and (ii) no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the analyst in this presentation. See required disclosures beginning on page 61 of this presentation. For additional required disclosures, visit our Web site at www.stephens.com/research or request such information by writing to us at the address provided at the end of this presentation.

Agenda

• Industry Review

• Key Trends and Thoughts for the Future

• Regulatory Update/Review

• Valuation and Market Trends

© 2013 Stephens Inc.111 Center Street Little Rock, AR 72201 501-377-2000 800-643-9691 stephens.com Member NYSE, SIPC


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INSTITUTIONAL SALES & EQUITY TRADING

MERGERS & ACQUISITIONSADVISORY

PUBLIC OFFERINGS OFDEBT & EQUITY

EQUITY RESEARCH

WEALTHMANAGEMENT

PRINCIPALINVESTMENTS

Bruce Miller

Managing Director, Corporate Finance

Tel: (404) 461-5122

[email protected]

John Hecht

Managing Director, Equity Research

Tel: (415) 655-6719

[email protected]

Full Services Investment Bank

Industry Review



2012 in Review

Growth trends in 2012 were similar to 2011:

• Store volume and revenue growth was modest

• Economic and regulatory environment continues to drive influx of underbanked consumers

• Internet growth exceeds store growth

The regulatory environment remains highly uncertain, but is maturing for state level lenders

• Policy makers have a greater understanding of the use of and need for the product

• State activity relatively quiet in CY12, and we observed encouraging progress in a few states

• CFPB audits / studies the industry and publishes white paper

• Recently, the DOJ, CFPB and FDIC orchestrated a coordinated attack on banks which process non state model lenders

Product and channel diversification is becoming a strategic focus

New product innovation and channel development is increasingly important for business differentiation and growth

We are observing a positive feedback loop for strong companies who are able to attract capital

• Institutional investors are willing to provide capital to large players with strong cash flows

• These market participants have been able to deploy this capital opportunistically, enhancing their market position along the way


2013 YTD Trends

Key public participants with exposure to pawn lending have been negatively influenced due to gold price declines

• 3 large public peers in alternative consumer lending segment – FCFS, CSH and EZPW – have large pawn operations which have undergone growth pressure as the price of golf has declined (70% of pawn loans are collateralized by gold).

• This has resulted in lower consolidated EPS growth which has impacted stocks.

Domestic payday lending is mixed

• Store based loan demand appears to be modestly lower than expectations – consumers appear to be ‘hunkering down’.

• Certain regions, such as Texas, are contracting due to competitive factors and regulatory issues.

• Online lending growth trends remain strong, although smaller lenders lacking scale appear to be suffering. We continue to believe that Online growth is related to store cannibalization, new customer acquisition and product development

Installment lending is a tale of two stories

• Trends related to store based installment lending is similar to payday lending, with slowing seasonal trends

• Online loan demand is very strong as a combination of expanding product offerings, growing customer awareness and lack of supply (many of the large banks left the market during the downturn)

• Many online lenders are entering this segment

Credit trends are benign

• Delinquency and default levels have moved off of lows, but remain stable and below historical averages


Store Count and % Change – Payday Lending

Sources: Public Company Filings & Stephens Inc.


Volume and Revenue Trends – Payday Lending

Online, Storefront & Total

Total Industry volumes:• $30.1 bil. storefront + $18.6 bil. Internet = $48.7 bil. total

• Which is 10% growth from 2011

Total Industry Revenues:• $5.0 bil. storefront + $4.3 bil. Internet = $9.3 bil. total

• Which is 14% growth from 2011Sources: Public Company Filings & Stephens Inc.


