ONE POWYS NEEDS ASSESSMENTone.powys.gov.uk/uploads/media/Appendix_3_-_Needs...1 COMMUNITY JOINT...

ONE POWYS

NEEDS ASSESSMENT v0.1 (19.07.11)

COMMUNITY JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/3/2011

1

CONTENTS

ISSUE C1 Community cohesion...................................................................2

ISSUE C2 Aging population .........................................................................4

ISSUE C3 Hard to reach groups ..................................................................9

ISSUE C4 participation in civic society.......................................................13

ISSUE C5 Carers .......................................................................................18

Footnote: issues for research .....................................................................22

KEY

indicator also identified as outcome measure

key point of concern

key point not of concern

key point to monitor


2

ISSUE C1 Community cohesion

NARRATIVE ‘The term community cohesion (is) used to describe a state of harmony or tolerance between people from different backgrounds living within a community. It is linked to the concept of social capital and the idea that if we know our neighbours and contribute to community activity then we are more likely to look out for each other, increase cohesion and minimise the cost of dependency and institutional care.’ 1 Community cohesion is usually high in small rural communities where families have lived for generations, but can break down if the younger generation move out for work and education, or if the community expands rapidly due to inmigration from another part of the country. Community cohesion is a valuable resource where it exists in rural communities, and service providers need to actively nurture it in strategy and delivery of local services.

KEY POINTS See graph C1 a

When surveyed in 2007, 82% of residents in rural Wales said they felt part of the local community.

Only 39% of residents surveyed in 2007 in rural Wales felt they could influence decisions that affected their area.


1 www.cohesioninstitute.org.uk


3

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS C1 a Community feeling, Rural Wales Survey, 2007

11.2%

64.6%

70.7%

45.1%

46.4%

47.6%

18.7%

5.5%

28.2%

29.4%

23.6%

36.9%

37.0%

30.3%

16.0%

11.8%

Agreement on statement ‐ I can influence decisions that affect this area

Agreement on statement ‐ I feel safe living in my community

Agreement on statement ‐ I definitely enjoy living in my community

Agreement on statement ‐ I consider myself to be a member of the local

community

Agreement on statement ‐ People in my community look out for each other

Agreement on statement ‐ There is a strong sense of community feeling in the

place that I live

Agreement on statement ‐ The ability to speak Welsh is important for participating

fully in my community

Agreement on statement ‐ It can feel isolated living where I do

Agree strongly Tend to agree

Source: Wales Rural Observatory, 2007 Household survey of Rural Wales

KEY POINTS

When surveyed in 2007, 82% of residents in rural Wales said they felt part of the local community.



4

ISSUE C2 Aging population

NARRATIVE In the next two decades the number of elderly people in the UK will increase rapidly owing to the post WWII spike in births (aka baby boomers). How well communities cope with this change in structure (ie the increasing proportion of elderly residents) will be influenced by the strength of intergenerational exchanges and social networks.


The estimated number of residents aged 80 or over in Powys increased by 26% from 6,600 in 2001 to 8,300 in 2009 (Wales 16%). See graph C2 b

An estimated 6.3% of the Powys population were aged 80 or over in 2009 (Wales 5.1%). See graph C2 c

The number of residents aged 80 or over in Powys is projected to rise from 8,200 in 2008 to 20,200 in 2033. See graph C2d

The percentage of residents aged 80 or over in Powys is projected to rise from 6.3% in 2008 to 13.8% in 2033, compared with 9.4% in Wales in 2033.


5

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS C2 a Estimated population aged 80 and over, Powys 2001-2009, thousands

3.61 3.81 4.08 4.17 4.27 4.37 4.43 4.28 4.24

1.98 1.981.96 2.06 2.20 2.37 2.49 2.71 2.78

1.041.09

1.11 1.131.20

1.201.25 1.25 1.32

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys: estimated population aged 90+, thousands

Powys: estimated population aged 85‐89, thousands

Powys: estimated population aged 80‐84, thousands

Source WAG StatsWales ONS Mid Year Estimates© Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The estimated number of residents aged 80 or over in Powys increased by 26% from 6,600 in 2001 to 8,300 in 2009 (Wales 16%).


6

C2 b Estimated percentage of population aged 80 and over, Powys, Wales 2001 to 2009

4.5%

4.7%

4.8%

4.8%

4.9%

5.0%

5.0%

5.1%

5.1%

5.2%

5.4%

5.6%

5.7%

5.9%

6.1%

6.2%

6.3%

6.3%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wales: % of population aged 80+ Powys: % of population aged 80 plus

Source WAG StatsWales ONS Mid Year Estimates© Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

An estimated 6.3% of the Powys population were aged 80 or over in 2009 (Wales 5.1%).


7

C2 c Projected population aged 80 and over, Powys 2008 to 2033

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

Powys: projected population aged 90+, thousands

Powys: projected population aged 85‐89, thousands

Powys: projected population aged 80‐84, thousands

Source: WAG 2008-based local authority population projections © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The number of residents aged 80 or over in Powys is projected to rise from 8,200 in 2008 to 20,200 in 2033.


8

C2 d Projected percentage of population aged 80 and over, Powys and Wales 2008 to 2033

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Powys: projected % of population aged 80+ Wales: projected % of population aged 80+

Source: ONS 2008 based sub-national population projections © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of residents aged 80 or over in Powys is projected to rise from 6.3% in 2008 to 13.8% in 2033, compared with 9.4% in Wales in 2033.


9

ISSUE C3 Hard to reach groups

NARRATIVE Hard to reach groups such as households under stress, vulnerable people and ethnic minorities are all less likely to engage in consultations, democratic processes and community activity, and more consideration and effort is required to find out their needs. Residents belonging to minority groups can be individually more likely to become victims of hate crime in rural areas than in urban areas, because there are relatively fewer of them, despite the actual incidence rate of hate crime usually being lower.


In the 2009/10 Residents Opinion Survey, 2 out of 21 ( 9.5%) of residents who had experienced difficulty in accessing council services said they believed it was due to prejudice2. This represented a drop from the survey in 2008/09 both in the number that had experienced difficulty, 44, and the proportion of them that believed it was due to prejudice, 11.4%. See graph C3 b

There were 9.3 prosecutions for racially and religiously aggravated hate crime per 100,000 adults in the Dyfed Powys police force area in 2009-2020, (Wales 22.7 per 100,000).

There were 2.2 prosecutions for disability hate crime and 2.2 prosecutions for homophobic and transphobic crimes per 100,000 adults in the Dyfed Powys police force area in 2009-2020, (Wales rates 2.9 and 1.9 per 100,000 respectively). See graph C3 c

When surveyed in 2007, only 12 % of residents in Wales said they would have no objection to a gypsy/traveller site being located near to their home.

76% of residents surveyed in Wales in 2007 said that their neighbourhoods are places where people from different backgrounds can live together harmoniously.

2 For example prejudice leading to discrimination on the basis of a resident’s age, ethnicity, language or disability


10

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS C3 a Reasons for difficulty, barriers or disadvantage in accessing a Council Service, Powys Residents Opinion Service 2008 to 2010

39

19

5

2

2008/09 2009/10

prejudice given as reason for difficulty, barrier or disadvantage

other reason given for difficulty, barrier or disadvantage

Source: Powys CC Residents Opinion Surveys 2008/09 and 2009/10

KEY POINTS

In the 2009/10 Residents Opinion Survey, 2 out of 21 ( 9.5%) of residents who had experienced difficulty in accessing council services said they believed it was due to prejudice3. This represented a drop from the survey in 2008/09 both in the number that had experienced difficulty, 44, and the proportion of them that believed it was due to prejudice, 11.4%.

3 For example prejudice leading to discrimination on the basis of a resident’s age, ethnicity, language or disability


11

C3 b Hate crime prosecutions per 100,000 adults, Welsh Police Force Areas, Wales, 2009 to 2010

9.3

19.5 22.5 24.4

31.1

2.2

1.3

2.9 2.6

5.4

2.2

1.3

1.9 0.9

4.0

Dyfed Powys Police Force Area

Gwent Police Force Area

All Wales South Wales Police Force area

North Wales Police Force Area

2009‐2010 disability hate crime prosecutions /100k adults

2009‐2010 homophobic and transphobic crime prosecutions /100k adults

2009‐2010 Racially and religiously aggravated hate crime prosecutions /100k adults

Source: Crown Prosecution Service; Hate crime and crimes against older people report 2009-2010 data © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

There were 9.3 prosecutions for racially and religiously aggravated hate crime per 100,000 adults in the Dyfed Powys police force area in 2009-2020, (Wales 22.7 per 100,000).

There were 2.2 prosecutions for disability hate crime and 2.2 prosecutions for homophobic and transphobic crimes per 100,000 adults in the Dyfed Powys police force area in 2009-2020, (Wales rates 2.9 and 1.9 per 100,000 respectively).


12

C3 c social attitudes to ethnicity: Wales 2007

4.0%

44.3%

26.3%

16.7%

24.6%

13.9%

6.1%

3.1%

8.3%

33.5%

49.6%

41.6%

29.4%

28.3%

24.9%

7.9%

Agree/disagree ‐ I would have no objection to a gypsy/traveller site being located near to my

home

Agree/disagree ‐ it would not matter to me if one of my close relatives married someone

from a different ethnic background

Agree/disagree ‐ this neighbourhood is a place where people from different backgrounds can

live together harmoniously

Agree/disagree ‐ it is better for a country if there are a variety of different cultures

Agree/disagree ‐ if a country wants to reduce tensions it should stop immigration

Agree/disagree ‐ it is better for a country if almost everyone shares the same customs and

traditions

Agree/disagree ‐ on the whole, Muslims who live in Wales make a positive contribution to

society

Agree/disagree ‐ to be truly Welsh, you have to be white

Strongly agree Tend to agree

Source: LGDU / WAG Living in Wales Survey 2007, © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

When surveyed in 2007, only 12 % of residents in Wales said they would have no objection to a gypsy/traveller site being located near to their home.

76% of residents surveyed in Wales in 2007 said that their neighbourhoods are places where people from different backgrounds can live together harmoniously.


13

ISSUE C4 Participation in civic society

NARRATIVE Local clubs, societies and volunteering activity are all evidence of the extent to which people are participating in the life of their community, looking after and enjoying the company of their neighbours. This strengthens individual and community well-being. However these activities are hard to define and quantify. Elections turnouts in the UK have been generally declining over the years since WWII, giving cause for concern that there is growing disinterest in democracy and / or cynicism about the influence that voting can bring to bear on the political decision makers.


25.2% of all adults surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary service to either organisations or individuals or both in the previous three years. See graph C4 b

17.9% of all volunteers surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary services to health disability and social welfare groups and 15.1% to community or neighbourhood groups in the previous three years. See graph C4 c

42.7 % of respondents to the 2007 Rural Wales survey had attended a public meeting in the previous year. See graph C4 d

In the 2010 general election the turnout in the Brecon and Radnor constituency was 72.5%, and in the Montgomeryshire constituency 69.4% (Wales 64.9%).

In Powys as in Wales, England and Scotland, the election turnout rates rose from 2005, and slightly exceeded the 2001 levels.


14

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS

C4 a Percentage of adults that gave voluntary service Wales, 2005- 2007

10.3%

8.8%

6.1%

% of adults in Wales

gave voluntary service to organisation(s) not individual(s) in 2005‐2007

gave voluntary service to individual(s) not organisation(s) in 2005‐2007

gave voluntary service to both organisation(s) and individual(s) in 2005‐2007

Source: WAG Living in Wales Survey 2007 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

25.2% of all adults surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary service to either organisations or individuals or both in the previous three years.


15

C4 b Percentage of all volunteers in each categories of groups, clubs and organisations receiving services of volunteers Wales, 2005-2007

0.8%

1.8%

2.0%

2.7%

3.0%

4.2%

5.5%

7.2%

8.9%

9.5%

9.7%

13.7%

14.3%

14.3%

15.1%

17.9%

39.6%

Trade Union activity

Justice and human rights

Political

Safety, first aid

Citizens' groups

Education for adults

The environment, animals

Other

The elderly

Sports / exercise (taking part, coaching or going to …

Hobbies / recreations / arts / social clubs

Youth / children's activities (outside school)

Children's education / schools

Religious

Community or neighbourhood groups

Health, disability and social welfare

Friends, relatives or other members of the community

Source: WAG Living in Wales survey 2007 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

17.9% of all volunteers surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary services to health disability and social welfare groups and 15.1% to community or neighbourhood groups in the previous three years.


16

C4 c Percentage of residents in rural Wales that had taken part in community activity in the previous 12 months, 2007

88.1%

67.3%

44.8%

42.7%

31.7%

29.0%

23.3%

19.1%

15.3%

3.2%

At least one of these

Voted in the 2007 election for the Welsh Assembly

Signed a petition

Provided care for neighbours or friends

Done voluntary work for a local charity or other organisation

Attended a public meeting

Completed a survey from a Council or community group

Contacted their councillor

Contacted their MP or Assembly Member

Taken part in a protest or street demonstration


KEY POINTS

42.7 % of respondents to the 2007 Rural Wales survey had attended a public meeting in the previous year.


17

C4 d Parliamentary Election turnout, Brecon and Radnor, Montgomeryshire, Wales, England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, 1997 to 2010,

82.2

71.81

69.5

72.5

74.9

65.51

64.4

69.4

73.5

61.6

62.6

64.9

71.4

59.2

61.3

65.5

71.3

58.2

60.8

63.8

67.1

68

62.9

56.9

1997

2001

2005

2010

N.Ireland

Scotland

England

Wales

Montgomeryshire

Brecon and Radnor

Source: House of Commons Library: © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In the 2010 general election the turnout in the Brecon and Radnor constituency was 72.5%, and in the Montgomeryshire constituency 69.4% (Wales 64.9%).

In Powys as in Wales, England and Scotland, the election turnout rates rose from 2005, and slightly exceeded the 2001 levels.


18

ISSUE C5 Carers

NARRATIVE Informal carers, usually family members, contribute significantly to maintaining individuals with complex needs due to long term physical or mental ill health, disability or old age in the community at home. Carers themselves have specific needs, as their own health and well being can be affected by their caring responsibilities.


39.6% of all volunteers surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary services to friends, relatives or other members of their community in the previous three years. See graph C5 b

42.7% of respondents in the Rural Wales Survey 2007 said that they had provided care for neighbours or friends in the last twelve months. See graph C5 c

17% of new carers of adults in Powys were awaiting an assessment in their own right at the end of 2009/10 (Wales 4%.


19

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS C5 a Percentage of all volunteers in each categories of groups, clubs and organisations receiving services of volunteers Wales, 2005-2007

0.8%

1.8%

2.0%

2.7%

3.0%

4.2%

5.5%

7.2%

8.9%

9.5%

9.7%

13.7%

14.3%

14.3%

15.1%

17.9%

39.6%

Trade Union activity

Justice and human rights

Political

Safety, first aid

Citizens' groups

Education for adults

The environment, animals

Other

The elderly

Sports / exercise (taking part, coaching or going to watch)

Hobbies / recreations / arts / social clubs

Youth / children's activities (outside school)

Children's education / schools

Religious

Community or neighbourhood groups

Health, disability and social welfare

Friends, relatives or other members of the community

Source: WAG Living in Wales survey 2007 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

39.6% of all volunteers surveyed in Wales in 2007 had provided voluntary services to friends, relatives or other members of their community in the previous three years.


20

C5 b Percentage of residents in rural Wales that had taken part in social activity in the previous 12 months, 2007

88.1%

67.3%

44.8%

42.7%

31.7%

29.0%

23.3%

19.1%

15.3%

3.2%

At least one of these

Voted in the 2007 election for the Welsh Assembly

Signed a petition

Provided care for neighbours or friends

Done voluntary work for a local charity or other organisation

Attended a public meeting

Completed a survey from a Council or community group

Contacted their councillor

Contacted their MP or Assembly Member

Taken part in a protest or street demonstration


KEY POINTS

42.7% of respondents in the Rural Wales Survey 2007 said that they had provided care for neighbours or friends in the last twelve months.


21

C5 c Support given to carers Powys, Wales2008/09, 2009/10

44

70

47

19

4

17

Wales 2009‐2010 Powys 2009‐2010

SCA/018b: The percentage of carers of adults who had an assessment or review of their needs in their own right during the year

SCA/018c: The percentage of carers of adults who were assessed or re‐assessed in their own right during the year who were provided with a serviceSCA/018d: The percentage of new carers of adults who are awaiting an assessment in their own right at the end of the year

Source: LGDU Performance Indicators data for Social Services

KEY POINTS

17% of new carers of adults in Powys were awaiting an assessment in their own right at the end of 2009/10 (Wales 4%.


22

Footnote: issues for research

Community cohesion in Powys Narrative: Most evidence on community cohesion is available at Wales or rural Wales level. County level statistics from the Living in Wales Survey are only available for survey questions that were included for three years The new National Survey for Wales, the successor to the Living in Wales survey conducted by WAG should be able to give county level measures if resources permit large enough sample sizes. Measures: A raft of social attitude survey questions are available and the WAG Social Research Division should be consulted to ascertain what may be available at county level from the National Survey for Wales and what standard questions they would recommend for local surveys. The following are in use in England for targets set by the Department for Communities and Local Government.

1. The percentage of people who believe people from different backgrounds get on well together in their local area

2. The percentage of people who believe they belong to their area 3. The percentage of people who have meaningful interactions with people from different

backgrounds 4. The percentage of people who feel they can influence decisions in their locality

Elderly living at home Narrative: The increased proportion of elderly people in the population combined with the trend for elderly people to continue living at home longer. will further escalate pressure on voluntary and statutory agencies to provide local (‘Tier 1’) health and social care services. Measures: trends and projections for elderly single person households should in future be obtainable from the WAG Statistical Directorate, otherwise they can be calculated using the Wales Software Housegroup Cymru if staff resources allow.

Participation of hard to reach groups Narrative: Hard to reach groups such as households under stress, vulnerable people and minorities are all less likely to engage in consultations, democratic processes and community activity, and more consideration and effort is required to find out their needs. Measures: response rates from hard to reach groups in consultations and surveys may be monitored under the new WAG Equalities Improvement Framework.


23

Heritage and cultural activities Narrative: Heritage and cultural activities are indicators of community identity and pride in local area and assets, which can foster community cohesion if carried out in such a way as to welcome newcomers. Measures: possible measures could be the number of people belonging to a local history society, or taking part in local cultural activities but these would require a sample survey to be conducted.

Community resilience Narrative: Community resilience to future shocks engendered by rising prices of fuel, resource depletion, climate change and global economic crises is a major component of the concern over the long term sustainability of Powys communities. Measures: The percentage of Powys residents living in communities undertaking a Transition initiative could be calculated from ONS mid year estimates if a definitive list of the initiatives in Powys can be established and kept up to date eg by GLASU The percentage of Powys adults belonging to a Credit Union could be calculated if the three credit unions operating in Powys are able to supply membership counts. Public sector activities from which data could be derived include local asset transfers and restructuring leading to localisation of services.

ECONOMY JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT, POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/3/2011

1

CONTENTS

ISSUE E1 Local businesses and self employment 2

ISSUE E2 Tourism 7

ISSUE E3 Agriculture and food 10

Footnote: Issues for research 18

KEY






2

ISSUE E1 Local businesses and self employment

NARRATIVE With its sparsely populated upland landscape and poor connectivity with the cities of England and Wales, Powys has no large employers outside the public sector. The majority of businesses are small and there are many one person enterprises. With so many self employed in Powys a key challenge is to foster business-start-ups, to continue to support sustainable businesses and in particular to encourage growth in the green enterprise sector.

KEY POINTS See graph E1 a

There are 60 business premises and other rateable non-domestic properties per 1000 adults in Powys, the third highest proportion in Wales (Wales 43 per 1000 adults). See graph E1 b

The average rateable value of a non-domestic property in Powys is only £11,222, the lowest in Wales (Wales average £16,198). See graph E1 c

The birth rate of new enterprises in Powys was just 8% of all enterprises in 2008, which was the second lowest rate amongst all 22 of the Welsh Unitary Authorities, (Wales 10%). See graph E1 d

Powys has higher rates of self employment across all main sectors than elsewhere in Wales. For example, self employment in Powys in manufacturing and in distribution, hotels and restaurants is twice as high as the Welsh average.


3

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS E1 a Count of rateable non-domestic properties per 1000 adults, Welsh Unitary Authorities, 2010

25.1

32.7

33.7

34.1

36.1

36.2

36.5

36.9

38.6

38.6 40.9

41.3

41.6 45.6

46.3

47.0 49.8 53.5

53.8 60.1 66.6 71.5rateable non‐domestic properties per 1000 adults aged 16+

Source Valuation Office Agency, Rateable values by Billing Authority Q4 2010

KEY POINTS

There are 60 business premises and other rateable non-domestic properties per 1000 adults in Powys, the third highest proportion in Wales (Wales 43 per 1000 adults).


4

E1 b Average rateable value of non-domestic properties, Welsh Unitary Authorities, 2010

49500

41,900

37,700

29,900

29,700

28,000

26,500

26,300

25,500

25,300

23,300

21,100

19,500

18,600

17,300

16,100

16,100

15,500

14,800

14,300

14,200

11,222

2010 Average RV (£)

Source Valuation Office Agency, Rateable values by Billing Authority Q4 2010

KEY POINTS

The average rateable value of a non-domestic property in Powys is only £11,222, the lowest in Wales (Wales average £16,198).


5

E1 c Business birth rates, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2008

10.3%9.2% 8.9% 8.9%

8.0%

13.4%12.4%

11.0% 10.9%10.1%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Powys: new business births as % of all businessesWales: new business births as % of all businesses

Source ONS Business Demography © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The birth rate of new enterprises in Powys was just 8% of all enterprises in 2008, which was the second lowest rate amongst all 22 of the Welsh Unitary Authorities, (Wales 10%).