Summary of Trends/Statistics – Payday Lending

Unit growth:

• Physical unit growth remained negative, although the pace of contraction is slowing as state-level regulatory environment was relatively stable during 2012 and as operators have rationalized networks

Credit:

• Credit trends appear generally stable for those remaining focused on traditional storefront payday lending

Store Front Volume and Revenue Growth:

• As shown in prior graphs, store-front growth appears to be modestly positive, albeit at a slow pace

• Impacted by regulatory changes, cannibalization from Online lenders and a strategic focus on product and channel diversification

Online growth continues to outpace storefront growth

• 5-year CAGR of 20%, compared to a flat CAGR for store figures

• Online lenders benefit from product innovation and customer convenience

Key Trends and Thoughts for the Future



Focus on Product Innovation is Increasing

Trend towards larger loan balances, multiple payment products

• Payday lenders now offering installment loans, auto title loans, bill pay services, money orders, prepaid card services etc.

Varying business models and new products are a driver of differentiation and growth

• More than half of same-store sales growth for large lenders came from new products in 2012

Diversified product offerings are important for customer acquisition and retention

Additionally, we believe regulators are more favorable to business models which can offer products with terms and prices that adjust for credit risk and/or a customer’s ability to repay


Example of New Product Development

$17.5$41.3 $66.6

$21.6$42.7

$149.7$141.4

$141.8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

4Q10 4Q11 4Q12

Domestic Consumer Loan Mix at CSH(1)

Installment Loans Line of Credit Single Pay Loans

As shown by the above figures, CSH has experienced strong loan growth from its installment product and LOC products, which now comprise nearly half of its domestic

loan balance (including storefront and online balances).



Internet Trends – Enova Case Study

Revenue and EBITDA ($ Revenue and EBITDA ($ millions)millions)



Internet Evolution is Influencing the Landscape

Relative growth

• As shown earlier, Internet growth is outpacing store growth; the result of new customer adoption, cannibalization and greater flexibility pertaining to product design and regulatory oversight

Absolute size

• According to our estimates, the Internet now constitutes about one-third of volumes and is approaching 50% of revenues

The regulatory landscape

• Oversight and policy-making is much more complex and dynamic as new laws and regulatory pressures can impact store and Internet models differently

• State-level, choice-of-law and sovereign nations have different and varying degrees of regulatory oversight (more on this later)

Institutional investor community

• Venture capitalists have emerged as a major source of capital to Internet Lending businesses

• These business models tend to be focused on product innovation and rapid growth

• Venture capitalists are not permanent owners of businesses and will look to exit at some point


Issues Associated with the Internet

Composition of Regulatory Models (estimated) Leads to Complications

• 30% - Individual State Licensed

• 20% - Single State (export)

• 30% - Sovereign Nation/Tribal

• 20% - Offshore

CFPB

• Appears to be focused on lead generation, marketing / disclosure, affiliate relationships (and accountability of these)

• These are generally Internet specific focuses

Recently, DOJ, CFPB and FDIC have orchestrated coordinated attack on banks which serve non state model lenders

• The regulators are putting severe pressure on banks which process loan payments for non-state-regulated lenders

• This is the most meaningful regulatory event over the past 5 years

• (More on this later)


Industry Ownership Will Affect Future

Private Equity owns several large market participants

• These owners drive consolidation

• P/E owners will likely seek liquidity at some point

Venture Capitalists are key participants in the development of the Internet as a distribution and product innovation platform for alternative consumer lending

• VCs are relatively new participants in this segment, and, similar to P/E owners, will seek liquidity at some point

• VCs are more focused on using innovation and product development to drive growth (relative to traditional store operators)

Grupo Elektra represents the first international investor in the sector

• Grupo Elektra is a long-term focused, well capitalized and strategically smart owner, which now controls the largest domestic footprint

Industry participants need to observe actions taken by large investors / owners

• Strategic undertakings by the large investors could have far-reaching effects

• All operators should be in dialogue with competitors, bankers and / or consultants in order to react to these changes quickly and opportunistically

Regulatory Review



2013 Regulatory Update – Federal Level

U.S. CFPB

• On 4/23/2013 the CFPB issued an in-depth review of short-term dollar loans, with a distinct focus on both payday loans and their bank-offered counterparts, known as direct deposit advances. The white paper was critical of repeat usage.

• Recent speeches / reports also suggest that the CFPB is focused on the less regulated and more aggressive components of the market, such as lead generation, offshore lending (Internet), tribal lending (Internet), collections and repeat usage.