6

E1 d Percentage of workforce who are self employed by sector; Powys and Wales, 2009/10

71%

33%

19%

18%

11%

6%

79%

50%

34%

31%

22%

12%

Agriculture & fishing

Construction

Other services

Banking, finance & insurance etc

Distribution, hotels & restaurants

ManufacturingPowys: self employment rates in selected sectors: 2009/2010

Wales: self employment rates in selected sectors: 2009/2010

Source ONS Annual Population Survey 2009/10 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Powys has higher rates of self employment across all main sectors than elsewhere in Wales. For example, self employment in Powys in manufacturing and in distribution, hotels and restaurants is twice as high as the Welsh average.


7

ISSUE E2 Tourism

NARRATIVE Tourism is a key component of the Powys economy, capitalising on the beauty, remoteness and tranquillity of the landscape, the cultural, agricultural and built heritage and outdoor leisure opportunities. However tourism is associated with low wages, seasonal and casual employment and of itself does not produce a thriving economy. Tourism is also vulnerable to rising transport costs while the economic downturn is likely to impact on tourist choices. In addition, countryside access problems such as the foot and mouth epidemic of 2001 are disastrous for tourism businesses. There is a need to continue promoting high added-value tourism activities and to encourage resilience and diversification in tourism-based enterprises.


The numbers of day visitors to Powys dropped from 3.5 million in 2005 to 3.12 million in 2009.

The numbers of visitor nights spent in non-serviced accommodation in Powys increased from 5.5 million in 2005 to 6.6 million in 2008, then decreased to 6.3 million in 2009. See graph E2 b

The annual visitor spend in all categories increased from £527.8 million in 2005 to £648.2 million in 2008, then decreased to £625.5 million in 2009.


8


E2 a Estimated number of day visitors and visitor nights per year, Powys, 2005 to 2009

0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.50.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7

5.5 5.8 6.1 6.6 6.3

3.5 3.43.4

3.23.1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Day Visitors, millions

Visitor nights: Non‐Serviced Accommodation , millions

Visitor nights: Serviced Accommodation , millions

Source: Powys CC STEAM tourism model, © Powys CC

KEY POINTS

The numbers of day visitors to Powys dropped from 3.5 million in 2005 to 3.12 million in 2009.

The numbers of visitor nights spent in non-serviced accommodation in Powys increased from 5.5 million in 2005 to 6.6 million in 2008, then decreased to 6.3 million in 2009.


9

E2 b Estimated annual visitor spend by broad category, Powys, 2005 -2009

33 33 37 40 3860 61 69 74 68

75 77 87 93 89

73 7584 90 86

96 98110

117111

132 137

154163

15559 61

6872

69

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

VAT £m

Indirect Expenditure £m

Food and drink £m

Shopping £m

Transport £m

Accommodation £m

Recreation £m

Source: Powys CC STEAM tourism model, © Powys CC

KEY POINTS

The annual visitor spend in all categories increased from £527.8 million in 2005 to £648.2 million in 2008, then decreased to £625.5 million in 2009.


10

ISSUE E3 Agriculture and food

NARRATIVE Agriculture continues to be the largest primary production industry in Powys, predominated by small family-run upland sheep farms. Farming and forestry have shaped the landscape, culture and people of Powys for centuries although much of the land is classified as disadvantaged. The nature of agriculture in the county has changed dramatically over the past century due to factors such as the rural exodus from the 1900’s to the 1970’s, the WWII mechanisation of Welsh farming and the subsidies brought in under the European Common Agricultural Policy from the 1950’s to date. Compared with a century ago the Powys countryside is more sparsely populated, with fewer farms and fewer agricultural jobs, while farm diversification into activities such as tourism has become common place. However, new drivers including

o fossil fuel price rises o biomass and carbon sequestration markets o growing consumer demand for locally grown food o innovations in land-use such as community-supported agriculture o and national concerns about food security

have the potential to reinvigorate the small farm economy in the coming decade, with re-localised labour force and markets for their produce.


11


The number of agricultural holdings in Powys has declined from 4,986 in 2002 to 4,783 in 2009 although this still represents a fifth of the holdings in Wales. See graph E3 b

The number of people engaged in work on agricultural holdings in Powys increased slightly from 11,700 in 2002 to 12,100 in 2009, mainly due to an increase in the number of regular workers (including salaried managers).

the ratio of full time to part-time farmers, partners and directors in Powys has reduced from 55:45 in 2002 to 50:50 in 2009 while the total number of has fluctuated around 9000. See graph E3 c

The area of land farmed in Powys increased from 378 thousand hectares in 2002 to 389 thousand hectares in 2009, over a quarter of the 1.489 million hectares of farmed land in Wales in 2009. See graph E3 d

In total grassland, including permanent pasture, rough grazing and new grassland comprises more than nine tenths of the farmed land in Powys. See graph E3 e

Farm land used for crops and agriculture has increased by a third from 11 thousand hectares in 2002 to 13.5 thousand hectares in 2009. Farm woodland has increased by a half from 10 thousand hectares in 2002 to 15 thousand hectares in 2009. See graph E3 f

The total number of sheep and lambs on Powys farm land has declined from 3.7 million in 2002 to 3.2 million in 2009.

The number of poultry has fluctuated; there were 1.8 million in 2002 and 1.6 million in 2009, with a peak of 2.4 million in 2003.

The number of cattle and calves has also fluctuated with a quarter of a million in 2006, since when it declined to 0.2 million in 2009.


12

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS E3 a Number of active Agricultural Holdings by Welsh region, 2002-2009

4,986 4,879 4,842 4,805 4,774 4,915 4,855 4,783

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pembrokeshire

Ceredigion

North West

North East

South

Carmarthenshire

Powys

Source: Welsh Agricultural Survey 2002-2009

KEY POINTS

The number of agricultural holdings in Powys has declined from 4,986 in 2002 to 4,783 in 2009 although this still represents a fifth of the holdings in Wales.


13

E3 b Number of people employed in farming in Powys, 2002 to 2009

4560

4614

1823

1141

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Farmers, partners, directors (inc spouses): full timeFarmers, partners, directors (inc spouses): part‐timeRegular workers (inc salaried managers)

Casual & gang labour


KEY POINTS

The number of people engaged in work on agricultural holdings in Powys increased slightly from 11,700 in 2002 to 12,100 in 2009, mainly due to an increase in the number of regular workers (including salaried managers).

the ratio of full time to part-time farmers, partners and directors in Powys has reduced from 55:45 in 2002 to 50:50 in 2009 while the total number of has fluctuated around 9000.


14

E3 c Farmed land area (hectares) by Welsh region, 2002-2009

375,116

376,587

376,087

375,694

390,506

383,403

381,472

389,064

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Pembrokeshire

Ceredigion

North West

North East

South

Carmarthenshire

Powys


KEY POINTS

The area of land farmed in Powys increased from 378 thousand hectares in 2002 to 389 thousand hectares in 2009, over a quarter of the 1.489 million hectares of farmed land in Wales in 2009.


15

E3 d Farmed land area (hectares) by broad use, Powys 2002 to 2009

350,699

352,859

347,489

350,235

364,164

351,922

351,428

357,142

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Other land

crops and horticulture

farm woodland

grass lands


KEY POINTS

In total grassland, including permanent pasture, rough grazing and new grassland comprises more than nine tenths of the farmed land in Powys.


16

E3 e Non-grassland farmed land area (hectares), Powys 2002 to 2009

10,647

10,260

11,019

10,270

9,945

10,338

11,912

13,546

10,183

8,882

10,225

11,386

12,836

17,358

14,792

15,037

3,526

4,585

7,354

3,803

3,561

3,786

3,340

3,339

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

crops and horticulture farm woodland Other land


KEY POINTS

Farm land used for crops and agriculture has increased by a third from 11 thousand hectares in 2002 to 13.5 thousand hectares in 2009. Farm woodland has increased by a half from 10 thousand hectares in 2002 to 15 thousand hectares in 2009.


17

E3 f Livestock counts (Sheep, poultry, and cattle) in Powys, 2002-2009

3,767,079

3,715,707

3,678,681

3,634,962

3,597,209

3,485,449

3,326,965

3,234,449

1,788,777

2,483,386

1,907,580

1,904,656

2,007,239

1,399,538

1,462,457

1,598,040

230,744

247,699

245,897

239,001

252,500

214,423

206,331

205,951

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

All sheep and lambs All poultry All cattle and calves


KEY POINTS

The total number of sheep and lambs on Powys farm land has declined from 3.7 million in 2002 to 3.2 million in 2009.

The number of poultry has fluctuated; there were 1.8 million in 2002 and 1.6 million in 2009, with a peak of 2.4 million in 2003.

The number of cattle and calves has also fluctuated with a quarter of a million in 2006, since when it declined to 0.2 million in 2009.


Footnote: Issues for research

Sustainable businesses Narrative: A key challenge is to encourage the green enterprise sector. Measure: Number of Powys businesses in the green enterprise sector.

Sustainable procurement Narrative: As the largest employers and businesses in Powys, the public sector is fundamental to the economy of the county. In procuring goods and services, the public sector has the opportunity to consider longer term public interest concerns as well as short term value for money. Procurement decisions can impact on work opportunities for local people, on community enterprises, and on the natural environment. Measure: Value of and percentage by value of goods and services procured within county by Powys public sector.

Internet Access Narrative: High speed broadband allows local businesses to reach global markets, new knowledge-based enterprises to thrive, communities to gain in vigour and individuals to overcome isolation and to gain access to work, learning and social networks. Measure: Percentage and number of businesses and households in areas not covered by high speed broad band.

EDUCATION TRAINING AND SKILLS JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT Powys 2010-2011 Date 31/03/11

1

CONTENTS

ISSUE ETR1 Educational attainment and qualifications ..............................2

ISSUE ETR2 Education and training opportunities ....................................10

ISSUE ETR3 Library services ....................................................................16

ISSUE ETR4 School pupil support .............................................................19

Footnote: Issues for research.....................................................................24

KEY






2

ISSUE ETR1 Educational attainment and qualifications

NARRATIVE Educational attainment in schools boosts children and young people’s prospects for future employment and generally provides a wider range of life opportunities . There is a need to reduce the persistent gap in gender attainment as well as some concern about emerging decline in early years attainment. Some children leave education having not achieved their maximum potential. School-leavers and adults without qualifications are at a severe disadvantage in the labour market and although it is possible to do well without qualifications, it is not easy.

KEY POINTS See graph ETR1 a

78.5% of boys and 85.8% of girls attained the core subject indicator at Key Stage 1 in Powys in 2010 (Wales 77.4% boys, 86.0% girls).

Attainment levels at Key Stage 1 in Powys have fluctuated over the past decade, for girls between 89.0% in 2000 and 84.7% in 2003, and for boys the between 81% in 2002 and 76.2% in 2009.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key stage 1 has persisted, with fluctuation, over the decade in both Powys and Wales. See graph ETR1 b

76.4% of boys and 82.6% of girls attained the Core Subject Indicator at Key stage 2 in Powys in 2010. (Wales 74.4% boys, 82.2% girls).

Attainment levels have risen over the decade amongst Key Stage 2 pupils in Powys, with some fluctuation around a high point of 82.7% in 2008 for girls.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key Stage 2 has persisted, with fluctuation, over the decade in both Powys and Wales.


3

See graph ETR1 c

70.9% of boys and 77.1% of girls attained the Core Subject Indicator at Key stage 3 in Powys in 2010. (Wales 58.7% boys, 69.0% girls)

Attainment levels have risen generally over the decade amongst Key Stage 3 pupils in Powys.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key Stage 3 has persisted over the decade in both Powys and Wales, although in Powys the gap has reduced from 14.8 % points in 2008 to just 6.2% in 2010. See graph ETR1 d

59.9% of boys and 75.3% of girls achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*-C in Powys in 2008/09. (Wales 51.2% boys, 63.2% girls)

GCSE students’ attainment levels in Powys and Wales have been rising generally, with some fluctuation, for more than a decade.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls in GCSEs has persisted for more than a decade in both Powys and Wales; in Powys the gap has increased from 7.6 percentage points in 2006/07 to 15.4 percentage points in 2008/09.


4


ETR1 a Percentage of pupils achieving ‘Core Subject Indicator1’ at Key Stage 1, by gender, Powys, Wales,1999 to 2010

77.7 76.981.2 80.1 79.7 76.9 77.1 79.1 80.1 79.6

76.2 78.5

86.3 89.0 87.8 86.7 84.7 86.9 86.4 88.184.8 86.7 85.1 85.8

8.612.1

6.6 6.6 5.010.0 9.3 9.0

4.7 7.1 8.9 7.3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Powys: % boys achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

Powys: % girls achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

Powys: gender gap between % of boys and girls achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

73.4 75.2 76.6 76.5 75.6 75.9 76.4 76.4 76.1 76.6 77.2 77.482.5 85.0 85.3 84.4 83.5 84.7 85.6 85.0 84.4 85.0 85.2 86.0

9.1 9.8 8.7 7.9 7.9 8.8 9.2 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.0 8.6

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Wales: % boys achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

Wales: % girls achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

Wales: gender gap, % achieving Core Subject Indicator at KS1

Source: WAG StatsWales School Statistics © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

78.5% of boys and 85.8% of girls attained the core subject indicator at Key Stage 1 in Powys in 2010 (Wales 77.4% boys, 86.0% girls).

Attainment levels at Key Stage 1 in Powys have fluctuated over the past decade, for girls between 89.0% in 2000 and 84.7% in 2003, and for boys the between 81% in 2002 and 76.2% in 2009.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key stage 1 has persisted, with fluctuation, over the decade in both Powys and Wales.

1 The core subject indicator at Key Stage 1 represents the percentage of pupils achieving level 2 or above in English or Welsh (first language), Mathematics and Science in combination.


5

ETR1 b Percentage of pupils achieving ‘Core Subject Indicator2’ at Key Stage 2, by gender, Powys, Wales,1999 to 2010

61.665.5 68.4 69.4 69.1 66.6

71.5 74.1 74.2 71.9 70.976.4

72.4 75.2 76.7 75.379.0 79.8 79.8 82.7 80.8 81.5 80.2 82.6

10.8 9.7 8.3 5.99.9

13.28.3 8.6 6.6

9.6 9.36.2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010




57.5 59.263.8 66.1 66.8 67.7 70.3 70.1 70.3 71.6 72.6 74.4

64.968.7

72.6 73.2 74.6 76.4 78.3 78.6 78.2 79.6 81.7 82.2

7.4 9.5 8.8 7.1 7.8 8.7 8.0 8.5 7.9 8.0 9.1 7.8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010





KEY POINTS

76.4% of boys and 82.6% of girls attained the Core Subject Indicator at Key stage 2 in Powys in 2010. (Wales 74.4% boys, 82.2% girls).

Attainment levels have risen over the decade amongst Key Stage 2 pupils in Powys, with some fluctuation around a high point of 82.7% in 2008 for girls.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key Stage 2 has persisted, with fluctuation, over the decade in both Powys and Wales.



6

ETR1 c Percentage of pupils achieving Core Subject Indicator3 at Key Stage 3, by gender, Powys, Wales,1999 to 2010

51.0 52.856.3 55.0 54.8

58.261.2 62.5 61.6

57.764.9

70.9

61.067.1 66.5

71.8 69.873.8

70.476.8

72.8 72.5 74.6 77.1

10.014.3

10.216.8 15.0 15.6

9.214.3

11.214.8

9.76.2

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010




43.7 44.8 46.3 48.0 49.6 51.7 53.6 53.2 52.5 54.8 56.7 58.7

51.4 53.6 55.5 57.3 59.562.3 63.2 63.4 61.2

64.5 66.269.0

7.7 8.8 9.2 9.3 9.9 10.6 9.6 10.2 8.7 9.7 9.5 10.3

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010





KEY POINTS

70.9% of boys and 77.1% of girls attained the Core Subject Indicator at Key stage 3 in Powys in 2010. (Wales 58.7% boys, 69.0% girls)

Attainment levels have risen generally over the decade amongst Key Stage 3 pupils in Powys.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls at Key Stage 3 has persisted over the decade in both Powys and Wales, although in Powys the gap has reduced from 14.8 % points in 2008 to just 6.2% in 2010.



7

ETR1 d Percentage of pupils aged 15 achieving 5 or more GCSEs A*-C; by gender, Powys, Wales 1995 to 2009

40.744.6 46.4 47.4 47.5

51.8 52.656.6

52.4 52.156.2 58.4 60.1 59.9

55.258.4

63.5 63.0 63.367.0 67.7 68.3 68.4 69.1 68.3 66.0

70.975.3

14.5 13.817.1 15.5 15.8 15.2 15.1

11.716.1 17.0

12.17.6

10.815.4

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

Powys: % of boys aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C

Powys: % of girls aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C

Powys: gender gap between % of boys and girls aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C

36.8 38.7 40.3 42.1 43.4 44.7 44.8 45.5 46.2 46.3 48.1 49.0 50.4 51.246.7 49.1 51.8 53.1 54.9 55.0 56.4 56.8 56.9 58.3 59.7 59.5 61.4 63.2

9.9 10.4 11.5 11.1 11.5 10.3 11.6 11.3 10.7 12.0 11.6 10.5 11.0 12.0

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

Wales: % of boys aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C

Wales: % of girls aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C

Wales: gender gap between % of boys and girls aged 15 who achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*‐C


KEY POINTS

59.9% of boys and 75.3% of girls achieved 5 or more GCSEs A*-C in Powys in 2008/09. (Wales 51.2% boys, 63.2% girls)

GCSE students’ attainment levels in Powys and Wales have been rising generally, with some fluctuation, for more than a decade.

The gender gap between the attainment of boys and girls in GCSEs has persisted for more than a decade in both Powys and Wales; in Powys the gap has increased from 7.6 percentage points in 2006/07 to 15.4 percentage points in 2008/09.


8

ETR1 e Percentages of pupils aged 15 leaving education without qualifications, by gender, Powys, Wales, 2004/05 to 2008/09

2.6

2.4

2.1

1.9

1

1.81.7

1.4

1.2

0.8

2.6

1.4

1

0.4

0

1.11.2

0.5

0.1

0.3

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % pupils aged 15 who left education with no qualifications: Boys

Wales: % pupils aged 15 who left education with no qualifications: Girls

Powys: % pupils aged 15 who left education with no qualifications: Boys

Powys: % pupils aged 15 who left education with no qualifications: Girls

Source: WAG School Statistics Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of boys aged 15 who left school in Powys with no qualifications fell from 2.6% in 2004/05 to 0% in 2008/09 (Wales 2.6% in 2004/05, 1% in 2008/09).

The percentage of girls aged 15 who left school in Powys with no qualifications fell from 1.1% in 2004/05 to 0.3% in 2008/09 (Wales 1.8% in 2004/05, 0.8% in 2008/09).


9

ETR1 f Percentage of working age population with no qualifications, Powys, Wales 2005 to 2009

17.316.5

17.0

15.5

12.9

16.7 16.415.5 15.3

14.8

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys: % aged 16‐64 that have no qualifications

Wales: % aged 16‐64 that have no qualifications

Source: ONS NOMIS: Annual Population survey Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys residents aged 16 to 64 with no qualifications fell from 17.3% in 2005 to 12.9% in 2009, at which point it dropped below the Welsh percentage for the first time in five years (Wales 16.7% in 2005 14.8% in 2009).


10

ISSUE ETR2 Education and training opportunities

NARRATIVE A broad range of education opportunities is needed to enable all people to reach their full potential.


The percentage of Year 11 Powys school leavers known not to be in education, employment or training (NEETs) has fluctuated but declined overall from 4.4% in 2004 to 2.1% in 2009, (Wales 7.0% in 2004 5.7% in 2009). See graph ETR2 b

The percentage of Powys secondary school Year 7-11 pupils (Year 7-11) taught Welsh as a first language has increased from 10.2% in 2003/04 to 11.2% in 2009/10, (Wales14.6% in 2003/04, 16.5% in 2009/10). See graph ETR2 c

The percentage of working age adults in Powys that had received job related training in the last 13 weeks increased slightly from 25.0% in 2007 to 27.7% in 2009 (Wales decreased from 31.5% in 2007 to 30% in 2009). See graph ETR2d

8% of the Powys population aged 16 and over participated in learning in 2007/08, (Wales 9.9%). This included sixth form, further education and work-based learning, but excluded higher education.

1.2% of the Powys population aged 16 and over participated in work-based learning in 2007/08, (Wales 1.3%). See graph ETR2 e

66.6% of the Powys population aged 16 to 19 participated in learning in 2007/08, (Wales 73.0%). This included sixth form, further education and work-based learning, but excluded higher education.

26.2% of the Powys population aged 16 to 19 participated in sixth form education in 2007/08 (Wales 23.7%)


11


ETR2 a Percentage of Year 11 school leavers known not to be in education, employment or training, (NEETs) Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

7.0 6.86.4

6.9 7.1

5.7

4.44.8

3.0

5.3

3.0

2.1

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wales: year 11 leavers: % NEET Powys: year 11 leavers: % NEET

Source: WAG ELLS, statsWales Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Year 11 Powys school leavers known not to be in education, employment or training (NEETs) has fluctuated but declined overall from 4.4% in 2004 to 2.1% in 2009, (Wales 7.0% in 2004 5.7% in 2009).


12

ETR2 b Percentage of secondary school pupils, years 7-11, taught Welsh as a first language, Powys and Wales, 2003/04 to 2009/10

10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.811.2 11.2

14.6 14.815.2 15.4 15.7 16.0

16.5

03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10

Powys: % pupils in year groups 7‐11 taught Welsh as a first language

Wales: % pupils in year groups 7‐11 taught Welsh as a first language

Source: WAG ELLS1 Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys secondary school Year 7-11 pupils (Year 7-11) taught Welsh as a first language has increased from 10.2% in 2003/04 to 11.2% in 2009/10, (Wales14.6% in 2003/04, 16.5% in 2009/10).


13

ETR2 c Percentage of working age adults in employment that had received job related training in the last 13 weeks, Powys and Wales, 2007 to 2009

25.0

29.327.7

31.5 31.229.9

2007 2008 2009

Powys: % working age adults in employment received job related training in last 13 weeks

Wales: % working age adults in employment received job related training in last 13 weeks

Source: WAG Statswales: ONS Annual Population Survey Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of working age adults in Powys that had received job related training in the last 13 weeks increased slightly from 25.0% in 2007 to 27.7% in 2009 (Wales decreased from 31.5% in 2007 to 30% in 2009).


14

ETR2 d Adult learners aged 16 and over; Wales, Powys, 2007/08

1.3%

9.9%

1.2%

8.0%

Work‐Based Learners as % of pop. aged 16+

Post‐16 learners (excluding HE level) as % of pop. aged 16+

Wales: 2007/08 Powys: 2007/08

Source: WAG LLWR (Lifelong Learning Wales Record) crown copyright

KEY POINTS

8% of the Powys population aged 16 and over participated in learning in 2007/08, (Wales 9.9%). This included sixth form, further education and work-based learning, but excluded higher education.

1.2% of the Powys population aged 16 and over participated in work-based learning in 2007/08, (Wales 1.3%).


15

ETR2 e 16 to 19 year old learners, Powys, Wales; 2007/08

23.7%

41.5%

73.0%

26.2%33.6%

66.6%

Sixth form (aged under 20) as % of pop. aged 16‐19

FE learners (aged under 20, excludes sixth form) as

% of pop. aged 16‐19

Post‐16 learners aged under 20 (excluding HE level) as % of pop. aged

16‐19

Wales: 2007/08 Powys: 2007/08

Source: WAG LLWR (Lifelong Learning Wales Record) crown copyright

KEY POINTS

66.6% of the Powys population aged 16 to 19 participated in learning in 2007/08, (Wales 73.0%). This included sixth form, further education and work-based learning, but excluded higher education.

26.2% of the Powys population aged 16 to 19 participated in sixth form education in 2007/08 (Wales 23.7%)


16

ISSUE ETR3 Library services

NARRATIVE Libraries give people free access to books, information and learning resources particularly important to households on low income. They also encourage life long learning and self-improvement by providing quiet study areas and access to multimedia equipment and the internet. Not all of these functions can be provided by mobile libraries.


The Access to Services domain of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2008, showed that it took on average 47 minutes to reach a library on foot or by bus from a Powys residence (Wales average 23 minutes). See graph ETR3 b

The Access to Services domain of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2008 showed that in most of rural Powys it took more than an hour on average to reach a library on foot or by pubic transport, and that in Rhiwcynon, Llanbrynmair & Banwy, Blaen Hafren and Yscir it took more than 2 hours (Wales average 23 minutes).


17

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Average time (mins.) to reach libraryon foot or by bus, WIMD 2008

120 to 150

60 to 120

30 to 60

15 to 30

0 to 15

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS ETR3 a Average time in minutes to reach a library on foot or by bus, Welsh Unitary Authorities, 2008 Source: WAG, WIMD 2008 Access to Services domain © crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The Access to Services domain of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2008, showed that it took on average 47 minutes to reach a library on foot or by bus from a Powys residence (Wales average 23 minutes).


18

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Average time (mins.) to reach libraryon foot or by bus, WIMD 2008

120 to 150

60 to 120

30 to 60

15 to 30

0 to 15

ETR3 b Average time in minutes to reach a library on foot or by bus, Powys Lower Super Output Areas 2008 Source: WAG WIMD 2008 Access to Services domain © crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The Access to Services domain of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2008 showed that in most of rural Powys it took more than an hour on average to reach a library on foot or by pubic transport, and that in Rhiwcynon, Llanbrynmair & Banwy, Blaen Hafren and Yscir it took more than 2 hours (Wales average 23 minutes).


19

ISSUE ETR4 School pupil support

NARRATIVE Schools cannot provide all the support that some students require and this can result in some pupils not reaching their full potential.


The rate of permanent exclusions from Powys secondary schools has fallen from 26 per 10,000 pupils aged 11 to 15 in 2004/05 to 17 per 10,000 in 2008/09), but has exceeded the overall Welsh rate since 2004/05 (Wales 21 per 10,000 in 2004/05, 11 per 10,000 in 2008/09). See graph ETR4 b

The percentage of Powys nursery and primary school pupils with a Special Educational Needs statement fluctuated from 2.8% in 1998/99 returning to a peak of 2.8% in 2005/06 and then fell to 1.2% in 2009/10 (Wales 2.1% in 1998/99 to 1.7% in 2009/10). See graph ETR4 c

The percentage of Powys secondary school pupils with a Special Educational Needs statement rose from 4.4% in 1998/99 to 4.6% in 2001/02 then fell to 3.2% in 2009/10 (Wales 3.3% in 1998/99, 2.7% in 2009/10). See graph ETR4 d

The rate of unauthorised absences by pupils of compulsory school age in Powys maintained secondary and special schools has fluctuated from 0.7% of half day sessions in 2002/03 to 1% in 2006/07 then declined to 0.4% in 2009/10. (Wales 1.6% in 2002/03, rising to 1.8% in 2006/7 and falling, back to 1.6% in 2009/10).


20


ETR4 a Permanent exclusions from maintained secondary schools per 10,000 pupils on roll aged 11 to 15 Powys and Wales, 2002/03 to 2008/09

19 19

21 21

14

1211

15

19

26 26

23

21

17

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: Permanent exclusions from maintained secondary schools per 10,000 pupils on roll aged 11 to 15Powys: Permanent exclusions from maintained secondary schools per 10,000 pupils on roll aged 11 to 15

Source: WAG Pupil Level Annual School Census (PLASC) © Crown Copyright

The rate of permanent exclusions from Powys secondary schools has fallen from 26 per 10,000 pupils aged 11 to 15 in 2004/05 to 17 per 10,000 in 2008/09), but has exceeded the overall Welsh rate since 2004/05 (Wales 21 per 10,000 in 2004/05, 11 per 10,000 in 2008/09).


21

ETR4 b Percentage of nursery/primary school pupils with statements of special educational need: Powys and Wales, 1998/99 to 2009/10

2.8%2.6%

2.7% 2.6%2.4%

2.5%2.7% 2.8%

2.4%

2.1%

1.5%

1.2%

2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0%1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7%

Powys: % of pupils in Nursery/Primary schools with SEN statements

Wales: % of pupils in Nursery/Primary schools with SEN statements


The percentage of Powys nursery and primary school pupils with a Special Educational Needs statement fluctuated from 2.8% in 1998/99 returning to a peak of 2.8% in 2005/06 and then fell to 1.2% in 2009/10 (Wales 2.1% in 1998/99 to 1.7% in 2009/10).


22

ETR4 c Percentage of secondary school pupils with a Special Educational Needs statement Powys and Wales, 1998/99 to 2009/10

4.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

4.1% 4.1%

3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%3.4%

3.2%3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1%

2.9% 2.9%2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

Powys: % of pupils in Secondary Schools with SEN statements

Wales: % of pupils in Secondary Schools with SEN statements


The percentage of Powys secondary school pupils with a Special Educational Needs statement rose from 4.4% in 1998/99 to 4.6% in 2001/02 then fell to 3.2% in 2009/10 (Wales 3.3% in 1998/99, 2.7% in 2009/10).


23

ETR4 d Percentage of half day sessions missed due to unauthorised absences by pupils of compulsory school age in maintained secondary and special schools, Powys and Wales, 2002/03 to 2009/10

1.61.7 1.7 1.7

1.8 1.81.7

1.6

0.7

1.00.9

0.8

1.0 1.0

0.8

0.4

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Wales: % of half‐day sessions missed due to unauthorised absences by pupils of compulsory school age in maintained secondary and special schools

Powys: % of half‐day sessions missed due to unauthorised absences by pupils of compulsory school age in maintained secondary and special schools

Source: WAG School Statistics © Crown Copyright

The rate of unauthorised absences by pupils of compulsory school age in Powys maintained secondary and special schools has fluctuated from 0.7% of half day sessions in 2002/03 to 1% in 2006/07 then declined to 0.4% in 2009/10. (Wales 1.6% in 2002/03, rising to 1.8% in 2006/7 and falling, back to 1.6% in 2009/10).


24


Issue: Attainment of vulnerable groups Narrative: see Issue ETR1 Educational attainment and qualifications above. Measures: Proposed measures as yet to be sourced, include the attainment at key stages 1 to 4 and A-Level of the following groups

o looked after children o ethnic minorities o gypsy/travellers o young people with additional learning needs o those educated other than at school

Issue: Library usage Narrative: The number of people in Wales accessing libraries is on the increase according to recent reports Measures: library usage statistics by county can be purchased from CIPFA (by corporate subscription). Otherwise, Powys statistics available from county administrative databases

Issue: School pupil support Narrative: the 14-19 Learning Pathways, pupil referral units and the provision of non-formal or informal education are important for the young people for whom formal education routes are insufficient Measures: as yet to be sourced, may be available from administrative databases.

FAMILY JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/03/2011

1

CONTENTS

ISSUE F1 Vulnerable families ......................................................................2

ISSUE F2 Domestic abuse.........................................................................10

ISSUE F3 Vulnerable babies......................................................................15

ISSUE F4 Looked-after children.................................................................18

Footnote: issues for research .....................................................................21

KEY






2

ISSUE F1 Vulnerable families

NARRATIVE As divorce rates and the number of lone parent families have risen over past decades, increasing numbers of children and young people are living in fragmented families. Lone parent households in particular tend to have lower incomes and place greater demands on health and social care services. However, the biggest issue affecting children is compromised parenting which can occur in any family structure.

KEY POINTS See graph F1 a

The estimated number of Powys children living in lone parent households has increased from 2,500 in 1991 to 5,200 in 2007. See graph F1 b

The estimated percentage of Powys households with children that had just one adult rose from 11% in 1991 to 21% in 2007 (Wales 14% in 1991, 27% in 2007). See graph F1 c

The first Census of Children in Need in Wales, (CIN census 2010), showed that for every 10,000 children aged 0 to 17 in Powys there were 60 children in need due to their family being in acute distress (Wales 24 per 10,000 children)

The CIN census 2010 showed that there were 745 children in need in Powys in total in 2010, equivalent to 280 children in need for every 10,000 children aged 0 to 17, (Wales 300 per 10,000 children). See graph F1 d

36% of children in need in Powys in 2010 were suffering from abuse or neglect, (Wales 47%).

22% of children in need in Powys in 2010 were in families in acute distress, (Wales 8%). See graph F1 e

The number of homeless families with dependent children has fluctuated from 31 in the 2nd quarter of 2002 to 27 in the 2nd quarter of 2010, with a peak of 61 in the third quarter of 2004.


3

See graph F1 f

The number of children involved per month in Powys family cases taken to Multi Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARAC) has fluctuated between 0 in May 2008 and 12 in April 2010, peaking at 31 in August 2009.

The average number of children involved in MARAC cases was 5.6 per month in the year ending April 2009, rising to 11.4 per month in the year ending April 2010.


4

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS F1 a Number of children in ‘lone parent’ households, Powys 1991- 2007

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Powys: number of children in 5+ person (1 adult, 4+ children) HH

Powys: number of children in 4 person (1 adult, 3 children) HH

Powys: number of children in 3 person (1 adult, 2 children) HH

Powys: number of children in 2 person (1 adult, 1 child) HH

Source: WAG Household Estimates © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The estimated number of Powys children living in lone parent households has increased from 2,500 in 1991 to 5,200 in 2007.


5

F1 b Estimated % of single adult households among households with children; Powys, Wales, 1991 to 2007

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Powys: 2 person (1 adult, 1 child)Powys: 3 person (1 adult, 2 children)Powys: 4 person (1 adult, 3 children)Powys: 5+ person (1 adult, 4+ children)Wales: 1 adult , 1+ children

Source: WAG Household Estimates © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The estimated percentage of Powys households with children that had just one adult rose from 11% in 1991 to 21% in 2007 (Wales 14% in 1991, 27% in 2007).


6

F1 c Children in need per 10,000 children aged 0-17, by category of need; Powys, Wales, 2010

140101

71

69

2460

3721

2928

Wales: no. of children in each need category per 10,000

children aged 0‐17

Powys: no. of children in each need category per 10,000

children aged 0‐17

Other

Family dysfunction

Family in acute stress

Child's disability or illness

Abuse or neglect

Source: WAG Children in Need (CIN) Census 2010 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The first Census of Children in Need in Wales, (CIN census 2010), showed that for every 10,000 children aged 0 to 17 in Powys there were 60 children in need due to their family being in acute distress (Wales 24 per 10,000 children)

The CIN census 2010 showed that there were 745 children in need in Powys in total in 2010, equivalent to 280 children in need for every 10,000 children aged 0 to 17, (Wales 300 per 10,000 children).


7

F1 d Percentages of children in need by category of need, Powys, Wales, 2010

Abuse or neglect36%

Child's disability or illness25%

Family in acute stress

22%

Family dysfunction

7% Other10%

Powys

Abuse or neglect46%Child's

disability or illness24%

Family in acute stress8%

Family dysfunction

12%Other10%

Wales

Source: WAG Children in Need (CIN) Census 2010 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

36% of children in need in Powys in 2010 were suffering from abuse or neglect, (Wales 47%).

22% of children in need in Powys in 2010 were in families in acute distress, (Wales 8%).


8

F1 e Quarterly counts of homeless families with dependent children that were eligible for assistance; Powys Q2-2002 to Q2-2010

3128

31

51

36

50

60

5052

61

51

41

33

41

25

11

16

33

12

30

17 18

23 22

30 30

19

14 1416

19

9

27

2002 Q2

2002 Q3

2002 Q4

2003 Q1

2003 Q2

2003 Q3

2003 Q4

2004 Q1

2004 Q2

2004 Q3

2004 Q4

2005 Q1

2005 Q2

2005 Q3

2005 Q4

2006 Q1

2006 Q2

2006 Q3

2006 Q4

2007 Q1

2007 Q2

2007 Q3

2007 Q4

2008 Q1

2008 Q2

2008 Q3

2008 Q4

2009 Q1

2009 Q2

2009 Q3

2009 Q4

2010 Q1

2010 Q2

Powys: quarterly counts of eligible homeless households with dependent children

Source: WAG and LGDU, Homelessness statistics © Crown Copyright Note: eligibility under part VII of the Housing Act 1996

KEY POINTS

The number of homeless families with dependent children has fluctuated from 31 in the 2nd quarter of 2002 to 27 in the 2nd quarter of 2010, with a peak of 61 in the third quarter of 2004.


9

F1 f Number of children in family cases taken to Multi Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARAC) Powys May 2008 to April 2010

14

5

9

1

9 9

4 4

12

3

18

3

31

9

1312

19

89

12

May‐08

Jun‐08

Jul‐08

Aug‐08

Sep‐08

Oct‐08

Nov‐08

Dec‐08

Jan‐09

Feb‐09

Mar‐09

Apr‐09

May‐09

Jun‐09

Jul‐09

Aug‐09

Sep‐09

Oct‐09

Nov‐09

Dec‐09

Jan‐10

Feb‐10

Mar‐10

Apr‐10

Number of children involved in MARAC per month

Source: MARAC administrative records: Powys CC

KEY POINTS

The number of children involved per month in Powys family cases taken to Multi Agency Risk Assessment Conferences (MARAC) has fluctuated between 0 in May 2008 and 12 in April 2010, peaking at 31 in August 2009.

The average number of children involved in MARAC cases was 5.6 per month in the year ending April 2009, rising to 11.4 per month in the year ending April 2010.


10

ISSUE F2 Domestic abuse

NARRATIVE Domestic abuse is an enduring concern in Powys impacting on all family members and not solely on the direct victims of abuse. Reporting rates are known to be significantly lower than prevalence.


The incidence rate of domestic abuse reports in Powys declined from 4.1 per thousand adults in 2008 to 3.7 in 2010, remaining lower than the average for the Dyfed Powys Police area, where the rates are declining or steady in all four counties. See graph F2 b

The number of callers per year from landline telephones in Powys1 to the Wales Domestic Abuse Helpline has fallen slightly overall from 92 in 2007/08 to 85 in 2009/10. See graph F2 c

According to the British Crime Survey the prevalence of domestic abuse in England and Wales has declined from 6% of adults aged 16 to 59 self reporting as victims of domestic abuse in 2004/05 to 4.6% in 2009/10. See graph F2 d

Powys family referrals to the Independent Domestic Violence Advisor Service fluctuated between 8 and 19 a month in the monitoring period from November 2008 and March 2010.

1 excludes telephones in the Neath Exchange area eg Ystradgynlais


11


F2 a Incidence rates: reported domestic abuse incidents per 1000 adults (Aged 16+) in the Dyfed Powys Police area 2008-2010

4.13.8 3.7

4.6

3.4 3.4

8.0

5.9

4.4

9.5

7.2 7.2

2008 2009 2010

Powys: DA/1000 pop: 16+

Ceredigion: DA/1000 pop: 16+

Carmarthenshire: DA/1000 pop: 16+

Pembrokeshire: DA/1000 pop: 16+

Dyfed Powys: DA/1000 pop: 16+

Source: Dyfed Powys Police Reported Domestic Abuse incidents, WAG statsWales, 2008-based population projections © Crown Copyright NOTE: mid year estimates of population should be used for monitoring purposes, when available (1 year time lag)

KEY POINTS

The incidence rate of domestic abuse reports in Powys declined from 4.1 per thousand adults in 2008 to 3.7 in 2010, remaining lower than the average for the Dyfed Powys Police area, where the rates are declining or steady in all four counties.


12

F2 b Number of calls to Wales Domestic Abuse Helpline from Powys land-line telephone 2007/08 to 2009/10

0

20

40

60

80

100

2007/08 callers 2008/09callers 2009/10 callers

Llangammarch Wells (01591)

Knighton (01547)

Hay‐on‐Wye (01497)

Builth Wells (01982)

Welshpool (01938)

Machynlleth (01654)

Llandrindod (01597)

Newtown (01686)

Brecon (01874)

Source: data supplied to Powys CC by Welsh Domestic Abuse Helpline Note: excludes calls from mobile phones which cannot be located by county, and calls from Neath (01639) exchange which covers Ystradgynlais.

KEY POINTS

The number of callers per year from landline telephones in Powys2 to the Wales Domestic Abuse Helpline has fallen slightly overall from 92 in 2007/08 to 85 in 2009/10.

2 excludes telephones in the Neath Exchange area eg Ystradgynlais


13

F2 c Prevalence of Domestic Abuse, England Wales, 2004/5 to 2009/10

6 6.1 6

5.4

4.84.6

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08(1) 2008/09 2009/10

% self reported victims of any domestic abuse among adults aged 16 to 59 in England and Wales, BCS

Source: Home Office British Crime Survey 2009/10 table 3.16 © crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

According to the British Crime Survey the prevalence of domestic abuse in England and Wales has declined from 6% of adults aged 16 to 59 self reporting as victims of domestic abuse in 2004/05 to 4.6% in 2009/10.


14

F2 d Family referrals to Independent Domestic Violence Advisor Service (IDVA), Powys Nov 2008 to March 2010

7 1018 19 18

8

3

22

2821

28

146

26

Nov ‐ Dec 2008

Jan ‐Mar 2009

Apr ‐ Jun 2009

Jul ‐ Sep 2009

Oct ‐ Dec 2009

Jan ‐Mar 2010

other Risk

High Risk

Very High Risk

Source data supplied to PCC by IDVA Note: first period represents 2 months, other periods = 3 months

KEY POINTS

Powys family referrals to the Independent Domestic Violence Advisor Service fluctuated between 8 and 19 a month in the monitoring period from November 2008 and March 2010.


15

ISSUE F3 Vulnerable babies

NARRATIVE Babies of teenage mothers and low birth weight babies tend to have poorer health outcomes, and higher risks of illness and death in their early years. Babies of teenage mothers are also at risk of long term educational, social and economic disadvantage.


The rate of conceptions among by women aged under 18 fell from 37 conceptions per 1000 women aged 15 to 17 in Powys 1998 to 27 per 1000 in 2005, but then rose to 38 per 1000 in 2007. (Wales 55 per 1000 in 1998, 45 per 1000 in 2007) See graph F3 b

The percentage of all live-born infants with stated birth weight whose birth weight was under 2.5 kg has fluctuated from 7.1% in 1996 to 6.5% in 2007, (Wales 6.9% in 1996, 7.3% in 2007).


16


F3 a Teenage conception rates per 1000 women aged 15 to 17; Powys and Wales,1998 to 2007

5551

4846 46 46 45 44 45 45

37

32 30 2933 31 31

2732

38

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Wales: conceptions by women aged under 18, per 1000 aged 15‐17

Powys: conceptions by women aged under 18, per 1000 aged 15‐17

Source: WAG Statswales: ONS Vital statistics © Crown Copyright NOTE: at the time of publishing, the 2002-2007 rates were about to be revised by ONS in line with the 2010 publication of revised Mid year Estimates of Population

KEY POINTS

The rate of conceptions among by women aged under 18 fell from 37 conceptions per 1000 women aged 15 to 17 in Powys 1998 to 27 per 1000 in 2005, but then rose to 38 per 1000 in 2007. (Wales 55 per 1000 in 1998, 45 per 1000 in 2007)


17

F3 b Percentage of live born infants with stated birth weight whose birth weight was under 2.5 kg, Powys, Wales, 1996-2007

6.9 77.2

7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.26.8

7.3 7.37.1

5.15.4

7.2

6.7 6.86.4

6.26.5

7

6.16.5

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Wales % of live births with wieght <2.5 kgm Powys: % of live births with weight <2.5kgm

Source: WAG Health Statistics Analysis Unit, ONS Vital Statistics © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of all live-born infants with stated birth weight whose birth weight was under 2.5 kg has fluctuated from 7.1% in 1996 to 6.5% in 2007, (Wales 6.9% in 1996, 7.3% in 2007).