• We believe the Bureau may eventually take oversight of installment lending as well.

Federal Charter continues to gain momentum

U.K.

• In March, the OFT released a report which focused on widespread lack of compliance in the industry – the report provided 50 operators (90% of industry) with 12 weeks to gain compliance.

• The Competition Commission is studying industry given potential competitive dysfunction in the markets.

• The BIS (Dept. for Business, Innovation and Skills) and the FCA have suggested that rate caps are unlikely

• The FCA recently put out proposals for consumer lenders, which included a rollover cap of 2x and a use of CPA cap at 2x.


Recent State Level Regulatory Activity

Improved relative position of industry• Regulators increasingly recognize the need for the non-bank credit products

• Discussions becoming more rational, less political

Some jurisdictions making progress to re-opening or increasing access

• NY, PA, CA, WA and NC

Some States in need of new regulations as rate / volume caps make industry unviable

• WA, DE

Texas legislation meets • Result was status quo

The development of Internet lending presents regulatory challenges

• The variety of Internet models (state-level, choice-of-law, offshore, sovereign nation) presents complications to regulators

More and more, there seems to be a growing desire to identify, establish and enact a set of common best practices


Recent Activity – DOJ, CFPB, FDIC Recently, in a the DOJ, CFPB and FDIC, in a coordinated plan,

pressured banks to terminate processing for non state compliant lenders

• This created a major disruption for Tribal, Offshore and State Export (Single State) models

This represents a potential major juncture for Internet lenders• Will this require a brief retrenchment and some model changes?... Or will this result in one

regulatory model going forward (the state compliant lenders)? It is too early to tell.

What has happened thus far?• We believe offshore and single state lenders have seen a material retrenchment, if not shut

down

• For Tribal lenders, we believe there have been some closures, while some lenders continue to operate in a limited fashion

Near term considerations• Appeal the NY Injunction decision – if the appeal is lost the pressure will likely increase

across the country (for example, California followed New York)

• Lead generation costs are on the decline

• State level lenders have the opportunity to grow and increase market share


Recent Activity – DOJ, CFPB, FDIC

Intermediate term considerations• If lose appeal, funding will likely be difficult to obtain until case is solved / completed

• If this is a Supreme Court case, this could take two years

Legal precedent is positive, but political and regulatory pressures are immense

• Cabazon case in California as example of positive precedent

What to do?• Impossible to forecast outcome

• For Tribal lenders, need to assess how you feel about legal precedent and how much risk you can take

Other thoughts• This situation could be a positive catalyst for further innovation as traditional payday

lenders are forced to look at other models / products


Regulatory ThoughtsThe regulatory environment continues to mature; however, it

is also becoming more complicated and costly to manage compliance

• There are more layers of regulatory agencies with which to interact

• Keeping up-to-date with regulatory migration, product modifications and disclosure requirements is increasingly demanding

As a result, operators need to develop compliance as a key competency

• Be ready to modify processes to accommodate changing laws

• Be increasingly accountable for affiliate’s actions

• Understand potential issues and have contingency plans

The environment is not unlike the commercial banking world, where small operators’ profitability model is being shaken by regulatory burdens, which should drive further consolidation

Valuation and Market Trends



Public Operators – Comparative Valuations

30 day MarketPrice Price Avg. Vol. Cap. P/CYE Price EV/EBITDA

Company Ticker 10/14/2013 Rating Target (000s) (mil.) 2013E 2014E Book CY12 CY13E

Cash America International Inc. CSH $45.07 OW $50.00 211.6 1,269.2 10.6x 9.1x 1.2x 5.3x 5.2x

DFC Global Corp. DLLR $11.90 OW $18.00 512.1 469.4 10.9x 6.8x 1.1x 4.1x 5.4x

Ezcorp Inc. EZPW $15.94 EW $22.00 270.8 817.1 8.8x 7.3x 0.9x 4.3x 5.1x

First Cash Financial FCFS $57.50 EW $51.00 134.1 1,661.9 20.6x 16.6x 5.3x 13.1x 12.2x