18

ISSUE F4 Looked-after children

NARRATIVE Evidence shows that “looked-after children”, that is children in the Care Of Local Authorities (COLA) are likely to have poorer attachment, educational and physical and mental health outcomes than their peers. They are also more likely to be involved in crime or substance misuse than young people not placed in care.


The total number of children in need being looked after by Powys County Council rose from 105 in 2003 to 145 in 2010. See graph F4 b

The percentage of looked-after children health assessments carried out within timescales rose form 68% in 2008-09 to 85% in 2009-10 (Wales 81% 2008-09, 82% 2009-10).


19

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS F4 (was H11)

F4 a Numbers of children in need looked after by Powys County Council, 2003 to 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

children starting to be looked after by Powys CC: in need due to abuse or neglect

children starting to be looked after by Powys CC: in need due to family in acute stresschildren starting to be looked after by Powys CC: in need due to other causes

total children looked after by Powys CC

Source: WAG Looked After Children counts, © Crown Copyright Notes: 31st March of each year, rounded to nearest 5

KEY POINTS

The total number of children in need being looked after by Powys County Council rose from 105 in 2003 to 145 in 2010.


20

F4 b Percentage of looked after children health assessments carried out within timescales

68

8581 82

2008‐09 2009‐10

Powys: % of looked after children health assessments carried out within timescales

Wales: % of looked after children health assessments carried out within timescales

Source: WAG Looked After Children statistics © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of looked-after children health assessments carried out within timescales rose form 68% in 2008-09 to 85% in 2009-10 (Wales 81% 2008-09, 82% 2009-10).


21

Footnote: issues for research Issue: Vulnerable Families Narrative: Further evidence on vulnerable families has been suggested, and may be available from in-house administrative databases, as follows. Measures:

o Number of domestic incidents affecting parental ability to care adequately for children (PACAC)

o Number of families provided with “Families at Barnardos” service Issue: Vulnerable Babies Narrative: Although low, infant mortality rates in Wales are higher than average for Western Europe. Rates per county have to be treated with caution, owing to the low numbers. Measures: Infant mortality rates, averaged over a number of years can be calculated from National Statistics

HEALTH JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/03/2011

1

Contents

ISSUE H1 Physical activity...........................................................................2

ISSUE H2 Diet..............................................................................................5

ISSUE H3 Dugs, alcohol and tobacco..........................................................8

ISSUE H4 Mental health and emotional well being ....................................13

ISSUE H5 Long term illness .......................................................................15

ISSUE H6 Physical and mental health perceptions....................................22

ISSUE H7 Extreme old age........................................................................25

ISSUE H8 Physical and sensory disabilities...............................................29


Key






2

ISSUE H1 Physical activity

NARRATIVE Physical activity is important for health and well being, it can delay the effects of ageing, and enable people to live fulfilling and independent lives for longer. The effects of lack of exercise and a sedentary life style tend to be cumulative with the greatest impacts experienced later in life.

KEY POINTS See graph H1 a

The percentage of adults eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day has declined from 45% in the period 2004 to 2006 to 39% in 2008/09, according to the Welsh Health Survey, (Wales 42% in 2004-2006, 36% in 2008/09). See graph H1 b

The percentage of Powys adults (aged 16 and over) who do at least 30 minutes of at least moderate intensity physical activity on five or more days a week increased from 35% over the period 2004 to 2006 to 39% in 2008/09 according to the Welsh Health Survey (Wales 30% in 2004/06, 29% in 2008/09).


3

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H 1 a Under 17 swimming rates (school holidays), Powys and Wales 2004-05 to 2009-10

164 161 155 150 163 151

284 289 282267 260 255

2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10

Wales: swims in school holidays per 100 people under 17 per year

Powys: swims in school holidays per 100 people under 17 per year

Source: WAG Free Swimming initiative monitoring: Data Unit Wales © Crown Copyright Note: Includes free and paid swims; paid swims can include visitor children from outside Powys

KEY POINTS

Swims taken in the school holidays in Powys1 per year declined from 284 swims per 100 children aged under 17 in 2004-05 to 255 per 100 in 2009-10 (Wales 164 swims per 100 in 2004-05 to 1151 swims per 100 in 2009-10).

1 free swims and paid swims: Paid swims can include visiting children from out side the county.


4

H1 b Adults reporting meeting physical activity guidelines in Welsh Health Surveys 2004 - 2009.2

35%33%

37%39%

30% 30% 30% 29%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Powys: % adults aged 16+ who reported meeting physical activity guidelines

Wales: % adults aged 16+ who reported meeting physical activity guidelines

Source: WAG statistical directorate: Welsh Health Survey © Crown Copyright

The percentage of Powys adults (aged 16 and over) who do at least 30 minutes of at least moderate intensity physical activity on five or more days a week increased from 35% over the period 2004 to 2006 to 39% in 2008/09 according to the Welsh Health Survey (Wales 30% in 2004/06, 29% in 2008/09).

2 Guidelines recommend adults do at least 30 minutes of at least moderate intensity physical activity on five or more days a week. Respondents were asked to include physical activity which is part of their job.


5

ISSUE H2 Diet

NARRATIVE A healthy balanced and varied diet is vital for good health and helps reduce the risk of illness including cardiovascular disease, strokes, and cancer. In addition, people eating a balanced diet are less likely to be overweight.


The percentage of adults eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day has declined from 45% in the period 2004 to 2006 to 39% in 2008/09, according to the Welsh Health Survey, (Wales 42% in 2004-2006, 36% in 2008/09). See graph H2 b

The percentage of Powys adults with obesity reduced slightly from 17% in the period 2004-2006 to 16% in 2008/09 (Wales 19% in 2004-2006, 21% in 2008/09).


6

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H2 a percentage of adults eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day, Powys and Wales, 2004-06 to 2008/09

45%

49%

39% 39%42%

44%

36% 36%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Powys: % of adults who reported eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables the prevous day

Wales: % of adults who reported eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables the prevous day

Source: WAG Welsh Health Surveys 2004 to 2009 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of adults eating five or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day has declined from 45% in the period 2004 to 2006 to 39% in 2008/09, according to the Welsh Health Survey, (Wales 42% in 2004-2006, 36% in 2008/09).


7

H2 b Percentage of adults with obesity3, Powys and Wales, 2004/06 to 2008/09

19%20%

21% 21%

17%16%

15%16%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults with obesity Powys: % of adults with obesity


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults with obesity reduced slightly from 17% in the period 2004-2006 to 16% in 2008/09 (Wales 19% in 2004-2006, 21% in 2008/09).

3 Obesity defined as Reported Body Mass Index (BMI) of 25+. BMI is calculated as weight (kg) divided by squared height (m2).


8

ISSUE H3 Dugs, alcohol and tobacco

NARRATIVE Drugs including tobacco and alcohol adversely affect individual health and wellbeing and impact on family members and the community. The effects include ‘passive smoking’, domestic abuse and other forms of violence against people, property crime, dangerous driving and anti social behaviour.


The percentage of Powys adults that smoke daily or occasionally reduced from 25% in the period 2004-2006 to 18% in 2007/08 but then rose to 22% in 2008/09 (Wales 27% in 2004-2006, 24% in 2008/09). See graph H3 b

The percentage of Powys adults that ‘binge drink’ reduced slightly from 27% in 2007/08 to 25% in 2008/09, (Wales 28% in 2007/08 and 2008/09). See graph H3 c

The incidence rate of Powys people presenting to treatment services for alcohol misuse rose from 279 per 100,000 population in 2008/9 to 331 per 100,000 in 2009/10, (Wales 386 per 100,000 in 2008/09, 371 per 100,000 in 2009/10). See graph H3 d

The incidence rate of Powys people presenting to treatment services for drug misuse rose from 162 per 100,000 population in 2008/9 to 189 per 100,000 in 2009/10, (Wales 275 per 100,000 in 2008/09, 278 per 100,000 in 2009/10).


9

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H3 a Percentage of adults that smoke daily or occasionally, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

27%25% 24% 24%25%

22%

18%

22%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % adults who reported smoking daily or occasionally

Powys: % adults who reported smoking daily or ocasionally


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults that smoke daily or occasionally reduced from 25% in the period 2004-2006 to 18% in 2007/08 but then rose to 22% in 2008/09 (Wales 27% in 2004-2006, 24% in 2008/09).


10

H3 b Percentage of adults that ‘binge drink’4, Powys and Wales, 2007/08 to 2008/09

28% 28%27%25%

2007/08 2008/09

Wales:: % of adults who reported binge drinking on at least one day in the previous week

Powys: % of adults who reported binge drinking on at least one day in the previous week

Source: WAG Welsh Health Surveys 2004 to 2009 © Crown Copyright Note: earlier results have been omitted owing to discontinuity prior to 2008 when the question wording changed

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults that ‘binge drink’ reduced slightly from 27% in 2007/08 to 25% in 2008/09, (Wales 28% in 2007/08 and 2008/09).

4 In response to a question in the Welsh Health Survey about the most units drunk on any one day in the last seven days. Binge drinking means men drinking more than 8 units a day and women drinking more than 6 units. Based on all adults (drinkers and non-drinkers).


11

H3 c Incidence rates of people presenting to treatment services for alcohol misuse, Powys and Wales, 2008/09 and 2009/10

386 371

279

331

2008/09 2009/10

Wales: Estimated incidence rate ‐people presenting to treatment services for alcohol misuse per 100k pop.

Powys: Estimated incidence rate ‐ people presenting to treatment services for alcohol misuse per 100k pop.

Source: WAG Welsh Database for Substance Misuse, © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The incidence rate of Powys people presenting to treatment services for alcohol misuse rose from 279 per 100,000 population in 2008/9 to 331 per 100,000 in 2009/10, (Wales 386 per 100,000 in 2008/09, 371 per 100,000 in 2009/10).


12

H3 d Incidence rates of people presenting to treatment services for drug misuse, Powys and Wales, 2008/09 and 2009/10

275 278

162189

2008/09 2009/10

Wales: Estimated incidence rate ‐ people presenting to treatment services for drug misuse per 100k pop.

Powys: Estimated incidence rate ‐ people presenting to treatment services for drug misuse per 100k pop.

Source: WAG Welsh Database for Substance Misuse, © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The incidence rate of Powys people presenting to treatment services for drug misuse rose from 162 per 100,000 population in 2008/9 to 189 per 100,000 in 2009/10, (Wales 275 per 100,000 in 2008/09, 278 per 100,000 in 2009/10).


13

ISSUE H4 Mental health and emotional well being

NARRATIVE Mental health and emotional well being are influenced by a wide range of physiological, social, economic and environmental factors and mental health problems vary enormously from the mild and transitory to chronic mental illness. People experiencing such health problems represent a vulnerable group in society who are at risk of social isolation.


The Welsh Health Survey found that the percentage of Powys adults being treated for mental illness has fluctuated between 7 and 8% from 2004/06 to 2008/09 (Wales 9% in 2004/06, 10% in 2008/09).


14

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H4 a Percentage of adults being treated for a mental illness, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

9% 9% 9%

10%

7%

8%

7% 7%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for any mental Illness

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for any mental Illness


KEY POINTS

The Welsh Health Survey found that the percentage of Powys adults being treated for mental illness has fluctuated between 7 and 8% from 2004/06 to 2008/09 (Wales 9% in 2004/06, 10% in 2008/09).


15

ISSUE H5 Long term illness

NARRATIVE Today the burden of disease mainly rests on the old and has shifted to non-communicable diseases and chronic ill-health conditions. Chronic ill-health conditions are often life-long and limiting in terms of quality of life and have been highlighted as a cause or contributory factor in a large proportion of emergency hospital admissions.


The 2001 census counted 24,800 Powys people that had a long-term illness that limited their lifestyle, representing 20% of the total population (Wales 23%).

48% of the Powys people that had a long-term illness that limited their lifestyle, were aged 65 and over, (Wales 42%). See graph H5 b

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for high blood pressure has risen from 16% in the period 2004/06 to 18% in 2008/09, (Wales 19% in 2004/06, 20% in 2008/09). See graph H5 c

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for respiratory illness has fluctuated between 11% and 13% in the period 2004/06 to 2008/09, (Wales 14% in 2004/06, 13% in 2008/09). See graph H5 d

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for arthritis has fluctuated between 10% and 11% in the period 2004/06 to 2008/09, (Wales 14% in 2004/06, 13% in 2008/09). See graph H5 e

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for heart conditions other than high blood pressure has fallen from 9% in the period 2004/06 to 7% in 2008/09, (Wales 9% from 2004/06, to 2008/09). See graph H5 f

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for diabetes has risen slightly from 5% in the period 2004/06 to 6% in 2008/09, (Wales 6% from 2004/06 to 2008/09).


16

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H5 a Counts of people with limiting long term illness by age group, Powys, 2001 Census

163

338

336

348

309

499

652

907

1,037

1,436

2,005

2,342

2,480

2,590

2,724

2,774

2,026

1,207

580

0 to 4

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

20 to 24

25 to 29

30 to 34

35 to 39

40 to 44

45 to 49

50 to 54

55 to 59

60 to 64

65 to 69

70 to 74

75 to 79

80 to 84

85 to 89

90 and over

Powys: limiting long term illness, 2001 Census count by age group

Source: ONS 2001 census standard table 16 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The 2001 census counted 24,800 Powys people that had a long-term illness that limited their lifestyle, representing 20% of the total population (Wales 23%).

48% of the Powys people that had a long-term illness that limited their lifestyle, were aged 65 and over, (Wales 42%).


17

H5 b Percentage of adults being treated for high blood pressure, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

19%20%

19%20%

16% 16%17%

18%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for high blood pressure

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for high blood pressure


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for high blood pressure has risen from 16% in the period 2004/06 to 18% in 2008/09, (Wales 19% in 2004/06, 20% in 2008/09).


18

H5 c Percentage of adults being treated for respiratory illness, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

14% 14% 14%13%

11%

13%

11% 11%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for any respiratory illness

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for any respiratory illness


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for respiratory illness has fluctuated between 11% and 13% in the period 2004/06 to 2008/09, (Wales 14% in 2004/06, 13% in 2008/09).


19

H5 d Percentage of adults being treated for arthritis, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

14%13% 13% 13%

10%11%

10% 10%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for arthritis

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for arthritis


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for arthritis has fluctuated between 10% and 11% in the period 2004/06 to 2008/09, (Wales 14% in 2004/06, 13% in 2008/09).


20

H5 e Percentage of adults being treated for heart conditions other than high blood pressure, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

9% 9% 9% 9%9% 9%

8%

7%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for any heart condition excluding high blood pressure

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for any heart condition excluding high blood pressure


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for heart conditions other than high blood pressure has fallen from 9% in the period 2004/06 to 7% in 2008/09, (Wales 9% from 2004/06, to 2008/09).


21

H5 f Percentage of adults being treated for diabetes, Powys and Wales, 2004-2006 to 2008/09

6% 6% 6% 6%

5% 5% 5%

6%

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: % of adults reporting treatment for diabetes

Powys: % of adults reporting treatment for diabetes


KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults being treated for diabetes has risen slightly from 5% in the period 2004/06 to 6% in 2008/09, (Wales 6% from 2004/06 to 2008/09).


22

ISSUE H6 Physical and mental health perceptions

NARRATIVE The individual’s perception of their personal physical and mental health is a vital component of their overall well being, and an indicator of their likely need for support or health-care.


In the Welsh Health surveys from 2004/06 to 2008/09, the average Powys adult score in the self-assessment of physical health fluctuated around 50 (on a scale of 0 worst to 100 best) (Wales 49). See graph H6 b

In the Welsh Health Surveys, the average Powys adult score in the self-assessment of mental health rose slightly from 51 in 2004/06 to 51.6 in 2008/09 (on a scale of 0 worst to 100 best) (Wales 49.7 in 2004/06 to 49.9 in 2008/09).


23

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H6 a Self assessed physical health status scores5 from Welsh Health Survey, Powys and Wales, 2004/06 to 2008/09

48.848.9 48.9

48.8

50.1

49.6 49.649.7

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: Physical component summary score Powys: Physical component summary score


KEY POINTS

In the Welsh Health surveys from 2004/06 to 2008/09, the average Powys adult score in the self-assessment of physical health fluctuated around 50 (on a scale of 0 worst to 100 best) (Wales 49).

5 Summary score for physical and mental health status calculated from answers to

standard health survey question set SF-36 (higher score means better health)


24

H6 b Self assessed mental health status scores6 from Welsh Health Survey, Powys and Wales, 2004/06 to 2008/09

49.749.9 49.9 49.9

51

51.8

52.2

51.6

2004/06 2005/07 2007/08 2008/09

Wales: Mental component summary score Powys: Mental component summary score


KEY POINTS

In the Welsh Health Surveys, the average Powys adult score in the self-assessment of mental health rose slightly from 51 in 2004/06 to 51.6 in 2008/09 (on a scale of 0 worst to 100 best) (Wales 49.7 in 2004/06 to 49.9 in 2008/09).

6 Summary score for physical and mental health status calculated from answers to

standard health survey question set SF-36 (higher score means better health)


25

ISSUE H7 Extreme old age

NARRATIVE With increasing life expectancy, more people in Britain are reaching extreme old age and needing nursing care at home or in residential accommodation.


The population of Powys aged 85 and over has increased from 3,020 in 2001 to 4,100 in 2009. See graph H7 b

The percentage of the Powys population aged 85 and over has increased from 2.4% in 2001 to 3.1% in 2009 (Wales 2.0% in 2001, 2.5% in 2009). See graph H7 c

The expected years of life for a female born in Powys increased from 79.8 in 1991/93 (Wales 78.8) to 82.7 in 2006/08 (Wales 81.4).

The expected years of life for a male born in Powys increased from 74.2 in 1991/93 (Wales 73.3) to 79.3 in 2006/08 (Wales 77).


26

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H7 a Numbers of extreme elderly (aged 85 plus), Powys 2001 to 2009

1.98 1.98 1.96 2.06 2.20 2.37 2.49 2.71 2.78

1.04 1.09 1.11 1.131.20

1.201.25

1.25 1.32

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys population aged 90+ (thousands)

Powys population aged 85 to 89 (thousands)

Source: ONS mid year estimates of population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The population of Powys aged 85 and over has increased from 3,020 in 2001 to 4,100 in 2009.


27

H7 b Percentages of extreme elderly (aged 85 plus), Powys and Wales, 2001 to 2009

1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%0.9%

0.9%1.0%

0.9% 1.0%

1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%0.7%

0.7%0.7% 0.7% 0.8%

2001 2001 2002 2002 2003 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009

Wales: % population aged 90+ Wales: % aged 85 to 89

Powys: % population aged 90+ Powys: % aged 85 to 89

Source: ONS mid year estimates of population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of the Powys population aged 85 and over has increased from 2.4% in 2001 to 3.1% in 2009 (Wales 2.0% in 2001, 2.5% in 2009).


28

H7 c Life expectancy at birth, Powys and Wales, 1991/93 and 2006/08

73.3

77

74.2

79.378.8

81.479.8

82.7

1991‐93 2006‐08

Wales: Life expectancy: Males Powys: Life expectancy: Males

Wales: Life Expectancy: Females Powys: Life Expectancy: Females

Source: WAG Health Statistics and Analysis Unit, ©Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The expected years of life for a female born in Powys increased from 79.8 in 1991/93 (Wales 78.8) to 82.7 in 2006/08 (Wales 81.4).

The expected years of life for a male born in Powys increased from 74.2 in 1991/93 (Wales 73.3) to 79.3 in 2006/08 (Wales 77).


29

ISSUE H8 Physical and sensory disabilities

NARRATIVE The term physical/sensory disability covers visual, hearing and physical impairments “Many people with physical and sensory impairments live completely independently, however disability can sometimes necessitate increased need for informal help and health care and long-term care needs and costs.” 7 People with physical disabilities can be vulnerable to social isolation, workplace discrimination and financial disadvantage. “Although not an inevitable consequence of ageing, increasing age is commonly associated with increasing disability and loss of independence, with functional impairments such as loss of mobility, sight and hearing.” 8


Over all age groups, there were 55 people registered with sight impairment per 10,000 in Powys in 2009/10 (Wales 54 per 10,000).

The incidence rates of registered sight impairment among children and working age adults were the same in Powys as in Wales, but the incidence rate among those aged 65 and over was lower in Powys at 189 per 10,000 (Wales 219 per 10,000). See graph H8 b

The incidence rate of registered physical disability was 499 persons per 10,000 over all age groups in Powys in 2009/10 (Wales 158 per 10,000).

The incidence rate of registered physical disability among children was the same in Powys as in Wales, but among the working age group it was more than three times as much (Powys 250 per 10,000, Wales 72 per 10,000) and among the age group of 65 and over it was more than twice as much (Powys 1579 per 10,000, Wales 617 per 10,000).

7 Disability Discrimination Act 1995. Chapter 50. London: HMSO; 1995. 8 Welsh Assembly Government 2006. National Service Framework for Older People in Wales.


30

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS H8 a Incidence of registered sight impairment by age group, Powys and Wales, 2009/10

720

219

54

620

189

55

pop aged under 18 aged 18 ‐ 64 aged 65 & over Total population

Wales sight impaired or severely sight impaired : incidence per 10,000 in age group

Powys sight impaired or severely sight impaired : incidence per 10,000 in age group

Source: WAG, Personal Social Services Register of Physically/Sensory Disabled Persons © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Over all age groups, there were 55 people registered with sight impairment per 10,000 in Powys in 2009/10 (Wales 54 per 10,000).

The incidence rates of registered sight impairment among children and working age adults were the same in Powys as in Wales, but the incidence rate among those aged 65 and over was lower in Powys at 189 per 10,000 (Wales 219 per 10,000).


31

H8 b Incidence of registered physical disability by age group, Powys and Wales, 2009/10

872

617

158

7

250

1579

499

pop aged under 18 aged 18 ‐ 64 aged 65 & over Total population

Wales: physical disability : incidence per 10,000 in age group

Powys: physical disability : incidence per 10,000 in age group

Source: WAG, Personal Social Services Register of Physically/Sensory Disabled Persons © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The incidence rate of registered physical disability was 499 persons per 10,000 over all age groups in Powys in 2009/10 (Wales 158 per 10,000).

The incidence rate of registered physical disability among children was the same in Powys as in Wales, but among the working age group it was more than three times as much (Powys 250 per 10,000, Wales 72 per 10,000) and among the age group of 65 and over it was more than twice as much (Powys 1579 per 10,000, Wales 617 per 10,000).


32


Issue: Play Narrative: Play significantly enhances the health and well being of children and young people. It encourages personal development, social education, and helps to keep children and young people engaged in learning of all kinds. When asked, children identify that play provision is the most important service to them. The following measures have been proposed to be included in future editions, where comparable data from Wales are available Measures:

o Accessibility of parks and other open spaces o Provision of fee-based and free activities o Provision of organised activities for pre-school aged children o Provision of organised activities for primary school aged children o Provision of organised activities for secondary school aged pupils o Provision of sessions by Play Rangers and attendance counts

Issue: Sexual health Narrative: The continuing provision of education on safe sex and access to sexual health advice are essential to maintain the generally good levels of sexual health in Powys. The following measures are proposed to be included in the next edition of the needs assessment if possible. Measures:

o prevalence of Sexually transmitted Infections o Number of abortions o Prevalence of blood-borne viruses o Contraception services take-up

Issue: Immunisation rates Narrative: Preventative medical and health care services, such as immunisation have historically been of greater value than ‘curative’ services in advancing population health and reducing health inequalities. A comparison between Powys and Wales in uptake of the following immunisation programmes will be included in the next edition. Measures: Uptake rates of immunisation for Flu, Diphtheria, Tetanus, Pertussis (Whooping Cough), Polio, Hib infection, Measels, Mumps, Rubella, Pneumococcal meningitis, Bacteraemia, Pneumonia and Otitis media.

HOUSING JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/3/2011

1

CONTENTS

ISSUE HS1 Housing quality .........................................................................2

ISSUE HS2 Housing need ...........................................................................7

ISSUE HS3 Affordable housing..................................................................13

ISSUE HS4 Homelessness ........................................................................16

ISSUE HS5 Fuel poverty............................................................................19


KEY






2

ISSUE HS1 Housing quality

NARRATIVE The links between housing conditions, health and life chances are well known. Poor housing quality impacts negatively on people’s safety, physical and mental health. In particular, poor housing is associated with respiratory problems, anxiety and depression.

KEY POINTS See graph HS1 a

24 of the 75 Electoral Divisions in Powys were among the worst 20% of areas for housing quality in the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2000. See graph HS1 b

A 2004 survey commissioned by Powys County Council concluded that a fifth (11,900) of the private sector dwellings in Powys required major repairs, over 7,000 of them being among the 200,600 which were built pre-1919. See graph HS1 c

The 2004 survey commissioned by Powys County Council concluded that only 1 in a thousand private sector dwellings would meet the Welsh Housing Quality Standard if it were applicable to private housing stock.

Only 9% of private sector dwellings met the WHQS SAP1 ratings in Powys in 2004.

Insulation of private sector dwellings was found to be poor overall in the Powys 2004 survey, with 53% meeting the WHQS standard for hot water tank insulation, 26% for loft insulation and 21% for water pipe insulation.

Only 21% of Powys private sector dwellings met the WHQS standard for smoke detection equipment in the 2004 survey. See graph HS1 d

Only 22% of Welsh social sector housing passed the primary element of the WHQS for adequate loft insulation, and only 25% for adequate heating in the 2004 Living In Wales Property Survey.

1 SAP rating: – Standard Assessment Procedure using information on appliances and insulation to profile energy efficiency, giving a score between 1 and 100


3

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS HS1 a Housing quality as measured by the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) Housing Domain, Wales Electoral Divisions, 2000

© Crown Copyright.All rights reserved 100025371 2010

Source: Housing Domain, WIMD 2000, © WAG

KEY POINTS

24 of the 75 Electoral Divisions in Powys were among the worst 20% of areas for housing quality in the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2000.

WIMD2000 Housing domain

least deprived 20% Edivs

most deprived 20% Edivs


4

HS1 b Requirement for major repairs on private sector dwellings, by age of dwelling, Powys, 2004

13431

2852

5854

6443

5086

12650

7188

835

1518

867

687

727

pre 1919

1919 to 1944

1945 to 1964

1965 to 1974

1975 to 1980

post 1980

no major repairs required

major repairs required

Source: table 19: Powys Private Sector House Condition survey 2004 © Powys CC

KEY POINTS

A 2004 survey commissioned by Powys County Council concluded that a fifth (11,900) of the private sector dwellings in Powys required major repairs, over 7,000 of them being among the 200,600 which were built pre-1919.


5

HS1 c Assessment of Powys private dwelling stock against the Welsh Housing Quality Standard (WHQS), 2004

99.6%

99.6%

90.9%

90.3%

90.1%

83.5%

82.8%

80.2%

64.1%

52.7%

25.9%

20.9%

20.8%

8.9%

0.1%

Fire Equipment

Means Of Escape From Fire

Kitchen Age

Statutory Standards

Heating Efficiency

Repair Condition

Bathroom Age

Electrical Condition

Dwelling Security

Hot Water Tank Insulation

Loft Insulation

Smoke Detection

Water Pipe Insulation

SAP Rating Requirement

Overall

% of dwellings compliant with WHGS requirements

Source table 30: Powys Private Sector House Condition survey 2004 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The 2004 survey commissioned by Powys County Council concluded that only 1 in a thousand private sector dwellings would meet the Welsh Housing Quality Standard if it were applicable to private housing stock.

Only 9% of private sector dwellings met the WHQS SAP2 ratings in Powys in 2004.

Insulation of private sector dwellings was found to be poor overall in the Powys 2004 survey, with 53% meeting the WHQS standard for hot water tank insulation, 26% for loft insulation and 21% for water pipe insulation.

Only 21% of Powys private sector dwellings met the WHQS standard for smoke detection equipment in the 2004 survey.



6

HS1 d Public sector housing stock in Wales meeting primary elements of Welsh Housing Quality Standard, 2004

62.7%

59.4%

37.5%

33.6%

33.0%

24.7%

21.8%

smoke detectors

hot water tank insulation

thermal efficiency of …

security

shower as well as bath

adequate heating

loft insulation

"% of social sector dwellings passing primary element of WHQS

Source: 2004 Living in Wales Property Survey, table 2, revised, pub 2008

KEY POINTS

Only 22% of Welsh social sector housing passed the primary element of the WHQS for adequate loft insulation, and only 25% for adequate heating in the 2004 Living In Wales Property Survey.


7

ISSUE HS2 Housing need

NARRATIVE The Powys population has been growing due to in-migration since the 1970’s. Every age group including children gains more from in-migration than it loses due to out-migration, with the notable exception of the 18 to 21 year olds (more of whom leave than arrive, for reasons of higher education and employment). This population increase, combined with decreasing household size, brings an even larger increase in the number of households every year. In Powys as in the whole UK, the housing needs of the population are changing rapidly due to the age of the population bulge of people born in the decade after World War Two. This large cohort will inevitably drive an increase in need for small accessible dwellings, close to services, with adaptations for age-related disability. “With spiralling budgets for home adaptations, social care and the wider costs associated with inaccessible housing, and an increasingly demanding, active and independent older generation, the need to recognise and account for the link between ageing and disability when building new homes has never been clearer.”3 At the same time there will be a decrease in the need for larger dwellings suitable for families because there were fewer people born twenty to thirty years ago than in the post World War Two era. Numerically, there are now sufficient large dwellings in the county to meet future needs, if they can be maintained and improved, and fully occupied by families.

3 “Housing the Baby Boom Generation” joint seminar, Policy Exchange and the Disability Rights Commission 2007


8


In 2008-09 Powys gained an estimated 110 additional residents aged 0 to 15, 200 aged 25 to 44, 260 aged 45 to 64 and 30 additional residents aged 65 plus from net in-migration.

Powys lost an estimated 290 residents aged 16 to 24 from net out-migration in 2008-09. See graph HS2 b

The number of households in Powys increased from 46,700 in 1991 to 59,500 in 2009, an average increase of 670 households a year. See graph HS2 c

The number of households with only one or two persons is projected to rise from 41,800 (71% of all households) in 2008 to 49,200 (75% of all households) by 2016.

Conversely the numbers of households with 3 or more persons is projected to fall from 17,200 (29% of all households) in 2008 to 16,100 (25% of all households) by 2016. See graph HS2 d

The 2001 Census showed that only 3.2% of Powys households were living in overcrowded dwellings with at least one room too few for the household type (Wales 4.4%).

In the 2001 Census, 62.1% of Powys households were living in under-occupied dwellings, with at least 2 more rooms than actually needed for the occupying household (Wales 56.4%).


9

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS HS2 a Net migration by age group between Powys and England and Wales (positive = into Powys), 2001-02 to 2008-09

250

220

190

170

170

200

100

30

700

730

740

540

490

590

560

260

380

570

520

370

270

300

260

220

‐600

‐480

‐540

‐440

‐490

‐460

‐450

‐290

320

360

400

290

310

200

280

110

2001‐2002

2002‐2003

2003‐2004

2004‐2005

2005‐2006

2006‐2007

2007‐2008

2008‐2009

Net migration, under 16

Net migration, 16 to 24



Net migration, 65+

Source: ONS estimates of migration flows, based on data from GP registers and Higher Education Statistics Agency © Crown Copyright

In 2008-09 Powys gained an estimated 110 additional residents aged 0 to 15, 200 aged 25 to 44, 260 aged 45 to 64 and 30 additional residents aged 65 plus from net in-migration.

Powys lost an estimated 290 residents aged 16 to 24 from net out-migration in 2008-09.


10

HS2 b Estimated number of households, Powys 1991 to 2009

46.7

47.4

48.1

48.7

49.3

50.5

51.2

52.0

52.6

53.3

53.9

54.6

55.4

56.2

56.9

57.5

58.3

59.0

59.5

estimate of Powys households (thousands)

Source: ONS mid year household estimates, published by WAG on StatsWales

KEY POINTS

The number of households in Powys increased from 46,700 in 1991 to 59,500 in 2009, an average increase of 670 households a year.


11

HS2 c 2008-based Household projections, by number of persons in household, Powys 2008 to 2016

19.4

19.9

20.4

20.9

21.4

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

22.4

22.9

23.3

23.7

24.1

24.5

24.9

25.3

25.7

17.2

17.1

16.9

16.8

16.6

16.5

16.3

16.2

16.1

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

1 person households (thousands) 2 person households (thousands)

3+ person households (thousands)

Source: WAG 2008-based sub-national Household projections © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The number of households with only one or two persons is projected to rise from 41,800 (71% of all households) in 2008 to 49,200 (75% of all households) by 2016.

Conversely the numbers of households with 3 or more persons is projected to fall from 17,200 (29% of all households) in 2008 to 16,100 (25% of all households) by 2016.


12

HS2 d Occupancy ratings of Powys households, 2001 Census

62.1% 56.4%

23.0%24.7%

11.7% 14.5%

3.2% 4.4%

Powys Wales

Occupancy Rating ‐1 or less

Occupancy Rating 0

Occupancy Rating +1

Occupancy Rating +2 or more

Source: 2001 ONS Census of Population Standard table 53 © Crown Copyright Occupancy rating +n = n rooms in excess, -n=n rooms too few

KEY POINTS

The 2001 Census showed that only 3.2% of Powys households were living in overcrowded dwellings with at least one room too few for the household type (Wales 4.4%).

In the 2001 Census, 62.1% of Powys households were living in under-occupied dwellings, with at least 2 more rooms than actually needed for the occupying household (Wales 56.4%).


13

ISSUE HS3 Affordable housing

NARRATIVE Housing affordability is an enduring and complex problem for the Powys population and labour market. House-prices are high for Wales but lower than in England. Powys villages and hamlets are affordable and attractive downsizing destinations for in-migrant older working households with equity in property in England. Wages for local jobs are very low in Powys, especially in the tourism and agricultural sectors. This puts rural Powys house-prices out of range of the local waged workforce with no equity, driving them to either move into the Powys towns for rented accommodation or out of the county for higher paid work. The lack of affordable houses combined with the net loss of population in the university age group (see issue H2) impacts most heavily on farming areas of Powys undermining the agricultural economy, traditional community cohesion and family support networks.


In 2009, the mean price paid for a house in Powys was £152,400, (Wales £120,700).

The mean gross annual wage for a full time job in Powys in 2009 was £22,348, (Wales £26,230). See graph HS3 b

The mean average price of a house sold in Powys in 2009 was 6.82 times the mean annual gross wages for a full time job in Powys (Wales 4.6).


14

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS HS3 a average house prices and annual wages for full-time jobs, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

£20,447

£21,209

£21,499

£21,495

£22,415

£22,348

£132,635

£148,852

£155,702

£167,503

£167,130

£152,365

£22,751

£23,587

£24,037

£24,518

£25,690

£26,230

£112,177

£123,691

£130,521

£139,086

£133,195

£120,701

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys wages Powys house prices Wales wages Wales house prices

source: mean house sales prices Land Registry, monthly house sales, mean gross annual wages for full time workers, workplace based, ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In 2009, the mean price paid for a house in Powys was £152,400, (Wales £120,700).

The mean gross annual wage for a full time job in Powys in 2009 was £22,348, (Wales £26,230).


15

HS3 b Housing affordability ratio of mean average house sales price to mean annual wage for full time employment, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

6.497.02 7.24

7.797.46

6.82

4.935.24 5.43 5.67

5.184.60

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys Wales

source: mean house sales prices Land Registry, monthly house sales, mean gross annual wages for full time workers, workplace based, ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The mean average price of a house sold in Powys in 2009 was 6.82 times the mean annual gross wages for a full time job in Powys (Wales 4.6).


16

ISSUE HS4 Homelessness

NARRATIVE Security of housing tenure is an important determinant of health because enforced mobility and poor living conditions impact on people’s mental health causing anxiety and emotional distress.


Quarterly additions of households to the homeless register (as measured by the number of households that have applied for assistance and been deemed eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need) have fluctuated in the last decade from 37 households in Q1-2000, to 48 in Q1 20010, reaching a peak of 155 in Q4-2003. See graph HS4 b

Homelessness, as measured by the number of homeless households in Powys being provided with temporary accommodation, has increased from 28 households at the end of Q1-2000, peaking at 368 at the end of Q4 2004, and since then fluctuating to reach 126 at the end of Q1 2010.


17


HS4 a Number of homeless households accepted as eligible4, unintentionally homeless and in priority need per quarter, Powys Q1-2000 to Q1-20010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q1 2000

Q3 2000

Q1 2001

Q3 2001

Q1 2002

Q3 2002

Q1 2003

Q3 2003

Q1 2004

Q3 2004

Q1 2005

Q3 2005

Q1 2006

Q3 2006

Q1 2007

Q3 2007

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Powys households deeemed eligible for assistance, unintentionally homeless and in priority need

Source: Local Government Data Unit up to Q3 2009, WAG from Q4 2009 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Quarterly additions of households to the homeless register (as measured by the number of households that have applied for assistance and been deemed eligible, unintentionally homeless and in priority need) have fluctuated in the last decade from 37 households in Q1-2000, to 48 in Q1 20010, reaching a peak of 155 in Q4-2003.

4 Accepted as eligible for Powys CC assistance under part VII of the housing act 1996


18

HS4 b Number of homeless households in temporary accommodation, Powys Q1-2000 to Q1-2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Q1 2000

Q3 2000

Q1 2001

Q3 2001

Q1 2002

Q3 2002

Q1 2003

Q3 2003

Q1 2004

Q3 2004

Q1 2005

Q3 2005

Q1 2006

Q3 2006

Q1 2007

Q3 2007

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Powys: Homeless households in temporary accommodation at the end of the quarter

Source: Local Government Data Unit up to Q3 2009, WAG from Q4 2009 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Homelessness, as measured by the number of homeless households in Powys being provided with temporary accommodation, has increased from 28 households at the end of Q1-2000, peaking at 368 at the end of Q4 2004, and since then fluctuating to reach 126 at the end of Q1 2010.


19

ISSUE HS5 Fuel poverty

NARRATIVE A household is said to be in fuel poverty if it needs to spend more than 10% of its income on fuel to maintain a satisfactory heating regime (usually 21 degrees for the main living area, and 18 degrees for other occupied rooms). The health risks of damp and insufficient heat in winter are most severe for babies, the elderly and the infirm. In order to keep their housing warm and dry, low-income families are increasingly falling into fuel poverty owing to rising energy prices. The older housing stock in rural Powys is often the most expensive to heat, being more exposed to the elements, difficult to insulate, draught-proof and damp-proof, and lacking access to mains gas.


On a scale of 1 (worst) to 100 (best) the average private sector dwelling in Powys had an energy efficiency SAP5 rating of 46 in 2004 (UK average 51). See graph HS5 b

The average SAP ratings for newly built dwellings in the first quarter of 2010 in Wales were 83 for maisonettes, 80 for houses, 79 for flats and 76 for bungalows. See graph HS5 c

The average consumption of energy by Powys homes decreased from 29.9 Kilowatt hours (KWh) per person per day in 2005 to 28.1 KWh per person per day in 2008, excluding transport (Wales 28.0 in 2005, 25.8 in 2008).

In 2008 Powys homes consumed 9% more energy in KWh per person per day than Welsh homes, excluding transport.



20

See graph HS5 d

In 2008 the average domestic consumption of petroleum products in Powys homes (including oil for heating but excluding transport) was 11.0 KWh per person per day (Wales 3.1 KWh per person per day).

The average domestic consumption of mains gas in Powys homes in 2008 was 9.0 KWh per person per day, reflecting the limited availability of mains gas in the county (Wales 16.7 KWh per person per day). See graph HS5 e

UK Domestic fuel prices which were gradually rising in the period from 1980 to 2000 have all risen sharply in the last decade, and gas has more than doubled in price. Heating oil prices have been the most erratic, reflecting global market fluctuations. See graph HS5 f

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using solid fuel as their main form of heating has risen from 39% in 2004 to 48% in 2008.

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using oil as their main form of heating has risen from 21% in 2004 to 47% in 2008.

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using electricity as their main form of heating has risen from 29% in 2004 to 39% in 2008.


21

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS HS5 a Average energy efficiency (SAP rating) by date of construction, Powys private sector dwellings: 2004

36

45 47 4952

59

pre ‐1919 1919 ‐ 1944 1945 ‐ 1964 1965 ‐ 1974 1975‐ 1980 post 1980

AVERAGE SAP RATING

Source: Table 28 Powys Private sector house condition survey 2004

KEY POINTS

On a scale of 1 (worst) to 100 (best) the average private sector dwelling in Powys had an energy efficiency SAP6 rating of 46 in 2004 (UK average 51).



22

HS5 b Average energy efficiency (SAP rating) of new dwellings, by type; Wales Q4-2008 to Q1-2010

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1

House Bungalow Flat Maisonette

SOURCE: DCLG house building statistics quarterly © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The average SAP ratings for newly built dwellings in the first quarter of 2010 in Wales were 83 for maisonettes, 80 for houses, 79 for flats and 76 for bungalows.


23

HS5 c Energy consumption7 in the home, Kilowatt hours (KWh) per person per day: Powys and Wales, 2005 to 2008

28.0 27.626.2 25.8

29.9 29.927.9 28.1

2005 2006 2007 2008

Wales: average domestic energy consumption KWh /person/day

Powys: average domestic energy consumption KWh /person/day

Source: DECC, sub-national energy consumption statistics © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The average consumption of energy by Powys homes decreased from 29.9 Kilowatt hours (KWh) per person per day in 2005 to 28.1 KWh per person per day in 2008, excluding transport (Wales 28.0 in 2005, 25.8 in 2008).

In 2008 Powys homes consumed 9% more energy in KWh per person per day than Welsh homes, excluding transport.

7 Excludes transport


24

HS5 d domestic energy consumption8 by fuel type, KWh per person per day: Powys and Wales, 2008

1.2

3.1

16.7

4.9

2.5

11.0

9.0

5.7

Coal and manufactured solid

fuels

Petroleum products Natural gas Electricity

WALES: 2008, Domestic consumption KWh /person/day

POWYS: 2008, Domestic consumption KWh /person/day

Source: DECC, sub-national energy consumption statistics © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In 2008 the average domestic consumption of petroleum products in Powys homes (including oil for heating but excluding transport) was 11.0 KWh per person per day (Wales 3.1 KWh per person per day).

The average domestic consumption of mains gas in Powys homes in 2008 was 9.0 KWh per person per day, reflecting the limited availability of mains gas in the county (Wales 16.7 KWh per person per day).

8 Excludes transport


25

HS5 e Fuel price rises in the UK domestic sector, 1980 to 2009 (Indexed: 2005=100)

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Electricity

Gas

coal and smokeless fuels

heating oils

Source: ONS DECC fuel components of Retail Price Index © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

UK Domestic fuel prices which were gradually rising in the period from 1980 to 2000 have all risen sharply in the last decade, and gas has more than doubled in price. Heating oil prices have been the most erratic, reflecting global market fluctuations.