Regional Management RM $31.80 OW $34.00 140.3 400.3 13.4x 11.1x 3.0x 13.2x 11.3x

World Acceptance Corp. WRLD $97.81 EW $88.00 106.3 1,151.8 11.2x 10.0x 3.3x 8.7x 8.1x

Mean 170.4 991.6 12.3x 10.0x 2.6x 8.7x 8.4x

Median 134.1 817.1 11.1x 9.9x 2.1x 8.7x 8.2xEPS Estimates for DLLR and EZPW reflect adjusted EPS


Public Operators’ Valuations: EV/EBITDA

Sources: Public Company Filings, Factset Research Systems & Stephens Inc. estimates9/30/13 LTM EBITDAs reflect Stephens Estimates


Public Operators’ Valuations: EV/EBITDA Trends

11.4x

9.0x

6.6x5.5x

4.9x 5.3x 5.2x 5.3x6.2x

7.4x6.8x 6.8x

7.4x 7.5x8.0x

7.5x8.1x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

Sources: Public Company Filings, Factset Research Systems & Stephens Inc. estimatesIndex includes CSH, DLLR, EZPW, FCFS, RM, WRLD. 6/30/13 LTM EBITDAs reflect Stephens estimates


Public Operators’ Valuations: Pawn/Payday Valuation Trends

Sources: Factset Research Systems & Stephens Inc. estimates

1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/1367

89

10

1112

13

14

Source: FactSet Fundamentals

Price to Earnings - NTM (Mean) 11-Oct-2010 to 11-Oct-2013 (Daily)

1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/1356

78

9

1011

12

13



1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/134

6

8

10

12

14



1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/1310

15

20

25



http://www.dfg.com/default.asp


Public Operators: Installment Lending Valuation Trends

Sources: Factset Research Systems & Stephens Inc. estimates

1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/136

7

8

9

10

11



1/11 4/11 7/11 10/11 1/12 4/12 7/12 10/12 1/13 4/13 7/13 10/134

6

8

10

12

14



Regional Management Corp.Average PE - RM-US


Key M&A Transactions


DATE ACQUIROR TARGET SECTOR MULTIPLE VALUATION

June 13Installment

LendingN/A N/A

May 13Installment

LendingN/A N/A

May 13Installment

LendingN/A N/A

Feb. 13 Online Lending N/A $78.0mm

Jan. 13Installment

LendingN/A $138.9mm

Dec. 12Installment

LendingN/A N/A

Nov. 12 Online Lending N/A $50.7mm

Oct. 12 34 U.S. Pawn Stores Pawn Lending N/A $70.0mm


Key Industry Capital Raises


DATE COMPANY TRANSACTION USE OF PROCEEDS

Sept. 13 $110mm Secondary Equity Offering

Regional did not receive any proceeds from the offering, it was 100% secondary with Parallel and Palladium as the selling shareholders

Sept. 13$160mm Senior Secured Term Loan B

due 2018Libor + 975bps

Refinance existing debtProvide capital to expand its existing business.

Aug. 13 $40mm Subordinated Debt due 2018 Used to fund growth

July 13$165mm 12.00% Senior Secured Notes

due 2018

Repay borrowings outstanding under an existing senior credit facility, to fund a dividend payment and for general corporate purposes

July 13 $525mm of 8.5% notes due 2018Proceeds going to tender for existing debt and general corporate purposes

June 13$30mm Senior Secured Credit Facility

due 2016Used to fund growth

May 13

$300mm 5.75% Senior Secured Notes due 2018

extends and amends existing revolving credit facility

Use net proceeds to repay existing indebtedness, including outstanding balances under domestic and multi-currency LOC, and remaining proceeds for general corporate purposes

Feb. 13$125mm HoldCo.