26

HS5 f Percentage of fuel poor households by main type of fuel used for heating, Wales, 2004 and 2008

39

21

29

711

48 47

39

2226

households with SOLID FUEL as main type of

heating

households with OIL as main type

of heating

households with ELECTRICITY as main type of

heating

households with GAS as main type

of heating

all households

Wales: % of households in fuel poverty 2004 Wales: % of households in fuel poverty 2008

Source: WAG Living In Wales surveys 2004 and 2008 © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using solid fuel as their main form of heating has risen from 39% in 2004 to 48% in 2008.

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using oil as their main form of heating has risen from 21% in 2004 to 47% in 2008.

The percentage of fuel poor households among all households in Wales using electricity as their main form of heating has risen from 29% in 2004 to 39% in 2008.


27


Issue: Housing Quality Narrative: The Welsh Housing Quality Standard was introduced in 2002 and sets the standards for new build in the private sector as well as all social sector housing. The last all-Wales housing quality survey was in 2008. The measure below has been proposed as an outcome measure but would require sufficient resourcing to carry out a housing quality sample survey on Powys housing.

Measures: Percentage of housing in Powys meeting Welsh Housing Quality Standard, by sector.

Issue: Housing accessibility standards and adaptations Narrative: The Lifetime Homes standard is a set of 16 design criteria that provide a model for building accessible and adaptable homes. The Welsh Assembly Government require the Lifetime Homes standard in their funded developments. The measures below would require sufficient resourcing to carry out a housing quality sample survey on Powys housing. Measures: Percentage of housing in Powys meeting Lifetime Homes standard, by sector Percentage of housing in Powys with disability adaptations (eg handrails) fitted, by sector

Issue: Hidden homeless / concealed households Narrative: Hidden Homeless or Concealed households are people living with another household that wish to move out and have their own home but cannot find suitable affordable housing. Measures: Counts of concealed households can be found from local and national housing needs surveys

Issue: Home energy conservation Narrative: Home energy conservation improvements, such as draught proofing, and roofs, wall and floor insulation are particularly important for the older housing stock in Powys. If resources were available a housing quality sample survey on Powys housing could measure the extent of such improvements on Powys housing. Insulation grant take-up could be monitored annually Measures: Percentage of homes with insulation up to modern standards, by sector Numbers of dwellings improved with energy conservation grant funding, and estimates of energy reductions achieved, by sector


28

Issue: Differential fuel prices Narrative: Mains gas is the cheapest fuel in pence per unit KWh, but is not available in many parts of Powys. The price of different fuels for domestic consumption is being tracked by the DECC, but only figures for gas and electricity have as yet been published. (Wales 2010: domestic electricity average 13.83 pence per KWh, domestic gas average 3.74 pence per KWh) A DECC statistician was contacted and stated that in future they hope to provide prices per unit for the other fuels Measures: The average price in pence per KWh of electricity, mains gas, coal, manufactured sold fuels, and petroleum products to domestic consumers in Wales

Issue: Characteristics of fuel poor households Narrative: The Living in Wales survey comprised a household survey for each year from 2004 to 2008 with additional property surveys in 2004 and 2008. The 2004 and 2008 surveys were used to study fuel poverty in Wales, see “Living in Wales 2008: Fuel Poverty “ SDR 205/2010 published 26.11.2010. While the report does not give county level statistics, it showed that 26% of all households in Wales were in fuel poverty in 2008; The fuel poor households of Wales included 36% of all households in private rented accommodation 47% of all households in dwellings built pre 1850 42% of all pensioner households 31% of all households with someone long-term sick or disabled 42% of all rural households Measures: The numbers of fuel poor households in Powys and their characteristics could be modelled from the 2004 and 2008 Living in Wales surveys and requested as an output from the future National Surveys of Wales

NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/03/2011

1

Contents

ISSUE NER1 Carbon emissions ..................................................................2

ISSUE NER2 Pollution ...............................................................................10

ISSUE NER3 Waste management .............................................................14

ISSUE NER4 Fly-tipping ............................................................................19

FOOTNOTE Issues for research ................................................................21

Key






2

ISSUE NER1 Carbon emissions

NARRATIVE “Our climate is changing. There is now a clear scientific case that this change is being brought about by human activity. Unchecked climate change is one of the most serious threats the world faces because it disturbs the pattern of rainfall, sunshine, winds and currents in the oceans. It threatens the basic elements of life for people and environments around the world, including access to water, food production, health and use of the land. Urgent and sustained action to cut emissions is needed globally to avoid the worst impacts of climate change in the future.”1 The UK and EU define a dangerous level of climate change as being an average global temperature rise of 2°C rise above pre-industrial levels. This temperature rise is linked to the total quantity of greenhouse gases mainly CO2 in the atmosphere measured in parts per million by volume (ppmv). Cutting carbon emissions is a key component in tackling climate change and the Welsh Assembly Government has set targets to:-

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3% per year from 2011 in areas of devolved competence, against a baseline of average emissions between 2006-10

Achieve at least a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Wales by 2020 against a 1990 baseline

The 3% target will include all ‘direct’ greenhouse gas emissions in Wales except those from heavy industry and power generation, but including emissions from electricity use in Wales by end-user.

1 The Welsh Assembly Government Climate Change Strategy for Wales (October 2010)


3

KEY POINTS See graph NER1 a

The global mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise and reached 386 ppmv in 2009. See graph NER1 b

Gross annual CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 11.05 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 10.65 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 3.7% over two years (Wales 11.93 tonnes per person per year 2005, 11.8 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 1.0% over two years).

The annual industrial CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 3.33 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 3.13 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 6% over two years (Wales 6.47 tonnes per person per year 2005, 6.49 tonnes per person per year 2007, an increase of 0.3% over two years).

The annual domestic CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 2.70 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.57 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 5.3% over two years (Wales 2.53 tonnes per person per year 2005, 2.4 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 5.3% over two years).

The annual road transport CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell slightly from 2.73 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.71 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of only 0.7% over two years (Wales 2.31 tonnes per person per year 2005, 2.3 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 0.2% over two years).

The annual Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 2.29 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.23 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 2.2% over two years (Wales 0.614 tonnes per person per year 2005, 0.610 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 0.6% over two years).


4

See graph NER1 c

Carbon dioxide removal (sequestration) due to LULUFC has declined in Powys from 98 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005 to 97 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, representing a decline in sequestration of 1.1% over two years, (Wales 103 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005, 100 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, decline of 2.9% over two years).

The net carbon dioxide sequestration (removal minus emission) due to LULUFC has declined in Powys from 40.9 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005 to 40.6 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, representing a decline in sequestration of 0.8% over two years, (Wales 16 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005, 13 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, decline of 19.8% over two years). See graph NER1 d

The carbon efficiency of the Powys economy has improved from net emission of 553 tonnes of carbon dioxide per £million of GVA (CO2t/£m GVA pa) in 2005, to net emission of 512 CO2t/£m GVA pa being emitted in 2007 (Wales 815, UK 506 CO2t/£m GVA pa in 2005, Wales 74, UK 446 CO2t/£m GVA pa in 2007).


5

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS NER1 a. Global mean of CO2 in the atmosphere parts per million

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

mean global CO2 (parts per million)

Source: NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory: Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI)

KEY POINTS

The global mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere continues to rise and reached 386 ppmv in 2009.


6

NER 1b. Annual carbon dioxide emissions per capita: industry, domestic, road transport; LULUCF2, t/person/year, Powys and Wales 2005 to 2007

6.47 6.54 6.49

2.53 2.55 2.40

2.31 2.28 2.30

0.61 0.62 0.61

3.33 3.30 3.13

2.70 2.73 2.57

2.73 2.70 2.71

2.29 2.30 2.23

‐

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Wales 2005

Powys 2005

Wales 2006

Powys 2006

Wales 2007

Powys 2007

Powys LULUCF: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Powys road transport: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Powys domestic: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Powys industry: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Wales LULUCF: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Wales road transport: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Wales domestic: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Wales industry: emissions CO2 t/person/year

Sources: DECC Local Authority carbon dioxide emissions © Crown Copyright ONS mid year estimates of population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Gross annual CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 11.05 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 10.65 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 3.7% over two years (Wales 11.93 tonnes per person per year 2005, 11.8 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 1.0% over two years).

The annual industrial CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 3.33 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 3.13 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 6% over two years (Wales 6.47 tonnes per person per year 2005, 6.49 tonnes per person per year 2007, an increase of 0.3% over two years).

2 LULUCF: Land use, land use change and forestry


7

The annual domestic CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 2.70 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.57 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 5.3% over two years (Wales 2.53 tonnes per person per year 2005, 2.4 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 5.3% over two years).

The annual road transport CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell slightly from 2.73 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.71 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of only 0.7% over two years (Wales 2.31 tonnes per person per year 2005, 2.3 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 0.2% over two years).

The annual Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell from 2.29 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.23 tonnes per person per year in 2007 representing a reduction of 2.2% over two years (Wales 0.614 tonnes per person per year 2005, 0.610 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 0.6% over two years).


8

NER 1 c. Carbon dioxide emission and removal (sequestration) by Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry, tonnes per hectare per year, Powys and Wales, 2005 to 2007

57 58 56

‐98 ‐97 ‐97

87 88 87

‐103 ‐103 ‐100

Wales 2005 Powys 2005 Wales 2006 Powys 2006 Wales 2007 Powys 2007

Wales LULUCF: removals CO2 t/hectare/year Wales LULUCF: emissions CO2 t/hectare/year

Powys LULUCF: removals CO2 t/hectare/year Powys LULUCF: emissions CO2 t/hectare/year

Source: DECC Local Authority carbon dioxide emissions © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Carbon dioxide removal (sequestration) due to LULUFC has declined in Powys from 98 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005 to 97 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, representing a decline in sequestration of 1.1% over two years, (Wales 103 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005, 100 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, decline of 2.9% over two years).

The net carbon dioxide sequestration (removal minus emission) due to LULUFC has declined in Powys from 40.9 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005 to 40.6 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, representing a decline in sequestration of 0.8% over two years, (Wales 16 tonnes per hectare per year in 2005, 13 tonnes per hectare per year in 2007, decline of 19.8% over two years).


9

NER1 d. Carbon efficiency of the economy: Net total CO2 emissions per £million GVA3 per year, Powys, Wales and UK, 2005 to 2007

815 791 747

553 549 512 506 478 446

2005 2006 2007

Wales: net carbon efficiency CO2 t/£m GVA per year

Powys: net carbon efficiency CO2 t/£m GVA per year

UK: net carbon efficiency CO2 t/£m GVA per year

Sources: DECC Local Authority carbon dioxide emissions © Crown Copyright ONS headline GVA series © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The carbon efficiency of the Powys economy has improved from net emission of 553 tonnes of carbon dioxide per £million of GVA (CO2t/£m GVA pa) in 2005, to net emission of 512 CO2t/£m GVA pa being emitted in 2007 (Wales 815, UK 506 CO2t/£m GVA pa in 2005, Wales 74, UK 446 CO2t/£m GVA pa in 2007).

3 GVA : Headline Gross Value Added at current basic prices by region


10

ISSUE NER2 Pollution

NARRATIVE Pollution and contamination of water, land and air have detrimental effects on people’s health and well being, on biodiversity, and on the land-based economy of the county.


The percentage of river water of poor or bad biological quality within Powys has reduced from 2.5% in 2002 to 1.2% in 2008 (Wales 0.8% in 2002 to 0.7% in 2008). See graph NER2 b

The percentage of river water of poor or bad chemical quality within Powys has increased from 0.1% in 2002 to 1.1% in 2008 (Wales 1.7% in 2002 to1.9% in 2008). See graph NER2 c

In the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008, just 9% of Powys population lived in an area which was among the worst 20% of areas for environmental deprivation (Wales 20%).


11


NER2 a Percentage of river water found to be of poor or bad biological4 quality, Powys and Wales, 2002 to 2008

0.8 0.80.9 0.9 0.9

0.7 0.7

2.5

2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

1.2 1.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wales: biological water quality: Poor or Bad (%) Powys: biological water quality: Poor or Bad (%)

Source: WAG stats directorate: Environment Agency general quality assessment (GQA) © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of river water of poor or bad biological quality within Powys has reduced from 2.5% in 2002 to 1.2% in 2008 (Wales 0.8% in 2002 to 0.7% in 2008).

4 The biological testing is based on the monitoring of tiny animals (i.e. macro-invertebrates) which live in or on the bed of the river. The range of species recorded at a site are compared with those that would be expected if it was not polluted, allowing for variations expected in different parts of the country.


12

NER2 b Percentage of river water found to be of poor or bad chemical5 quality, Powys and Wales, 2002 to 2008

1.71.8

1.6

1.81.9 1.9 1.9

0.1 0.1 0.1

11.1 1.1 1.1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wales: chemical water quality: Poor or Bad (%) Powys: chemical water quality: Poor or Bad (%)

Source: WAG stats directorate: Environment Agency general quality assessment (GQA) © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of river water of poor or bad chemical quality within Powys has increased from 0.1% in 2002 to 1.1% in 2008 (Wales 1.7% in 2002 to1.9% in 2008).

5 The biological testing is based on the monitoring of tiny animals (i.e. macro-invertebrates) which live in or on the bed of the river. The range of species recorded at a site are compared with those that would be expected if it was not polluted, allowing for variations expected in different parts of the country.


13

NER2 c Percentage of population living in areas among the worst 20% of areas in Wales for environmental deprivation, WIMD 2008 , Powys and Wales

9%

20%

2008 population living in areas of worst environmental deprivation

Powys Wales

Source: WAG WIMD2008 environmental deprivation domain, revised © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008, just 9% of Powys population lived in an area which was among the worst 20% of areas for environmental deprivation (Wales 20%).


14

ISSUE NER3 Waste management

NARRATIVE Effective waste management can lead to significant environmental benefits as well benefits to the economy and people’s well being. This issue is made more pressing by rising levels of waste, the limited capacity of existing landfill sites, the potential waste to cause air, soil and water pollution, the emission of greenhouse gases, aligned with significant financial penalties for non compliance.


The tonnage of Powys municipal waste recycled or composted increased from 0.09 tonnes per person per year (t/person/year) in 2001 to 0.3 in 2006 but then declined to 0.26 in 2008 (Wales 0.05 t/person/year in 2001, 0.22 t/person/year in 2008). See graph NER3 b

The recycling efficiency of the economy, expressed as tonnes of Powys municipal waste recycled or composted per £million GVA per year (t/£mGVA /year), increased from 8 t /£mGVA /year in 2001 to 23 t/£mGVA/year in 2006 but then declined to 21 t /£mGVA /year in 2007 (Wales 4 t /£mGVA /year in 2001, 14 t /£mGVA /year in 2007). See graph NER3 c

The tonnage of Powys municipal waste per person per year (t/person/year) incinerated or sent to landfill declined from 0.43 in 2003/04 to 0.37 in 2008/09 (Wales 0.51 in 2003/04, 0.36 in 2008/09). See graph NER3 d

The non-salvaged waste efficiency of the Powys economy, expressed as tonnes of municipal waste incinerated or sent to landfill per £million GVA per year (t /£mGVA /year), increased from 8 t /£mGVA /year in 2001 to 23 t/£mGVA/year in 2006 but then declined to 21 t /£mGVA /year in 2007 (Wales 4 t /£mGVA /year in 2001, 14 t /£mGVA /year in 2007).


15


NER3 a Tonnes of municipal waste recycled or composted per person per year, Powys and Wales, 2001 to 2008

0.05

0.08

0.11

0.140.16

0.190.20

0.22

0.09

0.11

0.19

0.260.25

0.300.28

0.26

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wales: municipal waste(exc. abandoned veh) recycled or composted: t/person/year

Powys: municipal waste(exc. abandoned veh) recycled or composted: t/person/year

Source: WAG StatsWales/ WasteFlow system © Crown Copyright Population mid year estimates ONS © Crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The tonnage of Powys municipal waste recycled or composted increased from 0.09 tonnes per person per year (t/person/year) in 2001 to 0.3 in 2006 but then declined to 0.26 in 2008 (Wales 0.05 t/person/year in 2001, 0.22 t/person/year in 2008).


16

NER3 b Recycling efficiency of the economy in tonnes of municipal waste recycled or composted per £million GVA per year, Powys and Wales, 2001 to 2007

46

9

1112

13 14

89

15

2019

2321

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Wales: municipal waste(exc. abandoned veh) recycled or composted: t/£m GVA/year

Powys: municipal waste(exc. abandoned veh) recycled or composted: t/£m GVA/year

Source: WAG StatsWales/ WasteFlow system © Crown Copyright GVA ONS National Accounts © Crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The recycling efficiency of the economy, expressed as tonnes of Powys municipal waste recycled or composted per £million GVA per year (t/£mGVA /year), increased from 8 t /£mGVA /year in 2001 to 23 t/£mGVA/year in 2006 but then declined to 21 t /£mGVA /year in 2007 (Wales 4 t /£mGVA /year in 2001, 14 t /£mGVA /year in 2007).


17

NER3 c Tonnage of municipal waste sent to landfill or incinerated, per person per year, Powys and Wales, 2003/04 to 2008/09

0.51 0.510.48

0.430.40

0.36

0.43

0.53

0.420.41

0.390.37

2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09

Wales: Municipal waste disposed of by landfill and incinerated: t/person/year

Powys: Municipal waste disposed of by landfill and incinerated: t/person/year

Source: WAG StatsWales/ WasteFlow system © Crown Copyright Population mid year estimates ONS © Crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The tonnage of Powys municipal waste per person per year (t/person/year) incinerated or sent to landfill declined from 0.43 in 2003/04 to 0.37 in 2008/09 (Wales 0.51 in 2003/04, 0.36 in 2008/09).


18

NER3 d Non-salvaged waste efficiency of the economy in tonnes of municipal waste incinerated or sent to landfill per £million GVA per year, Powys and Wales, 2001 to 007

40.1438.72

34.89

30.46

26.98

34.15

40.71

32.9631.43

29.39

2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08

Wales: municipal waste disposed of by landfill and incineration: t/£m GVA / year

Powys: municipal waste disposed of by landfill and incineration: t/£m GVA / year

Source: WAG StatsWales/ WasteFlow system © Crown Copyright GVA ONS National Accounts © Crown copyright

KEY POINTS

The non-salvaged waste efficiency of the Powys economy, expressed as tonnes of municipal waste incinerated or sent to landfill per £million GVA per year (t /£mGVA /year), increased from 8 t /£mGVA /year in 2001 to 23 t/£mGVA/year in 2006 but then declined to 21 t /£mGVA /year in 2007 (Wales 4 t /£mGVA /year in 2001, 14 t /£mGVA /year in 2007).


19

ISSUE NER4 Fly-tipping

NARRATIVE Fly-tipping and littering are signal crimes, i.e. they can attract more serious crime into the area. These issues are an enduring concern for the public.


Rates per 1000 population of recorded incidents of fly-tipping increased from 6.6 in 2006/07 to 18.5 in 2008/09, then declined to 15.4 in 2009/10, (Wales 18.5 per 1000 in 2006/07, 16.1 per thousand in 2009/10).


20

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS NER4 a Recorded Fly-tipping incidents per thousand population per year, Powys and Wales, 2006/07 to 2009/10

18.5

20.8

18.5

16.1

6.6

12.1

18.5

15.4

2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10

Wales: flytipping: incidents/thousand population/year

Powys: flytipping: incidents/thousand population/year

Source: WAG Statswales, Flycapture database, Environment Agency © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Rates per 1000 population of recorded incidents of fly-tipping increased from 6.6 in 2006/07 to 18.5 in 2008/09, then declined to 15.4 in 2009/10, (Wales 18.5 per 1000 in 2006/07, 16.1 per thousand in 2009/10).


21

FOOTNOTE Issues for research

Issue: LSB carbon emissions Narrative: The Powys Local Service Board has set itself targets for emission reduction for its non domestic buildings and transport. To achieve these targets will require action by all organisations and individuals. Data is being collected and should be published in the next edition Measures: LSB carbon emissions for 2007/08 (transport and buildings heating, electricity, gas, oil)

Issue: Climate change resilience Narrative: The impacts of climate change, such as flooding, water shortages, transport disruption and health impacts are becoming increasingly evident especially for the elderly. Resilience needs to be built in to minimise the vulnerability of Powys to such events and ensure the county is able to respond effectively. The measures below have been proposed for research. Measures:

o % of households at risk from flooding, Powys and Wales o average temperature per year, global / Wales/ Powys o annual rainfall, Wales and Powys o Environment agency flooding targets and patterns

Issue: Biodiversity and habitat protection Narrative: Biodiversity, which can be defined as the variety of plant and animal life in an area or habitat, is a key indicator of the quality of the natural environment and plays a critical role in sustaining human well-being. Vitally, it is the increasingly unbalanced environment, which is accelerating climate change. Even so, despite many Welsh, European and global reports and conferences hi-lighting the perils of environmental destruction, the 2010 targets for halting biodiversity loss in Wales (as in Europe) have not been achieved. In response to this failure the Welsh Assembly Government is developing a new approach which looks beyond the traditional focus on habitat sites and species protection. This new approach, called the Natural Environment Framework, seeks to better explain the services the environment provides, the so called “natural capital”. Traditionally these services have had little or no commercial value and it is this lack of market value which largely accounts for ecosystem degradation and destruction. There are 186,597 acres (75,500 hectares) of common land in Powys, most of which are in private ownership. The following measures will be included in the next edition as far as possible


22

Measures:

o Number and area of SSSIs6 o Number and area of nature reserves o Common Land habitats o Area of protected/managed upland peat stores o Percentage of farms in agri-environment schemes

o Area of hedgerow ,woodland and wildlife corridors o Pollinating insect counts o Area of habitats that encourage pollinating insects

Issue: Air quality Narrative: air pollution has detrimental effects on people’s health and well being, on biodiversity, and on the land-based economy of the county. The following measures will be published if data becomes available at county level Measures:

o Estimated % of air with poor or bad quality o % of particulates in air

Issue: Street cleanliness Narrative: Fly-tipping and littering are signal crimes, i.e. they can attract more serious crime into the area. Measures: Percentage of highways and relevant land of a high or acceptable standard of cleanliness

Issue: Access to open green spaces Narrative: Access to the countryside or open green spaces for recreation and exercise enhances our experience of the outdoors and our sense of health and well-being. It is key to encouraging improved health as well as awareness of the natural environment we live in. The following measures have been proposed for inclusion in future editions Measures:

o Number of people using open spaces o Area of accessible green recreational space per person

Issue: Natural non-renewable resources Narrative: Natural non-renewable resources (water, minerals etc) are limited in quantity, form the natural capitals on which we depend and need to be managed sustainably so as not to deplete them or deprive future generations of them. We have an obligation to pass on our inherited land and landscape in good condition for future generations. Ecological footprint is a summary comparison of natural non-renewable resources consumed per person compared with the global average.

6 Sites of Special Scientific Interest


23

The following measures will be included in the next edition

Measures: o Ecological footprint , Powys and Wales if available o % of land in Powys deemed poor or very poor for agriculture o % of land which is in National Park, Special Landscape area or other

Protected landscape

Issue: Food security Narrative: As we enter the post Peak Oil era, the cost of transporting food will become more and more costly. The costs of oil based agricultural inputs are also rising. It will be important in the future to produce and distribute as much food as possible locally, to rapidly reduce dependence on fossil fuel inputs and to protect the most vulnerable Powys residents from these impacts. The following measures are proposed for an initial research paper. Measures:

o Food miles ; tonne kilometres per person per year o Food production in Powys, calories per head per year o family expenditure on food in lowest income deciles UK o Food prices (retail shopping basket ) in Powys o number of pupils at Powys Schools in receipt of /eligible for free school

meals, over time o household income o area of publicly owned allotment space per person (Wales, if not

Powys) o percentage of households with access to garden or allotment or food

growing space (Wales, if not Powys) o numbers on waiting list as percentage of number of allotments (Wales,

if not Powys)

SAFETY JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/03/2011

1

Contents

ISSUE S1 Crime rates..................................................................................2

ISSUE S2 Anti social behaviour ...................................................................6

ISSUE S3 Road traffic collisions ..................................................................9

ISSUE S4 Accidents and injuries ...............................................................11

FOOTNOTE: Issues for further research....................................................15

Key






2

ISSUE S1 Crime rates

NARRATIVE Crime rates are relatively low in Powys. Nevertheless, when it occurs, crime has a severe impact on the health and quality of life of victims and on the community.

KEY POINTS See graph S1 a

The overall crime incidence rate in Powys increased from 43 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 55 per 1000 in 2005/06 then decreased to 43 per 1000 in 2009/10 (Wales 101 per 1000 in 2002/03, 74 per 1000 in 2009/20). See graph S1 b

The incidence rate of violent crime in Powys fluctuated from 11.7 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 11.2 per 1000 in 2009/10 with a peak of 16.9 per 1000 in 2005/06, (Wales 19.0 per 1000 in 2002/03, 16.3 per 1000 in 2009/20). See graph S1 c

The property crime incidence rate in Powys increased from 23 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 34 per 1000 in 2004/05 then decreased to 25 per 1000 in 2009/10 (Wales 73 per 1000 in 2002/03, 50 per 1000 in 2009/20).


3


S1 a Overall crime incidence rates per 1000 population, Powys and Wales, 2002/3 to 2009/10

101 9991

87 8782 79

74

43

53 55 55 5246 46 43

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Wales: recorded crimes, (All) per 1000 population

Powys: recorded crimes, (All) per 1000 population

Source: Home Office Local Police Recorded Crime Data © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The overall crime incidence rate in Powys increased from 43 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 55 per 1000 in 2005/06 then decreased to 43 per 1000 in 2009/10 (Wales 101 per 1000 in 2002/03, 74 per 1000 in 2009/20).


4

S1 b Violent crime incidence rates per 1000 population, Powys and Wales, 2002/3 to 2009/10

19.0 18.9 19.0 18.7 18.9

17.516.7 16.3

11.7

14.815.5

16.9

14.3

10.7 11.1 11.2

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Wales: recorded crimes of violence per 1000 population

Powys: recorded crimes of violence per 1000 population


KEY POINTS

The incidence rate of violent crime in Powys fluctuated from 11.7 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 11.2 per 1000 in 2009/10 with a peak of 16.9 per 1000 in 2005/06, (Wales 19.0 per 1000 in 2002/03, 16.3 per 1000 in 2009/20).


5

S1 c Property crime incidence rates per 1000 population, Powys and Wales, 2002/3 to 2009/10

73 72

6562 61

5755

50

23

3034

32 3129 29

25

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Wales: recorded property crimes per 1000 population

Powys: recorded property crimes per 1000 population


KEY POINTS

The property crime incidence rate in Powys increased from 23 per 1000 population in 2002/03 to 34 per 1000 in 2004/05 then decreased to 25 per 1000 in 2009/10 (Wales 73 per 1000 in 2002/03, 50 per 1000 in 2009/20).


6

ISSUE S2 Anti social behaviour

NARRATIVE Anti social behaviour can have a severe impact on health and quality of life, particularly for elderly and vulnerable people and children and can also involve repeat victimisation.


The issue rates of ASBOs in Dyfed-Powys courts fluctuated between 2.4 per 100,000 population in 2003 and 0.4 per 100,000 in 2008 (Wales 2.6 per 100,000 in 2003 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2008, peaking at 8.8 per 100,000 in 2005). See graph S2 b

The number of ASBOs issued in Dyfed -Powys courts per year rose from 12 in 2003 to 15 in 2005, and then fell to 2 in 2008.


7


S2 a Anti Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs) issued by courts per 100,000 population, Dyfed Powys and Wales, 2003 to 2008

2.6

5.0

8.8 8.0

6.6

5.0

2.4

1.6

3.0

1.6 1.6

0.4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Wales: ASBO's per 100,000 population Dyfed‐Powys: ASBO's per 100,000 population

Source: Ministry of Justice Statistics Analytical Services © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The issue rates of ASBOs in Dyfed-Powys courts fluctuated between 2.4 per 100,000 population in 2003 and 0.4 per 100,000 in 2008 (Wales 2.6 per 100,000 in 2003 to 5.0 per 100,000 in 2008, peaking at 8.8 per 100,000 in 2005).


8

S2 b Count of Anti Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs) issued, by courts in Dyfed Powys Criminal Justice System area, 2003 to 2008

12

8

15

8 8

2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Dyfed Powys: number of Anti‐Social Behaviour Orders (ASBOs) issued by courts

Source: Ministry of Justice Statistics Analytical Services © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The number of ASBOs issued in Dyfed -Powys courts per year rose from 12 in 2003 to 15 in 2005, and then fell to 2 in 2008.


9

ISSUE S3 Road traffic collisions

NARRATIVE Powys residents travel longer distances in their daily lives and are more likely involved in road traffic accidents as a result. The Powys roads and landscapes also attract a high number of leisure drivers, especially motor cyclists, at the weekends and on bank holidays. Road traffic accidents harm drivers, passengers other road users and pedestrians. The cost of public services for each fatality on the roads has been estimated at £1.6m.


The number of killed or serious road accident casualties per 100,000 population in Powys fell from127 in 2004 to 98 in 2009 (Wales 63 in 2004, 49 in 2009).

The number of slight road accident casualties per 100,000 population fell from 512in 2004 to 408 in 2009 (Wales 497 in 2004, 366 in 2009).


10

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS S3 a Annual incidence rates of road accident casualties per 100,000 population, by severity, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

127 119 110 109 95 98

512440

519 480415 408

63 54 56 57 56 49

497 465 460 440 394 366

2004 2004 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009

Wales Powys Wales Powys Wales Powys Wales Powys Wales Powys Wales Powys

Wales: slight casualties per 100,000 population

Wales: Killed or serious casualties per 100,000 population

Powys: slight casualties per 100,000 population

Powys: Killed or serious casualties per 100,000 population

Source: DfT: Police STATS19 road traffic accident data © Crown Copyright Population ONS MYE © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The number of killed or serious road accident casualties per 100,000 population in Powys fell from127 in 2004 to 98 in 2009 (Wales 63 in 2004, 49 in 2009).

The number of slight road accident casualties per 100,000 population fell from 512in 2004 to 408 in 2009 (Wales 497 in 2004, 366 in 2009).


11

ISSUE S4 Accidents and injuries

NARRATIVE Accidents and injuries are a major cause of morbidity and mortality and are an important public health problem in Powys.


The number of deaths due to accidents (excluding road accidents) per 10,000 population in Powys fell from 3.3 in 2003 to 2.1 in 2007 (Wales 2.5 in 2003, 2.8 in 2007). See graph S4 b

The proportion of fire incidents that were accidental went up in Powys from 77% in 2002 to 82% in 2006 (Wales 42% in 2002, 49% in 2006) See graph S4 c

The rate of casualties in fire incidents per 100,000 population in Powys fell from 38.5 in 2002 to 13.8 in 2006 (Wales 31.2 in 2002, 23.1 in 2006).


12


S4 a Deaths due to accidents (excluding .road traffic accidents) per 10,000 population, Powys and Wales, 2003 to 2007

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.42.8

3.3

2.8 2.82.5

2.1

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Wales: Deaths caused by Accidents per 10,000 Powys: Deaths caused by Accidents per 10,000

Sources: ONS Vital Statistics Mortality by cause © Crown Copyright ONS MYE Population © Crown Copyright Note: exc. Road accidents

KEY POINTS

The number of deaths due to accidents (excluding road accidents) per 10,000 population in Powys fell from 3.3 in 2003 to 2.1 in 2007 (Wales 2.5 in 2003, 2.8 in 2007).


13

S4 b Percentage of fire incidents that were accidental, Powys and Wales, 2002 to 2006

42% 40%45%

50% 49%

77%81% 78%

84% 82%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Wales % Accidental fire incidents Powys % Accidental fire incidents

Source: ONS Fire and Rescue Service: Fires Attended © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The proportion of fire incidents that were accidental went up in Powys from 77% in 2002 to 82% in 2006 (Wales 42% in 2002, 49% in 2006) .


14

S4 c Rates of casualties in fire incidents per 100,000 population, Powys and Wales, 2002 to 2006

31.228.3 29.1

26.323.1

38.5

18.021.7

11.613.8

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Wales: casualities in fire incidents per 100,000 population

Powys: casualities in fire incidents per 100,000 population

Source: ONS Fire and Rescue Service: Fires Attended © Crown Copyright ONS MYE population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The rate of casualties in fire incidents per 100,000 population in Powys fell from 38.5 in 2002 to 13.8 in 2006 (Wales 31.2 in 2002, 23.1 in 2006).


15

FOOTNOTE: Issues for further research

Issue: perception of crime and safety Narrative: Exaggerated perception and fear of crime is disproportionate to actual crime in Powys, but has a severe impact on health and quality of life, particularly for elderly and vulnerable people and children. The following measures will be included in the next edition where data available at county and national level. Measures:

o confidence in police o fear of crime o perception of crime

Issue: Re-offending Narrative: Re-offending is a cross-cutting issue which impacts on families of both perpetrators and victims. The following measures should be obtainable from the Probation Service for Powys and Wales, for inclusion in the next edition. Measures:

o Re-offending data for adults

o Re-offending data for young people

Issue: Door step crime and rogue trading Narrative: Door step crime and rogue trading is disproportionate to actual crime, but with severe impacts on health and quality of life, particularly for elderly and vulnerable people and children. The following measures are not yet available; Measures: incidents of rogue trading and doorstep crime

Issue: Bullying Narrative: Bullying can cause long term damage to mental emotional and physical health, leading to isolation, depression, withdrawal, self harm and even suicide. The following measure will be included if available at county and regional level. Measure:

Number of children and young people who reported being bullied to Childline

WORK AND INCOME JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/3/2011

1

Contents

ISSUE WI1 Poverty and low income ............................................................2

ISSUE WI2 Indebtedness...........................................................................11

ISSUE WI 3 Wage levels............................................................................15

ISSUE WI4 employment opportunities .......................................................20

ISSUE WI5 Underemployment ...................................................................30

Key






2

ISSUE WI1 Poverty and low income

NARRATIVE Improving income levels will help individuals/families move out of poverty and associated issues Poverty remains the most important wider determinant of health and wellbeing.

KEY POINTS See graph WI1 a

Just 1% of the Powys population in 2009 lived in an area defined in the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008 as among the 10% most Income Deprived areas in Wales and 3% in the 20% most Income Deprived (Wales 10%, 19% respectively). See graph WI1 b

The percentage of pupils eligible for free school meals in Powys fluctuated between 11.1% in 1998/99 and 10.1% in 2009/10 (Wales 20.7% in 1998/99, 17.3% in 2009/10). See graph WI1 c

The estimated percentage of Powys households claiming Council Tax Benefit and Housing Benefit rose from 10.9% in August 2009 to 11.4% in August 2010 (Wales 15.7% August 2009, 16.5% August 2010). See graph WI1 d

. The percentage of Powys children living in workless households fluctuated between 13.0% in 2004 and 12.5% in 2009 (Wales 18.8% in 2004, 19.9% in 2009). See graph WI1 e

The percentage of Powys households with no-one working declined from 19.1% in 2004 to 17.1% in 2007, then rose to 20.2% in 2009 (Wales 21.6% in 2004, 22.9% in 2009).


3

See graph WI1 f

. The percentage of people aged 60 plus in receipt of Pension Credit in Powys rose from in 13% in November 2004 to a peak of 16.5% in November 2005, since when it has fallen very slightly to 15.9% in July 2010 (Wales 18.1% in November 2004, 21.9% in July 2010). See graph WI1 g

. The ONS Regional Accounts give estimates of Gross Disposable Household Income in Powys, which rose from £7,330 per head in 1995 to £13,209 in 2008 (Wales £7754 in 1005, £13,073 in 2008).


4

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS WI1 a Percentage of 2009 population living in the worst areas in Wales for Income Deprivation; Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008, Wales and Powys

10%

19%

29%

39%

49%

1%3%

11%15%

22%

10% most deprived areas in

Wales


Wales


Wales


Wales


Wales

% of Welsh population living in Income Deprived Areas

% of Powys population living in Income Deprived Areas

Source: WAG Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2008, ONS mid 2009 population estimates for Lower Super Output Areas © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Just 1% of the Powys population in 2009 lived in an area defined in the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008 as among the 10% most Income Deprived areas in Wales and 3% in the 20% most Income Deprived (Wales 10%, 19% respectively).


5

WI1 b. Percentage of pupils entitled to free school meals, Powys and Wales, from 1998/99 to 2009/10; all schools

20.720.0

19.518.5

17.5 17.617.0

16.1 16.015.5

16.217.3

11.1 11.410.7 10.3

9.5 9.6 9.6 9.2 9.3 9.0 9.110.1

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

02/03

'03/0 4

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

Wales: % of Pupils entitled To Free School Meals: all schools

Powys: % of Pupils entitled To Free School Meals: all schools

Source: WAG ELLS1 tables, published on StatsWales © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of pupils eligible for free school meals in Powys fluctuated between 11.1% in 1998/99 and 10.1% in 2009/10 (Wales 20.7% in 1998/99, 17.3% in 2009/10).


6

WI1 c. Percentage of households claiming Council Tax Benefit and Housing Benefit, Powys and Wales, August 2009, August 2010

15.7%16.5%

10.9%11.4%

August 2009 August 2010

Wales: estimated % of HH claiming CTB & HB Powys: estimated % of HH claiming CTB & HB

Source: DWP Table 1: Housing Benefit / Council Tax Benefit recipients

KEY POINTS

The estimated percentage of Powys households claiming Council Tax Benefit and Housing Benefit rose from 10.9% in August 2009 to 11.4% in August 2010 (Wales 15.7% August 2009, 16.5% August 2010).


7

WI1 d Percentage of children living in workless households, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

18.8%17.5%

16.9%

18.3%17.2%

19.9%

13.0%

9.9% 9.8%

14.8%

10.4%

12.5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wales:% children living in workless households Powys: % children living in workless households

Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics WAG StatsWales table 7431

KEY POINTS

. The percentage of Powys children living in workless households fluctuated between 13.0% in 2004 and 12.5% in 2009 (Wales 18.8% in 2004, 19.9% in 2009).


8

WI1 e Percentage of households with no-one working, Powys and Wales, 2004 to 2009

21.6% 21.6% 21.1% 21.0% 20.8%

22.9%

19.1% 19.0%17.7% 17.1% 17.4%

20.2%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Wales: % of workless households Powys: % of workless households

Source: Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics WAG StatsWales table 14393

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys households with no-one working declined from 19.1% in 2004 to 17.1% in 2007, then rose to 20.2% in 2009 (Wales 21.6% in 2004, 22.9% in 2009).


9

WI1 f Percentage of people aged 60 plus in receipt of Pension Credit, Powys and Wales November 2004 to July 2010

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

November …

March 2004

July 2004

November …

March 2005

July 2005

November …

March 2006

July 2006

November …

March 2007

July 2007

November …

March 2008

July 2008

November …

March 2009

July 2009

November …

March 2010

Wales % aged 60+ receiving PC

Powys % aged 60 + receiving PC

Source: DWP Pension Credit payments: published on NOMIS, ONS mid year estimates of population, published on StatsWales

KEY POINTS

. The percentage of people aged 60 plus in receipt of Pension Credit in Powys rose from in 13% in November 2004 to a peak of 16.5% in November 2005, since when it has fallen very slightly to 15.9% in July 2010 (Wales 18.1% in November 2004, 21.9% in July 2010).


10

WI1 g Gross Disposable Household Income1 (GDHI) £ per head, Powys, East Wales, West Wales and the Valleys, Wales, UK 1995 to 2008

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

£ per head

Powys

UNITED KINGDOM

East Wales

Wales

West Wales and The Valleys

Source: ONS Regional Accounts: Household Income series

KEY POINTS

. The ONS Regional Accounts give estimates of Gross Disposable Household Income in Powys, which rose from £7,330 per head in 1995 to £13,209 in 2008 (Wales £7754 in 1005, £13,073 in 2008).

1 GDHI is the amount of money that individuals (ie the household sector) have available for spending or saving. This is money left after expenditure associated with income, eg taxes and social contributions, income from property ownership and provision for future pension income. It is calculated gross of any deductions for capital consumption. In other words, it does not take into account reductions in the value of goods such as houses as they get older.


11

ISSUE WI2 Indebtedness

NARRATIVE Rising levels of individual debt can lead to a range of negative impacts on people’s well-being such as losing their home, being made bankrupt, or being forced to find alternative and possibly illegal sources of credit, as well as on their health due to stress and worry.


The incidence of County Court Judgements passed on Powys residents rose from 105 per 10,000 adults aged 16+ in 2003 to 151 per 10,000 in 2005 (Wales 122 per 10,000 in 2003 , 168 per 10,000 in 2005). See graph WI2 b

The incidence rates of personal insolvencies rose in Powys from 7.0 per 10,000 adults in 2000 to 26.3 per 10,000 in 2009 (Wales 6.7 per 10,000 in 2000, 31.8 per 10,000 in 2009). See graph WI2 c

Mortgage possession claim rates per 1000 households in Powys dropped from 2.37 in 2009 to 2.03 in 2010 (Wales 5.10 in 2009 to 3.92 in 2010).


12

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS WI2 a County Court Judgements per 10,000 population, Powys and Wales, 2003 to 2005

122 117

168

105 107

151

2003 2004 2005

Wales:Consumer CCJ's per 10k adult populationPowys: Consumer CCJ's per 10k adult population

Source: Registry Trust Ltd published on ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, adults aged 16+ from ONS mid year estimates

KEY POINTS

The incidence of County Court Judgements passed on Powys residents rose from 105 per 10,000 adults aged 16+ in 2003 to 151 per 10,000 in 2005 (Wales 122 per 10,000 in 2003 , 168 per 10,000 in 2005).


13

W12 b Rates of personal insolvency2 per 10,000 adults aged 16+, Powys and Wales, 2000 to 2009

7.0

4.3 4.8 4.6

7.8

11.2

16.1

20.018.8

26.3

6.7 6.7 7.2 7.28.6

11.9

20.822.2

23.8

31.8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Powys: personal insovencies per 10k adult population

Wales: personal insovencies per 10k adult population

Source: Insolvency Service for England and Wales, Regional Statistics adults aged 16+ from ONS mid year estimates

KEY POINTS

The incidence rates of personal insolvencies rose in Powys from 7.0 per 10,000 adults in 2000 to 26.3 per 10,000 in 2009 (Wales 6.7 per 10,000 in 2000, 31.8 per 10,000 in 2009).

2 Personal insolvencies = total of bankruptcy orders, Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) and Debt Relief Orders)


14

WI2 c Mortgage possession claim rates; Powys, Wales 2010

5.10

3.92

2.372.03

2009 2010

WALES: mortgage possession claims per 1000 h'holds

Powys: mortgage possession claims per 1000 h'holds

Source: Ministry of Justice: Mortgage and Landlord possessions statistics

KEY POINTS

Mortgage possession claim rates per 1000 households in Powys dropped from 2.37 in 2009 to 2.03 in 2010 (Wales 5.10 in 2009 to 3.92 in 2010).