12.00% Senior Cash Pay Notes due 2017

Pay dividend to shareholders


Summary of Capital Markets

Public company valuation trends:

• Public companies in the non-bank consumer finance sector have underperformed over the past year; however, this has been primarily related to weakness in non-payday loan products

• Current valuation levels are well below peak multiples, but are well off the lows

• Regulatory clarity should support valuation increases, and stable or rising gold with help as well (even though this has nothing to do with payday or installment lending)

M&A activity:

• The pace of M&A activity was consistent over the past 12 months

• Key industry participants who have access to capital are pursuing acquisitions to enhance product, channel and geographic diversification

Capital raising activity:

• Investors, predominantly debt, remain attracted to the cash flow characteristics of the industry

• Venture capital emerging as critical investor in Internet businesses


Closing Thoughts

Consistent end-market conditions support demand for financial services for the underbanked

• Traditional sources of credit continue to restrict access to middle and low income consumers

• Increasing taxes, low wage growth, rising food costs, etc. support ongoing demand for credit for consumers

We expect current growth patterns to persist

• Modest volume and revenue growth for store lenders

• Ongoing, but slowing contraction of national store count (this could reverse if a new state opens up)

• Relative incremental growth on the Internet

Product innovation and channel expansion is increasingly a strategic directive

• Product development is a driver of growth and differentiation

• This focus is helpful to regulatory messaging and customer acquisition / retention


Closing Thoughts (Cont’d)

The evolution of the Internet is progressively important

• The Internet is a critical market participant

• The regulatory environment is made more complicated and dynamic by the evolution of the Internet

• With the Internet has come a new set of investors with a different set of focuses

Recent activities by the DOJ, CFPB and FDIC represent the biggest disruption in several years and results in high uncertainty for the near term

Industry ownership will influence the landscape over the next few years

• Private equity firms, well capitalized owners and key market participants have access to capital to further consolidate and shape the industry

• Strategic focus of private equity firms, well capitalized owners and VCs may vary from traditional store operators

Industry consolidation will continue

• Large operators will continue to opportunistically consolidate

• More onerous and costly compliance serves as impetus to consider selling for smaller operators


Required Disclosures

The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of this presentation has received compensation that is based on the firm’s overall revenue which includes investment banking revenue.

Rating Definitions:

Company Stock Ratings: OVERWEIGHT (O) – The stock’s total return is expected to be greater than the total return of the company’s industry sector, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. EQUAL-WEIGHT (E) – The stock’s total return is expected to be equivalent to the total return of the company’s industry sector, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT (U) – The stock’s total return is expected to be less than the total return of the company’s industry sector, on a risk-adjusted basis, over the next 12 months. VOLATILE (V) – The stock’s price volatility is potentially higher than that of the company’s industry sector. The company stock ratings may reflect the analyst’s subjective assessment of risk factors that could impact the company’s business.

Distribution of Stephens Inc.'s Ratings (as of 03/28/13)

% Investment Banking ClientsRating % (Past 12 Months)BUY 56 21HOLD 43 8SELL 1 0

OTHER DISCLOSURESThis presentation has been prepared solely for informative purposes as of its stated date and is not a solicitation, or an offer, to buy or sell any security. It does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the material. Information included in the presentation was obtained from internal and external sources which we consider reliable, but we have not independently verified such information and do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Such information is believed to be accurate on the date of issuance of the presentation, and all expressions of opinion apply on the date of issuance of the presentation. No subsequent publication or distribution of this presentation shall mean or imply that any such information or opinion remains current at any time after the stated date of the presentation. Prices, yields, and availability are subject to change with the market. Nothing in this presentation is intended, or should be construed, as legal, accounting, regulatory or tax advice. Any discussion of tax attributes is provided for informational purposes only, and each investor should consult his/her/its own tax advisors regarding any and all tax implications or tax consequences of any investment in securities discussed in this presentation. We do not undertake to advise you of any changes in any such information or opinion. Additional information available upon request.

Company Ticker PriceCash America International, Inc. CSH $45.07DFC Global Corp. DLLR $11.90EZCORP, Inc. Class A EZPW $15.94First Cash Financial Services, Inc. FCFS $57.50Regional Management Corp. RM $31.80World Acceptance Corporation WRLD $97.81

Online Consumer Lending Industry Review: An Industry of Growth, Innovation & Transition John Hecht...

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