15

ISSUE WI 3 Wage levels

NARRATIVE Low wages in the county impact on poverty, deprivation, housing affordability, and net outward migration of young working adults


The mean gross weekly pay for a full time job in Powys rose from £336.10 in 1998 to £441.40 in 2010 (Wales £348.50 in 1998, £516.00 in 2010). See graph WI3 b

The median gross weekly pay for a full time job in Powys rose from £281.30 in 1998 to £382.30 in 2010 (Wales £308.90 in 1998, £451.10 in 2010). See graph WI3 c

The mean gross weekly pay for a part time job in Powys rose from £88 in 1998 to £170.40 in 2010 (Wales £110.40 in 1998, £181.60 in 2010). See graph WI3 d

The mean gross weekly pay for a part time job in Powys rose from £82.20 in 1998 to £148.60 in 2010 (Wales £94.10 in 1998, £150.10 in 2010).


16


WI3 a Mean wages for full time jobs in Powys, Wales; 1998 to 2010

441.4

516.0

£0

£100

£200

£300

£400

£500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Powys: Full Time Jobs, Mean Gross Weekly pay

Wales: Full Time Jobs, Mean Gross Weekly pay

Source: ONS Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, (workplace based) published on NOMIS

KEY POINTS

The mean gross weekly pay for a full time job in Powys rose from £336.10 in 1998 to £441.40 in 2010 (Wales £348.50 in 1998, £516.00 in 2010).


17

WI3 b Median wages for full time jobs in Powys, Wales; 1998 to 2010

382.3

451.1

£0

£100

£200

£300

£400

£500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Powys: Full Time Jobs, Median Gross Weekly pay

Wales: Full Time Jobs, Median Gross Weekly pay


KEY POINTS

The median gross weekly pay for a full time job in Powys rose from £281.30 in 1998 to £382.30 in 2010 (Wales £308.90 in 1998, £451.10 in 2010).


18

WI3 c Mean wages for part- time jobs in Powys, Wales; 1998 to 2010

£170.40

£181.60

£0

£100

£200

£300

£400

£500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Powys: Part Time Jobs, Mean Gross Weekly pay

Wales: Part Time Jobs, Mean Gross Weekly pay


KEY POINTS

The mean gross weekly pay for a part time job in Powys rose from £88 in 1998 to £170.40 in 2010 (Wales £110.40 in 1998, £181.60 in 2010).


19

WI3 d Median wages for part- time jobs in Powys, Wales; 1998 to 2010

£129.10

£148.60 £150.10

£0

£100

£200

£300

£400

£500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Powys: Part Time Jobs, Median Gross Weekly pay (Incomplete dataset)

Wales: Part Time Jobs, Median Gross Weekly pay


KEY POINTS

The mean gross weekly pay for a part time job in Powys rose from £82.20 in 1998 to £148.60 in 2010 (Wales £94.10 in 1998, £150.10 in 2010).


20

ISSUE WI4 employment opportunities

NARRATIVE Decent work and the means of earning a living are fundamental to community and individual self-respect, as well as the material well-being of households. Unemployment is a major contributor to poverty, deprivation and ill-health, and negatively impacts on housing affordability. Lack of good employment opportunity in the county can also be one of the causes of the net outward migration of young adults.


Just 1.8% of Powys adults in 2009 were living in an area which was among the worst 10% in Wales for Employment Deprivation in the WIMD 2008 Wales 19.1%). See graph WI4 b

The yearly average percentage of adults aged 16 to 64 claiming unemployment benefits in Powys had peaked at 2.6% in 2009, and fell to 2.2% in 2010 (Wales 4.1% in 2009, 3.9% in 2010). See graph WI4 c

The % of young people aged 18 to 24 claiming Job seekers allowance had risen steeply to 7.9% in Powys in December 2009 but fell to 6.5% by December 2010 (Wales 9.0% and 7.9% respectively). See graph WI4 d

25% of Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Powys in December 2010 were usually working in Elementary Occupations, and a further 19% in Sales and Customer Service Occupations (Wales 28% and 21% respectively). See graph WI4 e

In December 2010, 0.5% of the Powys adult population aged 16 to 64 had been claiming unemployment benefits for between 3 and 6 months (Wales 0.8%). See graph WI4 f

In July 2010 37.5% of all vacancies in Powys notified to Job Centre Plus were in the banking, finance and insurance sector (Wales 49.4%). 22.3% were in distribution, hotels and restaurants sector (Wales 15.9%).


21

See graph WI4 g

The Business Register and Employment Survey for 2009 showed that the three largest employment sectors (excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing sector) in Powys by percentage of jobs were Health (17.5%), Manufacturing (13.2%) and Education 13.9%). See graph WI4 h

It is estimated that the % of Powys adults aged 16+ that were out of work and wanting a job rose from 2.5% in the year ending June 2005 to 4.6% in the year ending June 2010 (Wales 4.8% June 2005, 8.1% June 2010).


22

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS WI4 a Percentage of adults living in areas of high Employment Deprivation, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008, Powys, Wales 2009

19.1%

1.8%

Wales Powys

% of adults living in worst 20% of areasfor employment deprivation in Wales

Source: WAG WIMD2008, employment domain, published on Statswales ONS Population estimates, 2009 mye © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

Just 1.8% of Powys adults in 2009 were living in an area which was among the worst 10% in Wales for Employment Deprivation in the WIMD 2008 Wales 19.1%).


23

WI4 b Annual average Job Seekers Allowance (JSA) claimant unemployment rates, Powys and Wales 1992 to 2010

7.1 7.3

6.8

65.7

4.5

3.93.6

3.22.9

2.6 2.52.2 2.2

2.42.2

2.4

4.13.9

4.6

5

4.4

3.9

3.5

2.6 2.5 2.62.3

21.7 1.6 1.5 1.5

1.71.5 1.5

2.6

2.2

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Wales: annual mean % claimants among population aged 16‐64

Powys: annual mean % claimants among population aged 16‐64

Source: Monthly claimant unemployment rates as % of adults aged 16 to 64, mean over calendar year, published by WAG on Statswales

KEY POINTS

The yearly average percentage of adults aged 16 to 64 claiming unemployment benefits in Powys had peaked at 2.6% in 2009, and fell to 2.2% in 2010 (Wales 4.1% in 2009, 3.9% in 2010).


24

WI4 c Youth claimant unemployment, Powys and Wales, December 1992 to December 2010

15.0

14.1

12.512.2

10.6

8.5

7.5

6.3 6.4

5.65.2

4.9 4.8

5.65.3

4.9

7.3

9.0

7.9

11.9

10.7

8.08.5

6.56.1

5.65.9

5.44.8 4.5

5.14.4

5.75.1

4.2

6.2

7.9

6.5

Dec 1992

Dec 1993

Dec 1994

Dec 1995

Dec 1996

Dec 1997

Dec 1998

Dec 1999

Dec 2000

Dec 2001

Dec 2002

Dec 2003

Dec 2004

Dec 2005

Dec 2006

Dec 2007

Dec 2008

Dec 2009

Dec 2010

Wales: % claimants among residents aged 18‐24

Powys: % claimants among residents aged 18‐24

Source: Monthly Claimant unemployment counts as % of adults aged 18 to 24

KEY POINTS

The % of young people aged 18 to 24 claiming Job seekers allowance had risen steeply to 7.9% in Powys in December 2009 but fell to 6.5% by December 2010 (Wales 9.0% and 7.9% respectively).


25

WI4 d Usual occupation of Job Seekers Allowance claimants, Powys and Wales, December 2010

1%

3%

3%

5%

7%

8%

12%

13%

21%

28%

1%

3%

4%

6%

8%

9%

12%

13%

19%

25%

Occupation unknown

Managers and Senior Officials

Professional Occ's

Associate Professional &Technical Occ's

Personal Service Occ's

Administrative and Secretarial Occ's

Skilled Trades Occ's

Process, Plant & Machine Operatives

Sales & Customer Service Occ's

ElementaryOcc's

Powys: % of total JSA claimants

Wales: % of total JSA claimants

Source: monthly claimant unemployment counts, ONS published on NOMIS

KEY POINTS

25% of Job Seekers Allowance claimants in Powys in December 2010 were usually working in Elementary Occupations, and a further 19% in Sales and Customer Service Occupations (Wales 28% and 21% respectively).


26

WI4 e JSA claimants by duration of claim, as percentage of adults aged 16 to 64, December 2010, Powys, Wales

0.2 0.2

0.3 0.3

0.2

0.5

0.8

0.3

0.2

0.1 0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2 0.2 0.2

0.4

0.5

0.1 0.1 0.1

0.0

0.1 0.1

one week or less

over 1 and up to 2

weeks

over 2 and up to 4

weeks

over 4 and up to 6

weeks

over 6 and up to 8

weeks

over 8 and up to 13

weeks

over 13 and up to 26

weeks


weeks


weeks


weeks


weeks


weeks

over 104 weeks

Wales:claimant count by duration, as % of population aged 16 to 65

Powys:claimant count by duration, as % of population aged 16 to 64

Source: monthly claimant unemployment counts, ONS published on NOMIS

KEY POINTS

In December 2010, 0.5% of the Powys adult population aged 16 to 64 had been claiming unemployment benefits for between 3 and 6 months (Wales 0.8%).


27

WI4 f Vacancy notifications to Job Centre Plus by industrial sector, Powys and Wales, July 2010

0.3

1.2

1.9

3.1

6.3

6.6

20.9

22.3

37.5

0.4

2.7

2.5

3.6

3.3

5.2

17.0

15.9

49.4

1 : Agriculture and fishing (SIC A,B)

6 : Transport and communications (SIC I)

4 : Construction (SIC F)

9 : Other services (SIC O,P,Q)

3 : Manufacturing (SIC D)

2 : Energy and water (SIC C,E)

8 : Public administration,education & health (SIC L,M,N)

5 : Distribution, hotels and restaurants (SIC G,H)

7 : Banking, finance and insurance, etc (SIC J,K)

Wales: % of annual notified vacancies by industry

Powys: % of annual notified vacancies by industry

Source: Job Centre Plus monthly notifications of vacancies; published by PNS on NOMIS

KEY POINTS

In July 2010 37.5% of all vacancies in Powys notified to Job Centre Plus were in the banking, finance and insurance sector (Wales 49.4%). 22.3% were in distribution, hotels and restaurants sector (Wales 15.9%).


28

WI4 g Employment by sector (excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing) Powys, Wales, 2009

1.6

13.2

6.4

2.1

3.5

13.5

4.2

8.5

2.3

3.0

1.3

5.1

7.0

8.8

11.8

17.7

4.8

0.9

13.2

6.3

2.5

4.7

13.1

4.6

10.3

1.3

1.2

1.5

6.0

4.8

5.7

13.9

17.5

6.5

2 : Mining, quarrying & utilities (B,D and E)

3 : Manufacturing (C)

4 : Construction (F)

5 : Motor trades (Part G)

6 : Wholesale (Part G)

7 : Retail (Part G)

8 : Transport & storage (inc postal) (H)

9 : Accommodation & food services (I)

10 : Information & communication (J)

11 : Financial & insurance (K)

12 : Property (L)

13 : Professional, scientific & technical (M)

14 : Business administration & support services (N)

15 : Public administration & defence (O)

16 : Education (P)

17 : Health (Q)

18 : Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services …

Powys: 2009 jobs per sector as % of total jobs (exc. agriculture, forestry and fishing)Wales: 2009 jobs per sector as % of total jobs (exc. agriculture, forestry and fishing)

Source: Business Register and Employment Survey (formerly Annual Business Inquiry) published by ONS on NOMIS

KEY POINTS

The Business Register and Employment Survey for 2009 showed that the three largest employment sectors (excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing sector) in Powys by percentage of jobs were Health (17.5%), Manufacturing (13.2%) and Education 13.9%).


29

EW14 h Annual ILO3 unemployment rates among adults aged 16 and over, Powys, Wales, 2005 to 2010

4.85.2 5.5 5.5

7.78.1

2.5 2.43.2

4.1

6.3

4.6

YE 30 Jun 2005 YE 30 Jun 2006 YE 30 Jun 2007 YE 30 Jun 2008 YE 30 Jun 2009 YE 30 Jun 2010

Wales: % unemployed among adults aged 16 +

Powys: % unemployed among adults aged 16 +

Source: Annual Population Survey / Labour Force Survey, published by WAG on StatsWales

KEY POINTS

It is estimated that the % of Powys adults aged 16+ that were out of work and wanting a job rose from 2.5% in the year ending June 2005 to 4.6% in the year ending June 2010 (Wales 4.8% June 2005, 8.1% June 2010).

3 ILO unemployment measure = count of those out of work and wanting a job. (Not necessarily eligible for or claiming means tests Job Seekers Allowance)


30

ISSUE WI5 Underemployment

NARRATIVE Underemployment, in the form of part-time, seasonal and casual work conceals periods of unemployment with all the associated negative impacts on health, material well being, house-hold stability and out-migration of young adults. Part-time, seasonal and casual work is particularly associated with low wages, notably in the agricultural, retail, care provision and tourism sectors. Under employed workers are most vulnerable to economic recession impacts such as sudden lay-offs, and reduction in hours and least protected by employment legislation and union representation.


The percentage of Powys adults aged 16 to 64 that are working part time has increased from 23.0% in 2004/05 to 27.1% in 2009/10 (Wales 24.8% in 2004/05, 26.6% in 2009/10)


31

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS WI5 a Percentage of adults aged 16 to 64 working part time, Powys and Wales 2004/05 to 2009/10

24.826.0 25.4 26.0 25.5

26.6

23.0

27.626.3

25.126.2

27.1

Apr 2004‐Mar 2005 Apr 2005‐Mar 2006 Apr 2006‐Mar 2007 Apr 2007‐Mar 2008 Apr 2008‐Mar 2009 Apr 2009‐Mar 2010

Wales % in employment working part‐time ‐ aged 16‐64

Powys % in employment working part‐time ‐ aged 16‐64

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

The percentage of Powys adults aged 16 to 64 that are working part time has increased from 23.0% in 2004/05 to 27.1% in 2009/10 (Wales 24.8% in 2004/05, 26.6% in 2009/10)

TRANSPORT JOINT NEEDS ASSESSMENT POWYS 2010-2011 Date 31/03/2011

1

Contents

ISSUE T1 Access to services on foot or by public transport ........................2

ISSUE T2 Ambulance response times .........................................................7

ISSUE T3 Affordable transport .....................................................................9

FOOTNOTE: Issues for research ...............................................................11

Key






2

ISSUE T1 Access to services on foot or by public transport

NARRATIVE The inability to access a range of services considered necessary for day to day living is a key determinant of deprivation and has a significant impact on individual's health and well being. Given the geography of the county, this issue is particularly acute in Powys. Rural deprivation research studies have observed that transport is a major issue for the excluded and deprived. 1 In areas which lack both local services and public transport, private transport is a necessity forced upon all households, including those in poverty, for reaching the distant services and workplaces. Further more, significant population groups are not able to drive a car and they are always disadvantaged where there is no public transport; Notably these will include vulnerable groups such as the young, elderly, sick, visually impaired, physically disabled, learning disabled, illiterate, and the carers left at home when the wage earner has left for work in the household car. As lack of public transport is such a major barrier to access to services for the poor and vulnerable the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation measures time taken to access to services by public transport and /or on foot .

1 Young people and transport in rural areas by Pamela Storey and Julia Brannen, published for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation by the National Youth Agency (ISBN 0 86155 234 2) http://www.jrf.org.uk/knowledge/findings/socialpolicy/750.asp Exclusive countryside? Social inclusion and regeneration in rural Britain by Mark Shucksmith, published by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (ISBN 1 85935 056 9) http://www.jrf.org.uk/knowledge/findings/foundations/760.asp


3

KEY POINTS See graph T1 a

In 2009, 84,000 Powys people, equivalent to 64% of the population, were living in an area ranked among the worst 20% of areas in Wales for time taken to reach local services on foot or by bus in WIMD 2008. 23,000 of these were of retirement age or over and 14,400 were children under the age of 16. See graph T1 b

In 2009, 45% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a post office or a primary school on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 51% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a food shop on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 53% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a GP surgery on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 56% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a library on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 60% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach an NHS dentist on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 64% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a leisure centre on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 68% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a secondary school on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 76% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a train station or national bus station on foot or by bus.


4

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS T1 a Population by age band living in best 80% and worst 20% of areas in Wales for access to local services on foot or by bus, Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2008, Powys, 2009

8.714.4

7.2

10.28.4

14.011.1

22.6

12.2

23.0

Powys pop. living in one of the 'best 80%' areas in Wales for access to local services (thousands)

Powys pop. living in one of the 'worst 20%' areas in Wales for access to local services (thousands)

65+ Males, 60+ Females

45‐64 Males, 45‐59 Females

30‐44

16‐29

0‐15

Sources: WAG WIMD 2008, Access to Services domain, © Crown Copyright ONS Lower Super Output Area Mid 2009 Estimates of population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In 2009, 84,000 Powys people, equivalent to 64% of the population, were living in an area ranked among the worst 20% of areas in Wales for time taken to reach local services on foot or by bus in WIMD 2008. 23,000 of these were of retirement age or over and 14,400 were children under the age of 16.


5

T1 b. Percentages of Powys 2009 population living in areas where the average time to reach local services on foot or by public transport exceeds 30 minutes, by service and by journey time band, WIMD 2008

24% 26% 27% 23% 24% 25% 24%28% 27%

21% 19% 21% 26% 26%32% 35%

34% 39%0% 0%3% 4%

6%

3%5%

6%10%

over 2 hours

1 to 2 hours

1/2 to 1 hour

Sources: WAG WIMD 2008, Access to Services domain, © Crown Copyright ONS Lower Super Output Area Mid 2009 Estimates of population © Crown Copyright

KEY POINTS

In 2009, 45% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a post office or a primary school on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 51% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a food shop on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 53% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a GP surgery on foot or by bus.


6

In 2009, 56% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a library on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 60% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach an NHS dentist on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 64% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a leisure centre on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 68% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a secondary school on foot or by bus.

In 2009, 76% of the Powys population live in an area where it takes on average more than half an hour to reach a train station or national bus station on foot or by bus.


7

ISSUE T2 Ambulance response times

NARRATIVE: The current Welsh Assembly Government annual national targets for ambulance response times are as follows2:-

“To maintain a monthly all-Wales average performance of ambulance services with at least:

60% of first responses to Category A calls (immediately life threatening calls) arriving within 8 minutes within each LHB area. In addition, there is also an All Wales target of 65%.

70% of first responses to Category A calls (immediately life threatening calls) arriving within 9 minutes

75% of first responses to Category A calls (immediately life threatening calls) arriving within 10 minutes.”


The percentage of emergency ambulance responses arriving within 8 minutes increased in Powys from 44% in 2006/07 to 60% in 2010/11 (Wales 56% in 2006/07, 65% in 2010/11).

2 NHS Emergency Care standards, Wales http://wales.gov.uk/topics/health/nhswales/performance/emergencycare/?lang=en


8

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS T2 a Percentage of emergency ambulance responses arriving within 8 minutes, Powys and Wales, 2006/07 to 2010/11

56%

62%60%

65% 65%

44%47%

45%48%

60%

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

WALES % of emergency ambulance response arriving within 8 minutes

POWYS % of emergency ambulance response arriving within 8 minutes

Source: Performance of ambulance services provided by the NHS in Wales, published by WAG, Statswales

KEY POINTS

The percentage of emergency ambulance responses arriving within 8 minutes increased in Powys from 44% in 2006/07 to 60% in 2010/11 (Wales 56% in 2006/07, 65% in 2010/11).


9

ISSUE T3 Affordable transport

NARRATIVE Affordable transport is a key issue in rural Powys. An integrated transport system including the provision of a range of affordable transport modes is essential for:-

o facilitating economic development, o ensuring access to services, employment and opportunities, o protecting vulnerable low income residents in remote areas from the

worst effects of oil price rises, o sustaining and improving the quality of community life, o protecting the environment o reducing carbon emissions.


The 2001 census showed that of those who travelled to work in Powys 10% did so on foot, 6% by bus, 2% by bike and less than 1% by train (Wales 11% on foot, 6% by bus, 2% by bike and 1% by train).


10

GRAPHS OF INDICATORS T3 a Percentage of journeys to work, by train, bus, bicycle and on foot Powys and Wales, 2001 Census

10%11%

6%

6%

2%2%0%

1%

Powys % of journeys to work by mode (exc. home workers)

Wales % of journeys to work by mode (exc. home workers)

Train Bicycle Bus, minibus, coach On foot

Source ONS 2001 census, standard table 113 © Crown Copyright,

KEY POINTS

The 2001 census showed that of those who travelled to work in Powys 10% did so on foot, 6% by bus, 2% by bike and less than 1% by train (Wales 11% on foot, 6% by bus, 2% by bike and 1% by train).


11

FOOTNOTE: Issues for research Issue: Affordable transport Narrative: As stated above, affordable transport is a key issue in rural Powys. An integrated transport system including the provision of a range of affordable transport modes is essential. The following measures are being researched and will be included in the next edition if available. Measures:

o number and miles of public transport journeys made per head of population per year

o percentage of Powys residents using car share schemes o take-up of Community Transport schemes o take-up and cost of subsidised public transport schemes o households in (transport) fuel poverty o consumer prices for diesel and petrol

Issue: Carbon footprint Narrative: As shown in the Natural environment needs assessment the annual road transport CO2 emissions per capita from Powys fell by only 0.7% over two years from 2.73 tonnes per person per year in 2005 to 2.71 tonnes per person per year in 2007 (Wales 2.31 tonnes per person per year 2005, 2.3 tonnes per person per year 2007, a reduction of 0.2% over two years). All forms of transport in the county need to be analysed for their carbon emissions, including freight. Measures:

o Annual Domestic CO2 emissions per year: transport o Annual Industrial CO2 emissions per year: freight o Fuel, miles and CO2 used by the LSB fleet vehicles and ‘grey fleet’

(own cars used on duty)

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